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US Equity Valuations: Difference between revisions
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* Jeremy Grantham (October 5 2023): With are currently in the deflating part of the bubble from 2021, we will enter a deeply recession in the near term, and we are entering a new era of higher yields. Yields at current levels, it would be mathematically reasonable to think the US market as whole could fall by 50%, he contends. There’s trouble ahead if the “magnificent seven,” the few companies that have been carrying the index this year, lose any part of their magic.<ref>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-06/podcast-gmo-s-jeremy-grantham-says-no-one-should-invest-in-the-us</ref><ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GlQk_FfD3Q</ref> | * Jeremy Grantham (October 5 2023): With are currently in the deflating part of the bubble from 2021, we will enter a deeply recession in the near term, and we are entering a new era of higher yields. Yields at current levels, it would be mathematically reasonable to think the US market as whole could fall by 50%, he contends. There’s trouble ahead if the “magnificent seven,” the few companies that have been carrying the index this year, lose any part of their magic.<ref>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-06/podcast-gmo-s-jeremy-grantham-says-no-one-should-invest-in-the-us</ref><ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GlQk_FfD3Q</ref> | ||
* Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at NYU Stern School of Business (Aug 11 2023): Markets are overreach currently, but don't think will get to the 2022 lows. However, he admits markets tend to overshoot or undershoot in both directions. ERP has value in 5-10 years, but not way to know when the move will happen. <ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPkQ7_3Sf1E</ref> | * Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at NYU Stern School of Business (Aug 11 2023): Markets are overreach currently, but don't think will get to the 2022 lows. However, he admits markets tend to overshoot or undershoot in both directions. ERP has value in 5-10 years, but not way to know when the move will happen. <ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPkQ7_3Sf1E</ref> | ||
* SoFi Head of Investment Strategy (Jul 18, 2023): Stock prices have continued rising as yields have risen, those divergences do not last forever, and something has to happen to close that gap eventually. She thinks this relationship still matters, but that the economy may be different, less interest rate sensitive, and the AI enthusiasm has made the market not care about rates for now. <ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dck1miwy2ug</ref> | * Liz Young, SoFi Head of Investment Strategy (Jul 18, 2023): Stock prices have continued rising as yields have risen, those divergences do not last forever, and something has to happen to close that gap eventually. She thinks this relationship still matters, but that the economy may be different, less interest rate sensitive, and the AI enthusiasm has made the market not care about rates for now. <ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dck1miwy2ug</ref> | ||
* Strategas Research Partners chairman and CEO: Even looking at the most optimistic estimates for earnings next year equity market doesn't look cheap. But markets can remain overbought longer than they stay oversold. <ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKjl9a4ZjJI</ref> | * Jason Trennert, Strategas Research Partners chairman and CEO (Jul 27 2023): Even looking at the most optimistic estimates for earnings next year equity market doesn't look cheap. But markets can remain overbought longer than they stay oversold.Most value now is from sectors that have not participated in the rally so far. <ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKjl9a4ZjJI</ref> | ||
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