3,882
edits
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 January: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 January (view source)
Revision as of 18:53, 13 February 2023
, 13 February 2023→Summary
| Line 2: | Line 2: | ||
== Summary == | == Summary == | ||
January 2023 inflation forecasts are expecting a continuing decline in inflation Y/Y to 6.2%, this is mostly in line short term drivers' trends. However, there are 2 points to remain cautious tomorrow: | |||
* There will be a change in methodology, which could create a big miss tomorrow: "Starting with January 2023 data, the BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using two years of expenditure data."<ref>https://www.bls.gov/cpi/</ref> | |||
* January 2023 saw a small acceleration in used car prices, energy/gasoline, and stabilization in housing, this could offset some of the disinflationary trends in goods and the small decline in wages. | |||
Before CPI, market is pricing a 90% probability of a 0.25 bps rate hike in March meeting. | Before CPI, market is pricing a 90% probability of a 0.25 bps rate hike in March meeting. | ||
| Line 9: | Line 14: | ||
* Core CPI: 5.4% - 5.7% | * Core CPI: 5.4% - 5.7% | ||
If <6. | If <6.1% could see a rally 4% | ||
if >6.5% could see a big drop | if >6.5% could see a big drop 5% | ||
== CPI expectations == | == CPI expectations == | ||