Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 May: Difference between revisions

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 May (view source)

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 == Assessment by Magaly  ==
-May CPI numbers saw a big jump down from 4.9% to 4%, and disinflation is expected to continue in June, with estimates already in the low 3%, but is still early in my opinion to consider that inflation will get to the 2% target soon, as most of the decline in these 2 months will be due to the base effects in 2022, and after June 2023 the CPI trajectory starts to be less certain, and probably more sticky at those levels. Hence, in my opinion, this big decline in CPI is still not enough to change anytime soon the FED plan to keep rates higher.
+May CPI numbers saw a big jump down from 4.9% to 4%, and disinflation is expected to continue in June, with estimates already in the low 3%, but is still early in my opinion to consider that inflation will get to the 2% target soon, as most of the decline in these 2 months will be due to the base in 2022 being too high. After June 2023 the CPI trajectory starts to be less certain, and probably more sticky at those levels. Hence, in my opinion, this big decline in CPI is still not enough to change anytime soon the FED plan to keep rates higher.
 After CPI numbers, the market is now pricing an almost 100% possibility of a pause in rates in June. But a rate hike in July is still at 60%. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref>