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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 June: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 June (view source)
Revision as of 19:26, 12 July 2023
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== Assessment by Magaly == | == Assessment by Magaly == | ||
[[File:9bd94d95a0e3d24c7f76a501da69cc7375584fc9.png|thumb|CPI Different Scenarios]] | |||
June CPI saw a very positive surprise, coming better than expected. Its especially positive to see that shelter CPI account now for 70% of the increase in CPI, because we expect this number to continue going lower in coming months. | |||
However, June numbers were already expected to be positive, and it did not chance the market pricing of another hike. Second half of 2023 will be more to imporant to determine the FED path going forward , as we can see in the Bank of America, even if it stays at 0.2% m/m in headline CPI, we will still have an increase in CPI to almost 4% at year end. So, we will need to see additional disinflation going forward to continue in a declining trend. If not we will actually see inflation increasing again after July, the FED Cleveland is already forecasting July CPI higher than June. | |||
After CPI numbers, the probably of a hike in July actually went up to 95%, but a second hike after July is now more in question. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref> | |||
Key Takeaways from June CPI numbers: | |||
* Shelter CPI starts to reflect the lags, and its rate of inflation has started to come down . We have to remain cautios with shelter CPI, as long as housing prices continue to increase. . | |||
* Used car CPI decrease again in June, but the big decline in June in used car prices will be reflected in coming months. Which will put additional presuare to the downside. | |||
* Transportation continues to be very volatile month by month, this month saw an decrease again, but will need to see consistent declines to improve in its y/y contribution. | |||
* Energy price declines are having a very negative contribution on headline CPI due to the comps, which will be significant lower after June. | |||
== Outlook == | |||
=== Fed Cleveland === | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!<ref name=":0" /> | |||
! colspan="2" |YoY Change | |||
! colspan="2" |MoM Change | |||
|- | |||
!Month | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
|- | |||
|July 2023 | |||
|3.35 | |||
|4.92 | |||
|0.34 | |||
|0.40 | |||
|} | |||
== Summary == | == Summary == | ||
| Line 105: | Line 140: | ||
|0.30% | |0.30% | ||
|0.40% | |0.40% | ||
| | |0.2% | ||
| | |0.83% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Core CPI (YoY) | |Core CPI (YoY) | ||
|5.00% | |5.00% | ||
|5.30% | |5.30% | ||
| | |4.8% | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Line 117: | Line 152: | ||
|0.30% | |0.30% | ||
|0.10% | |0.10% | ||
| | |0.2% | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Line 123: | Line 158: | ||
|3.1% | |3.1% | ||
|4.0% | |4.0% | ||
| | |3% | ||
| | | | ||
|} | |} | ||
| Line 129: | Line 164: | ||
=== FED Cleveland Forecast === | === FED Cleveland Forecast === | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
!<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref> | !<ref name=":0">https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref> | ||
! colspan="2" |YoY Change | ! colspan="2" |YoY Change | ||
! colspan="2" |MoM Change | ! colspan="2" |MoM Change | ||