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Commercial Real Estate: Europe: Difference between revisions
→European Systemic Risks Board Report[8]
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* In most countries default rates for CRE loans are higher than those for the stock of loans in other segments of the economy. Germany share of CRE NPLs is 30%, with a 10% exposure of total loans. EU at 15% share. | * In most countries default rates for CRE loans are higher than those for the stock of loans in other segments of the economy. Germany share of CRE NPLs is 30%, with a 10% exposure of total loans. EU at 15% share. | ||
* Investment funds act as buyers in the bulk of CRE transactions, with a share of around 50%. Private investors account for just over 30% of total transaction value, followed by insurers and pension funds, which account for about 10%. Banks only account for a very small share. | * Investment funds act as buyers in the bulk of CRE transactions, with a share of around 50%. Private investors account for just over 30% of total transaction value, followed by insurers and pension funds, which account for about 10%. Banks only account for a very small share. | ||
* Banks are then exposed to CRE markets (i) via credit risk on CRE loans and changes in values of CRE collateral and (ii) as lenders for investment funds. | * [[File:CRE3.PNG|thumb|Distribution of current LTV ratios]]Banks are then exposed to CRE markets (i) via credit risk on CRE loans and changes in values of CRE collateral and (ii) as lenders for investment funds. | ||
* Looking at total exposures (investment in CRE and CRE loans) by investor type, banks have the highest exposure to CRE in most countries. | * Looking at total exposures (investment in CRE and CRE loans) by investor type, banks have the highest exposure to CRE in most countries. | ||
* The assets under management of real estate alternative investment funds (AIFs) increased by €597 billion in the first quarter of 2017 to €1.06 trillion in the third quarter of 2021. | * The assets under management of real estate alternative investment funds (AIFs) increased by €597 billion in the first quarter of 2017 to €1.06 trillion in the third quarter of 2021. | ||
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===== Collateral stretch ===== | ===== Collateral stretch ===== | ||
* Income returns have trended downward | |||
* Low-frequency asset valuations increase valuation uncertainty during periods of market stress. Low-frequency valuation cycles can lead funds to report stable prices for their real estate investments, which could undermine trust in real estate funds’ valuations. | |||
===== Income and activity stretch ===== | |||
* The volume of investment transactions in CRE almost returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2021, but has decreased more recently. | |||
* Perceived risk related to retail property has risen, as shown by yield spreads against ten-year German Bunds. | |||
===== Financing stretch ===== | |||
* In the banking sector, a significant share of loans have an LTV ratio above 80% in a number of countries, which indicates that the sector is highly exposed to changes in CRE prices. Declining CRE prices could lead to rising LTV ratios, pushing up capital requirements and undermining the ability of banks to provide credit. | |||
* Even for loans with LTV ratios that might appear more conservative, the aggregate information might hide other, riskier characteristics, such as a bullet repayment scheme, a non-recourse structure, variable unhedged interest rates or long maturities | |||
* The NPL coverage ratio for CRE loans is much lower than that for total loans to NFCs. | |||
* In 14 euro area countries, variable interest loans make up more than 50% of CRE loans | |||
https://www.scopegroup.com/dam/jcr:e375322a-3fdf-4cbf-8e65-8a39cdd10763/Scope%20Ratings%20-%20European%20CMBS%20under%20pressure%20Mar%2021%202023.pdf | https://www.scopegroup.com/dam/jcr:e375322a-3fdf-4cbf-8e65-8a39cdd10763/Scope%20Ratings%20-%20European%20CMBS%20under%20pressure%20Mar%2021%202023.pdf | ||