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Economic Outlook: Difference between revisions
→4. New orders
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New orders are a leading indicator of production in that they measure future demand and production requirements. Enterprises may meet orders through: their own production processes; by sub-contracting some or all of the production process or through the resale of goods purchased.<ref>https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=4363#:~:text=New%20orders%20are%20a%20leading,future%20demand%20and%20production%20requirements.</ref> | New orders are a leading indicator of production in that they measure future demand and production requirements. Enterprises may meet orders through: their own production processes; by sub-contracting some or all of the production process or through the resale of goods purchased.<ref>https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=4363#:~:text=New%20orders%20are%20a%20leading,future%20demand%20and%20production%20requirements.</ref> | ||
Current data: | |||
# The ISM Manufacturing New Orders subindex in the United States decreased to | # The ISM Manufacturing New Orders subindex in the United States decreased to 42.50 points in January of 2023 from 45.1 in December. It is the lowest reading since May of 2020 at the height of the covid pandemic. <ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-new-orders</ref> | ||
# The ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders subindex in the United States | # The ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders subindex in the United States increased to a four-month high of 60.40 points in January, rebounding from 45.20 points in December of 2022. <ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-non-manufacturing-new-orders</ref> | ||
# New orders for manufactured durable goods in | # New orders for manufactured durable goods in December, up four of the last five months, increased $15.3 billion or 5.6 percent to $286.9 billion. This followed a 1.7 percent November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent. <ref>https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf</ref> | ||
The current data in new orders is in the contracting territory for manufacturing but not for services, however, both are in a downtrend. This points to weaker and contracting future output or production, especially in the manufacturing sector. New orders is considered more of a short term leading indicator, so we can expect the weakness to materialize in production in Q1/Q2 2023. | |||
=== 5. Jobless Claims === | === 5. Jobless Claims === | ||