Advertising Industry: Historical Focasts

2023

December 2022

Magna Forecast

MAGNA predicts global media owners advertising revenues will reach $833 billion in 2023, +5% growth vs. 2022 ($795bn), slowing from +7% in 2022.

The new 2023 growth forecast is 1.5 percentage point below MAGNA’s previous global forecast (published in June 2022) due to a deteriorating macroeconomic outlook. MAGNA’s June forecast was based on a global economic growth expected at the time to reach +3.6% in 2023 (real GDP forecast from IMF WEO April 2022) but that expectation was since cut down to +2.7% in the latest IMF update (WEO October 2022).

In 2023, the growth rate of the US market is expected to be below average at +4%, reaching a total of $330 billion, due to weak demand as GDP growth is predicted to be under 1% and a lack of cyclical advertising spending.

https://magnaglobal.com/traditional-media-resilient-through-economic-uncertainty-social-media-stalls-under-headwinds/

• Television ad revenues across all platforms it is projected to decrease by 4% in 2023.
• OOH media will complete a full global recovery in 2023 by growing by +6% to $33.5 billion.
• Audio advertising formats expected to have flat ad sales in 2023 (+1%)
• Publishing advertising predicts another decline of -3% for global publishing ad sales in 2023.
• Organic growth factors will generate an additional +10% in global Search spend in 2023.
• MAGNA anticipates social media advertising to re-accelerate only slightly in 2023 (+7%)
• Digital Video advertising will increase by +11% in 2023 to reach $65 billion.

Zenith Forecast

According to Zenith, the advertising industry is expected to maintain its resilience in 2023 despite current economic challenges, driven by the growth of new channels such as retail media and advertising on Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) services. They anticipate a 4.5% growth in ad spending. Furthermore, global ad spending growth is expected to pick up pace to 7.2% in 2024, driven by major events like the US Presidential elections and the Olympics.

Online advertising, specifically Search and Social Media, is expected to continue as the fastest-growing category, making up 55% of overall ad spending in 2022 and projected to increase to 57% by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 7%.