The Conference Board Employment Trends Index: Difference between revisions

<blockquote>“Over the last six months, payroll employment growth was almost entirely driven by healthcare and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, and government. Employment growth in these industries is less likely to be impacted by a recession, given acute labor shortages. Job growth in other industries has been flat or negative. Elsewhere, we see clear signs of cooling with several component indicators of the ETI pointing to loosening labor demand. The number of employees working in '''temporary help services'''—an important early indicator for hiring in other industries—resumed its decline in November from its peak in March 2022. '''Initial claims for unemployment insurance''' increased for a second consecutive month in November, though they remain low historically. From The Conference Board ''Consumer Confidence Survey®'',  the share of respondents that '''reported jobs were hard to get''' reached its highest level since March 2021, while a smaller share of small firms reported difficulties hiring. Looking ahead, we project that job growth will continue slowing and forecast job losses will start in the second quarter of 2024, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3 percent by the second half of 2024."</blockquote>