Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 May: Difference between revisions

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+=== <ref name=":0">https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/12/inflation-report-tuesday-will-be-critical-for-the-direction-of-fed-policy.html</ref>Commentary ===
+==== Moody's ====
+* “The most encouraging thing is the year-over-year growth rates are going to come down pretty sharply,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “The headline number is going to feel good, it’s going to be encouraging, showing inflation is moving in the right direction. More fundamentally, I think inflation ''is'' moving in the right direction.”
+* “Inflation is coming in and they might get a number that gives them comfort that things are moving in the right direction,” Zandi said. “They don’t need to raise rates again.”<ref name=":0" />
+==== Center for Economic and Policy Research ====
+* “Inflation has been trending downward for the last year,” said Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. “If this trend continues, the Fed can declare victory and focus on the employment side of its mandate. However, inflation is still well above the Fed’s [2%] target, so the question is whether the downward path is continuing or whether we have hit a plateau.”
+==== Bill English, former Fed official ====
+* “Whether or not they can get a soft landing depends on large part on how inflation plays out,” said Bill English, a former Fed official who is now a finance professor at the Yale School of Management. “If inflation stays high, they just have to raise rates more. It may be the path for employment and output that’s consistent with getting inflation down to 2% in a couple of years is not one that you would like.”<ref name=":0" />
+==== Vanguard ====
+* We believe inflation will continue to moderate but remain above 3% through year-end, and unemployment will trend higher to a still reasonable 4.5%,” Sathe said in a client note. “In that scenario, the Fed cutting its policy rate this year is unlikely.”
+* “Our model suggests that it’s nearly three times as likely that the Fed will raise its target for the federal funds rate or keep it on hold this year than that it will cut rates,” Sathe said. “Our model’s output underscores our conviction that the Fed’s fight against inflation hasn’t yet reached an inflection point.”<ref name=":1">https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2023-06-12/may-inflation-number-fed-interest-rate-decision-highlight-economic-news</ref>
+==== Wells Fargo ====
+* “Given the mixed messages, the Fed appears to deem it prudent to back off the recent rate tightening campaign and assess the economic situation before deciding if any more action is needed to achieve the FOMC’s inflation goal,” Sam Bullard, managing director and senior economist<ref name=":1" />
+* “Assuming (the Fed’s Open Market Committee) leaves rates alone this week, there is a meaningful chance that the committee will hike another 25 bps in July, which is our current call,” he added.
 == References ==