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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 July: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 July (view source)
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''Return to: [[Consumer Price Index]] | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases|Historical Releases]]'' | ''%Return to: [[Consumer Price Index]] | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases|Historical Releases]]'' | ||
Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf | Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf | ||
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== Assessment by Magaly == | == Assessment by Magaly == | ||
Even though anual headline CPI is increasing as expected during the month of June due to base effects and oil, is encouraginng to see some of the underlying numbers improving or moderating with month over moth numbers staying at 0.2% for 2 consequetive months now. Is also very positive to see that shelter CPI is now over 90% of the increase in inflation, because we know shelter CPI will continue to moderate in coming months, however I remain cautios with this, as housing prices are reaching the peak once again, and that the moderation in CPI will most likely be more mutted than originally expected. I have the opinion than housing and rent prices will eventually continue lower, but currently there are in a trend higher, which should be monitor. | |||
The markets continue to price a pause in rates,and if that does not change, I think it will be the most likely outcome. Also probably the best outcome, because I dont think another hike is needed at this point. | |||
I think August CPI will be more important than the July print, and also the Jackson Hole Fed statements to determine september probabilities. | |||
Key Takeaways from June CPI numbers | |||
* Super core CPI increased during the month, due to a m/m increase in most service sectors, with some exceptions. Transportation servicies continue to be the primary driver of this category, which increased again in July. | |||
* Used car price CPI, which have been a significant contributor to inflation, decreased again, in line with the recent decline in prices. New car also showing some moderation. | |||
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=== Fed Cleveland === | === Fed Cleveland === | ||