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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 July: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 July (view source)
Revision as of 15:44, 9 August 2023
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* Wages are stil above historical averages and came higher than expected in July once again.Wage growth remains very sticky. | * Wages are stil above historical averages and came higher than expected in July once again.Wage growth remains very sticky. | ||
* Energy prices saw a significant increase in July, this will be the main reason for higher CPI headline readings in coming mothns. | * Energy prices saw a significant increase in July, this will be the main reason for higher CPI headline readings in coming mothns, especially August. | ||
* Food price index increase 1.3% m/m during July, but is still 11.8% lower than a year ago. | * Food price index increase 1.3% m/m during July, but is still 11.8% lower than a year ago. | ||
* Supply chain continue to be below the index’s historical average in July, but rebounded a bit during July. | * Supply chain continue to be below the index’s historical average in July, but rebounded a bit during July. | ||
* Housing prices recorded a 4th consecutive month of price increases, increasing 1.2% month-over-month in May of 2023 (-0.5% y/y). Rent prices also increased 0.3% m/m, but are now -0.7% y/y. | * Housing prices recorded a 4th consecutive month of price increases, increasing 1.2% month-over-month in May of 2023 (-0.5% y/y). Rent prices also increased 0.3% m/m, but are now -0.7% y/y. | ||
* Used Car prices continue to decrease July, but at a more modest pace (1.6% m/m). New car transaction prices also decline 0.7% m/m during July. Recent significant declines, should start to be more reflected in CPI. | * Used Car prices continue to decrease July, but at a more modest pace (1.6% m/m). New car transaction prices also decline 0.7% m/m during July. Recent significant declines, should start to be more reflected in CPI. | ||
The markets are pricing a pause in rates for the remaining of the year. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref> | The markets are pricing a pause in rates for the remaining of the year. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref> | ||
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* CPI: 3.1% - 3.5% | * CPI: 3.1% - 3.5% | ||
* Core CPI: 4.7% - 4.9% | * Core CPI: 4.7% - 4.9% | ||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''Escenario''' | |||
|'''Market reaction''' | |||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |||
|- | |||
|CPI below 3.1% | |||
|4%+ rally | |||
|5% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI between 3.1 - 3.2% | |||
|2-3% Rally | |||
|15% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI in line with expectations | |||
|Flat | |||
|45% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI between 3.4% - 3.5% | |||
|1-2% drop | |||
|30% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI above 3.5% | |||
|3% drop | |||
|5% | |||
|} | |||
=== Consensus forecast === | === Consensus forecast === | ||
| Line 83: | Line 108: | ||
|0.40 | |0.40 | ||
|} | |} | ||
=== Individual Forecasts === | |||
[[File:Screenshot 2023-08-09 090353.png|left|thumb|543x543px|https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1689252688683552768]] | |||
== References == | == References == | ||