Spotify:Position Changes

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2023 April 25

I increased the Spotify position by 1/3 at EUR 122,90 or USD 135.6 minutes after their Q1 2023 Earnings Release. (Previous day close: USD 131.3)

It is now the second largest position after Meta.

Reasons:

  • Surprisingly strong MAU growth and strong Q2 Outlook.
  • Positive engagement and churn signs.
  • Positive Music Industry Outlook.
  • Slightly increased operating result and operating margin with clear path to profitability.

After further research and consideration i decided to hold the new shares for the following main reason:

  • MAU growth was broad based and both in developed and developing countries with no region standing out and it appears their product is gaining in popularity.
  • Spotify is in negotiation with content right holders about a price increase for costumers in 2023 (Probably on the split of revenue). Their data supports their ability to raise prices.
    • Note: I like their way of structuring negotiations with right holders which highlights Spotifys importance and power.
  • Management sees encouraging signs from testing Spotifys new design and is very optimistic about it longterm.
  • AI has potential to further creativity of creators and therefore the amount of content on Spotify. (and Spotifies independence form music labels).
  • They have multiple new unannounced revenue streams in the pipeline.
  • Operating expensive could be lower w/o special items and there is more cost saving potential.
  • Their strategy on advertising is data and ai driven with likely upside potential.
  • The more i learn about Spotify the more i am convinced about the quality of their management, culture, way of conducting business and strategy.