Euro Zone Inflation

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Details about HCPI: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html

Weighing of HCPI components

This table shows household expenditure weights used by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area and the euro area countries. The figures are shown as a percentage of the expenditures covered by the overall HICP. The HICP expenditure weights are updated on an annual basis. [1]

1. HICP - Overall index 1,000.00
1.1. Weight of the country within the euro area 1,000.00
1.2. HICP - FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 161.37
1.3. HICP - ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES, TOBACCO 38.38
1.4. HICP - CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR 52.4
1.5. HICP - HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS 151.61
1.6. HICP - FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND ROUTINE HOUSE MAINTENANCE 67.69
1.7. HICP - HEALTH 49.3
1.8. HICP - TRANSPORT 150.42
1.9. HICP - COMMUNICATION 26.74
1.10. HICP - RECREATION AND CULTURE 88.75
1.11. HICP - EDUCATION 9.8
1.12. HICP - RESTAURANTS AND HOTELS 104.77
1.13. HICP - MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES 98.76

Historical CPI Releases

TIME Euro area[2] EU Core European [3]
2023-08 5.2 5.9 5.3
2023-07 5.3 6.1 5.5
2023-06 5.5 6.4 5.5
2023-05 7.1 6.1 5.3
2023-04 8.1 7.0 5.6
2023-03 8.3 6.9 5.7
2023-02 9.9 8.5 5.6
2023-01 10.0 8.6 5.3
2022-12 10.4 9.2 5.2
2022-11 11.1 10.1 5.0
2022-10 11.5 10.6 5.0
2022-09 10.9 9.9 4.8
2022-08 10.1 9.1 4.3
2022-07 9.8 8.9 4.0
2022-06 9.6 8.6 3.7
2022-05 8.8 8.1 3.8
2022-04 8.1 7.4 3.5
2022-03 7.8 7.4 2.9
2022-02 6.2 5.9 2.7
2022-01 5.6 5.1 2.3

Developments

[4] Weights

(‰ )

Annual rate Monthly

rate

2023 Jul 22 Feb 23 Mar 23 Apr 23 May 23 Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23
All-items HICP 1000.0   8.9   8.5   6.9   7.0   6.1   5.5   5.3   5.2    4.3   -0.1   0.5    0.3 
All-items excluding:

> energy

 897.7   5.4   7.8   7.9   7.4   7.0   6.9   6.7   6.3    5.5   -0.1   0.3    0.2 
> energy, unprocessed food  852.7   5.1   7.4   7.5   7.3   6.9   6.8   6.6   6.2    5.5    -0.1   0.3    0.2 
> energy, food, alcohol & tobacco  697.9   4.0   5.6   5.7   5.6   5.3   5.5   5.5   5.3    4.5   -0.1   0.3    0.2 
Food, alcohol & tobacco  199.8   9.8   15.0    15.5    13.5    12.5    11.6    10.8   9.7    8.8    0.1   0.0    0.1 
> processed food, alcohol & tobacco  154.8   9.4   15.4    15.7    14.6    13.4    12.4    11.3   10.3    9.4    0.4   0.2   -0.1 
> unprocessed food   45.0   11.1    13.9    14.7    10.0    9.6   9.0   9.2   7.8    6.6   -0.6  -0.6    0.5 
Energy  102.3   39.6    13.7   -0.9   2.3  -1.8  -5.6  -6.1  -3.3   -4.6   -0.2   3.3    1.5 
Non-energy industrial goods  262.7   4.5   6.8   6.6   6.2   5.8   5.5   5.0   4.7    4.1   -2.7   0.6    2.1 
Services  435.3   3.7   4.8   5.1   5.2   5.0   5.4   5.6   5.5    4.7    1.3   0.2   -0.9 

September 2023

  • The euro area annual inflation rate was 4.3% in September 2023, down from 5.2% in August. A year earlier, the rate was 9.9%.[5]
  • European Union annual inflation was 4.9% in September 2023, down from 5.9% in August. A year earlier, the rate was 10.9%.
Contributions
Sep 22 Apr 23 May 23 Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23
Food, alcohol & tobacco   2.47    2.75    2.54    2.35    2.20    1.98    1.78 
> processed food, alcohol & tobacco   1.85    2.27    2.08    1.93    1.77    1.61    1.47 
> unprocessed food   0.63    0.48    0.45    0.42    0.43    0.37    0.31 
Energy   4.19    0.37   -0.09   -0.57   -0.62   -0.34   -0.55 
Non-energy industrial goods   1.47    1.62    1.51    1.42    1.26    1.19    1.06 
Services   1.80    2.21    2.15    2.31    2.47    2.41    2.05 

European Union annual inflation was 4.9% in September 2023, down from 5.9% in August. A year earlier, the rate was 10.9%.August 2023

Contributions
Aug 22 Mar 23 Apr 23 May 23 Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23
Food, alcohol & tobacco   2.25    3.12    2.75    2.54    2.35    2.20    1.98 
> processed food, alcohol & tobacco   1.70    2.43    2.27    2.08    1.93    1.77    1.61 
> unprocessed food   0.55    0.69    0.48    0.45    0.42    0.43    0.37 
Energy   3.95   -0.05    0.37   -0.09   -0.57   -0.62   -0.34 
Non-energy industrial goods   1.33    1.71    1.62    1.51    1.42    1.26    1.19 
Services   1.62    2.10    2.21    2.15    2.31    2.47    2.41 
  • The euro area annual inflation rate was 5.2% in August 2023, down from 5.3% in July. A year earlier, the rate was 9.1%. [6]
  • European Union annual inflation was 5.9% in August 2023, down from 6.1% in July. A year earlier, the rate was 10.1%.

July 2023

Contributions
Jul 22 Feb 23 Mar 23 Apr 23 May 23 Jun 23 Jul 23
Food, alcohol & tobacco   2.08    3.10    3.12    2.75    2.54    2.35    2.20 
> processed food, alcohol & tobacco   1.53    2.43    2.43    2.27    2.08    1.93    1.77 
> unprocessed food   0.55    0.67    0.69    0.48    0.45    0.42    0.43 
Energy   4.02    1.64   -0.05    0.37   -0.09   -0.57   -0.62 
Non-energy industrial goods   1.16    1.74    1.71    1.62    1.51    1.42    1.26 
Services   1.60    2.02    2.10    2.21    2.15    2.31    2.47 
  • The euro area annual inflation rate was 5.3% in July 2023, down from 5.5% in June. A year earlier, the rate was 8.9%[7]
  • European Union annual inflation was 6.1% in July 2023, down from 6.4% in June. A year earlier, the rate was 9.8%.
  • Core consumer prices, stripping out volatile elements like food and energy, rose 5.5% from a year earlier.
  • In July, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (+2.47 percentage points, pp), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+2.20 pp), non-energy industrial goods (+1.26 pp) and energy (-0.62 pp).

June 2023

[8] Contributions
Jun 22 Jan 23 Feb 23 Mar 23 Apr 23 May 23 Jun 23
Food, alcohol & tobacco   1.88    2.94    3.10    3.12    2.75    2.54    2.35 
> processed food, alcohol & tobacco   1.33    2.38    2.43    2.43    2.27    2.08    1.93 
> unprocessed food   0.55    0.56    0.67    0.69    0.48    0.45    0.42 
Energy   4.19    2.17    1.64   -0.05    0.37   -0.09   -0.57 
Non-energy industrial goods   1.15    1.73    1.74    1.71    1.62    1.51    1.42 
Services   1.42    1.81    2.02    2.10    2.21    2.15    2.31 
  • The euro area annual inflation rate was 5.5% in June 2023, down from 6.1% in May. A year earlier, the rate was 8.6%.
  • European Union annual inflation was 6.4% in June 2023, down from 7.1% in May. A year earlier, the rate was 9.6%.
  • Core consumer prices, stripping out volatile elements like food and energy, rose 5.5% from a year earlier, Eurostat said Wednesday. That compares with a preliminary estimate of 5.4% and a reading of 5.3% in May.

“We expect sticky core inflation through summer will dominate the debate and push the ECB to deliver a last hike in September, to a terminal rate of 4%. The small upward revision to the core reading to 5.5% illustrates this tension.” —Maeva Cousin, euro-area economist. [9]

May 2023

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/16965667/2-16062023-AP-EN.pdf/53bd53c6-7983-f5c9-84c1-73babbb9f075
  • The euro area annual inflation rate was 6.1% in May 2023, down from 7.0% in April. A year earlier, the rate was 8.1%. [10]
  • European Union annual inflation was 7.1% in May 2023, down from 8.1% in April. A year earlier, the rate was 8.8%.
  • In May, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from food, alcohol & tobacco (+2.54 percentage points, pp), followed by services (+2.15 pp), non-energy industrial goods (+1.51 pp) and energy (-0.09 pp)

March 2023

Euro zone headline inflation dropped to 6.9% in March from 8.5% in February-the biggest deceleration ever and below the 7.1% estimate. However, core inflation rose slightly to 5.7% from 5.6% in February, in-line with expectations.The drop in headline inflation was mainly contributed by the 0.9% drop in energy prices. This shows that core inflation remains sticky as noted by ECB Member Isabel Schnabel on Thursday. Chief economist Philip Lane recently said that more rate hikes are needed to bring down inflation[11].

March 2, 202

: Euro zone inflation moderated slightly in February but was above expectations. Headline inflation in the Euro Zone declined to 8.5% in February from 8.6% in January. Economists polled by Reuters were expecting it to drop to 8.2%. Meanwhile, core inflation rose to 5.6% from 5.3% in January. It was expected to stay steady at 5.3%. The rise in core inflation was mainly due to service prices which grew from 4.4% to 4.8% on the year[12]. Falling energy prices mainly contributed to the drop in headline inflation. Energy prices declined to 13.7% from 18.9% in January[13]. ECB president Christine Lagarde had indicated last week that inflation will likely rise slightly in February but is on track to fall in March due to high energy prices last year which has a base effect on year-on-year comparisons. However, the rise in core inflation raises the possibility of a 50 basis points rate hike in May.[12]

References

  1. ↑ https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_statistics/escb/html/table.en.html?id=JDF_ICP_COICOP_INW
  2. ↑ https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/PRC_HICP_MANR__custom_3761882/bookmark/table?lang=en&bookmarkId=4ad27e6f-358a-4a3d-82a0-587d69a833eb
  3. ↑ https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-cpi-317
  4. ↑ https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/17250642/2-31072023-AP-EN.pdf
  5. ↑ https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/17689333/2-18102023-AP-EN.pdf/028b6ff3-2775-c4fb-4649-bbc8a0a46579
  6. ↑ https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/17524083/2-19092023-AP-EN.pdf/7b701ff5-0011-ccc9-8cde-9f559f345ce9
  7. ↑ https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/17334860/2-18082023-AP-EN.pdf/87768822-b43d-3ceb-46f3-b103110feb20
  8. ↑ https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/17179282/2-19072023-AP-EN.pdf/bf200c74-48a4-e485-3372-c1fd1083c169
  9. ↑ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-19/eurozone-inflation-latest-core-inflation-stronger-than-anticipated-in-june
  10. ↑ https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/16965667/2-16062023-AP-EN.pdf/53bd53c6-7983-f5c9-84c1-73babbb9f075
  11. ↑ https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/31/inflation-euro-zone-dropped-march-but-the-ecb-rate-hike-path-is-unclear.html#:~:text=Europe%20Economy-,Euro%20zone%20price%20rises%20cool%20significantly%20in%20March,core%20inflation%20hits%20record%20high&text=The%20main%20reason%20behind%20the,cycle%2C%20which%20started%20in%20July.
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/euro-zone-inflation-eases-february-core-prices-surge-2023-03-02/#:~:text=Consumer%20price%20inflation%20in%20the,a%20Reuters%20poll%20of%20economists.
  13. ↑ https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/16138299/2-02032023-AP-EN.pdf/91fa331d-8f61-adff-5e42-d92a64b6ee81?version=1.0&t=1677682415813
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