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Alphabet:Position Changes: Difference between revisions
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(Created page with "== 2023 February 3 == I reduced the alphabet position by %. Reasons") |
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I reduced the alphabet position by %. | I reduced the alphabet position by %. | ||
Reasons | Reasons: | ||
* Alphabet is facing potential long term disruptions to it's search business model by both generative ("ChatGPT") and discovery Ais. ("Reels", "TikTok") | |||
* Valuation of approx. 22.5 times current P/E or 20 times adjusted for their excess cash seems high in current interest, macro and competition environment. | |||
* We don't see a very clear path to neither revenue growth or meaningful cost reductions in the short run. | |||
* Alphabet's high revenue and market capitalization base makes longterm growth harder than in the past. The market might increasingly saturate. | |||
* Market Sentiment seems too positive at the moment. E.g. 2 Year yields at little over 4% seem too low. As the labor market stays strong we expect higher interest rates for longer. | |||
* There might be a narrative flip against Alphabet at one point e.g. if competitive dangers gain traction. | |||
* There might be a better buying opportunity in the $60-$80 range. | |||