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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 May: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 May (view source)
Revision as of 20:35, 12 June 2023
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== CPI expectations == | == CPI expectations == | ||
May 2023 CPI is expected to have a significant decline from 4.9% in april to 4.1%, comps from may 2022 are | May 2023 headline CPI is expected to have a significant decline from 4.9% in april to 4.1%, especially since comps from may 2022 are very significant. However, core prices are expected to continue in the 5%+ range, and well above the FED targe. | ||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | ||
*Wages increased 0.3% during may, they were up 4.3% y/y, matching the smallest increase since mid-2021, but stil above historical averages. | *Wages increased 0.3% during may, they were up 4.3% y/y, matching the smallest increase since mid-2021, but stil above historical averages. | ||
*Energy prices saw prices decline during may, this will be reflected in a significant lower energy CPI. | *Energy prices saw prices decline during may, this will be reflected in a significant lower energy CPI. | ||
*Food prices was down 2.6 percent in may, and 22.1 percent y/y, we can continue to expect lower Food CPI prices. | *Food prices was down 2.6 percent in may, and 22.1 percent y/y, we can continue to expect lower Food CPI prices, especially due to its lags. | ||
*Supply chain continue to fall below the index’s historical average in may. | *Supply chain continue to fall below the index’s historical average in may. | ||
*Housing prices had again an increased of 1.5% month-over-month in may. Lags are expected to start to reflect a more modest shelter CPI in coming months, however recent price increases could mean that the moderation could be limited in the short term. | *Housing prices had again an increased of 1.5% month-over-month in may. Lags are expected to start to reflect a more modest shelter CPI in coming months, however recent price increases could mean that the moderation could be limited in the short term. | ||
| Line 20: | Line 20: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Both CPI and Core CPI below expectations | |Both CPI and Core CPI below expectations | ||
| | |5%+ rally | ||
|5% | |5% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI below expectations | |CPI in line but Core CPI below expectations | ||
|2-3% Rally | |2-3% Rally | ||
|15% | |15% | ||
| Line 29: | Line 29: | ||
|Both CPI and Core CPI in line with expectations | |Both CPI and Core CPI in line with expectations | ||
|Flat | |Flat | ||
| | |30% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI | |CPI in line but Core CPI above expectations | ||
|1-2% drop | |1-2% drop | ||
| | |40% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Both CPI and Core CPI above expectations | |Both CPI and Core CPI above expectations | ||
| | |4% drop | ||
| | |10% | ||
|} | |} | ||
=== Consensus forecast === | === Consensus forecast === | ||