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Federal Reserve:Meetings/2023 June 14: Difference between revisions
Federal Reserve:Meetings/2023 June 14 (view source)
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== Market Expectations == | == Market Expectations == | ||
=== Magaly's Assessment === | |||
I give almost a zero probablity that the FED will hike today, the FED is known to avoid surprising the markets, and also recent data supports a pause. | |||
However, they will most likely leave open the possibily with their languaje, and could also even be in their projections. | |||
The FED will also likely continue to consider the possibility of a soft landing as their base scenario, and the bank credit tightening just as help for their inflation fight. | |||
Overall, apart from the pause in rate, I dont expect any significant change in their hawkish tone. | |||
=== Market === | |||
Markets are expecting a rate pause in June with a 92% probability, but are expecting a rate hike in july with 60% probably. And only 1 rate cut in expected in november. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html</ref> | Markets are expecting a rate pause in June with a 92% probability, but are expecting a rate hike in july with 60% probably. And only 1 rate cut in expected in november. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html</ref> | ||
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