Federal Reserve:Meetings/2023 June 14: Difference between revisions

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 === Magaly's Assessment ===
+Even though the economic projections show 2 more rate hikes in the future, Powell language signals a lot of uncertainty if this is actually going to happen. Given the market reaction during and after Powell conference, it seems the market does not believe this will be the case.
+After the Fed meeting, the market still prices only a  65% probability of a hike in July, but a pause after that for the rest of the year. No rate cuts are now expected in 2023.
+Powell mentions not having much confidence in economic projections, as they are very data dependent, making them less certain. And the decision and developments will be made based on incoming economic data.
+In my opinion, that FED will hike rates again, only if inflation accelares again or remains sticky for several months, and if the economic data remains resilient, if this is not the case, I dont expect them to rise again.
+What seems very clear is that as long as the economy holds well, rate cuts shouls not be expected, as Powell said not to expect cuts anytime soon because real rates are needed for inflation to come down to target.
 === Projections ===