Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 June: Difference between revisions

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 June (view source)

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 However, June numbers were already expected to be positive, and it did not change the market pricing of another hike. Second half of 2023 will be more to imporant to determine the FED path going forward , as we can see in the Bank of America image, even if it stays at 0.2% m/m in headline CPI, we will still have an increase in CPI to almost 4% at year end. So, we will need to see additional disinflation going forward to continue in a declining trend. If not we will actually see inflation increasing again after July, the FED Cleveland is already forecasting July CPI higher than June.
-After June CPI numbers, the probability of a hike in July stayed the same, but a second hike after July is now more in question. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref> After July, we will have next meeting until september, and June CPI will be probably be already irrelevant for that decision.
+After June CPI numbers, the probability of a hike in July stayed the same, but a second hike after July is now more in question. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref> After July, we will have next meeting until september, and June CPI will probably be already irrelevant for that decision.
 Key Takeaways from June CPI numbers: