Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 June: Difference between revisions

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 June (view source)

Revision as of 19:33, 12 July 2023

6 bytes added , 12 July 2023

no edit summary

VisualWikitext

MagaNH6

Administrators

3,882

edits

@@ Line 9: / Line 9: @@
 June CPI saw a very positive surprise, coming better than expected. Its especially positive to see that shelter CPI account now for 70% of the increase in CPI, because we expect this number to continue going lower in coming months.
-However, June numbers were already expected to be positive, and it did not change the market pricing of another hike. Second half of 2023 will be more to imporant to determine the FED path going forward , as we can see in the Bank of America, even if it stays at 0.2% m/m in headline CPI, we will still have an increase in CPI to almost 4% at year end. So, we will need to see additional disinflation going forward to continue in a declining trend. If not we will actually see inflation increasing again after July, the FED Cleveland is already forecasting July CPI higher than June.
+However, June numbers were already expected to be positive, and it did not change the market pricing of another hike. Second half of 2023 will be more to imporant to determine the FED path going forward , as we can see in the Bank of America image, even if it stays at 0.2% m/m in headline CPI, we will still have an increase in CPI to almost 4% at year end. So, we will need to see additional disinflation going forward to continue in a declining trend. If not we will actually see inflation increasing again after July, the FED Cleveland is already forecasting July CPI higher than June.
 After CPI numbers, the probability of a hike in July actually went up to 95%, but a second hike after July is now more in question. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref>