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Upwork:Position Changes: Difference between revisions
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''Return to: [[Investment Ideas]] | [[Upwork]]'' | ''Return to: [[Investment Ideas]] | [[Upwork]]'' | ||
== 2023 February 22 == | |||
I increased the position by another 22.5% @11.80USD or approx. 1.56billion market cap for the following reasons | |||
* I think Upwork is currently undervalued at approx. 2.2 times forward 2023 sales given its margin profile and growth outlook. | |||
* I think it is plausible that Upwork can eventually profit from corporate cost cuts and a rebound after a possible recession see: [[Upwork:Quarterly_Results/2022_Q4]] | |||
* The Upwork Earnings call hinted at a multitude of operating improvements and a restructuring towards a business unit structure with the goals to further accountability and independence which is the right step in my opinion. | |||
* Upwork's take rate continues to be significantly lower compared to the competition from the likes of Fiverr. Therefore I expect some further growth of Upworks project catalog offering. | |||
* Upwork could already achieve a considerably higher adjusted EBITDA with lower marketing spend. They have the flexibility to cut back spending in case of stronger-than-expected revenue headwinds. | |||
* Fiverrs latest quarterly results and better-than-expected adjusted EBITDA projections draw attention to cost-cutting potentials for digital businesses like Upwork. | |||
In case Upwork stock continues it's downward trend I plan to increase the position further at slightly above $10, approx. 8$ (?) and $6 price levels. | |||
While I think a retest of the $10 price level is not unlikely I don't think the likelihood of seeing a $6 price point is all too high. | |||
If we would see those price points though I am prepared to increase the position significantly. | |||
== 2023 February 15 == | == 2023 February 15 == | ||