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Economic Outlook: Difference between revisions
→3. Conference Board Leading Index
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* The Conference Board Leading Economic | The U.S. LEI fell to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-apr-2023</ref> | ||
* The LEI is down | |||
* The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. fell by 1.2 percent in March 2023, following a decline of 0.5 percent in February. A -0.6% decline was expected. | |||
* The LEI is down 4.5 percent over the six-month period between September 2022 and March 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.5 percent contraction over the previous six months | |||
* The recession signal was hit in August 2022.<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-sept-2022#:~:text=The%20Conference%20Board%20Leading%20Economic,over%20the%20previous%20six%20months.</ref> | * The recession signal was hit in August 2022.<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-sept-2022#:~:text=The%20Conference%20Board%20Leading%20Economic,over%20the%20previous%20six%20months.</ref> | ||
The index criteria gave the recession signal on August 2022, and since then the index has deteriorated further. Given the track record of the index and the lead time of 7 months, risks of recession in the US economy are amplified significantly in Q2 2023 onwards. | The index criteria gave the recession signal on August 2022, and since then the index has deteriorated further. Given the track record of the index and the lead time of 7 months, risks of recession in the US economy are amplified significantly in Q2 2023 onwards. | ||