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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 June: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 June (view source)
Revision as of 19:12, 10 July 2023
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== CPI expectations == | == CPI expectations == | ||
June 2023 headline CPI is expected to , comps from June 2022 continue to be very high, but after July they start to decrese significantly. Core prices are expected to continue in the 5%+ range, and well above the FED targe. | |||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | |||
* Wages are stil above historical averages, and came higher than expected in June, matching May increase. | |||
* Energy were slighty up during June, however due to the increases in energy in 2022, we will probably still see | |||
* Food prices was down 1.4% percent in June, and 23.4% since its peak | |||
* Supply chain continue to be below the index’s historical average in June | |||
* Housing prices recorded a third consecutive month of prices increases, increasing 1.7% month-over-month in April of 2023. This data could suggest than cooling in shelter CPI could not be permanent or volatile. | |||
* Used Car decreased 4.2% m/m among the largest declines in history, this will be refleced in CPI in coming months due to the lags. | |||
The markets are now pricing a hike in Jlu meeting, with 92% probability. There are no more hikes price for 2023, and no cuts either. | |||
''Range:'' | |||
* CPI: 3.0% - 3.3% | |||
* Core CPI: 4.9% - 5.3% | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''Escenario''' | |||
|'''Market reaction''' | |||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |||
|- | |||
|Both CPI and Core CPI below expectations | |||
|5%+ rally | |||
|5% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI in line but Core CPI below expectations | |||
|2-3% Rally | |||
|15% | |||
|- | |||
|Both CPI and Core CPI in line with expectations | |||
|Flat | |||
|30% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI in line but Core CPI above expectations | |||
|1-2% drop | |||
|40% | |||
|- | |||
|Both CPI and Core CPI above expectations | |||
|4% drop | |||
|10% | |||
|} | |||
=== Consensus forecast === | === Consensus forecast === | ||