Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 July: Difference between revisions

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 July (view source)

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 Is also positive to see that shelter CPI is now over 90% of the increase in inflation since we know that shelter CPI will continue to moderate in the coming months, however, I remain cautious with this, as housing prices are reaching the peak once again, and that the moderation in CPI will most likely be more muted than originally expected. I have the opinion that housing and rent prices will eventually continue lower, but currently, they are on a trend higher, which should be monitored.
-August headline CPI forecasts are already showing an additional annual increase in July, due to the increase in energy prices, which should continue to put pressure on CPI as long as oil prices continue to increase or don't moderate.
+August headline CPI forecasts are already showing an additional annual increase next moth, due to the increase in energy prices, which should continue to put pressure on CPI as long as oil prices continue to increase or don't moderate.
 The markets continue to price a pause in rates, and if that does not change, I think it will be the most likely outcome. Also probably imo the best outcome, because I don't think another hike is needed at this point.