InvestmentWiki - User contributions [en]

Automotive Industry:Europe

2025-01-21T19:31:56Z

MagaNH6:

See also: [[Automotive Industry]] | [[Automotive Industry: Current State of EV Sales]] | [[Volkswagen]]

== Contribution ==

* 13.0 million Europeans work in the auto industry (directly and indirectly), accounting for 7% of all EU jobs
* 11.5% of EU manufacturing jobs – some 3.4 million – are in the automotive sector
* Motor vehicles are responsible for €374.6 billion of tax revenue for governments across key European markets
* The automobile industry generates a trade surplus of €79.5 billion for the European Union •
* The turnover generated by the auto industry represents almost 8% of the EU’s GDP
* Investing €58.8 billion in R&D per year, automotive is Europe's largest private contributor to innovation, accounting for 32% of the EU total

== Production ==

=== Passenger Cars ===
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-13 114917.png|center|thumb|556x556px|https://www.acea.auto/figure/eu-passenger-car-production/]]
{| class="wikitable"
!<ref name=":1" />
!2019
!2020
!2021
!2022
!% change
22/21
|-
|Germany
|4,493,922
|3,393,960
|2,946,320
|3,336,116
| +13.2
|-
|Spain
|2,175,909
|1,759,907
|1,598,986
|1,702,641
| +6.5
|-
|Czech Republic
|1,398,996
|1,129,429
|1,095,096
|1,190,160
| +8.7
|-
|Slovakia
|1,072,858
|943,746
|976,947
|964,072
| -1.3
|-
|France
|1,590,636
|869,856
|852,812
|940,690
| +10.3
|-
|Romania
|490,412
|438,107
|420,755
|507,269
| +20.6
|-
|Italy
|548,688
|455,323
|447,673
|476,929
| +6.5
|-
|Hungary
|524,348
|433,601
|416,843
|441,776
| +6.0
|-
|Sweden
|285,709
|245,671
|253,488
|257,446
| +1.6
|-
|Belgium
|247,020
|237,075
|222,105
|235,385
| +6.0
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''14,096,444'''
|'''10,779,146'''
|'''10,055,833'''
|'''10,769,893'''
|'''+7.1'''
|}

==== 2022 ====
{| class="wikitable"
!<ref name=":1" />
!2022
!2021
!% change
22/21
!% share
2022
|-
|'''EUROPE'''
|'''13,142,901'''
|'''13,362,109'''
|'''-1.6'''
|'''19.3'''
|-
|European Union
|10,769,893
|10,055,833
| +7.1
|15.8
|-
|United Kingdom
|764,854
|853,584
| -10.4
|1.1
|-
|Russia
|437,633
|1,343,911
| -67.4
|0.6
|-
|Turkey
|791,522
|788,233
| +0.4
|1.2
|-
|Ukraine
|1,490
|7,342
| -79.7
|0.002
|-
|Others: Europe
|377,509
|313,206
| +20.5
|0.6
|}

== New Car Registrations ==
Historical releases: [[New Car Registrations Europe: 2023]][[File:Screenshot 2023-09-05 130333.png|center|thumb|522x522px|https://www.acea.auto/files/Economic-and-Market-Report_Full-year-2022.pdf]]

{| class="wikitable"
!<ref name=":1">https://www.acea.auto/files/Economic-and-Market-Report_Full-year-2022.pdf</ref>
!2019
!2020
!2021
!2022
!% change
22/21
|-
!Germany
|3,607,258
|2,622,132
|2,622,132
|2,651,357
| +1.1
|-
!France
|2,214,279
|1,650,118
|1,659,003
|1,529,035
| -7.8
|-
!Italy
|1,916,949
|1,381,756
|1,458,032
|1,316,702
| -9.7
|-
!Spain
|1,258,251
|851,210
|859,477
|813,396
| -5.4
|-
!'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''13,028,948'''
|'''9,939,418'''
|'''9,700,089'''
|'''9,255,926'''
|'''-4.6'''
|}
[[File:Imagea.png|center|thumb|981x981px|https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/car-registrations#:~:text=EU%20Car%20Registrations%20Rise%2018.5%25%20in%20May&text=Considering%20the%20first%20five%20months,5.7%20million%20units%20were%20registered]]

==== December 2024 ====
In 2024, new car registrations rose slightly, increasing by 0.8% to around 10.6 million units. Spain continued to show resilience with a solid 7.1% growth rate. In contrast, declines were observed in France (-3.2%), Germany (-1%), and Italy, with a slight drop of 0.5%.

'''Monthly'''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="4" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!December
2024
!December
2023
!% change
24/23
!December
2024
!December
2023
!% change
24/23
!December
2024
!December
2023
!% change
24/23
!December
2024
!December
2023
!% change
24/23
! colspan="2" |December
2024
!December
2023
!% change
24/23
!December
2024
!December
2023
!% change
24/23
!December
2024
!December
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|29,619
|37,355
| -20.7
|24,717
|17,058
| +44.9
|68,939
|48,138
| +43.2
|5,130
|5,014
| +2.3
| colspan="2" |43,683
|56,700
| -23.0
|11,574
|16,739
| -30.9
|183,662
|181,004
| +1.5
|-
|Germany
|33,561
|54,654
| -38.6
|19,103
|17,894
| +6.8
|70,570
|55,687
| +26.7
|1,123
|1,351
| -16.9
| colspan="2" |69,333
|74,894
| -7.4
|31,031
|37,403
| -17.0
|224,721
|241,883
| -7.1
|-
|Italy
|5,807
|6,815
| -14.8
|3,695
|4,434
| -16.7
|42,634
|38,921
| +9.5
|9,830
|10,248
| -4.1
| colspan="2" |30,021
|33,879
| -11.4
|13,799
|16,930
| -18.5
|105,786
|111,227
| -4.9
|-
|Spain
|8,818
|5,896
| +49.6
|6,306
|6,546
| -3.7
|45,180
|27,926
| +61.8
|3,435
|3,062
| +12.2
| colspan="2" |34,140
|29,420
| +16.0
|7,467
|8,922
| -16.3
|105,346
|81,772
| +28.8
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''144,367'''
|'''160,764'''
|'''-10.2'''
|'''75,132'''
|'''71,589'''
|'''+4.9'''
|'''305,922'''
|'''229,909'''
|'''+33.1'''
|'''26,760'''
|'''25,557'''
|'''+4.7'''
| colspan="2" |'''269,260'''
|'''274,093'''
|'''-1.8'''
|'''89,064'''
|'''104,808'''
|'''-15.0'''
|'''910,505'''
|'''866,720'''
|'''+5.1'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''17,598'''
|'''17,439'''
|'''+0.9'''
|'''2,903'''
|'''4,795'''
|'''-39.5'''
|'''9,940'''
|'''7,829'''
|'''+27.0'''
|'''4'''
|'''4'''
|'''+0.0'''
| colspan="2" |'''6,422'''
|'''7,785'''
|'''-17.5'''
|'''2,973'''
|'''2,730'''
|'''+8.9'''
|'''39,840'''
|'''40,582'''
|'''-1.8'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|43,656
|27,841
| +56.8
|12,716
|12,162
| +4.6
|46,292
|41,838
| +10.6
|0
|0
|
| colspan="2" |34,820
|54,360
| -35.9
|3,302
|4,891
| -32.5
|140,786
|141,092
| -0.2
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''205,621'''
|'''206,044'''
|'''-0.2'''
|'''90,751'''
|'''88,546'''
|'''+2.5'''
|'''362,154'''
|'''279,576'''
|'''+29.5'''
|'''26,764'''
|'''25,561'''
|'''+4.7'''
| colspan="2" |'''310,502'''
|'''336,238'''
|'''-7.7'''
|'''95,339'''
|'''112,429'''
|'''-15.2'''
|'''1,091,131'''
|'''1,048,394'''
|'''+4.1'''
|}
'''Year to Date'''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="3" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!Jan-Dec
2024
!Jan-Dec
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Dec
2024
!Jan-Dec
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Dec
2024
!Jan-Dec
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Dec
2024
!Jan-Dec
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Dec
2024
!Jan-Dec
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Dec
2024
!Jan-Dec
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Dec
2024
!Jan-Dec
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|290,614
|298,219
| -2.6
|146,392
|162,950
| -10.2
|588,895
|432,299
| +36.2
|59,805
|67,944
| -12.0
|507,755
|641,582
| -20.9
|124,951
|171,728
| -27.2
|1,718,412
|1,774,722
| -3.2
|-
|Germany
|380,609
|524,219
| -27.4
|191,905
|175,724
| +9.2
|755,493
|664,580
| +13.7
|14,115
|14,845
| -4.9
|991,948
|978,660
| +1.4
|483,261
|486,581
| -0.7
|2,817,331
|2,844,609
| -1.0
|-
|Italy
|65,620
|66,287
| -1.0
|51,792
|68,464
| -24.4
|623,665
|566,387
| +10.1
|146,806
|144,696
| +1.5
|456,052
|447,451
| +1.9
|215,294
|273,866
| -21.4
|1,559,229
|1,567,151
| -0.5
|-
|Spain
|57,374
|51,611
| +11.2
|58,558
|62,165
| -5.8
|392,365
|302,988
| +29.5
|33,521
|26,343
| +27.2
|378,687
|387,609
| -2.3
|96,380
|118,646
| -18.8
|1,016,885
|949,362
| +7.1
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''1,447,934'''
|'''1,538,106'''
|'''-5.9'''
|'''758,944'''
|'''814,294'''
|'''-6.8'''
|'''3,288,862'''
|'''2,720,914'''
|'''+20.9'''
|'''326,145'''
|'''321,622'''
|'''+1.4'''
|'''3,542,755'''
|'''3,721,990'''
|'''-4.8'''
|'''1,267,741'''
|'''1,431,239'''
|'''-11.4'''
|'''10,632,381'''
|'''10,548,165'''
|'''+0.8'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''163,198'''
|'''166,092'''
|'''-1.7'''
|'''25,936'''
|'''35,144'''
|'''-26.2'''
|'''89,473'''
|'''79,303'''
|'''+12.8'''
|'''35'''
|'''76'''
|'''-53.9'''
|'''72,064'''
|'''87,070'''
|'''-17.2'''
|'''27,749'''
|'''29,025'''
|'''-4.4'''
|'''378,455'''
|'''396,710'''
|'''-4.6'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|381,970
|314,687
| +21.4
|167,178
|141,311
| +18.3
|689,973
|601,071
| +14.8
|0
|0
|
|658,853
|774,484
| -14.9
|54,804
|71,501
| -23.4
|1,952,778
|1,903,054
| +2.6
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''1,993,102'''
|'''2,018,885'''
|'''-1.3'''
|'''952,058'''
|'''990,749'''
|'''-3.9'''
|'''4,068,308'''
|'''3,401,288'''
|'''+19.6'''
|'''326,180'''
|'''321,698'''
|'''+1.4'''
|'''4,273,672'''
|'''4,583,544'''
|'''-6.8'''
|'''1,350,294'''
|'''1,531,765'''
|'''-11.8'''
|'''12,963,614'''
|'''12,847,929'''
|'''+0.9'''
|}

==== September 2024 ====
In September 2024, new EU car registrations continued their downward trajectory (-6.1%) with negative results across three of the region’s four major markets: France (-11.1%) and Italy (-10.7%), with the German market declining by 7%. On the other hand, Spain experienced a healthy rebound (+6.3%).<ref>https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/new-car-registrations-6-1-in-september-2024-year-to-date-battery-electric-market-sales-5-8/</ref>

Nine months into 2024, new car registrations remained stable (+0.6%) and almost reached 8 million units. Spain (+4.7%) and Italy (+2.1%) showed positive performances, while the French and the German car markets declined (-1.8% and ‑1%, respectively).

'''Monthly'''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="3" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!Sep
2024
!Sep
2023
!% change
24/23
!Sep
2024
!Sep
2023
!% change
24/23
!Sep
2024
!Sep
2023
!% change
24/23
!Sep
2024
!Sep
2023
!% change
24/23
!Sep
2024
!Sep
2023
!% change
24/23
!Sep
2024
!Sep
2023
!% change
24/23
!Sep
2024
!Sep
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|28,266
|30,173
| -6.3
|10,077
|15,699
| -35.8
|53,169
|38,461
| +38.2
|3,381
|5,785
| -41.6
|36,047
|52,915
| -31.9
|8,062
|13,270
| -39.2
|139,002
|156,303
| -11.1
|-
|Germany
|34,479
|31,714
| +8.7
|14,936
|15,383
| -2.9
|60,497
|57,795
| +4.7
|812
|731
| +11.1
|67,009
|78,979
| -15.2
|31,115
|39,900
| -22.0
|208,848
|224,502
| -7.0
|-
|Italy
|6,422
|4,941
| +30.0
|4,102
|5,422
| -24.3
|53,264
|53,780
| -1.0
|11,302
|11,006
| +2.7
|31,072
|40,503
| -23.3
|15,563
|20,703
| -24.8
|121,725
|136,355
| -10.7
|-
|Spain
|6,329
|3,726
| +69.9
|4,063
|4,931
| -17.6
|29,905
|23,580
| +26.8
|2,906
|1,705
| +70.4
|23,484
|26,287
| -10.7
|6,457
|8,574
| -24.7
|73,144
|68,803
| +6.3
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''139,702'''
|'''127,196'''
|'''+9.8'''
|'''54,889'''
|'''70,669'''
|'''-22.3'''
|'''265,724'''
|'''236,107'''
|'''+12.5'''
|'''23,635'''
|'''24,458'''
|'''-3.4'''
|'''240,805'''
|'''293,143'''
|'''-17.9'''
|'''84,408'''
|'''110,400'''
|'''-23.5'''
|'''809,163'''
|'''861,973'''
|'''-6.1'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''17,354'''
|'''14,884'''
|'''+16.6'''
|'''1,946'''
|'''2,869'''
|'''-32.2'''
|'''7,207'''
|'''6,342'''
|'''+13.6'''
|'''5'''
|'''2'''
|'''+150.0'''
|'''5,302'''
|'''6,885'''
|'''-23.0'''
|'''1,867'''
|'''2,072'''
|'''-9.9'''
|'''33,681'''
|'''33,054'''
|'''+1.9'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|56,387
|45,323
| +24.4
|24,486
|18,535
| +32.1
|104,237
|93,393
| +11.6
|0
|0
|
|83,100
|105,463
| -21.2
|7,029
|9,896
| -29.0
|275,239
|272,610
| +1.0
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''213,443'''
|'''187,403'''
|'''+13.9'''
|'''81,321'''
|'''92,073'''
|'''-11.7'''
|'''377,168'''
|'''335,842'''
|'''+12.3'''
|'''23,640'''
|'''24,460'''
|'''-3.4'''
|'''329,207'''
|'''405,491'''
|'''-18.8'''
|'''93,304'''
|'''122,368'''
|'''-23.8'''
|'''1,118,083'''
|'''1,167,637'''
|'''-4.2'''
|}
'''Year to date'''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="3" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!Jan-Sep
2024
!Jan-Sep
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Sep
2024
!Jan-Sep
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Sep
2024
!Jan-Sep
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Sep
2024
!Jan-Sep
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Sep
2024
!Jan-Sep
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Sep
2024
!Jan-Sep
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Sep
2024
!Jan-Sep
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|216,841
|204,616
| +6.0
|99,100
|116,446
| -14.9
|412,705
|303,617
| +35.9
|47,196
|52,063
| -9.3
|394,264
|482,010
| -18.2
|95,796
|129,872
| -26.2
|1,265,902
|1,288,624
| -1.8
|-
|Germany
|276,390
|387,289
| -28.6
|132,861
|123,345
| +7.7
|545,301
|490,855
| +11.1
|10,975
|11,364
| -3.4
|770,999
|750,386
| +2.7
|379,548
|374,827
| +1.3
|2,116,074
|2,138,066
| -1.0
|-
|Italy
|48,217
|45,761
| +5.4
|39,902
|52,626
| -24.2
|474,282
|420,445
| +12.8
|114,209
|106,646
| +7.1
|356,672
|335,512
| +6.3
|169,165
|216,350
| -21.8
|1,202,447
|1,177,340
| +2.1
|-
|Spain
|37,994
|34,607
| +9.8
|42,231
|45,120
| -6.4
|276,867
|220,669
| +25.5
|23,616
|17,220
| +37.1
|289,049
|301,581
| -4.2
|74,941
|92,186
| -18.7
|744,698
|711,383
| +4.7
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''1,047,869'''
|'''1,111,925'''
|'''-5.8'''
|'''550,166'''
|'''598,366'''
|'''-8.1'''
|'''2,404,532'''
|'''2,002,816'''
|'''+20.1'''
|'''248,093'''
|'''238,240'''
|'''+4.1'''
|'''2,744,809'''
|'''2,872,408'''
|'''-4.4'''
|'''994,307'''
|'''1,117,949'''
|'''-11.1'''
|'''7,989,776'''
|'''7,941,704'''
|'''+0.6'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''115,425'''
|'''121,721'''
|'''-5.2'''
|'''19,106'''
|'''24,360'''
|'''-21.6'''
|'''64,766'''
|'''58,169'''
|'''+11.3'''
|'''29'''
|'''68'''
|'''-57.4'''
|'''55,419'''
|'''65,912'''
|'''-15.9'''
|'''20,990'''
|'''22,008'''
|'''-4.6'''
|'''275,735'''
|'''292,238'''
|'''-5.6'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|269,931
|238,544
| +13.2
|124,943
|98,993
| +26.2
|538,935
|461,739
| +16.7
|0
|0
|
|537,037
|595,946
| -9.9
|43,248
|56,686
| -23.7
|1,514,094
|1,451,908
| +4.3
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''1,433,225'''
|'''1,472,190'''
|'''-2.6'''
|'''694,215'''
|'''721,719'''
|'''-3.8'''
|'''3,008,233'''
|'''2,522,724'''
|'''+19.2'''
|'''248,122'''
|'''238,308'''
|'''+4.1'''
|'''3,337,265'''
|'''3,534,266'''
|'''-5.6'''
|'''1,058,545'''
|'''1,196,643'''
|'''-11.5'''
|'''9,779,605'''
|'''9,685,850'''
|'''+1.0'''
|}

==== August 2024 ====
In August 2024, new EU car registrations saw a sharp decrease (-18.3%) with negative results across the region’s four major markets: double-digit losses were witnessed in Germany (-27.8%), France (-24.3%), and Italy (-13.4%), with the Spanish market declining by 6.5%.<ref>https://www.acea.auto/files/Press_release_car_registrations_August-2024.pdf</ref>

'''Monthly'''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="4" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!August
2024
!August
2023
!% change
24/23
!August
2024
!August
2023
!% change
24/23
!August
2024
!August
2023
!% change
24/23
!August
2024
!August
2023
!% change
24/23
!August
2024
! colspan="2" |August
2023
!% change
24/23
!August
2024
!August
2023
!% change
24/23
!August
2024
!August
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|13,143
|19,657
| -33.1
|6,164
|9,527
| -35.3
|30,559
|27,166
| +12.5
|3,149
|4,290
| -26.6
|27,093
| colspan="2" |42,743
| -36.6
|5,869
|10,216
| -42.6
|85,977
|113,599
| -24.3
|-
|Germany
|27,024
|86,649
| -68.8
|13,565
|14,552
| -6.8
|55,779
|55,844
| -0.1
|973
|1,106
| -12.0
|70,007
| colspan="2" |75,598
| -7.4
|29,974
|39,668
| -24.4
|197,322
|273,417
| -27.8
|-
|Spain
|2,696
|3,583
| -24.8
|3,010
|3,362
| -10.5
|21,261
|18,885
| +12.6
|2,442
|1,584
| +54.2
|18,050
| colspan="2" |21,864
| -17.4
|4,863
|6,676
| -27.2
|52,322
|55,954
| -6.5
|-
|Sweden
|6,790
|9,784
| -30.6
|3,863
|4,556
| -15.2
|2,321
|1,891
| +22.7
|231
|543
| -57.5
|4,252
| colspan="2" |5,285
| -19.5
|1,579
|1,812
| -12.9
|19,036
|23,871
| -20.3
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''92,627'''
|'''165,204'''
|'''-43.9'''
|'''45,590'''
|'''58,660'''
|'''-22.3'''
|'''201,552'''
|'''189,114'''
|'''+6.6'''
|'''18,634'''
|'''19,687'''
|'''-5.3'''
|'''213,057'''
| colspan="2" |'''257,139'''
|'''-17.1'''
|'''72,177'''
|'''98,008'''
|'''-26.4'''
|'''643,637'''
|'''787,812'''
|'''-18.3'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''14,093'''
|'''14,239'''
|'''-1.0'''
|'''1,484'''
|'''2,560'''
|'''-42.0'''
|'''5,951'''
|'''5,970'''
|'''-0.3'''
|'''0'''
|'''1'''
|'''-100.0'''
|'''4,357'''
| colspan="2" |'''6,241'''
|'''-30.2'''
|'''1,620'''
|'''2,214'''
|'''-26.8'''
|'''27,505'''
|'''31,225'''
|'''-11.9'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|19,113
|17,243
| +10.8
|5,786
|6,601
| -12.3
|29,076
|23,410
| +24.2
|0
|0
|
|27,894
| colspan="2" |34,756
| -19.7
|2,706
|3,647
| -25.8
|84,575
|85,657
| -1.3
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''125,833'''
|'''196,686'''
|'''-36.0'''
|'''52,860'''
|'''67,821'''
|'''-22.1'''
|'''236,579'''
|'''218,494'''
|'''+8.3'''
|'''18,634'''
|'''19,688'''
|'''-5.4'''
|'''245,308'''
| colspan="2" |'''298,136'''
|'''-17.7'''
|'''76,503'''
|'''103,869'''
|'''-26.3'''
|'''755,717'''
|'''904,694'''
|'''-16.5'''
|}
'''Year to Date'''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="3" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!Jan-Aug
2024
!Jan-Aug
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Aug
2024
!Jan-Aug
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Aug
2024
!Jan-Aug
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Aug
2024
!Jan-Aug
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Aug
2024
!Jan-Aug
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Aug
2024
!Jan-Aug
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Aug
2024
!Jan-Aug
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|188,575
|174,443
| +8.1
|89,023
|100,747
| -11.6
|359,536
|265,156
| +35.6
|43,815
|46,278
| -5.3
|358,217
|429,095
| -16.5
|87,734
|116,602
| -24.8
|1,126,900
|1,132,321
| -0.5
|-
|Germany
|241,911
|355,575
| -32.0
|117,925
|107,962
| +9.2
|484,804
|433,060
| +11.9
|10,163
|10,633
| -4.4
|703,990
|671,407
| +4.9
|348,433
|334,927
| +4.0
|1,907,226
|1,913,564
| -0.3
|-
|Italy
|35,785
|40,820
| -12.3
|41,799
|47,204
| -11.5
|421,013
|366,665
| +14.8
|102,896
|95,640
| +7.6
|325,638
|295,009
| +10.4
|153,595
|195,647
| -21.5
|1,080,726
|1,040,985
| +3.8
|-
|Spain
|31,665
|30,881
| +2.5
|38,168
|40,189
| -5.0
|246,963
|197,089
| +25.3
|20,714
|15,515
| +33.5
|265,552
|275,294
| -3.5
|68,489
|83,612
| -18.1
|671,551
|642,580
| +4.5
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''902,011'''
|'''983,718'''
|'''-8.3'''
|'''501,266'''
|'''527,697'''
|'''-5.0'''
|'''2,138,474'''
|'''1,765,893'''
|'''+21.1'''
|'''224,692'''
|'''213,537'''
|'''+5.2'''
|'''2,504,457'''
|'''2,580,076'''
|'''-2.9'''
|'''909,592'''
|'''1,007,279'''
|'''-9.7'''
|'''7,180,492'''
|'''7,078,200'''
|'''+1.4'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''98,071'''
|'''106,837'''
|'''-8.2'''
|'''17,160'''
|'''21,491'''
|'''-20.2'''
|'''57,559'''
|'''51,827'''
|'''+11.1'''
|'''24'''
|'''66'''
|'''-63.6'''
|'''50,117'''
|'''59,027'''
|'''-15.1'''
|'''19,123'''
|'''19,936'''
|'''-4.1'''
|'''242,054'''
|'''259,184'''
|'''-6.6'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|213,544
|193,221
| +10.5
|100,457
|80,458
| +24.9
|434,698
|368,346
| +18.0
|0
|0
|
|453,937
|490,483
| -7.5
|36,219
|46,790
| -22.6
|1,238,855
|1,179,298
| +5.1
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''1,213,626'''
|'''1,283,776'''
|'''-5.5'''
|'''618,883'''
|'''629,646'''
|'''-1.7'''
|'''2,630,731'''
|'''2,186,066'''
|'''+20.3'''
|'''224,716'''
|'''213,603'''
|'''+5.2'''
|'''3,008,511'''
|'''3,129,586'''
|'''-3.9'''
|'''964,934'''
|'''1,074,005'''
|'''-10.2'''
|'''8,661,401'''
|'''8,516,682'''
|'''+1.7'''
|}

==== July 2024 ====
In July 2024, new EU car registrations saw a modest increase (+0.2%) with mixed results across the region’s four major markets: Italy (+4.7%) and Spain (+3.4%) recorded moderate gains, while the French (-2.3%) and German (-2.1%) markets experienced declines.

Seven months into 2024, new car registrations increased by 3.9%, reaching more than 6.5 million units. This is the result of a low comparison base. The bloc’s largest markets all showed positive but modest performance, with Spain (+5.6%), Italy (+5.2%), Germany (+4.3%), and France (+2.2%) all recording growth.

'''''Monthly'''''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="3" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!July
2024
!July
2023
!% change
24/23
!July
2024
!July
2023
!% change
24/23
!July
2024
!July
2023
!% change
24/23
!July
2024
!July
2023
!% change
24/23
!July
2024
!July
2023
!% change
24/23
!July
2024
!July
2023
!% change
24/23
!July
2024
!July
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|17,030
|16,867
| +1.0
|9,171
|13,230
| -30.7
|48,457
|32,877
| +47.4
|4,430
|5,109
| -13.3
|37,441
|48,370
| -22.6
|9,508
|12,493
| -23.9
|126,037
|128,946
| -2.3
|-
|Germany
|30,762
|48,682
| -36.8
|14,811
|14,345
| +3.2
|65,059
|53,138
| +22.4
|1,119
|1,258
| -11.0
|83,405
|83,358
| +0.1
|43,107
|42,496
| +1.4
|238,263
|243,277
| -2.1
|-
|Italy
|4,266
|4,083
| +4.5
|4,799
|5,244
| -8.5
|49,859
|42,471
| +17.4
|14,197
|11,811
| +20.2
|35,879
|34,579
| +3.8
|15,940
|21,130
| -24.6
|124,940
|119,318
| +4.7
|-
|Spain
|3,827
|3,406
| +12.4
|4,415
|5,176
| -14.7
|34,535
|26,253
| +31.5
|2,536
|2,299
| +10.3
|30,132
|34,418
| -12.5
|8,534
|9,650
| -11.6
|83,979
|81,202
| +3.4
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''102,705'''
|'''115,100'''
|'''-10.8'''
|'''57,679'''
|'''67,127'''
|'''-14.1'''
|'''273,003'''
|'''217,172'''
|'''+25.7'''
|'''26,724'''
|'''25,386'''
|'''+5.3'''
|'''284,270'''
|'''305,531'''
|'''-7.0'''
|'''107,670'''
|'''119,752'''
|'''-10.1'''
|'''852,051'''
|'''850,068'''
|'''+0.2'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''9,617'''
|'''10,238'''
|'''-6.1'''
|'''1,895'''
|'''2,509'''
|'''-24.5'''
|'''6,670'''
|'''5,612'''
|'''+18.9'''
|'''2'''
|'''4'''
|'''-50.0'''
|'''5,359'''
|'''6,597'''
|'''-18.8'''
|'''2,179'''
|'''2,432'''
|'''-10.4'''
|'''25,722'''
|'''27,392'''
|'''-6.1'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|27,335
|23,010
| +18.8
|13,149
|11,702
| +12.4
|53,982
|45,372
| +19.0
|0
|0
|
|49,428
|58,150
| -15.0
|3,623
|5,687
| -36.3
|147,517
|143,921
| +2.5
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''139,657'''
|'''148,348'''
|'''-5.9'''
|'''72,723'''
|'''81,338'''
|'''-10.6'''
|'''333,655'''
|'''268,156'''
|'''+24.4'''
|'''26,726'''
|'''25,390'''
|'''+5.3'''
|'''339,057'''
|'''370,278'''
|'''-8.4'''
|'''113,472'''
|'''127,871'''
|'''-11.3'''
|'''1,025,290'''
|'''1,021,381'''
|'''+0.4'''
|}
'''''Year to Date'''''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="3" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!Jan-Jul
2024
!Jan-Jul
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Jul
2024
!Jan-Jul
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Jul
2024
!Jan-Jul
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Jul
2024
!Jan-Jul
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Jul
2024
!Jan-Jul
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Jul
2024
!Jan-Jul
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Jul
2024
!Jan-Jul
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|175,432
|154,786
| +13.3
|82,859
|91,220
| -9.2
|328,977
|237,990
| +38.2
|40,666
|41,988
| -3.1
|331,124
|386,352
| -14.3
|81,865
|106,386
| -23.0
|1,040,923
|1,018,722
| +2.2
|-
|Germany
|214,887
|268,926
| -20.1
|104,360
|93,410
| +11.7
|429,025
|377,216
| +13.7
|9,190
|9,527
| -3.5
|633,983
|595,809
| +6.4
|318,459
|295,259
| +7.9
|1,709,904
|1,640,147
| +4.3
|-
|Italy
|39,208
|36,761
| +6.7
|33,385
|43,914
| -24.0
|393,073
|339,393
| +15.8
|95,609
|87,729
| +9.0
|306,093
|270,956
| +13.0
|144,195
|182,403
| -20.9
|1,011,563
|961,156
| +5.2
|-
|Spain
|28,969
|27,298
| +6.1
|35,158
|36,827
| -4.5
|225,701
|178,204
| +26.7
|18,272
|13,931
| +31.2
|247,500
|253,430
| -2.3
|63,624
|76,936
| -17.3
|619,224
|586,626
| +5.6
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''815,399'''
|'''818,542'''
|'''-0.4'''
|'''449,702'''
|'''469,037'''
|'''-4.1'''
|'''1,935,654'''
|'''1,576,779'''
|'''+22.8'''
|'''206,010'''
|'''193,817'''
|'''+6.3'''
|'''2,292,803'''
|'''2,322,908'''
|'''-1.3'''
|'''837,794'''
|'''909,305'''
|'''-7.9'''
|'''6,537,362'''
|'''6,290,388'''
|'''+3.9'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''83,978'''
|'''92,598'''
|'''-9.3'''
|'''15,676'''
|'''18,931'''
|'''-17.2'''
|'''51,608'''
|'''45,857'''
|'''+12.5'''
|'''24'''
|'''65'''
|'''-63.1'''
|'''45,760'''
|'''52,786'''
|'''-13.3'''
|'''17,503'''
|'''17,722'''
|'''-1.2'''
|'''214,549'''
|'''227,959'''
|'''-5.9'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|194,431
|175,978
| +10.5
|94,671
|73,857
| +28.2
|405,622
|344,936
| +17.6
|0
|0
|
|426,043
|455,727
| -6.5
|33,513
|43,143
| -22.3
|1,154,280
|1,093,641
| +5.5
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''1,093,808'''
|'''1,087,118'''
|'''+0.6'''
|'''560,049'''
|'''561,825'''
|'''-0.3'''
|'''2,392,884'''
|'''1,967,572'''
|'''+21.6'''
|'''206,034'''
|'''193,882'''
|'''+6.3'''
|'''2,764,606'''
|'''2,831,421'''
|'''-2.4'''
|'''888,810'''
|'''970,170'''
|'''-8.4'''
|'''7,906,191'''
|'''7,611,988'''
|'''+3.9'''
|}

==== June 2024 ====
In June 2024, EU car registrations increased by 4.3%, driven by gains in three out of the region’s four major markets: Italy (+15.1%), Germany (+6.1%), and Spain (+2.2%). In contrast, France saw a decline of 4.8% last month.

In the first half of 2024, new car registrations increased by 4.5%, reaching nearly 5.7 million units. However, registration volumes remain relatively low (-18%) compared to pre-pandemic levels. The bloc’s largest markets all showed positive but modest performance, with Spain (+5.9%), Germany (+5.4%), Italy (+5.4%), and France (+2.8%) all recording growth.<ref>https://www.acea.auto/files/Press_release_car_registrations_June_2024.pdf</ref>

'''Monthly'''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="4" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!June
2024
!June
2023
!% change
24/23
!June
2024
!June
2023
!% change
24/23
!June
2024
!June
2023
!% change
24/23
!June
2024
!June
2023
!% change
24/23
!June
2024
! colspan="2" |June
2023
!% change
24/23
!June
2024
!June
2023
!% change
24/23
!June
2024
!June
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|29,837
|33,280
| -10.3
|14,044
|17,935
| -21.7
|62,204
|46,098
| +34.9
|4,913
|7,551
| -34.9
|54,480
| colspan="2" |68,275
| -20.2
|16,231
|17,708
| -8.3
|181,709
|190,847
| -4.8
|-
|Germany
|43,412
|52,988
| -18.1
|15,391
|15,930
| -3.4
|72,579
|62,319
| +16.5
|1,491
|2,360
| -36.8
|111,768
| colspan="2" |99,682
| +12.1
|52,688
|46,860
| +12.4
|297,329
|280,139
| +6.1
|-
|Italy
|13,365
|6,148
| +117.4
|5,592
|7,404
| -24.5
|61,358
|48,244
| +27.2
|16,261
|11,916
| +36.5
|42,630
| colspan="2" |39,886
| +6.9
|20,776
|25,431
| -18.3
|159,982
|139,029
| +15.1
|-
|Spain
|5,531
|5,474
| +1.0
|5,204
|6,439
| -19.2
|37,520
|30,499
| +23.0
|2,633
|2,657
| -0.9
|40,440
| colspan="2" |43,734
| -7.5
|12,029
|12,282
| -2.1
|103,357
|101,085
| +2.2
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''156,408'''
|'''157,982'''
|'''-1.0'''
|'''66,482'''
|'''82,947'''
|'''-19.9'''
|'''321,959'''
|'''254,793'''
|'''+26.4'''
|'''31,419'''
|'''31,101'''
|'''+1.0'''
|'''375,393'''
| colspan="2" |'''378,183'''
|'''-0.7'''
|'''138,264'''
|'''139,513'''
|'''-0.9'''
|'''1,089,925'''
|'''1,044,519'''
|'''+4.3'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''18,430'''
|'''18,930'''
|'''-2.6'''
|'''3,008'''
|'''3,883'''
|'''-22.5'''
|'''10,355'''
|'''8,059'''
|'''+28.5'''
|'''9'''
|'''6'''
|'''+50.0'''
|'''7,108'''
| colspan="2" |'''9,015'''
|'''-21.2'''
|'''2,891'''
|'''3,455'''
|'''-16.3'''
|'''41,801'''
|'''43,348'''
|'''-3.6'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|34,034
|31,700
| +7.4
|16,604
|12,770
| +30.0
|63,980
|56,208
| +13.8
|0
|0
|#DIV/0!
|59,942
| colspan="2" |70,367
| -14.8
|4,703
|6,221
| -24.4
|179,263
|177,266
| +1.1
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''208,872'''
|'''208,612'''
|'''+0.1'''
|'''86,094'''
|'''99,600'''
|'''-13.6'''
|'''396,294'''
|'''319,060'''
|'''+24.2'''
|'''31,428'''
|'''31,107'''
|'''+1.0'''
|'''442,443'''
| colspan="2" |'''457,565'''
|'''-3.3'''
|'''145,858'''
|'''149,189'''
|'''-2.2'''
|'''1,310,989'''
|'''1,265,133'''
|'''+3.6'''
|}
'''Year to Date'''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="3" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!Jan-Jun
2024
!Jan-Jun
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Jun
2024
!Jan-Jun
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Jun
2024
!Jan-Jun
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Jun
2024
!Jan-Jun
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Jun
2024
!Jan-Jun
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Jun
2024
!Jan-Jun
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Jun
2024
!Jan-Jun
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|158,402
|137,919
| +14.9
|73,688
|77,990
| -5.5
|280,520
|205,113
| +36.8
|36,236
|36,879
| -1.7
|293,683
|337,982
| -13.1
|72,357
|93,893
| -22.9
|914,886
|889,776
| +2.8
|-
|Germany
|184,125
|220,244
| -16.4
|89,549
|79,065
| +13.3
|363,966
|324,078
| +12.3
|8,071
|8,269
| -2.4
|550,578
|512,451
| +7.4
|275,352
|252,763
| +8.9
|1,471,641
|1,396,870
| +5.4
|-
|Italy
|34,932
|32,660
| +7.0
|29,014
|38,908
| -25.4
|342,616
|296,436
| +15.6
|81,394
|75,144
| +8.3
|269,736
|236,598
| +14.0
|128,039
|160,912
| -20.4
|885,731
|840,658
| +5.4
|-
|Spain
|25,141
|23,892
| +5.2
|30,742
|31,651
| -2.9
|191,167
|151,951
| +25.8
|15,736
|11,632
| +35.3
|217,366
|219,012
| -0.8
|55,091
|67,286
| -18.1
|535,243
|505,424
| +5.9
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''712,637'''
|'''703,392'''
|'''+1.3'''
|'''392,284'''
|'''402,319'''
|'''-2.5'''
|'''1,661,081'''
|'''1,358,058'''
|'''+22.3'''
|'''179,257'''
|'''167,630'''
|'''+6.9'''
|'''2,007,942'''
|'''2,018,060'''
|'''-0.5'''
|'''730,642'''
|'''789,429'''
|'''-7.4'''
|'''5,683,843'''
|'''5,438,888'''
|'''+4.5'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''74,361'''
|'''82,360'''
|'''-9.7'''
|'''13,774'''
|'''16,422'''
|'''-16.1'''
|'''44,946'''
|'''40,245'''
|'''+11.7'''
|'''22'''
|'''60'''
|'''-63.3'''
|'''40,401'''
|'''46,189'''
|'''-12.5'''
|'''15,328'''
|'''15,290'''
|'''+0.2'''
|'''188,832'''
|'''200,566'''
|'''-5.9'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|167,096
|152,968
| +9.2
|81,522
|62,155
| +31.2
|351,640
|299,564
| +17.4
|0
|0
|#DIV/0!
|376,615
|397,577
| -5.3
|29,890
|37,456
| -20.2
|1,006,763
|949,720
| +6.0
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''954,094'''
|'''938,720'''
|'''+1.6'''
|'''487,580'''
|'''480,896'''
|'''+1.4'''
|'''2,057,667'''
|'''1,697,867'''
|'''+21.2'''
|'''179,279'''
|'''167,690'''
|'''+6.9'''
|'''2,424,958'''
|'''2,461,826'''
|'''-1.5'''
|'''775,860'''
|'''842,175'''
|'''-7.9'''
|'''6,879,438'''
|'''6,589,174'''
|'''+4.4'''
|}

==== May 2024 ====
In May 2024, car registrations in the European Union decreased by 3%, with declines observed in three out of the region’s four major markets: Italy (-6.6%), Germany (-4.3%), and France (-2.9%). Spain, on the other hand, achieved a modest growth of 3.4% last month. Despite the downturn in May, year-to-date car registrations over the first five months of 2024 increased by 4.6% to 4.6 million units. The bloc's largest markets all showed a similar performance, with Spain (+6.8%), Germany (+5.2%), France (+4.9%), and Italy (+3.4%) recording growth so far this year.<ref>https://www.acea.auto/files/Press_release_car_registrations_May_2024.pdf</ref>

'''Monthly'''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="4" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!May
2024
!May
2023
!% change
24/23
!May
2024
!May
2023
!% change
24/23
!May
2024
!May
2023
!% change
24/23
!May
2024
!May
2023
!% change
24/23
!May
2024
! colspan="2" |May
2023
!% change
24/23
!May
2024
!May
2023
!% change
24/23
!May
2024
!May
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|23,892
|22,667
| +5.4
|10,202
|12,657
| -19.4
|47,573
|34,395
| +38.3
|4,946
|6,382
| -22.5
|43,275
| colspan="2" |54,267
| -20.3
|11,410
|15,168
| -24.8
|141,298
|145,536
| -2.9
|-
|Germany
|29,708
|42,780
| -30.6
|14,038
|13,803
| +1.7
|57,413
|57,842
| -0.7
|875
|1,336
| -34.5
|89,498
| colspan="2" |87,700
| +2.1
|44,893
|43,505
| +3.2
|236,425
|246,966
| -4.3
|-
|Italy
|5,052
|6,181
| -18.3
|4,579
|6,592
| -30.5
|55,655
|51,820
| +7.4
|9,265
|12,751
| -27.3
|44,856
| colspan="2" |43,081
| +4.1
|20,102
|28,911
| -30.5
|139,509
|149,336
| -6.6
|-
|Spain
|4,393
|4,409
| -0.4
|4,787
|6,009
| -20.3
|34,079
|27,184
| +25.4
|2,287
|2,314
| -1.2
|39,820
| colspan="2" |40,534
| -1.8
|9,792
|11,574
| -15.4
|95,158
|92,024
| +3.4
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''114,308'''
|'''129,868'''
|'''-12.0'''
|'''59,333'''
|'''69,539'''
|'''-14.7'''
|'''272,568'''
|'''234,563'''
|'''+16.2'''
|'''23,204'''
|'''28,697'''
|'''-19.1'''
|'''323,551'''
| colspan="2" |'''342,795'''
|'''-5.6'''
|'''118,733'''
|'''134,059'''
|'''-11.43'''
|'''911,697'''
|'''939,521'''
|'''-3.0'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''11,629'''
|'''16,028'''
|'''-27.4'''
|'''2,558'''
|'''2,986'''
|'''-14.3'''
|'''8,468'''
|'''7,590'''
|'''+11.6'''
|'''2'''
|'''10'''
|'''-80.0'''
|'''7,559'''
| colspan="2" |'''7,969'''
|'''-5.1'''
|'''3,310'''
|'''2,906'''
|'''+13.9'''
|'''33,526'''
|'''37,489'''
|'''-10.6'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|26,031
|24,513
| +6.2
|11,866
|9,025
| +31.5
|51,736
|46,142
| +12.1
|0
|0
|#DIV/0!
|53,643
| colspan="2" |59,766
| -10.2
|4,402
|5,758
| -23.5
|147,678
|145,204
| +1.7
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''151,968'''
|'''170,409'''
|'''-10.8'''
|'''73,757'''
|'''81,550'''
|'''-9.6'''
|'''332,772'''
|'''288,295'''
|'''+15.4'''
|'''23,206'''
|'''28,707'''
|'''-19.2'''
|'''384,753'''
| colspan="2" |'''410,530'''
|'''-6.3'''
|'''126,445'''
|'''142,723'''
|'''-11.4'''
|'''1,092,901'''
|'''1,122,214'''
|'''-2.6'''
|}
'''Year to Date'''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="3" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!Jan-May
2024
!Jan-May
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-May
2024
!Jan-May
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-May
2024
!Jan-May
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-May
2024
!Jan-May
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-May
2024
!Jan-May
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-May
2024
!Jan-May
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-May
2024
!Jan-May
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|128,565
|104,639
| +22.9
|59,644
|60,055
| -0.7
|218,316
|159,015
| +37.3
|31,323
|29,328
| +6.8
|239,203
|269,707
| -11.3
|56,126
|76,185
| -26.3
|733,177
|698,929
| +4.9
|-
|Germany
|140,713
|167,256
| -15.9
|74,158
|63,135
| +17.5
|291,387
|261,759
| +11.3
|6,580
|5,909
| +11.4
|438,810
|412,769
| +6.3
|222,664
|205,903
| +8.1
|1,174,312
|1,116,731
| +5.2
|-
|Italy
|21,566
|26,516
| -18.7
|23,423
|31,507
| -25.7
|281,267
|248,245
| +13.3
|65,134
|63,234
| +3.0
|227,105
|196,745
| +15.4
|107,256
|135,520
| -20.9
|725,751
|701,767
| +3.4
|-
|Spain
|19,610
|18,418
| +6.5
|25,543
|25,212
| +1.3
|153,557
|121,440
| +26.4
|13,103
|8,975
| +46.0
|176,981
|175,290
| +1.0
|43,090
|55,004
| -21.7
|431,884
|404,339
| +6.8
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''556,276'''
|'''545,399'''
|'''+2.0'''
|'''325,631'''
|'''319,249'''
|'''+2.0'''
|'''1,339,723'''
|'''1,104,010'''
|'''+21.4'''
|'''147,847'''
|'''136,558'''
|'''+8.3'''
|'''1,632,315'''
|'''1,639,179'''
|'''-0.4'''
|'''592,701'''
|'''650,055'''
|'''-8.8'''
|'''4,594,493'''
|'''4,394,450'''
|'''+4.6'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''55,931'''
|'''63,430'''
|'''-11.8'''
|'''10,766'''
|'''12,539'''
|'''-14.1'''
|'''34,591'''
|'''32,186'''
|'''+7.5'''
|'''13'''
|'''56'''
|'''-76.8'''
|'''33,293'''
|'''37,174'''
|'''-10.4'''
|'''12,437'''
|'''11,835'''
|'''+5.1'''
|'''147,031'''
|'''157,220'''
|'''-6.5'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|133,062
|121,268
| +9.7
|64,918
|49,385
| +31.5
|287,660
|243,356
| +18.2
|0
|0
|#DIV/0!
|316,673
|327,210
| -3.2
|25,187
|31,235
| -19.4
|827,500
|772,454
| +7.1
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''745,269'''
|'''730,097'''
|'''+2.1'''
|'''401,315'''
|'''381,173'''
|'''+5.3'''
|'''1,661,974'''
|'''1,379,552'''
|'''+20.5'''
|'''147,860'''
|'''136,614'''
|'''+8.2'''
|'''1,982,281'''
|'''2,003,563'''
|'''-1.1'''
|'''630,325'''
|'''693,125'''
|'''-9.1'''
|'''5,569,024'''
|'''5,324,124'''
|'''+4.6'''
|}

==== April 2024 ====
In April 2024, the European Union car market grew by 13.7%, with new registrations totalling 913,995 units, driven by strong increases across all major markets: Spain (+23.1%), Germany (+19.8%), France (+10.9%), and Italy (+7.7%).

During the first four months of the year, new car registrations in the European Union increased by 6.6%, reaching nearly 3.7 million units. Solid growth was recorded in the region’s largest markets over the period, with Germany and Spain each seeing a 7.8% increase, followed by France (+7%) and Italy (+6.1%).<ref>https://www.acea.auto/files/Press_release_car_registrations_April_2024.pdf</ref>

'''Monthly'''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="4" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!April
2024
!April
2023
!% change
24/23
!April
2024
!April
2023
!% change
24/23
!April
2024
!April
2023
!% change
24/23
!April
2024
!April
2023
!% change
24/23
!April
2024
! colspan="2" |April
2023
!% change
24/23
!April
2024
!April
2023
!% change
24/23
!April
2024
!April
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|24,850
|17,113
| +45.2
|10,867
|10,882
| -0.1
|45,798
|30,933
| +48.1
|6,839
|6,215
| +10.0
|47,245
| colspan="2" |53,478
| -11.7
|11,378
|13,885
| -18.1
|146,977
|132,506
| +10.9
|-
|Germany
|29,668
|29,740
| -0.2
|15,135
|11,787
| +28.4
|60,047
|47,681
| +25.9
|1,206
|1,082
| +11.5
|90,729
| colspan="2" |76,519
| +18.6
|46,317
|36,138
| +28.2
|243,102
|202,947
| +19.8
|-
|Italy
|3,190
|3,986
| -20.0
|4,467
|5,947
| -24.9
|53,526
|43,605
| +22.8
|12,532
|10,540
| +18.9
|42,211
| colspan="2" |37,009
| +14.1
|19,392
|24,577
| -21.1
|135,318
|125,664
| +7.7
|-
|Spain
|3,842
|3,436
| +11.8
|5,060
|4,326
| +17.0
|30,439
|21,973
| +38.5
|3,427
|1,452
| +136.0
|40,232
| colspan="2" |32,410
| +24.1
|9,000
|11,150
| -19.3
|92,000
|74,747
| +23.1
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''108,552'''
|'''94,581'''
|'''+14.8'''
|'''62,148'''
|'''59,941'''
|'''+3.7'''
|'''265,992'''
|'''199,906'''
|'''+33.1'''
|'''30,405'''
|'''24,788'''
|'''+22.7'''
|'''328,967'''
| colspan="2" |'''306,462'''
|'''+7.3'''
|'''117,931'''
|'''117,890'''
|'''+0.03'''
|'''913,995'''
|'''803,568'''
|'''+13.7'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''13,387'''
|'''11,321'''
|'''+18.2'''
|'''2,125'''
|'''2,346'''
|'''-9.4'''
|'''7,177'''
|'''5,913'''
|'''+21.4'''
|'''1'''
|'''6'''
|'''-83.3'''
|'''7,111'''
| colspan="2" |'''6,962'''
|'''+2.1'''
|'''2,843'''
|'''2,207'''
|'''+28.8'''
|'''32,644'''
|'''28,755'''
|'''+13.5'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|22,717
|20,522
| +10.7
|10,493
|8,595
| +22.1
|45,685
|41,163
| +11.0
|0
|0
|
|51,210
| colspan="2" |56,885
| -10.0
|4,169
|5,825
| -28.4
|134,274
|132,990
| +1.0
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''144,656'''
|'''126,424'''
|'''+14.4'''
|'''74,766'''
|'''70,882'''
|'''+5.5'''
|'''318,854'''
|'''246,982'''
|'''+29.1'''
|'''30,406'''
|'''24,794'''
|'''+22.6'''
|'''387,288'''
| colspan="2" |'''370,309'''
|'''+4.6'''
|'''124,943'''
|'''125,922'''
|'''-0.8'''
|'''1,080,913'''
|'''965,313'''
|'''+12.0'''
|}
'''Year to Date'''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="3" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!Jan-Apr
2024
!Jan-Apr
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Apr
2024
!Jan-Apr
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Apr
2024
!Jan-Apr
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Apr
2024
!Jan-Apr
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Apr
2024
!Jan-Apr
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Apr
2024
!Jan-Apr
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Apr
2024
!Jan-Apr
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|104,673
|81,972
| +27.7
|49,442
|47,398
| +4.3
|170,743
|124,620
| +37.0
|26,377
|22,946
| +15.0
|195,928
|215,440
| -9.1
|44,716
|61,017
| -26.7
|591,879
|553,393
| +7.0
|-
|Germany
|111,005
|124,476
| -10.8
|60,120
|49,332
| +21.9
|233,974
|203,917
| +14.7
|5,705
|4,573
| +24.8
|349,312
|325,069
| +7.5
|177,771
|162,398
| +9.5
|937,887
|869,765
| +7.8
|-
|Italy
|16,515
|20,335
| -18.8
|18,882
|24,915
| -24.2
|225,616
|196,425
| +14.9
|55,872
|50,483
| +10.7
|182,236
|153,664
| +18.6
|87,173
|106,609
| -18.2
|586,294
|552,431
| +6.1
|-
|Spain
|15,219
|14,009
| +8.6
|20,759
|19,203
| +8.1
|119,440
|94,256
| +26.7
|10,814
|6,661
| +62.3
|137,190
|134,756
| +1.8
|33,304
|43,430
| -23.3
|336,726
|312,315
| +7.8
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''441,992'''
|'''415,510'''
|'''+6.4'''
|'''266,345'''
|'''249,710'''
|'''+6.7'''
|'''1,067,134'''
|'''869,446'''
|'''+22.7'''
|'''124,755'''
|'''107,895'''
|'''+15.6'''
|'''1,309,532'''
|'''1,296,776'''
|'''+1.0'''
|'''473,284'''
|'''515,586'''
|'''-8.2'''
|'''3,683,042'''
|'''3,454,923'''
|'''+6.6'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''44,302'''
|'''47,402'''
|'''-6.5'''
|'''8,208'''
|'''9,553'''
|'''-14.1'''
|'''26,123'''
|'''24,596'''
|'''+6.2'''
|'''11'''
|'''46'''
|'''-76.1'''
|'''25,734'''
|'''29,205'''
|'''-11.9'''
|'''9,127'''
|'''8,929'''
|'''+2.2'''
|'''113,505'''
|'''119,731'''
|'''-5.2'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|107,031
|96,755
| +10.6
|53,052
|40,360
| +31.4
|235,924
|197,214
| +19.6
|0
|0
|
|263,030
|267,444
| -1.7
|20,785
|25,477
| -18.4
|679,822
|627,250
| +8.4
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''593,325'''
|'''559,667'''
|'''+6.0'''
|'''327,605'''
|'''299,623'''
|'''+9.3'''
|'''1,329,181'''
|'''1,091,256'''
|'''+21.8'''
|'''124,766'''
|'''107,941'''
|'''+15.6'''
|'''1,598,296'''
|'''1,593,425'''
|'''+0.3'''
|'''503,196'''
|'''549,992'''
|'''-8.5'''
|'''4,476,369'''
|'''4,201,904'''
|'''+6.5'''
|}

==== March 2024 ====
The timing of the Easter holidays negatively impacted last month’s sales across most EU markets, including the four largest: Germany (‑6.2%), Spain (-4.7%), Italy (-3.7%), and France (-1.5%).<ref>https://www.acea.auto/files/Press_release_car_registrations_March_2024.pdf</ref>

For the first quarter of the year, car registrations increased by 4.4%, reaching nearly 2.8 million units. The bloc’s major markets saw solid growth from January to March, with Italy and France each recording a 5.7% increase, followed by Germany (+4.2%) and Spain (+3.1%).

'''Monthly'''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="3" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!March
2024
!March
2023
!% change
24/23
!March
2024
!March
2023
!% change
24/23
!March
2024
!March
2023
!% change
24/23
!March
2024
!March
2023
!% change
24/23
!March
2024
!March
2023
!% change
24/23
!March
2024
!March
2023
!% change
24/23
!March
2024
!March
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|33,981
|30,635
| +10.9
|16,294
|15,722
| +3.6
|49,908
|38,515
| +29.6
|7,482
|6,473
| +15.6
|58,861
|71,501
| -17.7
|13,497
|19,866
| -32.1
|180,023
|182,712
| -1.5
|-
|Germany
|31,384
|44,125
| -28.9
|16,016
|16,776
| -4.5
|67,033
|67,253
| -0.3
|1,293
|1,339
| -3.4
|99,753
|103,271
| -3.4
|48,365
|48,597
| -0.5
|263,844
|281,361
| -6.2
|-
|Italy
|5,357
|8,161
| -34.4
|5,668
|7,278
| -22.1
|62,798
|57,962
| +8.3
|12,990
|13,026
| -0.3
|50,765
|48,044
| +5.7
|24,401
|33,710
| -27.6
|161,979
|168,181
| -3.7
|-
|Spain
|4,203
|4,324
| -2.8
|5,559
|5,955
| -6.6
|33,903
|28,760
| +17.9
|2,177
|1,671
| +30.3
|40,412
|44,976
| -10.1
|8,586
|13,840
| -38.0
|94,840
|99,526
| -4.7
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''134,397'''
|'''151,594'''
|'''-11.3'''
|'''73,029'''
|'''78,131'''
|'''-6.5'''
|'''299,426'''
|'''265,904'''
|'''+12.6'''
|'''31,420'''
|'''29,062'''
|'''+8.1'''
|'''365,376'''
|'''406,971'''
|'''-10.2'''
|'''128,227'''
|'''157,355'''
|'''-18.5'''
|'''1,031,875'''
|'''1,089,017'''
|'''-5.2'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''13,626'''
|'''22,558'''
|'''-39.6'''
|'''2,321'''
|'''3,137'''
|'''-26.0'''
|'''7,903'''
|'''8,428'''
|'''-6.2'''
|'''1'''
|'''23'''
|'''-95.7'''
|'''7,511'''
|'''9,359'''
|'''-19.7'''
|'''2,387'''
|'''2,875'''
|'''-17.0'''
|'''33,749'''
|'''46,380'''
|'''-27.2'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|48,388
|46,626
| +3.8
|24,517
|17,933
| +36.7
|116,664
|92,964
| +25.5
|0
|0
|
|119,005
|119,278
| -0.2
|9,212
|11,024
| -16.4
|317,786
|287,825
| +10.4
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''196,411'''
|'''220,778'''
|'''-11.0'''
|'''99,867'''
|'''99,201'''
|'''+0.7'''
|'''423,993'''
|'''367,296'''
|'''+15.4'''
|'''31,421'''
|'''29,085'''
|'''+8.0'''
|'''491,892'''
|'''535,608'''
|'''-8.2'''
|'''139,826'''
|'''171,254'''
|'''-18.4'''
|'''1,383,410'''
|'''1,423,222'''
|'''-2.8'''
|}
'''Year to Date'''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="3" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!Jan-Mar
2024
!Jan-Mar
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Mar
2024
!Jan-Mar
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Mar
2024
!Jan-Mar
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Mar
2024
!Jan-Mar
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Mar
2024
!Jan-Mar
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Mar
2024
!Jan-Mar
2023
!% change
24/23
!Jan-Mar
2024
!Jan-Mar
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|79,823
|64,859
| +23.1
|38,575
|36,516
| +5.6
|124,945
|93,687
| +33.4
|19,538
|16,731
| +16.8
|148,683
|161,962
| -8.2
|33,338
|47,132
| -29.3
|444,902
|420,887
| +5.7
|-
|Germany
|81,337
|94,736
| -14.1
|44,985
|37,545
| +19.8
|173,927
|156,236
| +11.3
|4,499
|3,491
| +28.9
|258,583
|248,550
| +4.0
|131,454
|126,260
| +4.1
|694,785
|666,818
| +4.2
|-
|Italy
|13,325
|16,349
| -18.5
|14,415
|18,968
| -24.0
|172,090
|152,820
| +12.6
|43,340
|39,943
| +8.5
|140,025
|116,655
| +20.0
|67,781
|82,032
| -17.4
|450,976
|426,767
| +5.7
|-
|Spain
|11,386
|10,573
| +7.7
|15,700
|14,876
| +5.5
|88,983
|72,282
| +23.1
|7,356
|5,209
| +41.2
|97,057
|102,346
| -5.2
|24,397
|32,279
| -24.4
|244,879
|237,565
| +3.1
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''332,999'''
|'''320,948'''
|'''+3.8'''
|'''204,001'''
|'''189,768'''
|'''+7.5'''
|'''801,315'''
|'''669,409'''
|'''+19.7'''
|'''94,495'''
|'''83,269'''
|'''+13.5'''
|'''980,477'''
|'''990,214'''
|'''-1.0'''
|'''355,352'''
|'''397,655'''
|'''-10.6'''
|'''2,768,639'''
|'''2,651,263'''
|'''+4.4'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''30,915'''
|'''36,081'''
|'''-14.3'''
|'''6,083'''
|'''7,207'''
|'''-15.6'''
|'''18,946'''
|'''18,683'''
|'''+1.4'''
|'''11'''
|'''40'''
|'''-72.5'''
|'''18,623'''
|'''22,243'''
|'''-16.3'''
|'''6,284'''
|'''6,722'''
|'''-6.5'''
|'''80,862'''
|'''90,976'''
|'''-11.1'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|84,314
|76,233
| +10.6
|42,559
|31,765
| +34.0
|190,239
|156,051
| +21.9
|0
|0
|
|211,820
|210,559
| +0.6
|16,616
|19,652
| -15.4
|545,548
|494,260
| +10.4
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''448,228'''
|'''433,262'''
|'''+3.5'''
|'''252,643'''
|'''228,740'''
|'''+10.4'''
|'''1,010,500'''
|'''844,143'''
|'''+19.7'''
|'''94,506'''
|'''83,309'''
|'''+13.4'''
|'''1,210,920'''
|'''1,223,016'''
|'''-1.0'''
|'''378,252'''
|'''424,029'''
|'''-10.8'''
|'''3,395,049'''
|'''3,236,499'''
|'''+4.9'''
|}

==== February 2024 ====
In February 2024, the EU car market surged by 10.1% compared to the same month last year, reaching 883,608 units. Among the four major EU markets, France (+13%) and Italy (+12.8%) grew by double-digits, with Spain (+9.9%) and Germany (+5.4%) following.<ref>https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/new-car-registrations-10-1-in-february-2024-battery-electric-12-market-share/</ref>

'''Monthly'''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="3" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!February
2024
!February
2023
!% change
24/23
!February
2024
!February
2023
!% change
24/23
!February
2024
!February
2023
!% change
24/23
!February
2024
!February
2023
!% change
24/23
!February
2024
!February
2023
!% change
24/23
!February
2024
!February
2023
!% change
24/23
!February
2024
!February
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|25,825
|19,595
| +31.8
|11,732
|10,493
| +11.8
|41,227
|29,142
| +41.5
|5,495
|5,171
| +6.3
|48,095
|47,121
| +2.1
|10,221
|14,714
| -30.5
|142,595
|126,236
| +13.0
|-
|Germany
|27,479
|32,475
| -15.4
|14,575
|11,916
| +22.3
|54,792
|47,064
| +16.4
|1,283
|965
| +33.0
|77,106
|75,357
| +2.3
|42,153
|38,433
| +9.7
|217,388
|206,210
| +5.4
|-
|Italy
|5,007
|4,857
| +3.1
|4,662
|5,588
| -16.6
|55,407
|47,739
| +16.1
|14,594
|13,404
| +8.9
|45,901
|34,419
| +33.4
|21,455
|24,320
| -11.8
|147,026
|130,327
| +12.8
|-
|Spain
|3,804
|3,297
| +15.4
|5,563
|4,813
| +15.6
|28,625
|22,620
| +26.5
|2,417
|1,740
| +38.9
|32,659
|31,502
| +3.7
|8,280
|10,029
| -17.4
|81,348
|74,001
| +9.9
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''106,187'''
|'''97,385'''
|'''+9.0'''
|'''64,351'''
|'''57,651'''
|'''+11.6'''
|'''255,511'''
|'''204,835'''
|'''+24.7'''
|'''29,847'''
|'''26,838'''
|'''+11.2'''
|'''313,821'''
|'''295,710'''
|'''+6.1'''
|'''113,891'''
|'''120,016'''
|'''-5.1'''
|'''883,608'''
|'''802,435'''
|'''+10.1'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''10,045'''
|'''9,260'''
|'''+8.5'''
|'''1,927'''
|'''2,234'''
|'''-13.7'''
|'''5,743'''
|'''4,891'''
|'''+17.4'''
|'''15'''
|'''8'''
|'''+87.5'''
|'''6,376'''
|'''7,105'''
|'''-10.3'''
|'''2,459'''
|'''2,504'''
|'''-1.8'''
|'''26,565'''
|'''26,002'''
|'''+2.2'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|14,991
|12,310
| +21.8
|6,098
|4,723
| +29.1
|26,140
|21,749
| +20.2
|
|
|
|34,579
|32,311
| +7.0
|3,078
|3,348
| -8.1
|84,886
|74,441
| +14.0
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''131,223'''
|'''118,955'''
|'''+10.3'''
|'''72,376'''
|'''64,608'''
|'''+12.0'''
|'''287,394'''
|'''231,475'''
|'''+24.2'''
|'''29,862'''
|'''26,846'''
|'''+11.2'''
|'''354,776'''
|'''335,126'''
|'''+5.9'''
|'''119,428'''
|'''125,868'''
|'''-5.1'''
|'''995,059'''
|'''902,878'''
|'''+10.2'''
|}
'''Year to Date'''
{| class="wikitable"
| rowspan="2" |
| colspan="3" |'''BATTERY ELECTRIC'''
| colspan="3" |'''PLUG-IN HYBRID'''
| colspan="3" |'''HYBRID ELECTRIC1'''
| colspan="3" |'''OTHERS2'''
| colspan="3" |'''PETROL'''
| colspan="3" |'''DIESEL'''
| colspan="3" |'''TOTAL'''
|-
|'''Jan-Feb''' '''2024'''
|'''Jan-Feb''' '''2023'''
|'''% change''' '''24/23'''
|'''Jan-Feb''' '''2024'''
|'''Jan-Feb''' '''2023'''
|'''% change''' '''24/23'''
|'''Jan-Feb''' '''2024'''
|'''Jan-Feb''' '''2023'''
|'''% change''' '''24/23'''
|'''Jan-Feb''' '''2024'''
|'''Jan-Feb''' '''2023'''
|'''% change''' '''24/23'''
|'''Jan-Feb''' '''2024'''
|'''Jan-Feb''' '''2023'''
|'''% change''' '''24/23'''
|'''Jan-Feb''' '''2024'''
|'''Jan-Feb''' '''2023'''
|'''% change''' '''24/23'''
|'''Jan-Feb''' '''2024'''
|'''Jan-Feb''' '''2023'''
|'''% change''' '''24/23'''
|-
|France
|45,842
|34,224
| +33.9
|22,281
|20,794
| +7.2
|75,037
|55,172
| +36.0
|12,056
|10,258
| +17.5
|89,822
|90,461
| -0.7
|19,841
|27,266
| -27.2
|264,879
|238,175
| +11.2
|-
|Germany
|49,953
|50,611
| -1.3
|28,969
|20,769
| +39.5
|106,894
|88,983
| +20.1
|3,206
|2,152
| +49.0
|158,830
|145,279
| +9.3
|83,089
|77,663
| +7.0
|430,941
|385,457
| +11.8
|-
|Italy
|7,968
|8,188
| -2.7
|8,747
|11,690
| -25.2
|109,270
|94,858
| +15.2
|30,353
|26,917
| +12.8
|89,240
|68,611
| +30.1
|43,370
|48,322
| -10.2
|288,948
|258,586
| +11.7
|-
|Spain
|7,180
|6,249
| +14.9
|10,141
|8,921
| +13.7
|55,076
|43,522
| +26.5
|5,179
|3,538
| +46.4
|56,642
|57,370
| -1.3
|15,815
|18,439
| -14.2
|150,033
|138,039
| +8.7
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''198,850'''
|'''169,351'''
|'''+17.4'''
|'''130,942'''
|'''111,534'''
|'''+17.4'''
|'''500,534'''
|'''402,441'''
|'''+24.4'''
|'''62,847'''
|'''54,061'''
|'''+16.3'''
|'''615,797'''
|'''584,549'''
|'''+5.3'''
|'''227,709'''
|'''240,280'''
|'''-5.2'''
|'''1,736,679'''
|'''1,562,216'''
|'''+11.2'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''17,296'''
|'''13,563'''
|'''+27.5'''
|'''3,657'''
|'''4,067'''
|'''-10.1'''
|'''10,354'''
|'''9,470'''
|'''+9.3'''
|'''22'''
|'''19'''
|'''+15.8'''
|'''11,627'''
|'''13,475'''
|'''-13.7'''
|'''4,739'''
|'''4,958'''
|'''-4.4'''
|'''47,695'''
|'''45,552'''
|'''+4.7'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|35,926
|29,607
| +21.3
|18,042
|13,832
| +30.4
|73,575
|63,087
| +16.6
|0
|0
|
|92,815
|91,281
| +1.7
|7,404
|8,628
| -14.2
|227,762
|206,435
| +10.3
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''252,072'''
|'''212,521'''
|'''+18.6'''
|'''152,641'''
|'''129,433'''
|'''+17.9'''
|'''584,463'''
|'''474,998'''
|'''+23.0'''
|'''62,869'''
|'''54,080'''
|'''+16.3'''
|'''720,239'''
|'''689,305'''
|'''+4.5'''
|'''239,852'''
|'''253,866'''
|'''-5.5'''
|'''2,012,136'''
|'''1,814,203'''
|'''+10.9'''
|}

==== January 2024 ====
In January 2024, the EU new car market rebounded from the slowdown experienced in December 2023, with year-on-year car registrations increasing by 12.1% to 851,690 units. Notably, the bloc’s major markets all saw significant growth, with Germany (+19.1%), Italy (+10.6%), France (+9.2%), and Spain (+7.3%) achieving either high single-digit or doubledigit gains.<ref>https://www.acea.auto/files/Press_release_car_registrations-January_2024.pdf</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="4" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!January
2024
!January
2023
!% change
24/23
!January
2024
!January
2023
!% change
24/23
!January
2024
!January
2023
!% change
24/23
!January
2024
!January
2023
!% change
24/23
!January
2024
! colspan="2" |January
2023
!% change
24/23
!January
2024
!January
2023
!% change
24/23
!January
2024
!January
2023
!% change
24/23
|-
|France
|20,017
|14,629
| +36.8
|10,549
|10,301
| +2.4
|33,810
|26,030
| +29.9
|6,561
|5,087
| +29.0
|41,727
| colspan="2" |43,340
| -3.7
|9,620
|12,552
| -23.4
|122,284
|111,939
| +9.2
|-
|Germany
|22,474
|18,136
| +23.9
|14,394
|8,853
| +62.6
|52,102
|41,919
| +24.3
|1,923
|1,187
| +62.0
|81,724
| colspan="2" |69,922
| +16.9
|40,936
|39,230
| +4.3
|213,553
|179,247
| +19.1
|-
|Italy
|2,961
|3,331
| -11.1
|4,084
|6,102
| -33.1
|53,827
|47,119
| +14.2
|15,764
|13,513
| +16.7
|43,335
| colspan="2" |34,192
| +26.7
|21,914
|24,002
| -8.7
|141,885
|128,259
| +10.6
|-
|Spain
|3,375
|2,952
| +14.3
|4,578
|4,108
| +11.4
|26,451
|20,902
| +26.5
|2,762
|1,798
| +53.6
|23,966
| colspan="2" |25,868
| -7.4
|7,553
|8,410
| -10.2
|68,685
|64,038
| +7.3
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''92,741'''
|'''71,954'''
|'''+28.9'''
|'''66,660'''
|'''53,838'''
|'''+23.8'''
|'''245,068'''
|'''198,481'''
|'''+23.5'''
|'''32,892'''
|'''27,231'''
|'''+20.8'''
|'''299,914'''
| colspan="2" |'''288,249'''
|'''+4.0'''
|'''114,415'''
|'''120,263'''
|'''-4.9'''
|'''851,690'''
|'''760,016'''
|'''+12.1'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''7,250'''
|'''4,273'''
|'''+69.7'''
|'''1,766'''
|'''1,681'''
|'''+5.1'''
|'''4,856'''
|'''5,079'''
|'''-4.4'''
|'''8'''
|'''11'''
|'''-27.3'''
|'''5,051'''
| colspan="2" |'''6,064'''
|'''-16.7'''
|'''1,884'''
|'''1,918'''
|'''-1.8'''
|'''20,815'''
|'''19,026'''
|'''+9.4'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|20,935
|17,297
| +21.0
|11,944
|9,109
| +31.1
|47,435
|41,338
| +14.7
|0
|0
|
|58,236
| colspan="2" |58,970
| -1.2
|4,326
|5,280
| -18.1
|142,876
|131,994
| +8.2
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''120,926'''
|'''93,524'''
|'''+29.3'''
|'''80,370'''
|'''64,628'''
|'''+24.4'''
|'''297,359'''
|'''244,898'''
|'''+21.4'''
|'''32,900'''
|'''27,242'''
|'''+20.8'''
|'''363,201'''
| colspan="2" |'''353,283'''
|'''+2.8'''
|'''120,625'''
|'''127,461'''
|'''-5.4'''
|'''1,015,381'''
|'''911,036'''
|'''+11.5'''
|}

==== December 2023 ====
In 2023, the EU car market concluded with a solid 13.9% expansion compared to 2022, reaching a full-year volume of 10.5 million units. All EU markets grew in the past year except for Hungary (-3.4%). Double-digit gains were recorded in most markets, including three of the largest: Italy (+18.9%), Spain (+16.7%), and France (+16.1%). Conversely, Germany recorded a more modest 7.3% year-on-year increase, influenced by its weaker December performance.<ref>https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/new-car-registrations-13-9-in-2023-battery-electric-14-6-market-share/</ref>

'''Monthly'''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="4" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!December
2023
!December
2022
!% change
23/22
!December
2023
!December
2022
!% change
23/22
!December
2023
!December
2022
!% change
23/22
!December
2023
!December
2022
!% change
23/22
!December
2023
! colspan="2" |December
2022
!% change
23/22
!December
2023
!December
2022
!% change
23/22
!December
2023
!December
2022
!% change
23/22
|-
|France
|37,355
|24,944
| +49.8
|17,058
|14,544
| +17.3
|48,138
|36,294
| +32.6
|5,015
|4,924
| +1.8
|56,700
| colspan="2" |55,810
| +1.6
|16,739
|21,511
| -22.2
|181,005
|158,027
| +14.5
|-
|Germany
|54,654
|104,325
| -47.6
|17,894
|69,801
| -74.4
|55,687
|40,359
| +38.0
|1,351
|1,383
| -2.3
|74,894
| colspan="2" |64,525
| +16.1
|37,403
|33,925
| +10.3
|241,883
|314,318
| -23.0
|-
|Italy
|6,806
|4,520
| +50.6
|4,482
|5,119
| -12.4
|38,855
|36,662
| +6.0
|10,247
|10,532
| -2.7
|33,820
| colspan="2" |27,073
| +24.9
|16,901
|21,055
| -19.7
|111,111
|104,961
| +5.9
|-
|Spain
|5,896
|3,405
| +73.2
|6,546
|4,634
| +41.3
|27,924
|22,463
| +24.3
|3,062
|1,822
| +68.1
|29,422
| colspan="2" |29,450
| -0.1
|8,922
|12,136
| -26.5
|81,772
|73,910
| +10.6
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''160,700'''
|'''193,271'''
|'''-16.9'''
|'''71,546'''
|'''119,553'''
|'''-40.2'''
|'''229,567'''
|'''182,140'''
|'''+26.0'''
|'''25,504'''
|'''24,297'''
|'''+5.0'''
|'''274,477'''
| colspan="2" |'''261,126'''
|'''+5.1'''
|'''105,258'''
|'''115,854'''
|'''-9.1'''
|'''867,052'''
|'''896,241'''
|'''-3.3'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''17,439'''
|'''40,487'''
|'''-56.9'''
|'''4,795'''
|'''5,096'''
|'''-5.9'''
|'''7,829'''
|'''7,961'''
|'''-1.7'''
|'''4'''
|'''20'''
|'''-80.0'''
|'''7,786'''
| colspan="2" |'''8,730'''
|'''-10.8'''
|'''2,730'''
|'''3,388'''
|'''-19.4'''
|'''40,583'''
|'''65,682'''
|'''-38.2'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|27,841
|42,285
| -34.2
|12,162
|8,367
| +45.4
|41,838
|31,714
| +31.9
|0
|0
|
|54,360
| colspan="2" |42,090
| +29.2
|4,891
|4,006
| +22.1
|141,092
|128,462
| +9.8
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''205,980'''
|'''276,043'''
|'''-25.4'''
|'''88,503'''
|'''133,016'''
|'''-33.5'''
|'''279,234'''
|'''221,815'''
|'''+25.9'''
|'''25,508'''
|'''24,317'''
|'''+4.9'''
|'''336,623'''
| colspan="2" |'''311,946'''
|'''+7.9'''
|'''112,879'''
|'''123,248'''
|'''-8.4'''
|'''1,048,727'''
|'''1,090,385'''
|'''-3.8'''
|}
'''Year to Date'''
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |
! colspan="3" |BATTERY ELECTRIC
! colspan="3" |PLUG-IN HYBRID
! colspan="3" |HYBRID ELECTRIC1
! colspan="3" |OTHERS2
! colspan="3" |PETROL
! colspan="3" |DIESEL
! colspan="3" |TOTAL
|-
!Jan-Dec
2023
!Jan-Dec
2022
!% change
23/22
!Jan-Dec
2023
!Jan-Dec
2022
!% change
23/22
!Jan-Dec
2023
!Jan-Dec
2022
!% change
23/22
!Jan-Dec
2023
!Jan-Dec
2022
!% change
23/22
!Jan-Dec
2023
!Jan-Dec
2022
!% change
23/22
!Jan-Dec
2023
!Jan-Dec
2022
!% change
23/22
!Jan-Dec
2023
!Jan-Dec
2022
!% change
23/22
|-
|France
|298,219
|202,929
| +47.0
|162,950
|126,547
| +28.8
|432,299
|332,669
| +29.9
|67,945
|58,904
| +15.3
|641,582
|568,881
| +12.8
|171,728
|239,105
| -28.2
|1,774,723
|1,529,035
| +16.1
|-
|Germany
|524,219
|470,559
| +11.4
|175,724
|362,093
| -51.5
|664,580
|465,227
| +42.9
|14,845
|17,759
| -16.4
|978,660
|863,445
| +13.3
|486,581
|472,274
| +3.0
|2,844,609
|2,651,357
| +7.3
|-
|Italy
|66,265
|49,169
| +34.8
|69,008
|64,632
| +6.8
|565,551
|450,938
| +25.4
|143,914
|128,754
| +11.8
|447,298
|365,465
| +22.4
|273,295
|257,968
| +5.9
|1,565,331
|1,316,926
| +18.9
|-
|Spain
|51,612
|30,521
| +69.1
|62,164
|47,791
| +30.1
|302,845
|239,672
| +26.4
|26,343
|14,935
| +76.4
|387,749
|340,863
| +13.8
|118,646
|139,594
| -15.0
|949,359
|813,376
| +16.7
|-
|'''EUROPEAN UNION'''
|'''1,538,621'''
|'''1,123,444'''
|'''+37.0'''
|'''813,480'''
|'''874,777'''
|'''-7.0'''
|'''2,716,963'''
|'''2,098,608'''
|'''+29.5'''
|'''320,638'''
|'''277,014'''
|'''+15.7'''
|'''3,724,646'''
|'''3,368,726'''
|'''+10.6'''
|'''1,433,368'''
|'''1,520,940'''
|'''-5.8'''
|'''10,547,716'''
|'''9,263,509'''
|'''+13.9'''
|-
|'''EFTA'''
|'''166,096'''
|'''183,993'''
|'''-9.7'''
|'''35,146'''
|'''38,228'''
|'''-8.1'''
|'''79,305'''
|'''69,253'''
|'''+14.5'''
|'''77'''
|'''225'''
|'''-65.8'''
|'''87,194'''
|'''91,133'''
|'''-4.3'''
|'''28,893'''
|'''34,098'''
|'''-15.3'''
|'''396,711'''
|'''416,930'''
|'''-4.8'''
|-
|United Kingdom
|314,684
|267,204
| +17.8
|141,311
|101,414
| +39.3
|601,071
|479,992
| +25.2
|0
|0
|
|774,487
|682,472
| +13.5
|71,501
|82,981
| -13.8
|1,903,054
|1,614,063
| +17.9
|-
|'''EU + EFTA + UK'''
|'''2,019,401'''
|'''1,574,641'''
|'''+28.2'''
|'''989,937'''
|'''1,014,419'''
|'''-2.4'''
|'''3,397,339'''
|'''2,647,853'''
|'''+28.3'''
|'''320,715'''
|'''277,239'''
|'''+15.7'''
|'''4,586,327'''
|'''4,142,331'''
|'''+10.7'''
|'''1,533,762'''
|'''1,638,019'''
|'''-6.4'''
|'''12,847,481'''
|'''11,294,502'''
|'''+13.7'''
|}

==== 2022 ====
<ref>https://www.acea.auto/files/20230201_PRPC-fuel_Q4-2022_FINAL-1.pdf</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
!<ref name=":1" />
!20221
!2021
!% change
22/21
!% share
2022
|-
!EUROPE
|12,830,910
|14,326,088
| -10.4
|19.4
|-
!European Union
|9,255,926
|9,700,089
| -4.6
|14.0
|-
!EFTA
|416,946
|427,546
| -2.5
|0.6
|-
!United Kingdom
|1,614,063
|1,647,181
| -2.0
|2.4
|-
!Russia
|578,042
|1,548,907
| -62.7
|0.9
|-
!Turkey
|571,329
|561,853
| +1.7
|0.9
|-
!Ukraine
|37,247
|105,591
| -64.7
|0.1
|-
!Others: Europe
|357,357
|334,921
| +6.7
|0.5
|}

=== Forecast ===

==== 2023 ====
New car registrations are expected to increase by around 5% in 2023. If achieved, this would put registration volumes broadly on a par with 2020, but still far below the 13 million units recorded prior to the pandemic in 2019.<ref>https://www.acea.auto/files/Economic-and-Market-Report_Full-year-2022.pdf</ref>4

==== 2024 ====

* European Union new car sales will rise by only 2.5% in 2024, a slowdown compared to a 12% increase in 2023, European automobile manufacturers association ACEA forecast.<ref>https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-new-car-sales-growth-slow-ev-share-rise-2024-acea-2023-11-29/</ref>
* The 2023 forecast is an upgrade from ACEA's forecast in January of 5% growth. Still, new car registrations at 10.4 million euros will be nearly 20% below record 2019 levels.
* ACEA said the share of battery electric vehicles would rise from 14-14.5% this year to about 20% in 2024.

== Trade Balance ==

=== 2022 ===
{| class="wikitable"
!Trade in volume
By type, in units<ref>https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA_Pocket_Guide_2023-2024.pdf</ref>
!Cars
!Vans
!Trucks
!Buses
!TOTAL
|-
! colspan="6" |2022
|-
|Imports
|3,243,811
|334,387
|308,057
|13,067
|3,899,322
|-
|Exports
|5,552,244
|434,783
|256,726
|13,837
|6,257,590
|-
! colspan="6" |2021
|-
|Imports
|3,112,073
|334,270
|82,281
|47,330
|3,575,954
|-
|Exports
|5,039,234
|473,089
|166,804
|18,040
|5,697,167
|-
! colspan="6" |% change 22/21
|-
|Imports
| +4.2%
| +0.04%
| +274.4%
| -72.4%
| +9.0%
|-
|Exports
| +10.2%
| -8.1%
| +53.9%
| -23.3%
| +9.8%
|}

=== Balance Car Passnenger EU ===
{| class="wikitable"
!
!Trada Balance Units
!Y/Y
!Trade Balance (M)
!Y/Y
|-
|2022
| 2,308,433
|19.78%
| 95,689
|30.97%
|-
|2021
| 1,927,161
| -5.61%
| 73,062
|5.09%
|-
|2020
| 2,041,728
| -6.36%
| 69,526
| -9.92%
|-
|2019
| 2,180,504
| -12.12%
| 77,183
| -9.10%
|-
|2018
| 2,481,159
| -14.55%
| 84,912
| -7.42%
|-
|2017
| 2,903,733
|
| 91,718
|
|}

==== Trade Balance in Units Specific Countries ====
{| class="wikitable"
!
!2017
!2018
!2019
!2020
!2021
!2022
|-
|United Kingdom
|1,176,531
|1,081,130
|1,164,690
|800,915
|573,372
|649,537
|-
|United States
|713,179
|662,853
|470,564
|296,673
|337,191
|438,351
|-
|China
|367,830
|331,897
|269,493
|225,535
| -26,610
| -120,064
|-
|Turkey
| -288,138
| -456,567
| -516,708
| -114,132
| -141,933
| -129,766
|-
|Switzerland
|201,785
|186,569
|191,240
|157,592
|150,353
|162,705
|-
|South Korea
| -248,770
| -270,836
| -286,094
| -130,795
| -231,741
| -227,828
|-
|Japan
| -311,748
| -339,990
| -447,317
| -313,560
| -224,350
| -220,244
|-
|'''WORLD'''
|'''2,903,733'''
|'''2,481,159'''
|'''2,180,504'''
|'''2,041,728'''
|'''1,927,161'''
|'''2,308,433'''
|}
'''Exports Units'''
{| class="wikitable"
!<ref>https://www.acea.auto/figure/eu-passenger-car-exports-main-destinations-in-units/</ref>
!2017
!2018
!2019
!2020
!2021
!2022
!% change 22/21
!% share 2022
|-
|United Kingdom
|2,077,829
|1,922,532
|1,865,578
|1,307,320
|980,114
|1,090,261
|11.2
|19.6
|-
|United States
|952,965
|919,264
|819,653
|684,393
|645,699
|704,404
|9.1
|12.7
|-
|Ukraine
|88,856
|86,061
|149,384
|195,298
|207,664
|436,336
|110.1
|7.9
|-
|China
|467,684
|465,177
|402,883
|395,338
|408,882
|401,817
| -1.7
|7.2
|-
|Turkey
|430,025
|258,328
|184,401
|379,948
|316,922
|322,290
|1.7
|5.8
|-
|Switzerland
|265,898
|252,446
|249,754
|205,641
|204,322
|207,213
|1.4
|3.7
|-
|South Korea
|163,182
|164,978
|155,776
|187,698
|146,140
|183,175
|25.3
|3.3
|-
|Japan
|240,269
|241,395
|227,019
|170,777
|177,109
|170,270
| -3.9
|3.1
|-
|Serbia
|117,438
|137,970
|130,399
|122,479
|121,718
|164,124
|34.8
|3
|-
|Norway
|131,917
|124,356
|111,772
|98,677
|122,854
|138,614
|12.8
|2.5
|-
|'''WORLD'''
|'''6,768,781'''
|'''6,444,182'''
|'''6,155,087'''
|'''5,098,589'''
|'''5,039,234'''
|'''5,552,244'''
|'''10.2'''
|'''100'''
|}
'''Imports Units'''
{| class="wikitable"
!<ref>https://www.acea.auto/figure/eu-passenger-car-imports-main-countries-of-origin-in-units/</ref>
!2017
!2018
!2019
!2020
!2021
!2022
!% change 22/21
!% share 2022
|-
|China
|99,854
|133,280
|133,390
|169,803
|435,492
|521,881
|19.8
|16.1
|-
|Turkey
|718,163
|714,895
|701,109
|494,080
|458,855
|452,056
| -1.5
|13.9
|-
|United Kingdom
|901,298
|841,402
|700,888
|506,405
|406,742
|440,724
|8.4
|13.6
|-
|South Korea
|411,952
|435,814
|441,870
|318,493
|377,881
|411,003
|8.8
|12.7
|-
|Japan
|552,017
|581,385
|674,336
|484,337
|401,459
|390,514
| -2.7
|12
|-
|Morocco
|222,965
|266,276
|280,731
|240,488
|271,030
|329,049
|21.4
|10.1
|-
|United States
|239,786
|256,411
|349,089
|387,720
|308,508
|266,053
| -13.8
|8.2
|-
|Mexico
|228,668
|262,147
|218,077
|170,600
|178,213
|181,241
|1.7
|5.6
|-
|South Africa
|140,966
|172,407
|213,438
|124,886
|93,456
|121,142
|29.6
|3.7
|-
|Switzerland
|64,113
|65,877
|58,514
|48,049
|53,969
|44,508
| -17.5
|1.4
|-
|'''WORLD'''
|'''3,865,048'''
|'''3,963,023'''
|'''3,974,583'''
|'''3,056,861'''
|'''3,112,073'''
|'''3,243,811'''
|'''4.2'''
|'''100'''
|}

==== Trade balance in Value Specific Countries ====
{| class="wikitable"
!In million €
!2017
!2018
!2019
!2020
!2021
!2022
|-
|United States
|24,284
|23,560
|19,292
|12,892
|17,235
|27,800
|-
|United Kingdom
|22,640
|21,310
|23,193
|18,778
|13,439
|17,377
|-
|China
|17,197
|17,945
|17,915
|16,412
|15,175
|14,887
|-
|South Korea
|322
|110
| -870
|1,318
| -778
|570
|-
|Switzerland
|6,689
|6,304
|6,697
|6,007
|6,076
|7,145
|-
|Turkey
| -1,910
| -4,272
| -5,702
| -377
| -1,489
| -216
|-
|Japan
| -1,149
| -1,597
| -3,675
| -2,481
| -966
| -1,521
|-
|'''WORLD'''
|'''91,718'''
|'''84,912'''
|'''77,183'''
|'''69,526'''
|'''73,062'''
|'''95,689'''
|}
'''Exports Value'''
{| class="wikitable"
!In million € <ref>https://www.acea.auto/figure/eu-passenger-car-exports-main-destinations-by-value/</ref>
!2017
!2018
!2019
!2020
!2021
!2022
!% change 22/21
!% share 2022
|-
|United States
|30,664
|29,010
|28,727
|23,372
|25,375
|36,424
| +43.5
|23.2
|-
|United Kingdom
|37,854
|35,516
|36,460
|28,086
|21,717
|26,480
| +21.9
|16.8
|-
|China
|17,526
|18,338
|18,632
|18,178
|21,071
|24,256
| +15.1
|15.4
|-
|South Korea
|5,508
|5,899
|5,679
|6,829
|6,333
|8,441
| +33.3
|5.4
|-
|Switzerland
|6,973
|6,601
|6,990
|6,278
|6,402
|7,460
| +16.5
|4.7
|-
|Turkey
|5,990
|3,875
|2,581
|5,953
|4,650
|6,088
| +30.9
|3.9
|-
|Japan
|7,170
|7,189
|7,040
|5,630
|6,083
|6,085
| +0.0
|3.9
|-
|Norway
|3,472
|3,297
|3,196
|3,112
|4,306
|5,737
| +33.2
|3.6
|-
|Canada
|3,545
|3,316
|2,887
|1,900
|2,478
|3,377
| +36.3
|2.1
|-
|Australia
|3,586
|3,284
|2,804
|2,074
|2,607
|3,226
| +23.7
|2.1
|-
|'''WORLD'''
|'''147,426'''
|'''141,008'''
|'''140,267'''
|'''121,117'''
|'''126,475'''
|'''157,315'''
|'''+24.4'''
|'''100.0'''
|}
'''Imports Value'''
{| class="wikitable"
!In million €<ref>https://www.acea.auto/figure/eu-passenger-car-imports-main-countries-of-origin-by-value/</ref>
!2017
!2018
!2019
!2020
!2021
!2022
!% change 22/21
!% share 2022
|-
|China
|329
|393
|717
|1,766
|5,896
|9,369
| +58.9
|15.2
|-
|United Kingdom
|15,214
|14,206
|13,267
|9,308
|8,278
|9,103
| +10.0
|14.8
|-
|United States
|6,380
|5,450
|9,435
|10,480
|8,140
|8,624
| +5.9
|14.0
|-
|South Korea
|5,186
|5,789
|6,549
|5,511
|7,111
|7,871
| +10.7
|12.8
|-
|Japan
|8,319
|8,786
|10,715
|8,111
|7,049
|7,606
| +7.9
|12.3
|-
|Turkey
|7,900
|8,147
|8,283
|6,330
|6,139
|6,304
| +2.7
|10.2
|-
|Mexico
|4,600
|5,179
|4,962
|4,109
|4,588
|5,081
| +10.7
|8.2
|-
|Morocco
|1,773
|2,124
|2,308
|2,191
|2,840
|3,472
| +22.2
|5.6
|-
|South Africa
|2,930
|3,631
|4,562
|2,380
|1,916
|2,914
| +52.0
|4.7
|-
|Switzerland
|284
|297
|293
|271
|326
|315
| -3.3
|0.5
|-
|'''WORLD'''
|'''55,708'''
|'''56,096'''
|'''63,084'''
|'''51,591'''
|'''53,413'''
|'''61,626'''
|'''+15.4'''
|'''100.0'''
|}

== Prices ==

=== Used Cars ===
The AUTO1 Group Price Index shows the monthly evolution of used car prices across Europe. By analyzing AUTO1 Group’s database of around 3.6 million used car transactions Europe-wide, AUTO1 Group has developed a pioneering index to improve data transparency in the used car market and give insights into wholesale prices. The starting point of the AUTO1 Group Price Index is January 2015 with a reference value of 100. The AUTO1 Group Price Index is published on a monthly basis.
[[File:0624 auto1 group index graph.png|alt=|center|thumb|915x915px|https://www.auto1-group.com/press/pressrelease/auto1-group-price-index-march-2024/]]
[[File:0624 auto1 group index table.png|center|thumb|920x920px]]

==== June 2024 ====
Y/Y used prices continue to show a decline, with used car prices falling by 9.2 % from June 2023 (152.2) to June this year (138.2).<ref>https://www.auto1-group.com/press/pressrelease/auto1-group-price-index-june-2024/</ref>

* Q2 2024 increased by 0.65% Q/Q vs -6.53 in Q1 2024.
* Year-to-date, the index moved from 142.0 in January to 138.2 in June, reflecting a 2.7 % decrease, and a -5.92% from December level.

==== March 2024 ====
The AUTO1 Group Price Index shows a continuous decrease for used car prices in 2024, dropping from 141.2 in February to 137.3 in March 2024 (-2.8%). After stable wholesale used car prices in 2023, with a slight decrease by 1.6% from January to December 2023, the first quarter of 2024 shows a more dynamic price environment. <ref>https://www.auto1-group.com/press/pressrelease/auto1-group-price-index-march-2024/</ref>

* Year to date, used car prices have declined by -3.3%.
* Year over year, used car wholesale prices decreased by 9%, with the index moving from 150.9 in March 2023 to 137.3 in March this year. Used car prices are still 18.3% higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic compared to March 2019 (116.1).

==== January 2024 ====

* The year 2024 starts off with dropping used car prices. The AUTO1 Group Price Index, the European Used Car Price Report, showed a decrease of 3.3% in used car prices moving from 146.9 in December 2023 to 142.0 in January 2024.<ref>https://www.auto1-group.com/press/pressrelease/auto1-group-price-index-january-2024/</ref>
* Year over year, used car wholesale prices decreased by 4.9%, with the index moving from 149.3 in January 2023 to 142.0 in January of this year. However, used car prices are still 24.8% higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic.
* Used car prices are down %17.2 from the peak.

==== December 2023 ====

* Throughout 2023, prices remained overall stable with a slight decrease by 1.6% from January to December. Prices in December were still 25% higher than in December 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.
* Prices decline -0.7% in Q4 2023<ref>https://www.auto1-group.com/press/pressrelease/auto1-group-price-index-december-2023/</ref>

==== September 2023 ====

* The European Used Car Price Report, continues to show a stable used car price environment in September 2023. The index showed a '''slight increase of 0.4% moving from 147.4 in August to 148.0 in September.'''
* '''Year over year, used car wholesale prices decreased by 12%''', with the index moving from 168.3 in September 2022 to 148.0 in September of this year.
* Year to date, prices remain stable with a slight decrease by 0.9% from January to September.<ref>https://www.auto1-group.com/press/pressrelease/auto1-group-price-index-used-car-prices-slightly-increased-in-september_70/</ref>

==== August 2023 ====

* The AUTO1 Group Price Index, The European Used Car Price Report, remained stable in August 2023. The Index showed a slight decrease of '''0.5% moving from 148.2 in July to 147.4 in August.'''<ref>https://www.auto1-group.com/press/pressrelease/auto1-group-price-index-used-car-prices-remained-stable-in-august/</ref>
* '''Year over year, used car wholesale prices decreased by 13.7%,''' with the index moving from 170.8 in August 2022 to 147.4 in August of this year. However, used car prices are still '''25.5% higher than before COVID-19 pandemic in August 2019.'''
* '''Year to date, prices remain stable with a slight decrease by 1.3% from January to August.'''

*

== Competitiveness Challenge ==

=== <big>Moody's August 2023</big> ===

==== Market Share ====
Market share data suggest that European OEMs’ leadership position is being challenged as new entrants, especially from China, gain traction. Our analysis also suggests that European market conditions for local development and production are becoming less competitive.<ref name=":0" />
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-05 110336.png|center|thumb|635x635px|<ref name=":0">https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/a-road-map-for-europes-automotive-industry#/</ref>]]

* '''Since 2019, European incumbents have lost six percentage points of market share in their home market and five percentage points in China.''' Meanwhile, Chinese OEMs are gaining ground in both China and Europe, reaching 45 percent market share in their home market in 2022 and octupling their market share in Europe between 2020 and 2022.
* Besides market share, European OEMs also face the challenge of running profitable BEV businesses.
* '''In the premium segment, European OEMs still hold 71 percent of global sales'''. But this segment is also becoming more challenging to hold: '''newcomers claimed 18 percent of the premium market in 2022.'''

==== Supply Chain ====
Research shows that successful automakers are developing cars defined by software, resulting in a '''tripling of software content per vehicle since 2015'''. As a result of this shift toward more centralized computing, portions of vehicles may become commoditized, and scale and incremental improvements may become the main drivers of competitiveness.

Traditional suppliers find themselves sandwiched between “high-tech commodity” companies that provide semiconductors and batteries upstream and cost-pressured incumbent OEMs downstream. This dynamic threatens European supply chains. Consider that the current battery value chain is largely controlled by Chinese companies.

To counteract recent developments and establish a robust supply network similar to Europe's during the ICE era, major players in the industry are forming strategic partnerships. These partnerships aim to ensure access to essential resources and manufacturing capacity, particularly for batteries and semiconductors. Some established companies intend to enhance their influence over crucial parts of the value chain by collaborating with mine operators or investing in mining operations. However, d'''espite these initiatives being a positive step, the projected supply and capacity are still insufficient to meet the region's anticipated demand by 2030.''' Therefore, there is a pressing need for accelerated efforts in this direction.
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-05 112653.png|center|thumb|627x627px|<ref name=":0" />]]

==== Road Map For Competitiveness ====
'''European automotive OEMs and suppliers earn about three times the revenue of their Chinese counterparts and five times the EBIT, which means the European industry can act from a position of strength'''. In short, the ecosystem approach that made Europe strong in the ICE era has to be translated to serve the era of software-defined, electrified cars. A rapid response from OEMs and suppliers in the European auto industry will be important. But other stakeholders—including adjacent industries such as the energy, research, and public sectors—would also need to act collaboratively to provide an environment that enables success for the European automotive industry (and mobility ecosystem) of the future. In short, the ecosystem approach that made Europe strong in the ICE era has to be translated to serve the era of software-defined, electrified cars.
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-05 115416.png|center|thumb|580x580px|<ref name=":0" />]]

* '''Traditional consumer segmentation would need to be adapted for the era of software-defined electric vehicles''', with more-detailed consumer profiles and more-granular user profiles.
* '''Chinese OEMs''' can turn their cost advantage into a competitive edge: our analysis shows that '''their costs are 20 to 30 percent lower than those of European OEMs'''. European OEMs could close up to 20 percentage points of the cost gap by adopting structural product design, vertically integrating battery production, scaling EV production, and improving productivity. As for the remaining 5 to 10 percentage-point cost gap, European OEMs could identify differentiating features that consumers would be willing to pay a premium.
* European OEMs and suppliers would need a fundamental strategic overhaul to regain competitiveness in China and meet the preferences of Chinese customers. Chinese OEMs offer significantly lower price points, and their products are more appealing and tailored to Chinese consumers’ needs and preferences. According to our research, the average '''customer in China is 34 years old, compared with 58 in Europe. These consumers have significantly different purchasing criteria.'''
* We project that the '''European supply–demand gap for batteries will reach almost 40 percent, or 500 gigawatt-hours (GWh), by 2030.''' '''To cover European battery demand locally, an additional 20 gigafactories, a €35 billion investment, would be needed. The continent would also need 37 new semiconductor fabs to cover local demand, requiring a €190 billion investment.'''
* According to our analysis, '''only one European manufacturer is among the top ten in terms of market capitalization for battery manufacturing''', while in semiconductors, Europe needs to close the capability gap for the next wave of computing to deliver functionalities such as ADAS.
* 51 percent of consumers worldwide would consider switching to some form of ADAS car in the future. To remain competitive, the European industry may need to form a cross-industry alliance.
* Software is essential to the future of the automotive industry. But according to our analysis, '''only 15 to 20 percent of current R&D workers at European incumbents have software skills, compared with almost 45 percent at new entrants.''' To shrink the gap, industry stakeholders would need to find holistic solutions
* Another critical catalyst of the European industry’s transition is EV infrastructure. According to our analysis''', the industry will need a cumulative €300 billion worth of infrastructure investments in electricity generation, the electricity grid, EV chargers, and hydrogen refueling systems through 2030. European stakeholders have begun to install public chargers at a pace of 2,000 charging points per week. But to meet demand, decision makers would need to build out charging infrastructure to the tune of 6,000 to 14,000 charging points per week.'''
* the wind and solar assets required to fulfill the corresponding demand for '''energy with renewable sources would require four times as many workers in Europe by 2030 than are currently available.'''

=== <big>BCG Research September 2023</big> ===

==== Threats ====
Traditionally the European auto industry benefited from five advantages: technological leadership, cost efficiency, brand value, stable geopolitics, and the Chinese sales market. All are currently threatened.<ref>https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/european-auto-industry-is-under-pressure</ref>
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-07 113242.png|center|thumb|793x793px|https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/european-auto-industry-is-under-pressure]]

* Technological Leadership: '''the advantages that European OEMs had in ICE design and high-quality engineering are increasingly losing their importance''' as the changeover to electric and software-defined vehicles accelerate'''s'''. In the electric vehicle (EV) realm, the '''European auto sector is having difficulty keeping up with other global players in battery cell design, power electronics, extending battery range, and innovative rapid charging technologies'''. Companies skilled in designing software first and hardware second are increasingly poised for market leadership. Names like X-PENG, NIO and BYD in China and US BEV companies Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian are viewed as serious new competitors.
* Cost: '''US and Chinese factories rapidly adopt robotics, moving closer to more sophisticated automation'''. Moreover, many of these companies have more flexible cost structures because their labor outlays are lower due to little or no unionization at their plants. And '''energy price volatility is likely to be a permanent fixture, the result of geopolitical conflicts and resource scarcity, which will affect European automakers more than such companies in other regions.'''
* Brand: In a huge strategic push, '''China is promoting its technological independence and breakthroughs while upgrading the Made in China reputation to no longer stand for cheap production'''. EV-related sales spurt in China will be difficult for companies with an old-fashioned and staid brand image to navigate. It is worth noting, as well, that some Chinese EV companies are piggybacking on existing dealer networks in Europe to quickly introduce their brands to local consumers, hoping to replace European OEMs in their home markets.
* Geopolitics: '''Planned deglobalization is more the norm now to guard against political uncertainties and disruptio'''n. Supply chains are shrinking as automakers in developed countries are encouraged to source parts and materials locally.
* Chinese Sales Market: The rise of Chinese EV makers catering to local preferences has forced European companies to lower their prices in China, as they struggle to sell as planned. '''The Chinese market is becoming more challenging for European OEMs as Chinese competitors improve and nationalism grows.'''

==== Three Future Scenarios ====
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-07 121926.png|center|thumb|782x782px|https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/european-auto-industry-is-under-pressure]]
'''Scenario 1 is the least desirable outcome but is perhaps a window on the direction that the European auto industry is moving unless steps are taken to stem the bleeding'''. If Europe's investment in local battery and semi-conductor production does not speed up, supply of such critical items is likely to remain prone to shortages and global dependencies.

The '''European companies are beset by a lack of developed local technology talent and by stringent regulations that hinder the ability to catch up to their rivals in software and EV advances'''. These shortcomings also extend to ADAS and battery breakthroughs as well as factory automation. Focused investments in R&D and the acquisition, training, and retention of local IT talent is also needed to combat this.

Importantly, '''European OEMs will also need to cut costs''' through restructuring labor and making investments into automation, navigating headwinds from labor unions.

Economic consequences of each scenario
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-07 122059.png|center|thumb|758x758px|https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/european-auto-industry-is-under-pressure]]

==== How to Achieve Securing the Lead ====
'''For the European auto industry, staying on its current path is likely to lead to secular decline. Even taking limited steps to improve is expected to result in stagnation or only slight gains.''' But achieving real leadership and a positive future is not out of reach.

These actions primarily involve:

* OEMs becoming more nimble and less staid, developing and adopting new technologies, and speeding up the transition towards EVs—and all of these in actuality as well as in public perception.
* Suppliers playing a big role by working with European automakers to customize parts innovation for specific and crucial global markets as well as making supply chains less prone to disruption.
* Crucially, political leaders and regulators designing clear industrial policies intended to mitigate risks to global trade and safeguard continued access to foreign markets for European OEMs.

[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-07 122358.png|center|thumb|755x755px|https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/european-auto-industry-is-under-pressure]]

=== <big>Allianz May 2023</big> ===
2022 was a record-breaking year for '''alternative energy vehicles in Europe, with sales soaring to 4.4mn units (+11% vs 2021) despite an overall -5% decline in new vehicle registrations.''' '''Between 2019 and 2022, the market share of alternative energy vehicles climbed from 11% to 47%.''' Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) led the way, with sales booming by +28%, representing 12% of all new vehicle registrations.<ref>https://www.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/azcom/Allianz_com/economic-research/publications/specials/en/2023/may/2023-05-09-Automobile.pdf</ref>
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-08 111850.png|center|thumb|777x777px|<ref>https://www.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/azcom/Allianz_com/economic-research/publications/specials/en/2023/may/2023-05-09-Automobile.pdf</ref>]]Despite its rapid growth, Europe’s adoption of alternative energy vehicles comes only second in the world – and a distant second at that. '''In 2022, more than 5.4mn battery electric vehicles – two-thirds of the world total – were registered in China, +83% from 2021. Alternative energy vehicles account for 20% of total registrations'''
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-08 112257.png|center|thumb|513x513px|<ref>https://www.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/azcom/Allianz_com/economic-research/publications/specials/en/2023/may/2023-05-09-Automobile.pdf</ref>]]
In a historic first, '''Chinese automakers reached parity with foreign brands in 2022 and surpassed them in Q4, capturing 51% of the market share (Figure 3). Their share in electric vehicles alone stood at 80%''' and showed no sign of abatement in Q1 2023.Due to:

* A '''strong cost advantage for BEV manufacturing''' based on the bigger volumes of the Chinese car market and a competitive supplier base
* A '''wider range of available BEVs''' (city and compact cars in particular) compared with international competitors, which have so far mostly focused on large and expensive sedans and sport utility vehicles
* '''Positive product reviews and customer reception for China-branded EVs''' resulting in good brand recognition
European Imported volumes have been declining in recent years, dipping below 500,000 in 2022. '''Over the past decade, the market share of European imports has dropped from an estimated 2.9% to 1.8% of total registrations.'''

Accounting for 85% of European automakers‘ sales volumes in the Chinese market, local subsidiaries have generally lagged in adopting electric vehicle technology compared to their pure-play counterparts: '''Of the 20 most popular electric vehicles sold in China in 2022, only one is manufactured by a Sino-European joint venture. In the face of flat, then declining market shares'''
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-08 113205.png|center|thumb|504x504px|<ref>https://www.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/azcom/Allianz_com/economic-research/publications/specials/en/2023/may/2023-05-09-Automobile.pdf</ref>]]
'''Chinese car imports fell from 1.2mn units in 2017 to 0.9mn units in 2022 – a -30% drop in a market down by only -6%. Even more striking, the trade balance in value terms went from a USD37bn trade deficit to USD7bn trade surplus over the same period''', showing that rising Chinese competitiveness is not only allowing the country to become more self-reliant, but also to expand in international markets

'''it is European markets that contributed the most to booming exports, jumping from an estimated 8% share of exports in 2017 to a 28% share in 2022.''' For the first time ever, Europe’s vehicle trade balance moving into negative territory in December 2022.
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-08 115747.png|center|thumb|549x549px|<ref>https://www.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/azcom/Allianz_com/economic-research/publications/specials/en/2023/may/2023-05-09-Automobile.pdf</ref>]]

==== Scenario: China gaining Market share ====
''Chinese brands capture 75% of their domestic market and China-made cars 10% of the European market by 2030''

Assumptions:

* '''A compound annual growth rate of +2.5% for the Chinese passenger car market by 2030,''' bringing annual registrations to 28.6mn units, and a linear progression of the market shares of Chinese carmakers to 75% of total passenger car registrations.
* '''A compound annual growth rate of +6.3% for the European passenger car market by 2030''', bringing annual registrations to 15.1mn units. Higher growth for the European market does not reflect greater potential, but the historical low in registrations reached in 2022 and a progressive return to the peak registration levels of the 2010s. '''BEV penetration would stand at 80%''', which is close to the weighted average of the pledges made by leading carmakers present in Europe for 2030 (81%), meanwhile, imports from '''China climb to 10%''' of all car sales in Europe as the continent goes electric
* '''Value added per vehicle of EUR14,200'''. Value added data were retrieved using Eurostat’s national accounts aggregates by industry database, using value added for 2019 rather than 2020 or 2021, which are often incomplete and reflecting the highly unusual pandemic year

Consequences:

* '''Total sales in China from European carmakers would fall by -39%''', with local production falling from an estimated 4.4mn units in 2022 units to 2.7mn units in 2030, and exports from 480,000 to 290,000 units
* Their combined Chinese sales amounted to about 22% of their global deliveries. Assuming their operations in China are as profitable as those in other markets, 22% of their combined EUR67bn in net profit for 2022 brings the net profit at risk to EUR14.7bn. Because 50-50 joint ventures still account for the bulk of their local sales, '''at least EUR7.3bn of that EUR14.7bn can be attributed to European carmakers, that would be loss.'''
* '''Chinese exports would reach 1.5mn vehicles in 2030, equivalent to 13.5% of the EU’s 2022 production''' or the combined output of the region’s three largest automotive assembly factories. Rising Chinese imports would take a bigger toll on local production compared with competing but modest imports from Japan and South Korea. Greater reliance on imports would lower the capacity utilization rates of European factories, weigh on their profitability and encourage further capacity eliminations.
* '''The value added impact on the European economy would stand at EUR24.2bn in 2030''' for the automotive sector, the equivalent of '''0.15% of the region’s 2022 GDP.'''
* '''Eliminating the same 14% of lost automotive production on the value added generated by the automotive industry in other sectors would amount to an extra EUR21bn in lost value added''' for the European economy. Note, however, that this is an upper bound estimate, given that some services such as retail are provided irrespective of the actual place of car assembly.

Solutions:

* '''Seeking reciprocity in trade terms''', not just with China but also the US, should be a priority to have a more level playing field for the European industry.
* '''Well-performing charging infrastructure would lower the price tag''' for the average BEV and convince users in less urbanized areas to make the switch. In our previous report, we estimated '''the necessary investment in charging infrastructure at EUR13.4bn per year to meet Europe’s Fit For 55 target'''
* '''If Europe struggles to compete with China the short run, it could seek to join it'''. All else unchanged, it would be far more beneficial for Europe to have Chinabranded vehicles on its roads if they were assembled locally rather than imported.
* '''Europe should also consider prioritizing the development of mining and refining capacities when possible, and establishing trade deals with partner countries when not''', to secure its economic and strategic interests. In this respect, the European Critical Raw Material Act (CRMCA) is a step in the right direction whose specifics will need to be communicated and enforced as soon as possible.
* Late in current battery technology manufacturing, '''Europe should also prepare for what lies ahead as both China and the US are heavily investing in next generation battery technologies'''. The reliance on constrained metals such as cobalt necessitates the exploration of alternative battery technologies to mitigate supply risks and develop different types of batteries for different needs.

''' '''
== Future Macro Outlook ==

=== <big>Moody's August 2023</big> ===

* Energy and resources: Wholesale electricity costs in Europe have surged to twice the costs in the United States and triple costs in China.1 This creates challenges for the auto industry, in which a significant portion of production costs come from energy requirements.

* Geopolitical tensions: The European auto industry generates a significant—and higher compared with other regions—share of its revenues through exports,2 which means current geopolitical pressures have an outsize impact on European automakers.

* Supply chain challenges: Compared with other industries, the auto industry relies more heavily on timely deliveries of parts and components from international markets. The European auto industry is therefore at considerable risk when finely tuned international supply chains are disrupted.

* Inflation: Inflation has hit Europe much more severely than the United States or China, with labor costs for European automakers disproportionately affected compared with other industries.

* Productivity crisis: Europe’s productivity and economic growth lag behind those of its peers, particularly in areas such as software engineering in which the auto industry needs significant additional capacity.<ref name=":0" />

=== <big>KPMG 2023</big> ===
<ref>https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/02/the-european-automotive-industry.pdf</ref>

'''''Focused mostly on ICE Market impact'''''
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-14 113517.png|center|thumb|596x596px|https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/02/the-european-automotive-industry.pdf]]

"Recessions come and go, yet the automotive original equipment manufacturer (OEM) sector has continued to grow. And that has placed the focus on building up capacity and harnessing process efficiency. Now, growth no longer looks so certain. In fact, we believe that the automotive OEM sector has entered a period of decline and disruption. Emerging out of the pandemic is a perfect storm that threatens to change the fortunes of the automotive industry."
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-14 122234.png|center|thumb|757x757px|https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/02/the-european-automotive-industry.pdf]]

Five key factors are driving this decline:

'''Demand could fail to materialize'''

Macroeconomic trends, rising inflation and economic uncertainty — coupled with global geopolitical disruption — suggest the anticipated rebound in demand may not materialize.
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-14 114122.png|center|thumb|612x612px|https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/02/the-european-automotive-industry.pdf]]
'''Socio-demographic trends foreshadow a shift in demand'''

* Germany, the majority of new cars have traditionally been purchased by customers 45–64 years old. In fact, over the next decade, this key demographic will drop by approximately 2.5 million people, or 10 percent of the current market size.
* The same trend, albeit to a lesser extent, can be seen on a European level (EU27) — even in the most optimistic simulation, the 45-64 age cohort is projected to shrink by at least 2 percent
* Ten years ago, the average car in Germany was around 8.5 years old. Today, the fleet is closer to 10 years old — an increase of 20 percent (Figure 3). The average age of a car in the broader EU is even higher.
* There are growing signs that purchasing power may well decrease further as a larger proportion of real disposable income is allocated to necessities and wages fail to keep up with inflation.

'''The shift to EVs will likelyshrink the traditional supplier market'''

* EVs are generally less part-intensive than ICE cars. Total value of the OEM supplier market is likely to fall as the market shifts to EVs.
* Decline of battery prices could give EVs the cost edge
* OEMs should start prioritizing EV-component suppliers, particularly as more traditional suppliers struggle to innovate and remain relevant.
* It’s anticipated that the relative proportions of labor and material will reverse dramatically (Figure 8), forcing OEMs to start moving away from decades of focus on efficiency gains. Instead, the leaders should be focusing on restructuring their existing capabilities and reorganizing their supply networks to remain competitive in the long-run.
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-14 115642.png|center|thumb|472x472px|https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/02/the-european-automotive-industry.pdf]]
'''The financial health of suppliers is deteriorating rapidly'''
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-14 121330.png|left|thumb|https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/02/the-european-automotive-industry.pdf]]
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-14 121353.png|thumb|https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/02/the-european-automotive-industry.pdf]]
Lower production volumes coupled with a forced shift into a lower-value market can put significant pressure on suppliers as they struggle with an uphill battle against revenue decline

* Research suggests the resulting negative free cash flows will lead to a spike in indebtedness.Since 2017, the proportion of suppliers in a ‘bad’ liquidity position rose by 9 percent
* The most recent data shows that about a third of suppliers are in the ‘distress zone’, with a further 34 percent in the ‘grey zone’ of improvement potential.
* The average automotive supplier debt portfolio includes around 49 percent short-term debt (with less than 2 years maturity), 31 percent medium-term debt (maturing in 2–5 years), and around 20 percent long-term debt
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-14 121211.png|center|thumb|746x746px|https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/02/the-european-automotive-industry.pdf]]'''Falling battery prices and scale efficiencies can allow EVs to offset inflation'''

The average price of an ICE passenger car is expected to keep growing through the next decade, mainly driven by price inflation. Yet EVs still have room to maneuver

* The cost of batteries is expected to continue to fall — notwithstanding further supply chain and resource constraints — as a result of not only new technological improvements (such as solid-state batteries), but also from economies of scale.
* The ramp up of EV production should lead to an increase in capacity and new production efficiencies which should further drive down costs
* The introduction of additional entry-segment EV models could further drive down average prices.
* Even taking into account recent geopolitical developments, our conservative estimate suggests EV and ICE vehicles will reach price parity by 2035
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-14 122109.png|center|thumb|524x524px|https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/02/the-european-automotive-industry.pdf]]

== References ==

File:Imagea.png

2025-01-21T19:25:59Z

MagaNH6:

File:Image dc.png

2025-01-16T16:34:59Z

MagaNH6:

cdc

Consumer Price Index

2025-01-14T22:27:22Z

MagaNH6:

''Return to: [[Macroeconomics]]''

Forum Discussion: [https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/consumer-price-index-cpi/39 https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/consumer-price-index-cpi]

== Upcoming CPI expectations ==
Expectations for December 2024 can be found [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 December|here]]

==Historical CPI Releases==

''Main article: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases]]''

===Recent Inflation History ===
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Month (Release Date)'''
|'''Headline <ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733</ref> '''
|'''M/M'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Surprise'''
|'''Core <ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-cpi-736 </ref> '''
|'''M/M'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Surprise'''
|'''SuperCore M/M'''<ref>https://sites.google.com/view/pskrzypczynski/home/cpi-core-services-less-shelter-inflation-in-the-u-s</ref>
|'''Market Reaction'''
|'''Full Release'''
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 December|December 2024]]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November|November 2024]]
|2.7%
|0.3%
|2.7%
|0.0%
|3.3%
|0.3%
|3.3%
|0.0%
|0.34%
|
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12112024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 October|October 2024]]
|2.6%
|0.2%
|2.6%
|0.0%
|3.3%
|0.3%
|3.3%
|0.0%
|0.3%
|
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_11132024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 September|September 2024]]
|2.4%
|0.2%
|2.3%
|0.1%
|3.3%
|0.3%
|3.2%
|0.1%
|0.404%
| -0.4%
|
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 August|August 2024]]
|2.5%
|0.2%
|2.6%
| -0.1%
|3.2%
|0.3%
|3.2%
|0.0%
|0.327%
| -0.4%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 July|July 2024]]
|2.9%
|0.2%
|2.9%
|0.0%
|3.2%
|0.2%
|3.2%
|0.0%
|0.2%
|0.38%
|
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 June|June 2024]]
|3.0%
| -0.1%
|3.1%
|0.1%
|3.3%
|0.1%
|3.4%
|0.1%
|<nowiki>-0.05%</nowiki>
|1%
|
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 May|May 2024]]
|3.3%
|0.0%
|3.4%
| -0.1%
|3.4%
|0.2%
|3.5%
| -0.1%
| -0.045%
|1%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_06122024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 April|April 2024]]
|3.4%
|0.3%
|3.4%
|0.0%
|3.6%
|0.3%
|3.6%
|0.0%
|0.42%
|1.17%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_05152024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 March|March 2024]]
|3.5%
|0.4%
|3.4%
|0.1%
|3.8%
|0.4%
|3.7%
|0.1%
|0.65%
| -0.93%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 February|February 2024]]
|3.2%
|0.4%
|3.1%
|0.1%
|3.8%
|0.4%
|3.7%
|0.1%
|0.47%
|1.13%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_03122024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 January|January 2024]]
|3.1%
|0.3%
|2.9%
|0.2%
|3.9%
|0.3%
|3.7%
|0.2%
|0.85%
|<nowiki>-2%</nowiki>
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_02132024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 December|December 2023]]
|3.4%
|0.3%
|3.2%
|0.2%
|3.9%
|0.3%
|3.8%
|0.1%
|0.4%
|
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01112024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 November|November 2023]]
|3.1%
|0.1%
|3.1%
|0.0%
|4.0%
|0.3%
|4.0%
|0.0%
|0.44%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12122023.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 October|October 2023]]
|3.2%
|0.0%
|3.3%
| -0.1%
|4.0%
|0.2%
|4.1%
| -0.1%
|0.21%
| +2%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_11142023.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 September|September 2023]]
|3.7%
|0.4%
|3.6%
|0.1%
|4.1%
|0.3%
|4.1%
|0.0%
|0.6%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10122023.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 August|August 2023]]
|3.7%
|0.6%
|3.6%
|0.1%
|4.3%
|0.3%
|4.3%
|0.0%
|0.4%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09132023.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 July|July 2023]]
|3.2%
|0.2%
|3.3%
| -0.1%
|4.7%
|0.2%
|4.7%
|0.0%
|0.2%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 June|June 2023 (July 12)]]
|3.00%
|0.2%
|3.1%
| -0.1%
|4.8%
|0.2%
|5.00%
| -0.2%
|0.00%
|0.74%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 May|May 2023 (June 13)]]
|4.00%
|0.10%
|4.10%
|<nowiki>-0.1%</nowiki>
|5.3%
|0.4%
|5.3%
|0.0%
|0.2%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 April|April 2023]]
|4.9%
|0.4%
|5%
|<nowiki>-0.1%</nowiki>
|5.5%
|0.4%
|5.5%
|0.0%
|0.1%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 March|March 2023 (Apr 12)]]
|5.0%
|0.1%
|5.2%
| -0.2%
|5.6%
|0.4%
|5.6%
|0.00%
|0.3%
|1.00%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 February|February 2023 (Mar 14)]]
|6.0%
|0.40%
|6.0%
|0.00%
|5.5%
|0.50%
|5.5%
|0.0%
|0.4%
|1.69%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 January|January 2023 (Feb 14)]]
|6.4%
|0.50%
|6.2%
|0.20%
|5.6%
|0.40%
|5.5%
|0.10%
|0.3%
|0.14%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2022 December|December 2022 (Jan 12)]]
|6.50%
| -0.10%
|6.50%
|0.00%
|5.7%
|0.30%
|5.70%
|0.00%
|0.4%
|0.34%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2022 November|November 2022 (Dec 13]])
|7.10%
|0.10%
|7.30%
| -0.20%
|6.00%
|0.20%
|6.10%
| -0.10%
|0.3%
|0.7%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12132022.pdf Link]
|-
|October 2022 (Nov 10)
|7.70%
|0.40%
|8.00%
| -0.30%
|6.30%
|0.30%
|6.50%
| -0.20%
|0.2%
|5.5%
|Link
|-
|September 2022 (Oct 13)
|8.20%
|0.40%
|8.10%
|0.10%
|6.60%
|0.60%
|6.50%
|0.10%
|0.8%
|2.6%
|Link
|-
|August 2022 (Sep 13)
|8.30%
|0.10%
|8.10%
|0.20%
|6.30%
|0.60%
|6.10%
|0.20%
|0.5%
|<nowiki>-4.3%</nowiki>
|Link
|-
|July 2022 (Aug 10)
|8.50%
|0.00%
|8.70%
| -0.20%
|5.90%
|0.30%
|6.10%
| -0.20%
|0.1%
|2.1%
|Link
|-
|June 2022 (Jul 13)
|9.10%
|1.30%
|8.80%
|0.30%
|5.90%
|0.70%
|5.70%
|0.20%
|0.7%
| -0.5%
|Link
|-
|May 2022 (Jun 10)
|8.60%
|1.00%
|8.30%
|0.30%
|6.00%
|0.60%
|5.90%
|0.10%
|0.7%
| -2.9%
|Link
|-
|April 2022 (May 11)
|8.30%
|0.30%
|8.10%
|0.20%
|6.20%
|0.60%
|6.00%
|0.20%
|0.8%
| -1.7%
|Link
|-
|March 2022 (Apr 12)
|8.50%
|1.20%
|8.40%
|0.10%
|6.50%
|0.30%
|6.60%
| -0.10%
|0.7%
| -0.3%
|Link
|-
|February 2022 (Mar 10)
|7.90%
|0.80%
|7.90%
|0.00%
|6.40%
|0.50%
|5.90%
|0.50%
|0.5%
| -0.4%
|Link
|-
|January 2022 (Feb 10)
|7.50%
|0.60%
|7.30%
|0.20%
|6.00%
|0.60%
|5.90%
|0.10%
|0.5%
| -1.8%
|Link
|-
|December 2021 (Jan 12)
|7.00%
|0.50%
|7.00%
|0.00%
|5.50%
|0.60%
|5.40%
|0.10%
|0.4%
|0.3%
|Link
|}

== Definitions ==
Headline:

Core:

==== Supercore: ====
In a speech on November 30,2022 Fed Chair Powell referred to services less shelter as a major category of focus due to the close relationship with wages.

''"Finally, we come to core services other than housing. This spending category covers a wide range of services from health care and education to haircuts and hospitality. This is the largest of our three categories, constituting more than half of the core PCE index. Thus, this may be the most important category for understanding the future evolution of core inflation. Because wages make up the largest cost in delivering these services, the labor market holds the key to understanding inflation in this category."'' <ref>https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20221130a.htm</ref>

==Weighing of CPI components==
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Item'''
|'''2023 Weights'''
|-
|'''Food'''
|'''13.531'''
|-
|'''Energy'''
|'''6.921'''
|-
|'''Commodities less food and energy'''
|'''21.361'''
|-
| - Home Furnishing and Supplies
|3.397
|-
| - Apparel
|2.479
|-
| - New Vehicles
|4.313
|-
| - Used Cars
|2.668
|-
| - Medical Care Commodities
|1.455
|-
| - Alcoholic Beverages
|0.845
|-
| - Tobacco
|0.494
|-
| - Recreation Commodities
|2.291
|-
| - Other Goods
|3.419
|-
|'''Services less energy services'''
|'''58.187'''
|-
| - Shelter
|34.413
|-
| - Water and Trash Collection
|1.056
|-
| - Medical care Services
|6.653
|-
| - Transportation Services
|5.75
|-
| - Recreation Services
|3.094
|-
| - Education and Communication Services
|4.913
|-
| - Other services
|2.308
|}

==Near-term inflation drivers ==
===1. Wages===
Past Developments: [[Wages]]
{| class="wikitable"
!Release Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003</ref>
!Level
!M/M
!Y/Y
!M/M Forecast
!Y/Y Forecast
|-
|2024-11-01
|35.61
|0.37
|4.03
|0.3%
|3.9%
|-
|2024-10-01
|35.48
|0.42
|4.05
|0.3%
|4%
|-
|2024-09-01
|35.33
|0.31
|3.88
|0.3%
|3.8%
|-
|2024-08-01
|35.22
|0.43
|3.86
|0.3%
|3.8%
|-
|2024-07-01
|35.07
|0.23
|3.63
|0.3%
|3.7%
|-
|2024-06-01
|34.99
|0.32
|3.83
|0.3%
|3.9%
|}
===2. Supply Chains===
Past developments: [[Supply Chains|Supply Chain Developments]]
{| class="wikitable"
!Month<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>
!Index
|-
|30-Nov-2024
| -0.32
|-
|31-Oct-2024
| -0.33
|-
|30-Sep-2024
|0.11
|-
|31-Aug-2024
|0.22
|-
|31-Jul-2024
| -0.05
|-
|30-Jun-2024
| -0.34
|}
===3. PPI===
Past Developments: [[Producer Price Index]]
{| class="wikitable"
!'''Producer Price Index'''
!'''Actual'''<ref name=":0">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-734</ref>
!'''Forecast(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":0" />
!'''Revised Previous(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":0" />
!'''M/M'''<ref name=":1">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-238</ref>
! '''Forecast(M/M)'''<ref name=":1" />
!'''Revised Previous(M/M)<ref name=":1" />'''
|-
|2024 October
|2.40%
|2.30%
|1.90%
|0.20%
|0.20%
|0.10%
|-
|2024 September
|1.80%
|1.60%
|1.90%
|0.00%
|0.10%
|0.20%
|-
|2024 August
|1.70%
|1.80%
|2.10%
|0.20%
|0.1%
|0.0%
|-
|2024 July
|2.20%
|2.30%
|2.70%
|0.10%
|0.2%
|0.2%
|-
|2024 June
|2.60%
|2.30%
|2.40%
|0.20%
|0.1%
|0.0%
|}
===4. Housing Market===
Past Developments: [[Housing Market: US#Price Developments|Housing Market: US]]

Important to consider that shelter CPI has a big lag (6-12 months) between current market prices and the correspondent reflection in CPI.

==== Housing ====
{| class="wikitable"
!
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA</ref>
|-
!Date
!Index
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-09-01
|324.80
| -0.10
|3.89
|-
|2024-08-01
|325.13
| -0.13
|4.28
|-
|2024-07-01
|325.54
|0.03
|4.87
|-
|2024-06-01
|325.43
|0.48
|5.49
|}
==== Rents ====
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date<ref name=":03">https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data?utm_source=twitter.com</ref>
! colspan="3" |Overall
! colspan="3" |1 Bedroom
! colspan="3" |2 Bedroom
|-
!Rents
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Rents
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Rents
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|11/1/2024
|1382
| -0.86
| -0.65
|1214
| -0.82
| -0.65
|1368
| -0.80
| -0.58
|-
|10/1/2024
|1394
| -0.71
| -0.71
|1224
| -0.81
| -0.73
|1379
| -0.79
| -0.79
|-
|9/1/2024
|1404
| -0.50
| -0.78
|1234
| -0.48
| -0.72
|1390
| -0.50
| -0.71
|-
|8/1/2024
|1411
| -0.14
| -0.84
|1240
| -0.16
| -0.80
|1397
| -0.14
| -0.78
|-
|7/1/2024
|1413
|0.21
| -0.84
|1242
|0.24
| -0.80
|1399
|0.21
| -0.78
|-
|6/1/2024
|1410
|0.43
| -0.77
|1239
|0.41
| -0.80
|1396
|0.43
| -0.78
|}
=== 5. Food Prices ===
Past Developments: [[Food Market]]

CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis.
{| class="wikitable"
!Date<ref name=":04">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>
! colspan="3" |Food Price Index
!Meat
! Dairy
!Cereals
!Oils
!Sugar
|-
!
!Index
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Index
!Index
!Index
!Index
!Index
|-
|2024-11
|127.50
|0.47
|5.72
|118.1
|139.9
|111.4
|164.1
|126.4
|-
|2024-10
|126.90
|1.85
|5.14
|119.1
|139.0
|114.4
|152.7
|129.6
|-
|2024-09
|124.60
|2.38
|2.38
|119.9
|136.5
|113.6
|142.4
|126.3
|-
|2024-08
|121.70
|0.66
| -0.08
|122.0
|131.3
|110.2
|136.1
|113.9
|-
|2024-07
|120.90
| -0.08
| -2.81
|120.0
|127.9
|110.7
|135.0
|119.5
|-
|2024-06
|121.00
|0.41
| -1.63
|118.1
| 127.9
|115.2
|131.8
|119.4
|}
===6. Energy===
Past Developments: [https://www.investmentwiki.org/wiki/Energy_Industry#Price_Developments Energy Industry]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
Average Prices
! colspan="3" |WTI<ref name=":5">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
! colspan="3" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":6">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
|-
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Dollars per Gallon NSA
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-11-01
|69.95
| -2.83
| -9.96
|3.05
| -2.68
| -7.99
|-
|2024-10-01
|71.99
|2.49
| -15.94
|3.14
| -2.40
| -13.17
|-
|2024-09-01
|70.24
| -8.40
| -21.46
|3.21
| -5.16
| -16.21
|-
|2024-08-01
|76.68
| -6.26
| -5.79
|3.39
| -2.73
| -11.74
|-
|2024-07-01
|81.80
|2.54
|7.53
|3.48
|0.84
| -3.14
|-
|2024-06-01
|79.77
| -0.31
|13.55
|3.46
| -4.11
| -3.25
|}
===7. Car Prices===
Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
! colspan="4" |Used Car Index
! colspan="3" |New Car Average Transaction Prices
|-
!Index (1/97 = 100)
!Manheim Index $ amount SA
!Index % MoM
!Index % YoY
!ATP
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|Nov-24
|205.4
|18,787
|1.28
|0.20
|48,724
|1.5%
|
|-
|Oct-24
|202.8
|18,552
| -0.10
| -3.15
| 48,398
|0.2%
| 0.4%
|-
|Sep-24
|203.0
|18,565
| -0.44
| -5.27
|48,397
|0.8%
| -0.4%
|-
|Aug-24
|203.9
|18,654
|1.14
| -3.91
|47,997
| -0.35%
| -1.17%
|-
|July-24
|201.6
|18,441
|2.80
| -4.77
|48,166
| -0.5%
| -0.26%
|-
|Jun-24
|196.1
| 17,934
| -0.61
| -8.83
|48,424<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/june-2024-atp-report/</ref>
|0.1%
| -1.08%
|}
=== 8. Import Prices ===
Past Developments: [[Import Prices]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
!Import Prices
!Import Prices M/M
!Import Prices Y/Y
|-
!Default Units Index 2000=100 NSA<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IR</ref>
!
!
|-
|2024-10-01
|141.20
|0.28
|0.79
|-
|2024-09-01
|140.80
| -0.42
| -0.14
|-
| 2024-08-01
|141.40
| -0.28
|0.78
|-
|2024-07-01
|141.80
|0.14
|1.72
|-
|2024-06-01
|141.60
|0.07
|1.58
|}
=== 9. PMIs Price Index ===
Past developments: [[Purchasing Managers Index#Developments|ISM Prices Paid]]
{| class="wikitable"
!
! colspan="2" |Prices Paid
|-
!Month
! PMI Manufacturing<ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-manufacturing-prices-174</ref><ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-prices</ref>
!PMI Services<ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-non-manufacturing-prices-1049</ref><ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-non-manufacturing-prices</ref>
|-
|Nov-24
|50.3
|58.2
|-
|Oct-24
|54.8
|58.1
|-
|Sep-24
|48.3
|59.4
|-
|Aug-24
|54
|57.3
|-
|July-24
|52.9
|57
|-
|Jun-24
|52.1
|56.3
|-
|May-24
|57
|58.1
|-
|Apr-24
|60.9
|59.2
|-
|Mar-24
|55.8
|53.4
|-
|Feb-24
|52.5
|58.6
|-
|Jan-24
|52.9
|64
|-
|Dec-23
|45.2
|57.4
|}
== CPI During Recession ==
[[File:FjjZBKRWIAITa5Y.png|thumb|https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1601366332527693824/photo/1|alt=|center|552x552px]]

===Lower demand===
The slowing in demand the economy has started to experience will help put downside pressure on prices. The pricing power companies experienced during 2022 will diminish as demand declines, especially on discretionary items.

*Spending is expected to continue slowing as excess savings decline, debt cost increases (more income will go towards debt service), and banks start to tighten lending conditions<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRTSCLCC</ref>.
*In terms of the possibility of a recession, historically, inflation has come down on average 6.8% in a recession since 1923.

==Long term inflation drivers==

==References:==

Consumer Price Index

2025-01-14T22:24:29Z

MagaNH6: /* Near-term inflation drivers */

''Return to: [[Macroeconomics]]''

Forum Discussion: [https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/consumer-price-index-cpi/39 https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/consumer-price-index-cpi]

== Upcoming CPI expectations ==
Expectations for November 2024 can be found [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November|here]]

==Historical CPI Releases==

''Main article: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases]]''

===Recent Inflation History ===
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Month (Release Date)'''
|'''Headline <ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733</ref> '''
|'''M/M'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Surprise'''
|'''Core <ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-cpi-736 </ref> '''
|'''M/M'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Surprise'''
|'''SuperCore M/M'''<ref>https://sites.google.com/view/pskrzypczynski/home/cpi-core-services-less-shelter-inflation-in-the-u-s</ref>
|'''Market Reaction'''
|'''Full Release'''
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November|November 2024]]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|Link
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 October|October 2024]]
|2.6%
|0.2%
|2.6%
|0.0%
|3.3%
|0.3%
|3.3%
|0.0%
|0.3%
|
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_11132024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 September|September 2024]]
|2.4%
|0.2%
|2.3%
|0.1%
|3.3%
|0.3%
|3.2%
|0.1%
|0.404%
| -0.4%
|
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 August|August 2024]]
|2.5%
|0.2%
|2.6%
| -0.1%
|3.2%
|0.3%
|3.2%
|0.0%
|0.327%
| -0.4%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 July|July 2024]]
|2.9%
|0.2%
|2.9%
|0.0%
|3.2%
|0.2%
|3.2%
|0.0%
|0.2%
|0.38%
|
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 June|June 2024]]
|3.0%
| -0.1%
|3.1%
|0.1%
|3.3%
|0.1%
|3.4%
|0.1%
|<nowiki>-0.05%</nowiki>
|1%
|
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 May|May 2024]]
|3.3%
|0.0%
|3.4%
| -0.1%
|3.4%
|0.2%
|3.5%
| -0.1%
| -0.045%
|1%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_06122024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 April|April 2024]]
|3.4%
|0.3%
|3.4%
|0.0%
|3.6%
|0.3%
|3.6%
|0.0%
|0.42%
|1.17%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_05152024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 March|March 2024]]
|3.5%
|0.4%
|3.4%
|0.1%
|3.8%
|0.4%
|3.7%
|0.1%
|0.65%
| -0.93%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 February|February 2024]]
|3.2%
|0.4%
|3.1%
|0.1%
|3.8%
|0.4%
|3.7%
|0.1%
|0.47%
|1.13%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_03122024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 January|January 2024]]
|3.1%
|0.3%
|2.9%
|0.2%
|3.9%
|0.3%
|3.7%
|0.2%
|0.85%
|<nowiki>-2%</nowiki>
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_02132024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 December|December 2023]]
|3.4%
|0.3%
|3.2%
|0.2%
|3.9%
|0.3%
|3.8%
|0.1%
|0.4%
|
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01112024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 November|November 2023]]
|3.1%
|0.1%
|3.1%
|0.0%
|4.0%
|0.3%
|4.0%
|0.0%
|0.44%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12122023.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 October|October 2023]]
|3.2%
|0.0%
|3.3%
| -0.1%
|4.0%
|0.2%
|4.1%
| -0.1%
|0.21%
| +2%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_11142023.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 September|September 2023]]
|3.7%
|0.4%
|3.6%
|0.1%
|4.1%
|0.3%
|4.1%
|0.0%
|0.6%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10122023.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 August|August 2023]]
|3.7%
|0.6%
|3.6%
|0.1%
|4.3%
|0.3%
|4.3%
|0.0%
|0.4%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09132023.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 July|July 2023]]
|3.2%
|0.2%
|3.3%
| -0.1%
|4.7%
|0.2%
|4.7%
|0.0%
|0.2%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 June|June 2023 (July 12)]]
|3.00%
|0.2%
|3.1%
| -0.1%
|4.8%
|0.2%
|5.00%
| -0.2%
|0.00%
|0.74%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 May|May 2023 (June 13)]]
|4.00%
|0.10%
|4.10%
|<nowiki>-0.1%</nowiki>
|5.3%
|0.4%
|5.3%
|0.0%
|0.2%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 April|April 2023]]
|4.9%
|0.4%
|5%
|<nowiki>-0.1%</nowiki>
|5.5%
|0.4%
|5.5%
|0.0%
|0.1%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 March|March 2023 (Apr 12)]]
|5.0%
|0.1%
|5.2%
| -0.2%
|5.6%
|0.4%
|5.6%
|0.00%
|0.3%
|1.00%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 February|February 2023 (Mar 14)]]
|6.0%
|0.40%
|6.0%
|0.00%
|5.5%
|0.50%
|5.5%
|0.0%
|0.4%
|1.69%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 January|January 2023 (Feb 14)]]
|6.4%
|0.50%
|6.2%
|0.20%
|5.6%
|0.40%
|5.5%
|0.10%
|0.3%
|0.14%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2022 December|December 2022 (Jan 12)]]
|6.50%
| -0.10%
|6.50%
|0.00%
|5.7%
|0.30%
|5.70%
|0.00%
|0.4%
|0.34%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2022 November|November 2022 (Dec 13]])
|7.10%
|0.10%
|7.30%
| -0.20%
|6.00%
|0.20%
|6.10%
| -0.10%
|0.3%
|0.7%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12132022.pdf Link]
|-
|October 2022 (Nov 10)
|7.70%
|0.40%
|8.00%
| -0.30%
|6.30%
|0.30%
|6.50%
| -0.20%
|0.2%
|5.5%
|Link
|-
|September 2022 (Oct 13)
|8.20%
|0.40%
|8.10%
|0.10%
|6.60%
|0.60%
|6.50%
|0.10%
|0.8%
|2.6%
|Link
|-
|August 2022 (Sep 13)
|8.30%
|0.10%
|8.10%
|0.20%
|6.30%
|0.60%
|6.10%
|0.20%
|0.5%
|<nowiki>-4.3%</nowiki>
|Link
|-
|July 2022 (Aug 10)
|8.50%
|0.00%
|8.70%
| -0.20%
|5.90%
|0.30%
|6.10%
| -0.20%
|0.1%
|2.1%
|Link
|-
|June 2022 (Jul 13)
|9.10%
|1.30%
|8.80%
|0.30%
|5.90%
|0.70%
|5.70%
|0.20%
|0.7%
| -0.5%
|Link
|-
|May 2022 (Jun 10)
|8.60%
|1.00%
|8.30%
|0.30%
|6.00%
|0.60%
|5.90%
|0.10%
|0.7%
| -2.9%
|Link
|-
|April 2022 (May 11)
|8.30%
|0.30%
|8.10%
|0.20%
|6.20%
|0.60%
|6.00%
|0.20%
|0.8%
| -1.7%
|Link
|-
|March 2022 (Apr 12)
|8.50%
|1.20%
|8.40%
|0.10%
|6.50%
|0.30%
|6.60%
| -0.10%
|0.7%
| -0.3%
|Link
|-
|February 2022 (Mar 10)
|7.90%
|0.80%
|7.90%
|0.00%
|6.40%
|0.50%
|5.90%
|0.50%
|0.5%
| -0.4%
|Link
|-
|January 2022 (Feb 10)
|7.50%
|0.60%
|7.30%
|0.20%
|6.00%
|0.60%
|5.90%
|0.10%
|0.5%
| -1.8%
|Link
|-
|December 2021 (Jan 12)
|7.00%
|0.50%
|7.00%
|0.00%
|5.50%
|0.60%
|5.40%
|0.10%
|0.4%
|0.3%
|Link
|}

== Definitions ==
Headline:

Core:

==== Supercore: ====
In a speech on November 30,2022 Fed Chair Powell referred to services less shelter as a major category of focus due to the close relationship with wages.

''"Finally, we come to core services other than housing. This spending category covers a wide range of services from health care and education to haircuts and hospitality. This is the largest of our three categories, constituting more than half of the core PCE index. Thus, this may be the most important category for understanding the future evolution of core inflation. Because wages make up the largest cost in delivering these services, the labor market holds the key to understanding inflation in this category."'' <ref>https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20221130a.htm</ref>

==Weighing of CPI components==
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Item'''
|'''2023 Weights'''
|-
|'''Food'''
|'''13.531'''
|-
|'''Energy'''
|'''6.921'''
|-
|'''Commodities less food and energy'''
|'''21.361'''
|-
| - Home Furnishing and Supplies
|3.397
|-
| - Apparel
|2.479
|-
| - New Vehicles
|4.313
|-
| - Used Cars
|2.668
|-
| - Medical Care Commodities
|1.455
|-
| - Alcoholic Beverages
|0.845
|-
| - Tobacco
|0.494
|-
| - Recreation Commodities
|2.291
|-
| - Other Goods
|3.419
|-
|'''Services less energy services'''
|'''58.187'''
|-
| - Shelter
|34.413
|-
| - Water and Trash Collection
|1.056
|-
| - Medical care Services
|6.653
|-
| - Transportation Services
|5.75
|-
| - Recreation Services
|3.094
|-
| - Education and Communication Services
|4.913
|-
| - Other services
|2.308
|}

==Near-term inflation drivers ==
===1. Wages===
Past Developments: [[Wages]]
{| class="wikitable"
!Release Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003</ref>
!Level
!M/M
!Y/Y
!M/M Forecast
!Y/Y Forecast
|-
|2024-11-01
|35.61
|0.37
|4.03
|0.3%
|3.9%
|-
|2024-10-01
|35.48
|0.42
|4.05
|0.3%
|4%
|-
|2024-09-01
|35.33
|0.31
|3.88
|0.3%
|3.8%
|-
|2024-08-01
|35.22
|0.43
|3.86
|0.3%
|3.8%
|-
|2024-07-01
|35.07
|0.23
|3.63
|0.3%
|3.7%
|-
|2024-06-01
|34.99
|0.32
|3.83
|0.3%
|3.9%
|}
===2. Supply Chains===
Past developments: [[Supply Chains|Supply Chain Developments]]
{| class="wikitable"
!Month<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>
!Index
|-
|30-Nov-2024
| -0.32
|-
|31-Oct-2024
| -0.33
|-
|30-Sep-2024
|0.11
|-
|31-Aug-2024
|0.22
|-
|31-Jul-2024
| -0.05
|-
|30-Jun-2024
| -0.34
|}
===3. PPI===
Past Developments: [[Producer Price Index]]
{| class="wikitable"
!'''Producer Price Index'''
!'''Actual'''<ref name=":0">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-734</ref>
!'''Forecast(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":0" />
!'''Revised Previous(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":0" />
!'''M/M'''<ref name=":1">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-238</ref>
! '''Forecast(M/M)'''<ref name=":1" />
!'''Revised Previous(M/M)<ref name=":1" />'''
|-
|2024 October
|2.40%
|2.30%
|1.90%
|0.20%
|0.20%
|0.10%
|-
|2024 September
|1.80%
|1.60%
|1.90%
|0.00%
|0.10%
|0.20%
|-
|2024 August
|1.70%
|1.80%
|2.10%
|0.20%
|0.1%
|0.0%
|-
|2024 July
|2.20%
|2.30%
|2.70%
|0.10%
|0.2%
|0.2%
|-
|2024 June
|2.60%
|2.30%
|2.40%
|0.20%
|0.1%
|0.0%
|}
===4. Housing Market===
Past Developments: [[Housing Market: US#Price Developments|Housing Market: US]]

Important to consider that shelter CPI has a big lag (6-12 months) between current market prices and the correspondent reflection in CPI.

==== Housing ====
{| class="wikitable"
!
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA</ref>
|-
!Date
!Index
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-09-01
|324.80
| -0.10
|3.89
|-
|2024-08-01
|325.13
| -0.13
|4.28
|-
|2024-07-01
|325.54
|0.03
|4.87
|-
|2024-06-01
|325.43
|0.48
|5.49
|}
==== Rents ====
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date<ref name=":03">https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data?utm_source=twitter.com</ref>
! colspan="3" |Overall
! colspan="3" |1 Bedroom
! colspan="3" |2 Bedroom
|-
!Rents
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Rents
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Rents
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|11/1/2024
|1382
| -0.86
| -0.65
|1214
| -0.82
| -0.65
|1368
| -0.80
| -0.58
|-
|10/1/2024
|1394
| -0.71
| -0.71
|1224
| -0.81
| -0.73
|1379
| -0.79
| -0.79
|-
|9/1/2024
|1404
| -0.50
| -0.78
|1234
| -0.48
| -0.72
|1390
| -0.50
| -0.71
|-
|8/1/2024
|1411
| -0.14
| -0.84
|1240
| -0.16
| -0.80
|1397
| -0.14
| -0.78
|-
|7/1/2024
|1413
|0.21
| -0.84
|1242
|0.24
| -0.80
|1399
|0.21
| -0.78
|-
|6/1/2024
|1410
|0.43
| -0.77
|1239
|0.41
| -0.80
|1396
|0.43
| -0.78
|}
=== 5. Food Prices ===
Past Developments: [[Food Market]]

CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis.
{| class="wikitable"
!Date<ref name=":04">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>
! colspan="3" |Food Price Index
!Meat
! Dairy
!Cereals
!Oils
!Sugar
|-
!
!Index
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Index
!Index
!Index
!Index
!Index
|-
|2024-11
|127.50
|0.47
|5.72
|118.1
|139.9
|111.4
|164.1
|126.4
|-
|2024-10
|126.90
|1.85
|5.14
|119.1
|139.0
|114.4
|152.7
|129.6
|-
|2024-09
|124.60
|2.38
|2.38
|119.9
|136.5
|113.6
|142.4
|126.3
|-
|2024-08
|121.70
|0.66
| -0.08
|122.0
|131.3
|110.2
|136.1
|113.9
|-
|2024-07
|120.90
| -0.08
| -2.81
|120.0
|127.9
|110.7
|135.0
|119.5
|-
|2024-06
|121.00
|0.41
| -1.63
|118.1
| 127.9
|115.2
|131.8
|119.4
|}
===6. Energy===
Past Developments: [https://www.investmentwiki.org/wiki/Energy_Industry#Price_Developments Energy Industry]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
Average Prices
! colspan="3" |WTI<ref name=":5">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
! colspan="3" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":6">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
|-
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Dollars per Gallon NSA
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-11-01
|69.95
| -2.83
| -9.96
|3.05
| -2.68
| -7.99
|-
|2024-10-01
|71.99
|2.49
| -15.94
|3.14
| -2.40
| -13.17
|-
|2024-09-01
|70.24
| -8.40
| -21.46
|3.21
| -5.16
| -16.21
|-
|2024-08-01
|76.68
| -6.26
| -5.79
|3.39
| -2.73
| -11.74
|-
|2024-07-01
|81.80
|2.54
|7.53
|3.48
|0.84
| -3.14
|-
|2024-06-01
|79.77
| -0.31
|13.55
|3.46
| -4.11
| -3.25
|}
===7. Car Prices===
Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
! colspan="4" |Used Car Index
! colspan="3" |New Car Average Transaction Prices
|-
!Index (1/97 = 100)
!Manheim Index $ amount SA
!Index % MoM
!Index % YoY
!ATP
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|Nov-24
|205.4
|18,787
|1.28
|0.20
|48,724
|1.5%
|
|-
|Oct-24
|202.8
|18,552
| -0.10
| -3.15
| 48,398
|0.2%
| 0.4%
|-
|Sep-24
|203.0
|18,565
| -0.44
| -5.27
|48,397
|0.8%
| -0.4%
|-
|Aug-24
|203.9
|18,654
|1.14
| -3.91
|47,997
| -0.35%
| -1.17%
|-
|July-24
|201.6
|18,441
|2.80
| -4.77
|48,166
| -0.5%
| -0.26%
|-
|Jun-24
|196.1
| 17,934
| -0.61
| -8.83
|48,424<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/june-2024-atp-report/</ref>
|0.1%
| -1.08%
|}
=== 8. Import Prices ===
Past Developments: [[Import Prices]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
!Import Prices
!Import Prices M/M
!Import Prices Y/Y
|-
!Default Units Index 2000=100 NSA<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IR</ref>
!
!
|-
|2024-10-01
|141.20
|0.28
|0.79
|-
|2024-09-01
|140.80
| -0.42
| -0.14
|-
| 2024-08-01
|141.40
| -0.28
|0.78
|-
|2024-07-01
|141.80
|0.14
|1.72
|-
|2024-06-01
|141.60
|0.07
|1.58
|}
=== 9. PMIs Price Index ===
Past developments: [[Purchasing Managers Index#Developments|ISM Prices Paid]]
{| class="wikitable"
!
! colspan="2" |Prices Paid
|-
!Month
! PMI Manufacturing<ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-manufacturing-prices-174</ref><ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-prices</ref>
!PMI Services<ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-non-manufacturing-prices-1049</ref><ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-non-manufacturing-prices</ref>
|-
|Nov-24
|50.3
|58.2
|-
|Oct-24
|54.8
|58.1
|-
|Sep-24
|48.3
|59.4
|-
|Aug-24
|54
|57.3
|-
|July-24
|52.9
|57
|-
|Jun-24
|52.1
|56.3
|-
|May-24
|57
|58.1
|-
|Apr-24
|60.9
|59.2
|-
|Mar-24
|55.8
|53.4
|-
|Feb-24
|52.5
|58.6
|-
|Jan-24
|52.9
|64
|-
|Dec-23
|45.2
|57.4
|}
== CPI During Recession ==
[[File:FjjZBKRWIAITa5Y.png|thumb|https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1601366332527693824/photo/1|alt=|center|552x552px]]

===Lower demand===
The slowing in demand the economy has started to experience will help put downside pressure on prices. The pricing power companies experienced during 2022 will diminish as demand declines, especially on discretionary items.

*Spending is expected to continue slowing as excess savings decline, debt cost increases (more income will go towards debt service), and banks start to tighten lending conditions<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRTSCLCC</ref>.
*In terms of the possibility of a recession, historically, inflation has come down on average 6.8% in a recession since 1923.

==Long term inflation drivers==

==References:==

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 December

2025-01-14T21:45:58Z

MagaNH6:

''Return to: [[Consumer Price Index]] | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases|Historical Releases]]'' | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November]]

Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01152025.htm

Publishing date: January 15, 2025

==CPI expectations==
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]])
[[File:Screenshot 2025-01-14 154032.png|center|thumb|1181x1181px|https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzvIAz6CBS78vH1moNA-foaZA0HWOb-AG1DfvCUJDio/edit?gid=1233713232#gid=1233713232]]
''Range:''
*CPI: 2.7% - 3.0%
*Core CPI: 3.2% - 3.4%
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Escenario'''
|'''Market reaction'''
|'''Probability by Magaly'''
|-
|CPI below 2.8%
|2%+ rally
|5%
|-
|CPI at 2.8%
|1.5% Rally
|15%
|-
|CPI in line with expectations
|Flat
|50%
|-
|CPI at 3.0%
|2% drop
|25%
|-
|CPI above 3.0%
|3% drop
|5%
|}
===Consensus forecast===
{| class="wikitable"
!Variable
!Forecast
!Previous
|-
|Core CPI (MoM)
|0.26%
|0.3%
|-
|Core CPI (YoY)
|3.3%
|3.3%
|-
|CPI (MoM)
|0.38%
|0.3%
|-
|CPI (YoY)
|2.9%
|2.7%
|}
===FED Cleveland Forecast===
{| class="wikitable"
!<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref>
! colspan="2" |YoY Change
! colspan="2" |MoM Change
|-
!Month
!CPI
!Core CPI
!CPI
!Core CPI
|-
|December 2024
|2.86
|3.28
|0.38
|0.27
|-
|January 2025
|2.79
|3.18
|0.21
|0.27
|}
===Institutions Forecasts===
[[File:GhNJ5c5XAAAhR5W.png|center|thumb|634x634px|https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1878926790414279084/photo/1]]

==References==
<references />

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 December

2025-01-14T21:42:29Z

MagaNH6:

''Return to: [[Consumer Price Index]] | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases|Historical Releases]]'' | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November]]

Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01152025.htm

Publishing date: January 15, 2025

==CPI expectations==
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) [[File:Screenshot 2024-12-10 123140.png|center|thumb|1181x1181px|https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzvIAz6CBS78vH1moNA-foaZA0HWOb-AG1DfvCUJDio/edit?gid=1233713232#gid=1233713232]]''Range:''
*CPI: 2.7% - 3.0%
*Core CPI: 3.2% - 3.4%
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Escenario'''
|'''Market reaction'''
|'''Probability by Magaly'''
|-
|CPI below 2.8%
|2%+ rally
|5%
|-
|CPI at 2.8%
|1.5% Rally
|15%
|-
|CPI in line with expectations
|Flat
|50%
|-
|CPI at 3.0%
|2% drop
|25%
|-
|CPI above 3.0%
|3% drop
|5%
|}
===Consensus forecast===
{| class="wikitable"
!Variable
!Forecast
!Previous
|-
|Core CPI (MoM)
|0.26%
|0.3%
|-
|Core CPI (YoY)
|3.3%
|3.3%
|-
|CPI (MoM)
|0.38%
|0.3%
|-
|CPI (YoY)
|2.9%
|2.7%
|}
===FED Cleveland Forecast===
{| class="wikitable"
!<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref>
! colspan="2" |YoY Change
! colspan="2" |MoM Change
|-
!Month
!CPI
!Core CPI
!CPI
!Core CPI
|-
|December 2024
|2.86
|3.28
|0.38
|0.27
|-
|January 2025
|2.79
|3.18
|0.21
|0.27
|}
===Institutions Forecasts===
[[File:GhNJ5c5XAAAhR5W.png|center|thumb|634x634px|https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1878926790414279084/photo/1]]

==References==
<references />

File:Screenshot 2025-01-14 154032.png

2025-01-14T21:40:54Z

MagaNH6:

Automotive Industry:United States

2025-01-14T21:37:24Z

MagaNH6: /* Prices */

''Return to: [[Industries]] | [[Automotive Industry]] | [[Automotive Industry:Questions]]''

Forum: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/automotive-industry-united-states/98/41

Data: [https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/investmentwiki/viz/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/ManheimUsedCarsIndex#3 Tableau] | Google Sheets: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i4ExbgRuG_nwDKnq1gJyTMi21X2sCf7qdA49zbHTDQU/edit?gid=0#gid=0 1] [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i4ExbgRuG_nwDKnq1gJyTMi21X2sCf7qdA49zbHTDQU/edit?gid=1458970427#gid=1458970427 2] 3
== Sales ==
[[File:Screenshot 2024-08-16 102924.png|alt=|center|thumb|1069x1069px|Total Vehicle Sales https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA]]
[[File:Light Vehicle Salesa24.png|center|thumb|1082x1082px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/views/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/LightVehicleSales?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
! colspan="4" |Total Vehicle Sales (M)<ref>https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i4ExbgRuG_nwDKnq1gJyTMi21X2sCf7qdA49zbHTDQU/edit?gid=0#gid=0&range=D1</ref><ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA</ref>
! colspan="4" |Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks (M)<ref>https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i4ExbgRuG_nwDKnq1gJyTMi21X2sCf7qdA49zbHTDQU/edit?gid=0#gid=0&range=L1</ref><ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ALTSALES</ref>
|-
!Millions
!M/M Level Change
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Millions
!M/M Level Change
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-09-01
|16.252
|0.49
|3.09%
|0.36%
|15.775
|0.51
|3.35%
|0.53%
|-
|2024-08-01
|15.765
| -0.61
| -3.74%
| -0.91%
|15.264
| -0.60
| -3.76%
| -0.71%
|-
|2024-07-01
|16.378
|0.91
|5.86%
| 0.47%
|15.861
|0.83
|5.54%
| 0.37%
|-
|2024-06-01
|15.471
| -0.90
| -5.51%
| -5.83%
|15.029
| -0.86
| -5.41%
| -5.41%
|-
|2024-05-01
|16.373
| -0.20
| -1.19%
|2.66%
|15.889
| -0.18
| -1.12%
|3.22%
|-
|2024-04-01
|16.57
|0.38
|2.37%
|0.75%
|16.069
|0.34
|2.18%
|0.91%
|-
|2024-03-01
|16.186
| 0.00
| -0.03%
|3.31%
|15.726
| 0.04
| 0.27%
|3.79%
|-
|2024-02-01
|16.191
|0.68
|4.37%
|4.90%
|15.683
|0.68
|4.54%
|5.11%
|-
|2024-01-01
|15.513
| -0.87
| -5.33%
| -0.97%
|15.002
| -0.92
| -5.76%
| -1.05%
|-
|2023-12-01
|16.386
|0.44
|2.77%
|17.59%
|15.919
|0.46
|2.99%
|18.52%
|-
|2023-11-01
|15.945
|0.15
|0.92%
|8.23%
|15.457
|0.11
|0.74%
|8.78%
|-
|2023-10-01
|15.799
| -0.39
| -2.43%
|4.69%
|15.343
| -0.35
| -2.22%
|5.00%
|-
|2023-09-01
|16.193
|0.28
|1.79%
|14.55%
|15.692
|0.32
|2.08%
|15.00%
|-
|2023-08-01
|15.909
| -0.39
| -2.41%
|13.12%
|15.373
| -0.43
| -2.72%
|13.39%
|-
|2023-07-01
|16.302
| -0.13
| -0.77%
|17.56%
|15.803
| -0.09
| -0.54%
|17.95%
|-
|2023-06-01
|16.428
|0.48
|3.01%
|20.18%
|15.889
|0.49
|3.22%
|20.44%
|-
|2023-05-01
|15.948
| -0.50
| -3.03%
|20.04%
|15.394
| -0.53
| -3.33%
|19.97%
|-
|2023-04-01
|16.446
|0.78
|4.97%
|12.02%
|15.924
|0.77
|5.10%
|11.84%
|-
|2023-03-01
|15.668
|0.23
|1.52%
|9.93%
|15.152
|0.23
|1.55%
|9.98%
|-
|2023-02-01
|15.434
| -0.23
| -1.47%
|8.94%
|14.92
| -0.24
| -1.59%
|8.77%
|-
|2023-01-01
|15.665
|1.73
|12.41%
|5.37%
|15.161
|1.73
|12.88%
|4.99%
|-
|2022-12-01
|13.935
| -0.80
| -5.42%
|5.84%
|13.431
| -0.78
| -5.48%
|5.81%
|-
|2022-11-01
|14.733
| -0.36
| -2.37%
|9.26%
|14.21
| -0.40
| -2.75%
|9.01%
|-
|2022-10-01
|15.091
|0.96
|6.76%
|14.49%
|14.612
|0.97
|7.09%
|14.54%
|-
|2022-09-01
|14.136
|0.07
|0.51%
|11.11%
|13.645
|0.09
|0.64%
|11.03%
|-
|2022-08-01
|14.064
|0.20
|1.42%
|2.17%
|13.558
|0.16
|1.19%
|1.60%
|-
|2022-07-01
|13.867
|0.20
|1.45%
| -8.81%
|13.398
|0.21
|1.55%
| -9.27%
|-
|2022-06-01
|13.669
|0.38
|2.88%
| -14.05%
|13.193
|0.36
|2.81%
| -14.46%
|-
|2022-05-01
|13.286
| -1.40
| -9.50%
| -23.93%
|12.832
| -1.41
| -9.87%
| -24.51%
|-
|2022-04-01
|14.681
|0.43
|3.00%
| -21.48%
|14.238
|0.46
|3.35%
| -21.81%
|-
|2022-03-01
|14.253
| 0.09
| 0.60%
| -22.94%
|13.777
| 0.06
| 0.44%
| -23.34%
|-
|2022-02-01
|14.168
| -0.70
| -4.70%
| -12.13%
|13.717
| -0.72
| -5.01%
| -12.43%
|-
|2022-01-01
|14.866
|1.70
|12.91%
| -10.97%
|14.441
|1.75
|13.77%
| -10.90%
|-
|2021-12-01
|13.166
| -0.32
| -2.36%
| -22.43%
|12.693
| -0.34
| -2.62%
| -23.13%
|-
|2021-11-01
|13.484
|0.30
|2.30%
| -17.54%
|13.035
|0.28
|2.18%
| -17.97%
|-
|2021-10-01
|13.181
|0.46
|3.61%
| -20.66%
|12.757
|0.47
|3.80%
| -21.08%
|-
|2021-09-01
|12.722
| -1.04
| -7.58%
| -24.00%
|12.29
| -1.06
| -7.91%
| -24.56%
|-
|2021-08-01
|13.765
| -1.44
| -9.48%
| -13.60%
|13.345
| -1.42
| -9.63%
| -13.98%
|-
|2021-07-01
|15.207
| -0.70
| -4.38%
| -0.12%
|14.767
| -0.66
| -4.25%
| -0.46%
|-
|2021-06-01
|15.903
| -1.56
| -8.95%
|18.06%
|15.423
| -1.58
| -9.27%
|17.61%
|-
|2021-05-01
|17.466
| -1.23
| -6.58%
|39.64%
|16.999
| -1.21
| -6.65%
|39.11%
|-
|2021-04-01
|18.697
|0.20
|1.09%
|109.05%
|18.21
|0.24
|1.32%
|111.89%
|-
|2021-03-01
|18.496
|2.37
|14.71%
|56.27%
|17.972
|2.31
|14.73%
|56.92%
|-
|2021-02-01
|16.124
| -0.57
| -3.43%
| -5.64%
|15.664
| -0.54
| -3.36%
| -5.79%
|-
|2021-01-01
|16.697
| -0.28
| -1.62%
| -1.16%
|16.208
| -0.30
| -1.84%
| -1.48%
|-
|2020-12-01
|16.972
|0.62
|3.79%
| -2.97%
|16.512
|0.62
|3.91%
| -3.02%
|-
|2020-11-01
|16.352
| -0.26
| -1.57%
| -6.82%
|15.89
| -0.27
| -1.70%
| -7.06%
|-
|2020-10-01
|16.613
| -0.13
| -0.75%
| -2.56%
|16.164
| -0.13
| -0.79%
| -2.21%
|-
|2020-09-01
|16.739
|0.81
|5.07%
| -5.54%
|16.292
|0.78
|5.02%
| -5.06%
|-
|2020-08-01
|15.932
|0.71
|4.64%
| -10.90%
|15.513
|0.68
|4.57%
| -10.57%
|-
|2020-07-01
|15.225
|1.76
|13.03%
| -13.90%
|14.835
|1.72
|13.12%
| -13.24%
|-
|2020-06-01
|13.47
|0.96
|7.69%
| -24.24%
|13.114
|0.89
|7.32%
| -24.01%
|-
|2020-05-01
|12.508
|3.56
|39.85%
| -30.38%
|12.22
|3.63
|42.19%
| -29.76%
|-
|2020-04-01
|8.944
| -2.89
| -24.43%
| -47.29%
|8.594
| -2.86
| -24.96%
| -47.57%
|-
|2020-03-01
|11.836
| -5.25
| -30.74%
| -33.66%
|11.453
| -5.17
| -31.11%
| -33.94%
|-
|2020-02-01
|17.088
|0.20
|1.15%
|0.74%
|16.626
|0.18
|1.06%
|1.06%
|-
|2020-01-01
|16.893
| -0.60
| -3.42%
| -0.45%
|16.451
| -0.58
| -3.38%
|0.09%
|-
|2019-12-01
|17.491
| -0.06
| -0.33%
| -3.24%
|17.027
| -0.07
| -0.41%
| -3.22%
|}
=== COX Sales Data ===
[[US Auto Cox Sales: Historical Releases]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
! colspan="3" |Sales Volume
! colspan="3" |SAAR Volume
|-
!Million
!Q/Q
!Y/Y
!Million
!Q/Q
!Y/Y
|-
|Q3 2024
|3.9
| -4.7%
| -2.1%
|15.6
| -0.3%
| -0.3%
|-
|Q2 2024
|4.1
| 10.5%
| -0.9%
|15.7
|
|
|-
|Q1 2024
|3.7
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Q4 2023
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Q3 2023
|4.0
|
|
|
|
|
|}

==== Q3 2024 ====

===== New =====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-11 150436.png|center|thumb|1078x1078px]]

==== Q2 2024 ====

=====<big>Used</big>=====
{| class="wikitable"
|<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-retail-vehicle-sales-june-2024/</ref>
! colspan="3" |Monthly Used Retail Sales
!
! colspan="3" |Year-Over-Year Change
!
! colspan="3" |Month-Over-Month Change
|-
|
!2022
!2023
!2024
!
!2022
!2023
!2024
!
!2022
!2023
!2024
|-
|Jan
|1,321,830
|1,398,501
|1,308,311
|
|
|5.8%
| -6.4%
|
|
|10.81%
|1.30%
|-
|Feb
|1,356,204
|1,332,128
|1,395,644
|
|
| -1.8%
|4.8%
|
|2.6%
| -4.7%
|6.7%
|-
|Mar
|1,659,013
|1,505,948
|1,556,473
|
|
| -9.2%
|3.4%
|
|22.3%
|13.0%
|11.5%
|-
|Apr
|1,491,848
|1,370,688
|1,395,645
|
|
| -8.1%
|1.8%
|
| -10.1%
| -9.0%
| -10.3%
|-
|May
|1,577,160
|1,383,537
|1,527,760
|
|
| -12.3%
|10.4%
|
|5.7%
|0.9%
|9.5%
|-
|Jun
|1,408,997
|1,356,899
|1,412,348
|
|
| -3.7%
|4.1%
|
| -10.7%
| -1.9%
| -7.6%
|-
|Jul
|1,435,306
|1,408,312
|
|
|
| -1.9%
|
|
|1.9%
|3.8%
|
|-
|Aug
|1,471,864
|1,473,243
|
|
|
|0.1%
|
|
|2.5%
|4.6%
|
|-
|Sep
|1,401,317
|1,335,070
|
|
|
| -4.7%
|
|
| -4.8%
| -9.4%
|
|-
|Oct
|1,407,624
|1,333,904
|
|
|
| -5.2%
|
|
|0.5%
| -0.1%
|
|-
|Nov
|1,280,510
|1,268,868
|
|
|
| -0.9%
|
|
| -9.0%
| -4.9%
|
|-
|Dec
|1,262,072
|1,291,529
|
|
|
|2.3%
|
|
| -1.4%
|1.8%
|
|}

=====<big>New</big>=====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-07-24 101659.png|center|thumb|927x927px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Cox-Automotive-Mid-Year-Review-Presentation.pdf]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-07-24 101711.png|center|thumb|921x921px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Cox-Automotive-Mid-Year-Review-Presentation.pdf]]

==== <big>March 2024</big> ====

=====<big>Used</big>=====
{| class="wikitable"
!<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-retail-vehicle-sales-march-2024/</ref>
! colspan="3" |Monthly Used Retail Sales
!
! colspan="3" |Year-Over-Year Change
!
! colspan="3" |Month-Over-Month Change
|-
!
!2022
!2023
!2024
!
!2022
!2023
!2024
!
!2022
!2023
!2024
|-
|Jan
|1,317,344
|1,397,196
|1,308,311
|
| -25.4%
|6.1%
| -6.4%
|
| -9.9%
|6.3%
|1.3%
|-
|Feb
|1,359,467
|1,349,784
|1,404,837
|
| -11.7%
| -0.7%
|4.1%
|
|3.2%
| -3.4%
|7.4%
|-
|Mar
|1,670,272
|1,501,785
|1,664,964
|
| -24.6%
| -10.1%
|10.9%
|
|22.9%
|11.3%
|18.5%
|-
|Apr
|1,480,027
|1,385,960
|
|
| -27.0%
| -6.4%
|
|
| -11.4%
| -7.7%
|
|-
|May
|1,573,287
|1,396,172
|
|
| -19.4%
| -11.3%
|
|
|6.3%
|0.7%
|
|-
|Jun
|1,449,190
|1,392,630
|
|
| -19.5%
| -3.9%
|
|
| -7.9%
| -0.3%
|
|-
|Jul
|1,466,348
|1,407,870
|
|
| -18.8%
| -4.0%
|
|
|1.2%
|1.1%
|
|-
|Aug
|1,491,004
|1,481,718
|
|
| -19.0%
| -0.6%
|
|
|1.7%
|5.2%
|
|-
|Sep
|1,395,438
|1,330,619
|
|
| -13.7%
| -4.6%
|
|
| -6.4%
| -10.2%
|
|-
|Oct
|1,414,611
|1,320,566
|
|
| -17.1%
| -6.6%
|
|
|1.4%
| -0.8%
|
|-
|Nov
|1,281,130
|1,282,699
|
|
| -15.5%
|0.1%
|
|
| -9.4%
| -2.9%
|
|-
|Dec
|1,314,827
|1,291,529
|
|
| -10.1%
| -1.8%
|
|
|2.6%
|0.7%
|
|}

=====<big>New</big>=====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-18 110126.png|center|thumb|855x855px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Q1-2024-Cox-Automotive-Industry-Insights-and-Forecast-Call-Presentation.pdf]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-18 110214.png|center|thumb|848x848px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Q1-2024-Cox-Automotive-Industry-Insights-and-Forecast-Call-Presentation.pdf]]

====== EV ======
In the first quarter of 2024, Americans bought 268,909 new electric vehicles. EV share of total new-vehicle sales in Q1 was 7.3%, a decrease from Q4 2023.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q1-2024-ev-sales/</ref>

* While annual EV sales continue to grow in the U.S. market, the growth rate has slowed notably. '''Sales in Q1 rose 2.6% year over year, but fell 15.2% compared to Q4 2023.''' The increase last quarter was well below the previous two years.
* One bright spot in Q1: Strong EV sales from luxury makers, suggesting the EV market continues to be luxury-driven. Cadillac achieved a 499.2% year-over-year increase in electric vehicle sales due to robust sales of its Lyriq model. At Mercedes, EV sales were up 66.9%. BMW posted a 62.6% increase in EV sales compared to Q1 2023. At Audi, Q1 EV sales grew 28.8% year over year.

== Prices ==
'''Historical''': [[US Auto Prices: Historical Releases]]

By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold.

Methodology: https://site.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html

'''Used Car Index'''
[[File:Manheim Used Cars Index (1).png|alt=|center|thumb|1097x1097px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/views/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/ManheimUsedCarsIndex?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]'''New Car Avg Prices'''
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-11 152640.png|center|thumb|1096x1096px]]
* ''Prices could have revisions that are not reported by Cox''

{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
! colspan="4" |Used Car Index
! colspan="3" |New Car Average Transaction Prices
!New Car Average Listing Price
!Used Car Average Listing Prices
|-
!Index (1/97 = 100)
!Manheim Index $ amount SA
!Index % MoM
!Index % YoY
!ATP
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Avg Price
!Avg Price
|-
|Dec-24
|
|
|
|
|49,740
|1.5%
|2.27%
|
|
|-
|Nov-24
|205.4
|18,787
|1.28
|0.20
|48,724
|1.5%
|1.5%
|
|
|-
|Oct-24
|202.8
|18,552
| -0.10
| -3.15
|48,004
|0.2%
|0.4%
|
|
|-
|Sep-24
|203.0
|18,565
| -0.44
| -5.27
|48,397
|0.8%
| -0.4%
|47,823<ref name=":7" />
|25,361<ref name=":8" />
|-
|Aug-24
|203.9
|18,654
|1.14
| -3.91
|47,997
| -0.35%
| -1.17%
|46,841<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-august-2024/</ref>
|25,135 <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-august-2024/</ref>
|-
|July-24
|201.6
|18,441
|2.80
| -4.77
|48,166
| -0.5%
| -0.26%
|47,307<ref name=":3">https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-july-2024/</ref>
|25,425<ref name=":2" />
|-
|Jun-24
|196.1
|17,934
| -0.61
| -8.83
|48,424<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/june-2024-atp-report/</ref>
|0.1%
| -1.08%
|
|25,246<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-june-2024/</ref>
|-
|May-24
|197.3
|18,048
| -0.55
| -12.12
|48,378
|
|
|
|25,642
|-
|Apr-24
|198.4
|18,151
| -2.31
| -14.04
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Mar-24
|203.1
|18,573
| -0.34
| -14.70
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Feb-24
|203.8
|18,645
| -0.10
| -13.09
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jan-24
|204.0
|18,664
|0.00
| -9.25
|47,401
| -2.6%
| -3.5%
|
|
|-
|Dec-23
|204.0
|18,657
| -0.49
| -6.98
|48,635
|
|
|48,805<ref name=":5" />
|26,446<ref name=":6" />
|-
|Nov-23
|205.0
|18,752
| -2.10
| -5.79
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Oct-23
|209.4
|19,157
| -2.29
| -4.03
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Sep-23
|214.3
|19,605
|0.99
| -3.94
|48,615
|
|
|
|
|-
|Aug-23
|212.2
|19,412
|0.24
| -7.74
|48,569
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jul-23
|211.7
|19,367
| -1.58
| -11.64
|48,295
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jun-23
|215.1
|19,679
| -4.19
| -10.34
|48,951
|
|
|
|
|-
|May-23
|224.5
|20,535
| -2.73
| -7.61
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Apr-23
|230.8
|21,113
| -3.07
| -4.35
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Mar-23
|238.1
|21,777
|1.54
| -2.38
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Feb-23
|234.5
|21,452
|4.31
| -7.06
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jan-23
|224.8
|20,563
|2.51
| -12.77
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Dec-22
|219.30
|20,060
|0.78
| -14.90
|49,929
|
|
|
|
|-
|Nov-22
|217.60
|19,900
| -0.27
| -14.20
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Oct-22
|218.20
|19,955
| -2.20
| -10.57
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Sep-22
|223.10
|20,410
| -3.00
| -0.13
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Aug-22
|230.00
|21,039
| -4.01
|8.44
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jul-22
|239.60
|21,915
| -0.13
|12.49
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jun-22
|239.90
|21,941
| -1.28
|9.74
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|May-22
|243.00
|22,225
|0.70
|9.71
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Apr-22
|241.30
|22,076
| -1.07
|13.98
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Mar-22
|243.90
|22,305
| -3.33
|24.82
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Feb-22
|252.30
|23,076
| -2.10
|36.67
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jan-22
|257.70
|23,574
|0.00
|44.86
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Dec-21
|257.70
|23,569
|1.62
|46.67
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Nov-21
|253.60
|23,197
|3.93
|43.44
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Oct-21
|244.00
|22,319
|9.22
|38.17
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Sep-21
|223.40
|20,432
|5.33
|27.08
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Aug-21
|212.10
|19,405
| -0.42
|18.76
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jul-21
|213.00
|19,482
| -2.56
|23.55
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jun-21
|218.60
|19,997
| -1.31
|34.28
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|May-21
|221.50
|20,260
|4.63
|48.16
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Apr-21
|211.70
|19,360
|8.34
|54.30
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Mar-21
|195.40
|17,876
|5.85
|26.23
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Feb-21
|184.60
|16,885
|3.77
|17.88
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jan-21
|177.90
|16,269
|1.25
|15.15
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Dec-20
|175.70
|16,072
| -0.62
|14.17
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Nov-20
|176.80
|16,168
|0.11
|16.70
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Oct-20
|176.60
|16,156
|0.46
|15.42
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Sep-20
|175.80
|16,081
| -1.57
|15.20
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Aug-20
|178.60
|16,339
|3.60
|15.82
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jul-20
|172.40
|15,765
|5.90
|12.53
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jun-20
|162.80
|14,895
|8.90
|6.27
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|May-20
|149.50
|13,672
|8.97
| -1.84
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Apr-20
|137.20
|12,548
| -11.37
| -9.14
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Mar-20
|154.80
|14,164
| -1.15
|4.38
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Feb-20
|156.60
|14,322
|1.36
|6.17
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jan-20
|154.50
|14,131
|0.39
|4.60
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Dec-19
|153.90
|14,076
|1.58
|2.53
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Nov-19
|151.50
|13,862
| -0.98
| -0.13
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Oct-19
|153.00
|13,999
|0.26
| -0.46
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Sep-19
|152.60
|13,958
| -1.04
|0.00
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Aug-19
|154.20
|14,104
|0.65
|1.18
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jul-19
|153.20
|14,017
|0.00
|2.54
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jun-19
|153.20
|14,016
|0.59
|4.08
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|May-19
|152.30
|13,931
|0.86
|4.03
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Apr-19
|151.00
|13,814
|1.82
|4.43
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Mar-19
|148.30
|13,569
|0.54
|3.92
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Feb-19
|147.50
|13,491
| -0.14
|3.22
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jan-19
|147.70
|13,506
| -1.60
|3.36
|
|
|
|
|
|}
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-18 110755.png|center|thumb|853x853px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Q1-2024-Cox-Automotive-Industry-Insights-and-Forecast-Call-Presentation.pdf]]

=== June 2024 ===

==== Used ====

* Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down in June compared to May. The seasonal adjustment to the index mitigated the impact on the month, resulting in values that declined 0.6% month over month for the second time in a row. The non-adjusted price in June decreased by 2.2% compared to May, moving the unadjusted average price down 10.0% year over year.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/june-2024-muvvi/</ref>
* Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased an aggregate of 1.5%, including a decline of only 0.2% in the last week of the month. Those same four weeks delivered an average decrease of 0.5% between 2014 and 2019, showing that depreciation trends are currently running higher than long-term averages for the year.
* Over the month of June, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 97.8%, meaning market prices stayed below MMR values again this month. Against May, valuation models in June moved down a point on MMR retention. '
* The average daily sales conversion rate rose to 57.4%, a rise over the previous month and higher than is normally seen at this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 51.4% in June over the past two years.
* The average retail listing price for a used vehicle was down 1% over the last four weeks.

==== New ====

* In June, according to data released today by Kelley Blue Book, the average transaction price (ATP) for a new vehicle in the U.S. was $48,644. The June ATP was higher by $266 (0.6%) from the revised May ATP and lower by $307 (0.6%) compared to June 2023. In June, the new-vehicle ATP was lower year over year for the ninth straight month. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/june-2024-atp-report/</ref>
* Incentives – measured as a percent of ATP – were lower in June than in May. The average new-vehicle incentive package, which includes discounts and rebates, fell to 6.4% of ATP ($3,102) last month, down from 6.7% in May but higher than one year ago when incentives were 4.2% of ATP ($2,036).
* In June, 40% of vehicles transacted for below $40,000, and 26% transacted or between $30-and-$40,000. According to Kelley Blue Book estimates, among the top ten best-selling vehicles in June, half carried ATPs below $40,000 – the Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-V, Toyota Camry, Honda Civic and Chevrolet Trax.
* In June, the average price paid for a new electric vehicle (EV) was $56,371, an increase of 0.9% compared to May. EV prices in June were lower by 2.5% versus June 2023.

== Inventory ==
Historical Releases: [[US Auto Inventory: Historical Releases]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="3" |Date
! colspan="2" |New Vehicles
! colspan="2" |Used Vehicles
|-
!Inventory
!Days Supply
!Inventory
!Days Supply
|-
!Millions
!
!Millions
!
|-
|2024-09-01
|2.76<ref name=":7">https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-september-2024/</ref><ref name=":7" />
|81
|2.15<ref name=":8">https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-september-2024/</ref>
|47
|-
|2024-08-01
|2.84<ref name=":0">https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-august-2024/</ref>
|77
|2.18<ref name=":0" />
|42
|-
|2024-07-01
|2.79<ref name=":3" />
|68
|2.17<ref name=":2">https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-july/</ref>
|41
|-
|2024-06-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-05-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-04-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-03-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-02-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-01-01
|2.61
|
|
|
|-
|2023-12-01
|2.66<ref name=":5">https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-december-2023/</ref>
|70
|2.39<ref name=":6">https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-december-2023/</ref>
|56
|-
|2023-11-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-10-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-09-01
|2.07
|
|
|
|-
|2023-08-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-07-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-06-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-05-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-04-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-03-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-02-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-01-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-12-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-11-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-10-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-09-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-08-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-07-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-06-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-05-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-04-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-03-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-02-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-01-01
|
|
|
|
|}

=== September 2024 ===

==== New ====
A new-vehicle days’ supply of 81 at the start of October is just one day more than the 80 days we saw back at the beginning of October 2019. Days’ supply continues to run below the average 83 days we saw in the first six months of the year.

The total U.S. supply of available unsold new vehicles opened October at 2.76 million units. This is up 25% year over year but down 20% from 2019 levels. Keep in mind that most dealerships have approximately 37% fresh MY25 product on their showroom floors, with automakers providing more incentives to move older metal.
[[File:724aaf7fe1ef299cae82b8f5939b18da35765a66 2 1035x508.png|center|thumb|766x766px]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-28 200302.png|center|thumb|771x771px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-september-2024/]]

==== Used ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-28 204542.png|center|thumb|779x779px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-september-2024/]]

=== June 2024 ===

==== Used ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-07-24 103454.png|center|thumb|720x720px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Cox-Automotive-Mid-Year-Review-Presentation.pdf]]

==== New ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-07-24 103421.png|center|thumb|703x703px|[https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Cox-Automotive-Mid-Year-Review-Presentation.pdf https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Cox-Automotive-Mid-Year-Review-Presentation.pd]]]

*

== Affordability ==
[[US Auto Affordability: Historical Releases]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-11 165655.png|alt=|center|thumb|719x719px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/march-2024-vai/]]
[[File:Screenshot 2023-10-10 110727.png|center|thumb|698x698px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Sept-26-Q3-2023-Cox-Automotive-Industry-Insights-Presentation.pdf]]

=== September 2024 ===

* The estimated average auto loan rate declined in August by 41 basis points to 9.95%1, the lowest average rate in more than a year.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/august-2024-vai/</ref>
* The typical payment in August declined 1.6% to $737, the lowest in two years.
* The number of median weeks of income needed to purchase the average new vehicle declined to 36.1 weeks from a downwardly revised 36.8 weeks in July, reaching the lowest level since May 2021.

=== June 2024 ===

* The typical monthly payment increased by 0.6% to $756, and the number of median weeks of income needed to purchase the average new vehicle rose to 37.2 weeks from 37.1 weeks in May. The average monthly payment had previously peaked at $795 in December 2022.
* The estimated number of weeks of median income needed to purchase the average new vehicle in June was down 6.3% from the same time last year.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/june-2024-vai/</ref>

=== March 2024 ===
Along with the decrease in average rate, income growth continued, the average new-vehicle transaction price declined, and incentives increased. The typical payment decreased by 1.2%, and the number of median weeks of income needed to purchase the average new vehicle declined to 36.9 weeks from an upwardly revised 37.5 weeks in February.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/march-2024-vai/</ref>

* The typical new vehicle loan interest rate declined 15 basis points to 10.47% in March, which was the lowest average since September. The median income grew 0.3%, while the average new-vehicle transaction price declined 0.1%. As a result of these changes, the estimated typical monthly payment decreased by 1.2% to $744 from $753 in February. The average monthly payment peaked at $795 in December 2022.
* The estimated number of weeks of median income needed to purchase the average new vehicle in March was down 6.2% from last year.

== Auto Loan Performance ==
[[US Auto Loan Performance: Historical Releases]]

=== Auto Loans ===
[[File:Auto Loansa24.png|center|thumb|1194x1194px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/views/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/AutoLoans_1?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
! colspan="4" |Consumer Auto Loan
! colspan="4" |Motor Vehicle Loans Owned and Securitized<ref>https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i4ExbgRuG_nwDKnq1gJyTMi21X2sCf7qdA49zbHTDQU/edit?gid=1458970427#gid=1458970427&range=K1</ref>
|-
!Trillions
!Q/Q Level Trillions
!Q/Q Ann
!Y/Y
!Billions
!Q/Q Level Billions
!Q/Q Ann
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-04-01
|1.626
|0.010
|2.50
|2.78
|1,565
|10.73
|2.79%
|1.95%
|-
|2024-01-01
|1.616
|0.009
|2.26
|3.46
|1,554
| -0.92
| -0.24%
|2.51%
|-
|2023-10-01
|1.607
|0.012
|3.04
|3.54
|1,555
|3.00
|0.78%
|3.72%
|-
|2023-07-01
|1.595
|0.013
|3.33
|4.66
|1,552
|17.18
|4.55%
|5.11%
|-
|2023-04-01
|1.582
|0.020
|5.22
|5.33
|1,535
|18.75
|5.04%
|6.22%
|-
|2023-01-01
|1.562
|0.010
|2.60
|6.33
|1,516
|16.89
|4.58%
|7.50%
|-
|2022-10-01
|1.552
|0.028
|7.55
|6.45
|1,499
|22.59
|6.26%
|7.67%
|-
|2022-07-01
|1.524
|0.022
|5.99
|5.61
|1,477
|31.71
|9.07%
|7.11%
|-
|2022-04-01
|1.502
|0.033
|9.29
|6.15
|1,445
|34.64
|10.19%
|6.80%
|-
|2022-01-01
|1.469
|0.011
|3.05
|6.30
|1,411
|17.85
|5.23%
|13.69%
|-
|2021-10-01
|1.458
|0.015
|4.22
|6.11
|1,393
|13.84
|4.08%
|13.74%
|-
|2021-07-01
|1.443
|0.028
|8.15
|6.10
|1,379
|25.74
|7.83%
|13.17%
|-
|2021-04-01
|1.415
|0.033
|9.90
|5.60
|1,353
|112.37
|41.45%
|13.00%
|-
|2021-01-01
|1.382
|0.008
|2.35
|2.37
|1,241
|16.31
|5.44%
|4.80%
|-
|2020-10-01
|1.374
|0.014
|4.18
|3.31
|1,224
|6.00
|1.99%
|3.40%
|-
|2020-07-01
|1.360
|0.020
|6.11
|3.03
|1,218
|21.02
|7.21%
|3.66%
|-
|2020-04-01
|1.340
| -0.010
| -2.93
|3.08
|1,197
|13.51
|4.64%
|3.23%
|-
|2020-01-01
|1.350
|0.020
|6.15
|5.47
|1,184
| -0.23
| -0.08%
|3.47%
|-
|2019-10-01
|1.330
|0.010
|3.06
|4.72
|1,184
|8.70
|3.00%
|3.91%
|}

=== Deliquencies ===
[[File:Auto Deliquenciesa24.png|center|thumb|1145x1145px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/investmentwiki/viz/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/AutoDeliquencies#1</ref>]]

=== Credit Quality ===
[[File:Auto Loan Originations by Credit Scorea24.png|center|thumb|1197x1197px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/investmentwiki/viz/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/AutoLoanOriginationsbyRiskScore#1</ref><ref>https://public.tableau.com/views/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/AutoLoanOriginationsbyRiskScore2?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]
[[File:Share Auto Loan Originations by Credit Scorea24.png|center|thumb|1195x1195px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/investmentwiki/viz/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/AutoLoanOriginationsbyRiskScore#1</ref><ref>https://public.tableau.com/views/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/ShareAutoLoanOriginationsbyFICOScore2?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]

=== Cox Developments ===

==== June 2024 ====
Auto loan performance deteriorated in June, as delinquencies and defaults increased.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-07-15-24/</ref>

* In June, 1.81% of auto loans were severely delinquent, an increase from 1.80% in May, but not back to the higher levels we saw in March and February.
* Defaults increased 3.6% in total in June and were up 12.6% year over year.
* The June annualized default rate was 2.92%, 10 basis points (BPs) higher than May and higher than the 2.49% annualized default rate in 2019.
* The year-to-date default rate is 3.07%, which is 17 BPs higher than the default rate in 2019.

==== March 2024 ====

* In March, 1.88% of auto loans were severely delinquent. That was down from 2.04% in February and was the highest rate for March, dating back to at least 2006.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-04-15-24/</ref>
* 7.25% of subprime loans were severely delinquent in March, down from 7.99% in February, but also at the highest rate for March dating back to at least 2006.
* Defaults increased in March by 8.5% from February and were up 33.4% year over year. Defaults of subprime auto loans increased by 13.9% and were up 28% year over year. '''The annualized default rate for March was 3.40%, which was 26 basis points higher than February and higher than the 2.90% annualized default rate in March 2019.''' '''The year-to-date default rate is 3.23%, which is equivalent to the default rate in 2010.'''
* Credit access is tighter than a year ago in all channels and most lender types. By channel, certified pre-owned loans saw the most loosening, while used loans through independent dealers saw the least amount of loosening. On a year-over-year basis, all channels were tighter, with used loans through franchised dealers having seen the most tightening. Among lenders, captives loosened the most in March, but auto-focused finance companies were the only lenders to be looser year over year.

== Credit Standards<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STDSAUTO</ref> ==
Tightening Standards are increasing significantly for auto loan since last year, but still below levels seen during the pandemic.

=== Q1 2023<ref>https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202301.htm</ref> ===

* Moderate net shares of banks reported tighter standards for auto.
* Banks reported tightening most queried terms on auto loans, on net. In particular, a moderate net share of banks reported wider interest rate spreads on such loans, while modest net shares reported higher minimum repayments and higher minimum credit score requirements.

== Forecasts ==

=== Forecast 2024 ===

==== September 2024 ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-11 170706.png|center|thumb|805x805px]]

==== June 2024 ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-07-24 104651.png|center|thumb|790x790px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Cox-Automotive-Mid-Year-Review-Presentation.pdf]]

==== March 2024 ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-18 105744.png|center|thumb|790x790px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/2024-cox-automotive-forecasts-full-year/]]

==== December 2023 ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-12 131349.png|center|thumb|784x784px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/2024-cox-automotive-forecasts-full-year/]]

=== Forecast 2023 ===

==== March 2023 ====

===== Sales =====

* With '''new-vehicle''' inventory levels improving as demand slows, Cox Automotive forecasts 3% YoY new-vehicle sales growth in 2023, with the market hitting '''14.2 million units.'''
* For '''used cars''', it expects YoY growth of -1.66% to reach '''36.2 million''' units in 2023. <ref name=":1">https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Jan-12-2023-Cox-Automotive-Industry-Insights-and-Forecast-Call-Presentation.pdf High Quality Source</ref>

===== Prices =====

* JPM research expects prices to decline by 2.5% to 5% for new cars and by 10% to 20% for used cars in 2023.<ref>https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/when-will-car-prices-drop#:~:text=Average%20prices%20were%20up%2042.5,to%2020%25%20for%20used%20cars</ref>
* Cox Automotive expects a 1.6% increase in the December YoY MANHEIM USED VEHICLE VALUE INDEX. <ref name=":1" />

==== June 2023 ====

* The total '''used-vehicle sales''' forecast for 2023 has been revised down slightly by Cox Automotive to be '''35.7 million, 2% below 2022.'''
* Cox Automotive raised its '''new car sales full-year forecast to 15 million''', from 14.2 million in March, as deliveries to businesses and rental-car companies, which evaporated during pandemic scarcity, rebounded.
* Used car index down -1.1% Y/Y on December 2023.

==== September 2023 ====

* '''The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index forecast is expected to finish the year down 2.2% year over year.''' Risks remain in the fourth quarter, including the United Auto Workers strike, a possible economic slowdown, and political uncertainty that puts downward pressure on consumer sentiment.<ref name=":4">https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/september-2023-muvvi/</ref>
* The total '''used-vehicle sales''' forecast for 2023 remained the same by Cox Automotive to be '''35.7 million, 2% below 2022.'''
* Cox Automotive raised its '''new car sales full-year forecast to 15.4 million''', from 15 million in June.

* 
== Auto Industry behaviour during recession ==
See: [[Auto Industry Cyclicality]]

== References ==

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 December

2025-01-14T20:46:11Z

MagaNH6: Created page with "''Return to: Consumer Price Index | Historical Releases'' | Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01152025.htm Publishing date: January 15, 2025 ==CPI expectations== Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)File:Screenshot 2024-12-10 123140.png|center|thumb|1181x1181px|https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets..."

''Return to: [[Consumer Price Index]] | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases|Historical Releases]]'' | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November]]

Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01152025.htm

Publishing date: January 15, 2025

==CPI expectations==
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]])[[File:Screenshot 2024-12-10 123140.png|center|thumb|1181x1181px|https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzvIAz6CBS78vH1moNA-foaZA0HWOb-AG1DfvCUJDio/edit?gid=1233713232#gid=1233713232]]''Range:''
*CPI: 2.7% - 3.0%
*Core CPI: 3.2% - 3.4%
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Escenario'''
|'''Market reaction'''
|'''Probability by Magaly'''
|-
|CPI below 2.8%
|2%+ rally
|5%
|-
|CPI at 2.8%
|1.5% Rally
|15%
|-
|CPI in line with expectations
|Flat
|50%
|-
|CPI at 3.0%
|2% drop
|25%
|-
|CPI above 3.0%
|3% drop
|5%
|}
===Consensus forecast===
{| class="wikitable"
!Variable
!Forecast
!Previous
|-
|Core CPI (MoM)
|0.26%
|0.3%
|-
|Core CPI (YoY)
|3.3%
|3.3%
|-
|CPI (MoM)
|0.38%
|0.3%
|-
|CPI (YoY)
|2.9%
|2.7%
|}
===FED Cleveland Forecast===
{| class="wikitable"
!<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref>
! colspan="2" |YoY Change
! colspan="2" |MoM Change
|-
!Month
!CPI
!Core CPI
!CPI
!Core CPI
|-
|December 2024
|2.86
|3.28
|0.38
|0.27
|-
|January 2025
|2.79
|3.18
|0.21
|0.27
|}
===Institutions Forecasts===
[[File:GhNJ5c5XAAAhR5W.png|center|thumb|634x634px|https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1878926790414279084/photo/1]]

==References==
<references />

File:GhNJ5c5XAAAhR5W.png

2025-01-14T20:43:41Z

MagaNH6:

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November

2025-01-14T20:35:47Z

MagaNH6:

''Return to: [[Consumer Price Index]] | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases|Historical Releases]]'' | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 October]]

Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12112024.htm

Publishing date: December 11, 2024

== Results ==
{| class="wikitable"
!Variable
!Actual
!Forecast
!Previous
|-
|Core CPI (MoM)
|0.3%
|0.3%
|0.3%
|-
|Core CPI (YoY)
|3.3%
|3.3%
|3.3%
|-
|CPI (MoM)
|0.3%
|0.3%
|0.2%
|-
|CPI (YoY)
|2.7%
|2.7%
|2.6%
|}

* Headline CPI rose 0.3% in November, up from 0.2% in October but in line with the forecast.
* On a yearly basis, headline CPI rose 2.7%, up from 2.6% in October but in line with the estimate.
* Core inflation rose 0.3% on the month and 3.3% y/y, both in line with the estimates.
* Supercore inflation rose 0.34%, up from 0.3% in October.

==CPI expectations ==
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]])
[[File:Screenshot 2024-12-10 123140.png|center|thumb|1181x1181px|https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzvIAz6CBS78vH1moNA-foaZA0HWOb-AG1DfvCUJDio/edit?gid=1233713232#gid=1233713232]]

''Range:''
*CPI: 2.6% - 2.8%
*Core CPI: 3.2% - 3.4%
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Escenario'''
|'''Market reaction'''
|'''Probability by Magaly'''
|-
|CPI below 2.6%
|1%+ rally
|5%
|-
|CPI at 2.6%
|0.5% Rally
|15%
|-
|CPI in line with expectations
|Flat
|50%
|-
|CPI at 2.8%
|1% drop
|25%
|-
|CPI above 2.8%
|2.5% drop
|5%
|}
===Consensus forecast===
{| class="wikitable"
!Variable
!Forecast
!Previous
|-
|Core CPI (MoM)
|0.3%
|0.3%
|-
|Core CPI (YoY)
|3.3%
|3.3%
|-
|CPI (MoM)
|0.3%
|0.2%
|-
|CPI (YoY)
|2.7%
|2.6%
|}
===FED Cleveland Forecast===
{| class="wikitable"
!<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref>
! colspan="2" |YoY Change
! colspan="2" |MoM Change
|-
!Month
!CPI
!Core CPI
!CPI
!Core CPI
|-
|November 2024
|2.7
|3.3
|0.26
|0.27
|-
|December 2024
|2.81
|3.27
|0.37
|0.27
|}

=== Institutions Forecasts ===
[[File:GeZ8pyGXoAA7CDe.png|center|thumb|687x687px|https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1866452808574063058/photo/1]]

==References==

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November

2025-01-14T20:29:22Z

MagaNH6:

''Return to: [[Consumer Price Index]] | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases|Historical Releases]]'' | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 October]]

Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12112024.htm

Publishing date: December 11, 2024

== Results ==
{| class="wikitable"
!Variable
!Actual
!Forecast
!Previous
|-
|Core CPI (MoM)
|
|0.3%
|0.3%
|-
|Core CPI (YoY)
|
|3.3%
|3.3%
|-
|CPI (MoM)
|
|0.3%
|0.2%
|-
|CPI (YoY)
|
|2.7%
|2.6%
|}

* Headline CPI rose 0.3% in November, up from 0.2% in October but in line with the forecast.
* On a yearly basis, headline CPI rose 2.7%, up from 2.6% in October but in line with the estimate.
* Core inflation rose 0.3% on the month and 3.3% y/y, both in line with the estimates.
* Supercore inflation rose 0.34%, up from 0.3% in October.

==CPI expectations ==
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]])
[[File:Screenshot 2024-12-10 123140.png|center|thumb|1181x1181px|https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzvIAz6CBS78vH1moNA-foaZA0HWOb-AG1DfvCUJDio/edit?gid=1233713232#gid=1233713232]]

''Range:''
*CPI: 2.6% - 2.8%
*Core CPI: 3.2% - 3.4%
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Escenario'''
|'''Market reaction'''
|'''Probability by Magaly'''
|-
|CPI below 2.6%
|1%+ rally
|5%
|-
|CPI at 2.6%
|0.5% Rally
|15%
|-
|CPI in line with expectations
|Flat
|50%
|-
|CPI at 2.8%
|1% drop
|25%
|-
|CPI above 2.8%
|2.5% drop
|5%
|}
===Consensus forecast===
{| class="wikitable"
!Variable
!Forecast
!Previous
|-
|Core CPI (MoM)
|0.3%
|0.3%
|-
|Core CPI (YoY)
|3.3%
|3.3%
|-
|CPI (MoM)
|0.3%
|0.2%
|-
|CPI (YoY)
|2.7%
|2.6%
|}
===FED Cleveland Forecast===
{| class="wikitable"
!<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref>
! colspan="2" |YoY Change
! colspan="2" |MoM Change
|-
!Month
!CPI
!Core CPI
!CPI
!Core CPI
|-
|November 2024
|2.7
|3.3
|0.26
|0.27
|-
|December 2024
|2.81
|3.27
|0.37
|0.27
|}

=== Institutions Forecasts ===
[[File:GeZ8pyGXoAA7CDe.png|center|thumb|687x687px|https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1866452808574063058/photo/1]]

==References==

Advertising Industry

2025-01-13T20:57:35Z

MagaNH6:

[[Industries|Industries Overview]]

[[Advertising Industry: Search]]

[[Advertising Industry: Social Media]]

Forum Topic: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/advertising-markets/92

== Methodology ==
Short description methodolgy

==== Data Sources ====

* Magna
* Zenith
* Tiniuti
* Dentsu
* S4

== Developments ==

=== Tinuiti ===

==== Q4 2023 ====
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth<ref name=":1" />
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0" />
|-
|Meta
|13%
| -3%
|16%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|8%
| -5%
|14%
|-
|''Instagram''
|27%
| 2%
|24%
|-
|TikTok
|64%
| 14%
|44%
|-
|Google
|17%
|9%
|8%
|-
|Amazon
|17%
|19%
| -2%
|-
|Walmart
|62%
| 34%
|21%
|}
==== Q3 2023 ====
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth<ref name=":1">https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dZ1kFgBmP-B16_EBlikJUSciXDfGmEa2/view</ref>
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0" />
|-
|Meta
|19%
| -19%
|46%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|16%
| -20
|46%
|-
|''Instagram''
|25%
| -11%
|41%
|-
|TikTok
|12%
| -8%
|21%
|-
|Google
|13%
|4%
|8%
|-
|Amazon
|14%
|8%
|5%
|-
|Walmart
|55%
| 33%
|17%
|}
==== Q2 2023 ====
Most of the major digital ad platforms saw an acceleration in spending growth in Q2 2023, with Instagram leading the way with a 16-point improvement in growth compared to a quarter earlier.<ref>https://drive.google.com/file/d/1soM8MQV1aQD8pQxkM225AR714JtniPzb/view</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0">https://drive.google.com/file/d/1soM8MQV1aQD8pQxkM225AR714JtniPzb/view</ref>
|-
|Meta
|9%
| -25%
|44%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|''2%''
| ''-25%''
|''37%''
|-
|''Instagram''
|''31%''
| ''-29%''
|''84%''
|-
|TikTok
|11%
| -4%
|16%
|-
|Google
|11%
|0%
|11%
|-
|Amazon
|8%
|3%
|5%
|-
|Walmart
|39%
| -4%
|45%
|}
'''Meta Platforms'''

* Meta ad spend rose 9% year-over-year versus a flat growth rate in Q1 2023.
* Meta impressions rose 44% year-over-year(Q1 2023:+42%), helped by Reels.
* Meta Platforms CPM fell 25% year-over-year(Q1 2023:-30%).

'''Facebook'''

* Facebook ad spend rose 2% year-over-year, the first positive growth in the last four quarters(Q1 2023:-4%)
* Facebook CPM declined 25% year over year(Q1 2023: -32%)
* Facebook impression rose 37%(Q1 2023: 42%)

'''Instagram'''

* Instagram impression rose 84% year-over-year(Q1 2023: 45%)
* Ad spend growth on Instagram more than doubled to 31% year-over-year from 15% in Q1 2023, aided by Instagram Reels and Explore Grid Home placements.
* Instagram CPM declined 29% year-over-year(Q1 2023: -20%).
* Instagram Reels CPC was 13% lower than that of Instagram Feeds, compared to 19% in Q1 2023.

'''TikTok'''

* Tik tok as spend rose to 11%
* TikTok CPM declined 4% year-over-year(Q1 2023:+44%).
* TikTok impression rose 16% in Q2 from a 13% decline in Q1.

== Advertising Forecast ==

=== Disclaimers ===
Do advertising agencies like Magna and Zenith have a positive bias?
=== Magna Forecast ===

==== December 2024 ====
'''Total Market Overview'''

* '''Global Ad Revenue:''' In 2024, media owners' ad revenues reached '''$933 billion''', growing by '''+10.3%''', marking the strongest growth in 25 years (excluding post-COVID recovery in 2021).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/</ref>
* '''Digital Pure Players (DPP):''' Ad sales increased by '''+13%''' to $659 billion, driven by '''Search/Commerce (+12%)''', '''Short-Form Video (+12%)''', and '''Social Media (+18%)'''.
* '''Traditional Media Owners (TMO):''' Revenues grew '''+4%''' to $274 billion, the best performance since 2010, driven by cyclical events (e.g., US elections, Summer Olympics) and '''+12% growth in non-linear ad sales (e.g., ad-supported streaming)'''.
* '''Regional Performance:''' Dynamic markets included the US and France (+12%), India and the UK (+11%), and Brazil (+14%). Growth was slower in China (+7%) and Germany (+6%).
* '''Key Verticals:''' Automotive, Finance, and CPG/FMCG were among the fastest-growing industries, while Travel showed signs of slowing.

'''Digital Advertising (DPP)'''

* '''Drivers:'''
** Growth fueled by ecommerce competition (e.g., Temu and Shein targeting Europe).
** The rise of retail media networks, which now account for $144 billion.
** Improved monetization of short-form vertical videos on social platforms like Instagram and YouTube.
** AI-powered algorithms enhancing ad placement and effectiveness.
* '''2025 Forecast:''' DPP ad sales are expected to grow by '''+9.4%''' to reach '''$721 billion''', with strong contributions from '''Retail Search (+13%)''' and '''Social Media (+13%)'''

'''Market Leaders'''

* '''The Big Three (Google, Meta, Amazon):'''
** Combined ad revenues grew '''+11% (Google)''', '''+22% (Meta)''', and '''+21% (Amazon)''', increasing their market share to '''51% globally''' and '''61% outside China'''.
** Benefited from innovations like short-form video monetization and ecommerce-driven advertising.

'''2025 Outlook'''

* '''Global Ad Revenue:''' Forecast to grow by '''+6.1%''' to $990 billion, driven by '''DPP (+9%)''', while TMO revenues are expected to decline by '''-2%''' due to a lack of major cyclical events.
* '''Key Trends:'''
** Stabilization of the European economy may boost ad spending in key markets like Germany and the UK.
** CPI inflation is slowing to '''+2%-3%''', enhancing consumer purchasing power and ad spending.
** Organic growth drivers, including AI and ecommerce, will continue to support digital ad growth.

[[File:Screenshot 2025-01-13 095407.png|center|thumb|780x780px|https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/]]
[[File:Screenshot 2025-01-13 095429.png|center|thumb|771x771px|https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/]]

==== September 2024 ====
<nowiki>**</nowiki> US only Update

Based on MAGNA’s analysis of media companies’ financial reports, '''total US ad revenues grew by +11.0% year-over-year in the second quarter. That was in line with first quarter, and in line with – slightly stronger – than MAGNA’s projection''' (+10.4%).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/political-and-olympic-advertising-boost-strong-us-ad-market/</ref>

* '''Digital pure players ad sales, rose by approx. +16% YOY''', as both Meta and Google credited new AI tools – optimizing content creation or insertion – as driving incremental spending from brands. The Big Three (Meta, Google, Amazon) reported YOY ad sales growth rates ranging +15% to +18% for the quarter.

'''MAGNA is increasing its forecast for second half, non-cyclical ad spend growth to +7.4% (previously: +6.4%).''' The half-year YOY growth rate was always expected to slow down in the second half of 2024 due to very imbalanced comps in 2023 (weak first half, strong second half).

* '''For the full-year 2024 MAGNA is now expecting advertising revenues to grow by +11.4% to $377bn (+8.9% excluding cyclical).''' +8.9% would be the strongest non-cyclical growth rate in more than twenty years, if excluding the post-COVID recovery in 2021.
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-21 101530.png|center|thumb|748x748px|https://magnaglobal.com/political-and-olympic-advertising-boost-strong-us-ad-market/]]

==== June 2024 ====
MAGNA is raising its 2024 growth forecast following a '''stronger-than-expected ad market in the first quarter (+12%)''' and an improvement in the economic outlook (real GDP growth +3.2%, US +2.5%).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/</ref>

* MAGNA’s “Global Ad Forecast” predicts media owners net advertising revenues (NAR) will reach $927 billion this year, growing +10.0% over 2023. This is a significant acceleration on the global growth recorded in 2023 (+6.4%). Neutralizing the impact of cyclical events in 2023 and 2024, the normalized acceleration is still real but more modest: non-cyclical ad revenues grew by +7.5% in 2023 and will grow by +8.7% in 2024.

* 1Q24 was an even stronger than expected. Year-over-Year growth average +12% in key markets, +17% in Spain, +15% in France, and Germany. Quarterly growth rates will gradually slow as comps become tougher in the second half, but this strong start of the year, coupled with a stronger economic outlook led us to raise the full year 2024 forecast for almost every individual market monitor, bringing the expected global growth from +6.4% in December, to +10% now. The full-year ad revenues of traditional media owners are now forecast to grow by +3% instead of +2%, and the ad sales of digital pure players are now expected to grow by +13% (previously +9.4%).
* '''In the first quarter of 2024, the leading global digital vendors reported the strongest growth rates in more than two years.''' Based on MAGNA’s analysis of financial report, global Search ad sales grew by +16% year-over-year, pure-play video by +21% and Social Media by +28% year-over-year. Quarterly growth rates are bound to slow down as comps will gradually get tougher, but MAGNA anticipates double-digit growth for all key digital formats and vendors this year.
* Full-year 2023, Google, Meta, and Amazon organic ad revenues increased by +6%, +16% and +24% respectively. '''The big three now attract a combined 60% of total advertising revenues outside China''' ($417 billion out of $698 billion), up from 57% in 2021-2022. Including China – where they don’t operate – they control 49% of global ad sales.
* US Media owners advertising revenues are forecast to reach an all-time high of $374 billion this year, growing +10.7% over 2023. This is 1.5 percentage points above our previous full-year forecast (+9.2% in our March 2024 update), following a stronger-than-expected start of the year (+12% in the first quarter) and an improvement in the macro-economic outlook – with the latest GDP growth forecasts raised to a robust +2.5%. The macro-economic factor offsets slightly lower cyclical expectations, as our political advertising forecast is reduced following by weaker-than-expected fundraising in the first few months of the year. We still expect the 2024 election campaigns to generate $9 billion dollars of incremental advertising revenues for US media owners this year, an increase of +10% vs 2020.
* The US remains the largest and most intense ad market in the world with advertisers spending $1,100 per consumer in 2024; it’s 8 times more than the global average ($160), ten times more than China ($110) and a hundred times more than India ($10). 

'''Global Forecasts'''
[[File:Table-3-Global-Ad-Forecast-for-2024.png|center|thumb|683x683px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/]]
'''US Forecasts'''
[[File:Table-1-US-Ad-Forecast.png|center|thumb|722x722px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/]]

==== March 2024 ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101337.png|center|thumb|738x738px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101001.png|center|thumb|734x734px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]

Based on MAGNA’s analysis of media companies’ financials''',''' '''non-cyclical advertising revenues grew by +9.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023''' e., the strongest quarterly growth in almost two years, bringing full-year 2023 ad market growth to +5.7%.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/digital-momentum-leads-ad-market-forecast-to-9/</ref>

Because of an improving macro-economic outlook, the momentum of digital media and streaming, and the impact of cyclical events, '''MAGNA anticipates more growth in 2024''': '''total media owners ad revenues will increase by +9.2% to reach $369 billion'''. That’s nearly one percentage point above the previous forecast (+8.4% in Dec. 2023).

'''Advertising spend around major cyclical events will drive approx. $10 billion of incremental ad sales as the 2024 election cycle will generate $9 billion''' of additional ad revenue for media owners (+13% vs the 2020 cycle). '''This will add 2.5 percentage points to the non-cyclical growth rate''', bringing total revenue growth from +6.7% (non-cyclical ad sales) to +9.2% (total ad sales). The impact will be even greater for some media categories like Local TV (excluding political -4%, including political +26%).

* Digital pure players (DPP) dominating Search, Retail, Social and Short-Form Video formats will once again capture most of the growth, with '''DPP ad sales growing by +11.7% to $260 billion''' (previous forecast +10.5%).
* '''Short form, pure player digital video''' ad sales (primarily YouTube and Twitch), will grow by +12% this year to reach $22 billion.
* '''Social media sales will feel the wind at their back and will rise +14% to $81 billion.''' Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming an increasingly important tool used by advertisers to set up, run, and optimize their social media campaigns. MAGNA looks for this to drive additional sales in 2024, especially for small businesses setting up their first campaigns.
* '''Search/Retail ad sales will increase by nearly +12% to $146 billion in 2024''' and will also benefit from increasing AI functionality in helping brands set up and run new advertising campaigns.
* '''Audio ad sales''' (terrestrial and satellite radio, audio streaming, and podcasting) will be stable at around $16 billion in 2024. Digital audio usage and ad sales continue to develop but growth rates are maturing (+6%), which means it barely offsets the erosion of linear radio (-3%)
* '''Long-Form Streaming advertising will expand by +13% to reach $10 billion milestone.'''

[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101835.png|center|thumb|745x745px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 102009.png|center|thumb|750x750px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]

==== December 2023 ====

[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-03 162449.png|center|thumb|722x722px|https://magnaglobal.com/digital-advertising-reaccelerated-in-2023-major-events-will-fuel-traditional-media-in-2024/]]

MAGNA’s “Global Ad Forecast” predicts that global media owners '''net advertising revenues (NAR) will reach $853 billion this year, +5.5%''' above the 2022 level, and will grow by +7.2% in 2024.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/digital-advertising-reaccelerated-in-2023-major-events-will-fuel-traditional-media-in-2024/</ref>

* Advertising spending accelerated and grew by +6.3% yoy in the second half of 2023 following a weaker first half (+4.7%) to average +5.5 growth full year.
* '''Digital Pure-Play media owners (DPP) ad revenue g'''rew by +10.5% to $587bn (69% of total ad sales). DPP ad sales are driven by organic growth factors incl. the rise of ecommerce, retail media
* The US market grew +3.6% to $338 billion this year (National TV -6%, Local TV -22%, Audio -4%, Publishing -7%, OOH +2%, Search +10%, Social +14%). Non-cyclical ad revenue is up +5.4% in 2023 and will accelerate to +5.9% in 2024 (+8.4% including cyclical ad spend – including almost $10 billion in political spending).
* In 2024, economic stabilization, lower inflation, digital innovation, and the return of major cyclical events (elections, international sports events) will drive ad spend +7.2% to $914 billion, +8.4% in the US. TMO ad revenues will recover by +2.2% while digital pure players ad sales will increase by +9.4%.
* After stagnating for several quarters, the global advertising sales of Google, Meta and Alibaba re-accelerated since 2Q23 to reach a year-to-date 1Q-3Q growth of +4%, +13% and +5% respectively.
* These three media owners account for a combined 49% of global advertising revenues. Outside China, the top three vendors are Google, Meta, and Amazon, capturing 80% to 90% of digital ad spend and 56% of ''total'' ad spend (the market share being lower for national consumer brands higher for small, local, direct advertisers).

==== September 2023 ====
'''''Focused on US only'''''

'''Total advertising spending re-accelerated in the second quarter of 2023. Sales were up +4.4% year-over-year, following two quarters of stagnation'''.However, only pure-play digital media vendors (Search, Social, Video) really benefited (+8.7% in 2Q23), while traditional media companies continued to struggle (-4.1% in 2Q23).The recovery in ad spend in 2Q23 was caused by a general improvement in the economy, and easier yoy comps<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-forecast-fall-2023/</ref>
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-25 104318.png|center|thumb|765x765px|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-forecast-fall-2023/]]

* As the US economy and advertising spending were both stronger than expected so far this year, and digital media is finally recovering from its 2022 woes, '''MAGNA raises its full-year ad revenue growth forecast to +5.2% for 2023 to reach $337 billion'''
* With the economic outlook improving and yoy comps becoming even easier, MAGNA maintains its growth forecast for the second half of the year. '''Total ad spend will grow by +7% to +8% in 3Q23 and 4Q23 (compared to +2.9% in first half) to bring full year growth to +5.2% (excluding cyclical), up from +4.2% in our previous update (June 2023).'''

* Around the average advertising spending growth of +4.4% in 2Q23, MAGNA observed a strong dynamic from Travel, Pharma and Retail brands, and – more surprisingly – CPG (food, drinks, personal care). The slowdown of inflation in recent months may explain this recovery in CPG brand business and marketing spending, after a difficult year 2022 when high inflation hurt the sales of premium brands.
* Looking at individual media types, digital media formats will outperform again in the next 18 months, growing by high-single digits or low double-digits. Social media formats and short-form digital video formats are finally recovering from the headwinds and disruptions that hurt ad sales in 2022, brought on by the modifications to privacy settings in the Apple environment and the rapid rise of short vertical video snacking.

==== June 2023 ====
'''Advertising spending slowed down to a halt in the first quarter of 2023 (+1.5% globally, flat in most Western markets) due to economic uncertainty and the lack of cyclical drivers.''' There are, however, some drivers mitigating the impact of economic slowdown: Ecommerce and Retail Media bringing more marketing dollars into digital advertising formats, and the counter-cyclical dynamic of some large industry verticals (Retail, Auto, Travel).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-market-june-2023-update/</ref>
[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-14 112834.png|center|thumb|683x683px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-market-june-2023-update/]]

* Magna predicts media owners advertising revenues will reach '''$842 billion this year, +4.6% growth vs. 2022 ($805bn). Deterioration of economic conditions and marketing spending in most Western markets is mitigated by stronger-than-expected growth in some markets (China, Spain), industry verticals (Retail) and media types (Retail, Social).'''
* Traditional media companies and branding formats (Television, Audio, Publishing, OOH, Cinema) are most exposed in this uncertain business climate, as some brands reduce marketing budget or prioritize performance-based digital ad formats.
* '''Digital pure-play advertising sales will grow by +8.5% to reach $577 billion dollars i.e., 69% of total ad sales''', driven by organic growth factors (ecommerce, retail media, media consumption shifts, stabilization in the data landscape).
* The strongest ad growth rate this year will come once again from India (+12.3% to $12.6bn); India is the 11th largest market. The Chinese ad market is set to recover faster than previously expected (+8.4%). At the other end of the spectrum, most Western European markets will stagnate this year: Germany, France, Italy all below +3% growth all-media, and negative for traditional media owners.
* In 2024, economic stabilization and the return of major cyclical events (US presidential elections, Paris Olympics, Euro Football championship) will re-accelerate ad spend: +6.1% to $892 billion globally, +7.3% in the US. Traditional media owners’ ad revenues will recover by +1% while digital pure players ad sales will increase by +8%.
* Social media formats will re-accelerate by +9.4% this year reach to $172 billion. The industry seems to have turned a corner in 1Q23 when Meta reported a return to YOY growth on an FX-adjusted basis after two consecutive quarters of flat or negative growth. '''Meta and other established social media vendors seem to have finally recovered from the loss of workable consumer data in the Apple ecosystem since late 2021, and they are making inroads in the monetization of the short vertical videos that have completely changed the user experience, challenging ad optimization, in less than two years.'''
* '''North America and European markets will underperform this year''' (ad market growth of +2.5% and +4.2% resp.), due to weaker economic activity (+1.6% and +0.8% real GDP growth, resp), mature media/marketing landscapes, and a lack of major cyclical driver compared to 2022. APAC (+7.1%) and Latin America (+8.7%) will grow significantly faster.

==== March 2023 ====
'''US update'''[[File:Advertising2.PNG|thumb|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/|alt=|center|571x571px]]In its new 2023 scenario, MAGNA expects little or no growth in the first half (+2% in 1Q23, +4% in 2Q23) against tough quarterly comps, followed by a recovery in the second half (+6% to +7%), as the economy solidifies, and advertising comps become much easier. Overall, full-year advertising revenues will grow by +3.4% this year to reach $326 billion (incl. CE).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/</ref>

* Search and e-commerce advertising formats (Google, Amazon, retail media networks) will continue to be driven by the expansion of e-commerce to CPG and grow by +10% (slowing down from +14% in 2022) to remain the largest advertising format ($125bn in 2023)
* Social media formats (Facebook, Instagram, Tiktok …) will re-accelerate +6% to $66bn after stalling in 2022 (+2%) due to headwinds including audience maturity and the data targeting limitations established in 2021.
* Cross-platform audio ad sales will stabilize at around $17 billion this year. Linear radio ad formats will drop -4%, while digital audio formats (audio streaming, podcasting) will rise +9%. Podcasting will help drive digital audio growth, and grow +16%, though this represents a slowdown compared to MAGNA’s previous forecast of +22%
''Magna is using the assumption of Real GDP growth of +1.3% in 2023.''

=== Grupo M ===

==== December 2024 ====
'''Key Findings:'''<ref>https://www.groupm.com/newsroom/groupms-end-of-year-global-advertising-forecast-projects-9-5-growth-in-total-2024-advertising-revenue/?utm_source=chatgpt.com</ref><ref>https://www.groupm.com/this-year-next-year-2024-global-end-of-year-forecast/</ref>

* '''Global Growth:''' Global advertising revenue is projected to grow 9.5% in 2024, reaching over $1 trillion for the first time (excluding U.S. political ads). A further 7.7% increase is expected in 2025, pushing total revenue to $1.1 trillion.
* '''Digital Dominance:''' Pure-play digital advertising remains the primary growth driver, with a projected 12.4% increase in 2024. Digital is expected to constitute 72.9% of total ad spend by 2025.
* '''Retail Media Expansion:''' Retail media is a key growth area, forecasted to hit $177.1 billion globally in 2025, surpassing TV revenue (including streaming) for the first time.
* '''Out-of-Home (OOH):''' OOH advertising has maintained its share, with digital OOH (DOOH) driving growth, projected to contribute 42% of total OOH revenue by 2025.
* '''Other Channels:'''
** Global audio revenue is expected to remain flat in 2025.
** Print advertising continues to decline due to digitization and AI disruptions.

'''Market Insights:'''

* '''Top Markets Growth:''' All top ten advertising markets are projected to grow in 2024:
** '''U.S.:''' 9.0% growth to $400.2 billion.
** '''China:''' 13.5% growth to $204.5 billion.
** '''Other Key Markets:''' UK, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, Brazil, India, and Australia

=== Dentsu Forecast ===

==== December 2024 ====
Dentsu's Global Ad Spend Forecasts project a 6.8% year-over-year increase in global advertising spend for 2024, reaching $772.4 billion. Growth is expected to continue at 5.9% in 2025, outpacing the global economy by 2.7 percentage points. Key drivers include the resurgence of digital ad spend, major sporting and political events, and stronger economic conditions in the US, UK, Brazil, and France.<ref>https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/global-ad-spend-forecasts-2025</ref><ref>https://info.dentsu.com/TheYearofImpact_2025MediaTrends</ref>

'''Regional Insights:'''

* '''Americas:''' Expected 6.3% growth in 2025, driven by the US and Brazil, with strong digital and streaming investments.
* '''Asia-Pacific:''' Projected 5.8% growth, with AI-driven ad placements boosting digital ad spend, particularly in India.
* '''EMEA:''' Forecasted to grow by 5.0%, led by digital expansion in the UK.

'''Media Channel Trends:'''

* '''Digital:''' Forecasted to grow by 9.2% in 2025, reaching $513 billion and representing 62.7% of global ad spend. Retail media (+21.9%) and paid social (+8.7%) will drive growth, with paid search increasing by 6.7%.
* '''Programmatic Advertising:''' Expected to grow by 11.1% and represent over 70% of digital ad spend by 2027.
* '''Television:''' Marginal growth of 0.6%, with connected TV surging (+18.4%) while traditional broadcast TV declines (-2.5%).
* '''Other Media:''' Print continues to decline, while cinema and out-of-home (OOH) advertising show moderate growth (+3.2% and +3.9%).

'''Key Sectors:'''

* Finance (+6.4%), pharmaceuticals (+5.8%), and travel and transport (+5.5%) are set to see significant ad spend increases, adapting to changing consumer demands.

'''Strategic Insights:''' Dentsu emphasizes the rise of the "algorithmic era," where data-driven, algorithmically enabled ad spend will shape media strategies, reaching 79% of total ad spend by 2027. This shift will continue reshaping how brands engage with consumers, especially in digital-first environments.

Key Trends in the Digital and Social Ad Market:

# '''AI-Powered Media Planning:'''
#* AI is becoming a central tool for media strategy, with platforms like Meta's Advantage+ and Google's Performance Max leading the charge. These tools use AI to automate targeting, creative optimization, and campaign management, improving efficiency and performance.
#* AI helps brands generate predictive insights, dynamic scenario planning, and real-time optimizations across multiple channels.
# '''Algorithm-Driven Advertising:'''
#* The media landscape is evolving into an "algorithmic era" where platforms optimize content and ads based on performance data rather than direct audience engagement.
#* Brands need to adjust strategies to work within these algorithmic systems, focusing on content optimization and automation for targeting diverse audience segments.
# '''Rise of Retail Media Networks:'''
#* Retailers are transforming into major digital ad players, leveraging their first-party shopper data for targeted advertising. Amazon, Walmart, and CVS are among those expanding their ad services.
#* Walmart's acquisition of Vizio offers new data streams and inventory, pushing towards fully shoppable TV experiences.
# '''Connected Television (CTV) and Streaming Ads:'''
#* CTV is scaling rapidly, with platforms like Netflix, Prime Video, and Disney+ enhancing their ad-supported models. Prime Video alone has over 200 million viewers available for campaigns.
#* This expansion is driving ad inventory growth, potentially decreasing CPM rates but increasing competition for premium ad placements.
# '''Micro-Moments and Personalized Engagement:'''
#* AI-driven micro-moments, where brands engage with consumers in personalized, one-to-one interactions, are becoming essential. Social platforms curate content feeds based on user behavior, reducing the need for clicks but increasing the demand for in-feed ads.
#* Business messaging platforms like WhatsApp and WeChat are also being used for direct brand-to-consumer interactions, enhancing personalization.
# '''Creator Economy and Niche Targeting:'''
#* Investment in short-form video, influencer marketing, and live content is rising, with platforms like TikTok and YouTube leading in creator monetization.
#* Brands are increasingly leveraging niche communities and influencers for authentic audience connections, recognizing the power of smaller, highly engaged groups.

==== June 2024 ====

* Global advertising spend is now forecast to grow by 5.0% in 2024 (vs. 3.3% in 2023) to reach $754.4 billion, as spend prospects improve in the UK, Germany, US, Japan, and France.<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/AdSpendMay2024</ref>
* Digital is beating previous growth expectations and is now predicted to increase by 7.4% to capture 59.6% of global spend in 2024, with double-digit growth for retail media and paid social.
* Substantial ad spend increases are forecast for retail media (+32.0% YOY, 17.7% three-year CAGR to 2026), paid social (+13.7% YOY), and programmatic (+10.9% YOY), while paid search (+7.7% YOY) and online video (+6.7% YOY) are set to maintain strong growth.
* The US presidential election alone is forecast to account for about a third ($11 billion) of the incremental ad spend in 2024.
* In the top 12 markets,** inflation-adjusted growth is projected at 2.6% in 2024 (vs. 5.2% at current prices), as media inflation shows signs of coming down but remains high, especially for TV and sought-after digital video formats such as social video.

[[File:Ad Spend Per Medium 2022-2026.png|center|thumb|712x712px|https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/ad-spend-growth-tracks-ahead-of-the-economy#:~:text=Ad%20spend%20growth%20tracks%20ahead,forecasts%20to%205.0%25%20for%202024&text=Global%20advertising%20spend%20is%20now,US%2C%20Japan%2C%20and%20France.]]
[[File:Ad Spend Per Region 2022-2026.png|center|thumb|732x732px|https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/ad-spend-growth-tracks-ahead-of-the-economy#:~:text=Ad%20spend%20growth%20tracks%20ahead,forecasts%20to%205.0%25%20for%202024&text=Global%20advertising%20spend%20is%20now,US%2C%20Japan%2C%20and%20France.]]

===== December 2023 =====
[[File:Share of global spend by channel.jpg|center|thumb|747x747px|https://info.dentsu.com/dentsuGlobalAdSpendForecasts_December2023]]

Latest forecast, covering 58 markets across the globe, is that '''advertising spend will expand by $33.0 billion in 2024 to reach $752.8 billion. This represents a 4.6% growth year-over-year for the ad industry – much faster than the pace seen in 2023 (+2.7% vs. 2022).'''<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/dentsuGlobalAdSpendForecasts_December2023</ref>

* Whilst the first quarter will be the slowest of the year (4.2%), growth is forecast to accelerate in the second quarter (4.9%) before peaking during the third (5.5%), supported by major sports events
* Global advertising spend at constant prices actually decreased by 0.7% in 2023.
* In 2024, advertising spend is forecast to represent, on average, 0.75% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the countries we track, which is consistent with the average annual ad spend/GDP indicator observed in the last 20 years (0.70%).
* In 2024, advertisers will spend, on average, $139 per capita across the world. It is about 75% more than what they spent 20 years ago ($80).
* Digital is expected to follow an upward trajectory to reach $442.6 billion in 2024, representing 58.8% of global advertising spend. Total display spend (including social and digital video) has grown by 6.4% in 2023to reach $220.7 billion. It is forecast to grow by 6.9% in 2024, and by a 6.5% three-year CAGR to 2026.
* In the digital space, retail media investments will accelerate the fastest with a 17.2% three-year CAGR, followed by paid social investments (12.3% three-year CAGR), especially in Asia-Pacific (21.0% three-year CAGR). Programmatic channels, that already account for more than 70% of digital ad spend, are also expected to continue growing by doubledigits (10.2% three-year CAGR).

==== May 2023 ====
“The adjusted for 2023 points to continued growth, albeit adjusted marginally downwards from the 3.5% predicted in the December 2022 report, in the most part due to macroeconomic factors. Exploring behind the headlines, the report also shows '''growth driven by media price inflation rather than increased advertising volume, where advertising spend at constant prices is expected to decline slightly, with –0.6% reduction year on year”'''<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/ad-spend-may-2023-pdf</ref>

* Global advertising spend expected to grow by '''3.3% in 2023 with inflation driving increase to reach US$727.9 billion'''
* Stronger growth ahead, with 2024 global advertising market now expected to increase by 4.7%, to reach US$762.5 billion, with a further 3.8% growth into 2025
* Digital is projected to settle into almost consistent incremental growth for three years, to account for around $3 in every $5 spent in advertising worldwide.
* '''Social spend is forecast to grow by a 12.8% three-year CAGR''', driven by new platforms, social commerce, and the popularity of short-form video content across platforms such as TikTok and Instagram Reels
* '''Programmatic is expected to grow at a 11.0% three-year CAGR to reach a forecast 76% share of digital spend in 2025''', a year-by-year analysis reveals its growth will slow (14.4% in 2023, 9.2% in 2024, 9.5% in 2025).
* Traditional radio is projected to decrease by 0.1% in 2023 whilst '''online radio growth is forecast at 3.6%.'''

=== Zenith Forecast ===

==== December 2023 ====
Zenith’s latest ''Advertising Expenditure Forecasts'' reports continued resilience and forecasts 5.3% global advertising growth for 2023, which is above initial expectations given a healthier than expected Q3 for major digital advertisers.<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-forecasts-4-8-growth-for-2024-marking-continued-adspend-acceleration-into-2025-and-beyond/</ref>

* '''Global adspend growth is expected at 4.8% in 2024,''' excluding U.S. political spending*, aided by events such as the Olympics as well as a combination of continued advertiser spending in support of their brands and the positive impact of Chinese brands fueling growth.
* The Americas are expected to continue as the fastest-growing region with 5.7% advertising growth in 2024. Europe continues to contribute meaningful growth (4.5%) due in part to online spending, while Asia-Pac (3.8%) remains impacted by China’s slower-than-expected recovery.
* Adspend momentum remains steadily on an upward trajectory in large part due to the strong adoption of online propositions such as retail media and social media. Online continues to lead as the fastest-growing category, accounting for 59% of overall spending in 2024 and expected to increase to 61% in 2026, with a CAGR of 4.6%.

==== June 2022 ====

* The global advertising market will continue to maintain its resilience and Zenith '''forecasts a 4.4% growth in global advertising expenditure for 2023'''<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-reports-a-consistent-global-ad-market-with-4-4-growth/</ref>
* Global adspend growth is expected to accelerate '''6.9% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025''' to account for nearly $1 trillion in advertising spending in 2025.
* '''North America''' is expected to continue to provide the biggest contribution to advertising growth between 2023 and 2025 with adspend growing US $53 billion – representing 41% of total adspend during the period. A healthy growth of '''4.3% is expected in 2023 and Zenith forecasts advertising expenditure will then jump to 9.8% in 2024 thanks to the Presidential election and the Olympics.'''
* '''Online, including Retail Media, Search and Social Media''', will continue to lead as the fastest-growing category, constituting 57% of overall adspend in 2023. Zenith forecasts an increase to 59% in '''2025, with a compounded annual growth rate of 6.8%.''' Retail Media will drive the category growth, with an estimated annual global spend of $129 billion in 2025 and an expected compounded annual growth rate of 11.5% from 2022 to 2025.
* Zenith forecasts a compounded growth rate of '''25% between 2022 and 2025 within the Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) space.'''

==== December 2022 ====
According to Zenith, the advertising industry is expected to maintain its resilience in 2023 despite current economic challenges, driven by the growth of new channels such as retail media and advertising on [https://www.appsflyer.com/glossary/svod/ Subscription Video on Demand] (SVOD) services. '''They anticipate a 4.5% growth in ad spending. Furthermore, global ad spending growth is expected to pick up pace to 7.2% in 2024''', driven by major events like the US Presidential elections and the Olympics.<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-forecasts-4-5-growth-for-2023-after-7-3-uplift-in-2022-marking-continued-healthy-growth/#:~:text=Zenith%20estimates%20that%20advertising%20on,are%20likely%20to%20follow%20suit</ref>

Online advertising, specifically Search and Social Media, is expected to continue as the fastest-growing category, making up 55% of overall ad spending in 2022 and projected to increase to 57% by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 7%.
*

*

== Advertising behavior during a recession ==
Looking back at the 3 last recessions<ref>https://www.statista.com/statistics/272443/growth-of-advertising-spending-worldwide/</ref>, it is clear ad budgets get cut during economic contractions, but the magnitude of the decline can vary depending on the severity of the recession, the specific industries and companies involved, and their advertising strategy.

Important to note that the advertising industry could recover quickly after crises, often reaching or even exceeding prior spending levels within one to two years post-economic downturn.

* COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a 3.7 percent decrease in ad spending in 2020 compared to 2019.
* During the Great Financial Crisis, advertising spending experienced a decrease of 9.5% in 2009
* During the Dot Com crisis, advertising spending saw a decrease of 4.04% in 2001
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Year'''
|'''Ad spending in million U.S. dollars'''
|'''Growth Rate'''
|-
|2024*
|884,999
|7.57%
|-
|2023*
|822,756
|5.36%
|-
|2022*
|780,870
|8.03%
|-
|2021
|722,843
|16.00%
|-
|2020
|623,116
| -3.70%
|-
|2019
|647,035
|5.43%
|-
|2018
|613,721
|6.80%
|-
|2017
|574,640
|6.08%
|-
|2016
|541,698
|5.53%
|-
|2015
|513,304
|4.60%
|-
|2014
|490,713
|5.61%
|-
|2013
|464,668
|4.87%
|-
|2012
|443,077
|4.34%
|-
|2011
|424,666
|3.92%
|-
|2010
|408,663
|7.82%
|-
|2009
|379,036
| -9.50%
|-
|2008
|418,828
| -0.12%
|-
|2007
|419,319
|5.60%
|-
|2006
|397,088
|6.56%
|-
|2005
|372,646
|5.22%
|-
|2004
|354,171
|6.61%
|-
|2003
|332,198
|3.01%
|-
|2002
|322,505
|0.10%
|-
|2001
|322,182
| -4.04%
|-
|2000
|335,733
|
|}

=== 2022 Developments ===

==== Magna ====
[[File:US-Ad-Forecast-March-2023-Option-2-768x570.png|center|thumb|580x580px|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/]]
'''Social media''' formats (Facebook, Instagram, Tiktok …) will re-accelerate +6% to $66bn after stalling in 2022 (+2%) due to headwinds including audience maturity and the data targeting limitations established in 2021.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/</ref>

==== News ====

# After years of social media being one of the most powerful engines of digital ad spending growth, 2022 saw the first meaningful decline in social’s share of digital ad spending since Insider Intelligence began tracking it in 2008. This was, in part, due to the rise of retail media and connected TV (CTV), plus a radical slowdown in growth caused by ATT.<ref>https://www.insiderintelligence.com/insights/social-media-paid-ads/</ref>

Previously expected $33.98 billion in social network video ad spending by 2022, and that figure has now been slashed to $29.82 billion—a difference of more than $4 billion. These staggering reductions are the result of a perfect storm starting in 2021—with '''Apple’s rollout of its AppTrackingTransparency framework, followed by a downturn in the global economy due to persistent inflation, soaring interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and the Russia-Ukraine war.'''
[[File:Screenshot 2024-02-07 111654.png|center|thumb|547x547px]]2. Over the full year, UK social media spend, which is a sub-category of the online display section in the report, increased by 4.9%. The overall category grew at 10% in 2022 and is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2023. Total ad spend grew 8.8% in 2022.

* Sharp and sustained falls in social media spend – the first time this has been recorded in the UK – are likely to have been instigated by r'''educed advertising activity among the SMEs who comprise a ‘long tail’ of ad volume on social platforms and whose margins are under incredible stress as inflation''' bites
* The decline in the latter half of 2022 also coincides with a period of unrest within the wider social media ad landscape.<ref>https://www.marketingweek.com/social-media-ad-spend-drops/</ref>

3. Digital ad revenue in the U.S. rose 10.8% to $209.7 billion last year as marketers continued to spend in online channels despite slower economic growth, market uncertainty and mass layoffs at big tech companies, according to a new report from the Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. But the increase was smaller than the 35% leap seen in 2021. <ref>https://www.wsj.com/articles/digital-ad-revenue-grew-again-in-2022-but-much-more-slowly-41485957</ref>

In addition to broader economic uncertainty, which led some companies to draw back on marketing budgets in the last part of 2022, the '''online ad business has been grappling with evolving privacy regulation and increased consumer privacy protections from companies such as Apple Inc., which some industry players say have made it harder to target messages and measure their efficacy.'''

Social media ad revenue grew 3.6% in 2022, a slowdown in growth from 39.3% a year earlier, according to the new IAB report, as privacy protections affected companies in the sector in particular. <blockquote>“Social media, of all the different kinds of [media] types that we looked at, was the most adversely affected in 2022” as a result of tech platform policies, Mr. Cohen said. </blockquote>

==== Public Companies ====

=== 2008-2009 Company Comparison ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Company
! colspan="2" |Revenue
! colspan="2" |EPS
! colspan="2" |Margin
!Comments 2009
|-
!
!2008
!2009
!2008
!2009
!2008
!2009
!
|-
|Alphabet
|
|
|
|
|
|
|To be updated here. Work in [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LW-eTnCNNbzEpsZEBrjQBcWBbNvqSvKK7VcEMuUEjqM/edit?gid=724201715#gid=724201715&range=A1 Google Sheets]
|-
|WPP<ref>https://www.wpp.com/-/media/project/wpp/files/imported-reports/2009/ar09_complete.pdf</ref>
|7,476.9
|8,684.3
|37.6p
|35.3p
|
|
|
* Pressure continued on the Group’s Advertising and Media Investment Management businesses, although the pressure seen by Media Investment Management in quarters two and three eased significantly in the final quarter.
* The pressure continued on the Group’s Advertising and Media Investment Management businesses, with '''clients continuing to seek greater and greater effectiveness and efficiencies, in markets where there is little inflation and, as a result, little pricing power and an over-supply of old and new media inventory.'''
* In constant currencies''', Advertising and Media Investment Management revenues fell by 8.6%, with like-for-like revenues down almost the same at 8.5%.''' Although cost actions were taken by the year end, the impact of revenue declines resulted in the combined annual operating margin of this sector falling by over 3.0 margin points.
|-
|Publicis<ref>https://www.publicisgroupe.com/sites/default/files/press-release/20100217_Annual_Results_2009_final.pdf</ref>
|4,704
|4,524
|2.12
|1.90
|16.7%
|15.0%
|
* As expected, after the advertising market reached its low point in 2009 during the summer, the decline, which had been gathering pace since mid-2008, began to slow, and then stopped. The fourth quarter brought an improvement, confirming the first signs of recovery.
* While the market overall was down by 12% to 14%, Publicis managed to limit the decrease to 6.5%, thereby gaining market share. Tight control over our costs and headcount; services with added value; these are some of the reasons why we were able to achieve an operating margin which remains one of the highest on the market despite the crisis.
|-
|Interpublic Group<ref>https://investors.interpublic.com/static-files/bcbb3af5-6514-4138-bc49-f67bd7800ae5</ref>
|$6,962.7
|$6,027.6
|$0.52
|$0.19
|8.5%
|5.7%
|
* Revenues were down 10.8% organically compared to the previous period. This was primarily due to the impact of the recession on marketers’ willingness to spend.
|}

=== 2008-2009 News and Commentary ===

# Us total measured advertising expenditures fell 12.3% in 2009 from 2008 levels, to $125.3 billion, according to data released by Kantar Media<ref>https://techcrunch.com/2010/03/17/advertising-expenditures-2009/</ref>

[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 192603.png|alt=|center|thumb|511x511px|https://techcrunch.com/2010/03/17/advertising-expenditures-2009/]]
2. U.S. ad spending declined nine percent in 2009, according to preliminary figures released today by The Nielsen Company. Spending fell an estimated $11.6 billion to a total of $117 billion last year. The figures continue a trend of at least six straight quarters of negative growth in the ad industry<ref>https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf</ref>

There was some notable activity among product categories outside the top 10. Investment Services not only saw ad spending fall 14% to $1.3 billion in 2009, but the category also had about 1000 fewer advertisers in 2009 compared to 2008. On the other hand, spending by web-based advertisers climbed 32% to $1.1 billion, paced by dramatic spending increases by Hulu and Bing.<blockquote>“Fourth quarter ad spending was down just two percent year-over-year, and that helped soften the full-year decline,” said Terrie Brennan, senior VP for new business development at The Nielsen Company. “In fact, most of the top advertisers showed increased spending late in the year. These are encouraging signs for an ad market that’s still trying to stop the bleeding.”</blockquote>
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 193459.png|center|thumb|553x553px|https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 193508.png|center|thumb|602x602px|https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf]]

== References ==

Advertising Industry

2025-01-13T20:54:35Z

MagaNH6:

[[Industries|Industries Overview]]

[[Advertising Industry: Search]]

[[Advertising Industry: Social Media]]

Forum Topic: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/advertising-markets/92

== Methodology ==
Short description methodolgy

==== Data Sources ====

* Magna
* Zenith
* Tiniuti
* Dentsu
* S4

== Developments ==

=== Tinuiti ===

==== Q4 2023 ====
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth<ref name=":1" />
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0" />
|-
|Meta
|13%
| -3%
|16%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|8%
| -5%
|14%
|-
|''Instagram''
|27%
| 2%
|24%
|-
|TikTok
|64%
| 14%
|44%
|-
|Google
|17%
|9%
|8%
|-
|Amazon
|17%
|19%
| -2%
|-
|Walmart
|62%
| 34%
|21%
|}
==== Q3 2023 ====
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth<ref name=":1">https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dZ1kFgBmP-B16_EBlikJUSciXDfGmEa2/view</ref>
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0" />
|-
|Meta
|19%
| -19%
|46%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|16%
| -20
|46%
|-
|''Instagram''
|25%
| -11%
|41%
|-
|TikTok
|12%
| -8%
|21%
|-
|Google
|13%
|4%
|8%
|-
|Amazon
|14%
|8%
|5%
|-
|Walmart
|55%
| 33%
|17%
|}
==== Q2 2023 ====
Most of the major digital ad platforms saw an acceleration in spending growth in Q2 2023, with Instagram leading the way with a 16-point improvement in growth compared to a quarter earlier.<ref>https://drive.google.com/file/d/1soM8MQV1aQD8pQxkM225AR714JtniPzb/view</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0">https://drive.google.com/file/d/1soM8MQV1aQD8pQxkM225AR714JtniPzb/view</ref>
|-
|Meta
|9%
| -25%
|44%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|''2%''
| ''-25%''
|''37%''
|-
|''Instagram''
|''31%''
| ''-29%''
|''84%''
|-
|TikTok
|11%
| -4%
|16%
|-
|Google
|11%
|0%
|11%
|-
|Amazon
|8%
|3%
|5%
|-
|Walmart
|39%
| -4%
|45%
|}
'''Meta Platforms'''

* Meta ad spend rose 9% year-over-year versus a flat growth rate in Q1 2023.
* Meta impressions rose 44% year-over-year(Q1 2023:+42%), helped by Reels.
* Meta Platforms CPM fell 25% year-over-year(Q1 2023:-30%).

'''Facebook'''

* Facebook ad spend rose 2% year-over-year, the first positive growth in the last four quarters(Q1 2023:-4%)
* Facebook CPM declined 25% year over year(Q1 2023: -32%)
* Facebook impression rose 37%(Q1 2023: 42%)

'''Instagram'''

* Instagram impression rose 84% year-over-year(Q1 2023: 45%)
* Ad spend growth on Instagram more than doubled to 31% year-over-year from 15% in Q1 2023, aided by Instagram Reels and Explore Grid Home placements.
* Instagram CPM declined 29% year-over-year(Q1 2023: -20%).
* Instagram Reels CPC was 13% lower than that of Instagram Feeds, compared to 19% in Q1 2023.

'''TikTok'''

* Tik tok as spend rose to 11%
* TikTok CPM declined 4% year-over-year(Q1 2023:+44%).
* TikTok impression rose 16% in Q2 from a 13% decline in Q1.

== Advertising Forecast ==

=== Disclaimers ===
Do advertising agencies like Magna and Zenith have a positive bias?
=== Magna Forecast ===

==== December 2024 ====
'''Total Market Overview'''

* '''Global Ad Revenue:''' In 2024, media owners' ad revenues reached '''$933 billion''', growing by '''+10.3%''', marking the strongest growth in 25 years (excluding post-COVID recovery in 2021).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/</ref>
* '''Digital Pure Players (DPP):''' Ad sales increased by '''+13%''' to $659 billion, driven by '''Search/Commerce (+12%)''', '''Short-Form Video (+12%)''', and '''Social Media (+18%)'''.
* '''Traditional Media Owners (TMO):''' Revenues grew '''+4%''' to $274 billion, the best performance since 2010, driven by cyclical events (e.g., US elections, Summer Olympics) and '''+12% growth in non-linear ad sales (e.g., ad-supported streaming)'''.
* '''Regional Performance:''' Dynamic markets included the US and France (+12%), India and the UK (+11%), and Brazil (+14%). Growth was slower in China (+7%) and Germany (+6%).
* '''Key Verticals:''' Automotive, Finance, and CPG/FMCG were among the fastest-growing industries, while Travel showed signs of slowing.

'''Digital Advertising (DPP)'''

* '''Drivers:'''
** Growth fueled by ecommerce competition (e.g., Temu and Shein targeting Europe).
** The rise of retail media networks, which now account for $144 billion.
** Improved monetization of short-form vertical videos on social platforms like Instagram and YouTube.
** Ad-supported Streaming Boosts Long-Form Video
** AI-powered algorithms enhancing ad placement and effectiveness.
* '''2025 Forecast:''' DPP ad sales are expected to grow by '''+9.4%''' to reach '''$721 billion''', with strong contributions from '''Retail Search (+13%)''' and '''Social Media (+13%)'''

'''Market Leaders'''

* '''The Big Three (Google, Meta, Amazon):'''
** Combined ad revenues grew '''+11% (Google)''', '''+22% (Meta)''', and '''+21% (Amazon)''', increasing their market share to '''51% globally''' and '''61% outside China'''.
** Benefited from innovations like short-form video monetization and ecommerce-driven advertising.

'''2025 Outlook'''

* '''Global Ad Revenue:''' Forecast to grow by '''+6.1%''' to $990 billion, driven by '''DPP (+9%)''', while TMO revenues are expected to decline by '''-2%''' due to a lack of major cyclical events.
* '''Key Trends:'''
** Stabilization of the European economy may boost ad spending in key markets like Germany and the UK.
** CPI inflation is slowing to '''+2%-3%''', enhancing consumer purchasing power and ad spending.
** Organic growth drivers, including AI and ecommerce, will continue to support digital ad growth.

[[File:Screenshot 2025-01-13 095407.png|center|thumb|780x780px|https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/]]
[[File:Screenshot 2025-01-13 095429.png|center|thumb|771x771px|https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/]]

==== September 2024 ====
<nowiki>**</nowiki> US only Update

Based on MAGNA’s analysis of media companies’ financial reports, '''total US ad revenues grew by +11.0% year-over-year in the second quarter. That was in line with first quarter, and in line with – slightly stronger – than MAGNA’s projection''' (+10.4%).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/political-and-olympic-advertising-boost-strong-us-ad-market/</ref>

* '''Digital pure players ad sales, rose by approx. +16% YOY''', as both Meta and Google credited new AI tools – optimizing content creation or insertion – as driving incremental spending from brands. The Big Three (Meta, Google, Amazon) reported YOY ad sales growth rates ranging +15% to +18% for the quarter.

'''MAGNA is increasing its forecast for second half, non-cyclical ad spend growth to +7.4% (previously: +6.4%).''' The half-year YOY growth rate was always expected to slow down in the second half of 2024 due to very imbalanced comps in 2023 (weak first half, strong second half).

* '''For the full-year 2024 MAGNA is now expecting advertising revenues to grow by +11.4% to $377bn (+8.9% excluding cyclical).''' +8.9% would be the strongest non-cyclical growth rate in more than twenty years, if excluding the post-COVID recovery in 2021.
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-21 101530.png|center|thumb|748x748px|https://magnaglobal.com/political-and-olympic-advertising-boost-strong-us-ad-market/]]

==== June 2024 ====
MAGNA is raising its 2024 growth forecast following a '''stronger-than-expected ad market in the first quarter (+12%)''' and an improvement in the economic outlook (real GDP growth +3.2%, US +2.5%).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/</ref>

* MAGNA’s “Global Ad Forecast” predicts media owners net advertising revenues (NAR) will reach $927 billion this year, growing +10.0% over 2023. This is a significant acceleration on the global growth recorded in 2023 (+6.4%). Neutralizing the impact of cyclical events in 2023 and 2024, the normalized acceleration is still real but more modest: non-cyclical ad revenues grew by +7.5% in 2023 and will grow by +8.7% in 2024.

* 1Q24 was an even stronger than expected. Year-over-Year growth average +12% in key markets, +17% in Spain, +15% in France, and Germany. Quarterly growth rates will gradually slow as comps become tougher in the second half, but this strong start of the year, coupled with a stronger economic outlook led us to raise the full year 2024 forecast for almost every individual market monitor, bringing the expected global growth from +6.4% in December, to +10% now. The full-year ad revenues of traditional media owners are now forecast to grow by +3% instead of +2%, and the ad sales of digital pure players are now expected to grow by +13% (previously +9.4%).
* '''In the first quarter of 2024, the leading global digital vendors reported the strongest growth rates in more than two years.''' Based on MAGNA’s analysis of financial report, global Search ad sales grew by +16% year-over-year, pure-play video by +21% and Social Media by +28% year-over-year. Quarterly growth rates are bound to slow down as comps will gradually get tougher, but MAGNA anticipates double-digit growth for all key digital formats and vendors this year.
* Full-year 2023, Google, Meta, and Amazon organic ad revenues increased by +6%, +16% and +24% respectively. '''The big three now attract a combined 60% of total advertising revenues outside China''' ($417 billion out of $698 billion), up from 57% in 2021-2022. Including China – where they don’t operate – they control 49% of global ad sales.
* US Media owners advertising revenues are forecast to reach an all-time high of $374 billion this year, growing +10.7% over 2023. This is 1.5 percentage points above our previous full-year forecast (+9.2% in our March 2024 update), following a stronger-than-expected start of the year (+12% in the first quarter) and an improvement in the macro-economic outlook – with the latest GDP growth forecasts raised to a robust +2.5%. The macro-economic factor offsets slightly lower cyclical expectations, as our political advertising forecast is reduced following by weaker-than-expected fundraising in the first few months of the year. We still expect the 2024 election campaigns to generate $9 billion dollars of incremental advertising revenues for US media owners this year, an increase of +10% vs 2020.
* The US remains the largest and most intense ad market in the world with advertisers spending $1,100 per consumer in 2024; it’s 8 times more than the global average ($160), ten times more than China ($110) and a hundred times more than India ($10). 

'''Global Forecasts'''
[[File:Table-3-Global-Ad-Forecast-for-2024.png|center|thumb|683x683px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/]]
'''US Forecasts'''
[[File:Table-1-US-Ad-Forecast.png|center|thumb|722x722px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/]]

==== March 2024 ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101337.png|center|thumb|738x738px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101001.png|center|thumb|734x734px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]

Based on MAGNA’s analysis of media companies’ financials''',''' '''non-cyclical advertising revenues grew by +9.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023''' e., the strongest quarterly growth in almost two years, bringing full-year 2023 ad market growth to +5.7%.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/digital-momentum-leads-ad-market-forecast-to-9/</ref>

Because of an improving macro-economic outlook, the momentum of digital media and streaming, and the impact of cyclical events, '''MAGNA anticipates more growth in 2024''': '''total media owners ad revenues will increase by +9.2% to reach $369 billion'''. That’s nearly one percentage point above the previous forecast (+8.4% in Dec. 2023).

'''Advertising spend around major cyclical events will drive approx. $10 billion of incremental ad sales as the 2024 election cycle will generate $9 billion''' of additional ad revenue for media owners (+13% vs the 2020 cycle). '''This will add 2.5 percentage points to the non-cyclical growth rate''', bringing total revenue growth from +6.7% (non-cyclical ad sales) to +9.2% (total ad sales). The impact will be even greater for some media categories like Local TV (excluding political -4%, including political +26%).

* Digital pure players (DPP) dominating Search, Retail, Social and Short-Form Video formats will once again capture most of the growth, with '''DPP ad sales growing by +11.7% to $260 billion''' (previous forecast +10.5%).
* '''Short form, pure player digital video''' ad sales (primarily YouTube and Twitch), will grow by +12% this year to reach $22 billion.
* '''Social media sales will feel the wind at their back and will rise +14% to $81 billion.''' Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming an increasingly important tool used by advertisers to set up, run, and optimize their social media campaigns. MAGNA looks for this to drive additional sales in 2024, especially for small businesses setting up their first campaigns.
* '''Search/Retail ad sales will increase by nearly +12% to $146 billion in 2024''' and will also benefit from increasing AI functionality in helping brands set up and run new advertising campaigns.
* '''Audio ad sales''' (terrestrial and satellite radio, audio streaming, and podcasting) will be stable at around $16 billion in 2024. Digital audio usage and ad sales continue to develop but growth rates are maturing (+6%), which means it barely offsets the erosion of linear radio (-3%)
* '''Long-Form Streaming advertising will expand by +13% to reach $10 billion milestone.'''

[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101835.png|center|thumb|745x745px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 102009.png|center|thumb|750x750px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]

==== December 2023 ====

[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-03 162449.png|center|thumb|722x722px|https://magnaglobal.com/digital-advertising-reaccelerated-in-2023-major-events-will-fuel-traditional-media-in-2024/]]

MAGNA’s “Global Ad Forecast” predicts that global media owners '''net advertising revenues (NAR) will reach $853 billion this year, +5.5%''' above the 2022 level, and will grow by +7.2% in 2024.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/digital-advertising-reaccelerated-in-2023-major-events-will-fuel-traditional-media-in-2024/</ref>

* Advertising spending accelerated and grew by +6.3% yoy in the second half of 2023 following a weaker first half (+4.7%) to average +5.5 growth full year.
* '''Digital Pure-Play media owners (DPP) ad revenue g'''rew by +10.5% to $587bn (69% of total ad sales). DPP ad sales are driven by organic growth factors incl. the rise of ecommerce, retail media
* The US market grew +3.6% to $338 billion this year (National TV -6%, Local TV -22%, Audio -4%, Publishing -7%, OOH +2%, Search +10%, Social +14%). Non-cyclical ad revenue is up +5.4% in 2023 and will accelerate to +5.9% in 2024 (+8.4% including cyclical ad spend – including almost $10 billion in political spending).
* In 2024, economic stabilization, lower inflation, digital innovation, and the return of major cyclical events (elections, international sports events) will drive ad spend +7.2% to $914 billion, +8.4% in the US. TMO ad revenues will recover by +2.2% while digital pure players ad sales will increase by +9.4%.
* After stagnating for several quarters, the global advertising sales of Google, Meta and Alibaba re-accelerated since 2Q23 to reach a year-to-date 1Q-3Q growth of +4%, +13% and +5% respectively.
* These three media owners account for a combined 49% of global advertising revenues. Outside China, the top three vendors are Google, Meta, and Amazon, capturing 80% to 90% of digital ad spend and 56% of ''total'' ad spend (the market share being lower for national consumer brands higher for small, local, direct advertisers).

==== September 2023 ====
'''''Focused on US only'''''

'''Total advertising spending re-accelerated in the second quarter of 2023. Sales were up +4.4% year-over-year, following two quarters of stagnation'''.However, only pure-play digital media vendors (Search, Social, Video) really benefited (+8.7% in 2Q23), while traditional media companies continued to struggle (-4.1% in 2Q23).The recovery in ad spend in 2Q23 was caused by a general improvement in the economy, and easier yoy comps<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-forecast-fall-2023/</ref>
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-25 104318.png|center|thumb|765x765px|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-forecast-fall-2023/]]

* As the US economy and advertising spending were both stronger than expected so far this year, and digital media is finally recovering from its 2022 woes, '''MAGNA raises its full-year ad revenue growth forecast to +5.2% for 2023 to reach $337 billion'''
* With the economic outlook improving and yoy comps becoming even easier, MAGNA maintains its growth forecast for the second half of the year. '''Total ad spend will grow by +7% to +8% in 3Q23 and 4Q23 (compared to +2.9% in first half) to bring full year growth to +5.2% (excluding cyclical), up from +4.2% in our previous update (June 2023).'''

* Around the average advertising spending growth of +4.4% in 2Q23, MAGNA observed a strong dynamic from Travel, Pharma and Retail brands, and – more surprisingly – CPG (food, drinks, personal care). The slowdown of inflation in recent months may explain this recovery in CPG brand business and marketing spending, after a difficult year 2022 when high inflation hurt the sales of premium brands.
* Looking at individual media types, digital media formats will outperform again in the next 18 months, growing by high-single digits or low double-digits. Social media formats and short-form digital video formats are finally recovering from the headwinds and disruptions that hurt ad sales in 2022, brought on by the modifications to privacy settings in the Apple environment and the rapid rise of short vertical video snacking.

==== June 2023 ====
'''Advertising spending slowed down to a halt in the first quarter of 2023 (+1.5% globally, flat in most Western markets) due to economic uncertainty and the lack of cyclical drivers.''' There are, however, some drivers mitigating the impact of economic slowdown: Ecommerce and Retail Media bringing more marketing dollars into digital advertising formats, and the counter-cyclical dynamic of some large industry verticals (Retail, Auto, Travel).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-market-june-2023-update/</ref>
[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-14 112834.png|center|thumb|683x683px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-market-june-2023-update/]]

* Magna predicts media owners advertising revenues will reach '''$842 billion this year, +4.6% growth vs. 2022 ($805bn). Deterioration of economic conditions and marketing spending in most Western markets is mitigated by stronger-than-expected growth in some markets (China, Spain), industry verticals (Retail) and media types (Retail, Social).'''
* Traditional media companies and branding formats (Television, Audio, Publishing, OOH, Cinema) are most exposed in this uncertain business climate, as some brands reduce marketing budget or prioritize performance-based digital ad formats.
* '''Digital pure-play advertising sales will grow by +8.5% to reach $577 billion dollars i.e., 69% of total ad sales''', driven by organic growth factors (ecommerce, retail media, media consumption shifts, stabilization in the data landscape).
* The strongest ad growth rate this year will come once again from India (+12.3% to $12.6bn); India is the 11th largest market. The Chinese ad market is set to recover faster than previously expected (+8.4%). At the other end of the spectrum, most Western European markets will stagnate this year: Germany, France, Italy all below +3% growth all-media, and negative for traditional media owners.
* In 2024, economic stabilization and the return of major cyclical events (US presidential elections, Paris Olympics, Euro Football championship) will re-accelerate ad spend: +6.1% to $892 billion globally, +7.3% in the US. Traditional media owners’ ad revenues will recover by +1% while digital pure players ad sales will increase by +8%.
* Social media formats will re-accelerate by +9.4% this year reach to $172 billion. The industry seems to have turned a corner in 1Q23 when Meta reported a return to YOY growth on an FX-adjusted basis after two consecutive quarters of flat or negative growth. '''Meta and other established social media vendors seem to have finally recovered from the loss of workable consumer data in the Apple ecosystem since late 2021, and they are making inroads in the monetization of the short vertical videos that have completely changed the user experience, challenging ad optimization, in less than two years.'''
* '''North America and European markets will underperform this year''' (ad market growth of +2.5% and +4.2% resp.), due to weaker economic activity (+1.6% and +0.8% real GDP growth, resp), mature media/marketing landscapes, and a lack of major cyclical driver compared to 2022. APAC (+7.1%) and Latin America (+8.7%) will grow significantly faster.

==== March 2023 ====
'''US update'''[[File:Advertising2.PNG|thumb|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/|alt=|center|571x571px]]In its new 2023 scenario, MAGNA expects little or no growth in the first half (+2% in 1Q23, +4% in 2Q23) against tough quarterly comps, followed by a recovery in the second half (+6% to +7%), as the economy solidifies, and advertising comps become much easier. Overall, full-year advertising revenues will grow by +3.4% this year to reach $326 billion (incl. CE).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/</ref>

* Search and e-commerce advertising formats (Google, Amazon, retail media networks) will continue to be driven by the expansion of e-commerce to CPG and grow by +10% (slowing down from +14% in 2022) to remain the largest advertising format ($125bn in 2023)
* Social media formats (Facebook, Instagram, Tiktok …) will re-accelerate +6% to $66bn after stalling in 2022 (+2%) due to headwinds including audience maturity and the data targeting limitations established in 2021.
* Cross-platform audio ad sales will stabilize at around $17 billion this year. Linear radio ad formats will drop -4%, while digital audio formats (audio streaming, podcasting) will rise +9%. Podcasting will help drive digital audio growth, and grow +16%, though this represents a slowdown compared to MAGNA’s previous forecast of +22%
''Magna is using the assumption of Real GDP growth of +1.3% in 2023.''

=== Grupo M ===

==== December 2024 ====
'''Key Findings:'''<ref>https://www.groupm.com/newsroom/groupms-end-of-year-global-advertising-forecast-projects-9-5-growth-in-total-2024-advertising-revenue/?utm_source=chatgpt.com</ref><ref>https://www.groupm.com/this-year-next-year-2024-global-end-of-year-forecast/</ref>

* '''Global Growth:''' Global advertising revenue is projected to grow 9.5% in 2024, reaching over $1 trillion for the first time (excluding U.S. political ads). A further 7.7% increase is expected in 2025, pushing total revenue to $1.1 trillion.
* '''Digital Dominance:''' Pure-play digital advertising remains the primary growth driver, with a projected 12.4% increase in 2024. Digital is expected to constitute 72.9% of total ad spend by 2025.
* '''Retail Media Expansion:''' Retail media is a key growth area, forecasted to hit $177.1 billion globally in 2025, surpassing TV revenue (including streaming) for the first time.
* '''Out-of-Home (OOH):''' OOH advertising has maintained its share, with digital OOH (DOOH) driving growth, projected to contribute 42% of total OOH revenue by 2025.
* '''Other Channels:'''
** Global audio revenue is expected to remain flat in 2025.
** Print advertising continues to decline due to digitization and AI disruptions.

'''Market Insights:'''

* '''Top Markets Growth:''' All top ten advertising markets are projected to grow in 2024:
** '''U.S.:''' 9.0% growth to $400.2 billion.
** '''China:''' 13.5% growth to $204.5 billion.
** '''Other Key Markets:''' UK, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, Brazil, India, and Australia

=== Dentsu Forecast ===

==== December 2024 ====
Dentsu's Global Ad Spend Forecasts project a 6.8% year-over-year increase in global advertising spend for 2024, reaching $772.4 billion. Growth is expected to continue at 5.9% in 2025, outpacing the global economy by 2.7 percentage points. Key drivers include the resurgence of digital ad spend, major sporting and political events, and stronger economic conditions in the US, UK, Brazil, and France.<ref>https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/global-ad-spend-forecasts-2025</ref><ref>https://info.dentsu.com/TheYearofImpact_2025MediaTrends</ref>

'''Regional Insights:'''

* '''Americas:''' Expected 6.3% growth in 2025, driven by the US and Brazil, with strong digital and streaming investments.
* '''Asia-Pacific:''' Projected 5.8% growth, with AI-driven ad placements boosting digital ad spend, particularly in India.
* '''EMEA:''' Forecasted to grow by 5.0%, led by digital expansion in the UK.

'''Media Channel Trends:'''

* '''Digital:''' Forecasted to grow by 9.2% in 2025, reaching $513 billion and representing 62.7% of global ad spend. Retail media (+21.9%) and paid social (+8.7%) will drive growth, with paid search increasing by 6.7%.
* '''Programmatic Advertising:''' Expected to grow by 11.1% and represent over 70% of digital ad spend by 2027.
* '''Television:''' Marginal growth of 0.6%, with connected TV surging (+18.4%) while traditional broadcast TV declines (-2.5%).
* '''Other Media:''' Print continues to decline, while cinema and out-of-home (OOH) advertising show moderate growth (+3.2% and +3.9%).

'''Key Sectors:'''

* Finance (+6.4%), pharmaceuticals (+5.8%), and travel and transport (+5.5%) are set to see significant ad spend increases, adapting to changing consumer demands.

'''Strategic Insights:''' Dentsu emphasizes the rise of the "algorithmic era," where data-driven, algorithmically enabled ad spend will shape media strategies, reaching 79% of total ad spend by 2027. This shift will continue reshaping how brands engage with consumers, especially in digital-first environments.

Key Trends in the Digital and Social Ad Market:

# '''AI-Powered Media Planning:'''
#* AI is becoming a central tool for media strategy, with platforms like Meta's Advantage+ and Google's Performance Max leading the charge. These tools use AI to automate targeting, creative optimization, and campaign management, improving efficiency and performance.
#* AI helps brands generate predictive insights, dynamic scenario planning, and real-time optimizations across multiple channels.
# '''Algorithm-Driven Advertising:'''
#* The media landscape is evolving into an "algorithmic era" where platforms optimize content and ads based on performance data rather than direct audience engagement.
#* Brands need to adjust strategies to work within these algorithmic systems, focusing on content optimization and automation for targeting diverse audience segments.
# '''Rise of Retail Media Networks:'''
#* Retailers are transforming into major digital ad players, leveraging their first-party shopper data for targeted advertising. Amazon, Walmart, and CVS are among those expanding their ad services.
#* Walmart's acquisition of Vizio offers new data streams and inventory, pushing towards fully shoppable TV experiences.
# '''Connected Television (CTV) and Streaming Ads:'''
#* CTV is scaling rapidly, with platforms like Netflix, Prime Video, and Disney+ enhancing their ad-supported models. Prime Video alone has over 200 million viewers available for campaigns.
#* This expansion is driving ad inventory growth, potentially decreasing CPM rates but increasing competition for premium ad placements.
# '''Micro-Moments and Personalized Engagement:'''
#* AI-driven micro-moments, where brands engage with consumers in personalized, one-to-one interactions, are becoming essential. Social platforms curate content feeds based on user behavior, reducing the need for clicks but increasing the demand for in-feed ads.
#* Business messaging platforms like WhatsApp and WeChat are also being used for direct brand-to-consumer interactions, enhancing personalization.
# '''Creator Economy and Niche Targeting:'''
#* Investment in short-form video, influencer marketing, and live content is rising, with platforms like TikTok and YouTube leading in creator monetization.
#* Brands are increasingly leveraging niche communities and influencers for authentic audience connections, recognizing the power of smaller, highly engaged groups.

==== June 2024 ====

* Global advertising spend is now forecast to grow by 5.0% in 2024 (vs. 3.3% in 2023) to reach $754.4 billion, as spend prospects improve in the UK, Germany, US, Japan, and France.<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/AdSpendMay2024</ref>
* Digital is beating previous growth expectations and is now predicted to increase by 7.4% to capture 59.6% of global spend in 2024, with double-digit growth for retail media and paid social.
* Substantial ad spend increases are forecast for retail media (+32.0% YOY, 17.7% three-year CAGR to 2026), paid social (+13.7% YOY), and programmatic (+10.9% YOY), while paid search (+7.7% YOY) and online video (+6.7% YOY) are set to maintain strong growth.
* The US presidential election alone is forecast to account for about a third ($11 billion) of the incremental ad spend in 2024.
* In the top 12 markets,** inflation-adjusted growth is projected at 2.6% in 2024 (vs. 5.2% at current prices), as media inflation shows signs of coming down but remains high, especially for TV and sought-after digital video formats such as social video.

[[File:Ad Spend Per Medium 2022-2026.png|center|thumb|712x712px|https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/ad-spend-growth-tracks-ahead-of-the-economy#:~:text=Ad%20spend%20growth%20tracks%20ahead,forecasts%20to%205.0%25%20for%202024&text=Global%20advertising%20spend%20is%20now,US%2C%20Japan%2C%20and%20France.]]
[[File:Ad Spend Per Region 2022-2026.png|center|thumb|732x732px|https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/ad-spend-growth-tracks-ahead-of-the-economy#:~:text=Ad%20spend%20growth%20tracks%20ahead,forecasts%20to%205.0%25%20for%202024&text=Global%20advertising%20spend%20is%20now,US%2C%20Japan%2C%20and%20France.]]

===== December 2023 =====
[[File:Share of global spend by channel.jpg|center|thumb|747x747px|https://info.dentsu.com/dentsuGlobalAdSpendForecasts_December2023]]

Latest forecast, covering 58 markets across the globe, is that '''advertising spend will expand by $33.0 billion in 2024 to reach $752.8 billion. This represents a 4.6% growth year-over-year for the ad industry – much faster than the pace seen in 2023 (+2.7% vs. 2022).'''<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/dentsuGlobalAdSpendForecasts_December2023</ref>

* Whilst the first quarter will be the slowest of the year (4.2%), growth is forecast to accelerate in the second quarter (4.9%) before peaking during the third (5.5%), supported by major sports events
* Global advertising spend at constant prices actually decreased by 0.7% in 2023.
* In 2024, advertising spend is forecast to represent, on average, 0.75% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the countries we track, which is consistent with the average annual ad spend/GDP indicator observed in the last 20 years (0.70%).
* In 2024, advertisers will spend, on average, $139 per capita across the world. It is about 75% more than what they spent 20 years ago ($80).
* Digital is expected to follow an upward trajectory to reach $442.6 billion in 2024, representing 58.8% of global advertising spend. Total display spend (including social and digital video) has grown by 6.4% in 2023to reach $220.7 billion. It is forecast to grow by 6.9% in 2024, and by a 6.5% three-year CAGR to 2026.
* In the digital space, retail media investments will accelerate the fastest with a 17.2% three-year CAGR, followed by paid social investments (12.3% three-year CAGR), especially in Asia-Pacific (21.0% three-year CAGR). Programmatic channels, that already account for more than 70% of digital ad spend, are also expected to continue growing by doubledigits (10.2% three-year CAGR).

==== May 2023 ====
“The adjusted for 2023 points to continued growth, albeit adjusted marginally downwards from the 3.5% predicted in the December 2022 report, in the most part due to macroeconomic factors. Exploring behind the headlines, the report also shows '''growth driven by media price inflation rather than increased advertising volume, where advertising spend at constant prices is expected to decline slightly, with –0.6% reduction year on year”'''<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/ad-spend-may-2023-pdf</ref>

* Global advertising spend expected to grow by '''3.3% in 2023 with inflation driving increase to reach US$727.9 billion'''
* Stronger growth ahead, with 2024 global advertising market now expected to increase by 4.7%, to reach US$762.5 billion, with a further 3.8% growth into 2025
* Digital is projected to settle into almost consistent incremental growth for three years, to account for around $3 in every $5 spent in advertising worldwide.
* '''Social spend is forecast to grow by a 12.8% three-year CAGR''', driven by new platforms, social commerce, and the popularity of short-form video content across platforms such as TikTok and Instagram Reels
* '''Programmatic is expected to grow at a 11.0% three-year CAGR to reach a forecast 76% share of digital spend in 2025''', a year-by-year analysis reveals its growth will slow (14.4% in 2023, 9.2% in 2024, 9.5% in 2025).
* Traditional radio is projected to decrease by 0.1% in 2023 whilst '''online radio growth is forecast at 3.6%.'''

=== Zenith Forecast ===

==== December 2023 ====
Zenith’s latest ''Advertising Expenditure Forecasts'' reports continued resilience and forecasts 5.3% global advertising growth for 2023, which is above initial expectations given a healthier than expected Q3 for major digital advertisers.<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-forecasts-4-8-growth-for-2024-marking-continued-adspend-acceleration-into-2025-and-beyond/</ref>

* '''Global adspend growth is expected at 4.8% in 2024,''' excluding U.S. political spending*, aided by events such as the Olympics as well as a combination of continued advertiser spending in support of their brands and the positive impact of Chinese brands fueling growth.
* The Americas are expected to continue as the fastest-growing region with 5.7% advertising growth in 2024. Europe continues to contribute meaningful growth (4.5%) due in part to online spending, while Asia-Pac (3.8%) remains impacted by China’s slower-than-expected recovery.
* Adspend momentum remains steadily on an upward trajectory in large part due to the strong adoption of online propositions such as retail media and social media. Online continues to lead as the fastest-growing category, accounting for 59% of overall spending in 2024 and expected to increase to 61% in 2026, with a CAGR of 4.6%.

==== June 2022 ====

* The global advertising market will continue to maintain its resilience and Zenith '''forecasts a 4.4% growth in global advertising expenditure for 2023'''<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-reports-a-consistent-global-ad-market-with-4-4-growth/</ref>
* Global adspend growth is expected to accelerate '''6.9% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025''' to account for nearly $1 trillion in advertising spending in 2025.
* '''North America''' is expected to continue to provide the biggest contribution to advertising growth between 2023 and 2025 with adspend growing US $53 billion – representing 41% of total adspend during the period. A healthy growth of '''4.3% is expected in 2023 and Zenith forecasts advertising expenditure will then jump to 9.8% in 2024 thanks to the Presidential election and the Olympics.'''
* '''Online, including Retail Media, Search and Social Media''', will continue to lead as the fastest-growing category, constituting 57% of overall adspend in 2023. Zenith forecasts an increase to 59% in '''2025, with a compounded annual growth rate of 6.8%.''' Retail Media will drive the category growth, with an estimated annual global spend of $129 billion in 2025 and an expected compounded annual growth rate of 11.5% from 2022 to 2025.
* Zenith forecasts a compounded growth rate of '''25% between 2022 and 2025 within the Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) space.'''

==== December 2022 ====
According to Zenith, the advertising industry is expected to maintain its resilience in 2023 despite current economic challenges, driven by the growth of new channels such as retail media and advertising on [https://www.appsflyer.com/glossary/svod/ Subscription Video on Demand] (SVOD) services. '''They anticipate a 4.5% growth in ad spending. Furthermore, global ad spending growth is expected to pick up pace to 7.2% in 2024''', driven by major events like the US Presidential elections and the Olympics.<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-forecasts-4-5-growth-for-2023-after-7-3-uplift-in-2022-marking-continued-healthy-growth/#:~:text=Zenith%20estimates%20that%20advertising%20on,are%20likely%20to%20follow%20suit</ref>

Online advertising, specifically Search and Social Media, is expected to continue as the fastest-growing category, making up 55% of overall ad spending in 2022 and projected to increase to 57% by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 7%.
*

*

== Advertising behavior during a recession ==
Looking back at the 3 last recessions<ref>https://www.statista.com/statistics/272443/growth-of-advertising-spending-worldwide/</ref>, it is clear ad budgets get cut during economic contractions, but the magnitude of the decline can vary depending on the severity of the recession, the specific industries and companies involved, and their advertising strategy.

Important to note that the advertising industry could recover quickly after crises, often reaching or even exceeding prior spending levels within one to two years post-economic downturn.

* COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a 3.7 percent decrease in ad spending in 2020 compared to 2019.
* During the Great Financial Crisis, advertising spending experienced a decrease of 9.5% in 2009
* During the Dot Com crisis, advertising spending saw a decrease of 4.04% in 2001
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Year'''
|'''Ad spending in million U.S. dollars'''
|'''Growth Rate'''
|-
|2024*
|884,999
|7.57%
|-
|2023*
|822,756
|5.36%
|-
|2022*
|780,870
|8.03%
|-
|2021
|722,843
|16.00%
|-
|2020
|623,116
| -3.70%
|-
|2019
|647,035
|5.43%
|-
|2018
|613,721
|6.80%
|-
|2017
|574,640
|6.08%
|-
|2016
|541,698
|5.53%
|-
|2015
|513,304
|4.60%
|-
|2014
|490,713
|5.61%
|-
|2013
|464,668
|4.87%
|-
|2012
|443,077
|4.34%
|-
|2011
|424,666
|3.92%
|-
|2010
|408,663
|7.82%
|-
|2009
|379,036
| -9.50%
|-
|2008
|418,828
| -0.12%
|-
|2007
|419,319
|5.60%
|-
|2006
|397,088
|6.56%
|-
|2005
|372,646
|5.22%
|-
|2004
|354,171
|6.61%
|-
|2003
|332,198
|3.01%
|-
|2002
|322,505
|0.10%
|-
|2001
|322,182
| -4.04%
|-
|2000
|335,733
|
|}

=== 2022 Developments ===

==== Magna ====
[[File:US-Ad-Forecast-March-2023-Option-2-768x570.png|center|thumb|580x580px|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/]]
'''Social media''' formats (Facebook, Instagram, Tiktok …) will re-accelerate +6% to $66bn after stalling in 2022 (+2%) due to headwinds including audience maturity and the data targeting limitations established in 2021.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/</ref>

==== News ====

# After years of social media being one of the most powerful engines of digital ad spending growth, 2022 saw the first meaningful decline in social’s share of digital ad spending since Insider Intelligence began tracking it in 2008. This was, in part, due to the rise of retail media and connected TV (CTV), plus a radical slowdown in growth caused by ATT.<ref>https://www.insiderintelligence.com/insights/social-media-paid-ads/</ref>

Previously expected $33.98 billion in social network video ad spending by 2022, and that figure has now been slashed to $29.82 billion—a difference of more than $4 billion. These staggering reductions are the result of a perfect storm starting in 2021—with '''Apple’s rollout of its AppTrackingTransparency framework, followed by a downturn in the global economy due to persistent inflation, soaring interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and the Russia-Ukraine war.'''
[[File:Screenshot 2024-02-07 111654.png|center|thumb|547x547px]]2. Over the full year, UK social media spend, which is a sub-category of the online display section in the report, increased by 4.9%. The overall category grew at 10% in 2022 and is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2023. Total ad spend grew 8.8% in 2022.

* Sharp and sustained falls in social media spend – the first time this has been recorded in the UK – are likely to have been instigated by r'''educed advertising activity among the SMEs who comprise a ‘long tail’ of ad volume on social platforms and whose margins are under incredible stress as inflation''' bites
* The decline in the latter half of 2022 also coincides with a period of unrest within the wider social media ad landscape.<ref>https://www.marketingweek.com/social-media-ad-spend-drops/</ref>

3. Digital ad revenue in the U.S. rose 10.8% to $209.7 billion last year as marketers continued to spend in online channels despite slower economic growth, market uncertainty and mass layoffs at big tech companies, according to a new report from the Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. But the increase was smaller than the 35% leap seen in 2021. <ref>https://www.wsj.com/articles/digital-ad-revenue-grew-again-in-2022-but-much-more-slowly-41485957</ref>

In addition to broader economic uncertainty, which led some companies to draw back on marketing budgets in the last part of 2022, the '''online ad business has been grappling with evolving privacy regulation and increased consumer privacy protections from companies such as Apple Inc., which some industry players say have made it harder to target messages and measure their efficacy.'''

Social media ad revenue grew 3.6% in 2022, a slowdown in growth from 39.3% a year earlier, according to the new IAB report, as privacy protections affected companies in the sector in particular. <blockquote>“Social media, of all the different kinds of [media] types that we looked at, was the most adversely affected in 2022” as a result of tech platform policies, Mr. Cohen said. </blockquote>

==== Public Companies ====

=== 2008-2009 Company Comparison ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Company
! colspan="2" |Revenue
! colspan="2" |EPS
! colspan="2" |Margin
!Comments 2009
|-
!
!2008
!2009
!2008
!2009
!2008
!2009
!
|-
|Alphabet
|
|
|
|
|
|
|To be updated here. Work in [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LW-eTnCNNbzEpsZEBrjQBcWBbNvqSvKK7VcEMuUEjqM/edit?gid=724201715#gid=724201715&range=A1 Google Sheets]
|-
|WPP<ref>https://www.wpp.com/-/media/project/wpp/files/imported-reports/2009/ar09_complete.pdf</ref>
|7,476.9
|8,684.3
|37.6p
|35.3p
|
|
|
* Pressure continued on the Group’s Advertising and Media Investment Management businesses, although the pressure seen by Media Investment Management in quarters two and three eased significantly in the final quarter.
* The pressure continued on the Group’s Advertising and Media Investment Management businesses, with '''clients continuing to seek greater and greater effectiveness and efficiencies, in markets where there is little inflation and, as a result, little pricing power and an over-supply of old and new media inventory.'''
* In constant currencies''', Advertising and Media Investment Management revenues fell by 8.6%, with like-for-like revenues down almost the same at 8.5%.''' Although cost actions were taken by the year end, the impact of revenue declines resulted in the combined annual operating margin of this sector falling by over 3.0 margin points.
|-
|Publicis<ref>https://www.publicisgroupe.com/sites/default/files/press-release/20100217_Annual_Results_2009_final.pdf</ref>
|4,704
|4,524
|2.12
|1.90
|16.7%
|15.0%
|
* As expected, after the advertising market reached its low point in 2009 during the summer, the decline, which had been gathering pace since mid-2008, began to slow, and then stopped. The fourth quarter brought an improvement, confirming the first signs of recovery.
* While the market overall was down by 12% to 14%, Publicis managed to limit the decrease to 6.5%, thereby gaining market share. Tight control over our costs and headcount; services with added value; these are some of the reasons why we were able to achieve an operating margin which remains one of the highest on the market despite the crisis.
|-
|Interpublic Group<ref>https://investors.interpublic.com/static-files/bcbb3af5-6514-4138-bc49-f67bd7800ae5</ref>
|$6,962.7
|$6,027.6
|$0.52
|$0.19
|8.5%
|5.7%
|
* Revenues were down 10.8% organically compared to the previous period. This was primarily due to the impact of the recession on marketers’ willingness to spend.
|}

=== 2008-2009 News and Commentary ===

# Us total measured advertising expenditures fell 12.3% in 2009 from 2008 levels, to $125.3 billion, according to data released by Kantar Media<ref>https://techcrunch.com/2010/03/17/advertising-expenditures-2009/</ref>

[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 192603.png|alt=|center|thumb|511x511px|https://techcrunch.com/2010/03/17/advertising-expenditures-2009/]]
2. U.S. ad spending declined nine percent in 2009, according to preliminary figures released today by The Nielsen Company. Spending fell an estimated $11.6 billion to a total of $117 billion last year. The figures continue a trend of at least six straight quarters of negative growth in the ad industry<ref>https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf</ref>

There was some notable activity among product categories outside the top 10. Investment Services not only saw ad spending fall 14% to $1.3 billion in 2009, but the category also had about 1000 fewer advertisers in 2009 compared to 2008. On the other hand, spending by web-based advertisers climbed 32% to $1.1 billion, paced by dramatic spending increases by Hulu and Bing.<blockquote>“Fourth quarter ad spending was down just two percent year-over-year, and that helped soften the full-year decline,” said Terrie Brennan, senior VP for new business development at The Nielsen Company. “In fact, most of the top advertisers showed increased spending late in the year. These are encouraging signs for an ad market that’s still trying to stop the bleeding.”</blockquote>
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 193459.png|center|thumb|553x553px|https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 193508.png|center|thumb|602x602px|https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf]]

== References ==

Advertising Industry

2025-01-13T19:32:51Z

MagaNH6: /* Dentsu Forecast */

Advertising Industry

2025-01-13T19:29:40Z

MagaNH6: /* Dentsu Forecast */

[[Industries|Industries Overview]]

[[Advertising Industry: Search]]

[[Advertising Industry: Social Media]]

Forum Topic: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/advertising-markets/92

== Methodology ==
Short description methodolgy

==== Data Sources ====

* Magna
* Zenith
* Tiniuti
* Dentsu
* S4

== Developments ==

=== Tinuiti ===

==== Q4 2023 ====
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth<ref name=":1" />
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0" />
|-
|Meta
|13%
| -3%
|16%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|8%
| -5%
|14%
|-
|''Instagram''
|27%
| 2%
|24%
|-
|TikTok
|64%
| 14%
|44%
|-
|Google
|17%
|9%
|8%
|-
|Amazon
|17%
|19%
| -2%
|-
|Walmart
|62%
| 34%
|21%
|}
==== Q3 2023 ====
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth<ref name=":1">https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dZ1kFgBmP-B16_EBlikJUSciXDfGmEa2/view</ref>
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0" />
|-
|Meta
|19%
| -19%
|46%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|16%
| -20
|46%
|-
|''Instagram''
|25%
| -11%
|41%
|-
|TikTok
|12%
| -8%
|21%
|-
|Google
|13%
|4%
|8%
|-
|Amazon
|14%
|8%
|5%
|-
|Walmart
|55%
| 33%
|17%
|}
==== Q2 2023 ====
Most of the major digital ad platforms saw an acceleration in spending growth in Q2 2023, with Instagram leading the way with a 16-point improvement in growth compared to a quarter earlier.<ref>https://drive.google.com/file/d/1soM8MQV1aQD8pQxkM225AR714JtniPzb/view</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0">https://drive.google.com/file/d/1soM8MQV1aQD8pQxkM225AR714JtniPzb/view</ref>
|-
|Meta
|9%
| -25%
|44%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|''2%''
| ''-25%''
|''37%''
|-
|''Instagram''
|''31%''
| ''-29%''
|''84%''
|-
|TikTok
|11%
| -4%
|16%
|-
|Google
|11%
|0%
|11%
|-
|Amazon
|8%
|3%
|5%
|-
|Walmart
|39%
| -4%
|45%
|}
'''Meta Platforms'''

* Meta ad spend rose 9% year-over-year versus a flat growth rate in Q1 2023.
* Meta impressions rose 44% year-over-year(Q1 2023:+42%), helped by Reels.
* Meta Platforms CPM fell 25% year-over-year(Q1 2023:-30%).

'''Facebook'''

* Facebook ad spend rose 2% year-over-year, the first positive growth in the last four quarters(Q1 2023:-4%)
* Facebook CPM declined 25% year over year(Q1 2023: -32%)
* Facebook impression rose 37%(Q1 2023: 42%)

'''Instagram'''

* Instagram impression rose 84% year-over-year(Q1 2023: 45%)
* Ad spend growth on Instagram more than doubled to 31% year-over-year from 15% in Q1 2023, aided by Instagram Reels and Explore Grid Home placements.
* Instagram CPM declined 29% year-over-year(Q1 2023: -20%).
* Instagram Reels CPC was 13% lower than that of Instagram Feeds, compared to 19% in Q1 2023.

'''TikTok'''

* Tik tok as spend rose to 11%
* TikTok CPM declined 4% year-over-year(Q1 2023:+44%).
* TikTok impression rose 16% in Q2 from a 13% decline in Q1.

== Advertising Forecast ==

=== Disclaimers ===
Do advertising agencies like Magna and Zenith have a positive bias?
=== Magna Forecast ===

==== December 2024 ====
'''Total Market Overview'''

* '''Global Ad Revenue:''' In 2024, media owners' ad revenues reached '''$933 billion''', growing by '''+10.3%''', marking the strongest growth in 25 years (excluding post-COVID recovery in 2021).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/</ref>
* '''Digital Pure Players (DPP):''' Ad sales increased by '''+13%''' to $659 billion, driven by '''Search/Commerce (+12%)''', '''Short-Form Video (+12%)''', and '''Social Media (+18%)'''.
* '''Traditional Media Owners (TMO):''' Revenues grew '''+4%''' to $274 billion, the best performance since 2010, driven by cyclical events (e.g., US elections, Summer Olympics) and '''+12% growth in non-linear ad sales (e.g., ad-supported streaming)'''.
* '''Regional Performance:''' Dynamic markets included the US and France (+12%), India and the UK (+11%), and Brazil (+14%). Growth was slower in China (+7%) and Germany (+6%).
* '''Key Verticals:''' Automotive, Finance, and CPG/FMCG were among the fastest-growing industries, while Travel showed signs of slowing.

'''Digital Advertising (DPP)'''

* '''Drivers:'''
** Growth fueled by ecommerce competition (e.g., Temu and Shein targeting Europe).
** The rise of retail media networks, which now account for $144 billion.
** Improved monetization of short-form vertical videos on social platforms like Instagram and YouTube.
** AI-powered algorithms enhancing ad placement and effectiveness.
* '''2025 Forecast:''' DPP ad sales are expected to grow by '''+9.4%''' to reach '''$721 billion''', with strong contributions from '''Retail Search (+13%)''' and '''Social Media (+13%)'''

'''Market Leaders'''

* '''The Big Three (Google, Meta, Amazon):'''
** Combined ad revenues grew '''+11% (Google)''', '''+22% (Meta)''', and '''+21% (Amazon)''', increasing their market share to '''51% globally''' and '''61% outside China'''.
** Benefited from innovations like short-form video monetization and ecommerce-driven advertising.

'''2025 Outlook'''

* '''Global Ad Revenue:''' Forecast to grow by '''+6.1%''' to $990 billion, driven by '''DPP (+9%)''', while TMO revenues are expected to decline by '''-2%''' due to a lack of major cyclical events.
* '''Key Trends:'''
** Stabilization of the European economy may boost ad spending in key markets like Germany and the UK.
** CPI inflation is slowing to '''+2%-3%''', enhancing consumer purchasing power and ad spending.
** Organic growth drivers, including AI and ecommerce, will continue to support digital ad growth.

[[File:Screenshot 2025-01-13 095407.png|center|thumb|780x780px|https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/]]
[[File:Screenshot 2025-01-13 095429.png|center|thumb|771x771px|https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/]]

==== September 2024 ====
<nowiki>**</nowiki> US only Update

Based on MAGNA’s analysis of media companies’ financial reports, '''total US ad revenues grew by +11.0% year-over-year in the second quarter. That was in line with first quarter, and in line with – slightly stronger – than MAGNA’s projection''' (+10.4%).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/political-and-olympic-advertising-boost-strong-us-ad-market/</ref>

* '''Digital pure players ad sales, rose by approx. +16% YOY''', as both Meta and Google credited new AI tools – optimizing content creation or insertion – as driving incremental spending from brands. The Big Three (Meta, Google, Amazon) reported YOY ad sales growth rates ranging +15% to +18% for the quarter.

'''MAGNA is increasing its forecast for second half, non-cyclical ad spend growth to +7.4% (previously: +6.4%).''' The half-year YOY growth rate was always expected to slow down in the second half of 2024 due to very imbalanced comps in 2023 (weak first half, strong second half).

* '''For the full-year 2024 MAGNA is now expecting advertising revenues to grow by +11.4% to $377bn (+8.9% excluding cyclical).''' +8.9% would be the strongest non-cyclical growth rate in more than twenty years, if excluding the post-COVID recovery in 2021.
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-21 101530.png|center|thumb|748x748px|https://magnaglobal.com/political-and-olympic-advertising-boost-strong-us-ad-market/]]

==== June 2024 ====
MAGNA is raising its 2024 growth forecast following a '''stronger-than-expected ad market in the first quarter (+12%)''' and an improvement in the economic outlook (real GDP growth +3.2%, US +2.5%).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/</ref>

* MAGNA’s “Global Ad Forecast” predicts media owners net advertising revenues (NAR) will reach $927 billion this year, growing +10.0% over 2023. This is a significant acceleration on the global growth recorded in 2023 (+6.4%). Neutralizing the impact of cyclical events in 2023 and 2024, the normalized acceleration is still real but more modest: non-cyclical ad revenues grew by +7.5% in 2023 and will grow by +8.7% in 2024.

* 1Q24 was an even stronger than expected. Year-over-Year growth average +12% in key markets, +17% in Spain, +15% in France, and Germany. Quarterly growth rates will gradually slow as comps become tougher in the second half, but this strong start of the year, coupled with a stronger economic outlook led us to raise the full year 2024 forecast for almost every individual market monitor, bringing the expected global growth from +6.4% in December, to +10% now. The full-year ad revenues of traditional media owners are now forecast to grow by +3% instead of +2%, and the ad sales of digital pure players are now expected to grow by +13% (previously +9.4%).
* '''In the first quarter of 2024, the leading global digital vendors reported the strongest growth rates in more than two years.''' Based on MAGNA’s analysis of financial report, global Search ad sales grew by +16% year-over-year, pure-play video by +21% and Social Media by +28% year-over-year. Quarterly growth rates are bound to slow down as comps will gradually get tougher, but MAGNA anticipates double-digit growth for all key digital formats and vendors this year.
* Full-year 2023, Google, Meta, and Amazon organic ad revenues increased by +6%, +16% and +24% respectively. '''The big three now attract a combined 60% of total advertising revenues outside China''' ($417 billion out of $698 billion), up from 57% in 2021-2022. Including China – where they don’t operate – they control 49% of global ad sales.
* US Media owners advertising revenues are forecast to reach an all-time high of $374 billion this year, growing +10.7% over 2023. This is 1.5 percentage points above our previous full-year forecast (+9.2% in our March 2024 update), following a stronger-than-expected start of the year (+12% in the first quarter) and an improvement in the macro-economic outlook – with the latest GDP growth forecasts raised to a robust +2.5%. The macro-economic factor offsets slightly lower cyclical expectations, as our political advertising forecast is reduced following by weaker-than-expected fundraising in the first few months of the year. We still expect the 2024 election campaigns to generate $9 billion dollars of incremental advertising revenues for US media owners this year, an increase of +10% vs 2020.
* The US remains the largest and most intense ad market in the world with advertisers spending $1,100 per consumer in 2024; it’s 8 times more than the global average ($160), ten times more than China ($110) and a hundred times more than India ($10). 

'''Global Forecasts'''
[[File:Table-3-Global-Ad-Forecast-for-2024.png|center|thumb|683x683px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/]]
'''US Forecasts'''
[[File:Table-1-US-Ad-Forecast.png|center|thumb|722x722px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/]]

==== March 2024 ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101337.png|center|thumb|738x738px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101001.png|center|thumb|734x734px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]

Based on MAGNA’s analysis of media companies’ financials''',''' '''non-cyclical advertising revenues grew by +9.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023''' e., the strongest quarterly growth in almost two years, bringing full-year 2023 ad market growth to +5.7%.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/digital-momentum-leads-ad-market-forecast-to-9/</ref>

Because of an improving macro-economic outlook, the momentum of digital media and streaming, and the impact of cyclical events, '''MAGNA anticipates more growth in 2024''': '''total media owners ad revenues will increase by +9.2% to reach $369 billion'''. That’s nearly one percentage point above the previous forecast (+8.4% in Dec. 2023).

'''Advertising spend around major cyclical events will drive approx. $10 billion of incremental ad sales as the 2024 election cycle will generate $9 billion''' of additional ad revenue for media owners (+13% vs the 2020 cycle). '''This will add 2.5 percentage points to the non-cyclical growth rate''', bringing total revenue growth from +6.7% (non-cyclical ad sales) to +9.2% (total ad sales). The impact will be even greater for some media categories like Local TV (excluding political -4%, including political +26%).

* Digital pure players (DPP) dominating Search, Retail, Social and Short-Form Video formats will once again capture most of the growth, with '''DPP ad sales growing by +11.7% to $260 billion''' (previous forecast +10.5%).
* '''Short form, pure player digital video''' ad sales (primarily YouTube and Twitch), will grow by +12% this year to reach $22 billion.
* '''Social media sales will feel the wind at their back and will rise +14% to $81 billion.''' Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming an increasingly important tool used by advertisers to set up, run, and optimize their social media campaigns. MAGNA looks for this to drive additional sales in 2024, especially for small businesses setting up their first campaigns.
* '''Search/Retail ad sales will increase by nearly +12% to $146 billion in 2024''' and will also benefit from increasing AI functionality in helping brands set up and run new advertising campaigns.
* '''Audio ad sales''' (terrestrial and satellite radio, audio streaming, and podcasting) will be stable at around $16 billion in 2024. Digital audio usage and ad sales continue to develop but growth rates are maturing (+6%), which means it barely offsets the erosion of linear radio (-3%)
* '''Long-Form Streaming advertising will expand by +13% to reach $10 billion milestone.'''

[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101835.png|center|thumb|745x745px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 102009.png|center|thumb|750x750px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]

==== December 2023 ====

[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-03 162449.png|center|thumb|722x722px|https://magnaglobal.com/digital-advertising-reaccelerated-in-2023-major-events-will-fuel-traditional-media-in-2024/]]

MAGNA’s “Global Ad Forecast” predicts that global media owners '''net advertising revenues (NAR) will reach $853 billion this year, +5.5%''' above the 2022 level, and will grow by +7.2% in 2024.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/digital-advertising-reaccelerated-in-2023-major-events-will-fuel-traditional-media-in-2024/</ref>

* Advertising spending accelerated and grew by +6.3% yoy in the second half of 2023 following a weaker first half (+4.7%) to average +5.5 growth full year.
* '''Digital Pure-Play media owners (DPP) ad revenue g'''rew by +10.5% to $587bn (69% of total ad sales). DPP ad sales are driven by organic growth factors incl. the rise of ecommerce, retail media
* The US market grew +3.6% to $338 billion this year (National TV -6%, Local TV -22%, Audio -4%, Publishing -7%, OOH +2%, Search +10%, Social +14%). Non-cyclical ad revenue is up +5.4% in 2023 and will accelerate to +5.9% in 2024 (+8.4% including cyclical ad spend – including almost $10 billion in political spending).
* In 2024, economic stabilization, lower inflation, digital innovation, and the return of major cyclical events (elections, international sports events) will drive ad spend +7.2% to $914 billion, +8.4% in the US. TMO ad revenues will recover by +2.2% while digital pure players ad sales will increase by +9.4%.
* After stagnating for several quarters, the global advertising sales of Google, Meta and Alibaba re-accelerated since 2Q23 to reach a year-to-date 1Q-3Q growth of +4%, +13% and +5% respectively.
* These three media owners account for a combined 49% of global advertising revenues. Outside China, the top three vendors are Google, Meta, and Amazon, capturing 80% to 90% of digital ad spend and 56% of ''total'' ad spend (the market share being lower for national consumer brands higher for small, local, direct advertisers).

==== September 2023 ====
'''''Focused on US only'''''

'''Total advertising spending re-accelerated in the second quarter of 2023. Sales were up +4.4% year-over-year, following two quarters of stagnation'''.However, only pure-play digital media vendors (Search, Social, Video) really benefited (+8.7% in 2Q23), while traditional media companies continued to struggle (-4.1% in 2Q23).The recovery in ad spend in 2Q23 was caused by a general improvement in the economy, and easier yoy comps<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-forecast-fall-2023/</ref>
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-25 104318.png|center|thumb|765x765px|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-forecast-fall-2023/]]

* As the US economy and advertising spending were both stronger than expected so far this year, and digital media is finally recovering from its 2022 woes, '''MAGNA raises its full-year ad revenue growth forecast to +5.2% for 2023 to reach $337 billion'''
* With the economic outlook improving and yoy comps becoming even easier, MAGNA maintains its growth forecast for the second half of the year. '''Total ad spend will grow by +7% to +8% in 3Q23 and 4Q23 (compared to +2.9% in first half) to bring full year growth to +5.2% (excluding cyclical), up from +4.2% in our previous update (June 2023).'''

* Around the average advertising spending growth of +4.4% in 2Q23, MAGNA observed a strong dynamic from Travel, Pharma and Retail brands, and – more surprisingly – CPG (food, drinks, personal care). The slowdown of inflation in recent months may explain this recovery in CPG brand business and marketing spending, after a difficult year 2022 when high inflation hurt the sales of premium brands.
* Looking at individual media types, digital media formats will outperform again in the next 18 months, growing by high-single digits or low double-digits. Social media formats and short-form digital video formats are finally recovering from the headwinds and disruptions that hurt ad sales in 2022, brought on by the modifications to privacy settings in the Apple environment and the rapid rise of short vertical video snacking.

==== June 2023 ====
'''Advertising spending slowed down to a halt in the first quarter of 2023 (+1.5% globally, flat in most Western markets) due to economic uncertainty and the lack of cyclical drivers.''' There are, however, some drivers mitigating the impact of economic slowdown: Ecommerce and Retail Media bringing more marketing dollars into digital advertising formats, and the counter-cyclical dynamic of some large industry verticals (Retail, Auto, Travel).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-market-june-2023-update/</ref>
[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-14 112834.png|center|thumb|683x683px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-market-june-2023-update/]]

* Magna predicts media owners advertising revenues will reach '''$842 billion this year, +4.6% growth vs. 2022 ($805bn). Deterioration of economic conditions and marketing spending in most Western markets is mitigated by stronger-than-expected growth in some markets (China, Spain), industry verticals (Retail) and media types (Retail, Social).'''
* Traditional media companies and branding formats (Television, Audio, Publishing, OOH, Cinema) are most exposed in this uncertain business climate, as some brands reduce marketing budget or prioritize performance-based digital ad formats.
* '''Digital pure-play advertising sales will grow by +8.5% to reach $577 billion dollars i.e., 69% of total ad sales''', driven by organic growth factors (ecommerce, retail media, media consumption shifts, stabilization in the data landscape).
* The strongest ad growth rate this year will come once again from India (+12.3% to $12.6bn); India is the 11th largest market. The Chinese ad market is set to recover faster than previously expected (+8.4%). At the other end of the spectrum, most Western European markets will stagnate this year: Germany, France, Italy all below +3% growth all-media, and negative for traditional media owners.
* In 2024, economic stabilization and the return of major cyclical events (US presidential elections, Paris Olympics, Euro Football championship) will re-accelerate ad spend: +6.1% to $892 billion globally, +7.3% in the US. Traditional media owners’ ad revenues will recover by +1% while digital pure players ad sales will increase by +8%.
* Social media formats will re-accelerate by +9.4% this year reach to $172 billion. The industry seems to have turned a corner in 1Q23 when Meta reported a return to YOY growth on an FX-adjusted basis after two consecutive quarters of flat or negative growth. '''Meta and other established social media vendors seem to have finally recovered from the loss of workable consumer data in the Apple ecosystem since late 2021, and they are making inroads in the monetization of the short vertical videos that have completely changed the user experience, challenging ad optimization, in less than two years.'''
* '''North America and European markets will underperform this year''' (ad market growth of +2.5% and +4.2% resp.), due to weaker economic activity (+1.6% and +0.8% real GDP growth, resp), mature media/marketing landscapes, and a lack of major cyclical driver compared to 2022. APAC (+7.1%) and Latin America (+8.7%) will grow significantly faster.

==== March 2023 ====
'''US update'''[[File:Advertising2.PNG|thumb|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/|alt=|center|571x571px]]In its new 2023 scenario, MAGNA expects little or no growth in the first half (+2% in 1Q23, +4% in 2Q23) against tough quarterly comps, followed by a recovery in the second half (+6% to +7%), as the economy solidifies, and advertising comps become much easier. Overall, full-year advertising revenues will grow by +3.4% this year to reach $326 billion (incl. CE).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/</ref>

* Search and e-commerce advertising formats (Google, Amazon, retail media networks) will continue to be driven by the expansion of e-commerce to CPG and grow by +10% (slowing down from +14% in 2022) to remain the largest advertising format ($125bn in 2023)
* Social media formats (Facebook, Instagram, Tiktok …) will re-accelerate +6% to $66bn after stalling in 2022 (+2%) due to headwinds including audience maturity and the data targeting limitations established in 2021.
* Cross-platform audio ad sales will stabilize at around $17 billion this year. Linear radio ad formats will drop -4%, while digital audio formats (audio streaming, podcasting) will rise +9%. Podcasting will help drive digital audio growth, and grow +16%, though this represents a slowdown compared to MAGNA’s previous forecast of +22%
''Magna is using the assumption of Real GDP growth of +1.3% in 2023.''

=== Grupo M ===

==== December 2024 ====
'''Key Findings:'''<ref>https://www.groupm.com/newsroom/groupms-end-of-year-global-advertising-forecast-projects-9-5-growth-in-total-2024-advertising-revenue/?utm_source=chatgpt.com</ref><ref>https://www.groupm.com/this-year-next-year-2024-global-end-of-year-forecast/</ref>

* '''Global Growth:''' Global advertising revenue is projected to grow 9.5% in 2024, reaching over $1 trillion for the first time (excluding U.S. political ads). A further 7.7% increase is expected in 2025, pushing total revenue to $1.1 trillion.
* '''Digital Dominance:''' Pure-play digital advertising remains the primary growth driver, with a projected 12.4% increase in 2024. Digital is expected to constitute 72.9% of total ad spend by 2025.
* '''Retail Media Expansion:''' Retail media is a key growth area, forecasted to hit $177.1 billion globally in 2025, surpassing TV revenue (including streaming) for the first time.
* '''Out-of-Home (OOH):''' OOH advertising has maintained its share, with digital OOH (DOOH) driving growth, projected to contribute 42% of total OOH revenue by 2025.
* '''Other Channels:'''
** Global audio revenue is expected to remain flat in 2025.
** Print advertising continues to decline due to digitization and AI disruptions.

'''Market Insights:'''

* '''Top Markets Growth:''' All top ten advertising markets are projected to grow in 2024:
** '''U.S.:''' 9.0% growth to $400.2 billion.
** '''China:''' 13.5% growth to $204.5 billion.
** '''Other Key Markets:''' UK, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, Brazil, India, and Australia

=== Dentsu Forecast ===

==== December 2024 ====
Dentsu's Global Ad Spend Forecasts project a 6.8% year-over-year increase in global advertising spend for 2024, reaching $772.4 billion. Growth is expected to continue at 5.9% in 2025, outpacing the global economy by 2.7 percentage points. Key drivers include the resurgence of digital ad spend, major sporting and political events, and stronger economic conditions in the US, UK, Brazil, and France.<ref>https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/global-ad-spend-forecasts-2025</ref>

'''Regional Insights:'''

* '''Americas:''' Expected 6.3% growth in 2025, driven by the US and Brazil, with strong digital and streaming investments.
* '''Asia-Pacific:''' Projected 5.8% growth, with AI-driven ad placements boosting digital ad spend, particularly in India.
* '''EMEA:''' Forecasted to grow by 5.0%, led by digital expansion in the UK.

'''Media Channel Trends:'''

* '''Digital:''' Forecasted to grow by 9.2% in 2025, reaching $513 billion and representing 62.7% of global ad spend. Retail media (+21.9%) and paid social (+8.7%) will drive growth, with paid search increasing by 6.7%.
* '''Programmatic Advertising:''' Expected to grow by 11.1% and represent over 70% of digital ad spend by 2027.
* '''Television:''' Marginal growth of 0.6%, with connected TV surging (+18.4%) while traditional broadcast TV declines (-2.5%).
* '''Other Media:''' Print continues to decline, while cinema and out-of-home (OOH) advertising show moderate growth (+3.2% and +3.9%).

'''Key Sectors:'''

* Finance (+6.4%), pharmaceuticals (+5.8%), and travel and transport (+5.5%) are set to see significant ad spend increases, adapting to changing consumer demands.

'''Strategic Insights:''' Dentsu emphasizes the rise of the "algorithmic era," where data-driven, algorithmically enabled ad spend will shape media strategies, reaching 79% of total ad spend by 2027. This shift will continue reshaping how brands engage with consumers, especially in digital-first environments.

Key Trends in the Digital and Social Ad Market:

# '''AI-Powered Media Planning:'''
#* AI is becoming a central tool for media strategy, with platforms like Meta's Advantage+ and Google's Performance Max leading the charge. These tools use AI to automate targeting, creative optimization, and campaign management, improving efficiency and performance.
#* AI helps brands generate predictive insights, dynamic scenario planning, and real-time optimizations across multiple channels.
# '''Algorithm-Driven Advertising:'''
#* The media landscape is evolving into an "algorithmic era" where platforms optimize content and ads based on performance data rather than direct audience engagement.
#* Brands need to adjust strategies to work within these algorithmic systems, focusing on content optimization and automation for targeting diverse audience segments.
# '''Rise of Retail Media Networks:'''
#* Retailers are transforming into major digital ad players, leveraging their first-party shopper data for targeted advertising. Amazon, Walmart, and CVS are among those expanding their ad services.
#* Walmart's acquisition of Vizio offers new data streams and inventory, pushing towards fully shoppable TV experiences.
# '''Connected Television (CTV) and Streaming Ads:'''
#* CTV is scaling rapidly, with platforms like Netflix, Prime Video, and Disney+ enhancing their ad-supported models. Prime Video alone has over 200 million viewers available for campaigns.
#* This expansion is driving ad inventory growth, potentially decreasing CPM rates but increasing competition for premium ad placements.
# '''Micro-Moments and Personalized Engagement:'''
#* AI-driven micro-moments, where brands engage with consumers in personalized, one-to-one interactions, are becoming essential. Social platforms curate content feeds based on user behavior, reducing the need for clicks but increasing the demand for in-feed ads.
#* Business messaging platforms like WhatsApp and WeChat are also being used for direct brand-to-consumer interactions, enhancing personalization.
# '''Creator Economy and Niche Targeting:'''
#* Investment in short-form video, influencer marketing, and live content is rising, with platforms like TikTok and YouTube leading in creator monetization.
#* Brands are increasingly leveraging niche communities and influencers for authentic audience connections, recognizing the power of smaller, highly engaged groups.

==== June 2024 ====

* Global advertising spend is now forecast to grow by 5.0% in 2024 (vs. 3.3% in 2023) to reach $754.4 billion, as spend prospects improve in the UK, Germany, US, Japan, and France.<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/AdSpendMay2024</ref>
* Digital is beating previous growth expectations and is now predicted to increase by 7.4% to capture 59.6% of global spend in 2024, with double-digit growth for retail media and paid social.
* Substantial ad spend increases are forecast for retail media (+32.0% YOY, 17.7% three-year CAGR to 2026), paid social (+13.7% YOY), and programmatic (+10.9% YOY), while paid search (+7.7% YOY) and online video (+6.7% YOY) are set to maintain strong growth.
* The US presidential election alone is forecast to account for about a third ($11 billion) of the incremental ad spend in 2024.
* In the top 12 markets,** inflation-adjusted growth is projected at 2.6% in 2024 (vs. 5.2% at current prices), as media inflation shows signs of coming down but remains high, especially for TV and sought-after digital video formats such as social video.

[[File:Ad Spend Per Medium 2022-2026.png|center|thumb|712x712px|https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/ad-spend-growth-tracks-ahead-of-the-economy#:~:text=Ad%20spend%20growth%20tracks%20ahead,forecasts%20to%205.0%25%20for%202024&text=Global%20advertising%20spend%20is%20now,US%2C%20Japan%2C%20and%20France.]]
[[File:Ad Spend Per Region 2022-2026.png|center|thumb|732x732px|https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/ad-spend-growth-tracks-ahead-of-the-economy#:~:text=Ad%20spend%20growth%20tracks%20ahead,forecasts%20to%205.0%25%20for%202024&text=Global%20advertising%20spend%20is%20now,US%2C%20Japan%2C%20and%20France.]]

===== December 2023 =====
[[File:Share of global spend by channel.jpg|center|thumb|747x747px|https://info.dentsu.com/dentsuGlobalAdSpendForecasts_December2023]]

Latest forecast, covering 58 markets across the globe, is that '''advertising spend will expand by $33.0 billion in 2024 to reach $752.8 billion. This represents a 4.6% growth year-over-year for the ad industry – much faster than the pace seen in 2023 (+2.7% vs. 2022).'''<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/dentsuGlobalAdSpendForecasts_December2023</ref>

* Whilst the first quarter will be the slowest of the year (4.2%), growth is forecast to accelerate in the second quarter (4.9%) before peaking during the third (5.5%), supported by major sports events
* Global advertising spend at constant prices actually decreased by 0.7% in 2023.
* In 2024, advertising spend is forecast to represent, on average, 0.75% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the countries we track, which is consistent with the average annual ad spend/GDP indicator observed in the last 20 years (0.70%).
* In 2024, advertisers will spend, on average, $139 per capita across the world. It is about 75% more than what they spent 20 years ago ($80).
* Digital is expected to follow an upward trajectory to reach $442.6 billion in 2024, representing 58.8% of global advertising spend. Total display spend (including social and digital video) has grown by 6.4% in 2023to reach $220.7 billion. It is forecast to grow by 6.9% in 2024, and by a 6.5% three-year CAGR to 2026.
* In the digital space, retail media investments will accelerate the fastest with a 17.2% three-year CAGR, followed by paid social investments (12.3% three-year CAGR), especially in Asia-Pacific (21.0% three-year CAGR). Programmatic channels, that already account for more than 70% of digital ad spend, are also expected to continue growing by doubledigits (10.2% three-year CAGR).

==== May 2023 ====
“The adjusted for 2023 points to continued growth, albeit adjusted marginally downwards from the 3.5% predicted in the December 2022 report, in the most part due to macroeconomic factors. Exploring behind the headlines, the report also shows '''growth driven by media price inflation rather than increased advertising volume, where advertising spend at constant prices is expected to decline slightly, with –0.6% reduction year on year”'''<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/ad-spend-may-2023-pdf</ref>

* Global advertising spend expected to grow by '''3.3% in 2023 with inflation driving increase to reach US$727.9 billion'''
* Stronger growth ahead, with 2024 global advertising market now expected to increase by 4.7%, to reach US$762.5 billion, with a further 3.8% growth into 2025
* Digital is projected to settle into almost consistent incremental growth for three years, to account for around $3 in every $5 spent in advertising worldwide.
* '''Social spend is forecast to grow by a 12.8% three-year CAGR''', driven by new platforms, social commerce, and the popularity of short-form video content across platforms such as TikTok and Instagram Reels
* '''Programmatic is expected to grow at a 11.0% three-year CAGR to reach a forecast 76% share of digital spend in 2025''', a year-by-year analysis reveals its growth will slow (14.4% in 2023, 9.2% in 2024, 9.5% in 2025).
* Traditional radio is projected to decrease by 0.1% in 2023 whilst '''online radio growth is forecast at 3.6%.'''

=== Zenith Forecast ===

==== December 2023 ====
Zenith’s latest ''Advertising Expenditure Forecasts'' reports continued resilience and forecasts 5.3% global advertising growth for 2023, which is above initial expectations given a healthier than expected Q3 for major digital advertisers.<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-forecasts-4-8-growth-for-2024-marking-continued-adspend-acceleration-into-2025-and-beyond/</ref>

* '''Global adspend growth is expected at 4.8% in 2024,''' excluding U.S. political spending*, aided by events such as the Olympics as well as a combination of continued advertiser spending in support of their brands and the positive impact of Chinese brands fueling growth.
* The Americas are expected to continue as the fastest-growing region with 5.7% advertising growth in 2024. Europe continues to contribute meaningful growth (4.5%) due in part to online spending, while Asia-Pac (3.8%) remains impacted by China’s slower-than-expected recovery.
* Adspend momentum remains steadily on an upward trajectory in large part due to the strong adoption of online propositions such as retail media and social media. Online continues to lead as the fastest-growing category, accounting for 59% of overall spending in 2024 and expected to increase to 61% in 2026, with a CAGR of 4.6%.

==== June 2022 ====

* The global advertising market will continue to maintain its resilience and Zenith '''forecasts a 4.4% growth in global advertising expenditure for 2023'''<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-reports-a-consistent-global-ad-market-with-4-4-growth/</ref>
* Global adspend growth is expected to accelerate '''6.9% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025''' to account for nearly $1 trillion in advertising spending in 2025.
* '''North America''' is expected to continue to provide the biggest contribution to advertising growth between 2023 and 2025 with adspend growing US $53 billion – representing 41% of total adspend during the period. A healthy growth of '''4.3% is expected in 2023 and Zenith forecasts advertising expenditure will then jump to 9.8% in 2024 thanks to the Presidential election and the Olympics.'''
* '''Online, including Retail Media, Search and Social Media''', will continue to lead as the fastest-growing category, constituting 57% of overall adspend in 2023. Zenith forecasts an increase to 59% in '''2025, with a compounded annual growth rate of 6.8%.''' Retail Media will drive the category growth, with an estimated annual global spend of $129 billion in 2025 and an expected compounded annual growth rate of 11.5% from 2022 to 2025.
* Zenith forecasts a compounded growth rate of '''25% between 2022 and 2025 within the Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) space.'''

==== December 2022 ====
According to Zenith, the advertising industry is expected to maintain its resilience in 2023 despite current economic challenges, driven by the growth of new channels such as retail media and advertising on [https://www.appsflyer.com/glossary/svod/ Subscription Video on Demand] (SVOD) services. '''They anticipate a 4.5% growth in ad spending. Furthermore, global ad spending growth is expected to pick up pace to 7.2% in 2024''', driven by major events like the US Presidential elections and the Olympics.<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-forecasts-4-5-growth-for-2023-after-7-3-uplift-in-2022-marking-continued-healthy-growth/#:~:text=Zenith%20estimates%20that%20advertising%20on,are%20likely%20to%20follow%20suit</ref>

Online advertising, specifically Search and Social Media, is expected to continue as the fastest-growing category, making up 55% of overall ad spending in 2022 and projected to increase to 57% by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 7%.
*

*

== Advertising behavior during a recession ==
Looking back at the 3 last recessions<ref>https://www.statista.com/statistics/272443/growth-of-advertising-spending-worldwide/</ref>, it is clear ad budgets get cut during economic contractions, but the magnitude of the decline can vary depending on the severity of the recession, the specific industries and companies involved, and their advertising strategy.

Important to note that the advertising industry could recover quickly after crises, often reaching or even exceeding prior spending levels within one to two years post-economic downturn.

* COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a 3.7 percent decrease in ad spending in 2020 compared to 2019.
* During the Great Financial Crisis, advertising spending experienced a decrease of 9.5% in 2009
* During the Dot Com crisis, advertising spending saw a decrease of 4.04% in 2001
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Year'''
|'''Ad spending in million U.S. dollars'''
|'''Growth Rate'''
|-
|2024*
|884,999
|7.57%
|-
|2023*
|822,756
|5.36%
|-
|2022*
|780,870
|8.03%
|-
|2021
|722,843
|16.00%
|-
|2020
|623,116
| -3.70%
|-
|2019
|647,035
|5.43%
|-
|2018
|613,721
|6.80%
|-
|2017
|574,640
|6.08%
|-
|2016
|541,698
|5.53%
|-
|2015
|513,304
|4.60%
|-
|2014
|490,713
|5.61%
|-
|2013
|464,668
|4.87%
|-
|2012
|443,077
|4.34%
|-
|2011
|424,666
|3.92%
|-
|2010
|408,663
|7.82%
|-
|2009
|379,036
| -9.50%
|-
|2008
|418,828
| -0.12%
|-
|2007
|419,319
|5.60%
|-
|2006
|397,088
|6.56%
|-
|2005
|372,646
|5.22%
|-
|2004
|354,171
|6.61%
|-
|2003
|332,198
|3.01%
|-
|2002
|322,505
|0.10%
|-
|2001
|322,182
| -4.04%
|-
|2000
|335,733
|
|}

=== 2022 Developments ===

==== Magna ====
[[File:US-Ad-Forecast-March-2023-Option-2-768x570.png|center|thumb|580x580px|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/]]
'''Social media''' formats (Facebook, Instagram, Tiktok …) will re-accelerate +6% to $66bn after stalling in 2022 (+2%) due to headwinds including audience maturity and the data targeting limitations established in 2021.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/</ref>

==== News ====

# After years of social media being one of the most powerful engines of digital ad spending growth, 2022 saw the first meaningful decline in social’s share of digital ad spending since Insider Intelligence began tracking it in 2008. This was, in part, due to the rise of retail media and connected TV (CTV), plus a radical slowdown in growth caused by ATT.<ref>https://www.insiderintelligence.com/insights/social-media-paid-ads/</ref>

Previously expected $33.98 billion in social network video ad spending by 2022, and that figure has now been slashed to $29.82 billion—a difference of more than $4 billion. These staggering reductions are the result of a perfect storm starting in 2021—with '''Apple’s rollout of its AppTrackingTransparency framework, followed by a downturn in the global economy due to persistent inflation, soaring interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and the Russia-Ukraine war.'''
[[File:Screenshot 2024-02-07 111654.png|center|thumb|547x547px]]2. Over the full year, UK social media spend, which is a sub-category of the online display section in the report, increased by 4.9%. The overall category grew at 10% in 2022 and is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2023. Total ad spend grew 8.8% in 2022.

* Sharp and sustained falls in social media spend – the first time this has been recorded in the UK – are likely to have been instigated by r'''educed advertising activity among the SMEs who comprise a ‘long tail’ of ad volume on social platforms and whose margins are under incredible stress as inflation''' bites
* The decline in the latter half of 2022 also coincides with a period of unrest within the wider social media ad landscape.<ref>https://www.marketingweek.com/social-media-ad-spend-drops/</ref>

3. Digital ad revenue in the U.S. rose 10.8% to $209.7 billion last year as marketers continued to spend in online channels despite slower economic growth, market uncertainty and mass layoffs at big tech companies, according to a new report from the Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. But the increase was smaller than the 35% leap seen in 2021. <ref>https://www.wsj.com/articles/digital-ad-revenue-grew-again-in-2022-but-much-more-slowly-41485957</ref>

In addition to broader economic uncertainty, which led some companies to draw back on marketing budgets in the last part of 2022, the '''online ad business has been grappling with evolving privacy regulation and increased consumer privacy protections from companies such as Apple Inc., which some industry players say have made it harder to target messages and measure their efficacy.'''

Social media ad revenue grew 3.6% in 2022, a slowdown in growth from 39.3% a year earlier, according to the new IAB report, as privacy protections affected companies in the sector in particular. <blockquote>“Social media, of all the different kinds of [media] types that we looked at, was the most adversely affected in 2022” as a result of tech platform policies, Mr. Cohen said. </blockquote>

==== Public Companies ====

=== 2008-2009 Company Comparison ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Company
! colspan="2" |Revenue
! colspan="2" |EPS
! colspan="2" |Margin
!Comments 2009
|-
!
!2008
!2009
!2008
!2009
!2008
!2009
!
|-
|Alphabet
|
|
|
|
|
|
|To be updated here. Work in [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LW-eTnCNNbzEpsZEBrjQBcWBbNvqSvKK7VcEMuUEjqM/edit?gid=724201715#gid=724201715&range=A1 Google Sheets]
|-
|WPP<ref>https://www.wpp.com/-/media/project/wpp/files/imported-reports/2009/ar09_complete.pdf</ref>
|7,476.9
|8,684.3
|37.6p
|35.3p
|
|
|
* Pressure continued on the Group’s Advertising and Media Investment Management businesses, although the pressure seen by Media Investment Management in quarters two and three eased significantly in the final quarter.
* The pressure continued on the Group’s Advertising and Media Investment Management businesses, with '''clients continuing to seek greater and greater effectiveness and efficiencies, in markets where there is little inflation and, as a result, little pricing power and an over-supply of old and new media inventory.'''
* In constant currencies''', Advertising and Media Investment Management revenues fell by 8.6%, with like-for-like revenues down almost the same at 8.5%.''' Although cost actions were taken by the year end, the impact of revenue declines resulted in the combined annual operating margin of this sector falling by over 3.0 margin points.
|-
|Publicis<ref>https://www.publicisgroupe.com/sites/default/files/press-release/20100217_Annual_Results_2009_final.pdf</ref>
|4,704
|4,524
|2.12
|1.90
|16.7%
|15.0%
|
* As expected, after the advertising market reached its low point in 2009 during the summer, the decline, which had been gathering pace since mid-2008, began to slow, and then stopped. The fourth quarter brought an improvement, confirming the first signs of recovery.
* While the market overall was down by 12% to 14%, Publicis managed to limit the decrease to 6.5%, thereby gaining market share. Tight control over our costs and headcount; services with added value; these are some of the reasons why we were able to achieve an operating margin which remains one of the highest on the market despite the crisis.
|-
|Interpublic Group<ref>https://investors.interpublic.com/static-files/bcbb3af5-6514-4138-bc49-f67bd7800ae5</ref>
|$6,962.7
|$6,027.6
|$0.52
|$0.19
|8.5%
|5.7%
|
* Revenues were down 10.8% organically compared to the previous period. This was primarily due to the impact of the recession on marketers’ willingness to spend.
|}

=== 2008-2009 News and Commentary ===

# Us total measured advertising expenditures fell 12.3% in 2009 from 2008 levels, to $125.3 billion, according to data released by Kantar Media<ref>https://techcrunch.com/2010/03/17/advertising-expenditures-2009/</ref>

[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 192603.png|alt=|center|thumb|511x511px|https://techcrunch.com/2010/03/17/advertising-expenditures-2009/]]
2. U.S. ad spending declined nine percent in 2009, according to preliminary figures released today by The Nielsen Company. Spending fell an estimated $11.6 billion to a total of $117 billion last year. The figures continue a trend of at least six straight quarters of negative growth in the ad industry<ref>https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf</ref>

There was some notable activity among product categories outside the top 10. Investment Services not only saw ad spending fall 14% to $1.3 billion in 2009, but the category also had about 1000 fewer advertisers in 2009 compared to 2008. On the other hand, spending by web-based advertisers climbed 32% to $1.1 billion, paced by dramatic spending increases by Hulu and Bing.<blockquote>“Fourth quarter ad spending was down just two percent year-over-year, and that helped soften the full-year decline,” said Terrie Brennan, senior VP for new business development at The Nielsen Company. “In fact, most of the top advertisers showed increased spending late in the year. These are encouraging signs for an ad market that’s still trying to stop the bleeding.”</blockquote>
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 193459.png|center|thumb|553x553px|https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 193508.png|center|thumb|602x602px|https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf]]

== References ==

Advertising Industry

2025-01-13T18:26:44Z

MagaNH6:

[[Industries|Industries Overview]]

[[Advertising Industry: Search]]

[[Advertising Industry: Social Media]]

Forum Topic: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/advertising-markets/92

== Methodology ==
Short description methodolgy

==== Data Sources ====

* Magna
* Zenith
* Tiniuti
* Dentsu
* S4

== Developments ==

=== Tinuiti ===

==== Q4 2023 ====
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth<ref name=":1" />
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0" />
|-
|Meta
|13%
| -3%
|16%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|8%
| -5%
|14%
|-
|''Instagram''
|27%
| 2%
|24%
|-
|TikTok
|64%
| 14%
|44%
|-
|Google
|17%
|9%
|8%
|-
|Amazon
|17%
|19%
| -2%
|-
|Walmart
|62%
| 34%
|21%
|}
==== Q3 2023 ====
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth<ref name=":1">https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dZ1kFgBmP-B16_EBlikJUSciXDfGmEa2/view</ref>
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0" />
|-
|Meta
|19%
| -19%
|46%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|16%
| -20
|46%
|-
|''Instagram''
|25%
| -11%
|41%
|-
|TikTok
|12%
| -8%
|21%
|-
|Google
|13%
|4%
|8%
|-
|Amazon
|14%
|8%
|5%
|-
|Walmart
|55%
| 33%
|17%
|}
==== Q2 2023 ====
Most of the major digital ad platforms saw an acceleration in spending growth in Q2 2023, with Instagram leading the way with a 16-point improvement in growth compared to a quarter earlier.<ref>https://drive.google.com/file/d/1soM8MQV1aQD8pQxkM225AR714JtniPzb/view</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0">https://drive.google.com/file/d/1soM8MQV1aQD8pQxkM225AR714JtniPzb/view</ref>
|-
|Meta
|9%
| -25%
|44%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|''2%''
| ''-25%''
|''37%''
|-
|''Instagram''
|''31%''
| ''-29%''
|''84%''
|-
|TikTok
|11%
| -4%
|16%
|-
|Google
|11%
|0%
|11%
|-
|Amazon
|8%
|3%
|5%
|-
|Walmart
|39%
| -4%
|45%
|}
'''Meta Platforms'''

* Meta ad spend rose 9% year-over-year versus a flat growth rate in Q1 2023.
* Meta impressions rose 44% year-over-year(Q1 2023:+42%), helped by Reels.
* Meta Platforms CPM fell 25% year-over-year(Q1 2023:-30%).

'''Facebook'''

* Facebook ad spend rose 2% year-over-year, the first positive growth in the last four quarters(Q1 2023:-4%)
* Facebook CPM declined 25% year over year(Q1 2023: -32%)
* Facebook impression rose 37%(Q1 2023: 42%)

'''Instagram'''

* Instagram impression rose 84% year-over-year(Q1 2023: 45%)
* Ad spend growth on Instagram more than doubled to 31% year-over-year from 15% in Q1 2023, aided by Instagram Reels and Explore Grid Home placements.
* Instagram CPM declined 29% year-over-year(Q1 2023: -20%).
* Instagram Reels CPC was 13% lower than that of Instagram Feeds, compared to 19% in Q1 2023.

'''TikTok'''

* Tik tok as spend rose to 11%
* TikTok CPM declined 4% year-over-year(Q1 2023:+44%).
* TikTok impression rose 16% in Q2 from a 13% decline in Q1.

== Advertising Forecast ==

=== Disclaimers ===
Do advertising agencies like Magna and Zenith have a positive bias?
=== Magna Forecast ===

==== December 2024 ====
'''Total Market Overview'''

* '''Global Ad Revenue:''' In 2024, media owners' ad revenues reached '''$933 billion''', growing by '''+10.3%''', marking the strongest growth in 25 years (excluding post-COVID recovery in 2021).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/</ref>
* '''Digital Pure Players (DPP):''' Ad sales increased by '''+13%''' to $659 billion, driven by '''Search/Commerce (+12%)''', '''Short-Form Video (+12%)''', and '''Social Media (+18%)'''.
* '''Traditional Media Owners (TMO):''' Revenues grew '''+4%''' to $274 billion, the best performance since 2010, driven by cyclical events (e.g., US elections, Summer Olympics) and '''+12% growth in non-linear ad sales (e.g., ad-supported streaming)'''.
* '''Regional Performance:''' Dynamic markets included the US and France (+12%), India and the UK (+11%), and Brazil (+14%). Growth was slower in China (+7%) and Germany (+6%).
* '''Key Verticals:''' Automotive, Finance, and CPG/FMCG were among the fastest-growing industries, while Travel showed signs of slowing.

'''Digital Advertising (DPP)'''

* '''Drivers:'''
** Growth fueled by ecommerce competition (e.g., Temu and Shein targeting Europe).
** The rise of retail media networks, which now account for $144 billion.
** Improved monetization of short-form vertical videos on social platforms like Instagram and YouTube.
** AI-powered algorithms enhancing ad placement and effectiveness.
* '''2025 Forecast:''' DPP ad sales are expected to grow by '''+9.4%''' to reach '''$721 billion''', with strong contributions from '''Retail Search (+13%)''' and '''Social Media (+13%)'''

'''Market Leaders'''

* '''The Big Three (Google, Meta, Amazon):'''
** Combined ad revenues grew '''+11% (Google)''', '''+22% (Meta)''', and '''+21% (Amazon)''', increasing their market share to '''51% globally''' and '''61% outside China'''.
** Benefited from innovations like short-form video monetization and ecommerce-driven advertising.

'''2025 Outlook'''

* '''Global Ad Revenue:''' Forecast to grow by '''+6.1%''' to $990 billion, driven by '''DPP (+9%)''', while TMO revenues are expected to decline by '''-2%''' due to a lack of major cyclical events.
* '''Key Trends:'''
** Stabilization of the European economy may boost ad spending in key markets like Germany and the UK.
** CPI inflation is slowing to '''+2%-3%''', enhancing consumer purchasing power and ad spending.
** Organic growth drivers, including AI and ecommerce, will continue to support digital ad growth.

[[File:Screenshot 2025-01-13 095407.png|center|thumb|780x780px|https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/]]
[[File:Screenshot 2025-01-13 095429.png|center|thumb|771x771px|https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/]]

==== September 2024 ====
<nowiki>**</nowiki> US only Update

Based on MAGNA’s analysis of media companies’ financial reports, '''total US ad revenues grew by +11.0% year-over-year in the second quarter. That was in line with first quarter, and in line with – slightly stronger – than MAGNA’s projection''' (+10.4%).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/political-and-olympic-advertising-boost-strong-us-ad-market/</ref>

* '''Digital pure players ad sales, rose by approx. +16% YOY''', as both Meta and Google credited new AI tools – optimizing content creation or insertion – as driving incremental spending from brands. The Big Three (Meta, Google, Amazon) reported YOY ad sales growth rates ranging +15% to +18% for the quarter.

'''MAGNA is increasing its forecast for second half, non-cyclical ad spend growth to +7.4% (previously: +6.4%).''' The half-year YOY growth rate was always expected to slow down in the second half of 2024 due to very imbalanced comps in 2023 (weak first half, strong second half).

* '''For the full-year 2024 MAGNA is now expecting advertising revenues to grow by +11.4% to $377bn (+8.9% excluding cyclical).''' +8.9% would be the strongest non-cyclical growth rate in more than twenty years, if excluding the post-COVID recovery in 2021.
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-21 101530.png|center|thumb|748x748px|https://magnaglobal.com/political-and-olympic-advertising-boost-strong-us-ad-market/]]

==== June 2024 ====
MAGNA is raising its 2024 growth forecast following a '''stronger-than-expected ad market in the first quarter (+12%)''' and an improvement in the economic outlook (real GDP growth +3.2%, US +2.5%).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/</ref>

* MAGNA’s “Global Ad Forecast” predicts media owners net advertising revenues (NAR) will reach $927 billion this year, growing +10.0% over 2023. This is a significant acceleration on the global growth recorded in 2023 (+6.4%). Neutralizing the impact of cyclical events in 2023 and 2024, the normalized acceleration is still real but more modest: non-cyclical ad revenues grew by +7.5% in 2023 and will grow by +8.7% in 2024.

* 1Q24 was an even stronger than expected. Year-over-Year growth average +12% in key markets, +17% in Spain, +15% in France, and Germany. Quarterly growth rates will gradually slow as comps become tougher in the second half, but this strong start of the year, coupled with a stronger economic outlook led us to raise the full year 2024 forecast for almost every individual market monitor, bringing the expected global growth from +6.4% in December, to +10% now. The full-year ad revenues of traditional media owners are now forecast to grow by +3% instead of +2%, and the ad sales of digital pure players are now expected to grow by +13% (previously +9.4%).
* '''In the first quarter of 2024, the leading global digital vendors reported the strongest growth rates in more than two years.''' Based on MAGNA’s analysis of financial report, global Search ad sales grew by +16% year-over-year, pure-play video by +21% and Social Media by +28% year-over-year. Quarterly growth rates are bound to slow down as comps will gradually get tougher, but MAGNA anticipates double-digit growth for all key digital formats and vendors this year.
* Full-year 2023, Google, Meta, and Amazon organic ad revenues increased by +6%, +16% and +24% respectively. '''The big three now attract a combined 60% of total advertising revenues outside China''' ($417 billion out of $698 billion), up from 57% in 2021-2022. Including China – where they don’t operate – they control 49% of global ad sales.
* US Media owners advertising revenues are forecast to reach an all-time high of $374 billion this year, growing +10.7% over 2023. This is 1.5 percentage points above our previous full-year forecast (+9.2% in our March 2024 update), following a stronger-than-expected start of the year (+12% in the first quarter) and an improvement in the macro-economic outlook – with the latest GDP growth forecasts raised to a robust +2.5%. The macro-economic factor offsets slightly lower cyclical expectations, as our political advertising forecast is reduced following by weaker-than-expected fundraising in the first few months of the year. We still expect the 2024 election campaigns to generate $9 billion dollars of incremental advertising revenues for US media owners this year, an increase of +10% vs 2020.
* The US remains the largest and most intense ad market in the world with advertisers spending $1,100 per consumer in 2024; it’s 8 times more than the global average ($160), ten times more than China ($110) and a hundred times more than India ($10). 

'''Global Forecasts'''
[[File:Table-3-Global-Ad-Forecast-for-2024.png|center|thumb|683x683px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/]]
'''US Forecasts'''
[[File:Table-1-US-Ad-Forecast.png|center|thumb|722x722px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/]]

==== March 2024 ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101337.png|center|thumb|738x738px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101001.png|center|thumb|734x734px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]

Based on MAGNA’s analysis of media companies’ financials''',''' '''non-cyclical advertising revenues grew by +9.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023''' e., the strongest quarterly growth in almost two years, bringing full-year 2023 ad market growth to +5.7%.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/digital-momentum-leads-ad-market-forecast-to-9/</ref>

Because of an improving macro-economic outlook, the momentum of digital media and streaming, and the impact of cyclical events, '''MAGNA anticipates more growth in 2024''': '''total media owners ad revenues will increase by +9.2% to reach $369 billion'''. That’s nearly one percentage point above the previous forecast (+8.4% in Dec. 2023).

'''Advertising spend around major cyclical events will drive approx. $10 billion of incremental ad sales as the 2024 election cycle will generate $9 billion''' of additional ad revenue for media owners (+13% vs the 2020 cycle). '''This will add 2.5 percentage points to the non-cyclical growth rate''', bringing total revenue growth from +6.7% (non-cyclical ad sales) to +9.2% (total ad sales). The impact will be even greater for some media categories like Local TV (excluding political -4%, including political +26%).

* Digital pure players (DPP) dominating Search, Retail, Social and Short-Form Video formats will once again capture most of the growth, with '''DPP ad sales growing by +11.7% to $260 billion''' (previous forecast +10.5%).
* '''Short form, pure player digital video''' ad sales (primarily YouTube and Twitch), will grow by +12% this year to reach $22 billion.
* '''Social media sales will feel the wind at their back and will rise +14% to $81 billion.''' Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming an increasingly important tool used by advertisers to set up, run, and optimize their social media campaigns. MAGNA looks for this to drive additional sales in 2024, especially for small businesses setting up their first campaigns.
* '''Search/Retail ad sales will increase by nearly +12% to $146 billion in 2024''' and will also benefit from increasing AI functionality in helping brands set up and run new advertising campaigns.
* '''Audio ad sales''' (terrestrial and satellite radio, audio streaming, and podcasting) will be stable at around $16 billion in 2024. Digital audio usage and ad sales continue to develop but growth rates are maturing (+6%), which means it barely offsets the erosion of linear radio (-3%)
* '''Long-Form Streaming advertising will expand by +13% to reach $10 billion milestone.'''

[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101835.png|center|thumb|745x745px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 102009.png|center|thumb|750x750px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]

==== December 2023 ====

[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-03 162449.png|center|thumb|722x722px|https://magnaglobal.com/digital-advertising-reaccelerated-in-2023-major-events-will-fuel-traditional-media-in-2024/]]

MAGNA’s “Global Ad Forecast” predicts that global media owners '''net advertising revenues (NAR) will reach $853 billion this year, +5.5%''' above the 2022 level, and will grow by +7.2% in 2024.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/digital-advertising-reaccelerated-in-2023-major-events-will-fuel-traditional-media-in-2024/</ref>

* Advertising spending accelerated and grew by +6.3% yoy in the second half of 2023 following a weaker first half (+4.7%) to average +5.5 growth full year.
* '''Digital Pure-Play media owners (DPP) ad revenue g'''rew by +10.5% to $587bn (69% of total ad sales). DPP ad sales are driven by organic growth factors incl. the rise of ecommerce, retail media
* The US market grew +3.6% to $338 billion this year (National TV -6%, Local TV -22%, Audio -4%, Publishing -7%, OOH +2%, Search +10%, Social +14%). Non-cyclical ad revenue is up +5.4% in 2023 and will accelerate to +5.9% in 2024 (+8.4% including cyclical ad spend – including almost $10 billion in political spending).
* In 2024, economic stabilization, lower inflation, digital innovation, and the return of major cyclical events (elections, international sports events) will drive ad spend +7.2% to $914 billion, +8.4% in the US. TMO ad revenues will recover by +2.2% while digital pure players ad sales will increase by +9.4%.
* After stagnating for several quarters, the global advertising sales of Google, Meta and Alibaba re-accelerated since 2Q23 to reach a year-to-date 1Q-3Q growth of +4%, +13% and +5% respectively.
* These three media owners account for a combined 49% of global advertising revenues. Outside China, the top three vendors are Google, Meta, and Amazon, capturing 80% to 90% of digital ad spend and 56% of ''total'' ad spend (the market share being lower for national consumer brands higher for small, local, direct advertisers).

==== September 2023 ====
'''''Focused on US only'''''

'''Total advertising spending re-accelerated in the second quarter of 2023. Sales were up +4.4% year-over-year, following two quarters of stagnation'''.However, only pure-play digital media vendors (Search, Social, Video) really benefited (+8.7% in 2Q23), while traditional media companies continued to struggle (-4.1% in 2Q23).The recovery in ad spend in 2Q23 was caused by a general improvement in the economy, and easier yoy comps<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-forecast-fall-2023/</ref>
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-25 104318.png|center|thumb|765x765px|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-forecast-fall-2023/]]

* As the US economy and advertising spending were both stronger than expected so far this year, and digital media is finally recovering from its 2022 woes, '''MAGNA raises its full-year ad revenue growth forecast to +5.2% for 2023 to reach $337 billion'''
* With the economic outlook improving and yoy comps becoming even easier, MAGNA maintains its growth forecast for the second half of the year. '''Total ad spend will grow by +7% to +8% in 3Q23 and 4Q23 (compared to +2.9% in first half) to bring full year growth to +5.2% (excluding cyclical), up from +4.2% in our previous update (June 2023).'''

* Around the average advertising spending growth of +4.4% in 2Q23, MAGNA observed a strong dynamic from Travel, Pharma and Retail brands, and – more surprisingly – CPG (food, drinks, personal care). The slowdown of inflation in recent months may explain this recovery in CPG brand business and marketing spending, after a difficult year 2022 when high inflation hurt the sales of premium brands.
* Looking at individual media types, digital media formats will outperform again in the next 18 months, growing by high-single digits or low double-digits. Social media formats and short-form digital video formats are finally recovering from the headwinds and disruptions that hurt ad sales in 2022, brought on by the modifications to privacy settings in the Apple environment and the rapid rise of short vertical video snacking.

==== June 2023 ====
'''Advertising spending slowed down to a halt in the first quarter of 2023 (+1.5% globally, flat in most Western markets) due to economic uncertainty and the lack of cyclical drivers.''' There are, however, some drivers mitigating the impact of economic slowdown: Ecommerce and Retail Media bringing more marketing dollars into digital advertising formats, and the counter-cyclical dynamic of some large industry verticals (Retail, Auto, Travel).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-market-june-2023-update/</ref>
[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-14 112834.png|center|thumb|683x683px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-market-june-2023-update/]]

* Magna predicts media owners advertising revenues will reach '''$842 billion this year, +4.6% growth vs. 2022 ($805bn). Deterioration of economic conditions and marketing spending in most Western markets is mitigated by stronger-than-expected growth in some markets (China, Spain), industry verticals (Retail) and media types (Retail, Social).'''
* Traditional media companies and branding formats (Television, Audio, Publishing, OOH, Cinema) are most exposed in this uncertain business climate, as some brands reduce marketing budget or prioritize performance-based digital ad formats.
* '''Digital pure-play advertising sales will grow by +8.5% to reach $577 billion dollars i.e., 69% of total ad sales''', driven by organic growth factors (ecommerce, retail media, media consumption shifts, stabilization in the data landscape).
* The strongest ad growth rate this year will come once again from India (+12.3% to $12.6bn); India is the 11th largest market. The Chinese ad market is set to recover faster than previously expected (+8.4%). At the other end of the spectrum, most Western European markets will stagnate this year: Germany, France, Italy all below +3% growth all-media, and negative for traditional media owners.
* In 2024, economic stabilization and the return of major cyclical events (US presidential elections, Paris Olympics, Euro Football championship) will re-accelerate ad spend: +6.1% to $892 billion globally, +7.3% in the US. Traditional media owners’ ad revenues will recover by +1% while digital pure players ad sales will increase by +8%.
* Social media formats will re-accelerate by +9.4% this year reach to $172 billion. The industry seems to have turned a corner in 1Q23 when Meta reported a return to YOY growth on an FX-adjusted basis after two consecutive quarters of flat or negative growth. '''Meta and other established social media vendors seem to have finally recovered from the loss of workable consumer data in the Apple ecosystem since late 2021, and they are making inroads in the monetization of the short vertical videos that have completely changed the user experience, challenging ad optimization, in less than two years.'''
* '''North America and European markets will underperform this year''' (ad market growth of +2.5% and +4.2% resp.), due to weaker economic activity (+1.6% and +0.8% real GDP growth, resp), mature media/marketing landscapes, and a lack of major cyclical driver compared to 2022. APAC (+7.1%) and Latin America (+8.7%) will grow significantly faster.

==== March 2023 ====
'''US update'''[[File:Advertising2.PNG|thumb|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/|alt=|center|571x571px]]In its new 2023 scenario, MAGNA expects little or no growth in the first half (+2% in 1Q23, +4% in 2Q23) against tough quarterly comps, followed by a recovery in the second half (+6% to +7%), as the economy solidifies, and advertising comps become much easier. Overall, full-year advertising revenues will grow by +3.4% this year to reach $326 billion (incl. CE).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/</ref>

* Search and e-commerce advertising formats (Google, Amazon, retail media networks) will continue to be driven by the expansion of e-commerce to CPG and grow by +10% (slowing down from +14% in 2022) to remain the largest advertising format ($125bn in 2023)
* Social media formats (Facebook, Instagram, Tiktok …) will re-accelerate +6% to $66bn after stalling in 2022 (+2%) due to headwinds including audience maturity and the data targeting limitations established in 2021.
* Cross-platform audio ad sales will stabilize at around $17 billion this year. Linear radio ad formats will drop -4%, while digital audio formats (audio streaming, podcasting) will rise +9%. Podcasting will help drive digital audio growth, and grow +16%, though this represents a slowdown compared to MAGNA’s previous forecast of +22%
''Magna is using the assumption of Real GDP growth of +1.3% in 2023.''

=== Grupo M ===

==== December 2024 ====
'''Key Findings:'''<ref>https://www.groupm.com/newsroom/groupms-end-of-year-global-advertising-forecast-projects-9-5-growth-in-total-2024-advertising-revenue/?utm_source=chatgpt.com</ref><ref>https://www.groupm.com/this-year-next-year-2024-global-end-of-year-forecast/</ref>

* '''Global Growth:''' Global advertising revenue is projected to grow 9.5% in 2024, reaching over $1 trillion for the first time (excluding U.S. political ads). A further 7.7% increase is expected in 2025, pushing total revenue to $1.1 trillion.
* '''Digital Dominance:''' Pure-play digital advertising remains the primary growth driver, with a projected 12.4% increase in 2024. Digital is expected to constitute 72.9% of total ad spend by 2025.
* '''Retail Media Expansion:''' Retail media is a key growth area, forecasted to hit $177.1 billion globally in 2025, surpassing TV revenue (including streaming) for the first time.
* '''Out-of-Home (OOH):''' OOH advertising has maintained its share, with digital OOH (DOOH) driving growth, projected to contribute 42% of total OOH revenue by 2025.
* '''Other Channels:'''
** Global audio revenue is expected to remain flat in 2025.
** Print advertising continues to decline due to digitization and AI disruptions.

'''Market Insights:'''

* '''Top Markets Growth:''' All top ten advertising markets are projected to grow in 2024:
** '''U.S.:''' 9.0% growth to $400.2 billion.
** '''China:''' 13.5% growth to $204.5 billion.
** '''Other Key Markets:''' UK, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, Brazil, India, and Australia

=== Dentsu Forecast ===

==== December 2024 ====
Dentsu's Global Ad Spend Forecasts project a 6.8% year-over-year increase in global advertising spend for 2024, reaching $772.4 billion. Growth is expected to continue at 5.9% in 2025, outpacing the global economy by 2.7 percentage points. Key drivers include the resurgence of digital ad spend, major sporting and political events, and stronger economic conditions in the US, UK, Brazil, and France.<ref>https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/global-ad-spend-forecasts-2025</ref>

'''Regional Insights:'''

* '''Americas:''' Expected 6.3% growth in 2025, driven by the US and Brazil, with strong digital and streaming investments.
* '''Asia-Pacific:''' Projected 5.8% growth, with AI-driven ad placements boosting digital ad spend, particularly in India.
* '''EMEA:''' Forecasted to grow by 5.0%, led by digital expansion in the UK.

'''Media Channel Trends:'''

* '''Digital:''' Forecasted to grow by 9.2% in 2025, reaching $513 billion and representing 62.7% of global ad spend. Retail media (+21.9%) and paid social (+8.7%) will drive growth, with paid search increasing by 6.7%.
* '''Programmatic Advertising:''' Expected to grow by 11.1% and represent over 70% of digital ad spend by 2027.
* '''Television:''' Marginal growth of 0.6%, with connected TV surging (+18.4%) while traditional broadcast TV declines (-2.5%).
* '''Other Media:''' Print continues to decline, while cinema and out-of-home (OOH) advertising show moderate growth (+3.2% and +3.9%).

'''Key Sectors:'''

* Finance (+6.4%), pharmaceuticals (+5.8%), and travel and transport (+5.5%) are set to see significant ad spend increases, adapting to changing consumer demands.

'''Strategic Insights:''' Dentsu emphasizes the rise of the "algorithmic era," where data-driven, algorithmically enabled ad spend will shape media strategies, reaching 79% of total ad spend by 2027. This shift will continue reshaping how brands engage with consumers, especially in digital-first environments.

==== June 2024 ====

* Global advertising spend is now forecast to grow by 5.0% in 2024 (vs. 3.3% in 2023) to reach $754.4 billion, as spend prospects improve in the UK, Germany, US, Japan, and France.<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/AdSpendMay2024</ref>
* Digital is beating previous growth expectations and is now predicted to increase by 7.4% to capture 59.6% of global spend in 2024, with double-digit growth for retail media and paid social.
* Substantial ad spend increases are forecast for retail media (+32.0% YOY, 17.7% three-year CAGR to 2026), paid social (+13.7% YOY), and programmatic (+10.9% YOY), while paid search (+7.7% YOY) and online video (+6.7% YOY) are set to maintain strong growth.
* The US presidential election alone is forecast to account for about a third ($11 billion) of the incremental ad spend in 2024.
* In the top 12 markets,** inflation-adjusted growth is projected at 2.6% in 2024 (vs. 5.2% at current prices), as media inflation shows signs of coming down but remains high, especially for TV and sought-after digital video formats such as social video.

[[File:Ad Spend Per Medium 2022-2026.png|center|thumb|712x712px|https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/ad-spend-growth-tracks-ahead-of-the-economy#:~:text=Ad%20spend%20growth%20tracks%20ahead,forecasts%20to%205.0%25%20for%202024&text=Global%20advertising%20spend%20is%20now,US%2C%20Japan%2C%20and%20France.]]
[[File:Ad Spend Per Region 2022-2026.png|center|thumb|732x732px|https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/ad-spend-growth-tracks-ahead-of-the-economy#:~:text=Ad%20spend%20growth%20tracks%20ahead,forecasts%20to%205.0%25%20for%202024&text=Global%20advertising%20spend%20is%20now,US%2C%20Japan%2C%20and%20France.]]

===== December 2023 =====
[[File:Share of global spend by channel.jpg|center|thumb|747x747px|https://info.dentsu.com/dentsuGlobalAdSpendForecasts_December2023]]

Latest forecast, covering 58 markets across the globe, is that '''advertising spend will expand by $33.0 billion in 2024 to reach $752.8 billion. This represents a 4.6% growth year-over-year for the ad industry – much faster than the pace seen in 2023 (+2.7% vs. 2022).'''<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/dentsuGlobalAdSpendForecasts_December2023</ref>

* Whilst the first quarter will be the slowest of the year (4.2%), growth is forecast to accelerate in the second quarter (4.9%) before peaking during the third (5.5%), supported by major sports events
* Global advertising spend at constant prices actually decreased by 0.7% in 2023.
* In 2024, advertising spend is forecast to represent, on average, 0.75% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the countries we track, which is consistent with the average annual ad spend/GDP indicator observed in the last 20 years (0.70%).
* In 2024, advertisers will spend, on average, $139 per capita across the world. It is about 75% more than what they spent 20 years ago ($80).
* Digital is expected to follow an upward trajectory to reach $442.6 billion in 2024, representing 58.8% of global advertising spend. Total display spend (including social and digital video) has grown by 6.4% in 2023to reach $220.7 billion. It is forecast to grow by 6.9% in 2024, and by a 6.5% three-year CAGR to 2026.
* In the digital space, retail media investments will accelerate the fastest with a 17.2% three-year CAGR, followed by paid social investments (12.3% three-year CAGR), especially in Asia-Pacific (21.0% three-year CAGR). Programmatic channels, that already account for more than 70% of digital ad spend, are also expected to continue growing by doubledigits (10.2% three-year CAGR).

==== May 2023 ====
“The adjusted for 2023 points to continued growth, albeit adjusted marginally downwards from the 3.5% predicted in the December 2022 report, in the most part due to macroeconomic factors. Exploring behind the headlines, the report also shows '''growth driven by media price inflation rather than increased advertising volume, where advertising spend at constant prices is expected to decline slightly, with –0.6% reduction year on year”'''<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/ad-spend-may-2023-pdf</ref>

* Global advertising spend expected to grow by '''3.3% in 2023 with inflation driving increase to reach US$727.9 billion'''
* Stronger growth ahead, with 2024 global advertising market now expected to increase by 4.7%, to reach US$762.5 billion, with a further 3.8% growth into 2025
* Digital is projected to settle into almost consistent incremental growth for three years, to account for around $3 in every $5 spent in advertising worldwide.
* '''Social spend is forecast to grow by a 12.8% three-year CAGR''', driven by new platforms, social commerce, and the popularity of short-form video content across platforms such as TikTok and Instagram Reels
* '''Programmatic is expected to grow at a 11.0% three-year CAGR to reach a forecast 76% share of digital spend in 2025''', a year-by-year analysis reveals its growth will slow (14.4% in 2023, 9.2% in 2024, 9.5% in 2025).
* Traditional radio is projected to decrease by 0.1% in 2023 whilst '''online radio growth is forecast at 3.6%.'''

=== Zenith Forecast ===

==== December 2023 ====
Zenith’s latest ''Advertising Expenditure Forecasts'' reports continued resilience and forecasts 5.3% global advertising growth for 2023, which is above initial expectations given a healthier than expected Q3 for major digital advertisers.<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-forecasts-4-8-growth-for-2024-marking-continued-adspend-acceleration-into-2025-and-beyond/</ref>

* '''Global adspend growth is expected at 4.8% in 2024,''' excluding U.S. political spending*, aided by events such as the Olympics as well as a combination of continued advertiser spending in support of their brands and the positive impact of Chinese brands fueling growth.
* The Americas are expected to continue as the fastest-growing region with 5.7% advertising growth in 2024. Europe continues to contribute meaningful growth (4.5%) due in part to online spending, while Asia-Pac (3.8%) remains impacted by China’s slower-than-expected recovery.
* Adspend momentum remains steadily on an upward trajectory in large part due to the strong adoption of online propositions such as retail media and social media. Online continues to lead as the fastest-growing category, accounting for 59% of overall spending in 2024 and expected to increase to 61% in 2026, with a CAGR of 4.6%.

==== June 2022 ====

* The global advertising market will continue to maintain its resilience and Zenith '''forecasts a 4.4% growth in global advertising expenditure for 2023'''<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-reports-a-consistent-global-ad-market-with-4-4-growth/</ref>
* Global adspend growth is expected to accelerate '''6.9% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025''' to account for nearly $1 trillion in advertising spending in 2025.
* '''North America''' is expected to continue to provide the biggest contribution to advertising growth between 2023 and 2025 with adspend growing US $53 billion – representing 41% of total adspend during the period. A healthy growth of '''4.3% is expected in 2023 and Zenith forecasts advertising expenditure will then jump to 9.8% in 2024 thanks to the Presidential election and the Olympics.'''
* '''Online, including Retail Media, Search and Social Media''', will continue to lead as the fastest-growing category, constituting 57% of overall adspend in 2023. Zenith forecasts an increase to 59% in '''2025, with a compounded annual growth rate of 6.8%.''' Retail Media will drive the category growth, with an estimated annual global spend of $129 billion in 2025 and an expected compounded annual growth rate of 11.5% from 2022 to 2025.
* Zenith forecasts a compounded growth rate of '''25% between 2022 and 2025 within the Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) space.'''

==== December 2022 ====
According to Zenith, the advertising industry is expected to maintain its resilience in 2023 despite current economic challenges, driven by the growth of new channels such as retail media and advertising on [https://www.appsflyer.com/glossary/svod/ Subscription Video on Demand] (SVOD) services. '''They anticipate a 4.5% growth in ad spending. Furthermore, global ad spending growth is expected to pick up pace to 7.2% in 2024''', driven by major events like the US Presidential elections and the Olympics.<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-forecasts-4-5-growth-for-2023-after-7-3-uplift-in-2022-marking-continued-healthy-growth/#:~:text=Zenith%20estimates%20that%20advertising%20on,are%20likely%20to%20follow%20suit</ref>

Online advertising, specifically Search and Social Media, is expected to continue as the fastest-growing category, making up 55% of overall ad spending in 2022 and projected to increase to 57% by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 7%.
*

*

== Advertising behavior during a recession ==
Looking back at the 3 last recessions<ref>https://www.statista.com/statistics/272443/growth-of-advertising-spending-worldwide/</ref>, it is clear ad budgets get cut during economic contractions, but the magnitude of the decline can vary depending on the severity of the recession, the specific industries and companies involved, and their advertising strategy.

Important to note that the advertising industry could recover quickly after crises, often reaching or even exceeding prior spending levels within one to two years post-economic downturn.

* COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a 3.7 percent decrease in ad spending in 2020 compared to 2019.
* During the Great Financial Crisis, advertising spending experienced a decrease of 9.5% in 2009
* During the Dot Com crisis, advertising spending saw a decrease of 4.04% in 2001
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Year'''
|'''Ad spending in million U.S. dollars'''
|'''Growth Rate'''
|-
|2024*
|884,999
|7.57%
|-
|2023*
|822,756
|5.36%
|-
|2022*
|780,870
|8.03%
|-
|2021
|722,843
|16.00%
|-
|2020
|623,116
| -3.70%
|-
|2019
|647,035
|5.43%
|-
|2018
|613,721
|6.80%
|-
|2017
|574,640
|6.08%
|-
|2016
|541,698
|5.53%
|-
|2015
|513,304
|4.60%
|-
|2014
|490,713
|5.61%
|-
|2013
|464,668
|4.87%
|-
|2012
|443,077
|4.34%
|-
|2011
|424,666
|3.92%
|-
|2010
|408,663
|7.82%
|-
|2009
|379,036
| -9.50%
|-
|2008
|418,828
| -0.12%
|-
|2007
|419,319
|5.60%
|-
|2006
|397,088
|6.56%
|-
|2005
|372,646
|5.22%
|-
|2004
|354,171
|6.61%
|-
|2003
|332,198
|3.01%
|-
|2002
|322,505
|0.10%
|-
|2001
|322,182
| -4.04%
|-
|2000
|335,733
|
|}

=== 2022 Developments ===

==== Magna ====
[[File:US-Ad-Forecast-March-2023-Option-2-768x570.png|center|thumb|580x580px|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/]]
'''Social media''' formats (Facebook, Instagram, Tiktok …) will re-accelerate +6% to $66bn after stalling in 2022 (+2%) due to headwinds including audience maturity and the data targeting limitations established in 2021.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/</ref>

==== News ====

# After years of social media being one of the most powerful engines of digital ad spending growth, 2022 saw the first meaningful decline in social’s share of digital ad spending since Insider Intelligence began tracking it in 2008. This was, in part, due to the rise of retail media and connected TV (CTV), plus a radical slowdown in growth caused by ATT.<ref>https://www.insiderintelligence.com/insights/social-media-paid-ads/</ref>

Previously expected $33.98 billion in social network video ad spending by 2022, and that figure has now been slashed to $29.82 billion—a difference of more than $4 billion. These staggering reductions are the result of a perfect storm starting in 2021—with '''Apple’s rollout of its AppTrackingTransparency framework, followed by a downturn in the global economy due to persistent inflation, soaring interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and the Russia-Ukraine war.'''
[[File:Screenshot 2024-02-07 111654.png|center|thumb|547x547px]]2. Over the full year, UK social media spend, which is a sub-category of the online display section in the report, increased by 4.9%. The overall category grew at 10% in 2022 and is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2023. Total ad spend grew 8.8% in 2022.

* Sharp and sustained falls in social media spend – the first time this has been recorded in the UK – are likely to have been instigated by r'''educed advertising activity among the SMEs who comprise a ‘long tail’ of ad volume on social platforms and whose margins are under incredible stress as inflation''' bites
* The decline in the latter half of 2022 also coincides with a period of unrest within the wider social media ad landscape.<ref>https://www.marketingweek.com/social-media-ad-spend-drops/</ref>

3. Digital ad revenue in the U.S. rose 10.8% to $209.7 billion last year as marketers continued to spend in online channels despite slower economic growth, market uncertainty and mass layoffs at big tech companies, according to a new report from the Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. But the increase was smaller than the 35% leap seen in 2021. <ref>https://www.wsj.com/articles/digital-ad-revenue-grew-again-in-2022-but-much-more-slowly-41485957</ref>

In addition to broader economic uncertainty, which led some companies to draw back on marketing budgets in the last part of 2022, the '''online ad business has been grappling with evolving privacy regulation and increased consumer privacy protections from companies such as Apple Inc., which some industry players say have made it harder to target messages and measure their efficacy.'''

Social media ad revenue grew 3.6% in 2022, a slowdown in growth from 39.3% a year earlier, according to the new IAB report, as privacy protections affected companies in the sector in particular. <blockquote>“Social media, of all the different kinds of [media] types that we looked at, was the most adversely affected in 2022” as a result of tech platform policies, Mr. Cohen said. </blockquote>

==== Public Companies ====

=== 2008-2009 Company Comparison ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Company
! colspan="2" |Revenue
! colspan="2" |EPS
! colspan="2" |Margin
!Comments 2009
|-
!
!2008
!2009
!2008
!2009
!2008
!2009
!
|-
|Alphabet
|
|
|
|
|
|
|To be updated here. Work in [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LW-eTnCNNbzEpsZEBrjQBcWBbNvqSvKK7VcEMuUEjqM/edit?gid=724201715#gid=724201715&range=A1 Google Sheets]
|-
|WPP<ref>https://www.wpp.com/-/media/project/wpp/files/imported-reports/2009/ar09_complete.pdf</ref>
|7,476.9
|8,684.3
|37.6p
|35.3p
|
|
|
* Pressure continued on the Group’s Advertising and Media Investment Management businesses, although the pressure seen by Media Investment Management in quarters two and three eased significantly in the final quarter.
* The pressure continued on the Group’s Advertising and Media Investment Management businesses, with '''clients continuing to seek greater and greater effectiveness and efficiencies, in markets where there is little inflation and, as a result, little pricing power and an over-supply of old and new media inventory.'''
* In constant currencies''', Advertising and Media Investment Management revenues fell by 8.6%, with like-for-like revenues down almost the same at 8.5%.''' Although cost actions were taken by the year end, the impact of revenue declines resulted in the combined annual operating margin of this sector falling by over 3.0 margin points.
|-
|Publicis<ref>https://www.publicisgroupe.com/sites/default/files/press-release/20100217_Annual_Results_2009_final.pdf</ref>
|4,704
|4,524
|2.12
|1.90
|16.7%
|15.0%
|
* As expected, after the advertising market reached its low point in 2009 during the summer, the decline, which had been gathering pace since mid-2008, began to slow, and then stopped. The fourth quarter brought an improvement, confirming the first signs of recovery.
* While the market overall was down by 12% to 14%, Publicis managed to limit the decrease to 6.5%, thereby gaining market share. Tight control over our costs and headcount; services with added value; these are some of the reasons why we were able to achieve an operating margin which remains one of the highest on the market despite the crisis.
|-
|Interpublic Group<ref>https://investors.interpublic.com/static-files/bcbb3af5-6514-4138-bc49-f67bd7800ae5</ref>
|$6,962.7
|$6,027.6
|$0.52
|$0.19
|8.5%
|5.7%
|
* Revenues were down 10.8% organically compared to the previous period. This was primarily due to the impact of the recession on marketers’ willingness to spend.
|}

=== 2008-2009 News and Commentary ===

# Us total measured advertising expenditures fell 12.3% in 2009 from 2008 levels, to $125.3 billion, according to data released by Kantar Media<ref>https://techcrunch.com/2010/03/17/advertising-expenditures-2009/</ref>

[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 192603.png|alt=|center|thumb|511x511px|https://techcrunch.com/2010/03/17/advertising-expenditures-2009/]]
2. U.S. ad spending declined nine percent in 2009, according to preliminary figures released today by The Nielsen Company. Spending fell an estimated $11.6 billion to a total of $117 billion last year. The figures continue a trend of at least six straight quarters of negative growth in the ad industry<ref>https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf</ref>

There was some notable activity among product categories outside the top 10. Investment Services not only saw ad spending fall 14% to $1.3 billion in 2009, but the category also had about 1000 fewer advertisers in 2009 compared to 2008. On the other hand, spending by web-based advertisers climbed 32% to $1.1 billion, paced by dramatic spending increases by Hulu and Bing.<blockquote>“Fourth quarter ad spending was down just two percent year-over-year, and that helped soften the full-year decline,” said Terrie Brennan, senior VP for new business development at The Nielsen Company. “In fact, most of the top advertisers showed increased spending late in the year. These are encouraging signs for an ad market that’s still trying to stop the bleeding.”</blockquote>
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 193459.png|center|thumb|553x553px|https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 193508.png|center|thumb|602x602px|https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf]]

== References ==

Advertising Industry

2025-01-13T16:33:43Z

MagaNH6: /* Dentsu Forecast */

[[Industries|Industries Overview]]

[[Advertising Industry: Search]]

[[Advertising Industry: Social Media]]

Forum Topic: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/advertising-markets/92

== Methodology ==
Short description methodolgy

==== Data Sources ====

* Magna
* Zenith
* Tiniuti
* Dentsu
* S4

== Developments ==

=== Tinuiti ===

==== Q4 2023 ====
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth<ref name=":1" />
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0" />
|-
|Meta
|13%
| -3%
|16%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|8%
| -5%
|14%
|-
|''Instagram''
|27%
| 2%
|24%
|-
|TikTok
|64%
| 14%
|44%
|-
|Google
|17%
|9%
|8%
|-
|Amazon
|17%
|19%
| -2%
|-
|Walmart
|62%
| 34%
|21%
|}
==== Q3 2023 ====
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth<ref name=":1">https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dZ1kFgBmP-B16_EBlikJUSciXDfGmEa2/view</ref>
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0" />
|-
|Meta
|19%
| -19%
|46%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|16%
| -20
|46%
|-
|''Instagram''
|25%
| -11%
|41%
|-
|TikTok
|12%
| -8%
|21%
|-
|Google
|13%
|4%
|8%
|-
|Amazon
|14%
|8%
|5%
|-
|Walmart
|55%
| 33%
|17%
|}
==== Q2 2023 ====
Most of the major digital ad platforms saw an acceleration in spending growth in Q2 2023, with Instagram leading the way with a 16-point improvement in growth compared to a quarter earlier.<ref>https://drive.google.com/file/d/1soM8MQV1aQD8pQxkM225AR714JtniPzb/view</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0">https://drive.google.com/file/d/1soM8MQV1aQD8pQxkM225AR714JtniPzb/view</ref>
|-
|Meta
|9%
| -25%
|44%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|''2%''
| ''-25%''
|''37%''
|-
|''Instagram''
|''31%''
| ''-29%''
|''84%''
|-
|TikTok
|11%
| -4%
|16%
|-
|Google
|11%
|0%
|11%
|-
|Amazon
|8%
|3%
|5%
|-
|Walmart
|39%
| -4%
|45%
|}
'''Meta Platforms'''

* Meta ad spend rose 9% year-over-year versus a flat growth rate in Q1 2023.
* Meta impressions rose 44% year-over-year(Q1 2023:+42%), helped by Reels.
* Meta Platforms CPM fell 25% year-over-year(Q1 2023:-30%).

'''Facebook'''

* Facebook ad spend rose 2% year-over-year, the first positive growth in the last four quarters(Q1 2023:-4%)
* Facebook CPM declined 25% year over year(Q1 2023: -32%)
* Facebook impression rose 37%(Q1 2023: 42%)

'''Instagram'''

* Instagram impression rose 84% year-over-year(Q1 2023: 45%)
* Ad spend growth on Instagram more than doubled to 31% year-over-year from 15% in Q1 2023, aided by Instagram Reels and Explore Grid Home placements.
* Instagram CPM declined 29% year-over-year(Q1 2023: -20%).
* Instagram Reels CPC was 13% lower than that of Instagram Feeds, compared to 19% in Q1 2023.

'''TikTok'''

* Tik tok as spend rose to 11%
* TikTok CPM declined 4% year-over-year(Q1 2023:+44%).
* TikTok impression rose 16% in Q2 from a 13% decline in Q1.

== Advertising Forecast ==

=== Disclaimers ===
Do advertising agencies like Magna and Zenith have a positive bias?
=== Magna Forecast ===

==== December 2024 ====
'''Total Market Overview'''

* '''Global Ad Revenue:''' In 2024, media owners' ad revenues reached '''$933 billion''', growing by '''+10.3%''', marking the strongest growth in 25 years (excluding post-COVID recovery in 2021).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/</ref>
* '''Digital Pure Players (DPP):''' Ad sales increased by '''+13%''' to $659 billion, driven by '''Search/Commerce (+12%)''', '''Short-Form Video (+12%)''', and '''Social Media (+18%)'''.
* '''Traditional Media Owners (TMO):''' Revenues grew '''+4%''' to $274 billion, the best performance since 2010, driven by cyclical events (e.g., US elections, Summer Olympics) and '''+12% growth in non-linear ad sales (e.g., ad-supported streaming)'''.
* '''Regional Performance:''' Dynamic markets included the US and France (+12%), India and the UK (+11%), and Brazil (+14%). Growth was slower in China (+7%) and Germany (+6%).
* '''Key Verticals:''' Automotive, Finance, and CPG/FMCG were among the fastest-growing industries, while Travel showed signs of slowing.

'''Digital Advertising (DPP)'''

* '''Drivers:'''
** Growth fueled by ecommerce competition (e.g., Temu and Shein targeting Europe).
** The rise of retail media networks, which now account for $144 billion.
** Improved monetization of short-form vertical videos on social platforms like Instagram and YouTube.
** AI-powered algorithms enhancing ad placement and effectiveness.
* '''2025 Forecast:''' DPP ad sales are expected to grow by '''+9.4%''' to reach '''$721 billion''', with strong contributions from '''Retail Search (+13%)''' and '''Social Media (+13%)'''

'''Market Leaders'''

* '''The Big Three (Google, Meta, Amazon):'''
** Combined ad revenues grew '''+11% (Google)''', '''+22% (Meta)''', and '''+21% (Amazon)''', increasing their market share to '''51% globally''' and '''61% outside China'''.
** Benefited from innovations like short-form video monetization and ecommerce-driven advertising.

'''2025 Outlook'''

* '''Global Ad Revenue:''' Forecast to grow by '''+6.1%''' to $990 billion, driven by '''DPP (+9%)''', while TMO revenues are expected to decline by '''-2%''' due to a lack of major cyclical events.
* '''Key Trends:'''
** Stabilization of the European economy may boost ad spending in key markets like Germany and the UK.
** CPI inflation is slowing to '''+2%-3%''', enhancing consumer purchasing power and ad spending.
** Organic growth drivers, including AI and ecommerce, will continue to support digital ad growth.

[[File:Screenshot 2025-01-13 095407.png|center|thumb|780x780px|https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/]]
[[File:Screenshot 2025-01-13 095429.png|center|thumb|771x771px|https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/]]

==== September 2024 ====
<nowiki>**</nowiki> US only Update

Based on MAGNA’s analysis of media companies’ financial reports, '''total US ad revenues grew by +11.0% year-over-year in the second quarter. That was in line with first quarter, and in line with – slightly stronger – than MAGNA’s projection''' (+10.4%).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/political-and-olympic-advertising-boost-strong-us-ad-market/</ref>

* '''Digital pure players ad sales, rose by approx. +16% YOY''', as both Meta and Google credited new AI tools – optimizing content creation or insertion – as driving incremental spending from brands. The Big Three (Meta, Google, Amazon) reported YOY ad sales growth rates ranging +15% to +18% for the quarter.

'''MAGNA is increasing its forecast for second half, non-cyclical ad spend growth to +7.4% (previously: +6.4%).''' The half-year YOY growth rate was always expected to slow down in the second half of 2024 due to very imbalanced comps in 2023 (weak first half, strong second half).

* '''For the full-year 2024 MAGNA is now expecting advertising revenues to grow by +11.4% to $377bn (+8.9% excluding cyclical).''' +8.9% would be the strongest non-cyclical growth rate in more than twenty years, if excluding the post-COVID recovery in 2021.
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-21 101530.png|center|thumb|748x748px|https://magnaglobal.com/political-and-olympic-advertising-boost-strong-us-ad-market/]]

==== June 2024 ====
MAGNA is raising its 2024 growth forecast following a '''stronger-than-expected ad market in the first quarter (+12%)''' and an improvement in the economic outlook (real GDP growth +3.2%, US +2.5%).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/</ref>

* MAGNA’s “Global Ad Forecast” predicts media owners net advertising revenues (NAR) will reach $927 billion this year, growing +10.0% over 2023. This is a significant acceleration on the global growth recorded in 2023 (+6.4%). Neutralizing the impact of cyclical events in 2023 and 2024, the normalized acceleration is still real but more modest: non-cyclical ad revenues grew by +7.5% in 2023 and will grow by +8.7% in 2024.

* 1Q24 was an even stronger than expected. Year-over-Year growth average +12% in key markets, +17% in Spain, +15% in France, and Germany. Quarterly growth rates will gradually slow as comps become tougher in the second half, but this strong start of the year, coupled with a stronger economic outlook led us to raise the full year 2024 forecast for almost every individual market monitor, bringing the expected global growth from +6.4% in December, to +10% now. The full-year ad revenues of traditional media owners are now forecast to grow by +3% instead of +2%, and the ad sales of digital pure players are now expected to grow by +13% (previously +9.4%).
* '''In the first quarter of 2024, the leading global digital vendors reported the strongest growth rates in more than two years.''' Based on MAGNA’s analysis of financial report, global Search ad sales grew by +16% year-over-year, pure-play video by +21% and Social Media by +28% year-over-year. Quarterly growth rates are bound to slow down as comps will gradually get tougher, but MAGNA anticipates double-digit growth for all key digital formats and vendors this year.
* Full-year 2023, Google, Meta, and Amazon organic ad revenues increased by +6%, +16% and +24% respectively. '''The big three now attract a combined 60% of total advertising revenues outside China''' ($417 billion out of $698 billion), up from 57% in 2021-2022. Including China – where they don’t operate – they control 49% of global ad sales.
* US Media owners advertising revenues are forecast to reach an all-time high of $374 billion this year, growing +10.7% over 2023. This is 1.5 percentage points above our previous full-year forecast (+9.2% in our March 2024 update), following a stronger-than-expected start of the year (+12% in the first quarter) and an improvement in the macro-economic outlook – with the latest GDP growth forecasts raised to a robust +2.5%. The macro-economic factor offsets slightly lower cyclical expectations, as our political advertising forecast is reduced following by weaker-than-expected fundraising in the first few months of the year. We still expect the 2024 election campaigns to generate $9 billion dollars of incremental advertising revenues for US media owners this year, an increase of +10% vs 2020.
* The US remains the largest and most intense ad market in the world with advertisers spending $1,100 per consumer in 2024; it’s 8 times more than the global average ($160), ten times more than China ($110) and a hundred times more than India ($10). 

'''Global Forecasts'''
[[File:Table-3-Global-Ad-Forecast-for-2024.png|center|thumb|683x683px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/]]
'''US Forecasts'''
[[File:Table-1-US-Ad-Forecast.png|center|thumb|722x722px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/]]

==== March 2024 ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101337.png|center|thumb|738x738px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101001.png|center|thumb|734x734px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]

Based on MAGNA’s analysis of media companies’ financials''',''' '''non-cyclical advertising revenues grew by +9.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023''' e., the strongest quarterly growth in almost two years, bringing full-year 2023 ad market growth to +5.7%.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/digital-momentum-leads-ad-market-forecast-to-9/</ref>

Because of an improving macro-economic outlook, the momentum of digital media and streaming, and the impact of cyclical events, '''MAGNA anticipates more growth in 2024''': '''total media owners ad revenues will increase by +9.2% to reach $369 billion'''. That’s nearly one percentage point above the previous forecast (+8.4% in Dec. 2023).

'''Advertising spend around major cyclical events will drive approx. $10 billion of incremental ad sales as the 2024 election cycle will generate $9 billion''' of additional ad revenue for media owners (+13% vs the 2020 cycle). '''This will add 2.5 percentage points to the non-cyclical growth rate''', bringing total revenue growth from +6.7% (non-cyclical ad sales) to +9.2% (total ad sales). The impact will be even greater for some media categories like Local TV (excluding political -4%, including political +26%).

* Digital pure players (DPP) dominating Search, Retail, Social and Short-Form Video formats will once again capture most of the growth, with '''DPP ad sales growing by +11.7% to $260 billion''' (previous forecast +10.5%).
* '''Short form, pure player digital video''' ad sales (primarily YouTube and Twitch), will grow by +12% this year to reach $22 billion.
* '''Social media sales will feel the wind at their back and will rise +14% to $81 billion.''' Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming an increasingly important tool used by advertisers to set up, run, and optimize their social media campaigns. MAGNA looks for this to drive additional sales in 2024, especially for small businesses setting up their first campaigns.
* '''Search/Retail ad sales will increase by nearly +12% to $146 billion in 2024''' and will also benefit from increasing AI functionality in helping brands set up and run new advertising campaigns.
* '''Audio ad sales''' (terrestrial and satellite radio, audio streaming, and podcasting) will be stable at around $16 billion in 2024. Digital audio usage and ad sales continue to develop but growth rates are maturing (+6%), which means it barely offsets the erosion of linear radio (-3%)
* '''Long-Form Streaming advertising will expand by +13% to reach $10 billion milestone.'''

[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101835.png|center|thumb|745x745px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 102009.png|center|thumb|750x750px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]

==== December 2023 ====

[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-03 162449.png|center|thumb|722x722px|https://magnaglobal.com/digital-advertising-reaccelerated-in-2023-major-events-will-fuel-traditional-media-in-2024/]]

MAGNA’s “Global Ad Forecast” predicts that global media owners '''net advertising revenues (NAR) will reach $853 billion this year, +5.5%''' above the 2022 level, and will grow by +7.2% in 2024.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/digital-advertising-reaccelerated-in-2023-major-events-will-fuel-traditional-media-in-2024/</ref>

* Advertising spending accelerated and grew by +6.3% yoy in the second half of 2023 following a weaker first half (+4.7%) to average +5.5 growth full year.
* '''Digital Pure-Play media owners (DPP) ad revenue g'''rew by +10.5% to $587bn (69% of total ad sales). DPP ad sales are driven by organic growth factors incl. the rise of ecommerce, retail media
* The US market grew +3.6% to $338 billion this year (National TV -6%, Local TV -22%, Audio -4%, Publishing -7%, OOH +2%, Search +10%, Social +14%). Non-cyclical ad revenue is up +5.4% in 2023 and will accelerate to +5.9% in 2024 (+8.4% including cyclical ad spend – including almost $10 billion in political spending).
* In 2024, economic stabilization, lower inflation, digital innovation, and the return of major cyclical events (elections, international sports events) will drive ad spend +7.2% to $914 billion, +8.4% in the US. TMO ad revenues will recover by +2.2% while digital pure players ad sales will increase by +9.4%.
* After stagnating for several quarters, the global advertising sales of Google, Meta and Alibaba re-accelerated since 2Q23 to reach a year-to-date 1Q-3Q growth of +4%, +13% and +5% respectively.
* These three media owners account for a combined 49% of global advertising revenues. Outside China, the top three vendors are Google, Meta, and Amazon, capturing 80% to 90% of digital ad spend and 56% of ''total'' ad spend (the market share being lower for national consumer brands higher for small, local, direct advertisers).

==== September 2023 ====
'''''Focused on US only'''''

'''Total advertising spending re-accelerated in the second quarter of 2023. Sales were up +4.4% year-over-year, following two quarters of stagnation'''.However, only pure-play digital media vendors (Search, Social, Video) really benefited (+8.7% in 2Q23), while traditional media companies continued to struggle (-4.1% in 2Q23).The recovery in ad spend in 2Q23 was caused by a general improvement in the economy, and easier yoy comps<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-forecast-fall-2023/</ref>
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-25 104318.png|center|thumb|765x765px|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-forecast-fall-2023/]]

* As the US economy and advertising spending were both stronger than expected so far this year, and digital media is finally recovering from its 2022 woes, '''MAGNA raises its full-year ad revenue growth forecast to +5.2% for 2023 to reach $337 billion'''
* With the economic outlook improving and yoy comps becoming even easier, MAGNA maintains its growth forecast for the second half of the year. '''Total ad spend will grow by +7% to +8% in 3Q23 and 4Q23 (compared to +2.9% in first half) to bring full year growth to +5.2% (excluding cyclical), up from +4.2% in our previous update (June 2023).'''

* Around the average advertising spending growth of +4.4% in 2Q23, MAGNA observed a strong dynamic from Travel, Pharma and Retail brands, and – more surprisingly – CPG (food, drinks, personal care). The slowdown of inflation in recent months may explain this recovery in CPG brand business and marketing spending, after a difficult year 2022 when high inflation hurt the sales of premium brands.
* Looking at individual media types, digital media formats will outperform again in the next 18 months, growing by high-single digits or low double-digits. Social media formats and short-form digital video formats are finally recovering from the headwinds and disruptions that hurt ad sales in 2022, brought on by the modifications to privacy settings in the Apple environment and the rapid rise of short vertical video snacking.

==== June 2023 ====
'''Advertising spending slowed down to a halt in the first quarter of 2023 (+1.5% globally, flat in most Western markets) due to economic uncertainty and the lack of cyclical drivers.''' There are, however, some drivers mitigating the impact of economic slowdown: Ecommerce and Retail Media bringing more marketing dollars into digital advertising formats, and the counter-cyclical dynamic of some large industry verticals (Retail, Auto, Travel).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-market-june-2023-update/</ref>
[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-14 112834.png|center|thumb|683x683px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-market-june-2023-update/]]

* Magna predicts media owners advertising revenues will reach '''$842 billion this year, +4.6% growth vs. 2022 ($805bn). Deterioration of economic conditions and marketing spending in most Western markets is mitigated by stronger-than-expected growth in some markets (China, Spain), industry verticals (Retail) and media types (Retail, Social).'''
* Traditional media companies and branding formats (Television, Audio, Publishing, OOH, Cinema) are most exposed in this uncertain business climate, as some brands reduce marketing budget or prioritize performance-based digital ad formats.
* '''Digital pure-play advertising sales will grow by +8.5% to reach $577 billion dollars i.e., 69% of total ad sales''', driven by organic growth factors (ecommerce, retail media, media consumption shifts, stabilization in the data landscape).
* The strongest ad growth rate this year will come once again from India (+12.3% to $12.6bn); India is the 11th largest market. The Chinese ad market is set to recover faster than previously expected (+8.4%). At the other end of the spectrum, most Western European markets will stagnate this year: Germany, France, Italy all below +3% growth all-media, and negative for traditional media owners.
* In 2024, economic stabilization and the return of major cyclical events (US presidential elections, Paris Olympics, Euro Football championship) will re-accelerate ad spend: +6.1% to $892 billion globally, +7.3% in the US. Traditional media owners’ ad revenues will recover by +1% while digital pure players ad sales will increase by +8%.
* Social media formats will re-accelerate by +9.4% this year reach to $172 billion. The industry seems to have turned a corner in 1Q23 when Meta reported a return to YOY growth on an FX-adjusted basis after two consecutive quarters of flat or negative growth. '''Meta and other established social media vendors seem to have finally recovered from the loss of workable consumer data in the Apple ecosystem since late 2021, and they are making inroads in the monetization of the short vertical videos that have completely changed the user experience, challenging ad optimization, in less than two years.'''
* '''North America and European markets will underperform this year''' (ad market growth of +2.5% and +4.2% resp.), due to weaker economic activity (+1.6% and +0.8% real GDP growth, resp), mature media/marketing landscapes, and a lack of major cyclical driver compared to 2022. APAC (+7.1%) and Latin America (+8.7%) will grow significantly faster.

==== March 2023 ====
'''US update'''[[File:Advertising2.PNG|thumb|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/|alt=|center|571x571px]]In its new 2023 scenario, MAGNA expects little or no growth in the first half (+2% in 1Q23, +4% in 2Q23) against tough quarterly comps, followed by a recovery in the second half (+6% to +7%), as the economy solidifies, and advertising comps become much easier. Overall, full-year advertising revenues will grow by +3.4% this year to reach $326 billion (incl. CE).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/</ref>

* Search and e-commerce advertising formats (Google, Amazon, retail media networks) will continue to be driven by the expansion of e-commerce to CPG and grow by +10% (slowing down from +14% in 2022) to remain the largest advertising format ($125bn in 2023)
* Social media formats (Facebook, Instagram, Tiktok …) will re-accelerate +6% to $66bn after stalling in 2022 (+2%) due to headwinds including audience maturity and the data targeting limitations established in 2021.
* Cross-platform audio ad sales will stabilize at around $17 billion this year. Linear radio ad formats will drop -4%, while digital audio formats (audio streaming, podcasting) will rise +9%. Podcasting will help drive digital audio growth, and grow +16%, though this represents a slowdown compared to MAGNA’s previous forecast of +22%
''Magna is using the assumption of Real GDP growth of +1.3% in 2023.''

=== Dentsu Forecast ===

==== December 2024 ====
Dentsu's Global Ad Spend Forecasts project a 6.8% year-over-year increase in global advertising spend for 2024, reaching $772.4 billion. Growth is expected to continue at 5.9% in 2025, outpacing the global economy by 2.7 percentage points. Key drivers include the resurgence of digital ad spend, major sporting and political events, and stronger economic conditions in the US, UK, Brazil, and France.<ref>https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/global-ad-spend-forecasts-2025</ref>

'''Regional Insights:'''

* '''Americas:''' Expected 6.3% growth in 2025, driven by the US and Brazil, with strong digital and streaming investments.
* '''Asia-Pacific:''' Projected 5.8% growth, with AI-driven ad placements boosting digital ad spend, particularly in India.
* '''EMEA:''' Forecasted to grow by 5.0%, led by digital expansion in the UK.

'''Media Channel Trends:'''

* '''Digital:''' Forecasted to grow by 9.2% in 2025, reaching $513 billion and representing 62.7% of global ad spend. Retail media (+21.9%) and paid social (+8.7%) will drive growth, with paid search increasing by 6.7%.
* '''Programmatic Advertising:''' Expected to grow by 11.1% and represent over 70% of digital ad spend by 2027.
* '''Television:''' Marginal growth of 0.6%, with connected TV surging (+18.4%) while traditional broadcast TV declines (-2.5%).
* '''Other Media:''' Print continues to decline, while cinema and out-of-home (OOH) advertising show moderate growth (+3.2% and +3.9%).

'''Key Sectors:'''

* Finance (+6.4%), pharmaceuticals (+5.8%), and travel and transport (+5.5%) are set to see significant ad spend increases, adapting to changing consumer demands.

'''Strategic Insights:''' Dentsu emphasizes the rise of the "algorithmic era," where data-driven, algorithmically enabled ad spend will shape media strategies, reaching 79% of total ad spend by 2027. This shift will continue reshaping how brands engage with consumers, especially in digital-first environments.

==== June 2024 ====

* Global advertising spend is now forecast to grow by 5.0% in 2024 (vs. 3.3% in 2023) to reach $754.4 billion, as spend prospects improve in the UK, Germany, US, Japan, and France.<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/AdSpendMay2024</ref>
* Digital is beating previous growth expectations and is now predicted to increase by 7.4% to capture 59.6% of global spend in 2024, with double-digit growth for retail media and paid social.
* Substantial ad spend increases are forecast for retail media (+32.0% YOY, 17.7% three-year CAGR to 2026), paid social (+13.7% YOY), and programmatic (+10.9% YOY), while paid search (+7.7% YOY) and online video (+6.7% YOY) are set to maintain strong growth.
* The US presidential election alone is forecast to account for about a third ($11 billion) of the incremental ad spend in 2024.
* In the top 12 markets,** inflation-adjusted growth is projected at 2.6% in 2024 (vs. 5.2% at current prices), as media inflation shows signs of coming down but remains high, especially for TV and sought-after digital video formats such as social video.

[[File:Ad Spend Per Medium 2022-2026.png|center|thumb|712x712px|https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/ad-spend-growth-tracks-ahead-of-the-economy#:~:text=Ad%20spend%20growth%20tracks%20ahead,forecasts%20to%205.0%25%20for%202024&text=Global%20advertising%20spend%20is%20now,US%2C%20Japan%2C%20and%20France.]]
[[File:Ad Spend Per Region 2022-2026.png|center|thumb|732x732px|https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/ad-spend-growth-tracks-ahead-of-the-economy#:~:text=Ad%20spend%20growth%20tracks%20ahead,forecasts%20to%205.0%25%20for%202024&text=Global%20advertising%20spend%20is%20now,US%2C%20Japan%2C%20and%20France.]]

===== December 2023 =====
[[File:Share of global spend by channel.jpg|center|thumb|747x747px|https://info.dentsu.com/dentsuGlobalAdSpendForecasts_December2023]]

Latest forecast, covering 58 markets across the globe, is that '''advertising spend will expand by $33.0 billion in 2024 to reach $752.8 billion. This represents a 4.6% growth year-over-year for the ad industry – much faster than the pace seen in 2023 (+2.7% vs. 2022).'''<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/dentsuGlobalAdSpendForecasts_December2023</ref>

* Whilst the first quarter will be the slowest of the year (4.2%), growth is forecast to accelerate in the second quarter (4.9%) before peaking during the third (5.5%), supported by major sports events
* Global advertising spend at constant prices actually decreased by 0.7% in 2023.
* In 2024, advertising spend is forecast to represent, on average, 0.75% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the countries we track, which is consistent with the average annual ad spend/GDP indicator observed in the last 20 years (0.70%).
* In 2024, advertisers will spend, on average, $139 per capita across the world. It is about 75% more than what they spent 20 years ago ($80).
* Digital is expected to follow an upward trajectory to reach $442.6 billion in 2024, representing 58.8% of global advertising spend. Total display spend (including social and digital video) has grown by 6.4% in 2023to reach $220.7 billion. It is forecast to grow by 6.9% in 2024, and by a 6.5% three-year CAGR to 2026.
* In the digital space, retail media investments will accelerate the fastest with a 17.2% three-year CAGR, followed by paid social investments (12.3% three-year CAGR), especially in Asia-Pacific (21.0% three-year CAGR). Programmatic channels, that already account for more than 70% of digital ad spend, are also expected to continue growing by doubledigits (10.2% three-year CAGR).

==== May 2023 ====
“The adjusted for 2023 points to continued growth, albeit adjusted marginally downwards from the 3.5% predicted in the December 2022 report, in the most part due to macroeconomic factors. Exploring behind the headlines, the report also shows '''growth driven by media price inflation rather than increased advertising volume, where advertising spend at constant prices is expected to decline slightly, with –0.6% reduction year on year”'''<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/ad-spend-may-2023-pdf</ref>

* Global advertising spend expected to grow by '''3.3% in 2023 with inflation driving increase to reach US$727.9 billion'''
* Stronger growth ahead, with 2024 global advertising market now expected to increase by 4.7%, to reach US$762.5 billion, with a further 3.8% growth into 2025
* Digital is projected to settle into almost consistent incremental growth for three years, to account for around $3 in every $5 spent in advertising worldwide.
* '''Social spend is forecast to grow by a 12.8% three-year CAGR''', driven by new platforms, social commerce, and the popularity of short-form video content across platforms such as TikTok and Instagram Reels
* '''Programmatic is expected to grow at a 11.0% three-year CAGR to reach a forecast 76% share of digital spend in 2025''', a year-by-year analysis reveals its growth will slow (14.4% in 2023, 9.2% in 2024, 9.5% in 2025).
* Traditional radio is projected to decrease by 0.1% in 2023 whilst '''online radio growth is forecast at 3.6%.'''

=== Zenith Forecast ===

==== December 2023 ====
Zenith’s latest ''Advertising Expenditure Forecasts'' reports continued resilience and forecasts 5.3% global advertising growth for 2023, which is above initial expectations given a healthier than expected Q3 for major digital advertisers.<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-forecasts-4-8-growth-for-2024-marking-continued-adspend-acceleration-into-2025-and-beyond/</ref>

* '''Global adspend growth is expected at 4.8% in 2024,''' excluding U.S. political spending*, aided by events such as the Olympics as well as a combination of continued advertiser spending in support of their brands and the positive impact of Chinese brands fueling growth.
* The Americas are expected to continue as the fastest-growing region with 5.7% advertising growth in 2024. Europe continues to contribute meaningful growth (4.5%) due in part to online spending, while Asia-Pac (3.8%) remains impacted by China’s slower-than-expected recovery.
* Adspend momentum remains steadily on an upward trajectory in large part due to the strong adoption of online propositions such as retail media and social media. Online continues to lead as the fastest-growing category, accounting for 59% of overall spending in 2024 and expected to increase to 61% in 2026, with a CAGR of 4.6%.

==== June 2022 ====

* The global advertising market will continue to maintain its resilience and Zenith '''forecasts a 4.4% growth in global advertising expenditure for 2023'''<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-reports-a-consistent-global-ad-market-with-4-4-growth/</ref>
* Global adspend growth is expected to accelerate '''6.9% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025''' to account for nearly $1 trillion in advertising spending in 2025.
* '''North America''' is expected to continue to provide the biggest contribution to advertising growth between 2023 and 2025 with adspend growing US $53 billion – representing 41% of total adspend during the period. A healthy growth of '''4.3% is expected in 2023 and Zenith forecasts advertising expenditure will then jump to 9.8% in 2024 thanks to the Presidential election and the Olympics.'''
* '''Online, including Retail Media, Search and Social Media''', will continue to lead as the fastest-growing category, constituting 57% of overall adspend in 2023. Zenith forecasts an increase to 59% in '''2025, with a compounded annual growth rate of 6.8%.''' Retail Media will drive the category growth, with an estimated annual global spend of $129 billion in 2025 and an expected compounded annual growth rate of 11.5% from 2022 to 2025.
* Zenith forecasts a compounded growth rate of '''25% between 2022 and 2025 within the Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) space.'''

==== December 2022 ====
According to Zenith, the advertising industry is expected to maintain its resilience in 2023 despite current economic challenges, driven by the growth of new channels such as retail media and advertising on [https://www.appsflyer.com/glossary/svod/ Subscription Video on Demand] (SVOD) services. '''They anticipate a 4.5% growth in ad spending. Furthermore, global ad spending growth is expected to pick up pace to 7.2% in 2024''', driven by major events like the US Presidential elections and the Olympics.<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-forecasts-4-5-growth-for-2023-after-7-3-uplift-in-2022-marking-continued-healthy-growth/#:~:text=Zenith%20estimates%20that%20advertising%20on,are%20likely%20to%20follow%20suit</ref>

Online advertising, specifically Search and Social Media, is expected to continue as the fastest-growing category, making up 55% of overall ad spending in 2022 and projected to increase to 57% by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 7%.
*

*

== Advertising behavior during a recession ==
Looking back at the 3 last recessions<ref>https://www.statista.com/statistics/272443/growth-of-advertising-spending-worldwide/</ref>, it is clear ad budgets get cut during economic contractions, but the magnitude of the decline can vary depending on the severity of the recession, the specific industries and companies involved, and their advertising strategy.

Important to note that the advertising industry could recover quickly after crises, often reaching or even exceeding prior spending levels within one to two years post-economic downturn.

* COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a 3.7 percent decrease in ad spending in 2020 compared to 2019.
* During the Great Financial Crisis, advertising spending experienced a decrease of 9.5% in 2009
* During the Dot Com crisis, advertising spending saw a decrease of 4.04% in 2001
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Year'''
|'''Ad spending in million U.S. dollars'''
|'''Growth Rate'''
|-
|2024*
|884,999
|7.57%
|-
|2023*
|822,756
|5.36%
|-
|2022*
|780,870
|8.03%
|-
|2021
|722,843
|16.00%
|-
|2020
|623,116
| -3.70%
|-
|2019
|647,035
|5.43%
|-
|2018
|613,721
|6.80%
|-
|2017
|574,640
|6.08%
|-
|2016
|541,698
|5.53%
|-
|2015
|513,304
|4.60%
|-
|2014
|490,713
|5.61%
|-
|2013
|464,668
|4.87%
|-
|2012
|443,077
|4.34%
|-
|2011
|424,666
|3.92%
|-
|2010
|408,663
|7.82%
|-
|2009
|379,036
| -9.50%
|-
|2008
|418,828
| -0.12%
|-
|2007
|419,319
|5.60%
|-
|2006
|397,088
|6.56%
|-
|2005
|372,646
|5.22%
|-
|2004
|354,171
|6.61%
|-
|2003
|332,198
|3.01%
|-
|2002
|322,505
|0.10%
|-
|2001
|322,182
| -4.04%
|-
|2000
|335,733
|
|}

=== 2022 Developments ===

==== Magna ====
[[File:US-Ad-Forecast-March-2023-Option-2-768x570.png|center|thumb|580x580px|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/]]
'''Social media''' formats (Facebook, Instagram, Tiktok …) will re-accelerate +6% to $66bn after stalling in 2022 (+2%) due to headwinds including audience maturity and the data targeting limitations established in 2021.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/</ref>

==== News ====

# After years of social media being one of the most powerful engines of digital ad spending growth, 2022 saw the first meaningful decline in social’s share of digital ad spending since Insider Intelligence began tracking it in 2008. This was, in part, due to the rise of retail media and connected TV (CTV), plus a radical slowdown in growth caused by ATT.<ref>https://www.insiderintelligence.com/insights/social-media-paid-ads/</ref>

Previously expected $33.98 billion in social network video ad spending by 2022, and that figure has now been slashed to $29.82 billion—a difference of more than $4 billion. These staggering reductions are the result of a perfect storm starting in 2021—with '''Apple’s rollout of its AppTrackingTransparency framework, followed by a downturn in the global economy due to persistent inflation, soaring interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and the Russia-Ukraine war.'''
[[File:Screenshot 2024-02-07 111654.png|center|thumb|547x547px]]2. Over the full year, UK social media spend, which is a sub-category of the online display section in the report, increased by 4.9%. The overall category grew at 10% in 2022 and is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2023. Total ad spend grew 8.8% in 2022.

* Sharp and sustained falls in social media spend – the first time this has been recorded in the UK – are likely to have been instigated by r'''educed advertising activity among the SMEs who comprise a ‘long tail’ of ad volume on social platforms and whose margins are under incredible stress as inflation''' bites
* The decline in the latter half of 2022 also coincides with a period of unrest within the wider social media ad landscape.<ref>https://www.marketingweek.com/social-media-ad-spend-drops/</ref>

3. Digital ad revenue in the U.S. rose 10.8% to $209.7 billion last year as marketers continued to spend in online channels despite slower economic growth, market uncertainty and mass layoffs at big tech companies, according to a new report from the Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. But the increase was smaller than the 35% leap seen in 2021. <ref>https://www.wsj.com/articles/digital-ad-revenue-grew-again-in-2022-but-much-more-slowly-41485957</ref>

In addition to broader economic uncertainty, which led some companies to draw back on marketing budgets in the last part of 2022, the '''online ad business has been grappling with evolving privacy regulation and increased consumer privacy protections from companies such as Apple Inc., which some industry players say have made it harder to target messages and measure their efficacy.'''

Social media ad revenue grew 3.6% in 2022, a slowdown in growth from 39.3% a year earlier, according to the new IAB report, as privacy protections affected companies in the sector in particular. <blockquote>“Social media, of all the different kinds of [media] types that we looked at, was the most adversely affected in 2022” as a result of tech platform policies, Mr. Cohen said. </blockquote>

==== Public Companies ====

=== 2008-2009 Company Comparison ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Company
! colspan="2" |Revenue
! colspan="2" |EPS
! colspan="2" |Margin
!Comments 2009
|-
!
!2008
!2009
!2008
!2009
!2008
!2009
!
|-
|Alphabet
|
|
|
|
|
|
|To be updated here. Work in [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LW-eTnCNNbzEpsZEBrjQBcWBbNvqSvKK7VcEMuUEjqM/edit?gid=724201715#gid=724201715&range=A1 Google Sheets]
|-
|WPP<ref>https://www.wpp.com/-/media/project/wpp/files/imported-reports/2009/ar09_complete.pdf</ref>
|7,476.9
|8,684.3
|37.6p
|35.3p
|
|
|
* Pressure continued on the Group’s Advertising and Media Investment Management businesses, although the pressure seen by Media Investment Management in quarters two and three eased significantly in the final quarter.
* The pressure continued on the Group’s Advertising and Media Investment Management businesses, with '''clients continuing to seek greater and greater effectiveness and efficiencies, in markets where there is little inflation and, as a result, little pricing power and an over-supply of old and new media inventory.'''
* In constant currencies''', Advertising and Media Investment Management revenues fell by 8.6%, with like-for-like revenues down almost the same at 8.5%.''' Although cost actions were taken by the year end, the impact of revenue declines resulted in the combined annual operating margin of this sector falling by over 3.0 margin points.
|-
|Publicis<ref>https://www.publicisgroupe.com/sites/default/files/press-release/20100217_Annual_Results_2009_final.pdf</ref>
|4,704
|4,524
|2.12
|1.90
|16.7%
|15.0%
|
* As expected, after the advertising market reached its low point in 2009 during the summer, the decline, which had been gathering pace since mid-2008, began to slow, and then stopped. The fourth quarter brought an improvement, confirming the first signs of recovery.
* While the market overall was down by 12% to 14%, Publicis managed to limit the decrease to 6.5%, thereby gaining market share. Tight control over our costs and headcount; services with added value; these are some of the reasons why we were able to achieve an operating margin which remains one of the highest on the market despite the crisis.
|-
|Interpublic Group<ref>https://investors.interpublic.com/static-files/bcbb3af5-6514-4138-bc49-f67bd7800ae5</ref>
|$6,962.7
|$6,027.6
|$0.52
|$0.19
|8.5%
|5.7%
|
* Revenues were down 10.8% organically compared to the previous period. This was primarily due to the impact of the recession on marketers’ willingness to spend.
|}

=== 2008-2009 News and Commentary ===

# Us total measured advertising expenditures fell 12.3% in 2009 from 2008 levels, to $125.3 billion, according to data released by Kantar Media<ref>https://techcrunch.com/2010/03/17/advertising-expenditures-2009/</ref>

[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 192603.png|alt=|center|thumb|511x511px|https://techcrunch.com/2010/03/17/advertising-expenditures-2009/]]
2. U.S. ad spending declined nine percent in 2009, according to preliminary figures released today by The Nielsen Company. Spending fell an estimated $11.6 billion to a total of $117 billion last year. The figures continue a trend of at least six straight quarters of negative growth in the ad industry<ref>https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf</ref>

There was some notable activity among product categories outside the top 10. Investment Services not only saw ad spending fall 14% to $1.3 billion in 2009, but the category also had about 1000 fewer advertisers in 2009 compared to 2008. On the other hand, spending by web-based advertisers climbed 32% to $1.1 billion, paced by dramatic spending increases by Hulu and Bing.<blockquote>“Fourth quarter ad spending was down just two percent year-over-year, and that helped soften the full-year decline,” said Terrie Brennan, senior VP for new business development at The Nielsen Company. “In fact, most of the top advertisers showed increased spending late in the year. These are encouraging signs for an ad market that’s still trying to stop the bleeding.”</blockquote>
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 193459.png|center|thumb|553x553px|https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 193508.png|center|thumb|602x602px|https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf]]

== References ==

Advertising Industry

2025-01-13T16:14:12Z

MagaNH6:

[[Industries|Industries Overview]]

[[Advertising Industry: Search]]

[[Advertising Industry: Social Media]]

Forum Topic: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/advertising-markets/92

== Methodology ==
Short description methodolgy

==== Data Sources ====

* Magna
* Zenith
* Tiniuti
* Dentsu
* S4

== Developments ==

=== Tinuiti ===

==== Q4 2023 ====
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth<ref name=":1" />
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0" />
|-
|Meta
|13%
| -3%
|16%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|8%
| -5%
|14%
|-
|''Instagram''
|27%
| 2%
|24%
|-
|TikTok
|64%
| 14%
|44%
|-
|Google
|17%
|9%
|8%
|-
|Amazon
|17%
|19%
| -2%
|-
|Walmart
|62%
| 34%
|21%
|}
==== Q3 2023 ====
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth<ref name=":1">https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dZ1kFgBmP-B16_EBlikJUSciXDfGmEa2/view</ref>
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0" />
|-
|Meta
|19%
| -19%
|46%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|16%
| -20
|46%
|-
|''Instagram''
|25%
| -11%
|41%
|-
|TikTok
|12%
| -8%
|21%
|-
|Google
|13%
|4%
|8%
|-
|Amazon
|14%
|8%
|5%
|-
|Walmart
|55%
| 33%
|17%
|}
==== Q2 2023 ====
Most of the major digital ad platforms saw an acceleration in spending growth in Q2 2023, with Instagram leading the way with a 16-point improvement in growth compared to a quarter earlier.<ref>https://drive.google.com/file/d/1soM8MQV1aQD8pQxkM225AR714JtniPzb/view</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
!Y/Y Growth
!'''Ad Spend'''
!'''CPM/CPC'''
!'''Impressions/Clicks'''<ref name=":0">https://drive.google.com/file/d/1soM8MQV1aQD8pQxkM225AR714JtniPzb/view</ref>
|-
|Meta
|9%
| -25%
|44%
|-
|''Fecebook''
|''2%''
| ''-25%''
|''37%''
|-
|''Instagram''
|''31%''
| ''-29%''
|''84%''
|-
|TikTok
|11%
| -4%
|16%
|-
|Google
|11%
|0%
|11%
|-
|Amazon
|8%
|3%
|5%
|-
|Walmart
|39%
| -4%
|45%
|}
'''Meta Platforms'''

* Meta ad spend rose 9% year-over-year versus a flat growth rate in Q1 2023.
* Meta impressions rose 44% year-over-year(Q1 2023:+42%), helped by Reels.
* Meta Platforms CPM fell 25% year-over-year(Q1 2023:-30%).

'''Facebook'''

* Facebook ad spend rose 2% year-over-year, the first positive growth in the last four quarters(Q1 2023:-4%)
* Facebook CPM declined 25% year over year(Q1 2023: -32%)
* Facebook impression rose 37%(Q1 2023: 42%)

'''Instagram'''

* Instagram impression rose 84% year-over-year(Q1 2023: 45%)
* Ad spend growth on Instagram more than doubled to 31% year-over-year from 15% in Q1 2023, aided by Instagram Reels and Explore Grid Home placements.
* Instagram CPM declined 29% year-over-year(Q1 2023: -20%).
* Instagram Reels CPC was 13% lower than that of Instagram Feeds, compared to 19% in Q1 2023.

'''TikTok'''

* Tik tok as spend rose to 11%
* TikTok CPM declined 4% year-over-year(Q1 2023:+44%).
* TikTok impression rose 16% in Q2 from a 13% decline in Q1.

== Advertising Forecast ==

=== Disclaimers ===
Do advertising agencies like Magna and Zenith have a positive bias?
=== Magna Forecast ===

==== December 2024 ====
'''Total Market Overview'''

* '''Global Ad Revenue:''' In 2024, media owners' ad revenues reached '''$933 billion''', growing by '''+10.3%''', marking the strongest growth in 25 years (excluding post-COVID recovery in 2021).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/</ref>
* '''Digital Pure Players (DPP):''' Ad sales increased by '''+13%''' to $659 billion, driven by '''Search/Commerce (+12%)''', '''Short-Form Video (+12%)''', and '''Social Media (+18%)'''.
* '''Traditional Media Owners (TMO):''' Revenues grew '''+4%''' to $274 billion, the best performance since 2010, driven by cyclical events (e.g., US elections, Summer Olympics) and '''+12% growth in non-linear ad sales (e.g., ad-supported streaming)'''.
* '''Regional Performance:''' Dynamic markets included the US and France (+12%), India and the UK (+11%), and Brazil (+14%). Growth was slower in China (+7%) and Germany (+6%).
* '''Key Verticals:''' Automotive, Finance, and CPG/FMCG were among the fastest-growing industries, while Travel showed signs of slowing.

'''Digital Advertising (DPP)'''

* '''Drivers:'''
** Growth fueled by ecommerce competition (e.g., Temu and Shein targeting Europe).
** The rise of retail media networks, which now account for $144 billion.
** Improved monetization of short-form vertical videos on social platforms like Instagram and YouTube.
** AI-powered algorithms enhancing ad placement and effectiveness.
* '''2025 Forecast:''' DPP ad sales are expected to grow by '''+9.4%''' to reach '''$721 billion''', with strong contributions from '''Retail Search (+13%)''' and '''Social Media (+13%)'''

'''Market Leaders'''

* '''The Big Three (Google, Meta, Amazon):'''
** Combined ad revenues grew '''+11% (Google)''', '''+22% (Meta)''', and '''+21% (Amazon)''', increasing their market share to '''51% globally''' and '''61% outside China'''.
** Benefited from innovations like short-form video monetization and ecommerce-driven advertising.

'''2025 Outlook'''

* '''Global Ad Revenue:''' Forecast to grow by '''+6.1%''' to $990 billion, driven by '''DPP (+9%)''', while TMO revenues are expected to decline by '''-2%''' due to a lack of major cyclical events.
* '''Key Trends:'''
** Stabilization of the European economy may boost ad spending in key markets like Germany and the UK.
** CPI inflation is slowing to '''+2%-3%''', enhancing consumer purchasing power and ad spending.
** Organic growth drivers, including AI and ecommerce, will continue to support digital ad growth.

[[File:Screenshot 2025-01-13 095407.png|center|thumb|780x780px|https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/]]
[[File:Screenshot 2025-01-13 095429.png|center|thumb|771x771px|https://magnaglobal.com/ad-forecast-media-innovation-to-propel-the-global-ad-market/]]

==== September 2024 ====
<nowiki>**</nowiki> US only Update

Based on MAGNA’s analysis of media companies’ financial reports, '''total US ad revenues grew by +11.0% year-over-year in the second quarter. That was in line with first quarter, and in line with – slightly stronger – than MAGNA’s projection''' (+10.4%).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/political-and-olympic-advertising-boost-strong-us-ad-market/</ref>

* '''Digital pure players ad sales, rose by approx. +16% YOY''', as both Meta and Google credited new AI tools – optimizing content creation or insertion – as driving incremental spending from brands. The Big Three (Meta, Google, Amazon) reported YOY ad sales growth rates ranging +15% to +18% for the quarter.

'''MAGNA is increasing its forecast for second half, non-cyclical ad spend growth to +7.4% (previously: +6.4%).''' The half-year YOY growth rate was always expected to slow down in the second half of 2024 due to very imbalanced comps in 2023 (weak first half, strong second half).

* '''For the full-year 2024 MAGNA is now expecting advertising revenues to grow by +11.4% to $377bn (+8.9% excluding cyclical).''' +8.9% would be the strongest non-cyclical growth rate in more than twenty years, if excluding the post-COVID recovery in 2021.
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-21 101530.png|center|thumb|748x748px|https://magnaglobal.com/political-and-olympic-advertising-boost-strong-us-ad-market/]]

==== June 2024 ====
MAGNA is raising its 2024 growth forecast following a '''stronger-than-expected ad market in the first quarter (+12%)''' and an improvement in the economic outlook (real GDP growth +3.2%, US +2.5%).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/</ref>

* MAGNA’s “Global Ad Forecast” predicts media owners net advertising revenues (NAR) will reach $927 billion this year, growing +10.0% over 2023. This is a significant acceleration on the global growth recorded in 2023 (+6.4%). Neutralizing the impact of cyclical events in 2023 and 2024, the normalized acceleration is still real but more modest: non-cyclical ad revenues grew by +7.5% in 2023 and will grow by +8.7% in 2024.

* 1Q24 was an even stronger than expected. Year-over-Year growth average +12% in key markets, +17% in Spain, +15% in France, and Germany. Quarterly growth rates will gradually slow as comps become tougher in the second half, but this strong start of the year, coupled with a stronger economic outlook led us to raise the full year 2024 forecast for almost every individual market monitor, bringing the expected global growth from +6.4% in December, to +10% now. The full-year ad revenues of traditional media owners are now forecast to grow by +3% instead of +2%, and the ad sales of digital pure players are now expected to grow by +13% (previously +9.4%).
* '''In the first quarter of 2024, the leading global digital vendors reported the strongest growth rates in more than two years.''' Based on MAGNA’s analysis of financial report, global Search ad sales grew by +16% year-over-year, pure-play video by +21% and Social Media by +28% year-over-year. Quarterly growth rates are bound to slow down as comps will gradually get tougher, but MAGNA anticipates double-digit growth for all key digital formats and vendors this year.
* Full-year 2023, Google, Meta, and Amazon organic ad revenues increased by +6%, +16% and +24% respectively. '''The big three now attract a combined 60% of total advertising revenues outside China''' ($417 billion out of $698 billion), up from 57% in 2021-2022. Including China – where they don’t operate – they control 49% of global ad sales.
* US Media owners advertising revenues are forecast to reach an all-time high of $374 billion this year, growing +10.7% over 2023. This is 1.5 percentage points above our previous full-year forecast (+9.2% in our March 2024 update), following a stronger-than-expected start of the year (+12% in the first quarter) and an improvement in the macro-economic outlook – with the latest GDP growth forecasts raised to a robust +2.5%. The macro-economic factor offsets slightly lower cyclical expectations, as our political advertising forecast is reduced following by weaker-than-expected fundraising in the first few months of the year. We still expect the 2024 election campaigns to generate $9 billion dollars of incremental advertising revenues for US media owners this year, an increase of +10% vs 2020.
* The US remains the largest and most intense ad market in the world with advertisers spending $1,100 per consumer in 2024; it’s 8 times more than the global average ($160), ten times more than China ($110) and a hundred times more than India ($10). 

'''Global Forecasts'''
[[File:Table-3-Global-Ad-Forecast-for-2024.png|center|thumb|683x683px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/]]
'''US Forecasts'''
[[File:Table-1-US-Ad-Forecast.png|center|thumb|722x722px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/]]

==== March 2024 ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101337.png|center|thumb|738x738px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101001.png|center|thumb|734x734px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]

Based on MAGNA’s analysis of media companies’ financials''',''' '''non-cyclical advertising revenues grew by +9.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023''' e., the strongest quarterly growth in almost two years, bringing full-year 2023 ad market growth to +5.7%.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/digital-momentum-leads-ad-market-forecast-to-9/</ref>

Because of an improving macro-economic outlook, the momentum of digital media and streaming, and the impact of cyclical events, '''MAGNA anticipates more growth in 2024''': '''total media owners ad revenues will increase by +9.2% to reach $369 billion'''. That’s nearly one percentage point above the previous forecast (+8.4% in Dec. 2023).

'''Advertising spend around major cyclical events will drive approx. $10 billion of incremental ad sales as the 2024 election cycle will generate $9 billion''' of additional ad revenue for media owners (+13% vs the 2020 cycle). '''This will add 2.5 percentage points to the non-cyclical growth rate''', bringing total revenue growth from +6.7% (non-cyclical ad sales) to +9.2% (total ad sales). The impact will be even greater for some media categories like Local TV (excluding political -4%, including political +26%).

* Digital pure players (DPP) dominating Search, Retail, Social and Short-Form Video formats will once again capture most of the growth, with '''DPP ad sales growing by +11.7% to $260 billion''' (previous forecast +10.5%).
* '''Short form, pure player digital video''' ad sales (primarily YouTube and Twitch), will grow by +12% this year to reach $22 billion.
* '''Social media sales will feel the wind at their back and will rise +14% to $81 billion.''' Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming an increasingly important tool used by advertisers to set up, run, and optimize their social media campaigns. MAGNA looks for this to drive additional sales in 2024, especially for small businesses setting up their first campaigns.
* '''Search/Retail ad sales will increase by nearly +12% to $146 billion in 2024''' and will also benefit from increasing AI functionality in helping brands set up and run new advertising campaigns.
* '''Audio ad sales''' (terrestrial and satellite radio, audio streaming, and podcasting) will be stable at around $16 billion in 2024. Digital audio usage and ad sales continue to develop but growth rates are maturing (+6%), which means it barely offsets the erosion of linear radio (-3%)
* '''Long-Form Streaming advertising will expand by +13% to reach $10 billion milestone.'''

[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101835.png|center|thumb|745x745px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 102009.png|center|thumb|750x750px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]]

==== December 2023 ====

[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-03 162449.png|center|thumb|722x722px|https://magnaglobal.com/digital-advertising-reaccelerated-in-2023-major-events-will-fuel-traditional-media-in-2024/]]

MAGNA’s “Global Ad Forecast” predicts that global media owners '''net advertising revenues (NAR) will reach $853 billion this year, +5.5%''' above the 2022 level, and will grow by +7.2% in 2024.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/digital-advertising-reaccelerated-in-2023-major-events-will-fuel-traditional-media-in-2024/</ref>

* Advertising spending accelerated and grew by +6.3% yoy in the second half of 2023 following a weaker first half (+4.7%) to average +5.5 growth full year.
* '''Digital Pure-Play media owners (DPP) ad revenue g'''rew by +10.5% to $587bn (69% of total ad sales). DPP ad sales are driven by organic growth factors incl. the rise of ecommerce, retail media
* The US market grew +3.6% to $338 billion this year (National TV -6%, Local TV -22%, Audio -4%, Publishing -7%, OOH +2%, Search +10%, Social +14%). Non-cyclical ad revenue is up +5.4% in 2023 and will accelerate to +5.9% in 2024 (+8.4% including cyclical ad spend – including almost $10 billion in political spending).
* In 2024, economic stabilization, lower inflation, digital innovation, and the return of major cyclical events (elections, international sports events) will drive ad spend +7.2% to $914 billion, +8.4% in the US. TMO ad revenues will recover by +2.2% while digital pure players ad sales will increase by +9.4%.
* After stagnating for several quarters, the global advertising sales of Google, Meta and Alibaba re-accelerated since 2Q23 to reach a year-to-date 1Q-3Q growth of +4%, +13% and +5% respectively.
* These three media owners account for a combined 49% of global advertising revenues. Outside China, the top three vendors are Google, Meta, and Amazon, capturing 80% to 90% of digital ad spend and 56% of ''total'' ad spend (the market share being lower for national consumer brands higher for small, local, direct advertisers).

==== September 2023 ====
'''''Focused on US only'''''

'''Total advertising spending re-accelerated in the second quarter of 2023. Sales were up +4.4% year-over-year, following two quarters of stagnation'''.However, only pure-play digital media vendors (Search, Social, Video) really benefited (+8.7% in 2Q23), while traditional media companies continued to struggle (-4.1% in 2Q23).The recovery in ad spend in 2Q23 was caused by a general improvement in the economy, and easier yoy comps<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-forecast-fall-2023/</ref>
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-25 104318.png|center|thumb|765x765px|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-forecast-fall-2023/]]

* As the US economy and advertising spending were both stronger than expected so far this year, and digital media is finally recovering from its 2022 woes, '''MAGNA raises its full-year ad revenue growth forecast to +5.2% for 2023 to reach $337 billion'''
* With the economic outlook improving and yoy comps becoming even easier, MAGNA maintains its growth forecast for the second half of the year. '''Total ad spend will grow by +7% to +8% in 3Q23 and 4Q23 (compared to +2.9% in first half) to bring full year growth to +5.2% (excluding cyclical), up from +4.2% in our previous update (June 2023).'''

* Around the average advertising spending growth of +4.4% in 2Q23, MAGNA observed a strong dynamic from Travel, Pharma and Retail brands, and – more surprisingly – CPG (food, drinks, personal care). The slowdown of inflation in recent months may explain this recovery in CPG brand business and marketing spending, after a difficult year 2022 when high inflation hurt the sales of premium brands.
* Looking at individual media types, digital media formats will outperform again in the next 18 months, growing by high-single digits or low double-digits. Social media formats and short-form digital video formats are finally recovering from the headwinds and disruptions that hurt ad sales in 2022, brought on by the modifications to privacy settings in the Apple environment and the rapid rise of short vertical video snacking.

==== June 2023 ====
'''Advertising spending slowed down to a halt in the first quarter of 2023 (+1.5% globally, flat in most Western markets) due to economic uncertainty and the lack of cyclical drivers.''' There are, however, some drivers mitigating the impact of economic slowdown: Ecommerce and Retail Media bringing more marketing dollars into digital advertising formats, and the counter-cyclical dynamic of some large industry verticals (Retail, Auto, Travel).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-market-june-2023-update/</ref>
[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-14 112834.png|center|thumb|683x683px|https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-market-june-2023-update/]]

* Magna predicts media owners advertising revenues will reach '''$842 billion this year, +4.6% growth vs. 2022 ($805bn). Deterioration of economic conditions and marketing spending in most Western markets is mitigated by stronger-than-expected growth in some markets (China, Spain), industry verticals (Retail) and media types (Retail, Social).'''
* Traditional media companies and branding formats (Television, Audio, Publishing, OOH, Cinema) are most exposed in this uncertain business climate, as some brands reduce marketing budget or prioritize performance-based digital ad formats.
* '''Digital pure-play advertising sales will grow by +8.5% to reach $577 billion dollars i.e., 69% of total ad sales''', driven by organic growth factors (ecommerce, retail media, media consumption shifts, stabilization in the data landscape).
* The strongest ad growth rate this year will come once again from India (+12.3% to $12.6bn); India is the 11th largest market. The Chinese ad market is set to recover faster than previously expected (+8.4%). At the other end of the spectrum, most Western European markets will stagnate this year: Germany, France, Italy all below +3% growth all-media, and negative for traditional media owners.
* In 2024, economic stabilization and the return of major cyclical events (US presidential elections, Paris Olympics, Euro Football championship) will re-accelerate ad spend: +6.1% to $892 billion globally, +7.3% in the US. Traditional media owners’ ad revenues will recover by +1% while digital pure players ad sales will increase by +8%.
* Social media formats will re-accelerate by +9.4% this year reach to $172 billion. The industry seems to have turned a corner in 1Q23 when Meta reported a return to YOY growth on an FX-adjusted basis after two consecutive quarters of flat or negative growth. '''Meta and other established social media vendors seem to have finally recovered from the loss of workable consumer data in the Apple ecosystem since late 2021, and they are making inroads in the monetization of the short vertical videos that have completely changed the user experience, challenging ad optimization, in less than two years.'''
* '''North America and European markets will underperform this year''' (ad market growth of +2.5% and +4.2% resp.), due to weaker economic activity (+1.6% and +0.8% real GDP growth, resp), mature media/marketing landscapes, and a lack of major cyclical driver compared to 2022. APAC (+7.1%) and Latin America (+8.7%) will grow significantly faster.

==== March 2023 ====
'''US update'''[[File:Advertising2.PNG|thumb|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/|alt=|center|571x571px]]In its new 2023 scenario, MAGNA expects little or no growth in the first half (+2% in 1Q23, +4% in 2Q23) against tough quarterly comps, followed by a recovery in the second half (+6% to +7%), as the economy solidifies, and advertising comps become much easier. Overall, full-year advertising revenues will grow by +3.4% this year to reach $326 billion (incl. CE).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/</ref>

* Search and e-commerce advertising formats (Google, Amazon, retail media networks) will continue to be driven by the expansion of e-commerce to CPG and grow by +10% (slowing down from +14% in 2022) to remain the largest advertising format ($125bn in 2023)
* Social media formats (Facebook, Instagram, Tiktok …) will re-accelerate +6% to $66bn after stalling in 2022 (+2%) due to headwinds including audience maturity and the data targeting limitations established in 2021.
* Cross-platform audio ad sales will stabilize at around $17 billion this year. Linear radio ad formats will drop -4%, while digital audio formats (audio streaming, podcasting) will rise +9%. Podcasting will help drive digital audio growth, and grow +16%, though this represents a slowdown compared to MAGNA’s previous forecast of +22%
''Magna is using the assumption of Real GDP growth of +1.3% in 2023.''

=== Dentsu Forecast ===

==== June 2024 ====

* Global advertising spend is now forecast to grow by 5.0% in 2024 (vs. 3.3% in 2023) to reach $754.4 billion, as spend prospects improve in the UK, Germany, US, Japan, and France.<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/AdSpendMay2024</ref>
* Digital is beating previous growth expectations and is now predicted to increase by 7.4% to capture 59.6% of global spend in 2024, with double-digit growth for retail media and paid social.
* Substantial ad spend increases are forecast for retail media (+32.0% YOY, 17.7% three-year CAGR to 2026), paid social (+13.7% YOY), and programmatic (+10.9% YOY), while paid search (+7.7% YOY) and online video (+6.7% YOY) are set to maintain strong growth.
* The US presidential election alone is forecast to account for about a third ($11 billion) of the incremental ad spend in 2024.
* In the top 12 markets,** inflation-adjusted growth is projected at 2.6% in 2024 (vs. 5.2% at current prices), as media inflation shows signs of coming down but remains high, especially for TV and sought-after digital video formats such as social video.

[[File:Ad Spend Per Medium 2022-2026.png|center|thumb|712x712px|https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/ad-spend-growth-tracks-ahead-of-the-economy#:~:text=Ad%20spend%20growth%20tracks%20ahead,forecasts%20to%205.0%25%20for%202024&text=Global%20advertising%20spend%20is%20now,US%2C%20Japan%2C%20and%20France.]]
[[File:Ad Spend Per Region 2022-2026.png|center|thumb|732x732px|https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/ad-spend-growth-tracks-ahead-of-the-economy#:~:text=Ad%20spend%20growth%20tracks%20ahead,forecasts%20to%205.0%25%20for%202024&text=Global%20advertising%20spend%20is%20now,US%2C%20Japan%2C%20and%20France.]]

===== December 2023 =====
[[File:Share of global spend by channel.jpg|center|thumb|747x747px|https://info.dentsu.com/dentsuGlobalAdSpendForecasts_December2023]]

Latest forecast, covering 58 markets across the globe, is that '''advertising spend will expand by $33.0 billion in 2024 to reach $752.8 billion. This represents a 4.6% growth year-over-year for the ad industry – much faster than the pace seen in 2023 (+2.7% vs. 2022).'''<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/dentsuGlobalAdSpendForecasts_December2023</ref>

* Whilst the first quarter will be the slowest of the year (4.2%), growth is forecast to accelerate in the second quarter (4.9%) before peaking during the third (5.5%), supported by major sports events
* Global advertising spend at constant prices actually decreased by 0.7% in 2023.
* In 2024, advertising spend is forecast to represent, on average, 0.75% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the countries we track, which is consistent with the average annual ad spend/GDP indicator observed in the last 20 years (0.70%).
* In 2024, advertisers will spend, on average, $139 per capita across the world. It is about 75% more than what they spent 20 years ago ($80).
* Digital is expected to follow an upward trajectory to reach $442.6 billion in 2024, representing 58.8% of global advertising spend. Total display spend (including social and digital video) has grown by 6.4% in 2023to reach $220.7 billion. It is forecast to grow by 6.9% in 2024, and by a 6.5% three-year CAGR to 2026.
* In the digital space, retail media investments will accelerate the fastest with a 17.2% three-year CAGR, followed by paid social investments (12.3% three-year CAGR), especially in Asia-Pacific (21.0% three-year CAGR). Programmatic channels, that already account for more than 70% of digital ad spend, are also expected to continue growing by doubledigits (10.2% three-year CAGR).

==== May 2023 ====
“The adjusted for 2023 points to continued growth, albeit adjusted marginally downwards from the 3.5% predicted in the December 2022 report, in the most part due to macroeconomic factors. Exploring behind the headlines, the report also shows '''growth driven by media price inflation rather than increased advertising volume, where advertising spend at constant prices is expected to decline slightly, with –0.6% reduction year on year”'''<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/ad-spend-may-2023-pdf</ref>

* Global advertising spend expected to grow by '''3.3% in 2023 with inflation driving increase to reach US$727.9 billion'''
* Stronger growth ahead, with 2024 global advertising market now expected to increase by 4.7%, to reach US$762.5 billion, with a further 3.8% growth into 2025
* Digital is projected to settle into almost consistent incremental growth for three years, to account for around $3 in every $5 spent in advertising worldwide.
* '''Social spend is forecast to grow by a 12.8% three-year CAGR''', driven by new platforms, social commerce, and the popularity of short-form video content across platforms such as TikTok and Instagram Reels
* '''Programmatic is expected to grow at a 11.0% three-year CAGR to reach a forecast 76% share of digital spend in 2025''', a year-by-year analysis reveals its growth will slow (14.4% in 2023, 9.2% in 2024, 9.5% in 2025).
* Traditional radio is projected to decrease by 0.1% in 2023 whilst '''online radio growth is forecast at 3.6%.'''

=== Zenith Forecast ===

==== December 2023 ====
Zenith’s latest ''Advertising Expenditure Forecasts'' reports continued resilience and forecasts 5.3% global advertising growth for 2023, which is above initial expectations given a healthier than expected Q3 for major digital advertisers.<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-forecasts-4-8-growth-for-2024-marking-continued-adspend-acceleration-into-2025-and-beyond/</ref>

* '''Global adspend growth is expected at 4.8% in 2024,''' excluding U.S. political spending*, aided by events such as the Olympics as well as a combination of continued advertiser spending in support of their brands and the positive impact of Chinese brands fueling growth.
* The Americas are expected to continue as the fastest-growing region with 5.7% advertising growth in 2024. Europe continues to contribute meaningful growth (4.5%) due in part to online spending, while Asia-Pac (3.8%) remains impacted by China’s slower-than-expected recovery.
* Adspend momentum remains steadily on an upward trajectory in large part due to the strong adoption of online propositions such as retail media and social media. Online continues to lead as the fastest-growing category, accounting for 59% of overall spending in 2024 and expected to increase to 61% in 2026, with a CAGR of 4.6%.

==== June 2022 ====

* The global advertising market will continue to maintain its resilience and Zenith '''forecasts a 4.4% growth in global advertising expenditure for 2023'''<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-reports-a-consistent-global-ad-market-with-4-4-growth/</ref>
* Global adspend growth is expected to accelerate '''6.9% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025''' to account for nearly $1 trillion in advertising spending in 2025.
* '''North America''' is expected to continue to provide the biggest contribution to advertising growth between 2023 and 2025 with adspend growing US $53 billion – representing 41% of total adspend during the period. A healthy growth of '''4.3% is expected in 2023 and Zenith forecasts advertising expenditure will then jump to 9.8% in 2024 thanks to the Presidential election and the Olympics.'''
* '''Online, including Retail Media, Search and Social Media''', will continue to lead as the fastest-growing category, constituting 57% of overall adspend in 2023. Zenith forecasts an increase to 59% in '''2025, with a compounded annual growth rate of 6.8%.''' Retail Media will drive the category growth, with an estimated annual global spend of $129 billion in 2025 and an expected compounded annual growth rate of 11.5% from 2022 to 2025.
* Zenith forecasts a compounded growth rate of '''25% between 2022 and 2025 within the Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) space.'''

==== December 2022 ====
According to Zenith, the advertising industry is expected to maintain its resilience in 2023 despite current economic challenges, driven by the growth of new channels such as retail media and advertising on [https://www.appsflyer.com/glossary/svod/ Subscription Video on Demand] (SVOD) services. '''They anticipate a 4.5% growth in ad spending. Furthermore, global ad spending growth is expected to pick up pace to 7.2% in 2024''', driven by major events like the US Presidential elections and the Olympics.<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-forecasts-4-5-growth-for-2023-after-7-3-uplift-in-2022-marking-continued-healthy-growth/#:~:text=Zenith%20estimates%20that%20advertising%20on,are%20likely%20to%20follow%20suit</ref>

Online advertising, specifically Search and Social Media, is expected to continue as the fastest-growing category, making up 55% of overall ad spending in 2022 and projected to increase to 57% by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 7%.
*

*

== Advertising behavior during a recession ==
Looking back at the 3 last recessions<ref>https://www.statista.com/statistics/272443/growth-of-advertising-spending-worldwide/</ref>, it is clear ad budgets get cut during economic contractions, but the magnitude of the decline can vary depending on the severity of the recession, the specific industries and companies involved, and their advertising strategy.

Important to note that the advertising industry could recover quickly after crises, often reaching or even exceeding prior spending levels within one to two years post-economic downturn.

* COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a 3.7 percent decrease in ad spending in 2020 compared to 2019.
* During the Great Financial Crisis, advertising spending experienced a decrease of 9.5% in 2009
* During the Dot Com crisis, advertising spending saw a decrease of 4.04% in 2001
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Year'''
|'''Ad spending in million U.S. dollars'''
|'''Growth Rate'''
|-
|2024*
|884,999
|7.57%
|-
|2023*
|822,756
|5.36%
|-
|2022*
|780,870
|8.03%
|-
|2021
|722,843
|16.00%
|-
|2020
|623,116
| -3.70%
|-
|2019
|647,035
|5.43%
|-
|2018
|613,721
|6.80%
|-
|2017
|574,640
|6.08%
|-
|2016
|541,698
|5.53%
|-
|2015
|513,304
|4.60%
|-
|2014
|490,713
|5.61%
|-
|2013
|464,668
|4.87%
|-
|2012
|443,077
|4.34%
|-
|2011
|424,666
|3.92%
|-
|2010
|408,663
|7.82%
|-
|2009
|379,036
| -9.50%
|-
|2008
|418,828
| -0.12%
|-
|2007
|419,319
|5.60%
|-
|2006
|397,088
|6.56%
|-
|2005
|372,646
|5.22%
|-
|2004
|354,171
|6.61%
|-
|2003
|332,198
|3.01%
|-
|2002
|322,505
|0.10%
|-
|2001
|322,182
| -4.04%
|-
|2000
|335,733
|
|}

=== 2022 Developments ===

==== Magna ====
[[File:US-Ad-Forecast-March-2023-Option-2-768x570.png|center|thumb|580x580px|https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/]]
'''Social media''' formats (Facebook, Instagram, Tiktok …) will re-accelerate +6% to $66bn after stalling in 2022 (+2%) due to headwinds including audience maturity and the data targeting limitations established in 2021.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/us-ad-market-update-march-2023/</ref>

==== News ====

# After years of social media being one of the most powerful engines of digital ad spending growth, 2022 saw the first meaningful decline in social’s share of digital ad spending since Insider Intelligence began tracking it in 2008. This was, in part, due to the rise of retail media and connected TV (CTV), plus a radical slowdown in growth caused by ATT.<ref>https://www.insiderintelligence.com/insights/social-media-paid-ads/</ref>

Previously expected $33.98 billion in social network video ad spending by 2022, and that figure has now been slashed to $29.82 billion—a difference of more than $4 billion. These staggering reductions are the result of a perfect storm starting in 2021—with '''Apple’s rollout of its AppTrackingTransparency framework, followed by a downturn in the global economy due to persistent inflation, soaring interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and the Russia-Ukraine war.'''
[[File:Screenshot 2024-02-07 111654.png|center|thumb|547x547px]]2. Over the full year, UK social media spend, which is a sub-category of the online display section in the report, increased by 4.9%. The overall category grew at 10% in 2022 and is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2023. Total ad spend grew 8.8% in 2022.

* Sharp and sustained falls in social media spend – the first time this has been recorded in the UK – are likely to have been instigated by r'''educed advertising activity among the SMEs who comprise a ‘long tail’ of ad volume on social platforms and whose margins are under incredible stress as inflation''' bites
* The decline in the latter half of 2022 also coincides with a period of unrest within the wider social media ad landscape.<ref>https://www.marketingweek.com/social-media-ad-spend-drops/</ref>

3. Digital ad revenue in the U.S. rose 10.8% to $209.7 billion last year as marketers continued to spend in online channels despite slower economic growth, market uncertainty and mass layoffs at big tech companies, according to a new report from the Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. But the increase was smaller than the 35% leap seen in 2021. <ref>https://www.wsj.com/articles/digital-ad-revenue-grew-again-in-2022-but-much-more-slowly-41485957</ref>

In addition to broader economic uncertainty, which led some companies to draw back on marketing budgets in the last part of 2022, the '''online ad business has been grappling with evolving privacy regulation and increased consumer privacy protections from companies such as Apple Inc., which some industry players say have made it harder to target messages and measure their efficacy.'''

Social media ad revenue grew 3.6% in 2022, a slowdown in growth from 39.3% a year earlier, according to the new IAB report, as privacy protections affected companies in the sector in particular. <blockquote>“Social media, of all the different kinds of [media] types that we looked at, was the most adversely affected in 2022” as a result of tech platform policies, Mr. Cohen said. </blockquote>

==== Public Companies ====

=== 2008-2009 Company Comparison ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Company
! colspan="2" |Revenue
! colspan="2" |EPS
! colspan="2" |Margin
!Comments 2009
|-
!
!2008
!2009
!2008
!2009
!2008
!2009
!
|-
|Alphabet
|
|
|
|
|
|
|To be updated here. Work in [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LW-eTnCNNbzEpsZEBrjQBcWBbNvqSvKK7VcEMuUEjqM/edit?gid=724201715#gid=724201715&range=A1 Google Sheets]
|-
|WPP<ref>https://www.wpp.com/-/media/project/wpp/files/imported-reports/2009/ar09_complete.pdf</ref>
|7,476.9
|8,684.3
|37.6p
|35.3p
|
|
|
* Pressure continued on the Group’s Advertising and Media Investment Management businesses, although the pressure seen by Media Investment Management in quarters two and three eased significantly in the final quarter.
* The pressure continued on the Group’s Advertising and Media Investment Management businesses, with '''clients continuing to seek greater and greater effectiveness and efficiencies, in markets where there is little inflation and, as a result, little pricing power and an over-supply of old and new media inventory.'''
* In constant currencies''', Advertising and Media Investment Management revenues fell by 8.6%, with like-for-like revenues down almost the same at 8.5%.''' Although cost actions were taken by the year end, the impact of revenue declines resulted in the combined annual operating margin of this sector falling by over 3.0 margin points.
|-
|Publicis<ref>https://www.publicisgroupe.com/sites/default/files/press-release/20100217_Annual_Results_2009_final.pdf</ref>
|4,704
|4,524
|2.12
|1.90
|16.7%
|15.0%
|
* As expected, after the advertising market reached its low point in 2009 during the summer, the decline, which had been gathering pace since mid-2008, began to slow, and then stopped. The fourth quarter brought an improvement, confirming the first signs of recovery.
* While the market overall was down by 12% to 14%, Publicis managed to limit the decrease to 6.5%, thereby gaining market share. Tight control over our costs and headcount; services with added value; these are some of the reasons why we were able to achieve an operating margin which remains one of the highest on the market despite the crisis.
|-
|Interpublic Group<ref>https://investors.interpublic.com/static-files/bcbb3af5-6514-4138-bc49-f67bd7800ae5</ref>
|$6,962.7
|$6,027.6
|$0.52
|$0.19
|8.5%
|5.7%
|
* Revenues were down 10.8% organically compared to the previous period. This was primarily due to the impact of the recession on marketers’ willingness to spend.
|}

=== 2008-2009 News and Commentary ===

# Us total measured advertising expenditures fell 12.3% in 2009 from 2008 levels, to $125.3 billion, according to data released by Kantar Media<ref>https://techcrunch.com/2010/03/17/advertising-expenditures-2009/</ref>

[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 192603.png|alt=|center|thumb|511x511px|https://techcrunch.com/2010/03/17/advertising-expenditures-2009/]]
2. U.S. ad spending declined nine percent in 2009, according to preliminary figures released today by The Nielsen Company. Spending fell an estimated $11.6 billion to a total of $117 billion last year. The figures continue a trend of at least six straight quarters of negative growth in the ad industry<ref>https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf</ref>

There was some notable activity among product categories outside the top 10. Investment Services not only saw ad spending fall 14% to $1.3 billion in 2009, but the category also had about 1000 fewer advertisers in 2009 compared to 2008. On the other hand, spending by web-based advertisers climbed 32% to $1.1 billion, paced by dramatic spending increases by Hulu and Bing.<blockquote>“Fourth quarter ad spending was down just two percent year-over-year, and that helped soften the full-year decline,” said Terrie Brennan, senior VP for new business development at The Nielsen Company. “In fact, most of the top advertisers showed increased spending late in the year. These are encouraging signs for an ad market that’s still trying to stop the bleeding.”</blockquote>
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 193459.png|center|thumb|553x553px|https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-04 193508.png|center|thumb|602x602px|https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/2009-Year-End-Ad-Spend-Press-Release.pdf]]

== References ==

File:Screenshot 2025-01-13 095429.png

2025-01-13T16:11:42Z

MagaNH6:

File:Screenshot 2025-01-13 095407.png

2025-01-13T16:11:28Z

MagaNH6:

Net Immigration

2024-12-13T19:55:47Z

MagaNH6: Created page with "== Net Immigration Developments and Forecast == {| class="wikitable" ! colspan="3" |Net Immigration |- !Year !Net immigration (Millions of people) !Y/Y |- |2000 |1.251 | |- |2001 |1.373 |9.75% |- |2002 |1.308 | -4.73% |- |2003 |1.155 | -11.70% |- |2004 |1.329 |15.06% |- |2005 |1.884 |41.76% |- |2006 |1.688 | -10.40% |- |2007 |0.889 | -47.33% |- |2008 |0.174 | -80.43% |- |2009 |0.899 |416.67% |- |2010 |0.803 | -10.68% |- |2011 |0.729 | -9.22% |- |2012 |0.654 | -10.29% |-..."

== Net Immigration Developments and Forecast ==
{| class="wikitable"
! colspan="3" |Net Immigration
|-
!Year
!Net immigration
(Millions of people)
!Y/Y
|-
|2000
|1.251
|
|-
|2001
|1.373
|9.75%
|-
|2002
|1.308
| -4.73%
|-
|2003
|1.155
| -11.70%
|-
|2004
|1.329
|15.06%
|-
|2005
|1.884
|41.76%
|-
|2006
|1.688
| -10.40%
|-
|2007
|0.889
| -47.33%
|-
|2008
|0.174
| -80.43%
|-
|2009
|0.899
|416.67%
|-
|2010
|0.803
| -10.68%
|-
|2011
|0.729
| -9.22%
|-
|2012
|0.654
| -10.29%
|-
|2013
|0.817
|24.92%
|-
|2014
|1.639
|100.61%
|-
|2015
|1.478
| -9.82%
|-
|2016
|0.885
| -40.12%
|-
|2017
|1.100
|24.29%
|-
|2018
|0.671
| -39.00%
|-
|2019
|0.415
| -38.15%
|-
|2020
|0.808
|94.70%
|-
|2021
|1.171
|44.98%
|-
|2022
|2.674
|128.24%
|-
|2023
|3.297
|23.29%
|-
|2024
|3.299
|0.07%
|-
|2025
|2.601
| -21.15%
|-
|2026
|1.804
| -30.66%
|-
|2027
|1.106
| -38.68%
|-
|2028
|1.108
|0.22%
|-
|2029
|1.111
|0.22%
|-
|2030
|1.113
|0.22%
|-
|2031
|1.116
|0.22%
|-
|2032
|1.118
|0.22%
|-
|2033
|1.121
|0.22%
|-
|2034
|1.123
|0.22%
|-
|2035
|1.125
|0.22%
|-
|2036
|1.128
|0.22%
|-
|2037
|1.130
|0.22%
|-
|2038
|1.133
|0.22%
|-
|2039
|1.136
|0.22%
|-
|2040
|1.138
|0.22%
|-
|2041
|1.141
|0.22%
|-
|2042
|1.143
|0.23%
|-
|2043
|1.146
|0.23%
|-
|2044
|1.148
|0.23%
|-
|2045
|1.150
|0.18%
|-
|2046
|1.152
|0.17%
|-
|2047
|1.154
|0.17%
|-
|2048
|1.156
|0.16%
|-
|2049
|1.158
|0.15%
|-
|2050
|1.160
|0.14%
|-
|2051
|1.161
|0.14%
|-
|2052
|1.163
|0.13%
|-
|2053
|1.164
|0.13%
|-
|2054
|1.166
|0.13%
|}

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November

2024-12-10T18:45:30Z

MagaNH6:

''Return to: [[Consumer Price Index]] | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases|Historical Releases]]'' | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 October]]

Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12112024.htm

Publishing date: December 11, 2024
==CPI expectations ==
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]])
[[File:Screenshot 2024-12-10 123140.png|center|thumb|1181x1181px|https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzvIAz6CBS78vH1moNA-foaZA0HWOb-AG1DfvCUJDio/edit?gid=1233713232#gid=1233713232]]

''Range:''
*CPI: 2.6% - 2.8%
*Core CPI: 3.2% - 3.4%
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Escenario'''
|'''Market reaction'''
|'''Probability by Magaly'''
|-
|CPI below 2.6%
|1%+ rally
|5%
|-
|CPI at 2.6%
|0.5% Rally
|15%
|-
|CPI in line with expectations
|Flat
|50%
|-
|CPI at 2.8%
|1% drop
|25%
|-
|CPI above 2.8%
|2.5% drop
|5%
|}
===Consensus forecast===
{| class="wikitable"
!Variable
!Forecast
!Previous
|-
|Core CPI (MoM)
|0.3%
|0.3%
|-
|Core CPI (YoY)
|3.3%
|3.3%
|-
|CPI (MoM)
|0.3%
|0.2%
|-
|CPI (YoY)
|2.7%
|2.6%
|}
===FED Cleveland Forecast===
{| class="wikitable"
!<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref>
! colspan="2" |YoY Change
! colspan="2" |MoM Change
|-
!Month
!CPI
!Core CPI
!CPI
!Core CPI
|-
|November 2024
|2.7
|3.3
|0.26
|0.27
|-
|December 2024
|2.81
|3.27
|0.37
|0.27
|}

=== Institutions Forecasts ===
[[File:GeZ8pyGXoAA7CDe.png|center|thumb|687x687px|https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1866452808574063058/photo/1]]

==References==

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November

2024-12-10T18:44:43Z

MagaNH6:

''Return to: [[Consumer Price Index]] | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases|Historical Releases]]'' | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 October]]

Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12112024.htm

Publishing date: December 11, 2024
==CPI expectations ==
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]])
[[File:Screenshot 2024-12-10 123140.png|center|thumb|1181x1181px|https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzvIAz6CBS78vH1moNA-foaZA0HWOb-AG1DfvCUJDio/edit?gid=1233713232#gid=1233713232]]

''Range:''
*CPI: 2.6% - 2.8%
*Core CPI: 3.2% - 3.4%
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Escenario'''
|'''Market reaction'''
|'''Probability by Magaly'''
|-
|CPI below 2.6%
|1%+ rally
|5%
|-
|CPI at 2.6%
|0.5% Rally
|15%
|-
|CPI in line with expectations
|Flat
|50%
|-
|CPI at 2.8%
|1% drop
|25%
|-
|CPI above 2.8%
|2.5% drop
|5%
|}
===Consensus forecast===
{| class="wikitable"
!Variable
!Forecast
!Previous
|-
|Core CPI (MoM)
|0.3%
|0.3%
|-
|Core CPI (YoY)
|3.3%
|3.3%
|-
|CPI (MoM)
|0.3%
|0.2%
|-
|CPI (YoY)
|2.7%
|2.6%
|}
===FED Cleveland Forecast===
{| class="wikitable"
!<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref>
! colspan="2" |YoY Change
! colspan="2" |MoM Change
|-
!Month
!CPI
!Core CPI
!CPI
!Core CPI
|-
|November 2024
|2.7
|3.3
|0.26
|0.27
|-
|December 2024
|2.81
|3.27
|0.37
|0.27
|}

=== Institutions Forecasts ===
[[File:GeZ8pyGXoAA7CDe.png|center|thumb|687x687px|https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1866452808574063058/photo/1]]

==References==

File:GeZ8pyGXoAA7CDe.png

2024-12-10T18:43:18Z

MagaNH6:

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November

2024-12-10T18:33:02Z

MagaNH6:

File:Screenshot 2024-12-10 123140.png

2024-12-10T18:32:00Z

MagaNH6:

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November

2024-12-10T17:50:45Z

MagaNH6:

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 October

2024-12-10T16:47:52Z

MagaNH6:

''Return to: [[Consumer Price Index]] | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases|Historical Releases]]'' | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 September]]

Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_11132024.htm

Publishing date: November 13, 2024.

== CPI Results ==
{| class="wikitable"
!Variable
!Actuals
!Forecast
!Previous
|-
|Core CPI (MoM)
|0.3%
|0.3%
|0.3%
|-
|Core CPI (YoY)
|3.3%
|3.3%
|3.3%
|-
|CPI (MoM)
|0.2%
|0.2%
|0.2%
|-
|CPI (YoY)
|2.6%
|2.6%
|2.4%
|}

* Headline CPI and core CPI rose 0.2% and 0.3% in October respectively, both in line with estimates.
* On a yearly basis, headline CPI was up 2.6% while core CPI increased 3.3%, both in line with the estimates.
* Super core inflation rose 0.3% down from 0.4% in September, driven by transportation services and medical care services.

[[File:540d77785c57f0022d974e2637abad257c56e514 2 1035x580.png|center|thumb|1003x1003px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/views/USInflation_17171686419090/CPIYY?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]
[[File:Da6e8a26b013ff05bf3ea125aee51738676f0054 2 1035x697.png|center|thumb|999x999px]]
'''Shelter is still responsible for more than half of the CPI increases. While there’s hope that shelter inflationary pressures will eventually ease, the decline has been very gradual and not linear.'''

* Transportation is still a problem at 8.17% y/y, but has improved slightly during the year.
* Medical services seeing renewed inflationary pressures at 3.83 y/y currently, it was at 0.62% y/y back in January.

[[File:96c942c27bc780823fc9e005a4c87406fc26ef46 2 1035x582.png|center|thumb|1006x1006px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/views/USInflation_17171686419090/Shelter6MAnn?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]
[[File:0ecf51253d0dd038f93e23678aecb813aeee2d9d.jpeg|center|thumb|725x725px]]
'''Shelter, Transportation and medical services are also the only components that inflation has not seen significant improvement since 2022.'''
[[File:28e6842f3f5a80918732d9a593223b48ebdcd9dd.png|center|thumb|829x829px]]
[[File:3054ae275b3497a09b9ba0fe4362abf898be52af.png|center|thumb|1009x1009px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/views/USInflation_17171686419090/CPI3MMovingAverage?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]

== CPI expectations ==
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]])
[[File:Screenshot 2024-11-12 135843.png|center|thumb|1223x1223px|<ref>https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzvIAz6CBS78vH1moNA-foaZA0HWOb-AG1DfvCUJDio/edit?gid=1233713232#gid=1233713232&range=A1</ref>]]

''Range:''

* CPI: 2.5% - 2.7%
* Core CPI: 3.2% - 3.4%

{| class="wikitable"
|'''Escenario'''
|'''Market reaction'''
|'''Probability by Magaly'''
|-
|CPI below 2.5%
|1.5%+ rally
|5%
|-
|CPI at 2.5%
|0.75% Rally
|15%
|-
|CPI in line with expectations
|Flat
|50%
|-
|CPI at 2.7%
|0.75% drop
|25%
|-
|CPI above 2.7%
|1% drop
|5%
|}

=== Consensus forecast ===
{| class="wikitable"
!Variable
!Forecast
!Previous
|-
|Core CPI (MoM)
|0.3%
|0.3%
|-
|Core CPI (YoY)
|3.3%
|3.3%
|-
|CPI (MoM)
|0.2%
|0.2%
|-
|CPI (YoY)
|2.6%
|2.4%
|}

=== FED Cleveland Forecast ===
{| class="wikitable"
!<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref>
! colspan="2" |YoY Change
! colspan="2" |MoM Change
|-
!Month
!CPI
!Core CPI
!CPI
!Core CPI
|-
|October 2024
|2.56
|3.34
|0.18
|0.27
|-
|November 2024
|2.67
|3.31
|0.28
|0.27
|}

== References ==

# [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 September#cite%20ref-1|↑]] <nowiki>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</nowiki>

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November

2024-12-10T16:47:26Z

MagaNH6:

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November

2024-12-10T16:46:23Z

MagaNH6:

Consumer Price Index

2024-12-10T16:37:51Z

MagaNH6:

''Return to: [[Macroeconomics]]''

Forum Discussion: [https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/consumer-price-index-cpi/39 https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/consumer-price-index-cpi]

== Upcoming CPI expectations ==
Expectations for November 2024 can be found [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November|here]]

==Historical CPI Releases==

''Main article: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases]]''

===Recent Inflation History ===
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Month (Release Date)'''
|'''Headline <ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733</ref> '''
|'''M/M'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Surprise'''
|'''Core <ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-cpi-736 </ref> '''
|'''M/M'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Surprise'''
|'''SuperCore M/M'''<ref>https://sites.google.com/view/pskrzypczynski/home/cpi-core-services-less-shelter-inflation-in-the-u-s</ref>
|'''Market Reaction'''
|'''Full Release'''
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November|November 2024]]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|Link
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 October|October 2024]]
|2.6%
|0.2%
|2.6%
|0.0%
|3.3%
|0.3%
|3.3%
|0.0%
|0.3%
|
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_11132024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 September|September 2024]]
|2.4%
|0.2%
|2.3%
|0.1%
|3.3%
|0.3%
|3.2%
|0.1%
|0.404%
| -0.4%
|
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 August|August 2024]]
|2.5%
|0.2%
|2.6%
| -0.1%
|3.2%
|0.3%
|3.2%
|0.0%
|0.327%
| -0.4%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 July|July 2024]]
|2.9%
|0.2%
|2.9%
|0.0%
|3.2%
|0.2%
|3.2%
|0.0%
|0.2%
|0.38%
|
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 June|June 2024]]
|3.0%
| -0.1%
|3.1%
|0.1%
|3.3%
|0.1%
|3.4%
|0.1%
|<nowiki>-0.05%</nowiki>
|1%
|
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 May|May 2024]]
|3.3%
|0.0%
|3.4%
| -0.1%
|3.4%
|0.2%
|3.5%
| -0.1%
| -0.045%
|1%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_06122024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 April|April 2024]]
|3.4%
|0.3%
|3.4%
|0.0%
|3.6%
|0.3%
|3.6%
|0.0%
|0.42%
|1.17%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_05152024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 March|March 2024]]
|3.5%
|0.4%
|3.4%
|0.1%
|3.8%
|0.4%
|3.7%
|0.1%
|0.65%
| -0.93%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 February|February 2024]]
|3.2%
|0.4%
|3.1%
|0.1%
|3.8%
|0.4%
|3.7%
|0.1%
|0.47%
|1.13%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_03122024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 January|January 2024]]
|3.1%
|0.3%
|2.9%
|0.2%
|3.9%
|0.3%
|3.7%
|0.2%
|0.85%
|<nowiki>-2%</nowiki>
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_02132024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 December|December 2023]]
|3.4%
|0.3%
|3.2%
|0.2%
|3.9%
|0.3%
|3.8%
|0.1%
|0.4%
|
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01112024.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 November|November 2023]]
|3.1%
|0.1%
|3.1%
|0.0%
|4.0%
|0.3%
|4.0%
|0.0%
|0.44%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12122023.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 October|October 2023]]
|3.2%
|0.0%
|3.3%
| -0.1%
|4.0%
|0.2%
|4.1%
| -0.1%
|0.21%
| +2%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_11142023.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 September|September 2023]]
|3.7%
|0.4%
|3.6%
|0.1%
|4.1%
|0.3%
|4.1%
|0.0%
|0.6%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10122023.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 August|August 2023]]
|3.7%
|0.6%
|3.6%
|0.1%
|4.3%
|0.3%
|4.3%
|0.0%
|0.4%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09132023.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 July|July 2023]]
|3.2%
|0.2%
|3.3%
| -0.1%
|4.7%
|0.2%
|4.7%
|0.0%
|0.2%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 June|June 2023 (July 12)]]
|3.00%
|0.2%
|3.1%
| -0.1%
|4.8%
|0.2%
|5.00%
| -0.2%
|0.00%
|0.74%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 May|May 2023 (June 13)]]
|4.00%
|0.10%
|4.10%
|<nowiki>-0.1%</nowiki>
|5.3%
|0.4%
|5.3%
|0.0%
|0.2%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 April|April 2023]]
|4.9%
|0.4%
|5%
|<nowiki>-0.1%</nowiki>
|5.5%
|0.4%
|5.5%
|0.0%
|0.1%
|Flat
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 March|March 2023 (Apr 12)]]
|5.0%
|0.1%
|5.2%
| -0.2%
|5.6%
|0.4%
|5.6%
|0.00%
|0.3%
|1.00%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 February|February 2023 (Mar 14)]]
|6.0%
|0.40%
|6.0%
|0.00%
|5.5%
|0.50%
|5.5%
|0.0%
|0.4%
|1.69%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 January|January 2023 (Feb 14)]]
|6.4%
|0.50%
|6.2%
|0.20%
|5.6%
|0.40%
|5.5%
|0.10%
|0.3%
|0.14%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2022 December|December 2022 (Jan 12)]]
|6.50%
| -0.10%
|6.50%
|0.00%
|5.7%
|0.30%
|5.70%
|0.00%
|0.4%
|0.34%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Link]
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2022 November|November 2022 (Dec 13]])
|7.10%
|0.10%
|7.30%
| -0.20%
|6.00%
|0.20%
|6.10%
| -0.10%
|0.3%
|0.7%
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12132022.pdf Link]
|-
|October 2022 (Nov 10)
|7.70%
|0.40%
|8.00%
| -0.30%
|6.30%
|0.30%
|6.50%
| -0.20%
|0.2%
|5.5%
|Link
|-
|September 2022 (Oct 13)
|8.20%
|0.40%
|8.10%
|0.10%
|6.60%
|0.60%
|6.50%
|0.10%
|0.8%
|2.6%
|Link
|-
|August 2022 (Sep 13)
|8.30%
|0.10%
|8.10%
|0.20%
|6.30%
|0.60%
|6.10%
|0.20%
|0.5%
|<nowiki>-4.3%</nowiki>
|Link
|-
|July 2022 (Aug 10)
|8.50%
|0.00%
|8.70%
| -0.20%
|5.90%
|0.30%
|6.10%
| -0.20%
|0.1%
|2.1%
|Link
|-
|June 2022 (Jul 13)
|9.10%
|1.30%
|8.80%
|0.30%
|5.90%
|0.70%
|5.70%
|0.20%
|0.7%
| -0.5%
|Link
|-
|May 2022 (Jun 10)
|8.60%
|1.00%
|8.30%
|0.30%
|6.00%
|0.60%
|5.90%
|0.10%
|0.7%
| -2.9%
|Link
|-
|April 2022 (May 11)
|8.30%
|0.30%
|8.10%
|0.20%
|6.20%
|0.60%
|6.00%
|0.20%
|0.8%
| -1.7%
|Link
|-
|March 2022 (Apr 12)
|8.50%
|1.20%
|8.40%
|0.10%
|6.50%
|0.30%
|6.60%
| -0.10%
|0.7%
| -0.3%
|Link
|-
|February 2022 (Mar 10)
|7.90%
|0.80%
|7.90%
|0.00%
|6.40%
|0.50%
|5.90%
|0.50%
|0.5%
| -0.4%
|Link
|-
|January 2022 (Feb 10)
|7.50%
|0.60%
|7.30%
|0.20%
|6.00%
|0.60%
|5.90%
|0.10%
|0.5%
| -1.8%
|Link
|-
|December 2021 (Jan 12)
|7.00%
|0.50%
|7.00%
|0.00%
|5.50%
|0.60%
|5.40%
|0.10%
|0.4%
|0.3%
|Link
|}

== Definitions ==
Headline:

Core:

==== Supercore: ====
In a speech on November 30,2022 Fed Chair Powell referred to services less shelter as a major category of focus due to the close relationship with wages.

''"Finally, we come to core services other than housing. This spending category covers a wide range of services from health care and education to haircuts and hospitality. This is the largest of our three categories, constituting more than half of the core PCE index. Thus, this may be the most important category for understanding the future evolution of core inflation. Because wages make up the largest cost in delivering these services, the labor market holds the key to understanding inflation in this category."'' <ref>https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20221130a.htm</ref>

==Weighing of CPI components==
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Item'''
|'''2023 Weights'''
|-
|'''Food'''
|'''13.531'''
|-
|'''Energy'''
|'''6.921'''
|-
|'''Commodities less food and energy'''
|'''21.361'''
|-
| - Home Furnishing and Supplies
|3.397
|-
| - Apparel
|2.479
|-
| - New Vehicles
|4.313
|-
| - Used Cars
|2.668
|-
| - Medical Care Commodities
|1.455
|-
| - Alcoholic Beverages
|0.845
|-
| - Tobacco
|0.494
|-
| - Recreation Commodities
|2.291
|-
| - Other Goods
|3.419
|-
|'''Services less energy services'''
|'''58.187'''
|-
| - Shelter
|34.413
|-
| - Water and Trash Collection
|1.056
|-
| - Medical care Services
|6.653
|-
| - Transportation Services
|5.75
|-
| - Recreation Services
|3.094
|-
| - Education and Communication Services
|4.913
|-
| - Other services
|2.308
|}

==Near-term inflation drivers==
===1. Wages===
Past Developments: [[Wages]]
{| class="wikitable"
!Release Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003</ref>
!Level
!M/M
!Y/Y
!M/M Forecast
!Y/Y Forecast
|-
|2024-11-01
|35.61
|0.37
|4.03
|0.3%
|3.9%
|-
|2024-10-01
|35.48
|0.42
|4.05
|0.3%
|4%
|-
|2024-09-01
|35.33
|0.31
|3.88
|0.3%
|3.8%
|-
|2024-08-01
|35.22
|0.43
|3.86
|0.3%
|3.8%
|-
|2024-07-01
|35.07
|0.23
|3.63
|0.3%
|3.7%
|-
|2024-06-01
|34.99
|0.32
|3.83
|0.3%
|3.9%
|}
===2. Supply Chains===
Past developments: [[Supply Chains|Supply Chain Developments]]
{| class="wikitable"
!Month<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>
!Index
|-
|30-Nov-2024
| -0.32
|-
|31-Oct-2024
| -0.33
|-
|30-Sep-2024
|0.11
|-
|31-Aug-2024
|0.22
|-
|31-Jul-2024
| -0.05
|-
|30-Jun-2024
| -0.34
|}
===3. PPI===
Past Developments: [[Producer Price Index]]
{| class="wikitable"
!'''Producer Price Index'''
!'''Actual'''<ref name=":0">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-734</ref>
!'''Forecast(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":0" />
!'''Revised Previous(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":0" />
!'''M/M'''<ref name=":1">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-238</ref>
! '''Forecast(M/M)'''<ref name=":1" />
!'''Revised Previous(M/M)<ref name=":1" />'''
|-
|2024 October
|2.40%
|2.30%
|1.90%
|0.20%
|0.20%
|0.10%
|-
|2024 September
|1.80%
|1.60%
|1.90%
|0.00%
|0.10%
|0.20%
|-
|2024 August
|1.70%
|1.80%
|2.10%
|0.20%
|0.1%
|0.0%
|-
|2024 July
|2.20%
|2.30%
|2.70%
|0.10%
|0.2%
|0.2%
|-
|2024 June
|2.60%
|2.30%
|2.40%
|0.20%
|0.1%
|0.0%
|}
===4. Housing Market===
Past Developments: [[Housing Market: US#Price Developments|Housing Market: US]]

Important to consider that shelter CPI has a big lag (6-12 months) between current market prices and the correspondent reflection in CPI.

==== Housing ====
{| class="wikitable"
!
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA</ref>
|-
!Date
!Index
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-09-01
|324.80
| -0.10
|3.89
|-
|2024-08-01
|325.13
| -0.13
|4.28
|-
|2024-07-01
|325.54
|0.03
|4.87
|-
|2024-06-01
|325.43
|0.48
|5.49
|}
==== Rents ====
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date<ref name=":03">https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data?utm_source=twitter.com</ref>
! colspan="3" |Overall
! colspan="3" |1 Bedroom
! colspan="3" |2 Bedroom
|-
!Rents
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Rents
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Rents
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|11/1/2024
|1382
| -0.86
| -0.65
|1214
| -0.82
| -0.65
|1368
| -0.80
| -0.58
|-
|10/1/2024
|1394
| -0.71
| -0.71
|1224
| -0.81
| -0.73
|1379
| -0.79
| -0.79
|-
|9/1/2024
|1404
| -0.50
| -0.78
|1234
| -0.48
| -0.72
|1390
| -0.50
| -0.71
|-
|8/1/2024
|1411
| -0.14
| -0.84
|1240
| -0.16
| -0.80
|1397
| -0.14
| -0.78
|-
|7/1/2024
|1413
|0.21
| -0.84
|1242
|0.24
| -0.80
|1399
|0.21
| -0.78
|-
|6/1/2024
|1410
|0.43
| -0.77
|1239
|0.41
| -0.80
|1396
|0.43
| -0.78
|}
=== 5. Food Prices ===
Past Developments: [[Food Market]]

CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis.
{| class="wikitable"
!Date<ref name=":04">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>
! colspan="3" |Food Price Index
!Meat
! Dairy
!Cereals
!Oils
!Sugar
|-
!
!Index
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Index
!Index
!Index
!Index
!Index
|-
|2024-11
|127.50
|0.47
|5.72
|118.1
|139.9
|111.4
|164.1
|126.4
|-
|2024-10
|126.90
|1.85
|5.14
|119.1
|139.0
|114.4
|152.7
|129.6
|-
|2024-09
|124.60
|2.38
|2.38
|119.9
|136.5
|113.6
|142.4
|126.3
|-
|2024-08
|121.70
|0.66
| -0.08
|122.0
|131.3
|110.2
|136.1
|113.9
|-
|2024-07
|120.90
| -0.08
| -2.81
|120.0
|127.9
|110.7
|135.0
|119.5
|-
|2024-06
|121.00
|0.41
| -1.63
|118.1
| 127.9
|115.2
|131.8
|119.4
|}
===6. Energy===
Past Developments: [https://www.investmentwiki.org/wiki/Energy_Industry#Price_Developments Energy Industry]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
Average Prices
! colspan="3" |WTI<ref name=":5">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
! colspan="3" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":6">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
|-
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Dollars per Gallon NSA
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-11-01
|69.95
| -2.83
| -9.96
|3.05
| -2.68
| -7.99
|-
|2024-10-01
|71.99
|2.49
| -15.94
|3.14
| -2.40
| -13.17
|-
|2024-09-01
|70.24
| -8.40
| -21.46
|3.21
| -5.16
| -16.21
|-
|2024-08-01
|76.68
| -6.26
| -5.79
|3.39
| -2.73
| -11.74
|-
|2024-07-01
|81.80
|2.54
|7.53
|3.48
|0.84
| -3.14
|-
|2024-06-01
|79.77
| -0.31
|13.55
|3.46
| -4.11
| -3.25
|}
===7. Car Prices===
Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
! colspan="4" |Used Car Index
! colspan="3" |New Car Average Transaction Prices
|-
!Index (1/97 = 100)
!Manheim Index $ amount SA
!Index % MoM
!Index % YoY
!ATP
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|Nov-24
|205.4
|18,787
|1.28
|0.20
|48,724
|1.5%
|
|-
|Oct-24
|202.8
|18,552
| -0.10
| -3.15
| 48,398
|0.2%
| 0.4%
|-
|Sep-24
|203.0
|18,565
| -0.44
| -5.27
|48,397
|0.8%
| -0.4%
|-
|Aug-24
|203.9
|18,654
|1.14
| -3.91
|47,997
| -0.35%
| -1.17%
|-
|July-24
|201.6
|18,441
|2.80
| -4.77
|48,166
| -0.5%
| -0.26%
|-
|Jun-24
|196.1
| 17,934
| -0.61
| -8.83
|48,424<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/june-2024-atp-report/</ref>
|0.1%
| -1.08%
|}
=== 8. Import Prices ===
Past Developments: [[Import Prices]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
!Import Prices
!Import Prices M/M
!Import Prices Y/Y
|-
!Default Units Index 2000=100 NSA<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IR</ref>
!
!
|-
|2024-10-01
|141.20
|0.28
|0.79
|-
|2024-09-01
|140.80
| -0.42
| -0.14
|-
| 2024-08-01
|141.40
| -0.28
|0.78
|-
|2024-07-01
|141.80
|0.14
|1.72
|-
|2024-06-01
|141.60
|0.07
|1.58
|}
=== 9. PMIs Price Index ===
Past developments: [[Purchasing Managers Index#Developments|ISM Prices Paid]]
{| class="wikitable"
!
! colspan="2" |Prices Paid
|-
!Month
! PMI Manufacturing<ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-manufacturing-prices-174</ref><ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-prices</ref>
!PMI Services<ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-non-manufacturing-prices-1049</ref><ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-non-manufacturing-prices</ref>
|-
|Nov-24
|50.3
|58.2
|-
|Oct-24
|54.8
|58.1
|-
|Sep-24
|48.3
|59.4
|-
|Aug-24
|54
|57.3
|-
|July-24
|52.9
|57
|-
|Jun-24
|52.1
|56.3
|-
|May-24
|57
|58.1
|-
|Apr-24
|60.9
|59.2
|-
|Mar-24
|55.8
|53.4
|-
|Feb-24
|52.5
|58.6
|-
|Jan-24
|52.9
|64
|-
|Dec-23
|45.2
|57.4
|}
== CPI During Recession ==
[[File:FjjZBKRWIAITa5Y.png|thumb|https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1601366332527693824/photo/1|alt=|center|552x552px]]

===Lower demand===
The slowing in demand the economy has started to experience will help put downside pressure on prices. The pricing power companies experienced during 2022 will diminish as demand declines, especially on discretionary items.

*Spending is expected to continue slowing as excess savings decline, debt cost increases (more income will go towards debt service), and banks start to tighten lending conditions<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRTSCLCC</ref>.
*In terms of the possibility of a recession, historically, inflation has come down on average 6.8% in a recession since 1923.

==Long term inflation drivers==

==References:==

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 November

2024-12-10T16:37:05Z

MagaNH6: Created page with "z"

Automotive Industry:United States

2024-12-10T16:36:42Z

MagaNH6: /* Prices */

''Return to: [[Industries]] | [[Automotive Industry]] | [[Automotive Industry:Questions]]''

Forum: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/automotive-industry-united-states/98/41

Data: [https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/investmentwiki/viz/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/ManheimUsedCarsIndex#3 Tableau] | Google Sheets: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i4ExbgRuG_nwDKnq1gJyTMi21X2sCf7qdA49zbHTDQU/edit?gid=0#gid=0 1] [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i4ExbgRuG_nwDKnq1gJyTMi21X2sCf7qdA49zbHTDQU/edit?gid=1458970427#gid=1458970427 2] 3
== Sales ==
[[File:Screenshot 2024-08-16 102924.png|alt=|center|thumb|1069x1069px|Total Vehicle Sales https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA]]
[[File:Light Vehicle Salesa24.png|center|thumb|1082x1082px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/views/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/LightVehicleSales?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
! colspan="4" |Total Vehicle Sales (M)<ref>https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i4ExbgRuG_nwDKnq1gJyTMi21X2sCf7qdA49zbHTDQU/edit?gid=0#gid=0&range=D1</ref><ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA</ref>
! colspan="4" |Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks (M)<ref>https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i4ExbgRuG_nwDKnq1gJyTMi21X2sCf7qdA49zbHTDQU/edit?gid=0#gid=0&range=L1</ref><ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ALTSALES</ref>
|-
!Millions
!M/M Level Change
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Millions
!M/M Level Change
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-09-01
|16.252
|0.49
|3.09%
|0.36%
|15.775
|0.51
|3.35%
|0.53%
|-
|2024-08-01
|15.765
| -0.61
| -3.74%
| -0.91%
|15.264
| -0.60
| -3.76%
| -0.71%
|-
|2024-07-01
|16.378
|0.91
|5.86%
| 0.47%
|15.861
|0.83
|5.54%
| 0.37%
|-
|2024-06-01
|15.471
| -0.90
| -5.51%
| -5.83%
|15.029
| -0.86
| -5.41%
| -5.41%
|-
|2024-05-01
|16.373
| -0.20
| -1.19%
|2.66%
|15.889
| -0.18
| -1.12%
|3.22%
|-
|2024-04-01
|16.57
|0.38
|2.37%
|0.75%
|16.069
|0.34
|2.18%
|0.91%
|-
|2024-03-01
|16.186
| 0.00
| -0.03%
|3.31%
|15.726
| 0.04
| 0.27%
|3.79%
|-
|2024-02-01
|16.191
|0.68
|4.37%
|4.90%
|15.683
|0.68
|4.54%
|5.11%
|-
|2024-01-01
|15.513
| -0.87
| -5.33%
| -0.97%
|15.002
| -0.92
| -5.76%
| -1.05%
|-
|2023-12-01
|16.386
|0.44
|2.77%
|17.59%
|15.919
|0.46
|2.99%
|18.52%
|-
|2023-11-01
|15.945
|0.15
|0.92%
|8.23%
|15.457
|0.11
|0.74%
|8.78%
|-
|2023-10-01
|15.799
| -0.39
| -2.43%
|4.69%
|15.343
| -0.35
| -2.22%
|5.00%
|-
|2023-09-01
|16.193
|0.28
|1.79%
|14.55%
|15.692
|0.32
|2.08%
|15.00%
|-
|2023-08-01
|15.909
| -0.39
| -2.41%
|13.12%
|15.373
| -0.43
| -2.72%
|13.39%
|-
|2023-07-01
|16.302
| -0.13
| -0.77%
|17.56%
|15.803
| -0.09
| -0.54%
|17.95%
|-
|2023-06-01
|16.428
|0.48
|3.01%
|20.18%
|15.889
|0.49
|3.22%
|20.44%
|-
|2023-05-01
|15.948
| -0.50
| -3.03%
|20.04%
|15.394
| -0.53
| -3.33%
|19.97%
|-
|2023-04-01
|16.446
|0.78
|4.97%
|12.02%
|15.924
|0.77
|5.10%
|11.84%
|-
|2023-03-01
|15.668
|0.23
|1.52%
|9.93%
|15.152
|0.23
|1.55%
|9.98%
|-
|2023-02-01
|15.434
| -0.23
| -1.47%
|8.94%
|14.92
| -0.24
| -1.59%
|8.77%
|-
|2023-01-01
|15.665
|1.73
|12.41%
|5.37%
|15.161
|1.73
|12.88%
|4.99%
|-
|2022-12-01
|13.935
| -0.80
| -5.42%
|5.84%
|13.431
| -0.78
| -5.48%
|5.81%
|-
|2022-11-01
|14.733
| -0.36
| -2.37%
|9.26%
|14.21
| -0.40
| -2.75%
|9.01%
|-
|2022-10-01
|15.091
|0.96
|6.76%
|14.49%
|14.612
|0.97
|7.09%
|14.54%
|-
|2022-09-01
|14.136
|0.07
|0.51%
|11.11%
|13.645
|0.09
|0.64%
|11.03%
|-
|2022-08-01
|14.064
|0.20
|1.42%
|2.17%
|13.558
|0.16
|1.19%
|1.60%
|-
|2022-07-01
|13.867
|0.20
|1.45%
| -8.81%
|13.398
|0.21
|1.55%
| -9.27%
|-
|2022-06-01
|13.669
|0.38
|2.88%
| -14.05%
|13.193
|0.36
|2.81%
| -14.46%
|-
|2022-05-01
|13.286
| -1.40
| -9.50%
| -23.93%
|12.832
| -1.41
| -9.87%
| -24.51%
|-
|2022-04-01
|14.681
|0.43
|3.00%
| -21.48%
|14.238
|0.46
|3.35%
| -21.81%
|-
|2022-03-01
|14.253
| 0.09
| 0.60%
| -22.94%
|13.777
| 0.06
| 0.44%
| -23.34%
|-
|2022-02-01
|14.168
| -0.70
| -4.70%
| -12.13%
|13.717
| -0.72
| -5.01%
| -12.43%
|-
|2022-01-01
|14.866
|1.70
|12.91%
| -10.97%
|14.441
|1.75
|13.77%
| -10.90%
|-
|2021-12-01
|13.166
| -0.32
| -2.36%
| -22.43%
|12.693
| -0.34
| -2.62%
| -23.13%
|-
|2021-11-01
|13.484
|0.30
|2.30%
| -17.54%
|13.035
|0.28
|2.18%
| -17.97%
|-
|2021-10-01
|13.181
|0.46
|3.61%
| -20.66%
|12.757
|0.47
|3.80%
| -21.08%
|-
|2021-09-01
|12.722
| -1.04
| -7.58%
| -24.00%
|12.29
| -1.06
| -7.91%
| -24.56%
|-
|2021-08-01
|13.765
| -1.44
| -9.48%
| -13.60%
|13.345
| -1.42
| -9.63%
| -13.98%
|-
|2021-07-01
|15.207
| -0.70
| -4.38%
| -0.12%
|14.767
| -0.66
| -4.25%
| -0.46%
|-
|2021-06-01
|15.903
| -1.56
| -8.95%
|18.06%
|15.423
| -1.58
| -9.27%
|17.61%
|-
|2021-05-01
|17.466
| -1.23
| -6.58%
|39.64%
|16.999
| -1.21
| -6.65%
|39.11%
|-
|2021-04-01
|18.697
|0.20
|1.09%
|109.05%
|18.21
|0.24
|1.32%
|111.89%
|-
|2021-03-01
|18.496
|2.37
|14.71%
|56.27%
|17.972
|2.31
|14.73%
|56.92%
|-
|2021-02-01
|16.124
| -0.57
| -3.43%
| -5.64%
|15.664
| -0.54
| -3.36%
| -5.79%
|-
|2021-01-01
|16.697
| -0.28
| -1.62%
| -1.16%
|16.208
| -0.30
| -1.84%
| -1.48%
|-
|2020-12-01
|16.972
|0.62
|3.79%
| -2.97%
|16.512
|0.62
|3.91%
| -3.02%
|-
|2020-11-01
|16.352
| -0.26
| -1.57%
| -6.82%
|15.89
| -0.27
| -1.70%
| -7.06%
|-
|2020-10-01
|16.613
| -0.13
| -0.75%
| -2.56%
|16.164
| -0.13
| -0.79%
| -2.21%
|-
|2020-09-01
|16.739
|0.81
|5.07%
| -5.54%
|16.292
|0.78
|5.02%
| -5.06%
|-
|2020-08-01
|15.932
|0.71
|4.64%
| -10.90%
|15.513
|0.68
|4.57%
| -10.57%
|-
|2020-07-01
|15.225
|1.76
|13.03%
| -13.90%
|14.835
|1.72
|13.12%
| -13.24%
|-
|2020-06-01
|13.47
|0.96
|7.69%
| -24.24%
|13.114
|0.89
|7.32%
| -24.01%
|-
|2020-05-01
|12.508
|3.56
|39.85%
| -30.38%
|12.22
|3.63
|42.19%
| -29.76%
|-
|2020-04-01
|8.944
| -2.89
| -24.43%
| -47.29%
|8.594
| -2.86
| -24.96%
| -47.57%
|-
|2020-03-01
|11.836
| -5.25
| -30.74%
| -33.66%
|11.453
| -5.17
| -31.11%
| -33.94%
|-
|2020-02-01
|17.088
|0.20
|1.15%
|0.74%
|16.626
|0.18
|1.06%
|1.06%
|-
|2020-01-01
|16.893
| -0.60
| -3.42%
| -0.45%
|16.451
| -0.58
| -3.38%
|0.09%
|-
|2019-12-01
|17.491
| -0.06
| -0.33%
| -3.24%
|17.027
| -0.07
| -0.41%
| -3.22%
|}
=== COX Sales Data ===
[[US Auto Cox Sales: Historical Releases]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
! colspan="3" |Sales Volume
! colspan="3" |SAAR Volume
|-
!Million
!Q/Q
!Y/Y
!Million
!Q/Q
!Y/Y
|-
|Q3 2024
|3.9
| -4.7%
| -2.1%
|15.6
| -0.3%
| -0.3%
|-
|Q2 2024
|4.1
| 10.5%
| -0.9%
|15.7
|
|
|-
|Q1 2024
|3.7
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Q4 2023
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Q3 2023
|4.0
|
|
|
|
|
|}

==== Q3 2024 ====

===== New =====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-11 150436.png|center|thumb|1078x1078px]]

==== Q2 2024 ====

=====<big>Used</big>=====
{| class="wikitable"
|<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-retail-vehicle-sales-june-2024/</ref>
! colspan="3" |Monthly Used Retail Sales
!
! colspan="3" |Year-Over-Year Change
!
! colspan="3" |Month-Over-Month Change
|-
|
!2022
!2023
!2024
!
!2022
!2023
!2024
!
!2022
!2023
!2024
|-
|Jan
|1,321,830
|1,398,501
|1,308,311
|
|
|5.8%
| -6.4%
|
|
|10.81%
|1.30%
|-
|Feb
|1,356,204
|1,332,128
|1,395,644
|
|
| -1.8%
|4.8%
|
|2.6%
| -4.7%
|6.7%
|-
|Mar
|1,659,013
|1,505,948
|1,556,473
|
|
| -9.2%
|3.4%
|
|22.3%
|13.0%
|11.5%
|-
|Apr
|1,491,848
|1,370,688
|1,395,645
|
|
| -8.1%
|1.8%
|
| -10.1%
| -9.0%
| -10.3%
|-
|May
|1,577,160
|1,383,537
|1,527,760
|
|
| -12.3%
|10.4%
|
|5.7%
|0.9%
|9.5%
|-
|Jun
|1,408,997
|1,356,899
|1,412,348
|
|
| -3.7%
|4.1%
|
| -10.7%
| -1.9%
| -7.6%
|-
|Jul
|1,435,306
|1,408,312
|
|
|
| -1.9%
|
|
|1.9%
|3.8%
|
|-
|Aug
|1,471,864
|1,473,243
|
|
|
|0.1%
|
|
|2.5%
|4.6%
|
|-
|Sep
|1,401,317
|1,335,070
|
|
|
| -4.7%
|
|
| -4.8%
| -9.4%
|
|-
|Oct
|1,407,624
|1,333,904
|
|
|
| -5.2%
|
|
|0.5%
| -0.1%
|
|-
|Nov
|1,280,510
|1,268,868
|
|
|
| -0.9%
|
|
| -9.0%
| -4.9%
|
|-
|Dec
|1,262,072
|1,291,529
|
|
|
|2.3%
|
|
| -1.4%
|1.8%
|
|}

=====<big>New</big>=====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-07-24 101659.png|center|thumb|927x927px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Cox-Automotive-Mid-Year-Review-Presentation.pdf]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-07-24 101711.png|center|thumb|921x921px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Cox-Automotive-Mid-Year-Review-Presentation.pdf]]

==== <big>March 2024</big> ====

=====<big>Used</big>=====
{| class="wikitable"
!<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-retail-vehicle-sales-march-2024/</ref>
! colspan="3" |Monthly Used Retail Sales
!
! colspan="3" |Year-Over-Year Change
!
! colspan="3" |Month-Over-Month Change
|-
!
!2022
!2023
!2024
!
!2022
!2023
!2024
!
!2022
!2023
!2024
|-
|Jan
|1,317,344
|1,397,196
|1,308,311
|
| -25.4%
|6.1%
| -6.4%
|
| -9.9%
|6.3%
|1.3%
|-
|Feb
|1,359,467
|1,349,784
|1,404,837
|
| -11.7%
| -0.7%
|4.1%
|
|3.2%
| -3.4%
|7.4%
|-
|Mar
|1,670,272
|1,501,785
|1,664,964
|
| -24.6%
| -10.1%
|10.9%
|
|22.9%
|11.3%
|18.5%
|-
|Apr
|1,480,027
|1,385,960
|
|
| -27.0%
| -6.4%
|
|
| -11.4%
| -7.7%
|
|-
|May
|1,573,287
|1,396,172
|
|
| -19.4%
| -11.3%
|
|
|6.3%
|0.7%
|
|-
|Jun
|1,449,190
|1,392,630
|
|
| -19.5%
| -3.9%
|
|
| -7.9%
| -0.3%
|
|-
|Jul
|1,466,348
|1,407,870
|
|
| -18.8%
| -4.0%
|
|
|1.2%
|1.1%
|
|-
|Aug
|1,491,004
|1,481,718
|
|
| -19.0%
| -0.6%
|
|
|1.7%
|5.2%
|
|-
|Sep
|1,395,438
|1,330,619
|
|
| -13.7%
| -4.6%
|
|
| -6.4%
| -10.2%
|
|-
|Oct
|1,414,611
|1,320,566
|
|
| -17.1%
| -6.6%
|
|
|1.4%
| -0.8%
|
|-
|Nov
|1,281,130
|1,282,699
|
|
| -15.5%
|0.1%
|
|
| -9.4%
| -2.9%
|
|-
|Dec
|1,314,827
|1,291,529
|
|
| -10.1%
| -1.8%
|
|
|2.6%
|0.7%
|
|}

=====<big>New</big>=====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-18 110126.png|center|thumb|855x855px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Q1-2024-Cox-Automotive-Industry-Insights-and-Forecast-Call-Presentation.pdf]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-18 110214.png|center|thumb|848x848px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Q1-2024-Cox-Automotive-Industry-Insights-and-Forecast-Call-Presentation.pdf]]

====== EV ======
In the first quarter of 2024, Americans bought 268,909 new electric vehicles. EV share of total new-vehicle sales in Q1 was 7.3%, a decrease from Q4 2023.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q1-2024-ev-sales/</ref>

* While annual EV sales continue to grow in the U.S. market, the growth rate has slowed notably. '''Sales in Q1 rose 2.6% year over year, but fell 15.2% compared to Q4 2023.''' The increase last quarter was well below the previous two years.
* One bright spot in Q1: Strong EV sales from luxury makers, suggesting the EV market continues to be luxury-driven. Cadillac achieved a 499.2% year-over-year increase in electric vehicle sales due to robust sales of its Lyriq model. At Mercedes, EV sales were up 66.9%. BMW posted a 62.6% increase in EV sales compared to Q1 2023. At Audi, Q1 EV sales grew 28.8% year over year.

== Prices ==
'''Historical''': [[US Auto Prices: Historical Releases]]

By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold.

Methodology: https://site.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html

'''Used Car Index'''
[[File:Manheim Used Cars Index (1).png|alt=|center|thumb|1097x1097px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/views/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/ManheimUsedCarsIndex?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]'''New Car Avg Prices'''
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-11 152640.png|center|thumb|1096x1096px]]
* ''Prices could have revisions that are not reported by Cox''

{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
! colspan="4" |Used Car Index
! colspan="3" |New Car Average Transaction Prices
!New Car Average Listing Price
!Used Car Average Listing Prices
|-
!Index (1/97 = 100)
!Manheim Index $ amount SA
!Index % MoM
!Index % YoY
!ATP
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Avg Price
!Avg Price
|-
|Nov-24
|205.4
|18,787
|1.28
|0.20
|48,724
|1.5%
|
|
|
|-
|Oct-24
|202.8
|18,552
| -0.10
| -3.15
|48,398
|0.2%
|0.4%
|
|
|-
|Sep-24
|203.0
|18,565
| -0.44
| -5.27
|48,397
|0.8%
| -0.4%
|47,823<ref name=":7" />
|25,361<ref name=":8" />
|-
|Aug-24
|203.9
|18,654
|1.14
| -3.91
|47,997
| -0.35%
| -1.17%
|46,841<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-august-2024/</ref>
|25,135 <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-august-2024/</ref>
|-
|July-24
|201.6
|18,441
|2.80
| -4.77
|48,166
| -0.5%
| -0.26%
|47,307<ref name=":3">https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-july-2024/</ref>
|25,425<ref name=":2" />
|-
|Jun-24
|196.1
|17,934
| -0.61
| -8.83
|48,424<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/june-2024-atp-report/</ref>
|0.1%
| -1.08%
|
|25,246<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-june-2024/</ref>
|-
|May-24
|197.3
|18,048
| -0.55
| -12.12
|48,378
|
|
|
|25,642
|-
|Apr-24
|198.4
|18,151
| -2.31
| -14.04
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Mar-24
|203.1
|18,573
| -0.34
| -14.70
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Feb-24
|203.8
|18,645
| -0.10
| -13.09
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jan-24
|204.0
|18,664
|0.00
| -9.25
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Dec-23
|204.0
|18,657
| -0.49
| -6.98
|
|
|
|48,805<ref name=":5" />
|26,446<ref name=":6" />
|-
|Nov-23
|205.0
|18,752
| -2.10
| -5.79
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Oct-23
|209.4
|19,157
| -2.29
| -4.03
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Sep-23
|214.3
|19,605
|0.99
| -3.94
|48,615
|
|
|
|
|-
|Aug-23
|212.2
|19,412
|0.24
| -7.74
|48,569
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jul-23
|211.7
|19,367
| -1.58
| -11.64
|48,295
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jun-23
|215.1
|19,679
| -4.19
| -10.34
|48,951
|
|
|
|
|-
|May-23
|224.5
|20,535
| -2.73
| -7.61
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Apr-23
|230.8
|21,113
| -3.07
| -4.35
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Mar-23
|238.1
|21,777
|1.54
| -2.38
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Feb-23
|234.5
|21,452
|4.31
| -7.06
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jan-23
|224.8
|20,563
|2.51
| -12.77
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Dec-22
|219.30
|20,060
|0.78
| -14.90
|49,929
|
|
|
|
|-
|Nov-22
|217.60
|19,900
| -0.27
| -14.20
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Oct-22
|218.20
|19,955
| -2.20
| -10.57
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Sep-22
|223.10
|20,410
| -3.00
| -0.13
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Aug-22
|230.00
|21,039
| -4.01
|8.44
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jul-22
|239.60
|21,915
| -0.13
|12.49
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jun-22
|239.90
|21,941
| -1.28
|9.74
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|May-22
|243.00
|22,225
|0.70
|9.71
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Apr-22
|241.30
|22,076
| -1.07
|13.98
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Mar-22
|243.90
|22,305
| -3.33
|24.82
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Feb-22
|252.30
|23,076
| -2.10
|36.67
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jan-22
|257.70
|23,574
|0.00
|44.86
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Dec-21
|257.70
|23,569
|1.62
|46.67
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Nov-21
|253.60
|23,197
|3.93
|43.44
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Oct-21
|244.00
|22,319
|9.22
|38.17
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Sep-21
|223.40
|20,432
|5.33
|27.08
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Aug-21
|212.10
|19,405
| -0.42
|18.76
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jul-21
|213.00
|19,482
| -2.56
|23.55
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jun-21
|218.60
|19,997
| -1.31
|34.28
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|May-21
|221.50
|20,260
|4.63
|48.16
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Apr-21
|211.70
|19,360
|8.34
|54.30
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Mar-21
|195.40
|17,876
|5.85
|26.23
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Feb-21
|184.60
|16,885
|3.77
|17.88
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jan-21
|177.90
|16,269
|1.25
|15.15
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Dec-20
|175.70
|16,072
| -0.62
|14.17
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Nov-20
|176.80
|16,168
|0.11
|16.70
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Oct-20
|176.60
|16,156
|0.46
|15.42
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Sep-20
|175.80
|16,081
| -1.57
|15.20
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Aug-20
|178.60
|16,339
|3.60
|15.82
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jul-20
|172.40
|15,765
|5.90
|12.53
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jun-20
|162.80
|14,895
|8.90
|6.27
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|May-20
|149.50
|13,672
|8.97
| -1.84
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Apr-20
|137.20
|12,548
| -11.37
| -9.14
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Mar-20
|154.80
|14,164
| -1.15
|4.38
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Feb-20
|156.60
|14,322
|1.36
|6.17
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jan-20
|154.50
|14,131
|0.39
|4.60
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Dec-19
|153.90
|14,076
|1.58
|2.53
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Nov-19
|151.50
|13,862
| -0.98
| -0.13
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Oct-19
|153.00
|13,999
|0.26
| -0.46
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Sep-19
|152.60
|13,958
| -1.04
|0.00
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Aug-19
|154.20
|14,104
|0.65
|1.18
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jul-19
|153.20
|14,017
|0.00
|2.54
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jun-19
|153.20
|14,016
|0.59
|4.08
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|May-19
|152.30
|13,931
|0.86
|4.03
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Apr-19
|151.00
|13,814
|1.82
|4.43
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Mar-19
|148.30
|13,569
|0.54
|3.92
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Feb-19
|147.50
|13,491
| -0.14
|3.22
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Jan-19
|147.70
|13,506
| -1.60
|3.36
|
|
|
|
|
|}
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-18 110755.png|center|thumb|853x853px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Q1-2024-Cox-Automotive-Industry-Insights-and-Forecast-Call-Presentation.pdf]]

=== June 2024 ===

==== Used ====

* Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down in June compared to May. The seasonal adjustment to the index mitigated the impact on the month, resulting in values that declined 0.6% month over month for the second time in a row. The non-adjusted price in June decreased by 2.2% compared to May, moving the unadjusted average price down 10.0% year over year.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/june-2024-muvvi/</ref>
* Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased an aggregate of 1.5%, including a decline of only 0.2% in the last week of the month. Those same four weeks delivered an average decrease of 0.5% between 2014 and 2019, showing that depreciation trends are currently running higher than long-term averages for the year.
* Over the month of June, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 97.8%, meaning market prices stayed below MMR values again this month. Against May, valuation models in June moved down a point on MMR retention. '
* The average daily sales conversion rate rose to 57.4%, a rise over the previous month and higher than is normally seen at this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 51.4% in June over the past two years.
* The average retail listing price for a used vehicle was down 1% over the last four weeks.

==== New ====

* In June, according to data released today by Kelley Blue Book, the average transaction price (ATP) for a new vehicle in the U.S. was $48,644. The June ATP was higher by $266 (0.6%) from the revised May ATP and lower by $307 (0.6%) compared to June 2023. In June, the new-vehicle ATP was lower year over year for the ninth straight month. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/june-2024-atp-report/</ref>
* Incentives – measured as a percent of ATP – were lower in June than in May. The average new-vehicle incentive package, which includes discounts and rebates, fell to 6.4% of ATP ($3,102) last month, down from 6.7% in May but higher than one year ago when incentives were 4.2% of ATP ($2,036).
* In June, 40% of vehicles transacted for below $40,000, and 26% transacted or between $30-and-$40,000. According to Kelley Blue Book estimates, among the top ten best-selling vehicles in June, half carried ATPs below $40,000 – the Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-V, Toyota Camry, Honda Civic and Chevrolet Trax.
* In June, the average price paid for a new electric vehicle (EV) was $56,371, an increase of 0.9% compared to May. EV prices in June were lower by 2.5% versus June 2023.

== Inventory ==
Historical Releases: [[US Auto Inventory: Historical Releases]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="3" |Date
! colspan="2" |New Vehicles
! colspan="2" |Used Vehicles
|-
!Inventory
!Days Supply
!Inventory
!Days Supply
|-
!Millions
!
!Millions
!
|-
|2024-09-01
|2.76<ref name=":7">https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-september-2024/</ref><ref name=":7" />
|81
|2.15<ref name=":8">https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-september-2024/</ref>
|47
|-
|2024-08-01
|2.84<ref name=":0">https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-august-2024/</ref>
|77
|2.18<ref name=":0" />
|42
|-
|2024-07-01
|2.79<ref name=":3" />
|68
|2.17<ref name=":2">https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-july/</ref>
|41
|-
|2024-06-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-05-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-04-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-03-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-02-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-01-01
|2.61
|
|
|
|-
|2023-12-01
|2.66<ref name=":5">https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-december-2023/</ref>
|70
|2.39<ref name=":6">https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-december-2023/</ref>
|56
|-
|2023-11-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-10-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-09-01
|2.07
|
|
|
|-
|2023-08-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-07-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-06-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-05-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-04-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-03-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-02-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2023-01-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-12-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-11-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-10-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-09-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-08-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-07-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-06-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-05-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-04-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-03-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-02-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2022-01-01
|
|
|
|
|}

=== September 2024 ===

==== New ====
A new-vehicle days’ supply of 81 at the start of October is just one day more than the 80 days we saw back at the beginning of October 2019. Days’ supply continues to run below the average 83 days we saw in the first six months of the year.

The total U.S. supply of available unsold new vehicles opened October at 2.76 million units. This is up 25% year over year but down 20% from 2019 levels. Keep in mind that most dealerships have approximately 37% fresh MY25 product on their showroom floors, with automakers providing more incentives to move older metal.
[[File:724aaf7fe1ef299cae82b8f5939b18da35765a66 2 1035x508.png|center|thumb|766x766px]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-28 200302.png|center|thumb|771x771px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-september-2024/]]

==== Used ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-28 204542.png|center|thumb|779x779px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-september-2024/]]

=== June 2024 ===

==== Used ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-07-24 103454.png|center|thumb|720x720px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Cox-Automotive-Mid-Year-Review-Presentation.pdf]]

==== New ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-07-24 103421.png|center|thumb|703x703px|[https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Cox-Automotive-Mid-Year-Review-Presentation.pdf https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Cox-Automotive-Mid-Year-Review-Presentation.pd]]]

*

== Affordability ==
[[US Auto Affordability: Historical Releases]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-11 165655.png|alt=|center|thumb|719x719px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/march-2024-vai/]]
[[File:Screenshot 2023-10-10 110727.png|center|thumb|698x698px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Sept-26-Q3-2023-Cox-Automotive-Industry-Insights-Presentation.pdf]]

=== September 2024 ===

* The estimated average auto loan rate declined in August by 41 basis points to 9.95%1, the lowest average rate in more than a year.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/august-2024-vai/</ref>
* The typical payment in August declined 1.6% to $737, the lowest in two years.
* The number of median weeks of income needed to purchase the average new vehicle declined to 36.1 weeks from a downwardly revised 36.8 weeks in July, reaching the lowest level since May 2021.

=== June 2024 ===

* The typical monthly payment increased by 0.6% to $756, and the number of median weeks of income needed to purchase the average new vehicle rose to 37.2 weeks from 37.1 weeks in May. The average monthly payment had previously peaked at $795 in December 2022.
* The estimated number of weeks of median income needed to purchase the average new vehicle in June was down 6.3% from the same time last year.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/june-2024-vai/</ref>

=== March 2024 ===
Along with the decrease in average rate, income growth continued, the average new-vehicle transaction price declined, and incentives increased. The typical payment decreased by 1.2%, and the number of median weeks of income needed to purchase the average new vehicle declined to 36.9 weeks from an upwardly revised 37.5 weeks in February.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/march-2024-vai/</ref>

* The typical new vehicle loan interest rate declined 15 basis points to 10.47% in March, which was the lowest average since September. The median income grew 0.3%, while the average new-vehicle transaction price declined 0.1%. As a result of these changes, the estimated typical monthly payment decreased by 1.2% to $744 from $753 in February. The average monthly payment peaked at $795 in December 2022.
* The estimated number of weeks of median income needed to purchase the average new vehicle in March was down 6.2% from last year.

== Auto Loan Performance ==
[[US Auto Loan Performance: Historical Releases]]

=== Auto Loans ===
[[File:Auto Loansa24.png|center|thumb|1194x1194px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/views/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/AutoLoans_1?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
! colspan="4" |Consumer Auto Loan
! colspan="4" |Motor Vehicle Loans Owned and Securitized<ref>https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i4ExbgRuG_nwDKnq1gJyTMi21X2sCf7qdA49zbHTDQU/edit?gid=1458970427#gid=1458970427&range=K1</ref>
|-
!Trillions
!Q/Q Level Trillions
!Q/Q Ann
!Y/Y
!Billions
!Q/Q Level Billions
!Q/Q Ann
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-04-01
|1.626
|0.010
|2.50
|2.78
|1,565
|10.73
|2.79%
|1.95%
|-
|2024-01-01
|1.616
|0.009
|2.26
|3.46
|1,554
| -0.92
| -0.24%
|2.51%
|-
|2023-10-01
|1.607
|0.012
|3.04
|3.54
|1,555
|3.00
|0.78%
|3.72%
|-
|2023-07-01
|1.595
|0.013
|3.33
|4.66
|1,552
|17.18
|4.55%
|5.11%
|-
|2023-04-01
|1.582
|0.020
|5.22
|5.33
|1,535
|18.75
|5.04%
|6.22%
|-
|2023-01-01
|1.562
|0.010
|2.60
|6.33
|1,516
|16.89
|4.58%
|7.50%
|-
|2022-10-01
|1.552
|0.028
|7.55
|6.45
|1,499
|22.59
|6.26%
|7.67%
|-
|2022-07-01
|1.524
|0.022
|5.99
|5.61
|1,477
|31.71
|9.07%
|7.11%
|-
|2022-04-01
|1.502
|0.033
|9.29
|6.15
|1,445
|34.64
|10.19%
|6.80%
|-
|2022-01-01
|1.469
|0.011
|3.05
|6.30
|1,411
|17.85
|5.23%
|13.69%
|-
|2021-10-01
|1.458
|0.015
|4.22
|6.11
|1,393
|13.84
|4.08%
|13.74%
|-
|2021-07-01
|1.443
|0.028
|8.15
|6.10
|1,379
|25.74
|7.83%
|13.17%
|-
|2021-04-01
|1.415
|0.033
|9.90
|5.60
|1,353
|112.37
|41.45%
|13.00%
|-
|2021-01-01
|1.382
|0.008
|2.35
|2.37
|1,241
|16.31
|5.44%
|4.80%
|-
|2020-10-01
|1.374
|0.014
|4.18
|3.31
|1,224
|6.00
|1.99%
|3.40%
|-
|2020-07-01
|1.360
|0.020
|6.11
|3.03
|1,218
|21.02
|7.21%
|3.66%
|-
|2020-04-01
|1.340
| -0.010
| -2.93
|3.08
|1,197
|13.51
|4.64%
|3.23%
|-
|2020-01-01
|1.350
|0.020
|6.15
|5.47
|1,184
| -0.23
| -0.08%
|3.47%
|-
|2019-10-01
|1.330
|0.010
|3.06
|4.72
|1,184
|8.70
|3.00%
|3.91%
|}

=== Deliquencies ===
[[File:Auto Deliquenciesa24.png|center|thumb|1145x1145px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/investmentwiki/viz/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/AutoDeliquencies#1</ref>]]

=== Credit Quality ===
[[File:Auto Loan Originations by Credit Scorea24.png|center|thumb|1197x1197px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/investmentwiki/viz/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/AutoLoanOriginationsbyRiskScore#1</ref><ref>https://public.tableau.com/views/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/AutoLoanOriginationsbyRiskScore2?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]
[[File:Share Auto Loan Originations by Credit Scorea24.png|center|thumb|1195x1195px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/investmentwiki/viz/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/AutoLoanOriginationsbyRiskScore#1</ref><ref>https://public.tableau.com/views/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/ShareAutoLoanOriginationsbyFICOScore2?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]

=== Cox Developments ===

==== June 2024 ====
Auto loan performance deteriorated in June, as delinquencies and defaults increased.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-07-15-24/</ref>

* In June, 1.81% of auto loans were severely delinquent, an increase from 1.80% in May, but not back to the higher levels we saw in March and February.
* Defaults increased 3.6% in total in June and were up 12.6% year over year.
* The June annualized default rate was 2.92%, 10 basis points (BPs) higher than May and higher than the 2.49% annualized default rate in 2019.
* The year-to-date default rate is 3.07%, which is 17 BPs higher than the default rate in 2019.

==== March 2024 ====

* In March, 1.88% of auto loans were severely delinquent. That was down from 2.04% in February and was the highest rate for March, dating back to at least 2006.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-04-15-24/</ref>
* 7.25% of subprime loans were severely delinquent in March, down from 7.99% in February, but also at the highest rate for March dating back to at least 2006.
* Defaults increased in March by 8.5% from February and were up 33.4% year over year. Defaults of subprime auto loans increased by 13.9% and were up 28% year over year. '''The annualized default rate for March was 3.40%, which was 26 basis points higher than February and higher than the 2.90% annualized default rate in March 2019.''' '''The year-to-date default rate is 3.23%, which is equivalent to the default rate in 2010.'''
* Credit access is tighter than a year ago in all channels and most lender types. By channel, certified pre-owned loans saw the most loosening, while used loans through independent dealers saw the least amount of loosening. On a year-over-year basis, all channels were tighter, with used loans through franchised dealers having seen the most tightening. Among lenders, captives loosened the most in March, but auto-focused finance companies were the only lenders to be looser year over year.

== Credit Standards<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STDSAUTO</ref> ==
Tightening Standards are increasing significantly for auto loan since last year, but still below levels seen during the pandemic.

=== Q1 2023<ref>https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202301.htm</ref> ===

* Moderate net shares of banks reported tighter standards for auto.
* Banks reported tightening most queried terms on auto loans, on net. In particular, a moderate net share of banks reported wider interest rate spreads on such loans, while modest net shares reported higher minimum repayments and higher minimum credit score requirements.

== Forecasts ==

=== Forecast 2024 ===

==== September 2024 ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-11 170706.png|center|thumb|805x805px]]

==== June 2024 ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-07-24 104651.png|center|thumb|790x790px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Cox-Automotive-Mid-Year-Review-Presentation.pdf]]

==== March 2024 ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-18 105744.png|center|thumb|790x790px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/2024-cox-automotive-forecasts-full-year/]]

==== December 2023 ====
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-12 131349.png|center|thumb|784x784px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/2024-cox-automotive-forecasts-full-year/]]

=== Forecast 2023 ===

==== March 2023 ====

===== Sales =====

* With '''new-vehicle''' inventory levels improving as demand slows, Cox Automotive forecasts 3% YoY new-vehicle sales growth in 2023, with the market hitting '''14.2 million units.'''
* For '''used cars''', it expects YoY growth of -1.66% to reach '''36.2 million''' units in 2023. <ref name=":1">https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Jan-12-2023-Cox-Automotive-Industry-Insights-and-Forecast-Call-Presentation.pdf High Quality Source</ref>

===== Prices =====

* JPM research expects prices to decline by 2.5% to 5% for new cars and by 10% to 20% for used cars in 2023.<ref>https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/when-will-car-prices-drop#:~:text=Average%20prices%20were%20up%2042.5,to%2020%25%20for%20used%20cars</ref>
* Cox Automotive expects a 1.6% increase in the December YoY MANHEIM USED VEHICLE VALUE INDEX. <ref name=":1" />

==== June 2023 ====

* The total '''used-vehicle sales''' forecast for 2023 has been revised down slightly by Cox Automotive to be '''35.7 million, 2% below 2022.'''
* Cox Automotive raised its '''new car sales full-year forecast to 15 million''', from 14.2 million in March, as deliveries to businesses and rental-car companies, which evaporated during pandemic scarcity, rebounded.
* Used car index down -1.1% Y/Y on December 2023.

==== September 2023 ====

* '''The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index forecast is expected to finish the year down 2.2% year over year.''' Risks remain in the fourth quarter, including the United Auto Workers strike, a possible economic slowdown, and political uncertainty that puts downward pressure on consumer sentiment.<ref name=":4">https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/september-2023-muvvi/</ref>
* The total '''used-vehicle sales''' forecast for 2023 remained the same by Cox Automotive to be '''35.7 million, 2% below 2022.'''
* Cox Automotive raised its '''new car sales full-year forecast to 15.4 million''', from 15 million in June.

* 
== Auto Industry behaviour during recession ==
See: [[Auto Industry Cyclicality]]

== References ==

Import Prices

2024-12-10T16:03:26Z

MagaNH6:

== Developments ==
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
!Import Prices
!Import Prices M/M
!Import Prices Y/Y
|-
!Default Units Index 2000=100 NSA<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IR</ref>
!
!
|-
|2024-10-01
|141.20
|0.28
|0.79
|-
|2024-09-01
|140.80
| -0.42
| -0.14
|-
|2024-08-01
|141.40
| -0.28
|0.78
|-
|2024-07-01
|141.80
|0.14
|1.72
|-
|2024-06-01
|141.60
|0.07
|1.58
|-
|2024-05-01
|141.50
| -0.14
|1.29
|-
|2024-04-01
|141.70
|0.85
|1.00
|-
|2024-03-01
|140.50
|0.57
|0.43
|-
|2024-02-01
|139.70
|0.22
| -0.92
|-
|2024-01-01
|139.40
|0.72
| -1.34
|-
|2023-12-01
|138.40
| -0.72
| -2.40
|-
|2023-11-01
|139.40
| -0.50
| -1.55
|-
|2023-10-01
|140.10
| -0.64
| -1.82
|-
|2023-09-01
|141.00
|0.50
| -1.47
|-
|2023-08-01
|140.30
|0.65
| -2.97
|-
|2023-07-01
|139.40
|0.00
| -4.78
|-
|2023-06-01
|139.40
| -0.21
| -6.13
|-
|2023-05-01
|139.70
| -0.43
| -5.74
|-
|2023-04-01
|140.30
|0.29
| -4.88
|-
|2023-03-01
|139.90
| -0.78
| -4.70
|-
|2023-02-01
|141.00
| -0.21
| -1.12
|-
|2023-01-01
|141.30
| -0.35
|0.86
|-
|2022-12-01
|141.80
|0.14
|3.20
|-
|2022-11-01
|141.60
| -0.77
|2.68
|-
|2022-10-01
|142.70
| -0.28
|4.24
|-
|2022-09-01
|143.10
| -1.04
|6.08
|-
|2022-08-01
|144.60
| -1.23
|7.67
|-
|2022-07-01
|146.40
| -1.41
|8.77
|-
|2022-06-01
|148.50
|0.20
|10.66
|-
|2022-05-01
|148.20
|0.47
|11.60
|-
|2022-04-01
|147.50
|0.48
|12.51
|-
|2022-03-01
|146.80
|2.95
|13.01
|}

== References ==

Energy Industry

2024-12-10T16:02:16Z

MagaNH6:

== Price Developments ==

=== '''Annual''' ===
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
Average Prices
! colspan="2" |WTI<ref name=":5" />
! colspan="2" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":6" />
! colspan="2" |Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price<ref name=":7" />
|-
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
!Y/Y
!Dollars per Gallon NSA
!Y/Y
!Dollars per Million BTU NSA
!Y/Y
|-
|2023-01-01
|78.03
| -17.78
|3.54
| -10.30
|2.54
| -60.67
|-
|2022-01-01
|94.90
|39.29
|3.95
|31.37
|6.45
|65.54
|-
|2021-01-01
|68.14
|73.99
|3.01
|38.76
|3.89
|92.17
|-
|2020-01-01
|39.16
| -31.28
|2.17
| -16.76
|2.03
| -20.87
|-
|2019-01-01
|56.99
| -12.63
|2.60
| -4.22
|2.56
| -18.77
|-
|2018-01-01
|65.23
|28.40
|2.72
|12.59
|3.15
|5.51
|-
|2017-01-01
|50.80
|17.34
|2.42
|12.66
|2.99
|18.76
|-
|2016-01-01
|43.29
| -11.02
|2.14
| -11.77
|2.52
| -4.12
|-
|2015-01-01
|48.66
| -47.78
|2.43
| -27.65
|2.62
| -39.99
|-
|2014-01-01
|93.17
| -4.91
|3.36
| -4.20
|4.37
|17.19
|-
|2013-01-01
|97.98
|4.18
|3.51
| -3.14
|3.73
|35.46
|-
|2012-01-01
|94.05
| -0.87
|3.62
|2.76
|2.75
| -31.07
|-
|2011-01-01
|94.88
|19.38
|3.52
|26.58
|4.00
| -8.55
|-
|2010-01-01
|79.48
|28.29
|2.78
|18.23
|4.37
|10.83
|-
|2009-01-01
|61.95
| -37.85
|2.35
| -27.51
|3.94
| -55.51
|-
|2008-01-01
|99.67
|37.78
|3.25
|16.07
|8.86
|27.20
|-
|2007-01-01
|72.34
|9.52
|2.80
|8.71
|6.97
|3.51
|-
|2006-01-01
|66.05
|16.63
|2.57
|13.29
|6.73
| -22.50
|-
|2005-01-01
|56.64
|36.46
|2.27
|22.58
|8.69
|47.40
|-
|2004-01-01
|41.51
|33.57
|1.85
|18.65
|5.89
|7.71
|-
|2003-01-01
|31.08
|18.68
|1.56
|16.11
|5.47
|62.08
|-
|2002-01-01
|26.18
|0.78
|1.35
| -5.32
|3.38
| -14.74
|-
|2001-01-01
|25.98
| -14.47
|1.42
| -4.30
|3.96
| -8.17
|-
|2000-01-01
|30.38
|57.04
|1.48
|30.64
|4.31
|89.59
|-
|1999-01-01
|19.34
|34.13
|1.14
|10.31
|2.27
|8.89
|-
|1998-01-01
|14.42
| -30.02
|1.03
| -14.13
|2.09
| -16.12
|}

=== Monthly ===
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
Average Prices
! colspan="3" |WTI<ref name=":5" />
! colspan="3" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":6" />
! colspan="3" |Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price<ref name=":7" />
|-
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Dollars per Gallon NSA
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Dollars per Million BTU NSA
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-11-01
|69.95
| -2.83
| -9.96
|3.05
| -2.68
| -7.99
|
|
|
|-
|2024-10-01
|71.99
|2.49
| -15.94
|3.14
| -2.40
| -13.17
|
|
|
|-
|2024-09-01
|70.24
| -8.40
| -21.46
|3.21
| -5.16
| -16.21
|
|
|
|-
|2024-08-01
|76.68
| -6.26
| -5.79
|3.39
| -2.73
| -11.74
|1.98
| -4.56
| -23.31
|-
|2024-07-01
|81.80
|2.54
|7.53
|3.48
|0.84
| -3.14
|2.08
| -17.98
| -18.64
|-
|2024-06-01
|79.77
| -0.31
|13.55
|3.46
| -4.11
| -3.25
|2.53
|19.34
|16.23
|-
|2024-05-01
|80.02
| -6.24
|11.79
|3.60
| -0.22
|1.35
|2.12
|32.60
| -1.23
|-
|2024-04-01
|85.35
|5.01
|7.43
|3.61
|5.40
| 0.22
|1.60
|7.11
| -26.08
|-
|2024-03-01
|81.28
|5.22
|10.92
|3.43
|6.66
|0.12
|1.49
| -13.27
| -35.25
|-
|2024-02-01
|77.25
|4.18
|0.55
|3.21
|4.46
| -5.22
|1.72
| -45.80
| -27.68
|-
|2024-01-01
|74.15
|3.13
| -5.08
|3.08
| -1.88
| -7.91
|3.18
|25.89
| -2.96
|-
|2023-12-01
|71.90
| -7.45
| -5.94
|3.13
| -5.55
| -2.37
|2.52
| -6.82
| -54.37
|-
|2023-11-01
|77.69
| -9.28
| -7.92
|3.32
| -8.16
| -9.96
|2.71
| -9.18
| -50.33
|-
|2023-10-01
|85.64
| -4.24
| -2.18
|3.61
| -5.81
| -5.29
|2.98
|13.08
| -47.33
|-
|2023-09-01
|89.43
|9.88
|6.14
|3.84
| -0.10
|3.68
|2.64
|2.07
| -66.54
|-
|2023-08-01
|81.39
|6.99
| -13.11
|3.84
|6.76
| -3.40
|2.58
|1.26
| -70.67
|-
|2023-07-01
|76.07
|8.28
| -25.14
|3.60
|0.73
| -21.10
|2.55
|17.17
| -64.98
|-
|2023-06-01
|70.25
| -1.86
| -38.83
|3.57
|0.45
| -27.55
|2.18
|1.41
| -71.74
|-
|2023-05-01
|71.58
| -9.91
| -34.66
|3.56
| -1.33
| -20.00
|2.15
| -0.76
| -73.64
|-
|2023-04-01
|79.45
|8.42
| -21.94
|3.60
|5.29
| -12.31
|2.16
| -6.18
| -67.21
|-
|2023-03-01
|73.28
| -4.62
| -32.46
|3.42
|0.97
| -18.95
|2.31
| -3.15
| -52.93
|-
|2023-02-01
|76.83
| -1.65
| -16.16
|3.39
| 1.50
| -3.64
|2.38
| -27.27
| -49.26
|-
|2023-01-01
|78.12
|2.20
| -6.13
|3.34
|4.02
|0.72
|3.27
| -40.81
| -25.33
|-
|2022-12-01
|76.44
| -9.40
|6.60
|3.21
| -12.89
| -2.93
|5.53
|1.44
|47.15
|}

==== February 2023 ====
*Oil prices have come down significantly since the peak to around $76, below pre-war levels<ref name=":0">https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/45</ref>. Prices increased in January 2023 from 75 to 77, a small increase.
*Futures market pricing more prices decline in coming months.<ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html</ref>
*Gasoline prices decreased in February 2023. <ref>https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=w</ref>

*Natural gas prices have come down also below pre-war levels.<ref name=":0" />

==== March 2023 ====

* Oil prices were mainly flat during march, just a small decline registered, from 77.69 at the begining of march to 75.61 at the end. The prices had a low of $66 at mid march. <ref>https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM</ref>
* Gasoline prices went from 3.457 to 3.533. Small increase of 2%.<ref name=":1">https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=w</ref>
* Natural Gas prices went from 2.81 to 2.10. A 25% decline in prices.
* Despite the OPEC oil cuts, the future markets expect prices to decline to $76 at year end from current levels ($80.7).<ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html</ref>

==== April 2023 ====

* Oil prices were mainly flat during march at around $75. The prices had a high of $73 at mid march. <ref name=":2">https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM</ref>
* Gasoline prices went from 3.533 to 3.765. Small increase of 6%.<ref name=":1" />
* Natural Gas prices went from 2.22 to 2.32. A 4.5% increase.<ref name=":3">https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM</ref>
* The future markets continue to expect lower oil prices, now at $69.43 at year end. <ref name=":4">https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html</ref>

==== May 2023 ====
* Oil prices were very volatile during may, however it ended the month significantly lower than last month at about $68. <ref name=":2" />
* Gasoline prices went from 3.711 to 3.684. Small decline of almost 1%.<ref name=":1" />
* Natural Gas prices went from 2.32 to 2.26. Relatively flat during the month.<ref name=":3" />
* The future markets continue to expect lower oil prices, now at $66.95 at year end. <ref name=":4" />

==== June 2023 ====
*Oil prices were slightly down -1.9 m/m, but were volatile in a range from $72 to $67<ref name=":23">https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM</ref><ref name=":5">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
*Gasoline prices were basically unchanged at 0.5% m/m, but increased a bit in the middle of the month. <ref name=":13">https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=w</ref><ref name=":6">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
*Natural gas prices were up 1.4% , in a range from 2.16 to 2.80.<ref name=":322">https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM</ref><ref name=":7">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>
*Futures market is now pricing an increase in oil prices, at $72.32 at year end. <ref name=":422">https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html</ref>

==== July 2023 ====

* Oil prices went up on average a significant 8.3% m/m in July 2023, going from $69.80 to $81.80. Still -25.1% y/y/. <ref name=":5" />
* Gasoline prices went up on average 0.7% m/m during July 2023, and a -21.1% y/y. <ref name=":6" />
* Natural gas prices went up on average 17.2% m/m in July 2023, and -65% y/y. <ref name=":7" />
* Futures market is now pricing an increase in oil prices, at $80.59 at year end.<ref name=":422" />

==== August 2023 ====

* Oil prices went up on average a significant 7% m/m in August 2023. Still a negative 13.1% y/y/. <ref name=":5" />
* Gasoline prices went up on average 6.7% m/m during August 2023, and a -3.4% y/y. <ref name=":6" />
* Natural gas prices went up on average 1.3% m/m in August 2023, and -70.7% y/y. <ref name=":7" />
* Futures market is now pricing an increase in oil prices, at $86.01 at year end.<ref name=":422" />

==== September 2023 ====

* Oil prices went up on average a significant 9.9% m/m in september 2023. And it had a 6.1% increase over september 2022. <ref name=":5" />
* Gasoline prices went down -0.1% m/m, but it up 3.7% y/y.. <ref name=":6" />
* Natural gas prices went up on average 2% m/m in september 2023, and -66.6% y/y. <ref name=":7" />
* Futures market is now pricing an increase in oil prices, at $83.74 at year end.<ref name=":422" />

==== October 2023 ====

* Oil prices declined on average 8.5% m/m in October 2023. And it had a 4% declined over october 2023. <ref name=":5" />
* Gasoline prices went down -9.5% m/m, and -7.2y/y. <ref name=":6" />
* Natural gas prices went up on average 13.1% m/m in september 2023, and -47.3% y/y. <ref name=":7" />
* Futures market is now pricing an increase in oil prices, at $77.78 at 2023 year end, and $74 for 2024.<ref name=":422" />

==== November 2023 ====

* Oil prices declined on average 9.28% m/m in November 2023. And it had a 7.9% declined over october 2022. <ref name=":5" />
* Gasoline prices went down -8.2% m/m, and -10 y/y. <ref name=":6" />
* Natural gas prices went down on average 9.2 % m/m in september 2023, and -50.3 % y/y. <ref name=":7" />
* Futures market is now pricing an increase in oil prices, at $70.67 for 2024.<ref name=":422" />

== References ==

Food Market

2024-12-10T15:54:28Z

MagaNH6:

== Price Developments FAO Food Price Index ==
Historical: [[FAO Food Price Index: 2023]]

''The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices weighted by the average export shares of each of the groups over 2014-2016.''

'''Methodology''': https://www.fao.org/docs/worldfoodsituationlibraries/default-document-library/fo-expanded-sf.pdf?sfvrsn=3c4de4a_11
[[File:Home graph 3 jul24.jpg|alt=|center|thumb|597x597px|https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/]]
[[File:Home graph 1 jul24.jpg|center|thumb|285x285px]]

=== Annual ===
{| class="wikitable"
!Year
!Food Price Index
!Meat Price Index
!Dairy Price Index
!Cereals Price Index
!Oils Price Index
!Sugar Price Index
|-
|1990
|63.0
|81.5
|42.6
|58.1
|45.5
|77.7
|-
|1991
|62.1
|80.6
|45.5
|57.9
|49.0
|55.5
|-
|1992
|63.9
|77.5
|54.8
|61.0
|53.0
|56.0
|-
|1993
|61.9
|74.1
|48.6
|59.0
|54.0
|62.0
|-
|1994
|66.9
|75.3
|47.4
|61.9
|71.9
|74.9
|-
|1995
|76.6
|84.6
|62.7
|70.8
|80.0
|82.2
|-
|1996
|77.6
|83.8
|61.6
|83.7
|69.9
|74.0
|-
|1997
|70.6
|78.9
|59.4
|66.5
|70.7
|70.4
|-
|1998
|64.7
|65.8
|55.8
|58.9
|83.9
|55.2
|-
|1999
|55.2
|61.8
|48.3
|53.1
|58.2
|38.8
|-
|2000
|53.3
|60.3
|54.5
|51.4
|42.9
|50.6
|-
|2001
|55.0
|61.7
|60.9
|51.8
|42.5
|53.5
|-
|2002
|53.1
|55.2
|46.1
|55.6
|55.1
|42.6
|-
|2003
|57.8
|58.3
|54.5
|59.4
|62.6
|43.9
|-
|2004
|65.6
|67.6
|69.8
|64.0
|69.6
|44.3
|-
|2005
|67.4
|71.8
|77.2
|60.8
|64.4
|61.2
|-
|2006
|72.6
|70.5
|73.1
|71.2
|70.5
|91.4
|-
|2007
|94.3
|76.9
|122.4
|100.9
|107.3
|62.4
|-
|2008
|117.5
|90.2
|132.3
|137.6
|141.1
|79.2
|-
|2009
|91.7
|81.2
|91.4
|97.2
|94.4
|112.2
|-
|2010
|106.7
|91.0
|111.9
|107.5
|122.0
|131.7
|-
|2011
|131.9
|105.3
|129.9
|142.2
|156.5
|160.9
|-
|2012
|122.8
|105.0
|111.7
|137.4
|138.3
|133.3
|-
|2013
|120.1
|106.2
|140.9
|129.1
|119.5
|109.5
|-
|2014
|115.0
|112.2
|130.2
|115.8
|110.6
|105.2
|-
|2015
|93.0
|96.7
|87.1
|95.9
|89.9
|83.2
|-
|2016
|91.9
|91.0
|82.6
|88.3
|99.4
|111.6
|-
|2017
|98.0
|97.7
|108.0
|91.0
|101.9
|99.1
|-
|2018
|95.9
|94.9
|107.3
|100.8
|87.8
|77.4
|-
|2019
|95.1
|100.0
|102.8
|96.6
|83.2
|78.6
|-
|2020
|98.1
|95.5
|101.8
|103.1
|99.4
|79.5
|-
|2021
|125.8
|107.7
|119.6
|131.2
|164.9
|109.3
|-
|2022
|144.7
|118.8
|149.5
|154.7
|187.8
|114.5
|-
|2023
|124.7
|114.7
|123.7
|130.9
|126.3
|145.0
|}
[[File:Home graph 2 jul24.jpg|alt=|thumb|https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/]]

=== Monthly ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Date<ref name=":0" />
! colspan="3" |Food Price Index
!Meat
!Dairy
!Cereals
!Oils
!Sugar
|-
!
!Index
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Index
!Index
!Index
!Index
!Index
|-
|2024-11
|127.50
|0.47
|5.72
|118.1
|139.9
|111.4
|164.1
|126.4
|-
|2024-10
|126.90
|1.85
|5.14
|119.1
|139.0
|114.4
|152.7
|129.6
|-
|2024-09
|124.60
|2.38
|2.38
|119.9
|136.5
|113.6
|142.4
|126.3
|-
|2024-08
|121.70
| 0.66
| -0.08
|122.0
|131.3
|110.2
|136.1
|113.9
|-
|2024-07
|120.90
| -0.08
| -2.81
|120.0
|127.9
|110.7
|135.0
|119.5
|-
|2024-06
|121.00
|0.41
| -1.63
|118.1
|127.9
|115.2
|131.8
|119.4
|-
|2024-05
|120.50
|1.09
| -3.21
|116.7
|126.3
|118.7
|127.8
|117.1
|-
|2024-04
|119.20
|0.25
| -7.17
|116.6
|123.8
|111.6
|130.9
|126.6
|-
|2024-03
|118.90
|1.28
| -7.11
|114.9
|124.0
|110.9
|130.6
|133.4
|-
|2024-02
|117.40
| -0.17
| -10.18
|112.5
|120.7
|113.8
|120.9
|140.8
|-
|2024-01
|117.60
| -1.26
| -10.50
|108.9
|118.7
|119.9
|122.5
|136.4
|-
|2023-12
|119.10
| -1.24
| -10.52
|111.2
|118.7
|122.8
|122.3
|134.2
|-
|2023-11
|120.60
| -0.08
| -11.32
|111.6
|116.5
|121.0
|124.1
|161.4
|-
|2023-10
|120.70
| -0.82
| -11.70
|112.0
|114.6
|124.8
|120.0
|159.2
|-
|2023-09
|121.70
| -0.08
| -11.36
|113.4
|112.0
|126.3
|120.9
|162.7
|-
|2023-08
|121.80
| -2.09
| -12.18
|114.5
|114.3
|125.0
|125.8
|148.2
|-
|2023-07
|124.40
|1.14
| -12.15
|117.9
|119.1
|125.9
|129.8
|146.3
|-
|2023-06
|123.00
| -1.20
| -21.00
|118.6
|119.9
|126.6
|115.8
|152.2
|-
|2023-05
|124.50
| -3.04
| -21.55
|117.4
|121.7
|129.3
|118.7
|157.2
|-
|2023-04
|128.40
|0.31
| -19.14
|116.0
|129.3
|136.1
|130.0
|149.4
|-
|2023-03
|128.00
| -2.07
| -20.10
|114.1
|135.3
|138.6
|131.8
|127.0
|-
|2023-02
|130.70
| -0.53
| -7.76
|112.1
|138.7
|146.7
|135.9
|125.2
|-
|2023-01
|131.40
| -1.28
| -3.17
|110.5
|144.7
|147.5
|140.4
|116.8
|-
|2022-12
|133.10
| -2.13
| -0.45
|111.9
|148.6
|147.3
|144.6
|117.2
|-
|2022-11
|136.00
| -0.51
|0.44
|114.1
|147.4
|150.1
|154.7
|114.4
|-
|2022-10
|136.70
| -0.44
|2.55
|116.5
|149.2
|152.3
|151.3
|108.6
|-
|2022-09
|137.30
| -1.01
|6.35
|119.9
|152.8
|147.9
|152.6
|109.7
|-
|2022-08
|138.70
| -2.05
|8.36
|120.3
|153.1
|145.6
|163.3
|110.5
|-
|2022-07
|141.60
| -9.06
|13.83
|123.3
|155.6
|147.3
|168.8
|112.8
|-
|2022-06
|155.70
| -1.89
|24.16
|125.4
|158.2
|166.3
|211.8
|117.3
|-
|2022-05
|158.70
| -0.06
|23.60
|122.5
|149.7
|173.5
|229.2
|120.4
|-
|2022-04
|158.80
| -0.87
|30.06
|121.3
|150.7
|169.7
|237.5
|121.5
|-
|2022-03
|160.20
|13.06
|34.51
|119.3
|149.6
|170.1
|251.8
|117.9
|-
|2022-02
|141.70
|4.42
|21.63
|113.7
|145.0
|145.3
|201.7
|110.5
|-
|2022-01
|135.70
|1.50
|19.56
|111.7
|134.3
|140.6
|185.9
|112.7
|}

=== July 2024 ===
The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 120.8 points in July 2024, marginally below its revised figure for June, as a decrease in the price index for cereals outweighed increases in the price indices for vegetable oil, meat products, and sugar, while the dairy index was almost unchanged. Overall, the FFPI remained 3.1 percent lower than its corresponding value one year ago and 24.7 percent below its peak of 160.3 points reached in March 2022.<ref name=":0" />

=== June 2024 ===
The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 120.6 points in June 2024, unchanged from its revised figure for May, as increases in the price indices for vegetable oil, sugar and dairy products balanced out a decrease in the price index for cereals, while the meat index was almost unchanged. Despite this firming after three consecutive monthly upticks, the FFPI remained 2.1 percent lower than its corresponding value one year ago and 24.8 percent below its peak of 160.3 points reached in March 2022.<ref name=":0" />

=== May 2024 ===
The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 120.4 points in May 2024, up 1.1 points (0.9 percent) from its revised April level, as increases in the price indices for cereals and dairy products slightly more than offset decreases in those for sugar and vegetable oils, while the meat price index was almost unchanged. Although it registered a third consecutive monthly uptick in May, the FFPI remained down 3.4 percent from its corresponding value one year ago and 24.9 percent below the peak of 160.2 points reached in March 2022.<ref name=":0" />

=== April 2024 ===
The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 119.1 points in April 2024, up 0.3 points (0.3 percent) from its revised March level, as an increase in the price index for meat and smaller upturns of vegetable oil and cereal indices slightly more than offset decreases in those for sugar and dairy products. Although it registered a second monthly uptick in April following a seven-month long declining trend, the FFPI was down 9.6 points (7.4 percent) from its corresponding value one year ago.<ref name=":0" />

==== March 2024 ====

* The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 118.3 points in March 2024, up 1.3 points (1.1 percent) from its revised February level, as increases in the price indices for vegetable oils, dairy products and meat slightly more than offset decreases in those for sugar and cereals.
* The index, although it registered a first uptick in March following a seven-month long declining trend, was down 9.9 points (7.7percent) from its corresponding value one year ago.<ref name=":0">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>

==== February 2024 ====

* The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 117.3 points in February 2024, down 0.9 points (0.7 percent) from its revised January level, as decreases in the price indices for cereals and vegetable oils slightly more than offset increases in those for sugar, meat and dairy products.
* The index was down 13.8 points (10.5 percent) from its corresponding value one year ago.<ref name=":1" />

==== January 2024 ====

* The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 118.0 points in January 2024, down 1.2 points (1.0 percent) from its revised December level, as decreases in the price indices for cereals and meat more than offset an increase in the sugar price index, while those for dairy and vegetable oils only registered slight adjustments.<ref name=":1">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>
* The index stood 13.7 points (10.4 percent) below its corresponding value one year ago.

== References ==

Housing Market: US

2024-12-10T15:47:05Z

MagaNH6: /* Rent Developments */

Forum: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/u-s-real-estate/126

Data: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzvIAz6CBS78vH1moNA-foaZA0HWOb-AG1DfvCUJDio/edit#gid=1917211317 Housing]

== Housing Market as a Leading Indicator ==
Housing accounts for a significant portion of investment spending by American households and overall economic activity. And has a significant impact on other industries, including labor, construction, raw materials, consumer durables, banking, and real estate. According to Leamer<ref>https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w13428/w13428.pdf</ref>, in six of the ten recessions since 1950, residential investment was the greatest contributor to weakness prior to the recession with an average contribution of 22% of weakness in gdp 1 year prior to the recession. And that an unusual residential investment contribution to GDP growth in one quarter predicts twice as much contribution from some other sector the next quarter.

In the residential investment data displayed in Figure 12 there is one false positive in 1951-2 and another in 1966 -67. In both cases housing was weakening substantially but there was no recession. Why is that? Those two false positives occurred coincidentally with a big ramp-up in defense spending for the Korean War and the Vietnam War. Alarms of forthcoming recessions that were met by a response that prevented the recessions from occurring.

Also important to point out that is volumes that matter for real GDP accounting, not prices. Prices can matter indirectly through a wealth effect, but be a little skeptical about this. And that the sluggishness of price adjustments is what makes the volume cycle so extreme, and what makes housing so important in recessions.

== US Housing Shortage ==

== NAHB Index ==
'''Methodology'''

The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI is a weighted average of three separate component indices: Present Single-Family Sales, Single-Family Sales for the Next Six Months, and Traffic of Prospective Buyers. Each month, a panel of builders rates the first two on a scale of “good,” “fair” or “poor” and the last on a scale of “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low”. An index is calculated for each series by applying the formula “(good – poor + 100)/2” or, for Traffic, “(high/very high – low/very low + 100)/2”.

Each resulting index is first seasonally adjusted, then weighted to produce the HMI. The weights are .5920 for Present Sales, .1358 for Sales for the Next Six Months, and .2722 for Traffic. The weights were chosen to maximize the correlation with starts through the following six months.

The HMI can range between 0 and 100.
[[File:Screenshot 2024-08-26 121655.png|alt=|center|thumb|671x671px|https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/nahb-housing-market-index]]
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Date
!NAHB Housing Market Index<ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nahb-housing-market-index-218</ref>
|-
|2024-07-01
|41
|-
|2024-06-01
|43
|-
|2024-05-01
|45
|-
|2024-04-01
|51
|-
|2024-03-01
|51
|-
|2024-02-01
|48
|-
|2024-01-01
|44
|-
|2023-12-01
|37
|-
|2023-11-01
|34
|-
|2023-10-01
|40
|-
|2023-09-01
|44
|-
|2023-08-01
|50
|-
|2023-07-01
|56
|-
|2023-06-01
|55
|-
|2023-05-01
|50
|-
|2023-04-01
|45
|-
|2023-03-01
|44
|-
|2023-02-01
|42
|-
|2023-01-01
|35
|-
|2022-12-01
|31
|-
|2022-11-01
|33
|-
|2022-10-01
|38
|-
|2022-09-01
|46
|-
|2022-08-01
|49
|-
|2022-07-01
|55
|-
|2022-06-01
|67
|-
|2022-05-01
|69
|-
|2022-04-01
|77
|-
|2022-03-01
|79
|-
|2022-02-01
|81
|-
|2022-01-01
|83
|-
|2021-12-01
|84
|-
|2021-11-01
|83
|-
|2021-10-01
|80
|-
|2021-09-01
|76
|-
|2021-08-01
|75
|-
|2021-07-01
|80
|-
|2021-06-01
|81
|-
|2021-05-01
|83
|-
|2021-04-01
|83
|-
|2021-03-01
|82
|-
|2021-02-01
|84
|-
|2021-01-01
|83
|}

== Building Permits ==
[[File:Fredgraph (15)permitsa24.png|alt=|center|thumb|1275x1275px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT]]
{| class="wikitable"
!
! colspan="4" |Authorized

in Permit-Issuing Places: Total Units<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT</ref>
|-
!Date
!Total (K) SAAR
!M/M Level Change
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-09-01
|1,425
| -45.00
| -3.06
| -5.94
|-
|2024-08-01
|1,470
|64.00
|4.55
| -6.84
|-
|2024-07-01
|1,406
| -48.00
| -3.30
| -6.33
|-
|2024-06-01
|1,454
|55.00
|3.93
| -2.61
|-
|2024-05-01
|1,399
| -41.00
| -2.85
| -8.68
|-
|2024-04-01
|1,440
| -45.00
| -3.03
| -2.04
|-
|2024-03-01
|1,485
| -78.00
| -4.99
| -0.54
|-
|2024-02-01
|1,563
|55.00
|3.65
| -3.52
|-
|2024-01-01
|1,508
| -22.00
| -1.44
|4.50
|-
|2023-12-01
|1,530
|22.00
|1.46
|9.29
|-
|2023-11-01
|1,508
| -26.00
| -1.69
|7.56
|-
|2023-10-01
|1,534
|19.00
|1.25
| -1.67
|-
|2023-09-01
|1,515
| -63.00
| -3.99
| -6.08
|-
|2023-08-01
|1,578
|77.00
|5.13
|2.33
|-
|2023-07-01
|1,501
|8.00
|0.54
| -12.68
|-
|2023-06-01
|1,493
| -39.00
| -2.55
| -14.44
|-
|2023-05-01
|1,532
|62.00
|4.22
| -10.51
|-
|2023-04-01
|1,470
| -23.00
| -1.54
| -19.89
|-
|2023-03-01
|1,493
| -127.00
| -7.84
| -20.54
|-
|2023-02-01
|1,620
|177.00
|12.27
| -12.90
|-
|2023-01-01
|1,443
|43.00
|3.07
| -24.65
|-
|2022-12-01
|1,400
| -2.00
| -0.14
| -26.82
|-
|2022-11-01
|1,402
| -158.00
| -10.13
| -20.61
|-
|2022-10-01
|1,560
| -53.00
| -3.29
| -9.25
|-
|2022-09-01
|1,613
|71.00
|4.60
| -0.74
|-
|2022-08-01
|1,542
| -177.00
| -10.30
| -12.88
|-
|2022-07-01
|1,719
| -26.00
| -1.49
|4.06
|-
|2022-06-01
|1,745
|33.00
|1.93
|5.31
|-
|2022-05-01
|1,712
| -123.00
| -6.70
|1.84
|-
|2022-04-01
|1,835
| -44.00
| -2.34
|5.58
|-
|2022-03-01
|1,879
|19.00
|1.02
|8.49
|-
|2022-02-01
|1,860
| -55.00
| -2.87
|8.45
|-
|2022-01-01
|1,915
|2.00
|0.10
|1.70
|-
|2021-12-01
|1,913
|147.00
|8.32
|9.69
|-
|2021-11-01
|1,766
|47.00
|2.73
|3.03
|-
|2021-10-01
|1,719
|94.00
|5.78
|6.57
|-
|2021-09-01
|1,625
| -145.00
| -8.19
|0.06
|-
|2021-08-01
|1,770
|118.00
|7.14
|15.76
|-
|2021-07-01
|1,652
| -5.00
| -0.30
|6.86
|-
|2021-06-01
|1,657
| -24.00
| -1.43
|23.84
|-
|2021-05-01
|1,681
| -57.00
| -3.28
|33.41
|-
|2021-04-01
|1,738
|6.00
|0.35
|63.04
|-
|2021-03-01
|1,732
|17.00
|0.99
|27.54
|-
|2021-02-01
|1,715
| -168.00
| -8.92
|18.93
|-
|2021-01-01
|1,883
|139.00
|7.97
|24.95
|}

== Housing Starts ==
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-19 134408.png|center|thumb|902x902px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST</ref>
! colspan="3" |New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units
! colspan="3" |New Privately-Owned Housing Units Under Construction: Total Units
|-
!Thousands of Units SAAR
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Thousands of Units SAAR
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-09-01
|1,354
| -0.51
| -0.66
|1,484
| -1.85
| -11.67
|-
|2024-08-01
|1,361
|7.84
|4.29
|1,512
| -2.26
| -10.90
|-
|2024-07-01
|1,262
| -5.04
| -14.32
|1,547
| -1.46
| -9.11
|-
|2024-06-01
|1,329
|1.06
| -6.08
|1,570
| -1.38
| -7.27
|-
|2024-05-01
|1,315
| -4.50
| -16.93
|1,592
| -1.18
| -5.91
|-
|2024-04-01
|1,377
|6.00
|0.66
|1,611
| -1.83
| -4.22
|-
|2024-03-01
|1,299
| -15.98
| -3.20
|1,641
| -0.97
| -2.38
|-
|2024-02-01
|1,546
|12.35
|10.11
|1,657
| -0.78
| -1.72
|-
|2024-01-01
|1,376
| -12.24
|1.10
|1,670
| -0.54
| -1.30
|-
|2023-12-01
|1,568
|3.84
|17.01
|1,679
| -0.24
| -0.77
|-
|2023-11-01
|1,510
|10.62
| 6.34
|1,683
| 0.18
| -0.71
|-
|2023-10-01
|1,365
|0.15
| -5.21
|1,680
| 0.00
| -1.81
|-
|2023-09-01
|1,363
| 4.44
| -7.28
|1,680
| -1.00
| -1.18
|-
|2023-08-01
|1,305
| -11.41
| -14.14
|1,697
| -0.29
| -0.12
|-
|2023-07-01
|1,473
| 4.10
| 5.82
|1,702
|0.53
|1.07
|-
|2023-06-01
|1,415
| -10.61
| -8.24
|1,693
|0.06
|0.24
|-
|2023-05-01
|1,583
| 15.72
| 2.79
|1,692
|0.59
|0.59
|-
|2023-04-01
|1,368
| 1.94
| -25.16
|1,682
| 0.06
|0.60
|-
|2023-03-01
|1,342
| -4.42
| -20.02
|1,681
| -0.30
|3.13
|-
|2023-02-01
|1,404
| 3.16
| -19.40
|1,686
| -0.35
|6.57
|-
|2023-01-01
|1,361
| 1.57
| -20.50
|1,692
|0.00
|9.02
|-
|2022-12-01
|1,340
| -5.63
| -23.73
|1,692
| -0.18
|10.95
|-
|2022-11-01
|1,420
| -1.39
| -16.67
|1,695
| -0.94
|13.53
|-
|2022-10-01
|1,440
| -2.04
| -9.26
|1,711
| 0.65
|16.87
|-
|2022-09-01
|1,470
| -3.29
| -5.95
|1,700
|0.06
|18.14
|-
|2022-08-01
|1,520
| 9.20
| -4.70
|1,699
| 0.89
|20.50
|-
|2022-07-01
|1,392
| -9.73
| -13.00
|1,684
| -0.30
|21.41
|-
|2022-06-01
|1,542
| 0.13
| -5.86
|1,689
|0.42
|23.02
|-
|2022-05-01
|1,540
| -15.75
| -4.17
|1,682
|0.60
|25.62
|-
|2022-04-01
|1,828
| 8.94
|22.52
|1,672
|2.58
|26.38
|-
|2022-03-01
|1,678
| -3.67
|0.60
|1,630
|3.03
|24.81
|-
|2022-02-01
|1,742
| 1.75
|23.81
|1,582
|1.93
|22.92
|-
|2022-01-01
|1,712
| -2.56
|4.45
|1,552
|1.77
|21.06
|-
|2021-12-01
|1,757
|3.11
|7.46
|1,525
|2.14
|20.94
|-
|2021-11-01
|1,704
|7.37
|9.72
|1,493
|1.98
|19.82
|-
|2021-10-01
|1,587
| 1.54
|2.85
|1,464
|1.74
|19.12
|-
|2021-09-01
|1,563
| -2.01
|6.84
|1,439
|2.06
|17.95
|-
|2021-08-01
|1,595
| -0.31
|13.85
|1,410
|1.66
|16.24
|-
|2021-07-01
|1,600
| -2.32
|5.06
|1,387
|1.02
|15.49
|-
|2021-06-01
|1,638
|1.93
|30.62
|1,373
|2.54
|16.06
|-
|2021-05-01
|1,607
| 7.71
|52.61
|1,339
|1.21
|13.47
|-
|2021-04-01
|1,492
| -10.55
|60.26
|1,323
|1.30
|10.71
|-
|2021-03-01
|1,668
| 18.55
| 33.23
|1,306
|1.48
|7.58
|-
|2021-02-01
|1,407
| -14.15
| -8.46
|1,287
|0.39
|6.10
|-
|2021-01-01
|1,639
|0.24
|3.87
|1,282
|1.67
|7.46
|}

== Sales ==
Main Article: [[Home Sales]]

== House Price Developments ==

=== Historical: [[Case-Shiller Home Price Index: 2023]] ===
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are based on observed changes in home prices. They are designed to measure increases or decreases in the market value of residential real estate in 20 defined MSAs and three price tiers – low, middle, and high (see Tables 1 and 1a on the following pages). In contrast, the indices are, specifically, not intended to measure recovery costs after disasters, construction or repair costs, or other such related items.

The indices are calculated monthly, using a three-month moving average algorithm. Home sales pairs are accumulated in rolling three-month periods, on which the repeat sales methodology is applied. The index point for each reporting month is based on sales pairs found for that month and the preceding two months. For example, the December 2005 index point is based on repeat sales data for October, November, and December of 2005. This averaging methodology is used to offset delays that can occur in the flow of sales price data from county deed recorders and to keep sample sizes large enough to create meaningful price change averages.

Methodology: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-corelogic-cs-home-price-indices.pdf
[[File:Screenshot 2024-08-12 093109.png|alt=|center|thumb|841x841px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA]]
'''Y/Y Change'''
[[File:Fredgraphhp1124.png|alt=|center|thumb|833x833px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA]]

{| class="wikitable"
!
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA</ref>
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index
|-
!Date
!Index
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Index
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Index
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-09-01
|324.80
| -0.10
|3.89
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-08-01
|325.13
| -0.13
|4.28
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-07-01
|325.54
|0.03
|4.87
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-06-01
|325.43
|0.48
|5.49
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-05-01
|323.86
|0.93
|5.99
|333.21
|0.99
|6.81
|350.60
|0.98
|7.65
|-
|2024-04-01
|320.88
|1.24
|6.37
|329.95
|1.38
|7.25
|347.19
|1.42
|8.11
|-
|2024-03-01
|316.97
|1.33
|6.53
|325.47
|1.58
|7.50
|342.33
|1.66
|8.35
|-
|2024-02-01
|312.80
|0.62
|6.54
|320.40
|0.93
|7.44
|336.74
|1.01
|8.27
|-
|2024-01-01
|310.88
| -0.05
|6.16
|317.46
| -0.08
|6.72
|333.37
| 0.01
|7.56
|-
|2023-12-01
|311.05
| -0.38
|5.68
|317.72
| -0.27
|6.25
|333.35
| -0.16
|7.13
|-
|2023-11-01
|312.23
| -0.24
|5.18
|318.58
| -0.22
|5.51
|333.90
| -0.08
|6.43
|-
|2023-10-01
|312.99
|0.11
|4.80
|319.27
|0.14
|4.95
|334.16
|0.25
|5.86
|-
|2023-09-01
|312.63
|0.27
|4.06
|318.81
|0.25
|3.97
|333.34
|0.35
|4.87
|-
|2023-08-01
|311.78
|0.44
|2.70
|318.00
|0.37
|2.18
|332.17
|0.40
|3.04
|-
|2023-07-01
|310.42
|0.62
|1.11
|316.83
|0.61
|0.17
|330.83
|0.64
|0.99
|-
|2023-06-01
|308.50
|0.97
| 0.10
|314.91
|0.94
| -1.20
|328.72
|0.94
| -0.50
|-
|2023-05-01
|305.55
|1.28
| -0.27
|311.97
|1.41
| -1.72
|325.67
|1.41
| -1.06
|-
|2023-04-01
|301.68
|1.39
| 0.02
|307.64
|1.62
| -1.64
|321.16
|1.64
| -1.08
|-
|2023-03-01
|297.55
|1.34
|0.87
|302.75
|1.52
| -1.00
|315.97
|1.59
| -0.56
|-
|2023-02-01
|293.61
|0.26
|2.24
|298.21
|0.25
|0.54
|311.02
|0.35
|0.69
|-
|2023-01-01
|292.84
| -0.51
|3.86
|297.46
| -0.52
|2.75
|309.93
| -0.39
|2.77
|-
|2022-12-01
|294.34
| -0.85
|5.66
|299.02
| -0.96
|4.76
|311.16
| -0.82
|4.61
|-
|2022-11-01
|296.86
| -0.60
|7.55
|301.93
| -0.75
|6.93
|313.73
| -0.62
|6.54
|-
|2022-10-01
|298.66
| -0.59
|9.14
|304.20
| -0.79
|8.77
|315.67
| -0.69
|8.18
|-
|2022-09-01
|300.43
| -1.04
|10.68
|306.62
| -1.47
|10.54
|317.87
| -1.40
|9.83
|-
|2022-08-01
|303.59
| -1.12
|12.95
|311.20
| -1.61
|13.16
|322.37
| -1.59
|12.25
|-
|2022-07-01
|307.02
| -0.38
|15.64
|316.30
| -0.76
|16.06
|327.59
| -0.84
|14.94
|-
|2022-06-01
|308.18
|0.59
|18.01
|318.72
|0.41
|18.68
|330.37
|0.37
|17.43
|-
|2022-05-01
|306.39
|1.58
|19.95
|317.43
|1.49
|20.54
|329.14
|1.38
|19.10
|-
|2022-04-01
|301.62
|2.25
|20.74
|312.76
|2.27
|21.30
|324.67
|2.18
|19.76
|-
|2022-03-01
|294.98
|2.72
|20.79
|305.80
|3.10
|21.23
|317.75
|2.87
|19.60
|-
|2022-02-01
|287.17
|1.85
|20.05
|296.61
|2.46
|20.31
|308.87
|2.42
|18.74
|-
|2022-01-01
|281.95
|1.21
|19.25
|289.49
|1.42
|18.99
|301.58
|1.39
|17.39
|-
|2021-12-01
|278.58
|0.93
|18.87
|285.43
|1.08
|18.47
|297.46
|1.02
|16.92
|-
|2021-11-01
|276.01
|0.87
|18.81
|282.38
|0.96
|18.26
|294.46
|0.91
|16.82
|-
|2021-10-01
|273.64
|0.81
|19.07
|279.68
|0.83
|18.46
|291.81
|0.82
|17.17
|-
|2021-09-01
|271.43
|0.99
|19.68
|277.38
|0.86
|19.11
|289.43
|0.78
|17.90
|-
|2021-08-01
|268.78
|1.23
|19.96
|275.01
|0.91
|19.66
|287.19
|0.77
|18.61
|-
|2021-07-01
|265.50
|1.66
|19.83
|272.53
|1.48
|20.02
|285.00
|1.31
|19.21
|-
|2021-06-01
|261.16
|2.24
|18.82
|268.56
|1.98
|19.22
|281.33
|1.80
|18.66
|-
|2021-05-01
|255.44
|2.25
|16.92
|263.35
|2.13
|17.27
|276.37
|1.94
|16.78
|-
|2021-04-01
|249.81
|2.30
|15.00
|257.84
|2.22
|15.20
|271.10
|2.05
|14.79
|-
|2021-03-01
|244.21
|2.09
|13.49
|252.24
|2.31
|13.54
|265.67
|2.13
|13.18
|-
|2021-02-01
|239.21
|1.17
|12.19
|246.54
|1.34
|12.14
|260.12
|1.25
|11.91
|-
|2021-01-01
|236.43
|0.88
|11.32
|243.29
|0.97
|11.22
|256.91
|0.98
|11.03
|}

== Affordability ==
Affordability worst since the 2008 housing crisis.
[[File:Affordability tool.png|center|thumb|1030x1030px|https://www.atlantafed.org/center-for-housing-and-policy/data-and-tools/home-ownership-affordability-monitor]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-23 144903.png|alt=|center|thumb|1007x1007px|https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/]]

== Housing Inventory ==

=== Total Listings ===
[[File:Screenshot 2024-08-26 132607.png|alt=|center|thumb|655x655px|In Thousands <ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/total-housing-inventory#:~:text=Total%20Housing%20Inventory%20in%20the%20United%20States%20averaged%202279.84%20Thousands,United%20States%20Total%20Housing%20Inventory.</ref>]]

=== Active Listings ===
{| class="wikitable"
!Date
!Active Listings<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS</ref>
!M/M %
!Y/Y %
|-
|2024-09-01
|940,980
|3.48
|33.96
|-
|2024-08-01
|909,344
|2.86
|35.77
|-
|2024-07-01
|884,066
|5.25
|36.61
|-
|2024-06-01
|839,992
|6.64
|36.73
|-
|2024-05-01
|787,722
|7.27
|35.24
|-
|2024-04-01
|734,318
|5.68
|30.44
|-
|2024-03-01
|694,820
|4.53
|23.54
|-
|2024-02-01
|664,716
| -0.13
|14.75
|-
|2024-01-01
|665,569
| -6.81
|7.90
|-
|2023-12-01
|714,176
| -5.47
|4.88
|-
|2023-11-01
|755,489
|2.36
|0.71
|-
|2023-10-01
|738,082
|5.08
| -1.95
|-
|2023-09-01
|702,430
|4.88
| -3.97
|-
|2023-08-01
|669,750
|3.49
| -7.85
|-
|2023-07-01
|647,135
|5.34
| -6.44
|-
|2023-06-01
|614,326
|5.47
|7.09
|-
|2023-05-01
|582,441
|3.46
|21.48
|-
|2023-04-01
|562,966
|0.09
|48.16
|-
|2023-03-01
|562,444
| -2.90
|58.88
|-
|2023-02-01
|579,264
| -6.10
|67.17
|-
|2023-01-01
|616,865
| -9.41
|63.64
|-
|2022-12-01
|680,925
| -9.23
|52.91
|-
|2022-11-01
|750,200
| -0.34
|46.45
|-
|2022-10-01
|752,741
|2.90
|33.06
|-
|2022-09-01
|731,496
|0.65
|26.54
|-
|2022-08-01
|726,779
|5.08
|26.48
|-
|2022-07-01
|691,652
|20.57
|26.52
|-
|2022-06-01
|573,650
|19.64
|16.49
|-
|2022-05-01
|479,462
|26.18
|7.10
|-
|2022-04-01
|379,978
|7.33
| -12.78
|-
|2022-03-01
|354,016
|2.17
| -19.65
|-
|2022-02-01
|346,511
| -8.08
| -25.47
|-
|2022-01-01
|376,970
| -15.35
| -29.11
|-
|2021-12-01
|445,303
| -13.07
| -27.27
|-
|2021-11-01
|512,241
| -9.45
| -25.09
|-
|2021-10-01
|565,707
| -2.14
| -22.93
|-
|2021-09-01
|578,070
|0.60
| -22.86
|-
|2021-08-01
|574,638
|5.11
| -26.29
|-
|2021-07-01
|546,686
|11.02
| -33.56
|-
|2021-06-01
|492,425
|10.00
| -43.50
|-
|2021-05-01
|447,662
|2.75
| -51.78
|-
|2021-04-01
|435,663
| -1.12
| -53.74
|-
|2021-03-01
|440,589
| -5.23
| -52.99
|-
|2021-02-01
|464,919
| -12.57
| -49.92
|-
|2021-01-01
|531,775
| -13.15
| -44.12
|-
|2020-12-01
|612,300
| -10.46
| -40.78
|-
|2020-11-01
|683,822
| -6.84
| -40.19
|-
|2020-10-01
|734,040
| -2.05
| -39.25
|-
|2020-09-01
|749,395
| -3.87
| -38.82
|-
|2020-08-01
|779,558
| -5.26
| -36.89
|-
|2020-07-01
|822,834
| -5.59
| -33.62
|-
|2020-06-01
|871,557
| -6.12
| -28.55
|-
|2020-05-01
|928,370
| -1.42
| -21.39
|-
|2020-04-01
|941,733
|0.47
| -17.19
|-
|2020-03-01
|937,319
|0.97
| -16.01
|-
|2020-02-01
|928,343
| -2.45
| -15.81
|-
|2020-01-01
|951,675
| -7.95
| -14.31
|-
|2019-12-01
|1,033,887
| -9.57
| -12.82
|}

== Morgage Purchase Index ==
The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.
[[File:Screenshot 2024-08-26 133353.png|alt=|center|thumb|660x660px|https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/mba-purchase-index]]

== Rent Developments ==

=== Apartment List ===
Historical: [[Apartment List National Rent: 2023]]

Seasonality: https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/best-time-of-year-to-rent
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date<ref name=":0" />
! colspan="3" |Overall
! colspan="3" |1 Bedroom
! colspan="3" |2 Bedroom
|-
!Rents
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Rents
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Rents
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|11/1/2024
|1382
| -0.86
| -0.65
|1214
| -0.82
| -0.65
|1368
| -0.80
| -0.58
|-
|10/1/2024
|1394
| -0.71
| -0.71
|1224
| -0.81
| -0.73
|1379
| -0.79
| -0.79
|-
|9/1/2024
|1404
| -0.50
| -0.78
|1234
| -0.48
| -0.72
|1390
| -0.50
| -0.71
|-
|8/1/2024
|1411
| -0.14
| -0.84
|1240
| -0.16
| -0.80
|1397
| -0.14
| -0.78
|-
|7/1/2024
|1413
|0.21
| -0.84
|1242
|0.24
| -0.80
|1399
|0.21
| -0.78
|-
|6/1/2024
|1410
|0.43
| -0.77
|1239
|0.41
| -0.80
|1396
|0.43
| -0.78
|-
|5/1/2024
|1404
|0.50
| -0.78
|1234
|0.57
| -0.72
|1390
|0.58
| -0.71
|-
|4/1/2024
|1397
|0.58
| -0.71
|1227
|0.57
| -0.73
|1382
|0.51
| -0.79
|-
|3/1/2024
|1389
|0.65
| -0.79
|1220
|0.58
| -0.81
|1375
|0.66
| -0.79
|-
|2/1/2024
|1380
|0.22
| -0.86
|1213
|0.25
| -0.82
|1366
|0.22
| -0.87
|-
|1/1/2024
|1377
| -0.22
| -0.86
|1210
| -0.25
| -0.82
|1363
| -0.22
| -0.87
|-
|12/1/2023
|1380
| -0.79
| -0.93
|1213
| -0.74
| -0.90
|1366
| -0.73
| -0.94
|-
|11/1/2023
|1391
| -0.93
| -1.07
|1222
| -0.89
| -1.05
|1376
| -1.01
| -1.15
|-
|10/1/2023
|1404
| -0.78
| -1.27
|1233
| -0.80
| -1.28
|1390
| -0.71
| -1.28
|-
|9/1/2023
|1415
| -0.56
| -1.39
|1243
| -0.56
| -1.43
|1400
| -0.57
| -1.48
|-
|8/1/2023
|1423
| -0.14
| -1.32
|1250
| -0.16
| -1.34
|1408
| -0.14
| -1.33
|-
|7/1/2023
|1425
|0.28
| -0.84
|1252
|0.24
| -0.87
|1410
|0.21
| -0.91
|-
|6/1/2023
|1421
|0.42
| -0.14
|1249
|0.48
| -0.08
|1407
|0.50
| -0.07
|-
|5/1/2023
|1415
|0.57
|0.86
|1243
|0.57
|0.89
|1400
|0.50
|0.86
|-
|4/1/2023
|1407
|0.50
|1.66
|1236
|0.49
|1.64
|1393
|0.51
|1.75
|-
|3/1/2023
|1400
|0.57
|2.34
|1230
|0.57
|2.33
|1386
|0.58
|2.36
|-
|2/1/2023
|1392
|0.22
|2.65
|1223
|0.25
|2.60
|1378
|0.22
|2.68
|-
|1/1/2023
|1389
| -0.29
|2.97
|1220
| -0.33
|2.95
|1375
| -0.29
|3.00
|-
|12/1/2022
|1393
| -0.92
|3.49
|1224
| -0.89
|3.55
|1379
| -0.93
|3.53
|-
|11/1/2022
|1406
| -1.13
|4.07
|1235
| -1.12
|4.04
|1392
| -1.14
|4.11
|-
|10/1/2022
|1422
| -0.91
|5.41
|1249
| -0.95
|5.40
|1408
| -0.91
|5.47
|-
|9/1/2022
|1435
| -0.49
|7.25
|1261
| -0.47
|7.23
|1421
| -0.42
|7.33
|-
|8/1/2022
|1442
|0.35
|10.08
|1267
|0.32
|10.08
|1427
|0.28
|10.02
|-
|7/1/2022
|1437
|0.98
|12.35
|1263
|1.04
|12.47
|1423
|1.07
|12.49
|-
|6/1/2022
|1423
|1.43
|14.39
|1250
|1.46
|14.36
|1408
|1.44
|14.29
|-
|5/1/2022
|1403
|1.37
|15.76
|1232
|1.32
|15.68
|1388
|1.39
|15.67
|-
|4/1/2022
|1384
|1.17
|16.60
|1216
|1.16
|16.70
|1369
|1.11
|16.61
|-
|3/1/2022
|1368
|0.88
|17.02
|1202
|0.84
|17.04
|1354
|0.89
|17.03
|-
|2/1/2022
|1356
|0.52
|17.30
|1192
|0.59
|17.44
|1342
|0.52
|17.31
|-
|1/1/2022
|1349
|0.22
|17.51
|1185
|0.25
|17.56
|1335
|0.23
|17.52
|-
|12/1/2021
|1346
| -0.37
|17.76
|1182
| -0.42
|17.73
|1332
| -0.37
|17.77
|-
|11/1/2021
|1351
|0.15
|17.89
|1187
|0.17
|17.87
|1337
|0.15
|17.80
|-
|10/1/2021
|1349
|0.82
|17.20
|1185
|0.77
|17.09
|1335
|0.83
|17.11
|-
|9/1/2021
|1338
|2.14
|15.84
|1176
|2.17
|15.86
|1324
|2.08
|15.73
|-
|8/1/2021
|1310
|2.42
|13.32
|1151
|2.49
|13.29
|1297
|2.53
|13.37
|-
|7/1/2021
|1279
|2.81
|10.93
|1123
|2.74
|10.86
|1265
|2.68
|10.87
|-
|6/1/2021
|1244
|2.64
|8.36
|1093
|2.63
|8.43
|1232
|2.67
|8.45
|-
|5/1/2021
|1212
|2.11
|5.21
|1065
|2.21
|5.24
|1200
|2.21
|5.26
|-
|4/1/2021
|1187
|1.54
|2.50
|1042
|1.46
|2.46
|1174
|1.47
|2.44
|-
|3/1/2021
|1169
|1.12
|0.52
|1027
|1.18
|0.49
|1157
|1.14
|0.52
|-
|2/1/2021
|1156
|0.70
| -0.17
|1015
|0.69
| -0.29
|1144
|0.70
| -0.26
|-
|1/1/2021
|1148
|0.44
| -0.52
|1008
|0.40
| -0.59
|1136
|0.44
| -0.53
|-
|12/1/2020
|1143
| -0.26
| -0.87
|1004
| -0.30
| -0.89
|1131
| -0.35
| -0.96
|-
|11/1/2020
|1146
| -0.43
| -0.87
|1007
| -0.49
| -0.89
|1135
| -0.44
| -0.79
|-
|10/1/2020
|1151
| -0.35
| -0.95
|1012
| -0.30
| -0.88
|1140
| -0.35
| -0.87
|-
|9/1/2020
|1155
| -0.09
| -1.11
|1015
| -0.10
| -1.07
|1144
|0.00
| -1.04
|-
|8/1/2020
|1156
|0.26
| -1.37
|1016
|0.30
| -1.36
|1144
|0.26
| -1.38
|-
|7/1/2020
|1153
|0.44
| -1.54
|1013
|0.50
| -1.55
|1141
|0.44
| -1.55
|-
|6/1/2020
|1148
| -0.35
| -1.46
|1008
| -0.40
| -1.47
|1136
| -0.35
| -1.47
|-
|5/1/2020
|1152
| -0.52
| -0.26
|1012
| -0.49
| -0.30
|1140
| -0.52
| -0.26
|-
|4/1/2020
|1158
| -0.43
|1.14
|1017
| -0.49
|1.09
|1146
| -0.43
|1.15
|-
|3/1/2020
|1163
|0.43
|2.38
|1022
|0.39
|2.40
|1151
|0.35
|2.40
|-
|2/1/2020
|1158
|0.35
|2.57
|1018
|0.39
|2.62
|1147
|0.44
|2.69
|-
|1/1/2020
|1154
|0.09
|2.58
|1014
|0.10
|2.53
|1142
|0.00
|2.51
|-
|12/1/2019
|1153
| -0.26
|2.40
|1013
| -0.30
|2.43
|1142
| -0.17
|2.51
|-
|11/1/2019
|1156
| -0.52
|2.48
|1016
| -0.49
|2.52
|1144
| -0.52
|2.51
|-
|10/1/2019
|1162
| -0.51
|2.56
|1021
| -0.49
|2.51
|1150
| -0.52
|2.50
|-
|9/1/2019
|1168
| -0.34
|2.73
|1026
| -0.39
|2.70
|1156
| -0.34
|2.66
|-
|8/1/2019
|1172
|0.09
|2.81
|1030
|0.10
|2.90
|1160
|0.09
|2.84
|-
|7/1/2019
|1171
|0.52
|2.99
|1029
|0.59
|3.00
|1159
|0.52
|3.02
|-
|6/1/2019
|1165
|0.87
|3.10
|1023
|0.79
|3.13
|1153
|0.87
|3.13
|-
|5/1/2019
|1155
|0.87
|3.13
|1015
|0.89
|3.15
|1143
|0.88
|3.16
|-
|4/1/2019
|1145
|0.79
|3.34
|1006
|0.80
|3.39
|1133
|0.80
|3.28
|-
|3/1/2019
|1136
|0.62
|3.46
|998
|0.60
|3.42
|1124
|0.63
|3.40
|-
|2/1/2019
|1129
|0.36
|3.48
|992
|0.30
|3.55
|1117
|0.27
|3.52
|-
|1/1/2019
|1125
| -0.09
|3.40
|989
|0.00
|3.45
|1114
| 0.00
|3.44
|-
|12/1/2018
|1126
| -0.18
|3.30
|989
| -0.20
|3.34
|1114
| -0.18
|3.24
|-
|11/1/2018
|1128
| -0.44
|3.11
|991
| -0.50
|3.12
|1116
| -0.53
|3.05
|-
|10/1/2018
|1133
| -0.35
|3.09
|996
| -0.30
|3.11
|1122
| -0.36
|3.13
|-
|9/1/2018
|1137
| -0.26
|2.99
|999
| -0.20
|2.99
|1126
| -0.18
|3.11
|-
|8/1/2018
|1140
|0.26
|2.98
|1001
|0.20
|2.98
|1128
|0.27
|3.01
|-
|7/1/2018
|1137
|0.62
|2.34
|999
|0.71
|2.36
|1125
|0.63
|2.37
|-
|6/1/2018
|1130
|0.89
|2.17
|992
|0.81
|2.16
|1118
|0.90
|2.19
|-
|5/1/2018
|1120
|1.08
|2.10
|984
|1.13
|2.07
|1108
|1.00
|2.03
|-
|4/1/2018
|1108
|0.91
|2.40
|973
|0.83
|2.31
|1097
|0.92
|2.43
|-
|3/1/2018
|1098
|0.64
|2.14
|965
|0.73
|2.22
|1087
|0.74
|2.16
|-
|2/1/2018
|1091
|0.28
|1.87
|958
|0.21
|1.91
|1079
|0.19
|1.79
|-
|1/1/2018
|1088
| -0.18
|1.68
|956
| -0.10
|1.70
|1077
| -0.19
|1.70
|-
|12/1/2017
|1090
| -0.37
|
|957
| -0.42
|
|1079
| -0.37
|
|-
|11/1/2017
|1094
| -0.45
|
|961
| -0.52
|
|1083
| -0.46
|
|-
|10/1/2017
|1099
| -0.45
|
|966
| -0.41
|
|1088
| -0.37
|
|-
|9/1/2017
|1104
| -0.27
|
|970
| -0.21
|
|1092
| -0.27
|
|-
|8/1/2017
|1107
| -0.36
|
|972
| -0.41
|
|1095
| -0.36
|
|-
|7/1/2017
|1111
|0.45
|
|976
|0.51
|
|1099
|0.46
|
|-
|6/1/2017
|1106
|0.82
|
|971
|0.73
|
|1094
|0.74
|
|-
|5/1/2017
|1097
|1.39
|
|964
|1.37
|
|1086
|1.40
|
|-
|4/1/2017
|1082
|0.65
|
|951
|0.74
|
|1071
|0.66
|
|-
|3/1/2017
|1075
|0.37
|
|944
|0.43
|
|1064
|0.38
|
|-
|2/1/2017
|1071
|0.09
|
|940
|0.00
|
|1060
|0.09
|
|-
|1/1/2017
|1070
|
|
|940
|
|
|1059
|
|
|}
[[File:Screenshot 2024-08-12 093640.png|alt=|center|thumb|714x714px|https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data]]
<ref name=":0" />
[[File:Screenshot 2024-08-12 093621.png|alt=|center|thumb|686x686px|https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data]]

==== November 2024 ====
The national median rent dipped by 0.8% in November, as we get further into the slow season for the rental market. Nationwide rent fell $12 to $1,382, and we’re likely to see that number dip one more time before the year ends.<ref name=":0" />

* Rents are down 0.8% month-over-month, down 0.6% year-over-year
* By November 2024, vacancy rate is back up to 6.8 percent, matching the level that it jumped to in the early months of the pandemic.
* Rents are down month-over-month in 88 of 100 largest cities, down year-over-year in 47

==== October 2024 ====
The national median rent dipped by 0.7% in October, as we get further into the slow season for the rental market. The median monthly rent nationally fell by $10, putting it at $1,394, and we’re likely to see that number continue to dip modestly through the remainder of the year.

* Rents are down 0.7% month-over-month, also down 0.7% year-over-year
* In October, our vacancy rate ticked up to 6.8 percent, matching the level that it jumped to in the early months of the pandemic.
* Rents are down month-over-month in 89 of 100 largest cities, down year-over-year in 51

==== September 2024 ====
The national median rent dipped by 0.5% in September, as we turn the corner into the slow season for the rental market. The median rent nationally now stands at $1,405, and we’re likely to see that number continue to dip modestly through the remainder of the year.<ref name=":0" />

* Rents are down 0.5% month-over-month, down 0.7% year-over-year
* As of September, our vacancy index sits at 6.7 percent, the highest level since August 2020.
* Rents are down month-over-month in 80 of 100 largest cities, down year-over-year in 51 
==== August 2024 ====
Rents decrease of -0.1% in August, and today the nationwide median rent stands at $1,412. This signals the end of the rental market’s annual busy season, as well as the second consecutive summer of modest rent growth, as the market remains sluggish thanks to a windfall of new supply. If historical trends hold, rents will continue to fall on a monthly basis for the remainder of the year.<ref name=":0" />

* Rents are down 0.1% month-over-month, down 0.7% year-over-year
* On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index remains slightly elevated, currently standing at 6.7 percent.
* 59 of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw rents fall in August, in line with the broader national trend. And on a year-over-year basis, rent growth is negative for 52 of these cities.

==== July 2024 ====
Rent prices ticked up for the sixth straight month, but rent growth over the course of 2024 as a whole remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market. And while month-over-month rent growth remains positive, it is decelerating. Prices increased just 0.2% in July and today the nationwide median rent stands at $1,414. It is very possible that rent growth will turn flat or negative in August, and stay there for the remainder of the year.<ref name=":0" />

* Rents are up 0.2% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year
* Through July, our vacancy index sits at 6.7 percent, the highest reading since August 2020.
* ationwide rent growth was positive in July 2024, so too was it positive in the majority of large cities across the country; 72 of the nation’s largest 100 cities saw prices rise month-over-month.

==== June 2024 ====
The national median rent increased by 0.4% in June and now stands at $1,411, but the pace of growth slowed slightly this month. This is typically the time of year when rent growth is accelerating amid the busy moving season, so sluggish growth this month indicates that the market is headed for another slow summer.<ref name=":0" />

* Rents are up 0.4% month-over-month, down 0.7% year-over-year
* As of June, our vacancy index sits at 6.7 percent, the highest reading since August 2020.
* As nationwide rent growth was positive in June, so too was local rent growth in the majority of large cities across the county. 80 of the nation’s largest 100 cities saw prices rise month-over-month.

==== May 2024 ====
Rent prices ticked up for the fourth straight month, but rent growth over the course of 2024 as a whole remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market. The national median rent increased by 0.5% in May and now stands at $1,404

* Rents are up 0.5% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year
* Vacancy index sits at 6.7 percent, the highest reading since August 2020. And there’s good reason to expect that it could rise even further during the remainder of the year. Despite a recent slowdown in new permits being issued and new construction projects breaking ground, the number of multifamily units under construction remains near record levels.
* Rents up month-over-month in 80 of 100 largest cities, up year-over-year in 43

==== April 2024 ====
Rent prices ticked up for the third straight month, but rent growth remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market. The national median rent increased by 0.5% in April and now stands at $1,396. <ref name=":0" />

* Rents are up 0.5% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year.
* The national vacancy index continues trending up and stands today at 6.7 percent. After a historic tightening in 2021, multifamily occupancy has been slowly but consistently easing for over two years.
* 83 of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw rents go up in April. But on a year-over-year basis, rent growth is positive for only 43 of these cities

==== March 2024 ====
The rental market continued to pull out of its slow season in March; prices ticked up 0.6 percent this month, the second consecutive monthly increase following six straight months of rent declines. The nationwide median rent now stands at $1,388.<ref name=":0" />

* Rents are up 0.6% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year. Year-to-date, the national median rent is up by a total of 0.9% so far in 2024, which is slightly faster than the 2017 to 2019 average (+0.7%).
* On the supply side of the market, our national vacancy index continues trending up and stands today at 6.7 percent.
* Zooming in a bit, 81 of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw rents go up in March. But on a year-over-year basis, rent growth is positive for only 42 of these cities.

==== February 2024 ====
The rental market turned a corner in February; after six consecutive months of rent declines, prices ticked up 0.2 percent this month and today the nationwide median rent stands at $1,377. The rental market turned a corner in February; after six consecutive months of rent declines, prices ticked up 0.2 percent this month and today the nationwide median rent stands at $1,377.<ref name=":0" />

* Rents are up 0.2% month-over-month, down 1.0% year-over-year
* Zooming in a bit, 57 of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw rents go up in February. But on a year-over-year basis, rent growth is positive for only 43 of these cities. Many of the steepest year-over-year declines remain concentrated in Sun Belt cities that are rapidly expanding their multifamily inventory, such as Austin (-6.7 percent year-over-year), Atlanta (-5.3 percent), and Nashville (-5.1 percent).
* On the supply side of the market, our national vacancy index continues trending up and stands today at 6.6 percent.

==== January 2024 ====
The rental market kicked off the new year with a sixth straight month of negative rent growth, as the nationwide median rent fell by 0.3 percent to $1,373. The recent declines are in line with the rental market’s typical seasonal pattern, as fewer renters are looking to move in the fall and winter, although this year’s dip has been a bit sharper and more prolonged than what we normally see.<ref name=":0">https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data?utm_source=twitter.com</ref>

* Rents are down 0.3% month-over-month, down 1% year-over-year
* Even though the timing of the recent slowdown has been in line with what we typically expect, its magnitude has been a bit more pronounced. The nation’s median rent has fallen by a total of 3.5 percent since last summer’s peak, the second sharpest seasonal dip that we’ve seen in the history of our index (going back to 2017).
* On the supply side of the market, our national vacancy index stands at 6.5 percent, slightly higher than the pre-pandemic average. After a historic tightening in 2021, multifamily occupancy rates have been slowly but consistently easing for over two years. And with this year expected to bring the most new apartment completions in decades, we expect that there will continue to be an abundance of vacant units on the market in the year ahead.
* Regionally, rents fell in January in 73 of the nation’s 100 largest cities, and prices are down year-over-year in 53 of these 100 cities.

=== Zillow ===
[[File:Screenshot 2024-05-14 110051.png|center|thumb|840x840px|https://www.zillow.com/research/april-2024-rent-report-34018/]]

==== June 2024 ====

==== May 2024 ====

* Asking rents increased by 0.6% month over month in April. The pre-pandemic average for this time of year is 0.7% growth.<ref>https://www.zillow.com/research/april-2024-market-report-34050/</ref>
* Rents are now up 3.6% from last year.
* Rents are up from year-ago levels in 48 of the 50 largest metro areas. Annual rent increases are highest in Providence (7.7%), Louisville (7%), Buffalo (6.5%), Cleveland (6.5%) and Hartford (6.2%).

==== April 2024 ====
The typical U.S. rent is now only a whisker away from $2,000, at $1,997, according to the Zillow Observed Rent Index. <ref>https://www.zillow.com/research/april-2024-rent-report-34018/</ref>

* U.S. rents continued to tick up in April. Rents grew 0.6% month over month, slightly slower than the pre-pandemic average for this time of year of 0.7%
* U.S. rents are now up 3.6% from last year. Since the beginning of the pandemic, rents have increased by 31.4%.
* The share of median household income spent on typical rent has moderated slightly to 29.2%, down from a recent peak of 30.3% in June 2022 but still a ways above 27.6% needed before the pandemic.
* Multifamily rents grew 0.631% in April, while single-family rents grew 0.625%. Still, multifamily rents have grown only 2.8% over the past year, well below the 4.8% year-over-year growth seen in single-family rentals in April and softer than multifamily pre-pandemic norms
* The income needed to comfortably afford rent increased by 3.7% year over year in April to $79,889.

== Forecasts ==

=== 2024 ===
'''Zillow:'''

April 2024: Zillow’s home value forecast calls for 1.9% growth over 2024 – slower than long-term norms but a welcome slowdown for first-time buyers compared to the rapid appreciation seen over the pandemic. This is an upward revision from last month’s outlook, which projected growth of 0.9%. With interest rates still elevated, the modest upward revision is mostly the result of a slowdown in the growth of new for-sale listings. After rising at an annual pace of 21% in February, the year-over-year increase in new listings eased in March to just 4%, indicating that the market remains quite tight for would-be homebuyers. It remains to be seen how new listings will fare in April – the Easter holiday falling in March and the fact that February was a leap year are likely clouding the broader picture.

Zillow’s expectation for home sales was revised slightly downward this month as elevated mortgage rates continue to limit housing demand and sales volume. Zillow’s forecast now calls for 4.06 million existing home sales in 2024, slightly below both 2023’s level of 4.09 million and the previous forecast of 4.1 million existing home sales this year. Even after a better-than-expected sales count reading in February, leading indicators of home sales in the coming months suggest continued softness.<ref>https://www.zillow.com/research/home-value-sales-forecast-33822/</ref>

== References ==

Housing Market: US

2024-12-10T15:32:46Z

MagaNH6: /* House Price Developments */

Forum: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/u-s-real-estate/126

Data: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzvIAz6CBS78vH1moNA-foaZA0HWOb-AG1DfvCUJDio/edit#gid=1917211317 Housing]

== Housing Market as a Leading Indicator ==
Housing accounts for a significant portion of investment spending by American households and overall economic activity. And has a significant impact on other industries, including labor, construction, raw materials, consumer durables, banking, and real estate. According to Leamer<ref>https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w13428/w13428.pdf</ref>, in six of the ten recessions since 1950, residential investment was the greatest contributor to weakness prior to the recession with an average contribution of 22% of weakness in gdp 1 year prior to the recession. And that an unusual residential investment contribution to GDP growth in one quarter predicts twice as much contribution from some other sector the next quarter.

In the residential investment data displayed in Figure 12 there is one false positive in 1951-2 and another in 1966 -67. In both cases housing was weakening substantially but there was no recession. Why is that? Those two false positives occurred coincidentally with a big ramp-up in defense spending for the Korean War and the Vietnam War. Alarms of forthcoming recessions that were met by a response that prevented the recessions from occurring.

Also important to point out that is volumes that matter for real GDP accounting, not prices. Prices can matter indirectly through a wealth effect, but be a little skeptical about this. And that the sluggishness of price adjustments is what makes the volume cycle so extreme, and what makes housing so important in recessions.

== US Housing Shortage ==

== NAHB Index ==
'''Methodology'''

The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI is a weighted average of three separate component indices: Present Single-Family Sales, Single-Family Sales for the Next Six Months, and Traffic of Prospective Buyers. Each month, a panel of builders rates the first two on a scale of “good,” “fair” or “poor” and the last on a scale of “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low”. An index is calculated for each series by applying the formula “(good – poor + 100)/2” or, for Traffic, “(high/very high – low/very low + 100)/2”.

Each resulting index is first seasonally adjusted, then weighted to produce the HMI. The weights are .5920 for Present Sales, .1358 for Sales for the Next Six Months, and .2722 for Traffic. The weights were chosen to maximize the correlation with starts through the following six months.

The HMI can range between 0 and 100.
[[File:Screenshot 2024-08-26 121655.png|alt=|center|thumb|671x671px|https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/nahb-housing-market-index]]
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Date
!NAHB Housing Market Index<ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nahb-housing-market-index-218</ref>
|-
|2024-07-01
|41
|-
|2024-06-01
|43
|-
|2024-05-01
|45
|-
|2024-04-01
|51
|-
|2024-03-01
|51
|-
|2024-02-01
|48
|-
|2024-01-01
|44
|-
|2023-12-01
|37
|-
|2023-11-01
|34
|-
|2023-10-01
|40
|-
|2023-09-01
|44
|-
|2023-08-01
|50
|-
|2023-07-01
|56
|-
|2023-06-01
|55
|-
|2023-05-01
|50
|-
|2023-04-01
|45
|-
|2023-03-01
|44
|-
|2023-02-01
|42
|-
|2023-01-01
|35
|-
|2022-12-01
|31
|-
|2022-11-01
|33
|-
|2022-10-01
|38
|-
|2022-09-01
|46
|-
|2022-08-01
|49
|-
|2022-07-01
|55
|-
|2022-06-01
|67
|-
|2022-05-01
|69
|-
|2022-04-01
|77
|-
|2022-03-01
|79
|-
|2022-02-01
|81
|-
|2022-01-01
|83
|-
|2021-12-01
|84
|-
|2021-11-01
|83
|-
|2021-10-01
|80
|-
|2021-09-01
|76
|-
|2021-08-01
|75
|-
|2021-07-01
|80
|-
|2021-06-01
|81
|-
|2021-05-01
|83
|-
|2021-04-01
|83
|-
|2021-03-01
|82
|-
|2021-02-01
|84
|-
|2021-01-01
|83
|}

== Building Permits ==
[[File:Fredgraph (15)permitsa24.png|alt=|center|thumb|1275x1275px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT]]
{| class="wikitable"
!
! colspan="4" |Authorized

in Permit-Issuing Places: Total Units<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT</ref>
|-
!Date
!Total (K) SAAR
!M/M Level Change
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-09-01
|1,425
| -45.00
| -3.06
| -5.94
|-
|2024-08-01
|1,470
|64.00
|4.55
| -6.84
|-
|2024-07-01
|1,406
| -48.00
| -3.30
| -6.33
|-
|2024-06-01
|1,454
|55.00
|3.93
| -2.61
|-
|2024-05-01
|1,399
| -41.00
| -2.85
| -8.68
|-
|2024-04-01
|1,440
| -45.00
| -3.03
| -2.04
|-
|2024-03-01
|1,485
| -78.00
| -4.99
| -0.54
|-
|2024-02-01
|1,563
|55.00
|3.65
| -3.52
|-
|2024-01-01
|1,508
| -22.00
| -1.44
|4.50
|-
|2023-12-01
|1,530
|22.00
|1.46
|9.29
|-
|2023-11-01
|1,508
| -26.00
| -1.69
|7.56
|-
|2023-10-01
|1,534
|19.00
|1.25
| -1.67
|-
|2023-09-01
|1,515
| -63.00
| -3.99
| -6.08
|-
|2023-08-01
|1,578
|77.00
|5.13
|2.33
|-
|2023-07-01
|1,501
|8.00
|0.54
| -12.68
|-
|2023-06-01
|1,493
| -39.00
| -2.55
| -14.44
|-
|2023-05-01
|1,532
|62.00
|4.22
| -10.51
|-
|2023-04-01
|1,470
| -23.00
| -1.54
| -19.89
|-
|2023-03-01
|1,493
| -127.00
| -7.84
| -20.54
|-
|2023-02-01
|1,620
|177.00
|12.27
| -12.90
|-
|2023-01-01
|1,443
|43.00
|3.07
| -24.65
|-
|2022-12-01
|1,400
| -2.00
| -0.14
| -26.82
|-
|2022-11-01
|1,402
| -158.00
| -10.13
| -20.61
|-
|2022-10-01
|1,560
| -53.00
| -3.29
| -9.25
|-
|2022-09-01
|1,613
|71.00
|4.60
| -0.74
|-
|2022-08-01
|1,542
| -177.00
| -10.30
| -12.88
|-
|2022-07-01
|1,719
| -26.00
| -1.49
|4.06
|-
|2022-06-01
|1,745
|33.00
|1.93
|5.31
|-
|2022-05-01
|1,712
| -123.00
| -6.70
|1.84
|-
|2022-04-01
|1,835
| -44.00
| -2.34
|5.58
|-
|2022-03-01
|1,879
|19.00
|1.02
|8.49
|-
|2022-02-01
|1,860
| -55.00
| -2.87
|8.45
|-
|2022-01-01
|1,915
|2.00
|0.10
|1.70
|-
|2021-12-01
|1,913
|147.00
|8.32
|9.69
|-
|2021-11-01
|1,766
|47.00
|2.73
|3.03
|-
|2021-10-01
|1,719
|94.00
|5.78
|6.57
|-
|2021-09-01
|1,625
| -145.00
| -8.19
|0.06
|-
|2021-08-01
|1,770
|118.00
|7.14
|15.76
|-
|2021-07-01
|1,652
| -5.00
| -0.30
|6.86
|-
|2021-06-01
|1,657
| -24.00
| -1.43
|23.84
|-
|2021-05-01
|1,681
| -57.00
| -3.28
|33.41
|-
|2021-04-01
|1,738
|6.00
|0.35
|63.04
|-
|2021-03-01
|1,732
|17.00
|0.99
|27.54
|-
|2021-02-01
|1,715
| -168.00
| -8.92
|18.93
|-
|2021-01-01
|1,883
|139.00
|7.97
|24.95
|}

== Housing Starts ==
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-19 134408.png|center|thumb|902x902px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST</ref>
! colspan="3" |New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units
! colspan="3" |New Privately-Owned Housing Units Under Construction: Total Units
|-
!Thousands of Units SAAR
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Thousands of Units SAAR
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-09-01
|1,354
| -0.51
| -0.66
|1,484
| -1.85
| -11.67
|-
|2024-08-01
|1,361
|7.84
|4.29
|1,512
| -2.26
| -10.90
|-
|2024-07-01
|1,262
| -5.04
| -14.32
|1,547
| -1.46
| -9.11
|-
|2024-06-01
|1,329
|1.06
| -6.08
|1,570
| -1.38
| -7.27
|-
|2024-05-01
|1,315
| -4.50
| -16.93
|1,592
| -1.18
| -5.91
|-
|2024-04-01
|1,377
|6.00
|0.66
|1,611
| -1.83
| -4.22
|-
|2024-03-01
|1,299
| -15.98
| -3.20
|1,641
| -0.97
| -2.38
|-
|2024-02-01
|1,546
|12.35
|10.11
|1,657
| -0.78
| -1.72
|-
|2024-01-01
|1,376
| -12.24
|1.10
|1,670
| -0.54
| -1.30
|-
|2023-12-01
|1,568
|3.84
|17.01
|1,679
| -0.24
| -0.77
|-
|2023-11-01
|1,510
|10.62
| 6.34
|1,683
| 0.18
| -0.71
|-
|2023-10-01
|1,365
|0.15
| -5.21
|1,680
| 0.00
| -1.81
|-
|2023-09-01
|1,363
| 4.44
| -7.28
|1,680
| -1.00
| -1.18
|-
|2023-08-01
|1,305
| -11.41
| -14.14
|1,697
| -0.29
| -0.12
|-
|2023-07-01
|1,473
| 4.10
| 5.82
|1,702
|0.53
|1.07
|-
|2023-06-01
|1,415
| -10.61
| -8.24
|1,693
|0.06
|0.24
|-
|2023-05-01
|1,583
| 15.72
| 2.79
|1,692
|0.59
|0.59
|-
|2023-04-01
|1,368
| 1.94
| -25.16
|1,682
| 0.06
|0.60
|-
|2023-03-01
|1,342
| -4.42
| -20.02
|1,681
| -0.30
|3.13
|-
|2023-02-01
|1,404
| 3.16
| -19.40
|1,686
| -0.35
|6.57
|-
|2023-01-01
|1,361
| 1.57
| -20.50
|1,692
|0.00
|9.02
|-
|2022-12-01
|1,340
| -5.63
| -23.73
|1,692
| -0.18
|10.95
|-
|2022-11-01
|1,420
| -1.39
| -16.67
|1,695
| -0.94
|13.53
|-
|2022-10-01
|1,440
| -2.04
| -9.26
|1,711
| 0.65
|16.87
|-
|2022-09-01
|1,470
| -3.29
| -5.95
|1,700
|0.06
|18.14
|-
|2022-08-01
|1,520
| 9.20
| -4.70
|1,699
| 0.89
|20.50
|-
|2022-07-01
|1,392
| -9.73
| -13.00
|1,684
| -0.30
|21.41
|-
|2022-06-01
|1,542
| 0.13
| -5.86
|1,689
|0.42
|23.02
|-
|2022-05-01
|1,540
| -15.75
| -4.17
|1,682
|0.60
|25.62
|-
|2022-04-01
|1,828
| 8.94
|22.52
|1,672
|2.58
|26.38
|-
|2022-03-01
|1,678
| -3.67
|0.60
|1,630
|3.03
|24.81
|-
|2022-02-01
|1,742
| 1.75
|23.81
|1,582
|1.93
|22.92
|-
|2022-01-01
|1,712
| -2.56
|4.45
|1,552
|1.77
|21.06
|-
|2021-12-01
|1,757
|3.11
|7.46
|1,525
|2.14
|20.94
|-
|2021-11-01
|1,704
|7.37
|9.72
|1,493
|1.98
|19.82
|-
|2021-10-01
|1,587
| 1.54
|2.85
|1,464
|1.74
|19.12
|-
|2021-09-01
|1,563
| -2.01
|6.84
|1,439
|2.06
|17.95
|-
|2021-08-01
|1,595
| -0.31
|13.85
|1,410
|1.66
|16.24
|-
|2021-07-01
|1,600
| -2.32
|5.06
|1,387
|1.02
|15.49
|-
|2021-06-01
|1,638
|1.93
|30.62
|1,373
|2.54
|16.06
|-
|2021-05-01
|1,607
| 7.71
|52.61
|1,339
|1.21
|13.47
|-
|2021-04-01
|1,492
| -10.55
|60.26
|1,323
|1.30
|10.71
|-
|2021-03-01
|1,668
| 18.55
| 33.23
|1,306
|1.48
|7.58
|-
|2021-02-01
|1,407
| -14.15
| -8.46
|1,287
|0.39
|6.10
|-
|2021-01-01
|1,639
|0.24
|3.87
|1,282
|1.67
|7.46
|}

== Sales ==
Main Article: [[Home Sales]]

== House Price Developments ==

=== Historical: [[Case-Shiller Home Price Index: 2023]] ===
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are based on observed changes in home prices. They are designed to measure increases or decreases in the market value of residential real estate in 20 defined MSAs and three price tiers – low, middle, and high (see Tables 1 and 1a on the following pages). In contrast, the indices are, specifically, not intended to measure recovery costs after disasters, construction or repair costs, or other such related items.

The indices are calculated monthly, using a three-month moving average algorithm. Home sales pairs are accumulated in rolling three-month periods, on which the repeat sales methodology is applied. The index point for each reporting month is based on sales pairs found for that month and the preceding two months. For example, the December 2005 index point is based on repeat sales data for October, November, and December of 2005. This averaging methodology is used to offset delays that can occur in the flow of sales price data from county deed recorders and to keep sample sizes large enough to create meaningful price change averages.

Methodology: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-corelogic-cs-home-price-indices.pdf
[[File:Screenshot 2024-08-12 093109.png|alt=|center|thumb|841x841px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA]]
'''Y/Y Change'''
[[File:Fredgraphhp1124.png|alt=|center|thumb|833x833px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA]]

{| class="wikitable"
!
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA</ref>
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index
|-
!Date
!Index
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Index
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Index
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-09-01
|324.80
| -0.10
|3.89
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-08-01
|325.13
| -0.13
|4.28
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-07-01
|325.54
|0.03
|4.87
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-06-01
|325.43
|0.48
|5.49
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|2024-05-01
|323.86
|0.93
|5.99
|333.21
|0.99
|6.81
|350.60
|0.98
|7.65
|-
|2024-04-01
|320.88
|1.24
|6.37
|329.95
|1.38
|7.25
|347.19
|1.42
|8.11
|-
|2024-03-01
|316.97
|1.33
|6.53
|325.47
|1.58
|7.50
|342.33
|1.66
|8.35
|-
|2024-02-01
|312.80
|0.62
|6.54
|320.40
|0.93
|7.44
|336.74
|1.01
|8.27
|-
|2024-01-01
|310.88
| -0.05
|6.16
|317.46
| -0.08
|6.72
|333.37
| 0.01
|7.56
|-
|2023-12-01
|311.05
| -0.38
|5.68
|317.72
| -0.27
|6.25
|333.35
| -0.16
|7.13
|-
|2023-11-01
|312.23
| -0.24
|5.18
|318.58
| -0.22
|5.51
|333.90
| -0.08
|6.43
|-
|2023-10-01
|312.99
|0.11
|4.80
|319.27
|0.14
|4.95
|334.16
|0.25
|5.86
|-
|2023-09-01
|312.63
|0.27
|4.06
|318.81
|0.25
|3.97
|333.34
|0.35
|4.87
|-
|2023-08-01
|311.78
|0.44
|2.70
|318.00
|0.37
|2.18
|332.17
|0.40
|3.04
|-
|2023-07-01
|310.42
|0.62
|1.11
|316.83
|0.61
|0.17
|330.83
|0.64
|0.99
|-
|2023-06-01
|308.50
|0.97
| 0.10
|314.91
|0.94
| -1.20
|328.72
|0.94
| -0.50
|-
|2023-05-01
|305.55
|1.28
| -0.27
|311.97
|1.41
| -1.72
|325.67
|1.41
| -1.06
|-
|2023-04-01
|301.68
|1.39
| 0.02
|307.64
|1.62
| -1.64
|321.16
|1.64
| -1.08
|-
|2023-03-01
|297.55
|1.34
|0.87
|302.75
|1.52
| -1.00
|315.97
|1.59
| -0.56
|-
|2023-02-01
|293.61
|0.26
|2.24
|298.21
|0.25
|0.54
|311.02
|0.35
|0.69
|-
|2023-01-01
|292.84
| -0.51
|3.86
|297.46
| -0.52
|2.75
|309.93
| -0.39
|2.77
|-
|2022-12-01
|294.34
| -0.85
|5.66
|299.02
| -0.96
|4.76
|311.16
| -0.82
|4.61
|-
|2022-11-01
|296.86
| -0.60
|7.55
|301.93
| -0.75
|6.93
|313.73
| -0.62
|6.54
|-
|2022-10-01
|298.66
| -0.59
|9.14
|304.20
| -0.79
|8.77
|315.67
| -0.69
|8.18
|-
|2022-09-01
|300.43
| -1.04
|10.68
|306.62
| -1.47
|10.54
|317.87
| -1.40
|9.83
|-
|2022-08-01
|303.59
| -1.12
|12.95
|311.20
| -1.61
|13.16
|322.37
| -1.59
|12.25
|-
|2022-07-01
|307.02
| -0.38
|15.64
|316.30
| -0.76
|16.06
|327.59
| -0.84
|14.94
|-
|2022-06-01
|308.18
|0.59
|18.01
|318.72
|0.41
|18.68
|330.37
|0.37
|17.43
|-
|2022-05-01
|306.39
|1.58
|19.95
|317.43
|1.49
|20.54
|329.14
|1.38
|19.10
|-
|2022-04-01
|301.62
|2.25
|20.74
|312.76
|2.27
|21.30
|324.67
|2.18
|19.76
|-
|2022-03-01
|294.98
|2.72
|20.79
|305.80
|3.10
|21.23
|317.75
|2.87
|19.60
|-
|2022-02-01
|287.17
|1.85
|20.05
|296.61
|2.46
|20.31
|308.87
|2.42
|18.74
|-
|2022-01-01
|281.95
|1.21
|19.25
|289.49
|1.42
|18.99
|301.58
|1.39
|17.39
|-
|2021-12-01
|278.58
|0.93
|18.87
|285.43
|1.08
|18.47
|297.46
|1.02
|16.92
|-
|2021-11-01
|276.01
|0.87
|18.81
|282.38
|0.96
|18.26
|294.46
|0.91
|16.82
|-
|2021-10-01
|273.64
|0.81
|19.07
|279.68
|0.83
|18.46
|291.81
|0.82
|17.17
|-
|2021-09-01
|271.43
|0.99
|19.68
|277.38
|0.86
|19.11
|289.43
|0.78
|17.90
|-
|2021-08-01
|268.78
|1.23
|19.96
|275.01
|0.91
|19.66
|287.19
|0.77
|18.61
|-
|2021-07-01
|265.50
|1.66
|19.83
|272.53
|1.48
|20.02
|285.00
|1.31
|19.21
|-
|2021-06-01
|261.16
|2.24
|18.82
|268.56
|1.98
|19.22
|281.33
|1.80
|18.66
|-
|2021-05-01
|255.44
|2.25
|16.92
|263.35
|2.13
|17.27
|276.37
|1.94
|16.78
|-
|2021-04-01
|249.81
|2.30
|15.00
|257.84
|2.22
|15.20
|271.10
|2.05
|14.79
|-
|2021-03-01
|244.21
|2.09
|13.49
|252.24
|2.31
|13.54
|265.67
|2.13
|13.18
|-
|2021-02-01
|239.21
|1.17
|12.19
|246.54
|1.34
|12.14
|260.12
|1.25
|11.91
|-
|2021-01-01
|236.43
|0.88
|11.32
|243.29
|0.97
|11.22
|256.91
|0.98
|11.03
|}

== Affordability ==
Affordability worst since the 2008 housing crisis.
[[File:Affordability tool.png|center|thumb|1030x1030px|https://www.atlantafed.org/center-for-housing-and-policy/data-and-tools/home-ownership-affordability-monitor]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-01-23 144903.png|alt=|center|thumb|1007x1007px|https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/]]

== Housing Inventory ==

=== Total Listings ===
[[File:Screenshot 2024-08-26 132607.png|alt=|center|thumb|655x655px|In Thousands <ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/total-housing-inventory#:~:text=Total%20Housing%20Inventory%20in%20the%20United%20States%20averaged%202279.84%20Thousands,United%20States%20Total%20Housing%20Inventory.</ref>]]

=== Active Listings ===
{| class="wikitable"
!Date
!Active Listings<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS</ref>
!M/M %
!Y/Y %
|-
|2024-09-01
|940,980
|3.48
|33.96
|-
|2024-08-01
|909,344
|2.86
|35.77
|-
|2024-07-01
|884,066
|5.25
|36.61
|-
|2024-06-01
|839,992
|6.64
|36.73
|-
|2024-05-01
|787,722
|7.27
|35.24
|-
|2024-04-01
|734,318
|5.68
|30.44
|-
|2024-03-01
|694,820
|4.53
|23.54
|-
|2024-02-01
|664,716
| -0.13
|14.75
|-
|2024-01-01
|665,569
| -6.81
|7.90
|-
|2023-12-01
|714,176
| -5.47
|4.88
|-
|2023-11-01
|755,489
|2.36
|0.71
|-
|2023-10-01
|738,082
|5.08
| -1.95
|-
|2023-09-01
|702,430
|4.88
| -3.97
|-
|2023-08-01
|669,750
|3.49
| -7.85
|-
|2023-07-01
|647,135
|5.34
| -6.44
|-
|2023-06-01
|614,326
|5.47
|7.09
|-
|2023-05-01
|582,441
|3.46
|21.48
|-
|2023-04-01
|562,966
|0.09
|48.16
|-
|2023-03-01
|562,444
| -2.90
|58.88
|-
|2023-02-01
|579,264
| -6.10
|67.17
|-
|2023-01-01
|616,865
| -9.41
|63.64
|-
|2022-12-01
|680,925
| -9.23
|52.91
|-
|2022-11-01
|750,200
| -0.34
|46.45
|-
|2022-10-01
|752,741
|2.90
|33.06
|-
|2022-09-01
|731,496
|0.65
|26.54
|-
|2022-08-01
|726,779
|5.08
|26.48
|-
|2022-07-01
|691,652
|20.57
|26.52
|-
|2022-06-01
|573,650
|19.64
|16.49
|-
|2022-05-01
|479,462
|26.18
|7.10
|-
|2022-04-01
|379,978
|7.33
| -12.78
|-
|2022-03-01
|354,016
|2.17
| -19.65
|-
|2022-02-01
|346,511
| -8.08
| -25.47
|-
|2022-01-01
|376,970
| -15.35
| -29.11
|-
|2021-12-01
|445,303
| -13.07
| -27.27
|-
|2021-11-01
|512,241
| -9.45
| -25.09
|-
|2021-10-01
|565,707
| -2.14
| -22.93
|-
|2021-09-01
|578,070
|0.60
| -22.86
|-
|2021-08-01
|574,638
|5.11
| -26.29
|-
|2021-07-01
|546,686
|11.02
| -33.56
|-
|2021-06-01
|492,425
|10.00
| -43.50
|-
|2021-05-01
|447,662
|2.75
| -51.78
|-
|2021-04-01
|435,663
| -1.12
| -53.74
|-
|2021-03-01
|440,589
| -5.23
| -52.99
|-
|2021-02-01
|464,919
| -12.57
| -49.92
|-
|2021-01-01
|531,775
| -13.15
| -44.12
|-
|2020-12-01
|612,300
| -10.46
| -40.78
|-
|2020-11-01
|683,822
| -6.84
| -40.19
|-
|2020-10-01
|734,040
| -2.05
| -39.25
|-
|2020-09-01
|749,395
| -3.87
| -38.82
|-
|2020-08-01
|779,558
| -5.26
| -36.89
|-
|2020-07-01
|822,834
| -5.59
| -33.62
|-
|2020-06-01
|871,557
| -6.12
| -28.55
|-
|2020-05-01
|928,370
| -1.42
| -21.39
|-
|2020-04-01
|941,733
|0.47
| -17.19
|-
|2020-03-01
|937,319
|0.97
| -16.01
|-
|2020-02-01
|928,343
| -2.45
| -15.81
|-
|2020-01-01
|951,675
| -7.95
| -14.31
|-
|2019-12-01
|1,033,887
| -9.57
| -12.82
|}

== Morgage Purchase Index ==
The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.
[[File:Screenshot 2024-08-26 133353.png|alt=|center|thumb|660x660px|https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/mba-purchase-index]]

== Rent Developments ==

=== Apartment List ===
Historical: [[Apartment List National Rent: 2023]]

Seasonality: https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/best-time-of-year-to-rent
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date<ref name=":0" />
! colspan="3" |Overall
! colspan="3" |1 Bedroom
! colspan="3" |2 Bedroom
|-
!Rents
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Rents
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Rents
!M/M
!Y/Y
|-
|10/1/2024
|1,394
| -0.71
| -0.71
|1225
| -0.73
| -0.73
|1380
| -0.72
| -0.72
|-
|9/1/2024
|1,404
| -0.57
| -0.78
|1234
| -0.48
| -0.72
|1390
| -0.50
| -0.71
|-
|8/1/2024
|1,412
| -0.07
| -0.77
|1240
| -0.16
| -0.80
|1397
| -0.14
| -0.78
|-
|7/1/2024
|1,413
|0.21
| -0.84
|1242
|0.24
| -0.80
|1399
|0.21
| -0.78
|-
|6/1/2024
|1,410
|0.43
| -0.77
|1239
|0.41
| -0.80
|1396
|0.43
| -0.78
|-
|5/1/2024
|1,404
|0.50
| -0.78
|1234
|0.57
| -0.72
|1390
|0.58
| -0.79
|-
|4/1/2024
|1,397
|0.58
| -0.71
|1227
|0.57
| -0.73
|1382
|0.51
| -0.79
|-
|3/1/2024
|1,389
|0.65
| -0.79
|1220
|0.58
| -0.81
|1375
|0.66
| -0.79
|-
|2/1/2024
|1,380
|0.22
| -0.86
|1213
|0.25
| -0.82
|1366
|0.22
| -0.87
|-
|1/1/2024
|1,377
| -0.22
| -0.86
|1210
| -0.25
| -0.82
|1363
| -0.22
| -0.87
|-
|12/1/2023
|1,380
| -0.79
| -0.93
|1213
| -0.74
| -0.90
|1366
| -0.80
| -0.94
|-
|11/1/2023
|1,391
| -0.93
| -1.07
|1222
| -0.97
| -1.05
|1377
| -0.94
| -1.08
|-
|10/1/2023
|1,404
| -0.78
| -1.27
|1234
| -0.72
| -1.28
|1390
| -0.71
| -1.28
|-
|9/1/2023
|1,415
| -0.56
| -1.39
|1243
| -0.56
| -1.43
|1400
| -0.57
| -1.48
|-
|8/1/2023
|1,423
| -0.14
| -1.32
|1250
| -0.16
| -1.34
|1408
| -0.14
| -1.33
|-
|7/1/2023
|1,425
|0.28
| -0.84
|1252
|0.24
| -0.87
|1410
|0.21
| -0.91
|-
|6/1/2023
|1,421
|0.42
| -0.14
|1249
|0.48
| -0.08
|1407
|0.43
| -0.07
|-
|5/1/2023
|1,415
|0.57
|0.86
|1243
|0.57
|0.89
|1401
|0.57
|0.94
|-
|4/1/2023
|1,407
|0.50
|1.66
|1236
|0.49
|1.64
|1393
|0.51
|1.68
|-
|3/1/2023
|1,400
|0.57
|2.34
|1230
|0.57
|2.33
|1386
|0.58
|2.36
|-
|2/1/2023
|1,392
|0.22
|2.65
|1223
|0.25
|2.60
|1378
|0.22
|2.68
|-
|1/1/2023
|1,389
| -0.29
|2.97
|1220
| -0.33
|2.95
|1375
| -0.29
|3.00
|-
|12/1/2022
|1,393
| -0.92
|3.49
|1224
| -0.89
|3.55
|1379
| -0.93
|3.53
|-
|11/1/2022
|1,406
| -1.13
|4.07
|1235
| -1.20
|4.04
|1392
| -1.14
|4.04
|-
|10/1/2022
|1,422
| -0.91
|5.41
|1250
| -0.87
|5.49
|1408
| -0.91
|5.47
|-
|9/1/2022
|1,435
| -0.49
|7.25
|1261
| -0.47
|7.23
|1421
| -0.42
|7.33
|-
|8/1/2022
|1,442
|0.35
|10.08
|1267
|0.32
|10.08
|1427
|0.28
|10.02
|-
|7/1/2022
|1,437
|0.98
|12.35
|1263
|1.04
|12.47
|1423
|1.07
|12.49
|-
|6/1/2022
|1,423
|1.43
|14.39
|1250
|1.46
|14.36
|1408
|1.44
|14.29
|-
|5/1/2022
|1,403
|1.37
|15.76
|1232
|1.32
|15.68
|1388
|1.31
|15.67
|-
|4/1/2022
|1,384
|1.17
|16.60
|1216
|1.16
|16.59
|1370
|1.18
|16.60
|-
|3/1/2022
|1,368
|0.88
|17.02
|1202
|0.84
|17.04
|1354
|0.89
|17.03
|-
|2/1/2022
|1,356
|0.52
|17.30
|1192
|0.59
|17.44
|1342
|0.52
|17.31
|-
|1/1/2022
|1,349
|0.22
|17.51
|1185
|0.25
|17.56
|1335
|0.23
|17.52
|-
|12/1/2021
|1,346
| -0.37
|17.76
|1182
| -0.42
|17.73
|1332
| -0.45
|17.77
|-
|11/1/2021
|1,351
|0.15
|17.89
|1187
|0.17
|17.87
|1338
|0.22
|17.89
|-
|10/1/2021
|1,349
|0.82
|17.20
|1185
|0.77
|17.09
|1335
|0.83
|17.11
|-
|9/1/2021
|1,338
|2.14
|15.84
|1176
|2.17
|15.86
|1324
|2.08
|15.73
|-
|8/1/2021
|1,310
|2.42
|13.32
|1151
|2.49
|13.29
|1297
|2.53
|13.37
|-
|7/1/2021
|1,279
|2.81
|10.93
|1123
|2.74
|10.86
|1265
|2.68
|10.87
|-
|6/1/2021
|1,244
|2.64
|8.36
|1093
|2.63
|8.33
|1232
|2.67
|8.45
|-
|5/1/2021
|1,212
|2.11
|5.21
|1065
|2.11
|5.24
|1200
|2.13
|5.26
|-
|4/1/2021
|1,187
|1.54
|2.50
|1043
|1.56
|2.56
|1175
|1.56
|2.53
|-
|3/1/2021
|1,169
|1.12
|0.52
|1027
|1.18
|0.49
|1157
|1.14
|0.52
|-
|2/1/2021
|1,156
|0.70
| -0.26
|1015
|0.69
| -0.29
|1144
|0.70
| -0.26
|-
|1/1/2021
|1,148
|0.44
| -0.52
|1008
|0.40
| -0.59
|1136
|0.44
| -0.61
|-
|12/1/2020
|1,143
| -0.26
| -0.87
|1004
| -0.30
| -0.89
|1131
| -0.35
| -0.96
|-
|11/1/2020
|1,146
| -0.43
| -0.87
|1007
| -0.49
| -0.89
|1135
| -0.44
| -0.79
|-
|10/1/2020
|1,151
| -0.35
| -0.95
|1012
| -0.30
| -0.88
|1140
| -0.35
| -0.87
|-
|9/1/2020
|1,155
| -0.09
| -1.11
|1015
| -0.10
| -1.07
|1144
|0.00
| -1.04
|-
|8/1/2020
|1,156
|0.26
| -1.37
|1016
|0.30
| -1.36
|1144
|0.26
| -1.38
|-
|7/1/2020
|1,153
|0.44
| -1.54
|1013
|0.40
| -1.55
|1141
|0.44
| -1.55
|-
|6/1/2020
|1,148
| -0.35
| -1.46
|1009
| -0.30
| -1.37
|1136
| -0.35
| -1.47
|-
|5/1/2020
|1,152
| -0.52
| -0.26
|1012
| -0.49
| -0.30
|1140
| -0.52
| -0.26
|-
|4/1/2020
|1,158
| -0.43
|1.14
|1017
| -0.49
|1.09
|1146
| -0.43
|1.15
|-
|3/1/2020
|1,163
|0.35
|2.38
|1022
|0.39
|2.40
|1151
|0.35
|2.40
|-
|2/1/2020
|1,159
|0.43
|2.66
|1018
|0.39
|2.62
|1147
|0.35
|2.69
|-
|1/1/2020
|1,154
|0.09
|2.49
|1014
|0.10
|2.53
|1143
|0.09
|2.60
|-
|12/1/2019
|1,153
| -0.26
|2.40
|1013
| -0.30
|2.43
|1142
| -0.17
|2.51
|-
|11/1/2019
|1,156
| -0.52
|2.48
|1016
| -0.49
|2.52
|1144
| -0.52
|2.51
|-
|10/1/2019
|1,162
| -0.51
|2.56
|1021
| -0.49
|2.51
|1150
| -0.52
|2.50
|-
|9/1/2019
|1,168
| -0.34
|2.64
|1026
| -0.39
|2.70
|1156
| -0.34
|2.66
|-
|8/1/2019
|1,172
|0.09
|2.81
|1030
|0.10
|2.90
|1160
|0.09
|2.84
|-
|7/1/2019
|1,171
|0.52
|2.99
|1029
|0.59
|3.00
|1159
|0.52
|3.02
|-
|6/1/2019
|1,165
|0.87
|3.10
|1023
|0.79
|3.02
|1153
|0.87
|3.13
|-
|5/1/2019
|1,155
|0.87
|3.13
|1015
|0.89
|3.15
|1143
|0.88
|3.16
|-
|4/1/2019
|1,145
|0.79
|3.34
|1006
|0.80
|3.29
|1133
|0.80
|3.28
|-
|3/1/2019
|1,136
|0.62
|3.46
|998
|0.60
|3.42
|1124
|0.63
|3.40
|-
|2/1/2019
|1,129
|0.27
|3.48
|992
|0.30
|3.55
|1117
|0.27
|3.52
|-
|1/1/2019
|1,126
|0.00
|3.49
|989
|0.00
|3.45
|1114
| 0.00
|3.44
|-
|12/1/2018
|1,126
| -0.18
|3.30
|989
| -0.20
|3.24
|1114
| -0.18
|3.24
|-
|11/1/2018
|1,128
| -0.44
|3.11
|991
| -0.50
|3.01
|1116
| -0.53
|3.05
|-
|10/1/2018
|1,133
| -0.44
|3.09
|996
| -0.30
|3.11
|1122
| -0.36
|3.13
|-
|9/1/2018
|1,138
| -0.18
|3.08
|999
| -0.20
|2.99
|1126
| -0.18
|3.11
|-
|8/1/2018
|1,140
|0.26
|2.98
|1001
|0.20
|2.98
|1128
|0.27
|3.01
|-
|7/1/2018
|1,137
|0.62
|2.34
|999
|0.60
|2.36
|1125
|0.63
|2.27
|-
|6/1/2018
|1,130
|0.89
|2.17
|993
|0.91
|2.16
|1118
|0.90
|2.10
|-
|5/1/2018
|1,120
|1.08
|2.10
|984
|1.03
|2.07
|1108
|1.00
|2.03
|-
|4/1/2018
|1,108
|0.91
|2.40
|974
|0.93
|2.42
|1097
|0.92
|2.43
|-
|3/1/2018
|1,098
|0.64
|2.14
|965
|0.73
|2.22
|1087
|0.74
|2.16
|-
|2/1/2018
|1,091
|0.28
|1.87
|958
|0.21
|1.81
|1079
|0.19
|1.79
|-
|1/1/2018
|1,088
| -0.18
|1.68
|956
| -0.21
|1.70
|1077
| -0.19
|1.70
|-
|12/1/2017
|1,090
| -0.37
|
|958
| -0.42
|
|1079
| -0.37
|
|-
|11/1/2017
|1,094
| -0.45
|
|962
| -0.41
|
|1083
| -0.46
|
|-
|10/1/2017
|1,099
| -0.45
|
|966
| -0.41
|
|1088
| -0.37
|
|-
|9/1/2017
|1,104
| -0.27
|
|970
| -0.21
|
|1092
| -0.27
|
|-
|8/1/2017
|1,107
| -0.36
|
|972
| -0.41
|
|1095
| -0.45
|
|-
|7/1/2017
|1,111
|0.45
|
|976
|0.41
|
|1100
|0.46
|
|-
|6/1/2017
|1,106
|0.82
|
|972
|0.83
|
|1095
|0.83
|
|-
|5/1/2017
|1,097
|1.39
|
|964
|1.37
|
|1086
|1.40
|
|-
|4/1/2017
|1,082
|0.65
|
|951
|0.74
|
|1071
|0.66
|
|-
|3/1/2017
|1,075
|0.37
|
|944
|0.32
|
|1064
|0.38
|
|-
|2/1/2017
|1,071
|0.09
|
|941
|0.11
|
|1060
|0.09
|
|-
|1/1/2017
|1,070
|
|
|940
|
|
|1059
|
|
|}
[[File:Screenshot 2024-08-12 093640.png|alt=|center|thumb|714x714px|https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data]]
<ref name=":0" />
[[File:Screenshot 2024-08-12 093621.png|alt=|center|thumb|686x686px|https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data]]

==== October 2024 ====
The national median rent dipped by 0.7% in October, as we get further into the slow season for the rental market. The median monthly rent nationally fell by $10, putting it at $1,394, and we’re likely to see that number continue to dip modestly through the remainder of the year.

* Rents are down 0.7% month-over-month, also down 0.7% year-over-year
* In October, our vacancy rate ticked up to 6.8 percent, matching the level that it jumped to in the early months of the pandemic.
* Rents are down month-over-month in 89 of 100 largest cities, down year-over-year in 51

==== September 2024 ====
The national median rent dipped by 0.5% in September, as we turn the corner into the slow season for the rental market. The median rent nationally now stands at $1,405, and we’re likely to see that number continue to dip modestly through the remainder of the year.<ref name=":0" />

* Rents are down 0.5% month-over-month, down 0.7% year-over-year
* As of September, our vacancy index sits at 6.7 percent, the highest level since August 2020.
* Rents are down month-over-month in 80 of 100 largest cities, down year-over-year in 51 
==== August 2024 ====
Rents decrease of -0.1% in August, and today the nationwide median rent stands at $1,412. This signals the end of the rental market’s annual busy season, as well as the second consecutive summer of modest rent growth, as the market remains sluggish thanks to a windfall of new supply. If historical trends hold, rents will continue to fall on a monthly basis for the remainder of the year.<ref name=":0" />

* Rents are down 0.1% month-over-month, down 0.7% year-over-year
* On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index remains slightly elevated, currently standing at 6.7 percent.
* 59 of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw rents fall in August, in line with the broader national trend. And on a year-over-year basis, rent growth is negative for 52 of these cities.

==== July 2024 ====
Rent prices ticked up for the sixth straight month, but rent growth over the course of 2024 as a whole remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market. And while month-over-month rent growth remains positive, it is decelerating. Prices increased just 0.2% in July and today the nationwide median rent stands at $1,414. It is very possible that rent growth will turn flat or negative in August, and stay there for the remainder of the year.<ref name=":0" />

* Rents are up 0.2% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year
* Through July, our vacancy index sits at 6.7 percent, the highest reading since August 2020.
* ationwide rent growth was positive in July 2024, so too was it positive in the majority of large cities across the country; 72 of the nation’s largest 100 cities saw prices rise month-over-month.

==== June 2024 ====
The national median rent increased by 0.4% in June and now stands at $1,411, but the pace of growth slowed slightly this month. This is typically the time of year when rent growth is accelerating amid the busy moving season, so sluggish growth this month indicates that the market is headed for another slow summer.<ref name=":0" />

* Rents are up 0.4% month-over-month, down 0.7% year-over-year
* As of June, our vacancy index sits at 6.7 percent, the highest reading since August 2020.
* As nationwide rent growth was positive in June, so too was local rent growth in the majority of large cities across the county. 80 of the nation’s largest 100 cities saw prices rise month-over-month.

==== May 2024 ====
Rent prices ticked up for the fourth straight month, but rent growth over the course of 2024 as a whole remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market. The national median rent increased by 0.5% in May and now stands at $1,404

* Rents are up 0.5% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year
* Vacancy index sits at 6.7 percent, the highest reading since August 2020. And there’s good reason to expect that it could rise even further during the remainder of the year. Despite a recent slowdown in new permits being issued and new construction projects breaking ground, the number of multifamily units under construction remains near record levels.
* Rents up month-over-month in 80 of 100 largest cities, up year-over-year in 43

==== April 2024 ====
Rent prices ticked up for the third straight month, but rent growth remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market. The national median rent increased by 0.5% in April and now stands at $1,396. <ref name=":0" />

* Rents are up 0.5% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year.
* The national vacancy index continues trending up and stands today at 6.7 percent. After a historic tightening in 2021, multifamily occupancy has been slowly but consistently easing for over two years.
* 83 of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw rents go up in April. But on a year-over-year basis, rent growth is positive for only 43 of these cities

==== March 2024 ====
The rental market continued to pull out of its slow season in March; prices ticked up 0.6 percent this month, the second consecutive monthly increase following six straight months of rent declines. The nationwide median rent now stands at $1,388.<ref name=":0" />

* Rents are up 0.6% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year. Year-to-date, the national median rent is up by a total of 0.9% so far in 2024, which is slightly faster than the 2017 to 2019 average (+0.7%).
* On the supply side of the market, our national vacancy index continues trending up and stands today at 6.7 percent.
* Zooming in a bit, 81 of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw rents go up in March. But on a year-over-year basis, rent growth is positive for only 42 of these cities.

==== February 2024 ====
The rental market turned a corner in February; after six consecutive months of rent declines, prices ticked up 0.2 percent this month and today the nationwide median rent stands at $1,377. The rental market turned a corner in February; after six consecutive months of rent declines, prices ticked up 0.2 percent this month and today the nationwide median rent stands at $1,377.<ref name=":0" />

* Rents are up 0.2% month-over-month, down 1.0% year-over-year
* Zooming in a bit, 57 of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw rents go up in February. But on a year-over-year basis, rent growth is positive for only 43 of these cities. Many of the steepest year-over-year declines remain concentrated in Sun Belt cities that are rapidly expanding their multifamily inventory, such as Austin (-6.7 percent year-over-year), Atlanta (-5.3 percent), and Nashville (-5.1 percent).
* On the supply side of the market, our national vacancy index continues trending up and stands today at 6.6 percent.

==== January 2024 ====
The rental market kicked off the new year with a sixth straight month of negative rent growth, as the nationwide median rent fell by 0.3 percent to $1,373. The recent declines are in line with the rental market’s typical seasonal pattern, as fewer renters are looking to move in the fall and winter, although this year’s dip has been a bit sharper and more prolonged than what we normally see.<ref name=":0">https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data?utm_source=twitter.com</ref>

* Rents are down 0.3% month-over-month, down 1% year-over-year
* Even though the timing of the recent slowdown has been in line with what we typically expect, its magnitude has been a bit more pronounced. The nation’s median rent has fallen by a total of 3.5 percent since last summer’s peak, the second sharpest seasonal dip that we’ve seen in the history of our index (going back to 2017).
* On the supply side of the market, our national vacancy index stands at 6.5 percent, slightly higher than the pre-pandemic average. After a historic tightening in 2021, multifamily occupancy rates have been slowly but consistently easing for over two years. And with this year expected to bring the most new apartment completions in decades, we expect that there will continue to be an abundance of vacant units on the market in the year ahead.
* Regionally, rents fell in January in 73 of the nation’s 100 largest cities, and prices are down year-over-year in 53 of these 100 cities.

=== Zillow ===
[[File:Screenshot 2024-05-14 110051.png|center|thumb|840x840px|https://www.zillow.com/research/april-2024-rent-report-34018/]]

==== June 2024 ====

==== May 2024 ====

* Asking rents increased by 0.6% month over month in April. The pre-pandemic average for this time of year is 0.7% growth.<ref>https://www.zillow.com/research/april-2024-market-report-34050/</ref>
* Rents are now up 3.6% from last year.
* Rents are up from year-ago levels in 48 of the 50 largest metro areas. Annual rent increases are highest in Providence (7.7%), Louisville (7%), Buffalo (6.5%), Cleveland (6.5%) and Hartford (6.2%).

==== April 2024 ====
The typical U.S. rent is now only a whisker away from $2,000, at $1,997, according to the Zillow Observed Rent Index. <ref>https://www.zillow.com/research/april-2024-rent-report-34018/</ref>

* U.S. rents continued to tick up in April. Rents grew 0.6% month over month, slightly slower than the pre-pandemic average for this time of year of 0.7%
* U.S. rents are now up 3.6% from last year. Since the beginning of the pandemic, rents have increased by 31.4%.
* The share of median household income spent on typical rent has moderated slightly to 29.2%, down from a recent peak of 30.3% in June 2022 but still a ways above 27.6% needed before the pandemic.
* Multifamily rents grew 0.631% in April, while single-family rents grew 0.625%. Still, multifamily rents have grown only 2.8% over the past year, well below the 4.8% year-over-year growth seen in single-family rentals in April and softer than multifamily pre-pandemic norms
* The income needed to comfortably afford rent increased by 3.7% year over year in April to $79,889.

== Forecasts ==

=== 2024 ===
'''Zillow:'''

April 2024: Zillow’s home value forecast calls for 1.9% growth over 2024 – slower than long-term norms but a welcome slowdown for first-time buyers compared to the rapid appreciation seen over the pandemic. This is an upward revision from last month’s outlook, which projected growth of 0.9%. With interest rates still elevated, the modest upward revision is mostly the result of a slowdown in the growth of new for-sale listings. After rising at an annual pace of 21% in February, the year-over-year increase in new listings eased in March to just 4%, indicating that the market remains quite tight for would-be homebuyers. It remains to be seen how new listings will fare in April – the Easter holiday falling in March and the fact that February was a leap year are likely clouding the broader picture.

Zillow’s expectation for home sales was revised slightly downward this month as elevated mortgage rates continue to limit housing demand and sales volume. Zillow’s forecast now calls for 4.06 million existing home sales in 2024, slightly below both 2023’s level of 4.09 million and the previous forecast of 4.1 million existing home sales this year. Even after a better-than-expected sales count reading in February, leading indicators of home sales in the coming months suggest continued softness.<ref>https://www.zillow.com/research/home-value-sales-forecast-33822/</ref>

== References ==

File:Fredgraphhp1124.png

2024-12-10T15:32:21Z

MagaNH6:

Supply Chains

2024-12-10T15:21:50Z

MagaNH6:

Goal in constructing the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) was to develop a parsimonious measure of global supply chain pressures that could be used to gauge the importance of supply constraints with respect to economic outcomes. Our research indicates, for example, that changes in the GSCPI are associated with goods and producer price inflation in the United States and the euro area, both during the pandemic period and stretching back to 1997 (the starting point of our data set).<ref name=":0">https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/overview</ref>

The GSCPI integrates a number of commonly used metrics with the aim of providing a comprehensive summary of potential supply chain disruptions. Global transportation costs are measured by employing data from the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Harpex index, as well as airfreight cost indices from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The GSCPI also uses several supply chain-related components from Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys, focusing on manufacturing firms across seven interconnected economies: China, the euro area, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

'''Methodology''': https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/faq

== Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) Developments ==
Historical: [[Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI): 2023]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-11-12 111553.png|alt=|center|thumb|975x975px|https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive]]
The sharp rise around 2020-2022 likely reflects extreme economic conditions during and following the pandemic. This period coincides with significant economic disruptions, related to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic effects, such as large fiscal stimulus programs and supply chain shocks.

By mid-2024, the graph shows a slight rebound but still stays close to the zero mark, indicating that whatever was causing the volatility may have moderated, and values are returning closer to the average range.
{| class="wikitable"
!Month<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>
!Index
|-
|30-Nov-2024
| -0.32
|-
|31-Oct-2024
| -0.33
|-
|30-Sep-2024
|0.11
|-
|31-Aug-2024
|0.22
|-
|31-Jul-2024
| -0.05
|-
|30-Jun-2024
| -0.34
|-
|31-May-2024
| -0.57
|-
|30-Apr-2024
| -0.94
|-
|31-Mar-2024
| -0.34
|-
|29-Feb-2024
| -0.18
|-
|31-Jan-2024
| -0.35
|-
|31-Dec-2023
| -0.15
|-
|30-Nov-2023
|0.17
|-
|31-Oct-2023
| -0.35
|-
|30-Sep-2023
| -0.64
|-
|31-Aug-2023
| -1.06
|-
|31-Jul-2023
| -0.92
|-
|30-Jun-2023
| -1.09
|-
|31-May-2023
| -1.56
|-
|30-Apr-2023
| -1.28
|-
|31-Mar-2023
| -1.14
|-
|28-Feb-2023
| -0.21
|-
|31-Jan-2023
|1.08
|-
|31-Dec-2022
|1.34
|-
|30-Nov-2022
|1.26
|-
|31-Oct-2022
|1.13
|-
|30-Sep-2022
|1.02
|-
|31-Aug-2022
|1.52
|-
|31-Jul-2022
|1.82
|-
|30-Jun-2022
|2.42
|-
|31-May-2022
|2.75
|-
|30-Apr-2022
|3.55
|-
|31-Mar-2022
|2.85
|-
|28-Feb-2022
|2.79
|-
|31-Jan-2022
|3.69
|-
|31-Dec-2021
|4.40
|-
|30-Nov-2021
|4.31
|-
|31-Oct-2021
|3.91
|-
|30-Sep-2021
|3.36
|-
|31-Aug-2021
|3.29
|-
|31-Jul-2021
|2.94
|-
|30-Jun-2021
|2.77
|-
|31-May-2021
|3.03
|-
|30-Apr-2021
|2.76
|-
|31-Mar-2021
|2.26
|-
|28-Feb-2021
|1.94
|-
|31-Jan-2021
|1.32
|-
|31-Dec-2020
|1.68
|-
|30-Nov-2020
|0.75
|-
|31-Oct-2020
|0.11
|-
|30-Sep-2020
|0.62
|-
|31-Aug-2020
|1.48
|-
|31-Jul-2020
|2.96
|-
|30-Jun-2020
|2.25
|-
|31-May-2020
|2.51
|-
|30-Apr-2020
|3.32
|-
|31-Mar-2020
|2.62
|-
|29-Feb-2020
|1.28
|-
|31-Jan-2020
| 0.07
|-
|31-Dec-2019
|0.05
|-
|30-Nov-2019
|0.17
|}

=== April 2024 ===
The GSCPI fell to -0.85 in April, down from -0.30 in March (revised down from an initial reading of -0.27). GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.<ref name=":0" />

=== March 2024 ===
The GSCPI fell to -0.27 in March, down from -0.11 in February (revised down from an initial reading of 0.10). GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.<ref name=":0" />

=== February 2024 ===
The GSCPI rose to 0.10 in February, up from -0.23 in January (revised down from an initial reading of -0.11). GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.<ref name=":2" />

=== January 2024 ===
The GSCPI rose to -0.11 in January, up from -0.15 in December. GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.<ref name=":2">https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>

== References ==

Wages

2024-12-10T15:13:45Z

MagaNH6:

== Average Hourly Earnings ==
Historical: [[Average Hourly Earnings: 2023]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-10-08 134650.png|alt=|center|thumb|1062x1062px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003]]Wage growth peaked during the height of the pandemic and has since moderated, although it remains above pre-pandemic levels. The recent 4% figure suggests that wage pressures persist, potentially tied to still resilient labor markets.
{| class="wikitable"
!Release Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003</ref>
!Level
!M/M
!Y/Y
!M/M Forecast
!Y/Y Forecast
|-
|2024-11-01
|35.61
|0.37
|4.03
|0.3%
|3.9%
|-
|2024-10-01
|35.48
|0.42
|4.05
|0.3%
|4%
|-
|2024-09-01
|35.33
|0.31
|3.88
|0.3%
|3.8%
|-
|2024-08-01
|35.22
|0.43
|3.86
|0.3%
|3.8%
|-
|2024-07-01
|35.07
|0.23
|3.63
|0.3%
|3.7%
|-
|2024-06-01
|34.99
|0.32
|3.83
|0.3%
|3.9%
|-
|2024-05-01
|34.88
|0.37
|4.00
|0.3%
|3.9%
|-
|2024-04-01
|34.75
|0.17
|3.92
|0.3%
|4%
|-
|2024-03-01
|34.69
|0.38
|4.14
|0.3%
|4.1%
|-
|2024-02-01
|34.56
|0.14
|4.25
|0.2%
|4.4%
|-
|2024-01-01
|34.51
|0.50
|4.35
|0.3%
|4.1%
|-
|2023-12-01
|34.34
|0.32
|4.25
|0.3%
|3.9%
|-
|2023-11-01
|34.23
|0.38
|4.26
|0.3%
|4.0%
|-
|2023-10-01
|34.10
|0.26
|4.28
|0.3%
|4.3%
|-
|2023-09-01
|34.01
|0.29
|4.52
|0.3%
|4.3%
|-
|2023-08-01
|33.91
|0.21
|4.53
|0.3%
|4.3%
|-
|2023-07-01
|33.84
|0.42
|4.67
|0.3%
|4.2%
|-
|2023-06-01
|33.70
|0.48
|4.66
|0.3%
|4.2%
|-
|2023-05-01
|33.54
|0.30
|4.55
|0.30%
|4.4%
|-
|2023-04-01
|33.44
|0.39
|4.66
|0.30%
|4.20%
|-
|2023-03-01
|33.31
|0.48
|4.62
|0.30%
|4.30%
|-
|2023-02-01
|33.15
|0.24
|4.74
|0.30%
|4.70%
|-
|2023-01-01
|33.07
|0.39
|4.55
|0.30%
|4.30%
|-
|2022-12-01
|32.94
|0.34
|4.90
|0.40%
|5.00%
|-
|2022-11-01
|32.83
|0.40
|5.09
|0.30%
|4.60%
|-
|2022-10-01
|32.70
|0.49
|4.98
|0.30%
|4.70%
|-
|2022-09-01
|32.54
|0.31
|5.14
|0.30%
|5.10%
|-
|2022-08-01
|32.44
|0.34
|5.43
|0.40%
|5.30%
|-
|2022-07-01
|32.33
|0.40
|5.48
|0.30%
|4.90%
|-
|2022-06-01
|32.20
|0.37
|5.44
|0.30%
|5.00%
|-
|2022-05-01
|32.08
|0.41
|5.56
|0.40%
|5.20%
|-
|2022-04-01
|31.95
|0.35
|5.76
|0.40%
|5.50%
|-
|2022-03-01
|31.84
|0.60
|5.92
|0.40%
|5.50%
|-
|2022-02-01
|31.65
|0.06
|5.29
|0.50%
|5.80%
|-
|2022-01-01
|31.63
|0.73
|5.68
|0.50%
|5.20%
|-
|2021-12-01
|31.40
|0.51
|5.02
|0.40%
|4.20%
|}

=== May 2024 ===
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month and 4.1% y/y, above 0.3% and 3.9% estimate.

=== April 2024 ===
Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% for the month and 3.9% y/y, both lower-than estimates.

=== March 2024 ===
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month of March 2024 and 4.1% y/y, both in line with the estimates.

=== February 2024 ===

* Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month, lower-than the 0.2% estimate (+0.6% previously).
* Yearly, average hourly earnings rose 4.3%, lower-than 4.4% estimate (+4.5% previously).

=== January 2024 ===
Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.5 percent. <ref name=":0" />
* In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 19 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $34.55.
* In January, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 13 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $29.66.

=== December 2023 ===
Over the past 12 months, average hourly
earnings have increased by 4.1 percent. <ref name=":0">https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm</ref>

* In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 15 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $34.27.
* In December, average hourly earnings ofprivate-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 10 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $29.42.

== Employment compensation index ==
'''Methodology''': https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2001/09/art1full.pdf[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-28 104610.png|center|thumb|880x880px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECIWAG]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
! colspan="3" |Employment Cost Index: Total compensation: All Civilian<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECIALLCIV</ref>
! colspan="3" |Employment Cost Index: Wages and salaries for All Civilian <ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIS1020000000000I</ref>
! colspan="3" |Employment Cost Index: Total benefits for All Civilian<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIU1030000000000I</ref>
|-
!Index Dec 2005=100 SA
!Q/Q
!Y/Y
!Index Dec 2005=100 SA
!Q/Q
!Y/Y
!Index Dec 2005=100 SA
!Q/Q
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-01-01
|164.00
|1.17
|4.19
|163.90
|1.11
|4.33
|164.20
|1.42
|3.73
|-
|2023-10-01
|162.10
|0.93
|4.18
|162.10
|1.06
|4.38
|161.90
|0.50
|3.85
|-
|2023-07-01
|160.60
|1.01
|4.35
|160.40
|1.07
|4.50
|161.10
|0.88
|4.07
|-
|2023-04-01
|159.00
|1.02
|4.54
|158.70
|1.02
|4.61
|159.70
|0.88
|4.24
|-
|2023-01-01
|157.40
|1.16
|4.86
|157.10
|1.16
|5.01
|158.30
|1.54
|4.49
|-
|2022-10-01
|155.60
|1.10
|5.06
|155.30
|1.17
|5.07
|155.90
|0.71
|4.91
|-
|2022-07-01
|153.90
|1.18
|5.05
|153.50
|1.19
|5.07
|154.80
|1.04
|4.95
|-
|2022-04-01
|152.10
|1.33
|5.11
|151.70
|1.40
|5.27
|153.20
|1.12
|4.79
|-
|2022-01-01
|150.10
|1.35
|4.45
|149.60
|1.22
|4.69
|151.50
|1.95
|4.05
|-
|2021-10-01
|148.10
|1.09
|3.93
|147.80
|1.16
|4.53
|148.60
|0.75
|2.84
|-
|2021-07-01
|146.50
|1.24
|3.68
|146.10
|1.39
|4.21
|147.50
|0.89
|2.50
|-
|2021-04-01
|144.70
|0.70
|2.84
|144.10
|0.84
|3.22
|146.20
|0.41
|2.24
|-
|2021-01-01
|143.70
|0.84
|2.64
|142.90
|1.06
|2.73
|145.60
|0.76
|2.46
|-
|2020-10-01
|142.50
|0.85
|2.59
|141.40
|0.86
|2.61
|144.50
|0.42
|2.34
|-
|2020-07-01
|141.30
|0.43
|2.39
|140.20
|0.43
|2.49
|143.90
|0.63
|2.27
|-
|2020-04-01
|140.70
|0.50
|2.70
|139.60
|0.36
|2.87
|143.00
|0.63
|2.22
|-
|2020-01-01
|140.00
|0.79
|2.87
|139.10
|0.94
|3.19
|142.10
|0.64
|2.08
|-
|2019-10-01
|138.90
|0.65
|2.66
|137.80
|0.73
|2.91
|141.20
|0.36
|2.24
|}

=== Q1 2024 ===
The US Employment Cost Index rose by 1.2% in the first quarter of 2024, accelerating from a 0.9% increase in the previous three-month period and beating the market consensus of a 1% growth. Employment costs rose the most in one year, as wages and salaries advanced by 1.1% (vs 1.1% in Q4) and benefits increased by 1.1% (vs 0.7%)
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-30 083934.png|center|thumb|1336x1336px|https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm]]

=== Q4 2023 ===
[[File:1ad792859c9dff873565c77df7a224b95bdf4e95.png|center|thumb|1342x1342px|https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm]]

=== Q3 2023 ===
The Employment Cost Index (ECI), the broadest measure of labor costs, rose 1.1% last quarter after increasing 1.0% in the April-June period, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the ECI would rise 1.0%.<ref>https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/eci.pdf</ref>
[[File:Screenshot 2023-10-31 132116.png|center|thumb|1333x1333px]]

=== Q2 2023 ===
[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-28 105235.png|center|thumb|498x498px|https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/eci.pdf]]
Compensation costs for civilian workers in the United States increased by 1.0 percent during the second quarter of 2023, easing from a 1.2 percent rise in the previous three-month period and slightly missing market expectations of a 1.1 percent advance.

* Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 4.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023 and increased 5.1 percent in June 2022
* Wages and salaries increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023 and increased 5.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2022
* Benefit costs increased 4.2 percent over the year and increased 4.8 percent for the 12- month period ending in June 2022.

=== Q1 2023 ===

* Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2023. Following a 1.1 percent rise in the previous period and above market expectations of 1.1 percent<ref>https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm</ref>
* Wages and salaries increased 1.2 percent and benefit costs increased 1.2 percent from December 2022.
* Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 4.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. Wages and salaries increased 5.0 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023, and nenefit costs increased 4.5 percent over the year.
* Private wages and salaries increased 5.1 percent
*

== Atlanta Wage Tracker ==

== Compensation per hour ==

== Wages Impact on Inflation ==
https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/current-policy-perspectives/2024/is-post-pandemic-wage-growth-fueling-inflation.aspx

https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/macro_minute/2022/mm_11_15_22

== References ==

Automotive Industry: Current State of EV Sales

2024-12-06T01:57:12Z

MagaNH6:

See also: [[Automotive Industry|Automotive Industry |]] [[Volkswagen: Deliveries/EVs]] | [[Automotive Industry: Electric Vehicle Charging]]

Discussion: [https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/automotive-industry-electric-vehicles/189 Automotive Industry Electric Vehicles]

== Developments ==
September 13, 2023: The European commission has started an anti-subsidy investigation into electric vehicles coming from China as European Union gets frightened over the ability of its automotive industry to compete. “Their price is kept artificially low by huge state subsidies. This is distorting our market,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. "This is distorting our market. And as we do not accept this distortion from the inside in our market, we do not accept this from the outside," She pointed out. "Europe is open to competition but not to a race to the bottom. We must defend ourselves against unfair practices," She said<ref>https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/09/13/ursula-von-der-leyen-to-deliver-state-of-the-european-union-speech</ref>.

== Sales Developments ==

=== <big>1H 2023</big> ===
[[File:WW-A-6-2023.png|center|thumb|1001x1001px|https://www.ev-volumes.com/]]

A total of 6 million new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV) were delivered during the first half of 2023, an increase of +40 %. 4,27 million were pure electric BEVs and 1,76 million were PHEVs.<ref>https://www.ev-volumes.com/</ref>

* EV shares continued to climb in all markets. BEVs (10 %) and PHEVs (4,1 %) stood for 14,1 % of global light vehicle sales at the close of H1, compared to 11,3 % in 2022 H1.
* China EV sales increased by +37 % in 2023 H1 y/y, compared to +82 % in 2022 vs 2021
* Sales in Western and Central Europe were up +28 % in H1 compared to just +15 % growth in 2022
* EV sales in USA and Canada are +50 % higher YTD to June than last year.
* For the full year of 2023, we expect sales of 14 million EVs, growth of +33 % over 2022, with BEVs reaching 10 million units and PHEVs 4 million units. By the end of 2023 we expect 40 million EVs in operation, counting light vehicles, 70 % of which are BEVs and 30 % PHEVs
[[File:WW-P-6-2023.png|center|thumb|574x574px|https://www.ev-volumes.com/]]

* BYD nearly doubled H1 sales to 1,25 millionb units, making it #1 in the global EV sales ranking, with their 633 000 PHEV sales included. The company currently sells 17 BEV models and 8 PHEV models.
* Counting BEVs only, Tesla still leads by a wide margin with 889 000 units delivered in H1. Tesla leads global sales of BEVs by a large margin, with a share of 20,8 % in all BEVs sold worldwide. With a H1 growth of +57 %, Tesla gained EV sector share again, as did BYD.
* Some EV OEMs prioritize volume and market share growth, like BYD, Tesla, GAC (Aion) and Li Auto. Or they protect the tight margins they may have on EVs, like VW, Stellantis, Hyundai, BMW, NIO and Volvo.
* [[File:WW-S3-6-2023.png|center|thumb|638x638px|https://www.ev-volumes.com/]]
*

== EV Outlook ==

=== Gartner (September, 2023) ===

* Gartner forecasts that EV sales will grow by '''34% year-over-year to 15.4 million vehicles in 2023''' and by '''20% year-over-year to 18.5 million vehicles in 2024'''<ref>https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2023-09-07-gartner-forecasts-15-million-electric-cars-will-be-shipped-in-2023</ref>.
* Proportion of EV models to total vehicles will be more than 50% by 2030, according to Gartner.

=== International Energy Agency (April, 2023) ===
According to International Energy Agency(IEA), the electric car market is seeing exponential growth<ref name=":1">https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/dacf14d2-eabc-498a-8263-9f97fd5dc327/GEVO2023.pdf</ref>. Here is a summary of its Global EV Outlook 2023 publication.

==== Number of EV Sales Per Year ====

* EV sales exceeded 10 million in 2022, accounting for 14% of all new car sales, up from around 9% in 2021 and less than 10% in 2022.
* China was the front-runner in 2022, accounting for around 60% of global electric car sales.
* More than 50% of electric cars on roads worldwide are now in China and the country has exceeded its 2025 EV target.
* Europe, the second largest EV market, saw electric car sales rise by 15% in 2022.
* United States, the third-largest EV market, saw electric car sales rise by 55% in 2022.
* Electric car sales rose by around 160% and 54% year over year in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

[[File:Electric car sales.png|thumb|680x680px|Source: IEA Global EV Outlook 2023|alt=|center]]

==== EV Sales Outlook ====

* Electric car sales is expected to '''grow by 35% year over year in 2023 to 14 million vehicles.'''
* In Q1 of 2023, more than 2.3 million electric cars were sold, representing a growth rate of 25% year over year.
* Therefore, electric car sales is expected to account for 18% of total car sales in 2023.
* In Q1 of 2023, electric car sales in United States rose by 60% year over year to 320,000. IEA expects this growth rate to be sustained throughout 2023, bringing the total number of electric vehicles to 1.5 million in 2023.
* China electric car sales rose by 20% year over year in Q1 of 2023. IEA expects China electric car sales to grow by 30% year over year in 202 to 8 million.
* Europe electric car sales grew by around 10% year over year in Q1 of 2023. IEA expects Europe electric car sales to increase by 25% year over year in 2023.

* Based on IEA Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the initial global share of electric vehicles was projected to be less than 25% in 2030. But the outlook has now been raised to '''35% in 2030.'''

=== Goldman Sachs (February, 2023) ===
According to Goldman Sachs report, '''EV sales will account for half of new car sales worldwide by 2035''' as the world accelerates its push for net-zero carbon emissions<ref name=":0">https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicles-are-forecast-to-be-half-of-global-car-sales-by-2035.html</ref>.

==== EV Sales Outlook ====

* Goldman Sachs expects the number of EV sales to grow from 2 million in 2020 to 73 million units by 2040<ref name=":0" />.
* The share of EV sales as a percentage of total sales is forecasted to grow from 2% in 2020 to 61% by 2040.
* Between 2020 to 2030, EV sales is forecasted to grow by 32% annually.
* EV normalized profit is projected to grow from $6 billion in 2020 to $93 billion in 2030.

{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Period
!Global EV sales Growth
|-
|2020
|31%
|-
|2021
|124%
|-
|2022
|49%
|-
|2023
|34%
|-
|2024
|30%
|-
|2025
|27%
|-
|2026
|22%
|-
|2027
|17%
|-
|2028
|21%
|-
|2029
|17%
|-
|2030
|14%
|-
|2035
|10%
|-
|2040
|6%
|}

== Global EV Revenues ==

=== Projected EV Revenues ===

* According to Statista, global EV revenue is projected to rise by 4% year-over-year to 561.4 billion in 2023<ref>https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/electric-vehicles/worldwide</ref>.
* Revenue is expected to grow by a compound annual growth rate of 10.07% between 2023-2028 to reach $906.70 billion.

{| class="wikitable"
|'''Period'''
|'''Total EV revenue($ billion)'''
|'''Growth(%)'''
|'''Battery EV revenue'''
|'''Growth(%)'''
|'''Plug-In EV revenue'''
|'''Growth(%)'''
|-
|2016
|44.73
|
|26.74
|
|17.99
|
|-
|2017
|69.02
|54.30%
|42.79
|60.02%
|26.23
|45.80%
|-
|2018
|112.87
|63.53%
|72.55
|69.55%
|40.32
|53.72%
|-
|2019
|121.48
|7.63%
|85.07
|17.26%
|36.41
| -9.70%
|-
|2020
|176.08
|44.95%
|113.50
|33.42%
|62.58
|71.88%
|-
|2021
|352.00
|99.91%
|229.50
|102.20%
|122.50
|95.75%
|-
|2022
|538.80
|53.07%
|359.20
|56.51%
|179.60
|46.61%
|-
|2023
|561.40
|4.19%
|376.80
|4.90%
|184.60
|2.78%
|-
|2024
|623.40
|11.04%
|422.80
|12.21%
|200.60
|8.67%
|-
|2025
|687.80
|10.33%
|475.10
|12.37%
|212.70
|6.03%
|-
|2026
|744.70
|8.27%
|534.90
|12.59%
|209.80
| -1.36%
|-
|2027
|812.50
|9.10%
|603.10
|12.75%
|209.40
| -0.19%
|-
|2028
|906.70
|11.59%
|681.20
|12.95%
|225.50
|7.69%
|}

== Average EV Prices ==

* According to Statista, the average price of Battery Electric Vehicle is $48,810 in 2023 versus $48,510 in 2022<ref>https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/electric-vehicles/worldwide#units</ref>.
* On the other hand, the average price of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles is $63,260 in 2023 versus 63,290 in 2022. [[File:Average electric price 2.png|thumb|880x880px|https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/electric-vehicles/worldwide]]

== State of EV Competition ==

=== Global Market Share of EV Makers ===

* As of 2022, BYD lead with a market share of 18% followed by Tesla with a market share of around 13%<ref name=":1" />.
* Volkswagen came third with a market share of around 8%.[[File:Global EV market share.png|thumb|681x681px|Source: IEA Global EV Outlook 2023]]

=== U.S Market ===
According S&P Global data compiled between January 2022 and January 2023, Tesla U.S market share has been declining while that of its competitors is growing<ref>https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-losing-ev-dominance-151234275.html</ref>. Here is a summary of the findings.

* Tesla market share declined to 54% from 72%.
* General Motors market share grew to 9.9% from 0.1%.
* Ford market share grew from 5.2% to 8.4%.
* Volkswagen's market share grew from 4.2% to 6.0%.
* Hyundai market share declined to 5.4% from 7.8%.

=== China Market ===

* According to Counterpoint Research, BYD was the top EV seller in China in 2022 with a market share of 29.7%, followed by General Motors(GM) with 8.9% and then Tesla 8.8%<ref>https://www.counterpointresearch.com/china-ev-sales-2022/</ref>.The likes of Volkswagen did not appear in the top 5 list.
* According to Reuters, the combined EV market share of Audi, BMW, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz added up to only a quarter of BYD's in 2022<ref>https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-german-automakers-fight-defend-165410582.html</ref>.[[File:Top 5 EVs in China 2022.png|thumb|692x692px|Source: CounterPoint Research]]

=== Top BEV Models in Q1 2023 ===
* Tesla Model Y occupied the top position in Europe, U.S and China<ref>https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/de/en/industries/automotive/e-mobility-sales-review-2023-q1/electric-vehicle-sales-review-q1-2023.pdf</ref>.[[File:Top BEV models-globally.png|thumb|1206x1206px]]

=== European Market ===

* Chinese brands such as BYD, Nio and Xpeng have 8% electric market share in Europe, up from 4% in 2021<ref name=":2">https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/09/14/everything-we-know-about-the-eu-inquiry-into-chinese-electric-cars</ref>.
* Chinese brands are expected to capture up to 15% market share in 2025 if the trend continues<ref name=":2" />.
* According to KPMG, the average price of Chinese EV sold in Europe in 2022 was $30,000, lower than Tesla's cheapest model 3 which was selling at more than $45,000<ref>https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3223875/chinese-electric-cars-capture-15-cent-european-market-2025-leap-forward-exports-kpmg-economist?campaign=3223875&module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article</ref>.

== References ==

Automotive Industry: Electric Vehicle Charging

2024-12-06T01:55:50Z

MagaNH6: Created page with "== Forecasts == === 2024 Outlook === https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/outlook-for-electric-vehicle-charging-infrastructure"

== Forecasts ==

=== 2024 Outlook ===
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/outlook-for-electric-vehicle-charging-infrastructure

Auto Industry Cyclicality

2024-11-20T17:38:42Z

MagaNH6: /* China */

Forum Discussion: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/automotive-industry-cyclicality/316/2

The auto industry is also known to be cyclical, as car purchases can be easily delayed when households and businesses are short of cash. Figure 2 shows that the '''industry typically experiences greater volatility during recessions than real GDP.''' On average, '''real motor vehicle output has fallen nearly 12 times more than real GDP during downturns'''.<ref>https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/spotlight/automobile-impact-us-economy.html</ref>
[[File:US164922 Figure2.jpg|center|thumb|540x540px|https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/spotlight/automobile-impact-us-economy.html]]

Factors:

* '''Demand Fluctuations''': Consumer appetite for cars is directly tied to economic conditions. During times of prosperity, wallets loosen, boosting car sales. Conversely, recessions tighten belts, leading to fewer purchases and shrinking profits for automakers.<ref>https://medium.com/@falconeer7777/engines-on-a-rollercoaster-why-the-auto-industry-is-cyclical-aebad2d49ace</ref>
* '''High Entry Costs''': Building cars is expensive, requiring significant capital investments in production facilities, research and development, and inventory. This inflexibility makes it difficult for automakers to quickly adjust to shifting demand, exacerbating the cycle.
* '''Long Product Life Cycles''': Cars are not instant-noodles; they take months to develop and manufacture. This extended lead time means companies are at the mercy of future economic forecasts, potentially overproducing during upswings and facing oversupply during downturns.
* '''Debt Burden''': To fuel growth and technological advancements, automakers often carry substantial debt. When sales plummet, servicing this debt becomes a major challenge, further hindering recovery.
* '''Global Interconnectedness''': The auto industry is a tangled web of interconnected suppliers and markets. A slowdown in one region can ripple through the entire system, causing widespread disruption and amplifying the cyclical swings.

== 2008 Recession ==
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260164730_The_impact_of_the_2008-2009_crisis_on_the_automotive_industry_Global_trends_and_firm-level_effects_in_Central_Europe

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/230661682.pdf

=== <big>Production</big> ===
In the reporting period, global automotive production decreased by 13.2% to 60.0 million units, of which 49.4 million were passenger cars (–14.0%).<ref>https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/v/OTC_VWAGY_2009.pdf</ref>

==== By Geography ====
{| class="wikitable"
!Region<ref>https://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/2010-statistics/</ref>
!2007
!2008
!% CHANGE 2007-2008
!2009
!% CHANGE 2008-2009
!2010
!% change 2009-2010
|-
|'''EUROPE'''
|'''22,852,578'''
|'''21,777,794'''
|'''-4.7%'''
|'''17,057,293'''
|'''-21.7%'''
|'''19,794,758'''
|'''+16.0%'''
|-
|'''- EUROPEAN UNION 27 countries'''
|'''19,724,773'''
|'''18,439,079'''
|'''-6.6%'''
|'''15,289,992'''
|'''-17.1%'''
|'''17,078,825'''
|'''+11.7%'''
|-
|'''- EUROPEAN UNION 15 countries'''
|'''16,691,210'''
|'''15,174,690'''
|'''-9.1%'''
|'''12,242,621'''
|'''-19.3%'''
|'''13,797,321'''
|'''+12.7%'''
|-
|BELGIUM
|834,403
|724,498
| -13.2%
|537,354
| -25.8%
|555,302
| +3.3%
|-
|FRANCE
|3,015,854
|2,568,978
| -14.8%
|2,047,693
| -20.3%
|2,229,421
| +8.9%
|-
|GERMANY(1)
|6,213,460
|6,045,730
| -2.8%
|5,209,857
| -13.8%
|5,905,985
| +13.4%
|-
|ITALY
|1,284,312
|1,023,774
| -20.3%
|843,239
| -17.6%
|838,186
| -0.6%
|-
|SPAIN
|2,889,703
|2,541,644
| -12.0%
|2,170,078
| -14.6%
|2,387,900
| +10.0%
|-
|UNITED KINGDOM
|1,750,253
|1,649,515
| -5.8%
|1,090,139
| -33.9%
|1,393,463
| +27.8%
|-
|'''- EUROPEAN UNION New Members'''
|'''3,033,563'''
|'''3,264,389'''
|'''+7.5%'''
|'''3,047,371'''
|'''-6.6%'''
|'''3,281,504'''
|'''+7.7%'''
|-
|CZECH REPUBLIC
|937,648
|946,567
| +0.9%
|983,243
| +3.9%
|1,076,384
| +9.5%
|-
|POLAND
|792,703
|952,840
| +20.0%
|878,998
| -7.7%
|869,474
| -1.1%
|-
|'''- OTHER EUROPE'''
|'''2,028,392'''
|'''2,191,605'''
|'''+8.0%'''
|'''897,696'''
|'''-59.0%'''
|'''1,621,376'''
|'''+80.6%'''
|-
|CIS
|2,018,489
|2,179,977
| +8.0%
|880,958
| -59.6%
|1,606,176
| +82.3%
|-
|RUSSIA
|1,660,120
|1,790,301
| +7.8%
|725,012
| -59.5%
|1,403,244
| +93.5%
|-
|TURKEY
|1,099,413
|1,147,110
| +4.3%
|869,605
| -24.2%
|1,094,557
| +25.9%
|-
|'''AMERICA'''
|'''19,154,059'''
|'''16,858,889'''
|'''-11.7%'''
|'''12,531,425'''
|'''-25.7%'''
|'''16,343,430'''
|'''+30.4%'''
|-
|'''- NAFTA'''
|'''15,454,764'''
|'''12,922,326'''
|'''-16.1%'''
|'''8,760,965'''
|'''-32.2%'''
|'''12,153,564'''
|'''+38.7%'''
|-
|CANADA
|2,578,790
|2,082,241
| -19.4%
|1,490,482
| -28.4%
|2,068,189
| +38.8%
|-
|MEXICO
|2,095,245
|2,167,944
| +4.6%
|1,561,052
| -28.0%
|2,342,282
| +50.0%
|-
|USA
|10,780,729
|8,672,141
| -19.3%
|5,709,431
| -34.2%
|7,743,093
| +35.6%
|-
|'''- SOUTH AMERICA'''
|'''3,699,295'''
|'''3,936,563'''
|'''+6.6%'''
|'''3,770,460'''
|'''-4.2%'''
|'''4,189,866'''
|'''+11.1%'''
|-
|ARGENTINA
|544,647
|596,745
| +9.6%
|512,924
| -14.0%
|716,540
| +39.7%
|-
|BRAZIL
|2,977,150
|3,215,976
| +8.2%
|3,182,923
| -1.0%
|3,381,728
| +6.2%
|-
|'''ASIA-OCEANIA'''
|'''30,714,858'''
|'''31,507,000'''
|'''+1.8%'''
|'''31,760,155'''
|'''+0.8%'''
|'''40,930,255'''
|'''+28.9%'''
|-
|CHINA
|8,882,456
|9,299,180
| +5.2%
|13,790,994
| +48.3%
|18,264,761
| +32.4%
|-
|INDIA
|2,253,729
|2,332,328
| +2.7%
|2,641,550
| +13.3%
|3,557,073
| +34.7%
|-
|IRAN
|997,240
|1,273,781
| +5.4%
|1,394,075
| +9.4%
|1,599,454
| +14.7%
|-
|JAPAN
|11,596,327
|11,575,644
| -0.3%
|7,934,057
| -31.5%
|9,628,920
| +21.4%
|-
|SOUTH KOREA
|4,086,308
|3,826,682
| -6.8%
|3,512,926
| -8.2%
|4,271,741
| +21.6%
|-
|THAILAND
|1,287,346
|1,393,742
| +8.3%
|999,378
| -28.3%
|1,644,513
| +64.6%
|-
|'''AFRICA'''
|'''544,566'''
|'''586,013'''
|'''+7.0%'''
|'''413,451'''
|'''-29.4%'''
|'''515,076'''
|'''+24.6%'''
|-
|SOUTH AFRICA
|534,490
|562,965
| +5.3%
|373,923
| -33.6%
|472,049
| +26.2%
|-
|'''TOTAL'''
|'''73,266,061'''
|'''70,729,696'''
|'''-3.7%'''
|'''61,762,324'''
|'''-12.7%'''
|'''77,583,519'''
|'''+25.6%'''
|}

https://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/2008-statistics/

=== <big>Sales</big> ===
In 2009, global passenger car sales fell by 6.0% to 52.4 million vehicles. Unit sales largely stabilized in the last months of the reporting period, mainly as a result of government programs to promote sales and lucrative incentive packages from the manufacturers. <ref>https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/v/OTC_VWAGY_2009.pdf</ref>

* The Asia-Pacific region, due to the sharp increase in new pas- senger car registrations in China, and Western Europe, mainly due to the strong growth in Germany, were the only regions to record greater demand. . By contrast, the markets in Central and Eastern Europe, North America and South Africa recorded sharp declines.

*

==== <big>US</big> ====

* Spike in August 2009 sales was due to the Cash for Clunkers program. The US government’s incentive program was only able to ensure stability for a short time. 
[[File:AutoUSSales.png|center|thumb|1293x1293px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/shared/WSYQK59QR?:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]

* As seen in the figure below, the percentage of individuals reporting that the concurrent quarter was a bad time to buy a car spikes around the time of the auto sales collapse.<ref>https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2019/may/bigger-cause-2008-auto-sales-collapse-credit-conditions-economic-concerns</ref>
* There is an overwhelming increase in the percentage that chose economic conditions. The percentage choosing the other answer stayed relatively flat.
* '''Widely experienced negative shock to permanent income is a strong candidate explanation for the collapse.''' The explanation is consistent with the permanent income hypothesis adapted to include infrequent, discrete durable goods purchases. House price declines, on the other hand, explain only a small part of the auto sales decline.
* A related explanation for the d'''ecline in auto sales is the increase in uncertainty''' that many researchers have associated with the last recession. Bloom (2009) presents a model where irreversible investment in durable goods causes an increase in uncertainty to reduce purchases of durables. We note that a new vehicle purchase exhibits an aspect of irreversibility, because the resale value of a newly bought new auto falls dramatically immediately after being acquired.<ref>https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2018/2018-019.pdf</ref>
[[File:BlogImage BuyACar 041619.png|center|thumb|483x483px|https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2019/may/bigger-cause-2008-auto-sales-collapse-credit-conditions-economic-concerns]]
[[File:BlogImage ReasonsNotToBuyACar 041619.png|center|thumb|482x482px|https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2019/may/bigger-cause-2008-auto-sales-collapse-credit-conditions-economic-concerns]]

===== Cash for Clunkers Program =====
The program consisted of government payments to car dealers of $3,500 to $4,500 for every older less fuel efficient vehicle traded in by consumers that purchased a newer more fuel efficient vehicle.

* Program induced the purchase of an additional 360,000 cars in July and August of 2009. However, almost all of the additional purchases under the program were pulled forward from the very near future; the effect of the program on auto purchases is almost completely reversed by as early as March 2010 – only seven months after the program ended<ref>https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w16351/w16351.pdf</ref>
* The effect of the program on auto purchases was significantly more short-lived than previously suggested. We also find no evidence of an effect on employment, house prices, or household default rates in cities with higher exposure to the program.
* Indeed, over the seven months following the end of the CARS program in late August, the sales pace has averaged 10.7 million units at an annual rate, much higher than the 9.6 million pace in the three months that preceded the program, and considerably stronger than the forecasts made by private forecasters just before enactment of the CARS program.<ref>https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2010/04/05/did-cash-clunkers-work-intended</ref>

{| class="wikitable"
!Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA</ref>
! colspan="2" |Total Vehicle Sales
|-
!Units/Seasonality
!Millions of Units SAAR
!Y/Y
|-
|2015-01-01
|17.857
|5.93
|-
|2014-01-01
|16.858
|6.15
|-
|2013-01-01
|15.882
|7.45
|-
|2012-01-01
|14.781
|13.27
|-
|2011-01-01
|13.049
|10.85
|-
|2010-01-01
|11.772
|11.04
|-
|2009-01-01
|10.601
| -21.43
|-
|2008-01-01
|13.493
| -18.04
|-
|2007-01-01
|16.462
| -3.44
|-
|2006-01-01
|17.049
| -2.28
|-
|2005-01-01
|17.446
|0.87
|-
|2004-01-01
|17.296
|1.94
|}

==== <big>Europe</big> ====

* Demand for new vehicles in Western Europe rose slightly in the reporting period by 0.5% to 13.7 million units. At the beginning of the year, a dramatic market downturn was looming; however, this was avoided by government measures to promote sales by most automobile-producing countries in the region. The share of diesel vehicles in Western Europe fell to approximately 46% mainly as a result of the shift in demand to the mini and small car segments.<ref>https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/v/OTC_VWAGY_2009.pdf</ref>
* New car registrations collapsed in Central and Eastern Europe.
* Demand for passenger cars in Germany increased by 18.2% in fiscal year 2009 to 4.0 million vehicles. The passenger car market reached its highest level since 1992 with 3.8 mil- lion units sold (+23.2%), mainly due to the scrappingpremium. In contrast, new registrations of commercial vehicles, at 242 thousand (–27.7%), fell to their lowest level since reunification as a result of a decline in investment activity.
* German luxury auto makers BMW and Daimler saw sales slip more than other car companies last year as '''government cash-for-clunkers programs helped overall sales slow by just 1.6 percent from 2008.'''<ref>https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna31917402</ref>
* It said fleet renewal programs in major markets, especially Germany, helped sales pick up in the final six months of the year following a sharp slump in the first half.
* However, the '''payments to car buyers encouraged sales of smaller, lighter and more fuel-efficient cars''', helping Italy's Fiat Group SpA grow sales by 6.3 percent, France's Renault SA by 3.9 percent and Volkswagen AG — Europe's biggest car maker — by 0.7 percent. '''Heavier and more expensive models suffered.''' BMW's sales were down 13.6 percent and Daimler by 13 percent.
*

===== European Scrapping Schemes for Vehicles Stimulus =====

* '''The 'typical' scheme required the scrapping of a vehicle with a minimum age of 10 years, and provided an incentive of €1,500 for the purchase of a new car.''' In total, scrapping schemes have cost European governments €7.9 billion in outlay plus the cost of administration.<ref>https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/bcc4c732-6f54-4047-b661-42a5f3d1c490/report_scrapping_schemes_en.pdf</ref>
* The €7.9 billion of funding from the 2009 scrapping schemes would theoretically support a maximum of 4.44 million units over the schedule period. Of this, 4.1 million new passenger cars were actually incentivised during the 2009 calendar year, leaving a spill-over volume of 355,000 units for 2010. Not all of this was net additional demand; '''the study methodology generates an estimated 2.16 million incremental new car sales generated during the year.'''
* Vehicle assembly volumes on aggregate responded to the stimulus (in the midst of the sharpest and largest contraction in output ever witnessed) to the extent that we believe their '''response potentially forestalled, if not eventually prevented, the loss of up to 120,000 direct jobs in the industry.'''
* '''In the absence of European scrapping schemes, we predict that light vehicle production would have fallen by an additional two million units to little more than 13 million units, and thus would have recorded a collapse of 26% on 2008 vehicle output'''. There have been far less bankruptcies of component and parts manufacturers than was generally expected at the depth of the crisis.
* In terms of wider restructuring, they allowed a time for managed, and not enforced, rightsizing of industrial capacity.
* Some of the scheme conditions observed do prejudge, to some extent, which brands, models, or powertrains may gain the most, or lose out completely. For example, we have '''shown that larger cars, premium and luxury brands, and light commercial vehicles have been only marginal beneficiaries of these schemes.''' Some of the schemes specifically limit their scrapping scheme incentives to 'private individuals'.
* '''Two-thirds of the 2.16 million units of estimated additional demand generated by scrapping schemes was in the lowest price segments''' (A and B segment cars, and Utility Vans). Only 4.7% of additional customers bought SUVs, compared with 6% buying MPVs, and 20% buying compact cars (C1). The other segments combined (including medium and large cars, and premium and luxury vehicles) only benefited from 1.4% of the incremental incentivized sales.
* Our aggregate calculation for 2009 is that vehicle scrapping schemes added a net 0.16–0.2% to EU-wide GDP.

{| class="wikitable"
!Date<ref name=":0">https://www.acea.auto/figure/passenger-car-registrations-in-europe-since-1990-by-country/</ref>
! colspan="2" |Total Passenger Cars Registrations
!Total Auto Vehicle (Inclusing Commercial)
|-
!Units/Seasonality
!Units
!Y/Y
!
|-
|2015-01-01
|14,182,584
|9.13%
|
|-
|2014-01-01
|12,996,324
|5.42%
|
|-
|2013-01-01
|12,328,655
| -1.56%
|
|-
|2012-01-01
|12,523,650
| -7.97%
|
|-
|2011-01-01
|13,608,305
| -1.36%
|
|-
|2010-01-01
|13,796,230
| -5.01%
|
|-
|2009-01-01
|14,524,589
| -1.46%
|
|-
|2008-01-01
|14,739,999
| -7.89%
|
|-
|2007-01-01
|16,003,436
|1.17%
|
|-
|2006-01-01
|15,819,054
|3.70%
|
|-
|2005-01-01
|15,254,120
| -0.62%
|
|-
|2004-01-01
|15,349,816
|1.76%
|
|}

==== <big>China</big> ====

* '''Car sales in the country gained 33 percent in 2010 and 53 percent in 2009 thanks to Beijing's stimulus measure'''s, including tax incentives for small cars and subsidies for mini-van buyers in rural areas. The policies were scaled back in 2010 and scrapped completely at the beginning of 2011.
* In 2009 and 2010, China undertook a 4 trillion Yuan fiscal stimulus, roughly equivalent to 12 percent of annual GDP. The “fiscal” stimulus was largely financed by off-balance sheet companies (local financing vehicles) that borrowed and spent on behalf of local governments.<ref>https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-long-shadow-of-a-fiscal-expansion/</ref>
* Beijing boosted purchases by slashing sales taxes on smaller, fuel-efficient cars and spending $730 million on subsidies for buyers of SUVs, pickup trucks and minivans. Stimulus spending on building highways and other public works also helped to boost sales of trucks used in construction.<ref>https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sdut-china-surpasses-us-in-2009-auto-sales-2010jan08-story.html</ref>
* Back in 2009, Chinese authorities halved the tax to 5% for cars with 1.6 liter engines or smaller and raised it to 7.5% the next year before bringing it back to the original 10%.<ref>https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/China-automakers-call-for-stimulus-as-coronavirus-carnage-bites</ref>

{| class="wikitable"
!Date<ref name=":0" />
! colspan="2" |Total Passenger Cars Sales
! colspan="2" |Total Auto Vehicle Sales
|-
!Units/Seasonality
!Units Millions
!Y/Y
!Units Millions
!Y/Y
|-
|2015-01-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2014-01-01
|
|
|
|
|-
|2013-01-01<ref>https://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2014/01/china-full-year-2013-wuling-hongguang-and-vw-lavida-reach-new-heights/#:~:text=The%20Chinese%20new%20car%20market,18%25%20to%2017.93%20million%20units.</ref>
|17.93
|18
|21.98
|14
|-
|2012-01-01<ref>https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/competitiveness/article/21959232/car-sales-in-china-disappoint-in-2012-china-automobile-association-says</ref>
|15.5
|7.1
|19.31
|4.3
|-
|2011-01-01<ref>https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL3E8CH0V9/</ref>
|14.47
|5.2
|18.51
|2.5
|-
|2010-01-01<ref>https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70926X/</ref>
|13.8
|33.9
|18.1
|32.4
|-
|2009-01-01<ref>https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE60A053/</ref>
|10.3
|52.9
|13.6
|44
|-
|2008-01-01<ref>https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSHA361216/</ref>
|6.76
|7.27
|9.38
|6.7
|-
|2007-01-01<ref>https://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/11/business/worldbusiness/11iht-chicar.4174983.html</ref><ref>https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-01/09/content_9292112.htm</ref><ref>http://www.china.org.cn/english/business/239227.htm</ref>
|6.3
|
|8.79
|21.8
|-
|2006-01-01
|3.8
|
|7.22
|25.3
|-
|2005-01-01
|
|
|5.76
|13.5
|-
|2004-01-01
|
|
|
|
|}
[[File:030b65cd4c1eac5b8e8f4b31b8a38b796ee61490 2 672x500.png|center|thumb|645x645px|https://www.statista.com/statistics/233942/chinas-share-of-global-production-capacity-of-the-automobile-industry/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20about%2032.5%20percent,had%20been%20manufactured%20in%20China.]]

=== <big>Prices</big> ===
[[File:Prices Indexed Recession Start (3).png|alt=|center|thumb|1301x1301px|https://public.tableau.com/views/USAutomotiveIndustry/PricesIndexedRecessionStart?:language=en-US&:sid=&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link]]

==== <big>US</big> ====
'''New'''
[[File:CPI New Cars.png|center|thumb|1292x1292px|https://public.tableau.com/shared/XGMMQ9W2H?:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link]]

'''Used'''
[[File:CPI Used Cars.png|center|thumb|1301x1301px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/shared/Z6TWSFD99?:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]

==== <big>Europe</big> ====
[[File:HICP Motor Cars EU.png|center|thumb|1296x1296px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/shared/Z6TWSFD99?:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]

=== Specific Companies Financials ===
{| class="wikitable"
!
! colspan="20" |Volkswagen
|-
!Date
!Revenue (M)
!Y/Y
!Sales (Units)
!Y/Y
!Profit After Tax (M)
!Y/Y
!EPS
!Y/Y
!Gross Margin
!Y/Y
!Employees
!Y/Y
!Production (Units)
!Y/Y
!Net Cash Flow
!Y/Y
!CAPEX
!Y/Y
!Inventories
!Y/Y
|-
|2005
|93,996
|
|5,192,576
|
|1,120
|
|2.90
|
|13.0
|
|344,902
|
|5,219,478
|
|2,391
|
|4,316
|
|12,643
|
|-
|2006
|104,875<ref>https://www.volkswagen-group.com/en/publications/corporate/annual-report-2006-2324/download?disposition=attachment</ref>
|11.6%
|5,720,096
|10.2%
|2,750
|145.5%
|7.07
|143.8%
|13.2
|1.5%
|324,875
| -5.8%
|5,659,578
|8.4%
|5,631
|135.5%
|3,644
| -15.6%
|12,463
| -1.4%
|-
|2007
|108,897<ref>https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/assets/common/pdf/annual-reports/annual-report-2007.pdf</ref>
|3.8%
|6,191,618
|8.2%
|4,122
|49.9%
|10.43
|47.5%
|15
|13.6%
|329,305
|1.4%
|6,213,332
|9.8%
|7,109
|26.2%
|3,644
|0.0%
|14,031
|12.6%
|-
|2008
|113,808<ref>https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/assets/common/pdf/annual-reports/annual-report-2008.pdf</ref>
|4.5%
|6,271,724
|1.3%
|4,688
|13.7%
|11.92
|14.3%
|15.1
|0.7%
|369,928
|12.3%
|6,346,515
|2.1%
| -2,679
| -137.7%
|6,773
|85.9%
|17,816
|27.0%
|-
|2009
|105,187<ref>https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/v/OTC_VWAGY_2009.pdf</ref>
| -7.6%
|6,309,743
|0.6%
|911
| -80.6%
|2.38
| -80.0%
|12.9
| -14.6%
|368,500
| -0.4%
|6,054,829
| -4.6%
|2,563
| -195.7%
|5,783
| -14.6%
|14,124
| -20.7%
|-
|2010
|126,875<ref>https://www.volkswagen-group.com/en/publications/corporate/annual-report-2010-2328</ref>
|20.6%
|7,278,440
|15.4%
|7,226
|693.2%
|15.17
|537.4%
|16.9
|31.0%
|399,381
|8.4%
|7,357,505
|21.5%
|4,835
|88.6%
|5,656
| -2.2%
|17,631
|24.8%
|-
|2011
|159,337<ref>https://www.volkswagen-group.com/en/publications/corporate/annual-report-2011-2329</ref>
|25.6%
|8,361,294
|14.9%
|15,799
|118.6%
|33.1
|118.2%
|17.6
|4.1%
|501,956
|25.7%
|8,494,280
|15.5%
|1,112
| -77.0%
|7,929
|40.2%
|27,551
|56.3%
|-
|2012
|192,676<ref>https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/assets/common/pdf/annual-reports/annual-report-2012.pdf</ref>
|20.9%
|9,344,559
|11.8%
|21,717
|40.9%
|46.42
|40.24%
|18.2
|3.41%
|549,763
|9.5%
|9,255,384
|9%
| -223
|
|10,271
|29.5%
|28,674
|4.08%
|-
! colspan="21" |BMW
|-
!Date
!Revenue (M)
!Y/Y
!Sales (Units)
!Y/Y
!Profit After Tax (M)
!Y/Y
!EPS
!Y/Y
!Gross Margin
!Y/Y
!Employees
!Y/Y
!Production (Units)
!Y/Y
!Operating Cash Flow
!Y/Y
!CAPEX
!Y/Y
!Inventories
!Y/Y
|-
|2005
|46,656
|
|1,327,992
|
|2,239
|
|3.33
|
|22.9
|
|105,798
|
|1,323,119
|
|6,184
|
|3,993
|
|6,527
|
|-
|2006
|48,999
|5.0%
|1,373,970
|3.5%
|2,874
|28.4%
|4.38
|31.5%
|23.1
|0.9%
|106,575
|0.7%
|1,366,838
|3.3%
|5,373
| -13.1%
|4,313
|8.0%
|6,794
|4.1%
|-
|2007
|56,018<ref>https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/b/OTC_BAMGF_2007.pdf</ref>
|14.3%
|1,500,678
|9.2%
|3,134
|9.0%
|4.78
|9.1%
|21.8
| -5.6%
|107,539
|0.9%
|1,541,503
|12.8%
|6,246
|16.2%
|4,267
| -1.1%
|7,349
|8.2%
|-
|2008
|53,197
| -5.0%
|1,435,876
| -4.3%
|330
| -89.5%
|0.49
| -89.7%
|11.4
| -47.7%
|118,452
|10.1%
|1,439,918
| -6.6%
|4,471
| -28.4%
|4,204
| -1.5%
|7,290
| -0.8%
|-
|2009
|50,681<ref>https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/b/OTC_BAMGF_2009.pdf</ref>
| -4.7%
|1,286,310
| -10.4%
|210
| -36.4%
|0.31
| -36.7%
|10.5
| -7.9%
|93,243
| -21.3%
|1,258,417
| -12.6%
|4,921
|10.1%
|3,471
| -17.4%
|6,555
| -10.1%
|-
|2010
|60,477
|19.3%
|1,461,166
|13.6%
|3,243
|1444.3%
|1.3
|319.4%
|18.1
|72.4%
|112,271
|20.4%
|1,481,253
|17.7%
|8,149
|65.6%
|3,263
| -6.0%
|7,766
|18.5%
|-
|2011
|68,821<ref>https://www.bmwgroup.com/content/dam/grpw/websites/bmwgroup_com/ir/downloads/en/2012/hv/2011-BMW-Group-Annual-Report.pdf</ref>
|13.8%
|1,668,982
|14.2%
|4,907
|51.3%
|2.3
|76.9%
|21.1
|16.6%
|118,865
|5.9%
|1,738,160
|17.3%
|7,077
| -13.2%
|3,692
|13.1%
|9,638
|24.1%
|-
! colspan="21" |Daimler AG
|-
!Date
!Revenue (M)
!Y/Y
!Sales (Units M)
!Y/Y
!Profit After Tax (M)
!Y/Y
!EPS
!Y/Y
!Gross Margin
!Y/Y
!Employees
!Y/Y
!Production (Units)
!Y/Y
!Operating Cash Flow
!Y/Y
!CAPEX
!Y/Y
!Inventories
!Y/Y
|-
|2005
|95,209
|
|2,061,904
|
|4,215
|
|4.09
|
|3
|
|293,839
|
|2,049,512
|
|11,032
|
|3,445
|
|19,139
|
|-
|2006
|99,222
|4.2%
|2,072,884
|0.5%
|3,783
| -10.2%
|3.66
| -10.5%
|5
|66.7%
|274,024
| -6.7%
|2,249,973
|9.8%
|14,337
|30.0%
|3,005
| -12.8%
|18,396
| -3.9%
|-
|2007
|99,399<ref>https://group.mercedes-benz.com/documents/investors/reports/annual-report/daimler/daimler-ir-annualreport-2007.pdf</ref>
|0.2%
|2,088,973
|0.8%
|3,985
|5.3%
|3.83
|4.6%
|8.6
|76.0%
|272,382
| -0.6%
|2,238,023
| -0.5%
|7,146
| -50.2%
|2,927
| -2.6%
|14,086
| -23.4%
|-
|2008
|95,873<ref>https://group.mercedes-benz.com/documents/investors/reports/annual-report/daimler/daimler-ir-annualreport-2008.pdf</ref>
| -3.5%
|2,072,876
| -0.8%
|1,414
| -64.5%
|1.41
| -63.2%
|2.8
| -68.2%
|273,216
|0.3%
|2,149,785
| -3.9%
| -786
| -111.0%
|3,559
|21.6%
|16,805
|19.3%
|-
|2009
|78,924<ref>https://group.mercedes-benz.com/documents/investors/reports/annual-report/daimler/daimler-ir-annualreport-2009.pdf</ref>
| -17.7%
|1,385,715
| -33.2%
| -2,644
| -287.0%
| -2.63
| -286.5%
| -1.9
| -167.9%
|256,407
| -6.2%
|1,456,369
| -32.3%
|10,961
| -1494.5%
|2,423
| -31.9%
|12,845
| -23.6%
|-
|2010
|97,761<ref>https://group.mercedes-benz.com/documents/investors/berichte/geschaeftsberichte/daimler/daimler-ir-annualreport-2010.pdf</ref>
|23.9%
|1,895,432
|36.8%
|4,674
| -276.8%
|4.28
| -262.7%
|7.4
| -489.5%
|260,100
|1.4%
|1,940,732
|33.3%
|8,544
| -22.1%
|3,653
|50.8%
|14,544
|13.2%
|-
|2011
|106,540<ref>https://group.mercedes-benz.com/documents/investors/berichte/geschaeftsberichte/daimler/daimler-ir-annualreport-2011.pdf</ref>
|9.0%
|2,111,106
|11.4%
|6,029
|29.0%
|5.32
|24.3%
|8.2
|10.8%
|271,370
|4.3%
|2,137,243
|10.1%
| -696
| -108.1%
|4,158
|13.8%
|17,081
|17.4%
|}

==== Volkwagen ====

===== 2009 =====

* The Automotive Division generated sales revenue of €93.0 billion in the reporting period. The '''9.3% decline compared with the previous year was mainly due to volume and mix deteriorations.'''<ref>https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/v/OTC_VWAGY_2009.pdf</ref>
* '''The shift in volumes towards smaller vehicles, especially in Germany, had a particularly adverse effect.''' Profit was also negatively impacted by exchange rate effects, including from currencies such as the Russian ruble, the Swedish krona, or the Polish zloty. The positive business performance in China is not reflected in operating profit, as our Chinese joint ventures are accounted for using the equity method.
* During turbulent times, the V'''olkswagen Group’s financial position was strengthened above all by optimized inventories''', which were reflected in the significant improvement in working capital. We aligned production volumes with the continuing critical market situation. The resulting reduction in inventories was a significant factor behind the reduction of cash tied up in working capital.
* As the '''negative market development led to high inventories in the second half of 2008 in particular, production volumes were adjusted in fiscal year 2009.''' Worldwide inventories were much lower at the end of 2009 than in the previous year in the Group companies and the dealer organization. The lower inventory levels in the reporting period also took the pressure off many dealers.
* W'''ere even able to exceed the deliveries recorded in 2008. This is mainly due to our attractive model range, but also to incentive programs and support measures resolved by many countries''' to mitigate the effects of the financial and economic crisis on the automotive industry in particular. As announced, we gained additional market share worldwide during the crisis as a result of the good delivery situation.
* '''€6.2 billion of funds were released from working capital, mainly because of the pronounced reduction in stockpiled inventories and lower receivables'''; in the previous year, the division had reported funds tied up in working capital of €2.1 billion. As a result, cash flows from operating activities rose sharply, by 45.6% to €12.8 billion.
* '''At €5.8 billion, investments in property, plant and equipment in the Automotive Division were 14.6% lower year-on-year in fiscal year 2009.''' The ratio of investments in property, plant and equipment to sales revenue (capex) was in line with our expectations at 6.2% (6.6%). '''At €1.9 billion, capitalized development costs were lower than in the previous year (-12.1%) '''
'''By Geography'''

Deliveries to customers worldwide amounted to 6,336,222 vehicles in fiscal year 2009, which was 1.3% over the previous year’s figure.

Sales of almost all Group brands were adversely affected by the financial and economic crisis. Only the Volkswagen Passenger Cars and Škoda brands were able to improve their deliveries year-on-year, mainly due to high demand in Germany and China.

* In fiscal year 2009, deliveries to Group customers in Western Europe fell below the previous year’s level. This region accounted for the largest proportion of our vehicles sold, accounting for 46.1% (previous year: 47.8%) of the Group’s total delivery volume. Sales of almost all Group brands fell year-on-year due to the difficult market environment. Only the Volkswagen Passenger Cars and Škoda brands were able to exceed 2008 sales figures due to positive effects from government subsidy programs.
* In Central and Eastern Europe, deliveries to customers were down 31.2% year-on-year.
* Volkswagen Group deliveries in South Africa were down 28.0% year-on-year due to the repercussions of the financial and economic crisis and continued restrictive credit policies, with demand for entry-level models in particular dropping sharply.
* In the past fiscal year, the Volkswagen Group increased its sales in the German passenger car market by 17.6% year- on-year; this was mainly as a result of the government scrapping premium and our attractive product portfolio.
* Despite the negative trend on the global market, the passenger car markets in the Asia-Pacific region recorded an overall increase in demand in fiscal year 2009 due to the positive development of the Chinese market, which profited from the tax breaks granted when buying small cars.
* In the extremely sluggish US passenger car market, the Volkswagen Group’s sales figures fell only slightly below the previous year’s figure during the reporting period (–5.3%). The decline was thus lower than that experienced by the market as a whole. The US government’s incentive program was only able to ensure stability for a short time. ''' '''
[[File:Screenshot 2024-03-13 141228.png|center|thumb|643x643px|https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/v/OTC_VWAGY_2009.pdf]]
[[File:Screenshot 2024-03-13 141252.png|center|thumb|750x750px|
* https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/v/OTC_VWAGY_2009.pdf]]

==== General Motors ====
'''Why did it failed?'''

GM’s financial stability had been crumbling prior to the 2008 economic recession and many blame management as being more concerned with turning a profit than pursuing quality and innovation. In 2005, the company reported a massive loss of $10.6 billion; this loss grew to $38.7 billion in 2007, and the following year the company warned that it would run out of cash around mid-2009 without the support of government funding, a merger, or selling off its assets.<ref>https://www.dividend.com/how-to-invest/how-to-bankrupt-a-multi-billion-dollar-company-general-motors-gm/#:~:text=What%20Pushed%20GM%20to%20Bankruptcy,than%20pursuing%20quality%20and%20innovation.</ref>

* It became clearer during the 2000s that demand for less fuel-efficient vehicles, typically trucks, was losing momentum. Rising gas prices and changes in consumer preferences collided to make for a powerful storm that would help knock down the already financially-fragile GM.

* During the ’80s and more so in the ’90s, the push towards fuel efficiency crippled GM in another way. Because the company was accustomed to making the biggest profit on its larger, less fuel efficient models, it failed to innovate on the product development front and was left behind.<ref>https://www.dividend.com/how-to-invest/how-to-bankrupt-a-multi-billion-dollar-company-general-motors-gm/#:~:text=What%20Pushed%20GM%20to%20Bankruptcy,than%20pursuing%20quality%20and%20innovation.</ref>
* After the 2000s, GM continued to make what people saw as noncompetitive vehicles. GM was mainly selling poorly designed cars that were expensive to build. In the end, General Motors was put face to face with excess production capacity. . The company was known to focus mainly on profits from finance rather than building better vehicles and improving the current ones. Customer needs and expectations, innovation by competitors, and the availability of new technologies still didn’t force GM into making improvements.<ref>https://medium.failfection.com/general-motors-and-how-this-huge-company-lost-its-way-daeb4e01e7eb#:~:text=General%20Motors%20failed%20due%20to,Hummer%20was%20a%20big%20deal.</ref>
* The company had mostly fixed costs for its manufacturing process. When sales went down, the costs didn’t. This is what affected GM the most. The company couldn’t keep itself afloat or even manufacture vehicles if it cut costs. On top of that, General Motors was known for having fixed costs on union contracts. They had to respect the legacy of healthcare costs and company pensions even if they tried to cut down on costs in other ways.

=== <big>Best Selling Cars</big> ===

==== Europe ====
Volume segments such as minicars made significant gainsin 2009 thanks largely to government-funded scrapping incentives, while demand for large models nearly collapsed.

{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Segment<ref>https://europe.autonews.com/article/20100421/ANE/100419894/europe-s-2009-segment-winners-and-losers</ref>
!Total Units 2009
!% Change 2009
!Comments
|-
|Minicar
|1,649,074
|<nowiki>+31.9%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Subcompact
|3,206,522
|<nowiki>+6.7%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Compact
|3,206,522
|<nowiki>+0.2%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Mid-Sized
|849,544
|<nowiki>-12.1%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Large
|57,709
|<nowiki>-11.0%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Coupe
|57,310
|<nowiki>+174.0%</nowiki>
|Number is high because of a comparison with low sales the year before;
this happens when new models or were only on the market for a few

months the year before
|-
|Roadsters
|126,833
|<nowiki>-33.2%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Car Derived Van
|290,489
|<nowiki>+24.1%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Small Minivan
|440,222
|<nowiki>+13.6%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Medium Minivan
|751,533
|<nowiki>-24.3%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Large Minivan
|168,293
|<nowiki>-25.7%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Small SUV
|114,135
|<nowiki>-3.8%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Medium SUV
|492,034
|<nowiki>-12.6%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Large SUV
|38,497
|<nowiki>-33.7%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Entry Premium
|847,216
|<nowiki>-2.6%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Lower Premium
|632,269
|<nowiki>-23.7%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Medium Premium
|339,139
|<nowiki>-20.1%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Upper Premium
|36,563
|<nowiki>-12.6%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Premium Coupe
|162,268
|<nowiki>-11.9%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Premium Roadster
|130,438
|<nowiki>-19.5%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Premium Medium SUV
|199,686
|<nowiki>+101.3%</nowiki>
|Number is high because of a comparison with low sales the year before;

this happens when new models or were only on the market for a few

months the year before
|-
|Premium Large SUV
|179,335
|<nowiki>-31.6%</nowiki>
|
|-
|Exotics
|9,910
| -30.8%
|
|}

See more details: https://europe.autonews.com/article/20100421/ANE/100419894/europe-s-2009-segment-winners-and-losers

== 2001 Recession ==

=== Production ===

=== Sales ===

=== Prices ===

=== Inventory ===

=== Specific Companies Financials ===
{| class="wikitable"
!
! colspan="20" |Volkswagen
|-
!Date
!Revenue (M)
!Y/Y
!Sales (Units)
!Y/Y
!Profit After Tax (M)
!Y/Y
!EPS
!Y/Y
!Gross Margin
!Y/Y
!Employees
!Y/Y
!Production (Units)
!Y/Y
!Net Cash Flow
!Y/Y
!CAPEX
!Y/Y
!Inventories
!Y/Y
|-
|1999
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|2000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|2001
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|2002
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|2003
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|2004
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|}
== 1990 Recession ==

== References ==

Household Debt and Credit: US

2024-11-19T00:54:00Z

MagaNH6:

See also: [[Personal Consumption Expenditure]] | [[Personal Income]]

Forum Discussion: [https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/consumer-debt-and-credit/198/3 Consumer Debt and Credit]

Data: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzvIAz6CBS78vH1moNA-foaZA0HWOb-AG1DfvCUJDio/edit?gid=1473352676#gid=1473352676 Google Sheet] | Tableau

== Balances ==
{| class="wikitable"
!Date

Trillions of $<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.html</ref>
!Mortgage
!HE Revolving
!Auto Loan
!Credit Card
!Student Loan
!Other
!Total
|-
|24:Q3
|12.59
|0.387
|1.644
|1.166
|1.606
|0.546
|17.943
|-
|24:Q2
|12.52
|0.380
|1.626
|1.142
|1.585
|0.544
|17.796
|-
|24:Q1
|12.44
|0.376
|1.616
|1.115
|1.595
|0.543
|17.687
|-
|23:Q4
|12.25
|0.360
|1.607
|1.129
|1.601
|0.554
|17.503
|-
|23:Q3
|12.14
|0.349
|1.595
|1.079
|1.599
|0.529
|17.291
|-
|23:Q2
|12.01
|0.340
|1.582
|1.031
|1.569
|0.527
|17.063
|-
|23:Q1
|12.04
|0.339
|1.562
|0.986
|1.604
|0.512
|17.047
|-
|22:Q4
|11.92
|0.336
|1.552
|0.986
|1.595
|0.507
|16.899
|-
|22:Q3
|11.67
|0.322
|1.524
|0.925
|1.574
|0.491
|16.505
|-
|22:Q2
|11.39
|0.319
|1.502
|0.887
|1.589
|0.470
|16.154
|-
|22:Q1
|11.18
|0.317
|1.469
|0.841
|1.590
|0.445
|15.842
|-
|21:Q4
|10.93
|0.318
|1.458
|0.856
|1.576
|0.438
|15.576
|-
|21:Q3
|10.67
|0.317
|1.443
|0.804
|1.584
|0.423
|15.243
|-
|21:Q2
|10.44
|0.322
|1.415
|0.787
|1.570
|0.421
|14.957
|-
|21:Q1
|10.16
|0.335
|1.382
|0.770
|1.584
|0.413
|14.644
|-
|20:Q4
|10.04
|0.349
|1.374
|0.819
|1.555
|0.419
|14.559
|-
|20:Q3
|9.86
|0.362
|1.36
|0.81
|1.55
|0.42
|14.35
|-
|20:Q2
|9.78
|0.375
|1.34
|0.82
|1.54
|0.42
|14.27
|-
|20:Q1
|9.71
|0.39
|1.35
|0.89
|1.54
|0.43
|14.30
|-
|19:Q4
|9.56
|0.39
|1.33
|0.93
|1.51
|0.43
|14.15
|}
[[File:Household Debt Y Y Growthq32024.png|center|thumb|1319x1319px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/views/ConumerDebt/HouseholdDebtGrowthTrends?:language=en-US&:sid=&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]

=== Debt to Income and GDP ===
[[File:Debt to Incomeq32024.png|center|thumb|1330x1330px|[https://public.tableau.com/views/ConumerDebt/Sheet1?:language=en-US&:sid=&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link]]]
[[File:Debt to GDP.png|center|thumb|1362x1362px|[https://public.tableau.com/views/ConumerDebt/DebttoGDP?:language=en-US&:sid=&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link]]]

=== Q2 2024 ===
The report shows total household debt increased by $109 billion (0.6%) in Q2 2024, to $17.80 trillion.<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2024/20240806</ref>

* Mortgage originations continued increasing at about the same pace seen in the previous four quarters and stood at $374 billion
* Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased modestly by $69 billion, representing a 1.4% increase from the previous quarter.
* Limits on HELOC increased by $3 billion, the ninth consecutive quarterly increase.
* Aggregate delinquency rates were unchanged from the previous quarter, with 3.2% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency.

'''Household Debt and Credit Developments as of Q2 2024'''
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Category'''
|'''Quarterly Change * (Billions $)'''
|'''Annual Change** (Billions $)'''
|'''Total As of Q1 2024 (Trillions $)'''
|-
|Mortgage Debt
|(+) $77
|(+) $505
|$12.519
|-
|Home Equity Line of Credit
|(+) $4
|(+) $40
|$0.38
|-
|Student Debt
|(-) $10
|(-) $16
|$1.585
|-
|Auto Debt
|(+) $10
|(+) $44
|$1.626
|-
|Credit Card Debt
|(+) $27
|(+) $111
|$1.142
|-
|Other
|(+) $1
|(+) 17
|$0.544
|-
|Total Debt
|(+) $109
|(+) $733
|$17.80
|}

'''Flow into Serious Delinquency (90 days or more delinquent)'''
{| class="wikitable"
!Category1
!Q2 2023
!Q2 2024
|-
|Mortgage Debt
|0.63%
|0.95%
|-
|Home Equity Line of Credit
|0.44%
|0.51%
|-
|Student Loan Debt
|0.85%
|0.77%
|-
|Auto Loan Debt
|2.41%
|2.88%
|-
|Credit Card Debt
|5.08%
|7.18%
|-
|Other
|4.65%
|5.42%
|-
|ALL
|1.16%
|1.59%
|}

=== Q1 2024 ===
The report shows total household debt increased by $184 billion (1.1%) in the first quarter of 2024, to $17.69 trillion.<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2024/20240514</ref>

* Mortgage originations continued increasing at the same pace seen in the previous three quarters, and now stand at $403 billion
* Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased modestly by $63 billion, representing a 1.3% increase from the previous quarter.
* Limits on HELOC grew by $30 billion and have grown by 14% over the past two years, after 10 years of observed declines.
* Aggregate delinquency rates increased in Q1 2024, with 3.2% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency at the end of March. Delinquency transition rates increased for all debt types. Annualized, approximately 8.9% of credit card balances and 7.9% of auto loans transitioned into delinquency.

'''Household Debt and Credit Developments as of Q1 2024'''
{| class="wikitable"
!'''CATEGORY'''
!'''QUARTERLY CHANGE * (BILLIONS $)'''
!'''ANNUAL CHANGE** (BILLIONS $)'''
!'''TOTAL AS OF Q1 2024 (TRILLIONS $)'''
|-
|MORTGAGE DEBT
|(+) $190
|(+) $398
|$12.442
|-
|HOME EQUITY LINE OF CREDIT
|(+) $16
|(+) $37
|$0.376
|-
|STUDENT DEBT
|(-) $6
|(-) $9
|$1.595
|-
|AUTO DEBT
|(+) $9
|(+) $54
|$1.616
|-
|CREDIT CARD DEBT
|(-) $14
|(+) $129
|$1.115
|-
|OTHER
|(-) $11
|(+) $31
|$0.543
|-
|'''TOTAL DEBT'''
|'''(+) $184'''
|'''(+) $640'''
|'''$17.69'''
|}

'''Flow into Serious Delinquency (90 days or more delinquent)'''
{| class="wikitable"
!CATEGORY1
!Q1 2023
!Q1 2024
|-
|MORTGAGE DEBT
|0.59%
|0.92%
|-
|HOME EQUITY LINE OF CREDIT
|0.48%
|0.52%
|-
|STUDENT LOAN DEBT
|0.94%
|0.80%
|-
|AUTO LOAN DEBT
|2.33%
|2.78%
|-
|CREDIT CARD DEBT
|4.57%
|6.86%
|-
|OTHER
|4.35%
|5.43%
|-
|ALL
|'''1.08%'''
|'''1.54%'''
|}

=== Q4 2023 ===
The report shows total household debt increased by $212 billion (1.2%) in the fourth quarter of 2023<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2024/20240206</ref>

* Mortgage originations continued at a similar pace as seen in the previous two quarters, and now stand at $394 billion.
* Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased modestly by $74 billion, representing a 1.6% increase from the previous quarter.
* Limits on HELOC grew by $24 billion and have grown by 10% over the past two years, after 10 years of observed declines.

{| class="wikitable"
|'''CATEGORY'''
|'''QUARTERLY CHANGE *'''
'''(BILLIONS $)'''
|'''ANNUAL CHANGE**'''
'''(BILLIONS $)'''
|'''TOTAL AS OF Q4 2023'''
'''(TRILLIONS $)'''
|-
|Mortgage Debt
|(+) $112
|(+) $329
|$12.25
|-
|Home Equity Line Of Credit
|(+) $11
|(+) $24
|$0.36
|-
|Student Debt
|(+) $2
|(+) $6
|$1.601
|-
|Auto Debt
|(+) $12
|(+) $55
|$1.61
|-
|Credit Card Debt
|(+) $50
|(+) $143
|$1.13
|-
|Other
|(+) $25
|(+) $47
|$0.55
|-
|Total Debt
|(+) $212
|(+) $604
|$17.50
|}
'''Flow into Serious Delinquency (90 days or more delinquent)'''
{| class="wikitable"
|'''CATEGORY''' 1
|'''Q4 2022'''
|'''Q4 2023'''
|-
|Mortgage Debt
|0.57%
|0.82%
|-
|Home Equity Line Of Credit
|0.51%
|0.45%
|-
|Student Loan Debt
|1.02%
|0.79%
|-
|Auto Loan Debt
|2.22%
|2.66%
|-
|Credit Card Debt
|4.01%
|6.36%
|-
|Other
|3.96%
|5.15%
|-
|'''ALL'''
|'''1.03%'''
|'''1.42%'''
|}

=== Q3 2023 ===
The Report shows total household debt increased by $228 billion (1.3%) in the third quarter of 2023, to $17.29 trillion.<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2023/20231107</ref>

* Mortgage originations modestly declined to $386 billion in Q3 2023 and are well below the robust quarterly origination volumes observed between 2020 and 2021.
* The volume of newly originated auto loans, which includes leases, slightly increased and now stands at $179.3 billion.
* Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased by $113 billion, a 2.46% increase from the previous quarter.
* Aggregate delinquency rates increased in Q3 2023, with 3% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency at the end of September. Delinquency transition rates increased for most debt types except student loans and home equity lines of credit. The increases in credit card delinquency were the sharpest among borrowers between the ages of 30 and 39.

'''Household Debt and Credit Developments as of Q3 2023'''
{| class="wikitable"
|'''CATEGORY'''
|'''QUARTERLY CHANGE * (BILLIONS $)'''
|'''ANNUAL CHANGE**(BILLIONS $)'''
|'''TOTAL AS OF Q3 2023 (TRILLIONS $)'''
|-
|Mortgage Debt
|(+) $126
|(+) $471
|$12.14
|-
|Home Equity Line Of Credit
|(+) $9
|(+) $27
|$0.349
|-
|Student Debt
|(+) $30
|(+) $25
|$1.599
|-
|Auto Debt
|(+) $13
|(+) $71
|$1.595
|-
|Credit Card Debt
|(+) $48
|(+) $154
|$1.079
|-
|Other
|(+) $2
|(+) $38
|$0.529
|-
|'''Total Debt'''
|'''(+) $228'''
|'''(+) $786'''
|'''$17.291'''
|}

'''Flow into Serious Delinquency (90 days or more delinquent)'''
{| class="wikitable"
|'''CATEGORY''' 1
|'''Q3 2022'''
|'''Q3 2023'''
|-
|Mortgage Debt
|0.50%
|0.72%
|-
|Home Equity Line Of Credit
|0.51%
|0.41%
|-
|Student Loan Debt
|1.04%
|0.77%
|-
|Auto Loan Debt
|2.02%
|2.53%
|-
|Credit Card Debt
|3.69%
|5.78%
|-
|Other
|3.55%
|4.96%
|-
|'''ALL'''
|'''0.94%'''
|'''1.28%'''
|}

=== Q2 2023 ===
The report shows a slight uptick in total household debt in the second quarter of 2023, increasing by $16 billion (0.1%) to $17.06 trillion.

* Credit card accounts expanded by 5.48 million to 578.35 million. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased by $9 billion and now stand at $4.6 trillion.
* The share of debt newly transitioning into delinquency increased for credit cards and auto loans, with increases in transition rates of 0.7 and 0.4 percentage points respectively.
* About 39,000 individuals had new foreclosure notations on their credit reports, a very small increase from the first quarter. New foreclosures have stayed very low since even since the CARES Act moratorium was lifted.<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2023/20230808</ref>

{| class="wikitable"
|'''CATEGORY'''
|'''QUARTERLY CHANGE * (BILLIONS $)'''
|'''ANNUAL CHANGE**(BILLIONS $)'''
|'''TOTAL AS OF Q2 2023 (TRILLIONS $)'''
|-
|Mortgage Debt
|(-) $30
|(+) $627
|$12.01
|-
|Home Equity Line Of Credit
|(+) $1
|(+) $21
|$0.34
|-
|Student Debt
|(-) $35
|(-) $20
|$1.57
|-
|Auto Debt
|(+) $20
|(+) $80
|$1.58
|-
|Credit Card Debt
|(+) $45
|(+) $144
|$1.03
|-
|Other
|(+) $15
|(+) $57
|$0.53
|-
|'''Total Debt'''
|'''(+) $16'''
|'''(+) $909'''
|'''$17.06'''
|}
'''Flow into Serious Delinquency (90 days or more delinquent)'''
{| class="wikitable"
|'''CATEGORY''' 1
|'''Q2 2022'''
|'''Q2 2023'''
|-
|Mortgage Debt
|0.44%
|0.63%
|-
|Home Equity Line Of Credit
|0.32%
|0.44%
|-
|Student Loan Debt
|0.98%
|0.85%
|-
|Auto Loan Debt
|1.81%
|2.41%
|-
|Credit Card Debt
|3.35%
|5.08%
|-
|Other
|3.21%
|4.65%
|-
|'''ALL'''
|'''0.84%'''
|'''1.16%'''
|}

== Volume by Riskcore ==

=== Morgage ===
[[File:0df3fbf3f00eea94c0d3c3b8a818d008b450c7c1.png|alt=|center|thumb|806x806px|https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.html]]'''Share by Credit Score'''[[File:95759aa399971449b38ea24ea8b85cbb7cdb5448.png|center|thumb|794x794px|https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.html]]
{| class="wikitable"
!Date

Billions of $<ref name=":0">https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.html</ref>
!<620
!620-659
!660-719
!720-759
!760+
!TOTAL
|-
|24:Q3
|15.48
|18.39
|51.87
|67.67
|294.90
|448.31
|-
|24:Q2
|14.54
|16.11
|47.75
|59.71
|236
|374.11
|-
|24:Q1
|12.61
|14.3
|46.26
|45.68
|283.8
|402.65
|-
|23:Q4
|14.87
|14.05
|53.19
|63.76
|247.9
|393.77
|-
|23:Q3
|14.81
|14.51
|60.7
|55.65
|240.7
|386.37
|-
|23:Q2
|13.52
|18.42
|57.83
|60.99
|242.6
|393.36
|-
|23:Q1
|11.55
|15.66
|42.63
|57.29
|196.4
|323.53
|-
|22:Q4
|14.86
|25.72
|68.55
|79.94
|308.5
|497.57
|-
|22:Q3
|19.72
|28.03
|88.25
|103.3
|393.2
|632.5
|-
|22:Q2
|21.92
|28.21
|94.69
|118.5
|494.8
|758.12
|-
|22:Q1
|19.99
|27.36
|112.3
|117.4
|581.9
|858.95
|-
|21:Q4
|22.11
|36.4
|132.3
|150.3
|694
|1035.11
|-
|21:Q3
|23.31
|33.54
|130.4
|158.4
|769
|1114.65
|-
|21:Q2
|19.19
|34.71
|127.8
|167.8
|868.3
|1217.8
|-
|21:Q1
|15.74
|29.15
|110.7
|151.7
|831.1
|1138.39
|-
|20:Q4
|20.68
|32.38
|124.9
|158.6
|838
|1174.56
|-
|19:Q4
|26.88
|28.51
|98.38
|119.6
|478.6
|751.97
|-
|18:Q4
|15.2
|23.88
|68.17
|61.93
|232.3
|401.48
|-
|17:Q4
|20.37
|23.68
|74.87
|76.28
|256.3
|451.5
|-
|16:Q4
|22.82
|27.97
|100.6
|105.2
|360.2
|616.79
|-
|15:Q4
|21.4
|24
|77.4
|70.8
|243.3
|436.9
|-
|14:Q4
|14.92
|22.03
|62.41
|100.64
|154.22
|354.2
|-
|13:Q4
|16.22
|18.85
|65.7
|134.57
|216.01
|451.4
|-
|12:Q4
|16.43
|23.26
|71.72
|155.58
|285.77
|552.8
|-
|11:Q4
|15.7
|14.64
|48.37
|106.39
|219.03
|404.1
|-
|10:Q4
|18.87
|18.34
|47.6
|122.86
|255.34
|463
|-
|09:Q4
|22.01
|22
|57.67
|113.64
|177.34
|392.7
|-
|08:Q4
|29.66
|24.8
|52.44
|82.77
|112.29
|302
|-
|07:Q4
|53.46
|44.72
|105.11
|148.91
|162.35
|514.6
|-
|06:Q4
|92.82
|70.42
|137.7
|191.52
|149.43
|641.9
|-
|05:Q4
|87.04
|77.7
|184.83
|238.86
|211.56
|800
|-
|04:Q4
|88.88
|67.39
|158.89
|209.93
|146.26
|671.4
|-
|03:Q4
|90.06
|86.37
|212.36
|349.56
|289.7
|1028.1
|}

=== Autos ===
[[File:2d791a3561d3bded48e75da9813a9f4b304426cb.png|center|thumb|749x749px|https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.html]]
'''Share by Credit Score'''
[[File:B30afa0fd2a3267ba7c1ed0b779518259e774ae2.png|center|thumb|746x746px|https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.html]]

{| class="wikitable"
!Date

Billions of $<ref name=":0" />
!<620
!620-659
!660-719
!720-759
!760+
!TOTAL
|-
|24:Q3
|31.2
|18.2
|37.3
|28.6
|69.0
|184.2
|-
|24:Q2
|30
|18.7
|36.6
|28.3
|65.6
|179.1
|-
|24:Q1
|26.2
|15.8
|34.3
|25.6
|63.6
|165.5
|-
|23:Q4
|25.5
|17
|34.6
|25.3
|62.5
|164.9
|-
|23:Q3
|28
|18.8
|38.8
|27.6
|66.1
|179.3
|-
|23:Q2
|29.8
|18.5
|38.4
|28.4
|63.8
|179
|-
|23:Q1
|23.4
|16.3
|34.9
|27.5
|59.5
|161.7
|-
|22:Q4
|28.5
|20.8
|44.3
|30.2
|62.4
|186.2
|-
|22:Q3
|30.3
|21.3
|40.8
|30.6
|62.4
|185.4
|-
|22:Q2
|35.4
|23.7
|44.7
|29.8
|65.3
|198.8
|-
|22:Q1
|27.7
|22
|40.3
|27
|59.5
|176.6
|-
|21:Q4
|30.9
|22.3
|40.7
|27.9
|58.8
|180.5
|-
|21:Q3
|33.8
|23.7
|45.6
|32.5
|63.2
|198.8
|-
|21:Q2
|35.2
|23.3
|45.1
|31.1
|67.2
|201.9
|-
|21:Q1
|23.3
|17.2
|32.8
|23.5
|55.9
|152.7
|-
|20:Q4
|28.1
|19.7
|31.4
|24.4
|58.1
|161.6
|-
|19:Q4
|31
|16.7
|33.5
|22.4
|55
|158.6
|-
|18:Q4
|27.9
|16.7
|31.8
|20.3
|47.7
|144.3
|-
|17:Q4
|26
|16.7
|30.2
|20.2
|44.1
|137.2
|-
|16:Q4
|27.2
|17.8
|31.8
|19.5
|45.7
|142
|-
|15:Q4
|28.7
|17.1
|28.9
|18.5
|38.3
|131.5
|-
|14:Q4
|28.6
|16.5
|26.8
|17.4
|36.1
|125.5
|-
|13:Q4
|25.2
|15.6
|22.5
|15.1
|31.7
|110.1
|-
|12:Q4
|23.5
|14.9
|23.5
|16.4
|31.6
|110
|-
|11:Q4
|17.7
|11.2
|18.7
|13.6
|27
|88.2
|-
|10:Q4
|16.8
|9
|17
|12.7
|26.4
|82
|-
|09:Q4
|11.4
|7.4
|13.2
|11.3
|23.2
|66.5
|-
|08:Q4
|16.9
|8.6
|15.5
|11.3
|20.5
|72.8
|-
|07:Q4
|28.7
|11.8
|19.3
|14.2
|24.9
|98.9
|-
|06:Q4
|30.8
|12.9
|23
|15
|22.8
|104.5
|-
|05:Q4
|31.4
|18.1
|25
|13.7
|20.4
|108.6
|-
|04:Q4
|30
|13.3
|26.4
|16.6
|23.4
|109.8
|}

== Monthly Developments Credit ==
Data:

'''Consumer Credit % of GDP'''
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-12 132203.png|center|thumb|804x804px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSL]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSL</ref>
! colspan="5" |Total Consumer Credit
Owned and Securitized
|-
!Billions of Dollars SA
!M/M
!Y/Y
!FLOW M/M
!FLOW Y/Y
|-
|2024-03-01
|5,058.92
|0.12
|2.34
|6.27
|115.59
|-
|2024-02-01
|5,052.64
|0.30
|2.57
|15.02
|126.66
|-
|2024-01-01
|5,037.62
|0.37
|2.50
|18.35
|123.00
|-
|2023-12-01
|5,019.28
|0.06
|2.56
|3.21
|125.24
|-
|2023-11-01
|5,016.07
|0.36
|2.91
|17.81
|141.90
|-
|2023-10-01
|4,998.26
|0.18
|3.09
|8.96
|149.62
|-
|2023-09-01
|4,989.30
|0.17
|3.61
|8.25
|174.00
|-
|2023-08-01
|4,981.04
| -0.33
|4.01
| -16.73
|191.96
|-
|2023-07-01
|4,997.77
|0.24
|4.93
|12.17
|235.00
|-
|2023-06-01
|4,985.60
|0.48
|5.25
|23.77
|248.59
|-
|2023-05-01
|4,961.83
|0.11
|5.69
| 5.24
|266.98
|-
|2023-04-01
|4,956.59
|0.27
|6.29
|13.27
|293.37
|-
|2023-03-01
|4,943.33
|0.35
|6.67
|17.34
|308.98
|-
|2023-02-01
|4,925.99
|0.23
|7.18
|11.36
|330.09
|-
|2023-01-01
|4,914.63
|0.42
|7.68
|20.59
|350.67
|-
|2022-12-01
|4,894.03
|0.41
|7.60
|19.87
|345.50
|-
|2022-11-01
|4,874.17
|0.53
|7.75
|25.53
|350.68
|-
|2022-10-01
|4,848.64
|0.69
|7.75
|33.35
|348.68
|-
|2022-09-01
|4,815.29
|0.55
|7.39
|26.21
|331.42
|-
|2022-08-01
|4,789.08
|0.55
|7.36
|26.31
|328.11
|-
|2022-07-01
|4,762.77
|0.54
|7.17
|25.76
|318.55
|-
|2022-06-01
|4,737.01
|0.90
|7.01
|42.17
|310.45
|-
|2022-05-01
|4,694.85
|0.68
|9.90
|31.62
|422.84
|-
|2022-04-01
|4,663.23
|0.62
|9.93
|28.88
|421.42
|-
|2022-03-01
|4,634.35
|0.84
|9.69
|38.46
|409.26
|-
|2022-02-01
|4,595.89
|0.70
|9.08
|31.94
|382.67
|-
|2022-01-01
|4,563.96
|0.34
|8.78
|15.43
|368.49
|-
|2021-12-01
|4,548.53
|0.55
|8.69
|25.04
|363.68
|-
|2021-11-01
|4,523.49
|0.52
|8.47
|23.53
|353.15
|-
|2021-10-01
|4,499.96
|0.36
|7.93
|16.08
|330.53
|-
|2021-09-01
|4,478
|0.54
|7.60
|24.23
|
|-
|2021-08-01
|4,454
|0.38
|7.43
|17.00
|
|-
|2021-07-01
|4,437
|0.41
|6.88
|18.25
|
|-
|2021-06-01
|4,418
|3.45
|6.88
|147.46
|
|-
|2021-05-01
|4,271
|0.65
|3.55
|27.63
|
|-
|2021-04-01
|4,243
|0.39
|2.40
|16.46
|
|-
|2021-03-01
|4,227
|0.29
|0.47
|12.06
|
|-
|2021-02-01
|4,215
|0.42
| -0.17
|17.78
|
|-
|2021-01-01
|4,197
|0.29
| -0.26
|12.13
|
|-
|2020-12-01
|4,185
|0.36
| -0.18
|15.05
|
|-
|2020-11-01
|4,170
|0.08
|0.15
|3.51
|
|-
|2020-10-01
|4,166
|0.11
|0.12
|4.66
|
|-
|2020-09-01
|4,162
|0.39
|0.42
|16.20
|
|-
|2020-08-01
|4,145
| -0.13
|0.35
| -5.53
|
|-
|2020-07-01
|4,151
|0.41
|0.83
|17.07
|
|-
|2020-06-01
|4,134
|0.23
|1.02
|9.51
|
|-
|2020-05-01
|4,124
| -0.47
|1.00
| -19.27
|
|-
|2020-04-01
|4,144
| -1.51
|1.80
| -63.55
|
|-
|2020-03-01
|4,207
| -0.34
|3.80
| -14.53
|
|-
|2020-02-01
|4,222
|0.32
|4.48
|13.64
|
|-
|2020-01-01
|4,208
|0.38
|4.49
|15.91
|
|-
|2019-12-01
|4,192
|0.69
|4.62
|28.82
|
|}

=== <big>Revolving Credit</big> ===

'''Resolving Consumer Credit Annual Change'''
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-14 135838.png|center|thumb|824x824px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REVOLSL]]

'''Consumer Credit % of GDP'''
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-12 134927.png|center|thumb|801x801px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REVOLSL]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REVOLSL</ref>
!Revolving Consumer Credit
Owned and Securitized
!Revolving Consumer Credit
Owned and Securitized
!Revolving Consumer Credit
Owned and Securitized
!Revolving Consumer Credit
Owned and Securitized
!Revolving Consumer Credit
Owned and Securitized
|-
!Billions of Dollars SA
!M/M
!Y/Y
!FLOW M/M
!FLOW Y/Y
|-
!Average
!479.28
!1.09
!14.37
!1.91
!22.37
|-
|2024-03-01
|1,337.77
|0.01
|7.83
|0.15
|97.15
|-
|2024-02-01
|1,337.61
|0.81
|8.87
|10.73
|108.99
|-
|2024-01-01
|1,326.89
|0.61
|8.45
|8.07
|103.43
|-
|2023-12-01
|1,318.82
|0.32
|8.76
|4.21
|106.22
|-
|2023-11-01
|1,314.61
|1.11
|9.50
|14.47
|114.10
|-
|2023-10-01
|1,300.14
|0.43
|9.39
|5.60
|111.61
|-
|2023-09-01
|1,294.54
|0.45
|10.31
|5.76
|121.00
|-
|2023-08-01
|1,288.77
|1.02
|10.77
|13.05
|125.33
|-
|2023-07-01
|1,275.72
|0.74
|10.81
|9.40
|124.47
|-
|2023-06-01
|1,266.32
| 0.48
|11.06
| 6.04
|126.16
|-
|2023-05-01
|1,260.28
|0.64
|12.65
|8.05
|141.51
|-
|2023-04-01
|1,252.23
|0.94
|12.87
|11.61
|142.76
|-
|2023-03-01
|1,240.62
|0.98
|13.09
|11.99
|143.55
|-
|2023-02-01
|1,228.62
|0.42
|14.31
|5.17
|153.82
|-
|2023-01-01
|1,223.45
|0.90
|15.14
|10.86
|160.92
|-
|2022-12-01
|1,212.60
|1.01
|15.10
|12.09
|159.07
|-
|2022-11-01
|1,200.51
|1.01
|14.98
|11.98
|156.39
|-
|2022-10-01
|1,188.53
|1.28
|15.08
|15.00
|155.72
|-
|2022-09-01
|1,173.53
|0.87
|14.52
|10.09
|148.76
|-
|2022-08-01
|1,163.44
|1.06
|14.72
|12.19
|149.28
|-
|2022-07-01
|1,151.25
|0.97
|13.85
|11.08
|140.06
|-
|2022-06-01
|1,140.17
|1.91
|13.31
|21.39
|133.91
|-
|2022-05-01
|1,118.77
|0.84
|14.41
|9.31
|140.89
|-
|2022-04-01
|1,109.47
|1.13
|14.33
|12.41
|139.09
|-
|2022-03-01
|1,097.06
|2.07
|12.90
|22.25
|125.36
|-
|2022-02-01
|1,074.81
|1.16
|10.26
|12.27
|100.00
|-
|2022-01-01
|1,062.54
|0.86
|9.39
|9.01
|91.23
|-
|2021-12-01
|1,053.52
|0.90
|8.10
|9.40
|78.93
|-
|2021-11-01
|1,044.12
|1.09
|7.39
|11.31
|71.82
|-
|2021-10-01
|1,032.82
|0.79
|5.35
|8.04
|52.41
|-
|2021-09-01
|1,023
|1.04
|4.09
|10.55
|40.17
|-
|2021-08-01
|1,012
|0.45
|3.32
|4.56
|32.51
|-
|2021-07-01
|1,008
|0.58
|1.87
|5.79
|18.48
|-
|2021-06-01
|1,002
|2.29
|1.11
|22.42
|11.04
|-
|2021-05-01
|979
|0.81
| -2.09
|7.83
| -20.86
|-
|2021-04-01
|972
| -0.05
| -5.24
| -0.44
| -53.77
|-
|2021-03-01
|972
| -0.25
| -10.17
| -2.42
| -110.08
|-
|2021-02-01
|974
|0.29
| -11.45
|2.82
| -126.04
|-
|2021-01-01
|972
| -0.30
| -11.33
| -2.97
| -124.17
|-
|2020-12-01
|975
|0.28
| -10.75
|2.73
| -117.39
|-
|2020-11-01
|972
| -0.68
| -9.74
| -6.68
| -104.84
|-
|2020-10-01
|979
| -0.41
| -9.92
| -4.03
| -107.81
|-
|2020-09-01
|983
|0.30
| -9.28
|2.90
| -100.53
|-
|2020-08-01
|980
| -0.96
| -9.51
| -9.48
| -102.97
|-
|2020-07-01
|989
| -0.17
| -8.52
| -1.64
| -92.16
|-
|2020-06-01
|991
| -0.95
| -7.40
| -9.48
| -79.22
|-
|2020-05-01
|1,000
| -2.45
| -6.87
| -25.09
| -73.78
|-
|2020-04-01
|1,025
| -5.24
| -4.27
| -56.75
| -45.68
|-
|2020-03-01
|1,082
| -1.67
|1.70
| -18.38
|18.14
|-
|2020-02-01
|1,100
|0.43
|3.49
|4.69
|37.16
|-
|2020-01-01
|1,096
|0.35
|3.31
|3.81
|35.12
|-
|2019-12-01
|1,092
|1.42
|3.62
|15.29
|38.14
|}

=== <big>Non Revolving Credit</big> ===
'''Non Revolving Consumer Credit Annual Change'''
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-14 141051.png|center|thumb|848x848px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NONREVSL]]

'''Non revolving Consumer Credit % of GDP'''
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-14 141432.png|center|thumb|841x841px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NONREVSL]]

{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NONREVSL</ref>
!Nonrevolving Consumer
Credit Owned and Securitized
!Nonrevolving Consumer
Credit Owned and Securitized
!Nonrevolving Consumer
Credit Owned and Securitized
!Nonrevolving Consumer
Credit Owned and Securitized
!Nonrevolving Consumer
Credit Owned and Securitized
|-
!Billions of Dollars SA
!M/M
!Y/Y
!FLOW M/M
!FLOW Y/Y
|-
|2024-03-01
|3,721.15
|0.16
|0.50
|6.12
|18.44
|-
|2024-02-01
|3,715.03
|0.12
|0.48
|4.29
|17.67
|-
|2024-01-01
|3,710.74
|0.28
|0.53
|10.28
|19.56
|-
|2023-12-01
|3,700.46
| -0.03
|0.52
| -1.00
|19.02
|-
|2023-11-01
|3,701.46
|0.09
|0.76
|3.34
|27.80
|-
|2023-10-01
|3,698.11
|0.09
|1.04
|3.35
|38.01
|-
|2023-09-01
|3,694.76
|0.07
|1.46
|2.49
|53.00
|-
|2023-08-01
|3,692.27
| -0.80
|1.84
| -29.78
|66.63
|-
|2023-07-01
|3,722.05
|0.07
|3.06
|2.77
|110.53
|-
|2023-06-01
|3,719.28
|0.48
|3.40
|17.73
|122.43
|-
|2023-05-01
|3,701.55
| -0.08
|3.51
| -2.82
|125.48
|-
|2023-04-01
|3,704.37
|0.04
|4.24
|1.65
|150.61
|-
|2023-03-01
|3,702.71
|0.14
|4.68
|5.35
|165.42
|-
|2023-02-01
|3,697.36
|0.17
|5.01
|6.19
|176.28
|-
|2023-01-01
|3,691.17
|0.26
|5.42
|9.73
|189.75
|-
|2022-12-01
|3,681.44
|0.21
|5.33
|7.78
|186.43
|-
|2022-11-01
|3,673.66
|0.37
|5.58
|13.55
|194.29
|-
|2022-10-01
|3,660.11
|0.50
|5.57
|18.35
|192.96
|-
|2022-09-01
|3,641.76
|0.44
|5.28
|16.12
|182.66
|-
|2022-08-01
|3,625.64
|0.39
|5.19
|14.11
|178.83
|-
|2022-07-01
|3,611.52
|0.41
|5.20
|14.68
|178.49
|-
|2022-06-01
|3,596.85
|0.58
|5.16
|20.77
|176.53
|-
|2022-05-01
|3,576.07
|0.63
|8.56
|22.31
|281.95
|-
|2022-04-01
|3,553.76
|0.47
|8.63
|16.47
|282.33
|-
|2022-03-01
|3,537.29
|0.46
|8.73
|16.20
|283.90
|-
|2022-02-01
|3,521.09
|0.56
|8.73
|19.67
|282.67
|-
|2022-01-01
|3,501.42
|0.18
|8.60
|6.41
|277.26
|-
|2021-12-01
|3,495.01
|0.45
|8.87
|15.64
|284.75
|-
|2021-11-01
|3,479.37
|0.35
|8.80
|12.22
|281.33
|-
|2021-10-01
|3,465
|0.29
|8.70
|9.98
|277.35
|-
|2021-09-01
|3,455
|0.40
|8.68
|13.68
|276.06
|-
|2021-08-01
|3,441
|0.36
|8.71
|12.44
|275.68
|-
|2021-07-01
|3,429
|0.36
|8.45
|12.45
|267.19
|-
|2021-06-01
|3,417
|3.80
|8.70
|125.05
|273.45
|-
|2021-05-01
|3,291
|0.61
|5.36
|19.80
|167.39
|-
|2021-04-01
|3,272
|0.52
|4.92
|16.90
|153.41
|-
|2021-03-01
|3,255
|0.45
|4.15
|14.48
|129.70
|-
|2021-02-01
|3,240
|0.46
|3.81
|14.96
|119.07
|-
|2021-01-01
|3,225
|0.47
|3.63
|15.10
|113.06
|-
|2020-12-01
|3,210
|0.39
|3.55
|12.31
|110.06
|-
|2020-11-01
|3,198
|0.32
|3.60
|10.19
|111.27
|-
|2020-10-01
|3,188
|0.27
|3.67
|8.69
|112.71
|-
|2020-09-01
|3,179
|0.42
|3.86
|13.30
|118.08
|-
|2020-08-01
|3,166
|0.12
|3.85
|3.95
|117.43
|-
|2020-07-01
|3,162
|0.60
|4.17
|18.71
|126.50
|-
|2020-06-01
|3,143
|0.61
|4.00
|18.99
|120.83
|-
|2020-05-01
|3,124
|0.19
|3.81
|5.82
|114.53
|-
|2020-04-01
|3,118
| -0.22
|3.96
| -6.81
|118.84
|-
|2020-03-01
|3,125
|0.12
|4.55
|3.85
|136.03
|-
|2020-02-01
|3,121
|0.29
|4.83
|8.95
|143.77
|-
|2020-01-01
|3,112
|0.39
|4.91
|12.10
|145.73
|-
|2019-12-01
|3,100
|0.44
|4.98
|13.53
|147.01
|}

== Deliquencies ==
=== Percent Balance by Delinquency Status ===
{| class="wikitable"
!Date<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html</ref>
!Current
!30 days late
!60 days late
!90 days late
!120+ days late
!Severely Derogatory
!Total
|-
|24:Q3
|96.5
|1.1
|0.5
|0.2
|0.4
|1.3
|3.5
|-
|24:Q2
|96.8
|1
|0.4
|0.2
|0.4
|1.3
|3.2
|-
|24:Q1
|96.8
|1
|0.4
|0.2
|0.4
|1.3
|3.3
|-
|23:Q4
|96.9
|1
|0.4
|0.2
|0.4
|1.1
|3.1
|-
|23:Q3
|97
|1
|0.4
|0.2
|0.3
|1.1
|3
|-
|23:Q2
|97.4
|0.8
|0.3
|0.1
|0.3
|1
|2.6
|-
|23:Q1
|97.4
|0.8
|0.3
|0.1
|0.3
|1
|2.6
|-
|22:Q4
|97.5
|0.8
|0.3
|0.1
|0.3
|1
|2.5
|-
|22:Q3
|97.3
|0.8
|0.3
|0.1
|0.3
|1.2
|2.7
|-
|22:Q2
|97.3
|0.7
|0.2
|0.1
|0.4
|1.3
|2.7
|-
|22:Q1
|97.3
|0.6
|0.2
|0.1
|0.3
|1.5
|2.7
|-
|21:Q4
|97.3
|0.6
|0.2
|0.1
|0.3
|1.5
|2.7
|-
|21:Q3
|97.3
|0.6
|0.2
|0.1
|0.3
|1.6
|2.7
|-
|21:Q2
|97.3
|0.5
|0.1
|0.1
|0.3
|1.7
|2.7
|-
|21:Q1
|97
|0.5
|0.2
|0.1
|0.4
|1.9
|3.1
|-
|20:Q4
|96.8
|0.6
|0.2
|0.1
|0.4
|1.9
|3.2
|-
|20:Q3
|96.6
|0.7
|0.2
|0.1
|0.4
|2
|3.4
|-
|20:Q2
|96.4
|0.6
|0.2
|0.1
|0.5
|2.1
|3.6
|-
|20:Q1
|95.4
|1.1
|0.4
|0.3
|0.8
|2.1
|4.6
|-
|19:Q4
|95.3
|1.1
|0.5
|0.3
|0.8
|2
|4.7
|-
|19:Q3
|95.2
|1.2
|0.5
|0.3
|0.8
|2
|4.8
|-
|19:Q2
|95.6
|1.1
|0.4
|0.3
|0.7
|2
|4.4
|-
|19:Q1
|95.4
|1.1
|0.4
|0.3
|0.8
|2
|4.6
|-
|18:Q4
|95.4
|1.2
|0.4
|0.3
|0.9
|1.9
|4.7
|-
|17:Q4
|95.3
|1.2
|0.5
|0.3
|0.9
|1.9
|4.7
|-
|15:Q4
|94.6
|1.2
|0.5
|0.3
|1.5
|1.9
|5.4
|-
|14:Q4
|94
|1.1
|0.6
|0.3
|1.8
|2.2
|6
|-
|13:Q4
|92.9
|1.4
|0.7
|0.4
|2.3
|2.4
|7.1
|-
|12:Q4
|91.4
|1.6
|0.7
|0.4
|3
|2.8
|8.6
|-
|11:Q4
|90.3
|1.7
|0.8
|0.5
|3.3
|3.3
|9.7
|-
|10:Q4
|89.3
|1.8
|1
|0.6
|3.5
|3.7
|10.7
|-
|09:Q4
|88.1
|2.1
|1.2
|0.9
|3.9
|3.7
|11.9
|-
|08:Q4
|90.2
|2.5
|1.4
|0.8
|2.3
|2.8
|9.8
|-
|07:Q4
|93.3
|2.1
|1
|0.6
|1.2
|1.8
|6.7
|-
|06:Q4
|95.3
|1.8
|0.6
|0.3
|0.7
|1.3
|4.7
|-
|05:Q4
|96.1
|1.4
|0.5
|0.2
|0.6
|1.1
|3.8
|-
|04:Q4
|95.7
|1.5
|0.5
|0.2
|0.7
|1.3
|4.2
|-
|03:Q4
|95.5
|1.6
|0.5
|0.3
|0.7
|1.4
|4.5
|}

=== Percent of Balance Delinquent by Loan Type ===
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html</ref>
! colspan="7" |Balance 90+ Days Delinquent
! colspan="7" |New Delinquent Balances (30 or more days )
! colspan="7" |New Seriously Delinquent (90 or more days)
|-
!MORTGAGE
!HELOC
!AUTO
!CC
!STUDENT LOAN
!OTHER
!'''ALL'''
!AUTO
!CC
!MORTGAGE
!HELOC
!STUDENT LOAN
!OTHER
!Total
!AUTO
!CC
!MORTGAGE
!HELOC
!STUDENT LOAN
!OTHER
!'''ALL'''
|-
|24:Q3
|0.71
|0.43
|4.59
|11.13
|0.49
|8.96
|'''1.97'''
|8.12
|8.79
|3.60
|2.19
|0.92
|7.56
|'''4.13'''
|2.90
|7.10
|1.08
|0.43
|0.77
|5.50
|1.68
|-
|24:Q2
|0.57
|0.36
|4.43
|10.93
|0.65
|8.45
|'''1.83'''
|7.95
|9.05
|3.35
|2.13
|0.92
|7.48
|'''3.95'''
|2.88
|7.18
|0.95
|0.51
|0.77
|5.42
|'''1.59'''
|-
|24:Q1
|0.6
|0.5
|4.41
|10.69
|0.62
|8.51
|'''1.83'''
|7.94
|8.93
|3.24
|2.14
|0.98
|7.55
|'''3.88'''
|2.78
|6.86
|0.92
|0.52
|0.8
|5.43
|'''1.54'''
|-
|23:Q4
|0.57
|0.62
|4.17
|9.74
|0.6
|7.85
|'''1.74'''
|7.69
|8.52
|2.99
|2.01
|0.92
|7.5
|'''3.64'''
|2.66
|6.36
|0.82
|0.45
|0.79
|5.15
|'''1.42'''
|-
|23:Q3
|0.5
|0.74
|3.91
|9.43
|0.67
|7.85
|'''1.62'''
|7.39
|8.01
|2.8
|1.8
|0.92
|7.25
|'''3.41'''
|2.53
|5.78
|0.72
|0.41
|0.77
|4.96
|'''1.28'''
|-
|23:Q2
|0.46
|0.64
|3.82
|8
|0.63
|7.56
|'''1.47'''
|7.28
|7.2
|2.56
|1.48
|1.01
|7.1
|'''3.18'''
|2.41
|5.08
|0.63
|0.44
|0.85
|4.65
|'''1.16'''
|-
|23:Q1
|0.44
|0.78
|3.89
|8.24
|0.67
|7.67
|'''1.46'''
|6.88
|6.51
|2.43
|1.94
|1.06
|6.67
|'''3'''
|2.33
|4.57
|0.59
|0.48
|0.94
|4.35
|'''1.08'''
|-
|22:Q4
|0.43
|0.87
|3.73
|7.67
|0.87
|7.18
|'''1.41'''
|6.64
|5.87
|2.25
|1.95
|1.18
|6.33
|'''2.82'''
|2.22
|4.01
|0.57
|0.51
|1.02
|3.96
|'''1.03'''
|-
|22:Q3
|0.37
|1.07
|3.89
|7.59
|3.92
|6.99
|'''1.64'''
|6.21
|5.24
|2.1
|2.04
|1.17
|5.81
|'''2.65'''
|2.02
|3.69
|0.5
|0.51
|1.04
|3.55
|'''0.94'''
|-
|22:Q2
|0.48
|0.91
|3.86
|7.98
|4.55
|7.01
|'''1.81'''
|5.64
|4.76
|1.9
|2.31
|1.13
|5.2
|'''2.41'''
|1.81
|3.35
|0.44
|0.32
|0.98
|3.21
|'''0.84'''
|-
|22:Q1
|0.47
|0.82
|4
|8.42
|4.7
|7.09
|'''1.83'''
|5.1
|4.27
|1.66
|1.65
|1.05
|4.65
|'''2.12'''
|1.61
|3.04
|0.34
|0.26
|1.05
|2.88
|'''0.71'''
|-
|21:Q4
|0.46
|0.82
|3.98
|8.32
|4.99
|7.02
|'''1.87'''
|4.96
|4.1
|1.57
|1.57
|1.09
|4.33
|'''2.03'''
|1.56
|3.22
|0.29
|0.26
|1.09
|2.9
|'''0.69'''
|-
|21:Q3
|0.46
|1
|4.05
|8.77
|5.33
|7.08
|'''1.94'''
|5
|4.31
|1.39
|1.42
|1.25
|4.39
|'''1.93'''
|1.57
|3.24
|0.27
|0.25
|1.08
|2.84
|'''0.7'''
|-
|21:Q2
|0.47
|1.05
|4.35
|9.28
|5.69
|7.72
|'''2.06'''
|5.08
|4.36
|1.45
|1.14
|1.2
|5.14
|'''1.99'''
|1.61
|3.39
|0.33
|0.35
|1.02
|2.88
|'''0.75'''
|-
|21:Q1
|0.59
|1.18
|4.79
|9.98
|6.16
|7.67
|'''2.29'''
|5.16
|4.55
|1.59
|1.39
|1.18
|5.3
|'''2.13'''
|1.72
|3.78
|0.42
|0.5
|1.02
|3.25
|'''0.86'''
|-
|20:Q4
|0.62
|1.12
|4.77
|9.36
|6.45
|7.46
|'''2.33'''
|5.45
|5.12
|1.98
|1.61
|2.91
|5.86
|'''2.66'''
|1.84
|4.12
|0.65
|0.59
|2.76
|3.65
|'''1.25'''
|-
|20:Q3
|0.7
|1.23
|4.82
|9.74
|6.5
|7.47
|'''2.43'''
|5.79
|5.7
|2.54
|1.73
|4.54
|6.53
|'''3.31'''
|2.09
|4.73
|0.96
|0.69
|4.36
|4.14
|'''1.7'''
|-
|20:Q2
|0.84
|1.25
|5.03
|9.75
|6.97
|7.66
|'''2.61'''
|6.29
|6.2
|3.1
|2.03
|6.63
|6.44
|'''3.99'''
|2.26
|5.05
|1.08
|0.78
|6.48
|4.59
|'''2.05'''
|-
|20:Q1
|1.06
|1.19
|5.05
|9.09
|10.75
|7.23
|'''3.17'''
|6.89
|6.84
|3.48
|2.02
|9.05
|7.11
|'''4.61'''
|2.37
|5.31
|1.17
|0.77
|8.87
|4.74
|'''2.38'''
|-
|19:Q4
|1.07
|0.84
|4.94
|8.36
|11.06
|6.98
|'''3.15'''
|6.91
|6.95
|3.5
|2.11
|9.44
|7.28
|'''4.67'''
|2.36
|5.32
|1.1
|0.85
|9.21
|4.7
|'''2.36'''
|-
|18:Q4
|1.06
|1.16
|4.47
|7.77
|11.42
|6.96
|'''3.1'''
|7.09
|6.65
|3.55
|1.75
|9.08
|7.35
|'''4.65'''
|2.36
|4.99
|1.19
|0.81
|8.94
|4.89
|'''2.36'''
|-
|17:Q4
|1.27
|1.67
|4.05
|7.55
|10.96
|6.78
|'''3.12'''
|7.21
|6.33
|3.4
|2.05
|9.61
|6.92
|'''4.57'''
|2.33
|4.64
|1.14
|0.9
|9.29
|4.59
|'''2.32'''
|-
|16:Q4
|1.57
|2.13
|3.75
|7.14
|11.17
|7
|'''3.3'''
|7.46
|5.52
|3.38
|2.73
|9.8
|6.71
|'''4.55'''
|2.25
|3.71
|1.29
|1.13
|9.42
|4.4
|'''2.36'''
|-
|15:Q4
|2.18
|2.24
|3.37
|7.65
|11.52
|7.02
|'''3.69'''
|7.13
|5.27
|3.85
|2.58
|10.46
|6.46
|'''4.84'''
|2.09
|3.72
|1.55
|0.97
|10.04
|4.03
|'''2.54'''
|-
|14:Q4
|3.07
|3.16
|3.47
|7.31
|11.32
|7.9
|'''4.3'''
|7.15
|5.35
|4.2
|3.18
|11.12
|6.81
|'''5.14'''
|1.88
|3.92
|1.81
|1.51
|10.13
|3.82
|'''2.71'''
|-
|13:Q4
|3.93
|3.19
|3.35
|9.45
|11.51
|8.94
|'''5.03'''
|6.85
|5.63
|5.25
|3.18
|11.33
|6.43
|'''5.83'''
|1.58
|3.91
|2.54
|1.51
|10.21
|3.93
|'''3.17'''
|-
|12:Q4
|5.58
|3.48
|4.03
|10.57
|11.73
|9.62
|'''6.31'''
|6.38
|6.36
|6.3
|3.48
|11.39
|6.87
|'''6.57'''
|1.52
|4.51
|3.48
|1.87
|10.28
|3.89
|'''3.86'''
|-
|11:Q4
|6.89
|4.71
|4.82
|11.48
|8.45
|10.51
|'''7.14'''
|6.77
|7.64
|8.02
|4.39
|10.64
|7.9
|'''7.89'''
|1.69
|5.87
|4.58
|3.06
|9.31
|4.64
|'''4.72'''
|-
|10:Q4
|7.61
|4.29
|5.27
|13.27
|9.12
|10.83
|'''7.83'''
|8.2
|10.74
|9.09
|5.06
|10.45
|10.11
|'''9.01'''
|2.31
|9.21
|5.84
|3.12
|8.46
|6.51
|'''5.84'''
|-
|09:Q4
|8.75
|4.37
|4.92
|12.7
|8.66
|9.22
|'''8.54'''
|10.46
|13.78
|11.66
|6.6
|10.18
|12.02
|'''11.35'''
|3.24
|10.96
|8.3
|4.54
|7.93
|7.72
|'''7.9'''
|-
|08:Q4
|5.59
|3.33
|3.94
|10.18
|7.82
|8.58
|'''5.89'''
|10.47
|11.84
|11.21
|7.32
|9.38
|12.32
|'''10.93'''
|3.29
|8.7
|6.65
|4.15
|7.38
|7.06
|'''6.47'''
|-
|07:Q4
|2.93
|1.32
|3.05
|9.48
|7.51
|6.2
|'''3.62'''
|9.41
|9.7
|7.99
|4.3
|9.82
|8.87
|'''8.1'''
|2.44
|6.75
|3.68
|1.82
|7.85
|4.61
|'''3.89'''
|-
|06:Q4
|1.31
|0.61
|2.62
|9.66
|7.14
|5.46
|'''2.33'''
|8.69
|8.76
|5.45
|2.85
|9.75
|7.43
|'''6.01'''
|2.22
|5.83
|1.68
|0.79
|7.88
|3.55
|'''2.25'''
|-
|05:Q4
|0.93
|0.16
|2.09
|8.53
|6.59
|5.94
|'''1.97'''
|7.34
|8.63
|4.68
|1.84
|8.88
|8.26
|'''5.32'''
|1.67
|5.79
|1.27
|0.38
|6.7
|4.21
|'''1.9'''
|-
|04:Q4
|1.08
|0.21
|2.42
|9.18
|6.32
|7.01
|'''2.26'''
|6.98
|9.85
|4.88
|2.08
|7.61
|8.28
|'''5.58'''
|1.78
|7
|1.36
|0.29
|6.09
|4.8
|'''2.11'''
|-
|03:Q4
|1.06
|0.31
|2.16
|9.24
|6.23
|7.47
|'''2.35'''
|7.79
|11.56
|5.27
|2.03
|
|8.8
|'''6.27'''
|2.04
|8.06
|1.44
|0.47
|
|4.88
|'''2.43'''
|}

== SCE CREDIT ACCESS SURVEY ==

=== June 2023 ===

* The application rate for any kind of credit over the past twelve months declined to 40.3 percent from 40.9 percent in February, its lowest reading since October 2020. Application rates declined to 11.9 percent for auto loans and 12.5 percent for credit card limit requests, but increased to 24.8 percent for credit cards, 6.5 percent for mortgages, and 5.3 percent for mortgage refinances<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/credit-access#/experiences-credit-applications12</ref>
* The overall rejection rate for credit applicants increased to 21.8 percent, the highest level since June 2018. The increase was broad-based across age groups and highest among those with credit scores below 680.
* The rejection rate for auto loans increased to 14.2 percent from 9.1 percent in February, a new series high. It increased for credit cards, credit card limit increase requests, mortgages, and mortgage refinance applications to 21.5 percent, 30.7 percent, 13.2 percent, and 20.8 percent, respectively.
* The proportion of respondents reporting that they are likely to apply for one or more types of credit over the next twelve months rose to 26.4 percent from 26.1 percent in February.
* The average reported probability that a loan application will be rejected increased sharply for all loan types. It rose to 30.7 percent for auto loans, 32.8 percent for credit cards, 42.4 percent for credit limit increase requests, 46.1 percent for mortgages, and 29.6 percent for mortgage refinance applications. The readings for auto loans, mortgages, and credit card limit increase requests are all new series highs.

== References ==

Household Debt and Credit: US

2024-11-18T20:38:41Z

MagaNH6:

See also: [[Personal Consumption Expenditure]] | [[Personal Income]]

Forum Discussion: [https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/consumer-debt-and-credit/198/3 Consumer Debt and Credit]

Data: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzvIAz6CBS78vH1moNA-foaZA0HWOb-AG1DfvCUJDio/edit?gid=1473352676#gid=1473352676 Google Sheet] | Tableau

== Balances ==
{| class="wikitable"
!Date

Trillions of $<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.html</ref>
!Mortgage
!HE Revolving
!Auto Loan
!Credit Card
!Student Loan
!Other
!Total
|-
|24:Q3
|12.59
|0.387
|1.644
|1.166
|1.606
|0.546
|17.943
|-
|24:Q2
|12.52
|0.380
|1.626
|1.142
|1.585
|0.544
|17.796
|-
|24:Q1
|12.44
|0.376
|1.616
|1.115
|1.595
|0.543
|17.687
|-
|23:Q4
|12.25
|0.360
|1.607
|1.129
|1.601
|0.554
|17.503
|-
|23:Q3
|12.14
|0.349
|1.595
|1.079
|1.599
|0.529
|17.291
|-
|23:Q2
|12.01
|0.340
|1.582
|1.031
|1.569
|0.527
|17.063
|-
|23:Q1
|12.04
|0.339
|1.562
|0.986
|1.604
|0.512
|17.047
|-
|22:Q4
|11.92
|0.336
|1.552
|0.986
|1.595
|0.507
|16.899
|-
|22:Q3
|11.67
|0.322
|1.524
|0.925
|1.574
|0.491
|16.505
|-
|22:Q2
|11.39
|0.319
|1.502
|0.887
|1.589
|0.470
|16.154
|-
|22:Q1
|11.18
|0.317
|1.469
|0.841
|1.590
|0.445
|15.842
|-
|21:Q4
|10.93
|0.318
|1.458
|0.856
|1.576
|0.438
|15.576
|-
|21:Q3
|10.67
|0.317
|1.443
|0.804
|1.584
|0.423
|15.243
|-
|21:Q2
|10.44
|0.322
|1.415
|0.787
|1.570
|0.421
|14.957
|-
|21:Q1
|10.16
|0.335
|1.382
|0.770
|1.584
|0.413
|14.644
|-
|20:Q4
|10.04
|0.349
|1.374
|0.819
|1.555
|0.419
|14.559
|-
|20:Q3
|9.86
|0.362
|1.36
|0.81
|1.55
|0.42
|14.35
|-
|20:Q2
|9.78
|0.375
|1.34
|0.82
|1.54
|0.42
|14.27
|-
|20:Q1
|9.71
|0.39
|1.35
|0.89
|1.54
|0.43
|14.30
|-
|19:Q4
|9.56
|0.39
|1.33
|0.93
|1.51
|0.43
|14.15
|}
[[File:Household Debt Y Y Growthq32024.png|center|thumb|1319x1319px|<ref>https://public.tableau.com/views/ConumerDebt/HouseholdDebtGrowthTrends?:language=en-US&:sid=&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link</ref>]]

=== Debt to Income and GDP ===
[[File:Debt to Income.png|center|thumb|1196x1196px|[https://public.tableau.com/views/ConumerDebt/Sheet1?:language=en-US&:sid=&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link]]]
[[File:Debt to GDP.png|center|thumb|1205x1205px|[https://public.tableau.com/views/ConumerDebt/DebttoGDP?:language=en-US&:sid=&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link]]]

=== Q2 2024 ===
The report shows total household debt increased by $109 billion (0.6%) in Q2 2024, to $17.80 trillion.<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2024/20240806</ref>

* Mortgage originations continued increasing at about the same pace seen in the previous four quarters and stood at $374 billion
* Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased modestly by $69 billion, representing a 1.4% increase from the previous quarter.
* Limits on HELOC increased by $3 billion, the ninth consecutive quarterly increase.
* Aggregate delinquency rates were unchanged from the previous quarter, with 3.2% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency.

'''Household Debt and Credit Developments as of Q2 2024'''
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Category'''
|'''Quarterly Change * (Billions $)'''
|'''Annual Change** (Billions $)'''
|'''Total As of Q1 2024 (Trillions $)'''
|-
|Mortgage Debt
|(+) $77
|(+) $505
|$12.519
|-
|Home Equity Line of Credit
|(+) $4
|(+) $40
|$0.38
|-
|Student Debt
|(-) $10
|(-) $16
|$1.585
|-
|Auto Debt
|(+) $10
|(+) $44
|$1.626
|-
|Credit Card Debt
|(+) $27
|(+) $111
|$1.142
|-
|Other
|(+) $1
|(+) 17
|$0.544
|-
|Total Debt
|(+) $109
|(+) $733
|$17.80
|}

'''Flow into Serious Delinquency (90 days or more delinquent)'''
{| class="wikitable"
!Category1
!Q2 2023
!Q2 2024
|-
|Mortgage Debt
|0.63%
|0.95%
|-
|Home Equity Line of Credit
|0.44%
|0.51%
|-
|Student Loan Debt
|0.85%
|0.77%
|-
|Auto Loan Debt
|2.41%
|2.88%
|-
|Credit Card Debt
|5.08%
|7.18%
|-
|Other
|4.65%
|5.42%
|-
|ALL
|1.16%
|1.59%
|}

=== Q1 2024 ===
The report shows total household debt increased by $184 billion (1.1%) in the first quarter of 2024, to $17.69 trillion.<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2024/20240514</ref>

* Mortgage originations continued increasing at the same pace seen in the previous three quarters, and now stand at $403 billion
* Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased modestly by $63 billion, representing a 1.3% increase from the previous quarter.
* Limits on HELOC grew by $30 billion and have grown by 14% over the past two years, after 10 years of observed declines.
* Aggregate delinquency rates increased in Q1 2024, with 3.2% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency at the end of March. Delinquency transition rates increased for all debt types. Annualized, approximately 8.9% of credit card balances and 7.9% of auto loans transitioned into delinquency.

'''Household Debt and Credit Developments as of Q1 2024'''
{| class="wikitable"
!'''CATEGORY'''
!'''QUARTERLY CHANGE * (BILLIONS $)'''
!'''ANNUAL CHANGE** (BILLIONS $)'''
!'''TOTAL AS OF Q1 2024 (TRILLIONS $)'''
|-
|MORTGAGE DEBT
|(+) $190
|(+) $398
|$12.442
|-
|HOME EQUITY LINE OF CREDIT
|(+) $16
|(+) $37
|$0.376
|-
|STUDENT DEBT
|(-) $6
|(-) $9
|$1.595
|-
|AUTO DEBT
|(+) $9
|(+) $54
|$1.616
|-
|CREDIT CARD DEBT
|(-) $14
|(+) $129
|$1.115
|-
|OTHER
|(-) $11
|(+) $31
|$0.543
|-
|'''TOTAL DEBT'''
|'''(+) $184'''
|'''(+) $640'''
|'''$17.69'''
|}

'''Flow into Serious Delinquency (90 days or more delinquent)'''
{| class="wikitable"
!CATEGORY1
!Q1 2023
!Q1 2024
|-
|MORTGAGE DEBT
|0.59%
|0.92%
|-
|HOME EQUITY LINE OF CREDIT
|0.48%
|0.52%
|-
|STUDENT LOAN DEBT
|0.94%
|0.80%
|-
|AUTO LOAN DEBT
|2.33%
|2.78%
|-
|CREDIT CARD DEBT
|4.57%
|6.86%
|-
|OTHER
|4.35%
|5.43%
|-
|ALL
|'''1.08%'''
|'''1.54%'''
|}

=== Q4 2023 ===
The report shows total household debt increased by $212 billion (1.2%) in the fourth quarter of 2023<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2024/20240206</ref>

* Mortgage originations continued at a similar pace as seen in the previous two quarters, and now stand at $394 billion.
* Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased modestly by $74 billion, representing a 1.6% increase from the previous quarter.
* Limits on HELOC grew by $24 billion and have grown by 10% over the past two years, after 10 years of observed declines.

{| class="wikitable"
|'''CATEGORY'''
|'''QUARTERLY CHANGE *'''
'''(BILLIONS $)'''
|'''ANNUAL CHANGE**'''
'''(BILLIONS $)'''
|'''TOTAL AS OF Q4 2023'''
'''(TRILLIONS $)'''
|-
|Mortgage Debt
|(+) $112
|(+) $329
|$12.25
|-
|Home Equity Line Of Credit
|(+) $11
|(+) $24
|$0.36
|-
|Student Debt
|(+) $2
|(+) $6
|$1.601
|-
|Auto Debt
|(+) $12
|(+) $55
|$1.61
|-
|Credit Card Debt
|(+) $50
|(+) $143
|$1.13
|-
|Other
|(+) $25
|(+) $47
|$0.55
|-
|Total Debt
|(+) $212
|(+) $604
|$17.50
|}
'''Flow into Serious Delinquency (90 days or more delinquent)'''
{| class="wikitable"
|'''CATEGORY''' 1
|'''Q4 2022'''
|'''Q4 2023'''
|-
|Mortgage Debt
|0.57%
|0.82%
|-
|Home Equity Line Of Credit
|0.51%
|0.45%
|-
|Student Loan Debt
|1.02%
|0.79%
|-
|Auto Loan Debt
|2.22%
|2.66%
|-
|Credit Card Debt
|4.01%
|6.36%
|-
|Other
|3.96%
|5.15%
|-
|'''ALL'''
|'''1.03%'''
|'''1.42%'''
|}

=== Q3 2023 ===
The Report shows total household debt increased by $228 billion (1.3%) in the third quarter of 2023, to $17.29 trillion.<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2023/20231107</ref>

* Mortgage originations modestly declined to $386 billion in Q3 2023 and are well below the robust quarterly origination volumes observed between 2020 and 2021.
* The volume of newly originated auto loans, which includes leases, slightly increased and now stands at $179.3 billion.
* Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased by $113 billion, a 2.46% increase from the previous quarter.
* Aggregate delinquency rates increased in Q3 2023, with 3% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency at the end of September. Delinquency transition rates increased for most debt types except student loans and home equity lines of credit. The increases in credit card delinquency were the sharpest among borrowers between the ages of 30 and 39.

'''Household Debt and Credit Developments as of Q3 2023'''
{| class="wikitable"
|'''CATEGORY'''
|'''QUARTERLY CHANGE * (BILLIONS $)'''
|'''ANNUAL CHANGE**(BILLIONS $)'''
|'''TOTAL AS OF Q3 2023 (TRILLIONS $)'''
|-
|Mortgage Debt
|(+) $126
|(+) $471
|$12.14
|-
|Home Equity Line Of Credit
|(+) $9
|(+) $27
|$0.349
|-
|Student Debt
|(+) $30
|(+) $25
|$1.599
|-
|Auto Debt
|(+) $13
|(+) $71
|$1.595
|-
|Credit Card Debt
|(+) $48
|(+) $154
|$1.079
|-
|Other
|(+) $2
|(+) $38
|$0.529
|-
|'''Total Debt'''
|'''(+) $228'''
|'''(+) $786'''
|'''$17.291'''
|}

'''Flow into Serious Delinquency (90 days or more delinquent)'''
{| class="wikitable"
|'''CATEGORY''' 1
|'''Q3 2022'''
|'''Q3 2023'''
|-
|Mortgage Debt
|0.50%
|0.72%
|-
|Home Equity Line Of Credit
|0.51%
|0.41%
|-
|Student Loan Debt
|1.04%
|0.77%
|-
|Auto Loan Debt
|2.02%
|2.53%
|-
|Credit Card Debt
|3.69%
|5.78%
|-
|Other
|3.55%
|4.96%
|-
|'''ALL'''
|'''0.94%'''
|'''1.28%'''
|}

=== Q2 2023 ===
The report shows a slight uptick in total household debt in the second quarter of 2023, increasing by $16 billion (0.1%) to $17.06 trillion.

* Credit card accounts expanded by 5.48 million to 578.35 million. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased by $9 billion and now stand at $4.6 trillion.
* The share of debt newly transitioning into delinquency increased for credit cards and auto loans, with increases in transition rates of 0.7 and 0.4 percentage points respectively.
* About 39,000 individuals had new foreclosure notations on their credit reports, a very small increase from the first quarter. New foreclosures have stayed very low since even since the CARES Act moratorium was lifted.<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2023/20230808</ref>

{| class="wikitable"
|'''CATEGORY'''
|'''QUARTERLY CHANGE * (BILLIONS $)'''
|'''ANNUAL CHANGE**(BILLIONS $)'''
|'''TOTAL AS OF Q2 2023 (TRILLIONS $)'''
|-
|Mortgage Debt
|(-) $30
|(+) $627
|$12.01
|-
|Home Equity Line Of Credit
|(+) $1
|(+) $21
|$0.34
|-
|Student Debt
|(-) $35
|(-) $20
|$1.57
|-
|Auto Debt
|(+) $20
|(+) $80
|$1.58
|-
|Credit Card Debt
|(+) $45
|(+) $144
|$1.03
|-
|Other
|(+) $15
|(+) $57
|$0.53
|-
|'''Total Debt'''
|'''(+) $16'''
|'''(+) $909'''
|'''$17.06'''
|}
'''Flow into Serious Delinquency (90 days or more delinquent)'''
{| class="wikitable"
|'''CATEGORY''' 1
|'''Q2 2022'''
|'''Q2 2023'''
|-
|Mortgage Debt
|0.44%
|0.63%
|-
|Home Equity Line Of Credit
|0.32%
|0.44%
|-
|Student Loan Debt
|0.98%
|0.85%
|-
|Auto Loan Debt
|1.81%
|2.41%
|-
|Credit Card Debt
|3.35%
|5.08%
|-
|Other
|3.21%
|4.65%
|-
|'''ALL'''
|'''0.84%'''
|'''1.16%'''
|}

== Volume by Riskcore ==

=== Morgage ===
[[File:0df3fbf3f00eea94c0d3c3b8a818d008b450c7c1.png|alt=|center|thumb|806x806px|https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.html]]'''Share by Credit Score'''[[File:95759aa399971449b38ea24ea8b85cbb7cdb5448.png|center|thumb|794x794px|https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.html]]
{| class="wikitable"
!Date

Billions of $<ref name=":0">https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.html</ref>
!<620
!620-659
!660-719
!720-759
!760+
!TOTAL
|-
|24:Q2
|14.54
|16.11
|47.75
|59.71
|236
|374.11
|-
|24:Q1
|12.61
|14.3
|46.26
|45.68
|283.8
|402.65
|-
|23:Q4
|14.87
|14.05
|53.19
|63.76
|247.9
|393.77
|-
|23:Q3
|14.81
|14.51
|60.7
|55.65
|240.7
|386.37
|-
|23:Q2
|13.52
|18.42
|57.83
|60.99
|242.6
|393.36
|-
|23:Q1
|11.55
|15.66
|42.63
|57.29
|196.4
|323.53
|-
|22:Q4
|14.86
|25.72
|68.55
|79.94
|308.5
|497.57
|-
|22:Q3
|19.72
|28.03
|88.25
|103.3
|393.2
|632.5
|-
|22:Q2
|21.92
|28.21
|94.69
|118.5
|494.8
|758.12
|-
|22:Q1
|19.99
|27.36
|112.3
|117.4
|581.9
|858.95
|-
|21:Q4
|22.11
|36.4
|132.3
|150.3
|694
|1035.11
|-
|21:Q3
|23.31
|33.54
|130.4
|158.4
|769
|1114.65
|-
|21:Q2
|19.19
|34.71
|127.8
|167.8
|868.3
|1217.8
|-
|21:Q1
|15.74
|29.15
|110.7
|151.7
|831.1
|1138.39
|-
|20:Q4
|20.68
|32.38
|124.9
|158.6
|838
|1174.56
|-
|19:Q4
|26.88
|28.51
|98.38
|119.6
|478.6
|751.97
|-
|18:Q4
|15.2
|23.88
|68.17
|61.93
|232.3
|401.48
|-
|17:Q4
|20.37
|23.68
|74.87
|76.28
|256.3
|451.5
|-
|16:Q4
|22.82
|27.97
|100.6
|105.2
|360.2
|616.79
|-
|15:Q4
|21.4
|24
|77.4
|70.8
|243.3
|436.9
|-
|14:Q4
|14.92
|22.03
|62.41
|100.64
|154.22
|354.2
|-
|13:Q4
|16.22
|18.85
|65.7
|134.57
|216.01
|451.4
|-
|12:Q4
|16.43
|23.26
|71.72
|155.58
|285.77
|552.8
|-
|11:Q4
|15.7
|14.64
|48.37
|106.39
|219.03
|404.1
|-
|10:Q4
|18.87
|18.34
|47.6
|122.86
|255.34
|463
|-
|09:Q4
|22.01
|22
|57.67
|113.64
|177.34
|392.7
|-
|08:Q4
|29.66
|24.8
|52.44
|82.77
|112.29
|302
|-
|07:Q4
|53.46
|44.72
|105.11
|148.91
|162.35
|514.6
|-
|06:Q4
|92.82
|70.42
|137.7
|191.52
|149.43
|641.9
|-
|05:Q4
|87.04
|77.7
|184.83
|238.86
|211.56
|800
|-
|04:Q4
|88.88
|67.39
|158.89
|209.93
|146.26
|671.4
|-
|03:Q4
|90.06
|86.37
|212.36
|349.56
|289.7
|1028.1
|}

=== Autos ===
[[File:2d791a3561d3bded48e75da9813a9f4b304426cb.png|center|thumb|749x749px|https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.html]]
'''Share by Credit Score'''
[[File:B30afa0fd2a3267ba7c1ed0b779518259e774ae2.png|center|thumb|746x746px|https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.html]]

{| class="wikitable"
!Date

Billions of $<ref name=":0" />
!<620
!620-659
!660-719
!720-759
!760+
!TOTAL
|-
|24:Q2
|30
|18.7
|36.6
|28.3
|65.6
|179.1
|-
|24:Q1
|26.2
|15.8
|34.3
|25.6
|63.6
|165.5
|-
|23:Q4
|25.5
|17
|34.6
|25.3
|62.5
|164.9
|-
|23:Q3
|28
|18.8
|38.8
|27.6
|66.1
|179.3
|-
|23:Q2
|29.8
|18.5
|38.4
|28.4
|63.8
|179
|-
|23:Q1
|23.4
|16.3
|34.9
|27.5
|59.5
|161.7
|-
|22:Q4
|28.5
|20.8
|44.3
|30.2
|62.4
|186.2
|-
|22:Q3
|30.3
|21.3
|40.8
|30.6
|62.4
|185.4
|-
|22:Q2
|35.4
|23.7
|44.7
|29.8
|65.3
|198.8
|-
|22:Q1
|27.7
|22
|40.3
|27
|59.5
|176.6
|-
|21:Q4
|30.9
|22.3
|40.7
|27.9
|58.8
|180.5
|-
|21:Q3
|33.8
|23.7
|45.6
|32.5
|63.2
|198.8
|-
|21:Q2
|35.2
|23.3
|45.1
|31.1
|67.2
|201.9
|-
|21:Q1
|23.3
|17.2
|32.8
|23.5
|55.9
|152.7
|-
|20:Q4
|28.1
|19.7
|31.4
|24.4
|58.1
|161.6
|-
|19:Q4
|31
|16.7
|33.5
|22.4
|55
|158.6
|-
|18:Q4
|27.9
|16.7
|31.8
|20.3
|47.7
|144.3
|-
|17:Q4
|26
|16.7
|30.2
|20.2
|44.1
|137.2
|-
|16:Q4
|27.2
|17.8
|31.8
|19.5
|45.7
|142
|-
|15:Q4
|28.7
|17.1
|28.9
|18.5
|38.3
|131.5
|-
|14:Q4
|28.6
|16.5
|26.8
|17.4
|36.1
|125.5
|-
|13:Q4
|25.2
|15.6
|22.5
|15.1
|31.7
|110.1
|-
|12:Q4
|23.5
|14.9
|23.5
|16.4
|31.6
|110
|-
|11:Q4
|17.7
|11.2
|18.7
|13.6
|27
|88.2
|-
|10:Q4
|16.8
|9
|17
|12.7
|26.4
|82
|-
|09:Q4
|11.4
|7.4
|13.2
|11.3
|23.2
|66.5
|-
|08:Q4
|16.9
|8.6
|15.5
|11.3
|20.5
|72.8
|-
|07:Q4
|28.7
|11.8
|19.3
|14.2
|24.9
|98.9
|-
|06:Q4
|30.8
|12.9
|23
|15
|22.8
|104.5
|-
|05:Q4
|31.4
|18.1
|25
|13.7
|20.4
|108.6
|-
|04:Q4
|30
|13.3
|26.4
|16.6
|23.4
|109.8
|}

== Monthly Developments Credit ==
Data:

'''Consumer Credit % of GDP'''
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-12 132203.png|center|thumb|804x804px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSL]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSL</ref>
! colspan="5" |Total Consumer Credit
Owned and Securitized
|-
!Billions of Dollars SA
!M/M
!Y/Y
!FLOW M/M
!FLOW Y/Y
|-
|2024-03-01
|5,058.92
|0.12
|2.34
|6.27
|115.59
|-
|2024-02-01
|5,052.64
|0.30
|2.57
|15.02
|126.66
|-
|2024-01-01
|5,037.62
|0.37
|2.50
|18.35
|123.00
|-
|2023-12-01
|5,019.28
|0.06
|2.56
|3.21
|125.24
|-
|2023-11-01
|5,016.07
|0.36
|2.91
|17.81
|141.90
|-
|2023-10-01
|4,998.26
|0.18
|3.09
|8.96
|149.62
|-
|2023-09-01
|4,989.30
|0.17
|3.61
|8.25
|174.00
|-
|2023-08-01
|4,981.04
| -0.33
|4.01
| -16.73
|191.96
|-
|2023-07-01
|4,997.77
|0.24
|4.93
|12.17
|235.00
|-
|2023-06-01
|4,985.60
|0.48
|5.25
|23.77
|248.59
|-
|2023-05-01
|4,961.83
|0.11
|5.69
| 5.24
|266.98
|-
|2023-04-01
|4,956.59
|0.27
|6.29
|13.27
|293.37
|-
|2023-03-01
|4,943.33
|0.35
|6.67
|17.34
|308.98
|-
|2023-02-01
|4,925.99
|0.23
|7.18
|11.36
|330.09
|-
|2023-01-01
|4,914.63
|0.42
|7.68
|20.59
|350.67
|-
|2022-12-01
|4,894.03
|0.41
|7.60
|19.87
|345.50
|-
|2022-11-01
|4,874.17
|0.53
|7.75
|25.53
|350.68
|-
|2022-10-01
|4,848.64
|0.69
|7.75
|33.35
|348.68
|-
|2022-09-01
|4,815.29
|0.55
|7.39
|26.21
|331.42
|-
|2022-08-01
|4,789.08
|0.55
|7.36
|26.31
|328.11
|-
|2022-07-01
|4,762.77
|0.54
|7.17
|25.76
|318.55
|-
|2022-06-01
|4,737.01
|0.90
|7.01
|42.17
|310.45
|-
|2022-05-01
|4,694.85
|0.68
|9.90
|31.62
|422.84
|-
|2022-04-01
|4,663.23
|0.62
|9.93
|28.88
|421.42
|-
|2022-03-01
|4,634.35
|0.84
|9.69
|38.46
|409.26
|-
|2022-02-01
|4,595.89
|0.70
|9.08
|31.94
|382.67
|-
|2022-01-01
|4,563.96
|0.34
|8.78
|15.43
|368.49
|-
|2021-12-01
|4,548.53
|0.55
|8.69
|25.04
|363.68
|-
|2021-11-01
|4,523.49
|0.52
|8.47
|23.53
|353.15
|-
|2021-10-01
|4,499.96
|0.36
|7.93
|16.08
|330.53
|-
|2021-09-01
|4,478
|0.54
|7.60
|24.23
|
|-
|2021-08-01
|4,454
|0.38
|7.43
|17.00
|
|-
|2021-07-01
|4,437
|0.41
|6.88
|18.25
|
|-
|2021-06-01
|4,418
|3.45
|6.88
|147.46
|
|-
|2021-05-01
|4,271
|0.65
|3.55
|27.63
|
|-
|2021-04-01
|4,243
|0.39
|2.40
|16.46
|
|-
|2021-03-01
|4,227
|0.29
|0.47
|12.06
|
|-
|2021-02-01
|4,215
|0.42
| -0.17
|17.78
|
|-
|2021-01-01
|4,197
|0.29
| -0.26
|12.13
|
|-
|2020-12-01
|4,185
|0.36
| -0.18
|15.05
|
|-
|2020-11-01
|4,170
|0.08
|0.15
|3.51
|
|-
|2020-10-01
|4,166
|0.11
|0.12
|4.66
|
|-
|2020-09-01
|4,162
|0.39
|0.42
|16.20
|
|-
|2020-08-01
|4,145
| -0.13
|0.35
| -5.53
|
|-
|2020-07-01
|4,151
|0.41
|0.83
|17.07
|
|-
|2020-06-01
|4,134
|0.23
|1.02
|9.51
|
|-
|2020-05-01
|4,124
| -0.47
|1.00
| -19.27
|
|-
|2020-04-01
|4,144
| -1.51
|1.80
| -63.55
|
|-
|2020-03-01
|4,207
| -0.34
|3.80
| -14.53
|
|-
|2020-02-01
|4,222
|0.32
|4.48
|13.64
|
|-
|2020-01-01
|4,208
|0.38
|4.49
|15.91
|
|-
|2019-12-01
|4,192
|0.69
|4.62
|28.82
|
|}

=== <big>Revolving Credit</big> ===

'''Resolving Consumer Credit Annual Change'''
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-14 135838.png|center|thumb|824x824px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REVOLSL]]

'''Consumer Credit % of GDP'''
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-12 134927.png|center|thumb|801x801px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REVOLSL]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REVOLSL</ref>
!Revolving Consumer Credit
Owned and Securitized
!Revolving Consumer Credit
Owned and Securitized
!Revolving Consumer Credit
Owned and Securitized
!Revolving Consumer Credit
Owned and Securitized
!Revolving Consumer Credit
Owned and Securitized
|-
!Billions of Dollars SA
!M/M
!Y/Y
!FLOW M/M
!FLOW Y/Y
|-
!Average
!479.28
!1.09
!14.37
!1.91
!22.37
|-
|2024-03-01
|1,337.77
|0.01
|7.83
|0.15
|97.15
|-
|2024-02-01
|1,337.61
|0.81
|8.87
|10.73
|108.99
|-
|2024-01-01
|1,326.89
|0.61
|8.45
|8.07
|103.43
|-
|2023-12-01
|1,318.82
|0.32
|8.76
|4.21
|106.22
|-
|2023-11-01
|1,314.61
|1.11
|9.50
|14.47
|114.10
|-
|2023-10-01
|1,300.14
|0.43
|9.39
|5.60
|111.61
|-
|2023-09-01
|1,294.54
|0.45
|10.31
|5.76
|121.00
|-
|2023-08-01
|1,288.77
|1.02
|10.77
|13.05
|125.33
|-
|2023-07-01
|1,275.72
|0.74
|10.81
|9.40
|124.47
|-
|2023-06-01
|1,266.32
| 0.48
|11.06
| 6.04
|126.16
|-
|2023-05-01
|1,260.28
|0.64
|12.65
|8.05
|141.51
|-
|2023-04-01
|1,252.23
|0.94
|12.87
|11.61
|142.76
|-
|2023-03-01
|1,240.62
|0.98
|13.09
|11.99
|143.55
|-
|2023-02-01
|1,228.62
|0.42
|14.31
|5.17
|153.82
|-
|2023-01-01
|1,223.45
|0.90
|15.14
|10.86
|160.92
|-
|2022-12-01
|1,212.60
|1.01
|15.10
|12.09
|159.07
|-
|2022-11-01
|1,200.51
|1.01
|14.98
|11.98
|156.39
|-
|2022-10-01
|1,188.53
|1.28
|15.08
|15.00
|155.72
|-
|2022-09-01
|1,173.53
|0.87
|14.52
|10.09
|148.76
|-
|2022-08-01
|1,163.44
|1.06
|14.72
|12.19
|149.28
|-
|2022-07-01
|1,151.25
|0.97
|13.85
|11.08
|140.06
|-
|2022-06-01
|1,140.17
|1.91
|13.31
|21.39
|133.91
|-
|2022-05-01
|1,118.77
|0.84
|14.41
|9.31
|140.89
|-
|2022-04-01
|1,109.47
|1.13
|14.33
|12.41
|139.09
|-
|2022-03-01
|1,097.06
|2.07
|12.90
|22.25
|125.36
|-
|2022-02-01
|1,074.81
|1.16
|10.26
|12.27
|100.00
|-
|2022-01-01
|1,062.54
|0.86
|9.39
|9.01
|91.23
|-
|2021-12-01
|1,053.52
|0.90
|8.10
|9.40
|78.93
|-
|2021-11-01
|1,044.12
|1.09
|7.39
|11.31
|71.82
|-
|2021-10-01
|1,032.82
|0.79
|5.35
|8.04
|52.41
|-
|2021-09-01
|1,023
|1.04
|4.09
|10.55
|40.17
|-
|2021-08-01
|1,012
|0.45
|3.32
|4.56
|32.51
|-
|2021-07-01
|1,008
|0.58
|1.87
|5.79
|18.48
|-
|2021-06-01
|1,002
|2.29
|1.11
|22.42
|11.04
|-
|2021-05-01
|979
|0.81
| -2.09
|7.83
| -20.86
|-
|2021-04-01
|972
| -0.05
| -5.24
| -0.44
| -53.77
|-
|2021-03-01
|972
| -0.25
| -10.17
| -2.42
| -110.08
|-
|2021-02-01
|974
|0.29
| -11.45
|2.82
| -126.04
|-
|2021-01-01
|972
| -0.30
| -11.33
| -2.97
| -124.17
|-
|2020-12-01
|975
|0.28
| -10.75
|2.73
| -117.39
|-
|2020-11-01
|972
| -0.68
| -9.74
| -6.68
| -104.84
|-
|2020-10-01
|979
| -0.41
| -9.92
| -4.03
| -107.81
|-
|2020-09-01
|983
|0.30
| -9.28
|2.90
| -100.53
|-
|2020-08-01
|980
| -0.96
| -9.51
| -9.48
| -102.97
|-
|2020-07-01
|989
| -0.17
| -8.52
| -1.64
| -92.16
|-
|2020-06-01
|991
| -0.95
| -7.40
| -9.48
| -79.22
|-
|2020-05-01
|1,000
| -2.45
| -6.87
| -25.09
| -73.78
|-
|2020-04-01
|1,025
| -5.24
| -4.27
| -56.75
| -45.68
|-
|2020-03-01
|1,082
| -1.67
|1.70
| -18.38
|18.14
|-
|2020-02-01
|1,100
|0.43
|3.49
|4.69
|37.16
|-
|2020-01-01
|1,096
|0.35
|3.31
|3.81
|35.12
|-
|2019-12-01
|1,092
|1.42
|3.62
|15.29
|38.14
|}

=== <big>Non Revolving Credit</big> ===
'''Non Revolving Consumer Credit Annual Change'''
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-14 141051.png|center|thumb|848x848px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NONREVSL]]

'''Non revolving Consumer Credit % of GDP'''
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-14 141432.png|center|thumb|841x841px|https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NONREVSL]]

{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NONREVSL</ref>
!Nonrevolving Consumer
Credit Owned and Securitized
!Nonrevolving Consumer
Credit Owned and Securitized
!Nonrevolving Consumer
Credit Owned and Securitized
!Nonrevolving Consumer
Credit Owned and Securitized
!Nonrevolving Consumer
Credit Owned and Securitized
|-
!Billions of Dollars SA
!M/M
!Y/Y
!FLOW M/M
!FLOW Y/Y
|-
|2024-03-01
|3,721.15
|0.16
|0.50
|6.12
|18.44
|-
|2024-02-01
|3,715.03
|0.12
|0.48
|4.29
|17.67
|-
|2024-01-01
|3,710.74
|0.28
|0.53
|10.28
|19.56
|-
|2023-12-01
|3,700.46
| -0.03
|0.52
| -1.00
|19.02
|-
|2023-11-01
|3,701.46
|0.09
|0.76
|3.34
|27.80
|-
|2023-10-01
|3,698.11
|0.09
|1.04
|3.35
|38.01
|-
|2023-09-01
|3,694.76
|0.07
|1.46
|2.49
|53.00
|-
|2023-08-01
|3,692.27
| -0.80
|1.84
| -29.78
|66.63
|-
|2023-07-01
|3,722.05
|0.07
|3.06
|2.77
|110.53
|-
|2023-06-01
|3,719.28
|0.48
|3.40
|17.73
|122.43
|-
|2023-05-01
|3,701.55
| -0.08
|3.51
| -2.82
|125.48
|-
|2023-04-01
|3,704.37
|0.04
|4.24
|1.65
|150.61
|-
|2023-03-01
|3,702.71
|0.14
|4.68
|5.35
|165.42
|-
|2023-02-01
|3,697.36
|0.17
|5.01
|6.19
|176.28
|-
|2023-01-01
|3,691.17
|0.26
|5.42
|9.73
|189.75
|-
|2022-12-01
|3,681.44
|0.21
|5.33
|7.78
|186.43
|-
|2022-11-01
|3,673.66
|0.37
|5.58
|13.55
|194.29
|-
|2022-10-01
|3,660.11
|0.50
|5.57
|18.35
|192.96
|-
|2022-09-01
|3,641.76
|0.44
|5.28
|16.12
|182.66
|-
|2022-08-01
|3,625.64
|0.39
|5.19
|14.11
|178.83
|-
|2022-07-01
|3,611.52
|0.41
|5.20
|14.68
|178.49
|-
|2022-06-01
|3,596.85
|0.58
|5.16
|20.77
|176.53
|-
|2022-05-01
|3,576.07
|0.63
|8.56
|22.31
|281.95
|-
|2022-04-01
|3,553.76
|0.47
|8.63
|16.47
|282.33
|-
|2022-03-01
|3,537.29
|0.46
|8.73
|16.20
|283.90
|-
|2022-02-01
|3,521.09
|0.56
|8.73
|19.67
|282.67
|-
|2022-01-01
|3,501.42
|0.18
|8.60
|6.41
|277.26
|-
|2021-12-01
|3,495.01
|0.45
|8.87
|15.64
|284.75
|-
|2021-11-01
|3,479.37
|0.35
|8.80
|12.22
|281.33
|-
|2021-10-01
|3,465
|0.29
|8.70
|9.98
|277.35
|-
|2021-09-01
|3,455
|0.40
|8.68
|13.68
|276.06
|-
|2021-08-01
|3,441
|0.36
|8.71
|12.44
|275.68
|-
|2021-07-01
|3,429
|0.36
|8.45
|12.45
|267.19
|-
|2021-06-01
|3,417
|3.80
|8.70
|125.05
|273.45
|-
|2021-05-01
|3,291
|0.61
|5.36
|19.80
|167.39
|-
|2021-04-01
|3,272
|0.52
|4.92
|16.90
|153.41
|-
|2021-03-01
|3,255
|0.45
|4.15
|14.48
|129.70
|-
|2021-02-01
|3,240
|0.46
|3.81
|14.96
|119.07
|-
|2021-01-01
|3,225
|0.47
|3.63
|15.10
|113.06
|-
|2020-12-01
|3,210
|0.39
|3.55
|12.31
|110.06
|-
|2020-11-01
|3,198
|0.32
|3.60
|10.19
|111.27
|-
|2020-10-01
|3,188
|0.27
|3.67
|8.69
|112.71
|-
|2020-09-01
|3,179
|0.42
|3.86
|13.30
|118.08
|-
|2020-08-01
|3,166
|0.12
|3.85
|3.95
|117.43
|-
|2020-07-01
|3,162
|0.60
|4.17
|18.71
|126.50
|-
|2020-06-01
|3,143
|0.61
|4.00
|18.99
|120.83
|-
|2020-05-01
|3,124
|0.19
|3.81
|5.82
|114.53
|-
|2020-04-01
|3,118
| -0.22
|3.96
| -6.81
|118.84
|-
|2020-03-01
|3,125
|0.12
|4.55
|3.85
|136.03
|-
|2020-02-01
|3,121
|0.29
|4.83
|8.95
|143.77
|-
|2020-01-01
|3,112
|0.39
|4.91
|12.10
|145.73
|-
|2019-12-01
|3,100
|0.44
|4.98
|13.53
|147.01
|}

== Deliquencies ==
=== Percent Balance by Delinquency Status ===
{| class="wikitable"
!Date<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html</ref>
!Current
!30 days late
!60 days late
!90 days late
!120+ days late
!Severely Derogatory
!Total
|-
|24:Q2
|96.8
|1
|0.4
|0.2
|0.4
|1.3
|3.2
|-
|24:Q1
|96.8
|1
|0.4
|0.2
|0.4
|1.3
|3.3
|-
|23:Q4
|96.9
|1
|0.4
|0.2
|0.4
|1.1
|3.1
|-
|23:Q3
|97
|1
|0.4
|0.2
|0.3
|1.1
|3
|-
|23:Q2
|97.4
|0.8
|0.3
|0.1
|0.3
|1
|2.6
|-
|23:Q1
|97.4
|0.8
|0.3
|0.1
|0.3
|1
|2.6
|-
|22:Q4
|97.5
|0.8
|0.3
|0.1
|0.3
|1
|2.5
|-
|22:Q3
|97.3
|0.8
|0.3
|0.1
|0.3
|1.2
|2.7
|-
|22:Q2
|97.3
|0.7
|0.2
|0.1
|0.4
|1.3
|2.7
|-
|22:Q1
|97.3
|0.6
|0.2
|0.1
|0.3
|1.5
|2.7
|-
|21:Q4
|97.3
|0.6
|0.2
|0.1
|0.3
|1.5
|2.7
|-
|21:Q3
|97.3
|0.6
|0.2
|0.1
|0.3
|1.6
|2.7
|-
|21:Q2
|97.3
|0.5
|0.1
|0.1
|0.3
|1.7
|2.7
|-
|21:Q1
|97
|0.5
|0.2
|0.1
|0.4
|1.9
|3.1
|-
|20:Q4
|96.8
|0.6
|0.2
|0.1
|0.4
|1.9
|3.2
|-
|20:Q3
|96.6
|0.7
|0.2
|0.1
|0.4
|2
|3.4
|-
|20:Q2
|96.4
|0.6
|0.2
|0.1
|0.5
|2.1
|3.6
|-
|20:Q1
|95.4
|1.1
|0.4
|0.3
|0.8
|2.1
|4.6
|-
|19:Q4
|95.3
|1.1
|0.5
|0.3
|0.8
|2
|4.7
|-
|19:Q3
|95.2
|1.2
|0.5
|0.3
|0.8
|2
|4.8
|-
|19:Q2
|95.6
|1.1
|0.4
|0.3
|0.7
|2
|4.4
|-
|19:Q1
|95.4
|1.1
|0.4
|0.3
|0.8
|2
|4.6
|-
|18:Q4
|95.4
|1.2
|0.4
|0.3
|0.9
|1.9
|4.7
|-
|17:Q4
|95.3
|1.2
|0.5
|0.3
|0.9
|1.9
|4.7
|-
|15:Q4
|94.6
|1.2
|0.5
|0.3
|1.5
|1.9
|5.4
|-
|14:Q4
|94
|1.1
|0.6
|0.3
|1.8
|2.2
|6
|-
|13:Q4
|92.9
|1.4
|0.7
|0.4
|2.3
|2.4
|7.1
|-
|12:Q4
|91.4
|1.6
|0.7
|0.4
|3
|2.8
|8.6
|-
|11:Q4
|90.3
|1.7
|0.8
|0.5
|3.3
|3.3
|9.7
|-
|10:Q4
|89.3
|1.8
|1
|0.6
|3.5
|3.7
|10.7
|-
|09:Q4
|88.1
|2.1
|1.2
|0.9
|3.9
|3.7
|11.9
|-
|08:Q4
|90.2
|2.5
|1.4
|0.8
|2.3
|2.8
|9.8
|-
|07:Q4
|93.3
|2.1
|1
|0.6
|1.2
|1.8
|6.7
|-
|06:Q4
|95.3
|1.8
|0.6
|0.3
|0.7
|1.3
|4.7
|-
|05:Q4
|96.1
|1.4
|0.5
|0.2
|0.6
|1.1
|3.8
|-
|04:Q4
|95.7
|1.5
|0.5
|0.2
|0.7
|1.3
|4.2
|-
|03:Q4
|95.5
|1.6
|0.5
|0.3
|0.7
|1.4
|4.5
|}

=== Percent of Balance Delinquent by Loan Type ===
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html</ref>
! colspan="7" |Balance 90+ Days Delinquent
! colspan="7" |New Delinquent Balances (30 or more days )
! colspan="7" |New Seriously Delinquent (90 or more days)
|-
!MORTGAGE
!HELOC
!AUTO
!CC
!STUDENT LOAN
!OTHER
!'''ALL'''
!AUTO
!CC
!MORTGAGE
!HELOC
!STUDENT LOAN
!OTHER
!Total
!AUTO
!CC
!MORTGAGE
!HELOC
!STUDENT LOAN
!OTHER
!'''ALL'''
|-
|24:Q2
|0.57
|0.36
|4.43
|10.93
|0.65
|8.45
|'''1.83'''
|7.95
|9.05
|3.35
|2.13
|0.92
|7.48
|'''3.95'''
|2.88
|7.18
|0.95
|0.51
|0.77
|5.42
|'''1.59'''
|-
|24:Q1
|0.6
|0.5
|4.41
|10.69
|0.62
|8.51
|'''1.83'''
|7.94
|8.93
|3.24
|2.14
|0.98
|7.55
|'''3.88'''
|2.78
|6.86
|0.92
|0.52
|0.8
|5.43
|'''1.54'''
|-
|23:Q4
|0.57
|0.62
|4.17
|9.74
|0.6
|7.85
|'''1.74'''
|7.69
|8.52
|2.99
|2.01
|0.92
|7.5
|'''3.64'''
|2.66
|6.36
|0.82
|0.45
|0.79
|5.15
|'''1.42'''
|-
|23:Q3
|0.5
|0.74
|3.91
|9.43
|0.67
|7.85
|'''1.62'''
|7.39
|8.01
|2.8
|1.8
|0.92
|7.25
|'''3.41'''
|2.53
|5.78
|0.72
|0.41
|0.77
|4.96
|'''1.28'''
|-
|23:Q2
|0.46
|0.64
|3.82
|8
|0.63
|7.56
|'''1.47'''
|7.28
|7.2
|2.56
|1.48
|1.01
|7.1
|'''3.18'''
|2.41
|5.08
|0.63
|0.44
|0.85
|4.65
|'''1.16'''
|-
|23:Q1
|0.44
|0.78
|3.89
|8.24
|0.67
|7.67
|'''1.46'''
|6.88
|6.51
|2.43
|1.94
|1.06
|6.67
|'''3'''
|2.33
|4.57
|0.59
|0.48
|0.94
|4.35
|'''1.08'''
|-
|22:Q4
|0.43
|0.87
|3.73
|7.67
|0.87
|7.18
|'''1.41'''
|6.64
|5.87
|2.25
|1.95
|1.18
|6.33
|'''2.82'''
|2.22
|4.01
|0.57
|0.51
|1.02
|3.96
|'''1.03'''
|-
|22:Q3
|0.37
|1.07
|3.89
|7.59
|3.92
|6.99
|'''1.64'''
|6.21
|5.24
|2.1
|2.04
|1.17
|5.81
|'''2.65'''
|2.02
|3.69
|0.5
|0.51
|1.04
|3.55
|'''0.94'''
|-
|22:Q2
|0.48
|0.91
|3.86
|7.98
|4.55
|7.01
|'''1.81'''
|5.64
|4.76
|1.9
|2.31
|1.13
|5.2
|'''2.41'''
|1.81
|3.35
|0.44
|0.32
|0.98
|3.21
|'''0.84'''
|-
|22:Q1
|0.47
|0.82
|4
|8.42
|4.7
|7.09
|'''1.83'''
|5.1
|4.27
|1.66
|1.65
|1.05
|4.65
|'''2.12'''
|1.61
|3.04
|0.34
|0.26
|1.05
|2.88
|'''0.71'''
|-
|21:Q4
|0.46
|0.82
|3.98
|8.32
|4.99
|7.02
|'''1.87'''
|4.96
|4.1
|1.57
|1.57
|1.09
|4.33
|'''2.03'''
|1.56
|3.22
|0.29
|0.26
|1.09
|2.9
|'''0.69'''
|-
|21:Q3
|0.46
|1
|4.05
|8.77
|5.33
|7.08
|'''1.94'''
|5
|4.31
|1.39
|1.42
|1.25
|4.39
|'''1.93'''
|1.57
|3.24
|0.27
|0.25
|1.08
|2.84
|'''0.7'''
|-
|21:Q2
|0.47
|1.05
|4.35
|9.28
|5.69
|7.72
|'''2.06'''
|5.08
|4.36
|1.45
|1.14
|1.2
|5.14
|'''1.99'''
|1.61
|3.39
|0.33
|0.35
|1.02
|2.88
|'''0.75'''
|-
|21:Q1
|0.59
|1.18
|4.79
|9.98
|6.16
|7.67
|'''2.29'''
|5.16
|4.55
|1.59
|1.39
|1.18
|5.3
|'''2.13'''
|1.72
|3.78
|0.42
|0.5
|1.02
|3.25
|'''0.86'''
|-
|20:Q4
|0.62
|1.12
|4.77
|9.36
|6.45
|7.46
|'''2.33'''
|5.45
|5.12
|1.98
|1.61
|2.91
|5.86
|'''2.66'''
|1.84
|4.12
|0.65
|0.59
|2.76
|3.65
|'''1.25'''
|-
|20:Q3
|0.7
|1.23
|4.82
|9.74
|6.5
|7.47
|'''2.43'''
|5.79
|5.7
|2.54
|1.73
|4.54
|6.53
|'''3.31'''
|2.09
|4.73
|0.96
|0.69
|4.36
|4.14
|'''1.7'''
|-
|20:Q2
|0.84
|1.25
|5.03
|9.75
|6.97
|7.66
|'''2.61'''
|6.29
|6.2
|3.1
|2.03
|6.63
|6.44
|'''3.99'''
|2.26
|5.05
|1.08
|0.78
|6.48
|4.59
|'''2.05'''
|-
|20:Q1
|1.06
|1.19
|5.05
|9.09
|10.75
|7.23
|'''3.17'''
|6.89
|6.84
|3.48
|2.02
|9.05
|7.11
|'''4.61'''
|2.37
|5.31
|1.17
|0.77
|8.87
|4.74
|'''2.38'''
|-
|19:Q4
|1.07
|0.84
|4.94
|8.36
|11.06
|6.98
|'''3.15'''
|6.91
|6.95
|3.5
|2.11
|9.44
|7.28
|'''4.67'''
|2.36
|5.32
|1.1
|0.85
|9.21
|4.7
|'''2.36'''
|-
|18:Q4
|1.06
|1.16
|4.47
|7.77
|11.42
|6.96
|'''3.1'''
|7.09
|6.65
|3.55
|1.75
|9.08
|7.35
|'''4.65'''
|2.36
|4.99
|1.19
|0.81
|8.94
|4.89
|'''2.36'''
|-
|17:Q4
|1.27
|1.67
|4.05
|7.55
|10.96
|6.78
|'''3.12'''
|7.21
|6.33
|3.4
|2.05
|9.61
|6.92
|'''4.57'''
|2.33
|4.64
|1.14
|0.9
|9.29
|4.59
|'''2.32'''
|-
|16:Q4
|1.57
|2.13
|3.75
|7.14
|11.17
|7
|'''3.3'''
|7.46
|5.52
|3.38
|2.73
|9.8
|6.71
|'''4.55'''
|2.25
|3.71
|1.29
|1.13
|9.42
|4.4
|'''2.36'''
|-
|15:Q4
|2.18
|2.24
|3.37
|7.65
|11.52
|7.02
|'''3.69'''
|7.13
|5.27
|3.85
|2.58
|10.46
|6.46
|'''4.84'''
|2.09
|3.72
|1.55
|0.97
|10.04
|4.03
|'''2.54'''
|-
|14:Q4
|3.07
|3.16
|3.47
|7.31
|11.32
|7.9
|'''4.3'''
|7.15
|5.35
|4.2
|3.18
|11.12
|6.81
|'''5.14'''
|1.88
|3.92
|1.81
|1.51
|10.13
|3.82
|'''2.71'''
|-
|13:Q4
|3.93
|3.19
|3.35
|9.45
|11.51
|8.94
|'''5.03'''
|6.85
|5.63
|5.25
|3.18
|11.33
|6.43
|'''5.83'''
|1.58
|3.91
|2.54
|1.51
|10.21
|3.93
|'''3.17'''
|-
|12:Q4
|5.58
|3.48
|4.03
|10.57
|11.73
|9.62
|'''6.31'''
|6.38
|6.36
|6.3
|3.48
|11.39
|6.87
|'''6.57'''
|1.52
|4.51
|3.48
|1.87
|10.28
|3.89
|'''3.86'''
|-
|11:Q4
|6.89
|4.71
|4.82
|11.48
|8.45
|10.51
|'''7.14'''
|6.77
|7.64
|8.02
|4.39
|10.64
|7.9
|'''7.89'''
|1.69
|5.87
|4.58
|3.06
|9.31
|4.64
|'''4.72'''
|-
|10:Q4
|7.61
|4.29
|5.27
|13.27
|9.12
|10.83
|'''7.83'''
|8.2
|10.74
|9.09
|5.06
|10.45
|10.11
|'''9.01'''
|2.31
|9.21
|5.84
|3.12
|8.46
|6.51
|'''5.84'''
|-
|09:Q4
|8.75
|4.37
|4.92
|12.7
|8.66
|9.22
|'''8.54'''
|10.46
|13.78
|11.66
|6.6
|10.18
|12.02
|'''11.35'''
|3.24
|10.96
|8.3
|4.54
|7.93
|7.72
|'''7.9'''
|-
|08:Q4
|5.59
|3.33
|3.94
|10.18
|7.82
|8.58
|'''5.89'''
|10.47
|11.84
|11.21
|7.32
|9.38
|12.32
|'''10.93'''
|3.29
|8.7
|6.65
|4.15
|7.38
|7.06
|'''6.47'''
|-
|07:Q4
|2.93
|1.32
|3.05
|9.48
|7.51
|6.2
|'''3.62'''
|9.41
|9.7
|7.99
|4.3
|9.82
|8.87
|'''8.1'''
|2.44
|6.75
|3.68
|1.82
|7.85
|4.61
|'''3.89'''
|-
|06:Q4
|1.31
|0.61
|2.62
|9.66
|7.14
|5.46
|'''2.33'''
|8.69
|8.76
|5.45
|2.85
|9.75
|7.43
|'''6.01'''
|2.22
|5.83
|1.68
|0.79
|7.88
|3.55
|'''2.25'''
|-
|05:Q4
|0.93
|0.16
|2.09
|8.53
|6.59
|5.94
|'''1.97'''
|7.34
|8.63
|4.68
|1.84
|8.88
|8.26
|'''5.32'''
|1.67
|5.79
|1.27
|0.38
|6.7
|4.21
|'''1.9'''
|-
|04:Q4
|1.08
|0.21
|2.42
|9.18
|6.32
|7.01
|'''2.26'''
|6.98
|9.85
|4.88
|2.08
|7.61
|8.28
|'''5.58'''
|1.78
|7
|1.36
|0.29
|6.09
|4.8
|'''2.11'''
|-
|03:Q4
|1.06
|0.31
|2.16
|9.24
|6.23
|7.47
|'''2.35'''
|7.79
|11.56
|5.27
|2.03
|
|8.8
|'''6.27'''
|2.04
|8.06
|1.44
|0.47
|
|4.88
|'''2.43'''
|}

== SCE CREDIT ACCESS SURVEY ==

=== June 2023 ===

* The application rate for any kind of credit over the past twelve months declined to 40.3 percent from 40.9 percent in February, its lowest reading since October 2020. Application rates declined to 11.9 percent for auto loans and 12.5 percent for credit card limit requests, but increased to 24.8 percent for credit cards, 6.5 percent for mortgages, and 5.3 percent for mortgage refinances<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/credit-access#/experiences-credit-applications12</ref>
* The overall rejection rate for credit applicants increased to 21.8 percent, the highest level since June 2018. The increase was broad-based across age groups and highest among those with credit scores below 680.
* The rejection rate for auto loans increased to 14.2 percent from 9.1 percent in February, a new series high. It increased for credit cards, credit card limit increase requests, mortgages, and mortgage refinance applications to 21.5 percent, 30.7 percent, 13.2 percent, and 20.8 percent, respectively.
* The proportion of respondents reporting that they are likely to apply for one or more types of credit over the next twelve months rose to 26.4 percent from 26.1 percent in February.
* The average reported probability that a loan application will be rejected increased sharply for all loan types. It rose to 30.7 percent for auto loans, 32.8 percent for credit cards, 42.4 percent for credit limit increase requests, 46.1 percent for mortgages, and 29.6 percent for mortgage refinance applications. The readings for auto loans, mortgages, and credit card limit increase requests are all new series highs.

== References ==

File:Debt to Incomeq32024.png

2024-11-18T20:38:33Z

MagaNH6:

File:Household Debt Y Y Growthq32024.png

2024-11-18T20:19:50Z

MagaNH6: