2,756
edits
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 June: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 June (view source)
Revision as of 09:52, 13 July 2023
, 13 July 2023no edit summary
No edit summary |
No edit summary |
||
| Line 7: | Line 7: | ||
== Assessment by Magaly == | == Assessment by Magaly == | ||
[[File:9bd94d95a0e3d24c7f76a501da69cc7375584fc9.png|thumb|CPI Different Scenarios]] | [[File:9bd94d95a0e3d24c7f76a501da69cc7375584fc9.png|thumb|CPI Different Scenarios]] | ||
June CPI saw a very positive surprise, coming better than expected. Its especially positive to see that shelter CPI accounts now for more than 70% of the increase in CPI, because we expect this number to continue going lower in coming months, CPI should come lower with it or at least stabilize, unless a spike in other components. | June CPI saw a very positive surprise, coming better than expected. Its especially positive to see that shelter CPI accounts now for more than 70% of the monthly increase in CPI, because we expect this number to continue going lower in coming months, CPI should come lower with it or at least stabilize, unless a spike in other components. | ||
However, June numbers were already expected to be positive, and it did not change the market pricing of another hike. Second half of 2023 will be more to imporant to determine the FED path going forward , as we can see in the Bank of America image, even if it stays at 0.2% m/m in headline CPI, we will still have an increase in CPI to almost 4% at year end. So, we will need to see additional disinflation going forward to continue in a declining trend. If not we will actually see inflation increasing again after July, the FED Cleveland is already forecasting July CPI higher than June. | However, June numbers were already expected to be positive, and it did not change the market pricing of another hike. Second half of 2023 will be more to imporant to determine the FED path going forward , as we can see in the Bank of America image, even if it stays at 0.2% m/m in headline CPI, we will still have an increase in CPI to almost 4% at year end. So, we will need to see additional disinflation going forward to continue in a declining trend. If not we will actually see inflation increasing again after July, the FED Cleveland is already forecasting July CPI higher than June. | ||