Gaza-Israel War

See also: Geopolitics: Sources

Current Situation

October 10, 2023

• Hamas asked citizens of Israeli city Ashkelon to leave by 10.am ET, without giving reason for the decision.
• Netanyahu’s coalition approves a proposal to include the opposition in government in order to secure the country's political stability.
• As part of its preparation for an escalated response against the attack, Israel said it has drafted 300,000 reservists for ground offensive.
• Israeli Defense Forces(IDF) said it has regained full control over the Gaza-Israel border and that no Hamas fighters have entered Israel since last night though infiltration is still possible.
• In Israel, more than 900 have been killed and 2600 injured while in Gaza, more than 687 have been killed and 3,700 injured.
• Hamaz said it has 150 Israeli hostages.

October 9, 2023

• Hezbollah fired a barrage of rockets into Israel's Shebaa farms after more than three of its members were killed on a Sunday bombardment of Southern Lebanon by Israel.
• U.S announced that it will deploy USS Gerald R Ford Carrier Strike Group to Israel among other military support such as Iron Doom support.

Iran position on the war

• Iran foreign ministry said they support Hamaz but was not involved on the attack on Israel. It added that any action against Iran by Israel will be met by devastating force.
• Iran's supreme leader praised Palestinian's bravery against Israel and that they will continue providing humanitarian support.
• Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed armed group is already supporting Hamaz.
• U.S officials have said they haven't seen any evidence of Iran's involvement on the attack yet.
• According to a Senior Israeli diplomat, a direct confrontation with Iran is unlikely. "Iran's strategy is that of proxy war and to deny a direct connection to Hamas's efforts. They work through proxies and that's why they are the number one state sponsor of terror. So for now we are not concerned about a direct conflict with Iran, " he said.

How strong is Hezbollah?

• The group is considered one of Israel's strongest enemies in the region.
• Its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, claimed in 2021 that the group has 100,000 fighters.
• The U.S estimates that the group has received hundreds of millions dollars annually from Iran.
• Hezbollah boasts precision rockets and claim that they can hit any part of Israel.
• It commands a strong political following in Lebanon.
• The group has around 150,000 rockets and missiles.
• The July War of 2006, ended in death of more than 1,100 Lebanese and 165 Israelis, though the Israeli government concluded that the war was unsuccessful and “missed opportunity.”
• Palestine fighting group factions in Lebanon have pledged to join the war if Hezbollah supports them, in what analysts say could drag Lebanon into the war.
• Hezbollah has vowed to engage Israel directy if it escalates its attacks on Gaza strip.
• According to Nicholas Blanford, an expert with the Atlantic Council, Hezbollah is capable of launching a sophisticated attack on Israel if it chooses, though the possibility of a war between the two is unlikely but can't be ruled out.
• Blanford said the tactics used by Hamas to attack Israel were from Hezbollah's guidebook.

What is Hamaz?

• Hamaz is an Islamic Resistance Movement that controls the Gaza Strip.
• It has been in power since 2007.
• It was founded in 1987 in Gaza after the start of Intifada, an uprising against Israel's occupation of Gaza.
• Hamaz is termed as a “terrorist” organisation by Israel, the United States, European Union, Canada, Egypt and Japan.
• Hamaz said it carried out the Saturday attack against Israel in response to its atrocities against the Palestinian people.
• Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the second-largest armed group in Gaza have been united against Israel though the relationship between the two has been tense lately as Hamas exerted pressure against on the latter against carrying out attacks against Israel.

• Israel says Hamaz has 30,000 fighters, rockets that have range of up to 250 kilometers (155 miles), and unmanned drones.
• The attack on Israel is seen as a retaliation against Israel-Saudi Arabia relationship normalization.
• Gaza has a population of 2.3 million people (1 million being children).

Source: Aljazeera

Israel-Saudi Arabia peace deal

• The attack on Israel by Hamas is seen as a way to derail its peace deal with Saudi-Arabia.
• Saudi Arabia wants to make peace with Israel in return for military support from U.S against Iran.
• Saudi Arabia also wants American support for its civilian nuclear program, among other things.
• Demands of Palestines are not included in the deal.

Analyst Opinions

Israel wants to dismantle Hamas and will conduct a ground operation in Gaza

According to multiple analysts like William Wechsler of the Atlantic council (Oct 12) and Leon Panetta, Chairman of the Panetta Institute for Public Policy (Oct 12) there is a strong consensus in Israel to dismantle Hamas and all it's structures in order to prevent them from ever launching a similar attack again. In order to achieve this goal a ground operation is necessary and imminent.

The siege of Gaza might be designed to reduce popular support of Hamas and have the population turn against them

• That is according to American Enterprise Institute Scholar Kenneth Pollack. (Oct 10)

Iran involvement in Hamas attack is likely

• Dalia Dassa, Senior Fellow at Center for International Relations said there are many rational reasons as to why Iran/ Hezbollah would not join the war, but as emotions and tensions increase in the region, the war escalates (min 23 and 54:30)-Oct 18.

• Rym Momtaz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies believes that Total announcement that they didn't found any oil in the part of Lebanon they were looking into may change the rules of the war(minute 16:22-22:16, Oct 13).

• According to Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Iran may feel that they are in a better position geographically to engage in the war with Israel (around minute 34:00)-October 13. That the tensions with China and Russia may validate their war against the west.

• Kenneth Pollack of American Enterprise Institute thinks Israel wants to remain ambiguous about Irans involvement in the attack until it has to capacity to deal with Iran and has decided on how it wants to deal with it. (Oct 16)
• William Wechsler of Atlantic Council said without Iran, Hamas would not have weapons(Oct 10).

• According to Daniel Byman of Foreign Policy (FP) , Hezbollah is controlled by Iran (Oct 9).
• Ray Takeyh of Council on Foreign Relations (cfr) said it's not a question of whether Iran was involved in the attack, but a question of the extent of the involvement (Oct 9).
• Frank Figliuzzi, National Security Analyst, said Hamas could not have pulled off the attack without the help of Iran (Oct 8).

Iran warns to take action in case of Gaza ground operation

• To add: Warnings from Iran

Reasons why Iran might not interfering

• David Hale, Global Fellow said Iranians/ Hezbollah are happy to see Palestinians die to the last in fight against Israel (around min 15:30)-Oct 19.

• If Iran uses Hezbollah, it would have lost two strategic proxies that ensures deterrence against Israel in the region (around 1:25, Oct 16).

• John Raine of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said exchanges of fire between Iran forces and Israeli forces would require huge strategic nerve by Iran, which they may not have; hence Iran want to leave room for a range of responses that support the war but fall short of what is asked for by Hamas(minute 28, Oct 13).

• According to TLDR sunni Hamas is more of an strategic partner to shia Iran and not a proxy like Hezbollah. It is therefore less likely to intervene. (Oct 15)
• Iran population seems to have zero tolerance for the war, according to Professor Karim Emile Bitar, Senior Fellow at The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) (Oct 11)
• He doesn't see involvement of Iran in the Northern front since they are satisfied with what has happened (Oct 9).

Reasons why Hezbollah might not get involved

• Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Hezbollah is Iran's ultimate tool of deterrence; hence may only deploy it if they feel there is an existential threat (around minute 32, Oct 13).

• Professor Karim Emile Bitar, Senior Fellow at The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS), said Hezbollah is playing cautious (Oct 11)
• Professor James A Russel, Department of National Security Affairs, doesn't see the war spilling into wider regional conflict (Oct 11).
• Natan Sachs of Brookings Institute and Steven Cook of Council on Foreign Relations are treating Hezbollah as Iran (Oct 10).

• Nicholas Blanford of Atlantic Council said Iran has the final say in " whether Hezbollah goes to war with Israel (Oct 10). " He added that Hezbollah is an important component of Iran's deterrence against Israel or the U.S, hence it's unlikely that they "will want to waste Hezbollah in a futile full-scale war with Israel for the sake of supporting Hamas in Gaza." According to Blanford, it seems evident that Israel does not want a war with Hezbollah. Hence; the risk lies in Hezbollah deciding to raise the strength of the fight, especially if Israel starts ground incursion of Gaza. He pointed out that the closer Hezbollah moves to the threshold level, the higher the chance of miscalculation that leads to a war that neither side currently appears to desire.
• Ray Takeyh the northern front to remain "stabilized" and doesn't see direct war between Israel and Iran (Oct 9).
• Daniel Byman of Foreign Policy (FP) said Hezbollah may prefer to sit on the sidelines as they cheer Hamas and if they join, it will complicate Israel's fight (Oct 9)

Reasons why Hezbollah might want get involved

• David Hale, Global Fellow said said anything can happen. That the rules of the game in the Southern and Northern Lebanon border can't necessarily be counted and that if Israel doesn't succeed, the proxies might take advantage (min 54:30)-Oct 18 .

• Jonathan Panikoff of Atlantic Council said Hezbollah could get involved if there is a chance that Hamas will be attacked to an extent that it may no longer be a valuable partner (Oct 9)

How close is Iran to having nuclear weapon

According to experts who appeared for FDD discussions (October 16, 2023);

• There is a consensus that it takes Iran about 12 days to enrich uranium into a weapon grade. By the end of a month, they would have produce enough uranium for a total of 6 weapons (minute 14:37-15:55)
• Iranian missiles quality eg range, precision. lethality and survivability has improved (minute 18:07-24:35).
• Iran doesn't have over 5,500 KM missiles but can develop a three-stable ballistic missile that could make up for the short range (minute 18:07-24:35).The missile also has more stable storable liquid propellants eg corrosives.
• If Iran uses hezbollah or its other proxy in the West Bank, they might decide to enrich uranium in its hidden plant (83% to 85% capacity)- minute 27:17.
• Iran may decide to go for the nuclear bomb if its proxies are defeated (minute 33:18)
• Iran has deployed advanced centrifuges or more across its 3 enrichement plants and they have enough uranium for 10 weapons (minute 34:52)

According to the Institute of Peace and Diplomacy (September 26, 2023) discussions (around minute 35), there have been recent media reports that Iran is slowing down the enrichment of uranium due to a deal reached with U.S.

According to Stimson Centre (March 14, 2023) discussions (minute 6:10-22:00);

• Iran has enriched to 60% in one of its locations.
• Iran now positioned to develop a small nuclear weapon.
• The 84% of nuclear particles detected by iea were described by Iran as "unintended fluctuations from 60%" and the iea president said Iran is not accumulating uranium enriched to this level.
• Iran has no mastered how to build uranium metal work . It will take Iran 1 to 2 years to build the metal work, probably 6 to 12 months at the earliest.

Strategic reasons for Hamas attack to stop Saudi-Israel deal

• MP Bob Seeley, member of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, said Iran wants to stop normalization of Israel (Oct 9) .