Sixt:Quarterly Results/2024 Q4

Management Guidance and Analysts Estimates

The management expects a significant growth in consolidated revenue in 2024.
The management guides for 2024 EBT of around EUR 340 million. Based on this, management is guiding Q4 EBT of EUR 58 million (+12.3% y/y).

Key Items^[1]	Q4 2024	Y/Y	2025	Y/Y
Revenue	EUR 919.6 million	5.6%	EUR 4,236 million	7.3%
EBT	EUR 56.3 million	8.9%	EUR 464 million	37.2%

Buy, €96->€102: Analyst Michael Kuhn of Deutsche Bank said the market is positive but the management's initial outlook for 2025 is likely to be cautious.

Buy, €90: Analyst Christian Obst of Baader Bank expects Sixt to increase its EBT in 2025 since most of the 2024 burdens are now likely to reduce.
Buy, €135: Warburg Research said Sixt is one of their "Best Ideas 2025". They expect growth in the high single-digit percentage range in 2025 and 2026 due to further expansion in USA and European countries.

Buy, €110: Jefferies said conditions for medium-sized European companies (midcaps) are now favorable. They expect enormous valuation potential, especially for cyclical companies since it's unlikely that there will be a "hard landing". They said they remain positive on Sixt.

Analyst Dirk Schlamp of DZ Bank said the sale of 600,000 shares at a discount by an investor is unlikely to alter the investment thesis or analysts consensus estimates. He suspects profit taking since the shares had risen by 22% since the beginning of December.

Sixt won Booking.com Traveler Review Award.
Two months ago, Sixt signed a multi-million euro agreement with BMW Italia to add new BMW models to the fleet. That's 40% increased from last year.

Key Items	Q4 2024 Actual^[2]	Y/Y	Q4 2024 Analysts estimate^[3]
Revenue	$2.71 billion	-2%	$2.73 billion
EPS	-$0.23		-$0.96
Revenue-international	$593 million	-1%	$626.17 million
Revenue-Americas	$2.12 billion	-2%	$2.12 billion
Vehicle utilization-international	68.3%	2.6 pps	70.5%
Vehicle utilization-Americas	67.4%	2.4 pps	67%
Per-unit fleet cost per month-international	$304	4%	$311.8
Per-unit fleet cost per month-Americas	$430	58%	$386.4
Revenue-per day	$64.79	-2%
Revenue-per day-Americas	$68.64	-2.7%	$67.89
Revenue-per day-international	$54.15	0%
Vehicle depreciation and lease charges	$801 million	37.6%
Vehicle depreciation and lease-Americas	$643 million	51.6%
Vehicle depreciation and lease-international	$159 million	0.6%

Here are the main insights from Avis's Q4 2024 earnings call transcript:

CEO Joseph Ferraro said demand was strong during the quarter, thanks to the Thanksgiving and December holidays.
Ferraro added that they saw a continuation of a strong leisure demand in January, associated with longer holiday season and robust MLK weekend.
Ferraro pointed out that the extra day last year and the calendar switch of Easter will impact Q1.

Pricing

Ferraro said pricing was down 2% y/y but improved sequentially throughout the quarter, with December finishing flat y/y.
CFO Izilda Martins said they expect revenue per day in Q1 to be down slightly y/y, with improvements towards the end of April.

Martins said the straight-line depreciation curve is steeper than initially modeled.
Martins said they also expected elevated monthly depreciation levels in the first quarter of 2025 but a normalization in Q2.

Ferraro said tariffs could benefit them since elevated new car prices will drive up demand for used prices.

Avis projected adjusted EBITDA of no less than $1 billion for 2025, that is a 59% y/y increase.

Key items	Q4 2024 Actual^[4]	Y/Y Growth	Q4 2024 Analysts estimate^[5]
Revenue	$2.04 billion	-6.6%	$2.12 billion
Adjusted EPS	-$1.18		-$0.72
Revenue per day (Pricing)	$57.10	-2%
Fleet utilization	79%
Americas segment revenue	$1.7 billion	-8%
International segment revenue	$371 million	-2%
Americas RPD (pricing)	$57.06	-3%
International pricing	$57.26	2%
Fleet interest expense per unit per month	$2
Depreciation Per Unit Per Month	$422	-16%

Here is the summary for Hertz Q4 2024 earnings call;

CEO Gil West said pricing was down 1% y/y in Q4 but there was a 150 basis points improvement from Q3.
CCO Sandeep Dube said they will continue to focus on high revenue per user (RPU) segments, hence their fleet in Q1 is likely to be smaller.

Gil West said strong demand continued into Q1, thanks to MLK and upcoming President's Day.

Gil West said at the end of 2024, over 60% of their fleet comprised of vehicles one year old or less.

CFO Scott Haralson said the decline in Q4 revenue was largely driven by a decrease in volume, that they remain discipline on capacity and driving utilization.
The company incurred a $1 billion non-cash asset impairment charge in Q4 due to a decline in fleet residual values.
Scott said their liquidity remains strong at $1.8 billion.

Scott said used vehicle prices dropped below the forecasted values in Q4 , driving their depreciation numbers above the top-end of their guided range.
They expect depreciation in Q1 to remain inflated but to move down towards the $300 gross DPU target (Q4 2024: $347) as we progress towards the end of the year.
Scott said they have seen good trending in used car prices as they entered into 2025 and going forward, they are stabilizing.