Supply Chains
Goal in constructing the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) was to develop a parsimonious measure of global supply chain pressures that could be used to gauge the importance of supply constraints with respect to economic outcomes. Our research indicates, for example, that changes in the GSCPI are associated with goods and producer price inflation in the United States and the euro area, both during the pandemic period and stretching back to 1997 (the starting point of our data set).[1]
The GSCPI integrates a number of commonly used metrics with the aim of providing a comprehensive summary of potential supply chain disruptions. Global transportation costs are measured by employing data from the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Harpex index, as well as airfreight cost indices from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The GSCPI also uses several supply chain-related components from Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys, focusing on manufacturing firms across seven interconnected economies: China, the euro area, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Methodology: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/faq
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) Developments
Historical: Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI): 2023
The sharp rise around 2020-2022 likely reflects extreme economic conditions during and following the pandemic. This period coincides with significant economic disruptions, related to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic effects, such as large fiscal stimulus programs and supply chain shocks.
By mid-2024, the graph shows a slight rebound but still stays close to the zero mark, indicating that whatever was causing the volatility may have moderated, and values are returning closer to the average range.
| Month[2] | Index |
|---|---|
| 31-Oct-2024 | -0.32 |
| 30-Sep-2024 | 0.11 |
| 31-Aug-2024 | 0.22 |
| 31-Jul-2024 | -0.04 |
| 30-Jun-2024 | -0.34 |
| 31-May-2024 | -0.56 |
| 30-Apr-2024 | -0.94 |
| 31-Mar-2024 | -0.34 |
| 29-Feb-2024 | -0.18 |
| 31-Jan-2024 | -0.35 |
| 31-Dec-2023 | -0.15 |
| 30-Nov-2023 | 0.18 |
| 31-Oct-2023 | -0.35 |
| 30-Sep-2023 | -0.65 |
| 31-Aug-2023 | -1.06 |
| 31-Jul-2023 | -0.92 |
| 30-Jun-2023 | -1.09 |
| 31-May-2023 | -1.56 |
| 30-Apr-2023 | -1.28 |
| 31-Mar-2023 | -1.14 |
| 28-Feb-2023 | -0.21 |
| 31-Jan-2023 | 1.08 |
| 31-Dec-2022 | 1.33 |
| 30-Nov-2022 | 1.26 |
| 31-Oct-2022 | 1.13 |
| 30-Sep-2022 | 1.01 |
| 31-Aug-2022 | 1.51 |
| 31-Jul-2022 | 1.81 |
| 30-Jun-2022 | 2.42 |
| 31-May-2022 | 2.74 |
| 30-Apr-2022 | 3.54 |
| 31-Mar-2022 | 2.84 |
| 28-Feb-2022 | 2.79 |
| 31-Jan-2022 | 3.69 |
| 31-Dec-2021 | 4.39 |
| 30-Nov-2021 | 4.30 |
| 31-Oct-2021 | 3.90 |
| 30-Sep-2021 | 3.35 |
| 31-Aug-2021 | 3.28 |
| 31-Jul-2021 | 2.94 |
| 30-Jun-2021 | 2.76 |
| 31-May-2021 | 3.03 |
| 30-Apr-2021 | 2.75 |
| 31-Mar-2021 | 2.25 |
| 28-Feb-2021 | 1.94 |
| 31-Jan-2021 | 1.31 |
| 31-Dec-2020 | 1.67 |
| 30-Nov-2020 | 0.75 |
| 31-Oct-2020 | 0.11 |
| 30-Sep-2020 | 0.62 |
| 31-Aug-2020 | 1.48 |
| 31-Jul-2020 | 2.97 |
| 30-Jun-2020 | 2.26 |
| 31-May-2020 | 2.50 |
| 30-Apr-2020 | 3.30 |
| 31-Mar-2020 | 2.61 |
| 29-Feb-2020 | 1.27 |
| 31-Jan-2020 | 0.07 |
| 31-Dec-2019 | 0.05 |
| 30-Nov-2019 | 0.17 |
April 2024
The GSCPI fell to -0.85 in April, down from -0.30 in March (revised down from an initial reading of -0.27). GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.[1]
March 2024
The GSCPI fell to -0.27 in March, down from -0.11 in February (revised down from an initial reading of 0.10). GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.[1]
February 2024
The GSCPI rose to 0.10 in February, up from -0.23 in January (revised down from an initial reading of -0.11). GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.[3]
January 2024
The GSCPI rose to -0.11 in January, up from -0.15 in December. GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.[3]