Conference Board Leading Index: 2023

December 2023

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.1 percent in December 2023 to 103.1 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent decline in November.
• The LEI contracted by 2.9 percent over the six-month period between June and December 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3 percent contraction over the previous six months.
• The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2 percent in December 2023 to 111.7 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in November. The CEI expanded by 1.1 percent over the second half of 2023, up from its 0.8 percent growth rate over the first half of 2023.

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-jan-2024

November 2023

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.5 percent in November 2023 to 103.0 (2016=100), following a (downwardly revised) decline of 1.0 percent in October.
• The LEI contracted by 3.5 percent over the six-month period between May and November 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3 percent contraction over the previous six months (November 2022 to May 2023).
• The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2 percent in November 2023 to 111.2 (2016=100), after no change in October. The CEI is now up 1.0 percent over the six-month period between May and November 2023, compared to 0.7 percent growth over the previous six months.

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-dec-2023

October 2023

“The US LEI trajectory remained negative, and its six- and twelve-month growth rates also held in negative territory in October,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.  “ After a pause in September, the LEI resumed signaling recession in the near term. The Conference Board expects elevated inflation, high interest rates, and contracting consumer spending—due to depleting pandemic saving and mandatory student loan repayments—to tip the US economy into a very short recession. We forecast that real GDP will expand by just 0.8 percent in 2024.”

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.8 percent in October 2023 to 103.9 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.7 percent in September.
• The LEI contracted by 3.3 percent over the six-month period between April and October 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.5 percent contraction over the previous six months (October 2022 to April 2023).
• The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in October 2023 at 110.8 (2016=100), but the index is below its September’s level after a downward revision.

September 2023

“The LEI for the US fell again in September, marking a year and a half of consecutive monthly declines since April 2022,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “In September, negative or flat contributions from nine of the index’s ten components more than offset fewer initial claims for unemployment insurance. Although the six-month growth rate in the LEI is somewhat less negative, and the recession signal did not sound, it still signals risk of economic weakness ahead. So far, the US economy has shown considerable resilience despite pressures from rising interest rates and high inflation. Nonetheless, The Conference Board forecasts that this trend will not be sustained for much longer, and a shallow recession is likely in the first half of 2024.”

• LEI for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in September 2023 to 104.6 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.5 percent in August.
• The LEI is down 3.4 percent over the six-month period between March and September 2023, an improvement from its 4.6 percent contraction over the previous six months (September 2022 to March 2023).
• CEI for the U.S. increased by 0.3 percent in September 2023 to 110.9 (2016=100), after a 0.1 percent increase in August. The CEI is now up 1.1 percent over the six-month period between March and September 2023, compared to 0.4 percent growth over the previous six months.
  

  https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-oct-2023

August 2023

“With August’s decline, the US Leading Economic Index has now fallen for nearly a year and a half straight, indicating the economy is heading into a challenging growth period and possible recession over the next year,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The leading index continued to be negatively impacted in August by weak new orders, deteriorating consumer expectations of business conditions, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions. All these factors suggest that going forward economic activity probably will decelerate and experience a brief but mild contraction. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP will grow by 2.2 percent in 2023, and then fall to 0.8 percent in 2024.”

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4 percent in August 2023 to 105.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.3 percent in July.
• The LEI is down 3.8 percent over the six-month period between February and August 2023—little changed from its 3.9 percent contraction over the previous six months (August 2022 to February 2023).
• The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. improved by 0.2 percent in August 2023 to 110.6 (2016=100), after a 0.3 percent increase in July. The CEI is now up 0.8 percent over the six-month period between February and August 2023—an acceleration from its 0.5 percent growth over the previous six months.

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators

July 2023

“The US LEI—which tracks where the economy is heading—fell for the sixteenth consecutive month in July, signaling the outlook remains highly uncertain” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “On the other hand, the coincident index (CEI)—which tracks where economic activity stands right now—has continued to grow slowly but inconsistently, with three of the past six months not changing and the rest increasing. As such, the CEI is signaling that we are currently still in a favorable growth environment. However, in July, weak new orders, high interest rates, a dip in consumer perceptions of the outlook for business conditions, and decreasing hours worked in manufacturing fueled the leading indicator’s 0.4 percent decline. The leading index continues to suggest that economic activity is likely to decelerate and descend into mild contraction in the months ahead. The Conference Board now forecasts a short and shallow recession in the Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 timespan.”

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4 percent in July 2023 to 105.8 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.7 percent in June.
• The LEI is down 4.0 percent over the six-month period between January and July 2023—a slight deterioration from its 3.7 percent contraction over the previous six months (July 2022 to January 2023).
• The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. improved by 0.4 percent in July 2023 to 110.5 (2016=100), after no change in June. The CEI is now up 0.7 percent over the six-month period between January and July 2023—down slightly from the 0.9 percent growth rate recorded over the previous six months

June 2023

“The US LEI fell again in June, fueled by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, an increased number of initial claims for unemployment, and a reduction in housing construction,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The Leading Index has been in decline for fifteen months—the longest streak of consecutive decreases since 2007-08, during the runup to the Great Recession. Taken together, June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead. We forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024. Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further.”

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in June 2023 to 106.1 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.6 percent in May.
• The LEI is down 4.2 percent over the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months (June to December 2022).
• The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. remained unchanged in June 2023 at 110.0 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2 percent in May. The CEI is now up 0.6 percent over the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023—down from the 1.1 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months.

May 2023

“The US LEI continued to fall in May as a result of deterioration in the gauges of consumer expectations for business conditions, ISM New Orders Index, a negative yield spread, and worsening credit conditions,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The US Leading Index has declined in each of the last fourteen months and continues to point to weaker economic activity ahead. Rising interest rates paired with persistent inflation will continue to further dampen economic activity. While we revised our Q2 GDP forecast from negative to slight growth, we project that the US economy will contract over the Q3 2023 to Q1 2024 period. The recession likely will be due to continued tightness in monetary policy and lower government spending.”

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in May 2023 to 106.7, following a decline of 0.6 percent in April.
• The LEI is down 4.3 percent over the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months from May to November 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2 percent in May 2023 to 110.2, after rising by 0.3 percent in April. The CEI is now up 0.8 percent over the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023—down slightly from the 0.9 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months.

April 2023

The LEI for the US declined for the thirteenth consecutive month in April, signaling a worsening economic outlook. The LEI continues to warn of an economic downturn this year. The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for theU.S. declined 0.6 percent in April 2023, following a decline of 1.2 percent in March.
• The LEI is down 4.4 percent over the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months (April–October 2022).
• The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.3 percent in April 2023 to 110.2 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2 percent in March. The CEI is now up 0.7 percent over the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023—down from the 0.9 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months.

March 2023

The U.S. LEI fell to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. fell by 1.2 percent in March 2023 to 108.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.5 percent in February.
• The LEI is down 4.5 percent over the six-month period between September 2022 and March 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.5 percent contraction over the previous six months

• The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2 percent in March 2023, after also rising 0.2 percent in February. The CEI is now up 0.8 percent over the six-month period between September 2022 and March 2023—slightly lower than the 1.0 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months

February 2023

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. fell again by 0.3 percent in February 2023 to 110.0 (2016=100), after also declining by 0.3 percent in January
• The LEI is down 3.6 percent over the six-month period between August 2022 and February 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.0 percent contraction over the previous six months (February–August 2022).

December 2022

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for theU.S. decreased by 1.0 percent in December 2022 to 110.5 (2016=100), following a decline of 1.1 percent in November. The LEI is now down 4.2 percent over the six-month period between June and December 2022—a much steeper rate of decline than its 1.9 percent contraction over the previous six-month period (December 2021–June 2022)
• The recession signal was hit in August 2022.