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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 May: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 May (view source)
Revision as of 20:24, 12 June 2023
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== CPI expectations == | == CPI expectations == | ||
May 2023 CPI is expected to have a significant decline from 4.9% in april to 4.1%, comp from may 2022 are also very significant. However core prices are expected to continue in the 5%+ range, and will above the FED targe. | |||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | |||
*Wages increased 0.3% during may, they were up 4.3% y/y, matching the smallest increase since mid-2021, but stil above historical averages. | |||
*Energy prices saw prices decline during may, this will be reflected in a significant lower energy CPI. | |||
*Food prices was down 2.6 percent in may, and 22.1 percent y/y, we can continue to expect lower Food CPI prices. | |||
*Supply chain continue to fall below the index’s historical average in may. | |||
*Housing prices had again an increased of 1.5% month-over-month in may. Lags are expected to start to reflect a more modest shelter CPI in coming months, however recent price increases could mean that the moderation could be limited in the short term. | |||
*Used Car decreased 2.7% m/m and new cars had a modest increase of 0.5% in may. However May CPI data is most likely to still reflect the significant increases in prices that vehicles saw during Q1 2023. | |||
The markets are now pricing a pause in June meeting, with 78% probability. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref> | |||
''Range:'' | |||
*CPI: 3.9% - 4.3% | |||
*Core CPI: 5.2% - 5.4% | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''Escenario''' | |||
|'''Market reaction''' | |||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |||
|- | |||
|Both CPI and Core CPI below expectations | |||
|4%+ rally | |||
|5% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI below expectations and Core CPI in line | |||
|2-3% Rally | |||
|15% | |||
|- | |||
|Both CPI and Core CPI in line with expectations | |||
|Flat | |||
|40% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI above expectation and Core CPI in line | |||
|1-2% drop | |||
|35% | |||
|- | |||
|Both CPI and Core CPI above expectations | |||
|5% drop | |||
|5% | |||
|} | |||
=== Consensus forecast === | === Consensus forecast === | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
| Line 60: | Line 98: | ||
=== Institutions Forecasts === | === Institutions Forecasts === | ||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!INSTITUTION | |||
!FORECAST<ref>https://twitter.com/gurgavin/status/1668322406111514624</ref> | |||
|- | |||
|BARCLAYS | |||
|4.0% | |||
|- | |||
|BLOOMBERG | |||
|4.0% | |||
|- | |||
|CIBC | |||
|4.0% | |||
|- | |||
|CITIGROUP | |||
|4.0% | |||
|- | |||
|CREDIT SUISSE | |||
|4.0% | |||
|- | |||
|MORGAN STANLEY | |||
|4.0% | |||
|- | |||
|TD | |||
|4.0% | |||
|- | |||
|VISA | |||
|4.0% | |||
|- | |||
|WELLS FARGO | |||
|4.0% | |||
|- | |||
|UBS | |||
|4.1% | |||
|- | |||
|BMO | |||
|4.1% | |||
|- | |||
|HSBC | |||
|4.1% | |||
|- | |||
|GURGAVIN CAPITAL | |||
|4.1% | |||
|- | |||
|GOLDMAN SACHS | |||
|4.2% | |||
|- | |||
|JP MORGAN | |||
|4.2% | |||
|- | |||
|RBC | |||
|4.2% | |||
|- | |||
|SCOTIABANK | |||
|4.3% | |||
|- | |||
|'''MEDIAN''' | |||
|'''4.1%''' | |||
|} | |||
== References == | |||