Forum: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/u-s-real-estate/126

Data: Housing

Housing Market as a Leading Indicator

Housing accounts for a significant portion of investment spending by American households and overall economic activity. And has a significant impact on other industries, including labor, construction, raw materials, consumer durables, banking, and real estate. According to Leamer[1], in six of the ten recessions since 1950, residential investment was the greatest contributor to weakness prior to the recession with an average contribution of 22% of weakness in gdp 1 year prior to the recession. And that an unusual residential investment contribution to GDP growth in one quarter predicts twice as much contribution from some other sector the next quarter.

In the residential investment data displayed in Figure 12 there is one false positive in 1951-2 and another in 1966 -67. In both cases housing was weakening substantially but there was no recession. Why is that? Those two false positives occurred coincidentally with a big ramp-up in defense spending for the Korean War and the Vietnam War. Alarms of forthcoming recessions that were met by a response that prevented the recessions from occurring.

Also important to point out that is volumes that matter for real GDP accounting, not prices. Prices can matter indirectly through a wealth effect, but be a little skeptical about this. And that the sluggishness of price adjustments is what makes the volume cycle so extreme, and what makes housing so important in recessions.

US Housing Shortage

NAHB Index

Methodology

The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI is a weighted average of three separate component indices: Present Single-Family Sales, Single-Family Sales for the Next Six Months, and Traffic of Prospective Buyers. Each month, a panel of builders rates the first two on a scale of “good,” “fair” or “poor” and the last on a scale of “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low”. An index is calculated for each series by applying the formula “(good – poor + 100)/2” or, for Traffic, “(high/very high – low/very low + 100)/2”.

Each resulting index is first seasonally adjusted, then weighted to produce the HMI. The weights are .5920 for Present Sales, .1358 for Sales for the Next Six Months, and .2722 for Traffic. The weights were chosen to maximize the correlation with starts through the following six months.

The HMI can range between 0 and 100.

Date NAHB Housing Market Index[2]
2024-07-01 41
2024-06-01 43
2024-05-01 45
2024-04-01 51
2024-03-01 51
2024-02-01 48
2024-01-01 44
2023-12-01 37
2023-11-01 34
2023-10-01 40
2023-09-01 44
2023-08-01 50
2023-07-01 56
2023-06-01 55
2023-05-01 50
2023-04-01 45
2023-03-01 44
2023-02-01 42
2023-01-01 35
2022-12-01 31
2022-11-01 33
2022-10-01 38
2022-09-01 46
2022-08-01 49
2022-07-01 55
2022-06-01 67
2022-05-01 69
2022-04-01 77
2022-03-01 79
2022-02-01 81
2022-01-01 83
2021-12-01 84
2021-11-01 83
2021-10-01 80
2021-09-01 76
2021-08-01 75
2021-07-01 80
2021-06-01 81
2021-05-01 83
2021-04-01 83
2021-03-01 82
2021-02-01 84
2021-01-01 83

Building Permits

Authorized

in Permit-Issuing Places: Total Units[3]

Date Total (K) SAAR M/M Level Change M/M Y/Y
2024-09-01 1,425 -45.00 -3.06 -5.94
2024-08-01 1,470 64.00 4.55 -6.84
2024-07-01 1,406 -48.00 -3.30 -6.33
2024-06-01 1,454 55.00 3.93 -2.61
2024-05-01 1,399 -41.00 -2.85 -8.68
2024-04-01 1,440 -45.00 -3.03 -2.04
2024-03-01 1,485 -78.00 -4.99 -0.54
2024-02-01 1,563 55.00 3.65 -3.52
2024-01-01 1,508 -22.00 -1.44 4.50
2023-12-01 1,530 22.00 1.46 9.29
2023-11-01 1,508 -26.00 -1.69 7.56
2023-10-01 1,534 19.00 1.25 -1.67
2023-09-01 1,515 -63.00 -3.99 -6.08
2023-08-01 1,578 77.00 5.13 2.33
2023-07-01 1,501 8.00 0.54 -12.68
2023-06-01 1,493 -39.00 -2.55 -14.44
2023-05-01 1,532 62.00 4.22 -10.51
2023-04-01 1,470 -23.00 -1.54 -19.89
2023-03-01 1,493 -127.00 -7.84 -20.54
2023-02-01 1,620 177.00 12.27 -12.90
2023-01-01 1,443 43.00 3.07 -24.65
2022-12-01 1,400 -2.00 -0.14 -26.82
2022-11-01 1,402 -158.00 -10.13 -20.61
2022-10-01 1,560 -53.00 -3.29 -9.25
2022-09-01 1,613 71.00 4.60 -0.74
2022-08-01 1,542 -177.00 -10.30 -12.88
2022-07-01 1,719 -26.00 -1.49 4.06
2022-06-01 1,745 33.00 1.93 5.31
2022-05-01 1,712 -123.00 -6.70 1.84
2022-04-01 1,835 -44.00 -2.34 5.58
2022-03-01 1,879 19.00 1.02 8.49
2022-02-01 1,860 -55.00 -2.87 8.45
2022-01-01 1,915 2.00 0.10 1.70
2021-12-01 1,913 147.00 8.32 9.69
2021-11-01 1,766 47.00 2.73 3.03
2021-10-01 1,719 94.00 5.78 6.57
2021-09-01 1,625 -145.00 -8.19 0.06
2021-08-01 1,770 118.00 7.14 15.76
2021-07-01 1,652 -5.00 -0.30 6.86
2021-06-01 1,657 -24.00 -1.43 23.84
2021-05-01 1,681 -57.00 -3.28 33.41
2021-04-01 1,738 6.00 0.35 63.04
2021-03-01 1,732 17.00 0.99 27.54
2021-02-01 1,715 -168.00 -8.92 18.93
2021-01-01 1,883 139.00 7.97 24.95

Housing Starts

Date[4] New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units New Privately-Owned Housing Units Under Construction: Total Units
Thousands of Units SAAR M/M Y/Y Thousands of Units SAAR M/M Y/Y
2024-09-01 1,354 -0.51 -0.66 1,484 -1.85 -11.67
2024-08-01 1,361 7.84 4.29 1,512 -2.26 -10.90
2024-07-01 1,262 -5.04 -14.32 1,547 -1.46 -9.11
2024-06-01 1,329 1.06 -6.08 1,570 -1.38 -7.27
2024-05-01 1,315 -4.50 -16.93 1,592 -1.18 -5.91
2024-04-01 1,377 6.00 0.66 1,611 -1.83 -4.22
2024-03-01 1,299 -15.98 -3.20 1,641 -0.97 -2.38
2024-02-01 1,546 12.35 10.11 1,657 -0.78 -1.72
2024-01-01 1,376 -12.24 1.10 1,670 -0.54 -1.30
2023-12-01 1,568 3.84 17.01 1,679 -0.24 -0.77
2023-11-01 1,510 10.62 6.34 1,683 0.18 -0.71
2023-10-01 1,365 0.15 -5.21 1,680 0.00 -1.81
2023-09-01 1,363 4.44 -7.28 1,680 -1.00 -1.18
2023-08-01 1,305 -11.41 -14.14 1,697 -0.29 -0.12
2023-07-01 1,473 4.10 5.82 1,702 0.53 1.07
2023-06-01 1,415 -10.61 -8.24 1,693 0.06 0.24
2023-05-01 1,583 15.72 2.79 1,692 0.59 0.59
2023-04-01 1,368 1.94 -25.16 1,682 0.06 0.60
2023-03-01 1,342 -4.42 -20.02 1,681 -0.30 3.13
2023-02-01 1,404 3.16 -19.40 1,686 -0.35 6.57
2023-01-01 1,361 1.57 -20.50 1,692 0.00 9.02
2022-12-01 1,340 -5.63 -23.73 1,692 -0.18 10.95
2022-11-01 1,420 -1.39 -16.67 1,695 -0.94 13.53
2022-10-01 1,440 -2.04 -9.26 1,711 0.65 16.87
2022-09-01 1,470 -3.29 -5.95 1,700 0.06 18.14
2022-08-01 1,520 9.20 -4.70 1,699 0.89 20.50
2022-07-01 1,392 -9.73 -13.00 1,684 -0.30 21.41
2022-06-01 1,542 0.13 -5.86 1,689 0.42 23.02
2022-05-01 1,540 -15.75 -4.17 1,682 0.60 25.62
2022-04-01 1,828 8.94 22.52 1,672 2.58 26.38
2022-03-01 1,678 -3.67 0.60 1,630 3.03 24.81
2022-02-01 1,742 1.75 23.81 1,582 1.93 22.92
2022-01-01 1,712 -2.56 4.45 1,552 1.77 21.06
2021-12-01 1,757 3.11 7.46 1,525 2.14 20.94
2021-11-01 1,704 7.37 9.72 1,493 1.98 19.82
2021-10-01 1,587 1.54 2.85 1,464 1.74 19.12
2021-09-01 1,563 -2.01 6.84 1,439 2.06 17.95
2021-08-01 1,595 -0.31 13.85 1,410 1.66 16.24
2021-07-01 1,600 -2.32 5.06 1,387 1.02 15.49
2021-06-01 1,638 1.93 30.62 1,373 2.54 16.06
2021-05-01 1,607 7.71 52.61 1,339 1.21 13.47
2021-04-01 1,492 -10.55 60.26 1,323 1.30 10.71
2021-03-01 1,668 18.55 33.23 1,306 1.48 7.58
2021-02-01 1,407 -14.15 -8.46 1,287 0.39 6.10
2021-01-01 1,639 0.24 3.87 1,282 1.67 7.46

Sales

Main Article: Home Sales

House Price Developments

Historical: Case-Shiller Home Price Index: 2023

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are based on observed changes in home prices. They are designed to measure increases or decreases in the market value of residential real estate in 20 defined MSAs and three price tiers – low, middle, and high (see Tables 1 and 1a on the following pages). In contrast, the indices are, specifically, not intended to measure recovery costs after disasters, construction or repair costs, or other such related items.

The indices are calculated monthly, using a three-month moving average algorithm. Home sales pairs are accumulated in rolling three-month periods, on which the repeat sales methodology is applied. The index point for each reporting month is based on sales pairs found for that month and the preceding two months. For example, the December 2005 index point is based on repeat sales data for October, November, and December of 2005. This averaging methodology is used to offset delays that can occur in the flow of sales price data from county deed recorders and to keep sample sizes large enough to create meaningful price change averages.

Methodology: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-corelogic-cs-home-price-indices.pdf

Y/Y Change


S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index[5] S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index
Date Index M/M Y/Y Index M/M Y/Y Index M/M Y/Y
2024-09-01 324.80 -0.10 3.89
2024-08-01 325.13 -0.13 4.28
2024-07-01 325.54 0.03 4.87
2024-06-01 325.43 0.48 5.49
2024-05-01 323.86 0.93 5.99 333.21 0.99 6.81 350.60 0.98 7.65
2024-04-01 320.88 1.24 6.37 329.95 1.38 7.25 347.19 1.42 8.11
2024-03-01 316.97 1.33 6.53 325.47 1.58 7.50 342.33 1.66 8.35
2024-02-01 312.80 0.62 6.54 320.40 0.93 7.44 336.74 1.01 8.27
2024-01-01 310.88 -0.05 6.16 317.46 -0.08 6.72 333.37 0.01 7.56
2023-12-01 311.05 -0.38 5.68 317.72 -0.27 6.25 333.35 -0.16 7.13
2023-11-01 312.23 -0.24 5.18 318.58 -0.22 5.51 333.90 -0.08 6.43
2023-10-01 312.99 0.11 4.80 319.27 0.14 4.95 334.16 0.25 5.86
2023-09-01 312.63 0.27 4.06 318.81 0.25 3.97 333.34 0.35 4.87
2023-08-01 311.78 0.44 2.70 318.00 0.37 2.18 332.17 0.40 3.04
2023-07-01 310.42 0.62 1.11 316.83 0.61 0.17 330.83 0.64 0.99
2023-06-01 308.50 0.97 0.10 314.91 0.94 -1.20 328.72 0.94 -0.50
2023-05-01 305.55 1.28 -0.27 311.97 1.41 -1.72 325.67 1.41 -1.06
2023-04-01 301.68 1.39 0.02 307.64 1.62 -1.64 321.16 1.64 -1.08
2023-03-01 297.55 1.34 0.87 302.75 1.52 -1.00 315.97 1.59 -0.56
2023-02-01 293.61 0.26 2.24 298.21 0.25 0.54 311.02 0.35 0.69
2023-01-01 292.84 -0.51 3.86 297.46 -0.52 2.75 309.93 -0.39 2.77
2022-12-01 294.34 -0.85 5.66 299.02 -0.96 4.76 311.16 -0.82 4.61
2022-11-01 296.86 -0.60 7.55 301.93 -0.75 6.93 313.73 -0.62 6.54
2022-10-01 298.66 -0.59 9.14 304.20 -0.79 8.77 315.67 -0.69 8.18
2022-09-01 300.43 -1.04 10.68 306.62 -1.47 10.54 317.87 -1.40 9.83
2022-08-01 303.59 -1.12 12.95 311.20 -1.61 13.16 322.37 -1.59 12.25
2022-07-01 307.02 -0.38 15.64 316.30 -0.76 16.06 327.59 -0.84 14.94
2022-06-01 308.18 0.59 18.01 318.72 0.41 18.68 330.37 0.37 17.43
2022-05-01 306.39 1.58 19.95 317.43 1.49 20.54 329.14 1.38 19.10
2022-04-01 301.62 2.25 20.74 312.76 2.27 21.30 324.67 2.18 19.76
2022-03-01 294.98 2.72 20.79 305.80 3.10 21.23 317.75 2.87 19.60
2022-02-01 287.17 1.85 20.05 296.61 2.46 20.31 308.87 2.42 18.74
2022-01-01 281.95 1.21 19.25 289.49 1.42 18.99 301.58 1.39 17.39
2021-12-01 278.58 0.93 18.87 285.43 1.08 18.47 297.46 1.02 16.92
2021-11-01 276.01 0.87 18.81 282.38 0.96 18.26 294.46 0.91 16.82
2021-10-01 273.64 0.81 19.07 279.68 0.83 18.46 291.81 0.82 17.17
2021-09-01 271.43 0.99 19.68 277.38 0.86 19.11 289.43 0.78 17.90
2021-08-01 268.78 1.23 19.96 275.01 0.91 19.66 287.19 0.77 18.61
2021-07-01 265.50 1.66 19.83 272.53 1.48 20.02 285.00 1.31 19.21
2021-06-01 261.16 2.24 18.82 268.56 1.98 19.22 281.33 1.80 18.66
2021-05-01 255.44 2.25 16.92 263.35 2.13 17.27 276.37 1.94 16.78
2021-04-01 249.81 2.30 15.00 257.84 2.22 15.20 271.10 2.05 14.79
2021-03-01 244.21 2.09 13.49 252.24 2.31 13.54 265.67 2.13 13.18
2021-02-01 239.21 1.17 12.19 246.54 1.34 12.14 260.12 1.25 11.91
2021-01-01 236.43 0.88 11.32 243.29 0.97 11.22 256.91 0.98 11.03

Affordability

Affordability worst since the 2008 housing crisis.

Housing Inventory

Total Listings

In Thousands [6]

Active Listings

Date Active Listings[7] M/M % Y/Y %
2024-09-01 940,980 3.48 33.96
2024-08-01 909,344 2.86 35.77
2024-07-01 884,066 5.25 36.61
2024-06-01 839,992 6.64 36.73
2024-05-01 787,722 7.27 35.24
2024-04-01 734,318 5.68 30.44
2024-03-01 694,820 4.53 23.54
2024-02-01 664,716 -0.13 14.75
2024-01-01 665,569 -6.81 7.90
2023-12-01 714,176 -5.47 4.88
2023-11-01 755,489 2.36 0.71
2023-10-01 738,082 5.08 -1.95
2023-09-01 702,430 4.88 -3.97
2023-08-01 669,750 3.49 -7.85
2023-07-01 647,135 5.34 -6.44
2023-06-01 614,326 5.47 7.09
2023-05-01 582,441 3.46 21.48
2023-04-01 562,966 0.09 48.16
2023-03-01 562,444 -2.90 58.88
2023-02-01 579,264 -6.10 67.17
2023-01-01 616,865 -9.41 63.64
2022-12-01 680,925 -9.23 52.91
2022-11-01 750,200 -0.34 46.45
2022-10-01 752,741 2.90 33.06
2022-09-01 731,496 0.65 26.54
2022-08-01 726,779 5.08 26.48
2022-07-01 691,652 20.57 26.52
2022-06-01 573,650 19.64 16.49
2022-05-01 479,462 26.18 7.10
2022-04-01 379,978 7.33 -12.78
2022-03-01 354,016 2.17 -19.65
2022-02-01 346,511 -8.08 -25.47
2022-01-01 376,970 -15.35 -29.11
2021-12-01 445,303 -13.07 -27.27
2021-11-01 512,241 -9.45 -25.09
2021-10-01 565,707 -2.14 -22.93
2021-09-01 578,070 0.60 -22.86
2021-08-01 574,638 5.11 -26.29
2021-07-01 546,686 11.02 -33.56
2021-06-01 492,425 10.00 -43.50
2021-05-01 447,662 2.75 -51.78
2021-04-01 435,663 -1.12 -53.74
2021-03-01 440,589 -5.23 -52.99
2021-02-01 464,919 -12.57 -49.92
2021-01-01 531,775 -13.15 -44.12
2020-12-01 612,300 -10.46 -40.78
2020-11-01 683,822 -6.84 -40.19
2020-10-01 734,040 -2.05 -39.25
2020-09-01 749,395 -3.87 -38.82
2020-08-01 779,558 -5.26 -36.89
2020-07-01 822,834 -5.59 -33.62
2020-06-01 871,557 -6.12 -28.55
2020-05-01 928,370 -1.42 -21.39
2020-04-01 941,733 0.47 -17.19
2020-03-01 937,319 0.97 -16.01
2020-02-01 928,343 -2.45 -15.81
2020-01-01 951,675 -7.95 -14.31
2019-12-01 1,033,887 -9.57 -12.82

Morgage Purchase Index

The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.

Rent Developments

Apartment List

Historical: Apartment List National Rent: 2023

Seasonality: https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/best-time-of-year-to-rent

Date[8] Overall 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom
Rents M/M Y/Y Rents M/M Y/Y Rents M/M Y/Y
11/1/2024 1382 -0.86 -0.65 1214 -0.82 -0.65 1368 -0.80 -0.58
10/1/2024 1394 -0.71 -0.71 1224 -0.81 -0.73 1379 -0.79 -0.79
9/1/2024 1404 -0.50 -0.78 1234 -0.48 -0.72 1390 -0.50 -0.71
8/1/2024 1411 -0.14 -0.84 1240 -0.16 -0.80 1397 -0.14 -0.78
7/1/2024 1413 0.21 -0.84 1242 0.24 -0.80 1399 0.21 -0.78
6/1/2024 1410 0.43 -0.77 1239 0.41 -0.80 1396 0.43 -0.78
5/1/2024 1404 0.50 -0.78 1234 0.57 -0.72 1390 0.58 -0.71
4/1/2024 1397 0.58 -0.71 1227 0.57 -0.73 1382 0.51 -0.79
3/1/2024 1389 0.65 -0.79 1220 0.58 -0.81 1375 0.66 -0.79
2/1/2024 1380 0.22 -0.86 1213 0.25 -0.82 1366 0.22 -0.87
1/1/2024 1377 -0.22 -0.86 1210 -0.25 -0.82 1363 -0.22 -0.87
12/1/2023 1380 -0.79 -0.93 1213 -0.74 -0.90 1366 -0.73 -0.94
11/1/2023 1391 -0.93 -1.07 1222 -0.89 -1.05 1376 -1.01 -1.15
10/1/2023 1404 -0.78 -1.27 1233 -0.80 -1.28 1390 -0.71 -1.28
9/1/2023 1415 -0.56 -1.39 1243 -0.56 -1.43 1400 -0.57 -1.48
8/1/2023 1423 -0.14 -1.32 1250 -0.16 -1.34 1408 -0.14 -1.33
7/1/2023 1425 0.28 -0.84 1252 0.24 -0.87 1410 0.21 -0.91
6/1/2023 1421 0.42 -0.14 1249 0.48 -0.08 1407 0.50 -0.07
5/1/2023 1415 0.57 0.86 1243 0.57 0.89 1400 0.50 0.86
4/1/2023 1407 0.50 1.66 1236 0.49 1.64 1393 0.51 1.75
3/1/2023 1400 0.57 2.34 1230 0.57 2.33 1386 0.58 2.36
2/1/2023 1392 0.22 2.65 1223 0.25 2.60 1378 0.22 2.68
1/1/2023 1389 -0.29 2.97 1220 -0.33 2.95 1375 -0.29 3.00
12/1/2022 1393 -0.92 3.49 1224 -0.89 3.55 1379 -0.93 3.53
11/1/2022 1406 -1.13 4.07 1235 -1.12 4.04 1392 -1.14 4.11
10/1/2022 1422 -0.91 5.41 1249 -0.95 5.40 1408 -0.91 5.47
9/1/2022 1435 -0.49 7.25 1261 -0.47 7.23 1421 -0.42 7.33
8/1/2022 1442 0.35 10.08 1267 0.32 10.08 1427 0.28 10.02
7/1/2022 1437 0.98 12.35 1263 1.04 12.47 1423 1.07 12.49
6/1/2022 1423 1.43 14.39 1250 1.46 14.36 1408 1.44 14.29
5/1/2022 1403 1.37 15.76 1232 1.32 15.68 1388 1.39 15.67
4/1/2022 1384 1.17 16.60 1216 1.16 16.70 1369 1.11 16.61
3/1/2022 1368 0.88 17.02 1202 0.84 17.04 1354 0.89 17.03
2/1/2022 1356 0.52 17.30 1192 0.59 17.44 1342 0.52 17.31
1/1/2022 1349 0.22 17.51 1185 0.25 17.56 1335 0.23 17.52
12/1/2021 1346 -0.37 17.76 1182 -0.42 17.73 1332 -0.37 17.77
11/1/2021 1351 0.15 17.89 1187 0.17 17.87 1337 0.15 17.80
10/1/2021 1349 0.82 17.20 1185 0.77 17.09 1335 0.83 17.11
9/1/2021 1338 2.14 15.84 1176 2.17 15.86 1324 2.08 15.73
8/1/2021 1310 2.42 13.32 1151 2.49 13.29 1297 2.53 13.37
7/1/2021 1279 2.81 10.93 1123 2.74 10.86 1265 2.68 10.87
6/1/2021 1244 2.64 8.36 1093 2.63 8.43 1232 2.67 8.45
5/1/2021 1212 2.11 5.21 1065 2.21 5.24 1200 2.21 5.26
4/1/2021 1187 1.54 2.50 1042 1.46 2.46 1174 1.47 2.44
3/1/2021 1169 1.12 0.52 1027 1.18 0.49 1157 1.14 0.52
2/1/2021 1156 0.70 -0.17 1015 0.69 -0.29 1144 0.70 -0.26
1/1/2021 1148 0.44 -0.52 1008 0.40 -0.59 1136 0.44 -0.53
12/1/2020 1143 -0.26 -0.87 1004 -0.30 -0.89 1131 -0.35 -0.96
11/1/2020 1146 -0.43 -0.87 1007 -0.49 -0.89 1135 -0.44 -0.79
10/1/2020 1151 -0.35 -0.95 1012 -0.30 -0.88 1140 -0.35 -0.87
9/1/2020 1155 -0.09 -1.11 1015 -0.10 -1.07 1144 0.00 -1.04
8/1/2020 1156 0.26 -1.37 1016 0.30 -1.36 1144 0.26 -1.38
7/1/2020 1153 0.44 -1.54 1013 0.50 -1.55 1141 0.44 -1.55
6/1/2020 1148 -0.35 -1.46 1008 -0.40 -1.47 1136 -0.35 -1.47
5/1/2020 1152 -0.52 -0.26 1012 -0.49 -0.30 1140 -0.52 -0.26
4/1/2020 1158 -0.43 1.14 1017 -0.49 1.09 1146 -0.43 1.15
3/1/2020 1163 0.43 2.38 1022 0.39 2.40 1151 0.35 2.40
2/1/2020 1158 0.35 2.57 1018 0.39 2.62 1147 0.44 2.69
1/1/2020 1154 0.09 2.58 1014 0.10 2.53 1142 0.00 2.51
12/1/2019 1153 -0.26 2.40 1013 -0.30 2.43 1142 -0.17 2.51
11/1/2019 1156 -0.52 2.48 1016 -0.49 2.52 1144 -0.52 2.51
10/1/2019 1162 -0.51 2.56 1021 -0.49 2.51 1150 -0.52 2.50
9/1/2019 1168 -0.34 2.73 1026 -0.39 2.70 1156 -0.34 2.66
8/1/2019 1172 0.09 2.81 1030 0.10 2.90 1160 0.09 2.84
7/1/2019 1171 0.52 2.99 1029 0.59 3.00 1159 0.52 3.02
6/1/2019 1165 0.87 3.10 1023 0.79 3.13 1153 0.87 3.13
5/1/2019 1155 0.87 3.13 1015 0.89 3.15 1143 0.88 3.16
4/1/2019 1145 0.79 3.34 1006 0.80 3.39 1133 0.80 3.28
3/1/2019 1136 0.62 3.46 998 0.60 3.42 1124 0.63 3.40
2/1/2019 1129 0.36 3.48 992 0.30 3.55 1117 0.27 3.52
1/1/2019 1125 -0.09 3.40 989 0.00 3.45 1114 0.00 3.44
12/1/2018 1126 -0.18 3.30 989 -0.20 3.34 1114 -0.18 3.24
11/1/2018 1128 -0.44 3.11 991 -0.50 3.12 1116 -0.53 3.05
10/1/2018 1133 -0.35 3.09 996 -0.30 3.11 1122 -0.36 3.13
9/1/2018 1137 -0.26 2.99 999 -0.20 2.99 1126 -0.18 3.11
8/1/2018 1140 0.26 2.98 1001 0.20 2.98 1128 0.27 3.01
7/1/2018 1137 0.62 2.34 999 0.71 2.36 1125 0.63 2.37
6/1/2018 1130 0.89 2.17 992 0.81 2.16 1118 0.90 2.19
5/1/2018 1120 1.08 2.10 984 1.13 2.07 1108 1.00 2.03
4/1/2018 1108 0.91 2.40 973 0.83 2.31 1097 0.92 2.43
3/1/2018 1098 0.64 2.14 965 0.73 2.22 1087 0.74 2.16
2/1/2018 1091 0.28 1.87 958 0.21 1.91 1079 0.19 1.79
1/1/2018 1088 -0.18 1.68 956 -0.10 1.70 1077 -0.19 1.70
12/1/2017 1090 -0.37 957 -0.42 1079 -0.37
11/1/2017 1094 -0.45 961 -0.52 1083 -0.46
10/1/2017 1099 -0.45 966 -0.41 1088 -0.37
9/1/2017 1104 -0.27 970 -0.21 1092 -0.27
8/1/2017 1107 -0.36 972 -0.41 1095 -0.36
7/1/2017 1111 0.45 976 0.51 1099 0.46
6/1/2017 1106 0.82 971 0.73 1094 0.74
5/1/2017 1097 1.39 964 1.37 1086 1.40
4/1/2017 1082 0.65 951 0.74 1071 0.66
3/1/2017 1075 0.37 944 0.43 1064 0.38
2/1/2017 1071 0.09 940 0.00 1060 0.09
1/1/2017 1070 940 1059

[8]

November 2024

The national median rent dipped by 0.8% in November, as we get further into the slow season for the rental market. Nationwide rent fell $12 to $1,382, and we’re likely to see that number dip one more time before the year ends.[8]

  • Rents are down 0.8% month-over-month, down 0.6% year-over-year
  • By November 2024, vacancy rate is back up to 6.8 percent, matching the level that it jumped to in the early months of the pandemic.
  • Rents are down month-over-month in 88 of 100 largest cities, down year-over-year in 47

October 2024

The national median rent dipped by 0.7% in October, as we get further into the slow season for the rental market. The median monthly rent nationally fell by $10, putting it at $1,394, and we’re likely to see that number continue to dip modestly through the remainder of the year.

  • Rents are down 0.7% month-over-month, also down 0.7% year-over-year
  • In October, our vacancy rate ticked up to 6.8 percent, matching the level that it jumped to in the early months of the pandemic.
  • Rents are down month-over-month in 89 of 100 largest cities, down year-over-year in 51

September 2024

The national median rent dipped by 0.5% in September, as we turn the corner into the slow season for the rental market. The median rent nationally now stands at $1,405, and we’re likely to see that number continue to dip modestly through the remainder of the year.[8]

  • Rents are down 0.5% month-over-month, down 0.7% year-over-year
  • As of September, our vacancy index sits at 6.7 percent, the highest level since August 2020.
  • Rents are down month-over-month in 80 of 100 largest cities, down year-over-year in 51

August 2024

Rents decrease of -0.1% in August, and today the nationwide median rent stands at $1,412. This signals the end of the rental market’s annual busy season, as well as the second consecutive summer of modest rent growth, as the market remains sluggish thanks to a windfall of new supply. If historical trends hold, rents will continue to fall on a monthly basis for the remainder of the year.[8]

  • Rents are down 0.1% month-over-month, down 0.7% year-over-year
  • On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index remains slightly elevated, currently standing at 6.7 percent.
  • 59 of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw rents fall in August, in line with the broader national trend. And on a year-over-year basis, rent growth is negative for 52 of these cities.

July 2024

Rent prices ticked up for the sixth straight month, but rent growth over the course of 2024 as a whole remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market. And while month-over-month rent growth remains positive, it is decelerating. Prices increased just 0.2% in July and today the nationwide median rent stands at $1,414. It is very possible that rent growth will turn flat or negative in August, and stay there for the remainder of the year.[8]

  • Rents are up 0.2% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year
  • Through July, our vacancy index sits at 6.7 percent, the highest reading since August 2020.
  • ationwide rent growth was positive in July 2024, so too was it positive in the majority of large cities across the country; 72 of the nation’s largest 100 cities saw prices rise month-over-month.

June 2024

The national median rent increased by 0.4% in June and now stands at $1,411, but the pace of growth slowed slightly this month. This is typically the time of year when rent growth is accelerating amid the busy moving season, so sluggish growth this month indicates that the market is headed for another slow summer.[8]

  • Rents are up 0.4% month-over-month, down 0.7% year-over-year
  • As of June, our vacancy index sits at 6.7 percent, the highest reading since August 2020.
  • As nationwide rent growth was positive in June, so too was local rent growth in the majority of large cities across the county. 80 of the nation’s largest 100 cities saw prices rise month-over-month.

May 2024

Rent prices ticked up for the fourth straight month, but rent growth over the course of 2024 as a whole remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market. The national median rent increased by 0.5% in May and now stands at $1,404

  • Rents are up 0.5% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year
  • Vacancy index sits at 6.7 percent, the highest reading since August 2020. And there’s good reason to expect that it could rise even further during the remainder of the year. Despite a recent slowdown in new permits being issued and new construction projects breaking ground, the number of multifamily units under construction remains near record levels.
  • Rents up month-over-month in 80 of 100 largest cities, up year-over-year in 43

April 2024

Rent prices ticked up for the third straight month, but rent growth remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market. The national median rent increased by 0.5% in April and now stands at $1,396. [8]

  • Rents are up 0.5% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year.
  • The national vacancy index continues trending up and stands today at 6.7 percent. After a historic tightening in 2021, multifamily occupancy has been slowly but consistently easing for over two years.
  • 83 of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw rents go up in April. But on a year-over-year basis, rent growth is positive for only 43 of these cities

March 2024

The rental market continued to pull out of its slow season in March; prices ticked up 0.6 percent this month, the second consecutive monthly increase following six straight months of rent declines. The nationwide median rent now stands at $1,388.[8]

  • Rents are up 0.6% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year. Year-to-date, the national median rent is up by a total of 0.9% so far in 2024, which is slightly faster than the 2017 to 2019 average (+0.7%).
  • On the supply side of the market, our national vacancy index continues trending up and stands today at 6.7 percent.
  • Zooming in a bit, 81 of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw rents go up in March. But on a year-over-year basis, rent growth is positive for only 42 of these cities.

February 2024

The rental market turned a corner in February; after six consecutive months of rent declines, prices ticked up 0.2 percent this month and today the nationwide median rent stands at $1,377. The rental market turned a corner in February; after six consecutive months of rent declines, prices ticked up 0.2 percent this month and today the nationwide median rent stands at $1,377.[8]

  • Rents are up 0.2% month-over-month, down 1.0% year-over-year
  • Zooming in a bit, 57 of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw rents go up in February. But on a year-over-year basis, rent growth is positive for only 43 of these cities. Many of the steepest year-over-year declines remain concentrated in Sun Belt cities that are rapidly expanding their multifamily inventory, such as Austin (-6.7 percent year-over-year), Atlanta (-5.3 percent), and Nashville (-5.1 percent).
  • On the supply side of the market, our national vacancy index continues trending up and stands today at 6.6 percent.

January 2024

The rental market kicked off the new year with a sixth straight month of negative rent growth, as the nationwide median rent fell by 0.3 percent to $1,373. The recent declines are in line with the rental market’s typical seasonal pattern, as fewer renters are looking to move in the fall and winter, although this year’s dip has been a bit sharper and more prolonged than what we normally see.[8]

  • Rents are down 0.3% month-over-month, down 1% year-over-year
  • Even though the timing of the recent slowdown has been in line with what we typically expect, its magnitude has been a bit more pronounced. The nation’s median rent has fallen by a total of 3.5 percent since last summer’s peak, the second sharpest seasonal dip that we’ve seen in the history of our index (going back to 2017).
  • On the supply side of the market, our national vacancy index stands at 6.5 percent, slightly higher than the pre-pandemic average. After a historic tightening in 2021, multifamily occupancy rates have been slowly but consistently easing for over two years. And with this year expected to bring the most new apartment completions in decades, we expect that there will continue to be an abundance of vacant units on the market in the year ahead.
  • Regionally, rents fell in January in 73 of the nation’s 100 largest cities, and prices are down year-over-year in 53 of these 100 cities.

Zillow

June 2024

May 2024

  • Asking rents increased by 0.6% month over month in April. The pre-pandemic average for this time of year is 0.7% growth.[9]
  • Rents are now up 3.6% from last year.
  • Rents are up from year-ago levels in 48 of the 50 largest metro areas. Annual rent increases are highest in Providence (7.7%), Louisville (7%), Buffalo (6.5%), Cleveland (6.5%) and Hartford (6.2%).

April 2024

The typical U.S. rent is now only a whisker away from $2,000, at $1,997, according to the Zillow Observed Rent Index. [10]

  • U.S. rents continued to tick up in April. Rents grew 0.6% month over month, slightly slower than the pre-pandemic average for this time of year of 0.7%
  • U.S. rents are now up 3.6% from last year. Since the beginning of the pandemic, rents have increased by 31.4%.
  • The share of median household income spent on typical rent has moderated slightly to 29.2%, down from a recent peak of 30.3% in June 2022 but still a ways above 27.6% needed before the pandemic.
  • Multifamily rents grew 0.631% in April, while single-family rents grew 0.625%. Still, multifamily rents have grown only 2.8% over the past year, well below the 4.8% year-over-year growth seen in single-family rentals in April and softer than multifamily pre-pandemic norms
  • The income needed to comfortably afford rent increased by 3.7% year over year in April to $79,889.

Forecasts

2024

Zillow:

April 2024: Zillow’s home value forecast calls for 1.9% growth over 2024 – slower than long-term norms but a welcome slowdown for first-time buyers compared to the rapid appreciation seen over the pandemic. This is an upward revision from last month’s outlook, which projected growth of 0.9%. With interest rates still elevated, the modest upward revision is mostly the result of a slowdown in the growth of new for-sale listings. After rising at an annual pace of 21% in February, the year-over-year increase in new listings eased in March to just 4%, indicating that the market remains quite tight for would-be homebuyers. It remains to be seen how new listings will fare in April – the Easter holiday falling in March and the fact that February was a leap year are likely clouding the broader picture.

Zillow’s expectation for home sales was revised slightly downward this month as elevated mortgage rates continue to limit housing demand and sales volume. Zillow’s forecast now calls for 4.06 million existing home sales in 2024, slightly below both 2023’s level of 4.09 million and the previous forecast of 4.1 million existing home sales this year. Even after a better-than-expected sales count reading in February, leading indicators of home sales in the coming months suggest continued softness.[11]

References