Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 January: Difference between revisions

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 January (view source)

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 === Assessment ===
+As expected the January CPI 2023 was driven mostly by:
+* Shelter inflation due to the lags
+* Energy prices increasing in January
+* Core goods even though declining Y/Y, saw an increase to 0.1% m/m, after being negative for the past 4 months.
+This could be the first signal that the large negative contributions that energy and goods had on inflation in past months are likely to stabilize or even become positive in the coming months. If this is the case, continue large declines in CPI will rely on services inflation, which in turn mostly depends in the labor data.
+January report is our opinion don't change the trajectory the FED is most likely take from now on.
 ==CPI expectations==