Producer Price Index: 2023

Developments

Producer Price Index	Actual^[1]	Forecast(Y/Y)^[1]	Previous(Y/Y)^[1]	M/M^[2]	Forecast(M/M)^[2]	Previous(M/M)^[2]	Release Date
2023 December
2023 November	0.90%	1.00%	1.20%	0.00%	0.10%	-0.40%	December 13
2023 October	1.30%	1.90%	2.20%	-0.50%	0.10%	0.40%	November 15
2023 September	2.20%	1.60%	2.00%	0.50%	0.30%	0.70%	October 11
2023 August	1.60%	1.20%	0.80%	0.70%	0.40%	0.40%	September 14
2023 July	0.80%	0.70%	0.20%	0.30%	0.20%	0.00%	August 11
2023 June	0.10%	0.40%	0.90%	0.10%	0.20%	-0.40%	July 13
2023 May	1.10%	1.50%	2.30%	-0.30%	-0.10%	0.20%	June 14
2023 April	2.30%	2.40%	2.70%	0.20%	0.30%	-0.40%	May 11
2023 March	2.70%	3.00%	4.90%	-0.50%	0.10%	0.00%	April 13
2023 February	4.60%	5.40%	5.70%	-0.10%	0.30%	0.30%	Mar 15
2023 January	6.00%	5.40%	6.50%	0.70%	0.40%	-0.20%	Feb 16
2022 December	6.20%	6.80%	7.30%	-0.50%	-0.10%	0.20%	Jan 18

February Producer Price Index was encouraging. It fell 0.1%, versus 0.3% increase in January and against the estimate for a 0.3% increase. Year-on-year, PPI rose 4.6% in the month, versus 5.7% in January and below the 5.4% estimate.
Core PPI rose 0.2% in February, compared to 0.5% gain in January. On a yearly basis, core PPI was up 4.4% versus analyst's estimate of 5.2% and 4.4% prior.
The decline in headline PPI stemmed from a 0.2% drop in goods prices. Goods prices had risen by 1.2% in January.
Many items from the PPI report are used to calculate the personal consumption expenditures(PCE) — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation^[3].

The U.S producer price index(PPI) dropped 0.5% month-over-month in March compared to expectations for prices to be flat^[4].
Core PPI declined 0.1% month-over-month, way better than the 0.2% expected increase.
Year-over-year, PPI rose 2.7% in March versus 4.9% year-over-year increase in February.
The decline in PPI was mainly attributed to the 1% drop in the prices of final demand goods^[5].

The producer price index increased 0.2% in April, below 0.3% estimate.
Core PPI also increased 0.2% , in-line with estimates.
Yearly, headline PPI rose 2.3%, below the 2.4% estimate and 2.7% growth in March.
80% of the rise in PPI was attributed to the 0.3% rise in prices for final demand services^[6].

The producer price index declined by 0.3% in May, more than the 0.1% decline expected by Dow Jones.
Core PPI rose 0.2% in line with the estimates.
The decline in PPI was mainly attributed to the 1.6% decline in prices for final demand goods^[7].
Year-over-year, PPI rose 1.1% in May versus 1.50% expected^[8].

The producer price index(PPI) rose 0.1% in June, below the expected 0.2% increase.
Year-over-year, producer price index rose 0.1% versus expectations for a 0.4% increase.
Core PPI rose 0.1% in June versus expectations for a 0.2% increase.
Year-over-year, core PPI rose 2.4% below expectations for a 2.6% increase and also the smallest gain since January 2021^[9].
Prices for final demand goods were flat in June.
The increase in PPI can be traced to a 0.2% rise in prices for final demand services^[10].

The producer price index(PPI) rose 0.3% in July, slightly above the 0.2% estimate^[11].
Yearly, PPI rose 0.8%, also slightly above the 0.7% estimate.
Core PPI was up 0.3% versus 0.2% estimate.
Yearly, core PPI was up 2.4% versus 2.3% estimate.
The increase in PPI was mainly attributed to services, which rose 0.5% for the month, the largest increase since August 2022.

August producer price index(PPI) rose 0.7% from a month earlier^[12], exceeding estimate for a 0.4% increase^[13].
Yearly, PPI rose 1.6%, also exceeding estimate for a 1.2% rise.
Core PPI increased 0.2%, in-line with the estimate.
Year-over-year, core PPI rose 2.2%, also in-line with the estimate.
The increase in PPI was mainly attributed to energy prices which rose 10.5% in August(July:+0.8%).
The prices for final demand goods rose 2% on the month while services prices rose 0.2%.

September producer price index(PPI) rose 0.5% from a month earlier^[12], exceeding estimate for a 0.3% increase^[14].
Yearly, PPI rose 2.2%, also exceeding estimate for a 1.6% rise and August's 2.0% (revised up from 1.6%).
Core PPI rose 0.3%, above 0.2% estimate.
The increase in PPE came mainly from final demand goods, which rose 0.9% on the month.
Services grew 0.3% in September.
The rise in goods prices was mainly contributed by gasoline prices, which rose 5.4%.

October producer price index(PPI) fell 0.5%^[15], the largest decrease since April and compared to +0.1% estimate^[16] and 0.4% growth in September (revised down from 0.5%).
Yearly, PPI rose 1.3%, below 1.9% estimate and lower than 2.2% in September.
Core PPI was flat month-over-month versus +0.3% estimate.
Yearly, core PPI rose 2.4%, below +2.7% estimate.
Over 80% of the decline in headline PPI was due to a 15.3% drop in the price of gasoline.
Services costs were flat month-over-month after rising for six consecutive months.

Producer Price Index (PPI) was flat in November^[17] as was expected^[18].
On a yearly basis, PPI rose 0.9%, lower than 1.0% estimate and 1.2% in October (revised down from 1.3%).
Core PPI was also flat in November versus forecast for a 0.2% increase.
Yearly, core PPI rose 2%, lower than 2.2% estimate.
Services index was unchanged in November, the same as in October.
Energy prices fell 1.2% in November.

Producer Price Index (PPI) declined -0.1% m/m, 0.1% was expected
On a yearly basis, PPI rose 1%, lower than 1.3% estimate but higher than 0.8% in November (revised down from 0.9%).
Core PPI was also flat in November versus forecast for a 0.2% increase.
Yearly, core PPI rose 1.8%, lower than 1.9% estimate.
Services index was unchanged in December, the same as in November
Energy prices fell 1.2% in December