Guideline:News Importance Ratings
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This Guideline describes how we should rate and rank the importance of News.
Assessment
Assess the importance of events by thinking about the impact those news have on the company.
- Calculate the additional revenue or savings a new initiative might have and compare it to the revenue and profits of the company.
- Think about how a different medium term interest rate influences the discount rate and therefore the company valuation. (See models)
- Think about how strongly the change is influencing the company overall (See our valuation system and weighings)
- Think about the stage of the news (early testing, rumors vs. wide role out or confirmed news)
- Think about the source and credibility of the news. Is it coming from the company itself (highest credibility) or some unknown social media users (lowest credibility)?
General Note
- Only call me Moritz when you are unsure if he has seen the news. (He did not specify that he is watching the event)
- Remind Moritz on important upcoming Events via Message.
- Ratings depend to a strong degree if the News are new and previously unknown (to Moritz). (The more insightful/surprising/deviating from expectations news are the more important they get)
Scale
10
A ten is the highest importance and indicated that Moritz needs to be directly notified by multiple calls as it is likely that actions needs to be taken. It should be used very sparely.
Consequence: A message is going to be sent to Moritz and he will be called/pinged multiple times via Slack /WhatsApp until he responds.
Examples: Most crucial data points like cpi numbers, company earnings, central bank decision deviate strongly from expectations and we expect a strong market move and suspect action from our side is taken.
9
A ten indicates that there is some likely hood that action needs to be taken and Moritz will be notified with a msg and one call/ping via Slack.
Consequence: A message is going to be sent to Moritz and he will be called/pinged once via Slack to notify him.
Examples: Important data points like CPI numbers, company earnings, central bank decisions come in and are more or less in line with expectations. The likely hood that action needs to be taken is under 30%.
We are getting important new assessment from an important figure like a FED governor that deviate strongly from our previous interpretation. [1]
8
Consequence: A message is going to be send in Telegram and Slack channel and Moritz is tagged.
Example 1: News that we regard as highly important like important insights predictions from a FED Governor.
Example 2: News such as "ValueAct takes stake in Spotify."[2]
7
Consequence: A message is going to be send in Telegram and Moritz is tagged.
Example 1: News such as "Volkswagen Brand's cost-cut measures aren't going as planned"[3].
References
- ↑ https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/08/fed-governor-christopher-waller-warns-that-interest-rates-could-go-higher-than-expectations.html
- ↑ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-10/valueact-takes-spotify-stake-backs-streaming-leader-s-cost-cuts
- ↑ https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/volkswagen-news/100/103