Talk:Podcasting and Audiobooks Industry
Podcasting Industry
User:PirateCaptain I have managed to come up with a short article on the industry. Let me know if you have any questions.--Aron (talk) 10:57, 2 February 2023 (UTC)
Aron Cool start. I am busy with Alphabet earnings and other topics but had a brief look nevertheless. The following things stand out to me: 1. There seems to be discrepancy between the global podcasting market size of $26b and the u.s. podcasting business only being $2b. (Usually the U.S. business has a large share of the global market size) Did you study the sources well and examined their quality and credibility? If both links are high quality and correct and are just referring to different market definitions clarify the differentiation in the article. 2. In it's latest quarterly Earnings Spotify CEO Daniel EK talked about 5 million podcast creators on Spotify alone. See: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4573901-spotify-technology-s-spot-q4-2022-earnings-call-transcript List that on the article and see if there is a reason for the discrapency with the Listen Notes source. 3. It would be cool to get an overview of how popular those podcasts are in terms of numbers. Did you already try to search for listener numbers like you did with Joe Rogan? --PirateCaptain (talk) 11:26, 2 February 2023 (UTC)
User:PirateCaptain You are right. The $2b is podcasting ad revenue from US in 2022 not market size(Globally,podcasting ad revenue in 2022 was estimated to be $2.6b).
Yes, there are over 5 million podcasts. But Listen Notes claims only around 3 million are currently active( adjusted from the 2 million).
Tried checking listener numbers for other podcasts, but the numbers out there doesn't look credible.--Aron (talk) 15:17, 2 February 2023 (UTC)
Aron Ok that makes more sense, thank you. The obvious follow up question is: If the total podcast market is 25.85b and podcast advertising is only 2.6b where are the other 23.25b coming from? I included a new section in the article to break it down into more detail and segments.
Ok that Listen Notes insight is interesting. Include this insight into the Article as well as otherwise people don't get this info.
Which kinds of numbers did you find and why do they look not credible?
On a general note: The goal for the Wiki is to be very similar to Wikipedia so i don't think we should include bold markings in it. I also caught up on older posts in Discord and liked the old structure how you reported things without bold markings way more. (Should i use a special smiley to indicate when i really like the format of a post?) If you want to use bold marking e.g. in the morning sentiment section just do it with 1 single small part like here: https://discord.com/channels/978370501237932092/981658214540136468/1065191455737516054 Otherwise bold markings are too dominant and reading get harder instead of easier. The general rule is less is more. --PirateCaptain (talk) 19:31, 2 February 2023 (UTC)
User:PirateCaptain Well, the number of listeners given are inconsistent with the ranking given. For instance, you will find the podcast in number 10 having higher number of listners than the podcast in number 7(it's like each site is coming up with their own numbers eg this site https://www.alltopeverything.com/top-10-most-popular-podcasts/. I think the best way to give an overview of their popularity is to just give the number of listeners which is reliable and assign the appropriate year eg The daily podcast had 5 million listeners each month in 2018 or Its website indicates that the podcast has 2 million listeners each week. Otherwise finding listener numbers of different podcasts from one similar period is hard.--Aron (talk) 20:55, 2 February 2023 (UTC)
User:PirateCaptain While trying to find the podcast revenue breakdown, I realized that the $25.85 billion (market size) is inaccurate. Here is why I think so:
1) In 2018, US podcasting ad revenue was $479.1, 64% of the total US podcasting revenue($750 million)-According to Deloitte and IAB. In 2022, US podcasting ad revenue was $2 billion, which means that the total podcasting revenue in US was around $3.125 billion.
2) In 2022, the global ad revenue was $2.6 billion. That means US podcasting ad revenue is around 77% of the global podcasting revenue. Using the 77%, we can estimate the global podcasting revenue to be around $4 billion in 2022.
3)Given that podcasting ad contributes the largest revenue than other segments such as subscriptions, events, merchandise, content marketing, contracts for branded podcasts, and individual listener donation, it would be unrealistic for the total market size to be $25.85 billion and podcasting ad revenue to be $2.6 billion.
4)Even Spotify( one of the major podcasters) generated €200 million only in podcast revenue in 2021: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/spotify-podcast-revenue-2021-1235161312/
5)Statista projects Music, Radio and Podcast segment to reach $97.78 billion in 2023. Deloitte indicated in 2020 that Music, Radio and podcast($1.1 in reveu) revenue was $94.1 billion- Music and Radio growing at CARG 4% and podcast growing by 20-30% CARG. When you compare the two reports, it means an increament of $3 billion in revenue.Since podcasting grows faster, we can assume that that it grew by around $2.6 billion (using CARG proportions). That brings the current podcasting revenue to around $3.7 billion.
Unfortunately, there is no current credible research that touches on podcasting revenue. Most of the reports are centered on podcasting ad revenue. But from what I have read and my estimates, there is no way the global podcasting revenue will exceed 4-$5 billion. The $26 billion refers to market size though(but according to their definition, that just refers to revenue). My question is should we use the $26 billion or our projections (using the Deloitte and IAB data) in the article? The latter sounds credible.--Aron (talk) 17:44, 3 February 2023 (UTC)
Aron It happens often in investment research that once you start to dig into numbers you realize that one of the sources you have used is completely wrong. Overall there are many wrong sources out there that's why it is so important to be critical, think along if numbers make sense and ad up. The $25b is an enormous number and i would have been very surprised if that was indeed the podcasting market size. The vendor of this report is unknown and his claims of $66b marketsize in 2027 seem even more wrong. On the other side deloitte and iab (pwc) are very credible sources.
I've tried to look up the 750m number in your first link and think this number is referring to audiobooks not podcasts. Overall i like your method of making educated guesses but there are multiple pitfalls like the fact that a market size can never be accurately guessed and therefore two different institutes may have two slightly different guesstimates of the marketsize even in the same year. CAGR of 4% on 100b is 4b a year while CAGR of 30% on just 1b is 300m a year. So if Podcasts would have grown only 20-30% per year they couldn't have reached todays level. Interestingly iab claims that the podcasting market grew more than 70% per year in 2021.
In our case (for Spotify) advertising podcasting is most relevant. Therefore i think we can focus on that market. Overall i believe advertising makes up likely a very large part of podcasting revenues (90%+). What we should also focus on is how large that market could grow. E.g. can it be a 10b or more dollar market?
The 200m spotify figure as well as audiobook figures are interesting. Make sure to include both of them in the article and potentially change the title to podcasting and audiobook industry. --PirateCaptain (talk) 19:15, 3 February 2023 (UTC)
User:PirateCaptain Yes, you are right on those numbers and also con changing the topic title to podcasting and audiobooks industry since the two are most similar to each other.--Aron (talk) 09:21, 6 February 2023 (UTC)
User:PirateCaptain On this: https://www.investmentwiki.org/wiki/Podcasting_and_Audiobooks_Industry#:~:text=This%20source%20is%20not%20linking%20to%20a%20Deloitte%20source%3FWhy%20is%20there%20this%20huge%20%2495B%20market%20size%20number%3F I think the source is not that credible(emarketer/Inteligence Insider). But I have confirmed with credible sites such as Statista and it's giving the same number of listeners.--Aron (talk) 20:51, 6 February 2023 (UTC)
Aron From my knowledge Emarketer/Intteligence Insider is a credible source. I think they are an agency and doing high quality research (but not 100% sure). In fact Statista is not producing own research and is using a variety of other sources. They can not always be 100% relied upon. (But overall their quality is high as well) --PirateCaptain (talk) 18:52, 10 February 2023 (UTC)
User:PirateCaptain That's my understanding as well. But there's no way podcast revenue will by $95 billion in 2028 ( considering that radio and Music revenue were $51 billion and $42 billion, respectively in 2020). The same Inelligence Insider projects US podcast revenue to be $ 2 billion in 2022. That's a huge difference, considering that podcast ad and podcast US revenue accounts for a large share of podcast revenue. Found out that Statista sources its data from the same Intelligence Insider though.--Aron (talk) 08:06, 13 February 2023 (UTC)
User:Aron Yeah sure not. Can you post the link here in the Discussion session again in which a Intelligence Insider source claims that it will be 95 Billion in 2028? I think another Link to Deloitte is missing here? "Deloitte predicted that the industry willl grow by 30 percent to hit $1.1 billion in 2020" --PirateCaptain (talk) 10:01, 13 February 2023 (UTC)
User:PirateCaptain sure. here is the Intelligence Insider report projecting podcast revenue to hit $95 billion by 2028: https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/technology/technology-media-and-telecom-predictions/2020/rise-of-audiobooks-podcast-industry.html/#endnote-18 I have linked the Deloitte statement.--Aron (talk) 10:14, 13 February 2023 (UTC)