Volkswagen:Quarterly Results/2024 Q4

Management guidance and analysts estimates

Management guidance


Key items	Q4 2024	Y/Y
Revenue	€82.72 billion	-5.1%
Operating result	€5.0 billion	-20.8%
Operating return on sales	6.06%	-16.6%

Note: The above key items have been calculated from management's 2024 revenue guidance of €320 billion and operating return on sales guidance of 5.6%.

Analysts estimates

Key items	Q4 2024^[1]	Y/Y	2025	Y/Y
Revenue	€83.9 billion	-3.8%	€326.5 billion	1.46%
Operating result	€5.3 billion	-15.6%	€20.3 billion	9.7%
Operating return on sales	6.37%	-12.3%	6.21%	8.2%
Earnings attributable to Volkswagen AG shareholders	€3.7 billion	-21.6%	€13.5 billion	12.0%
EPS	€7.30	-21.5%	€26.87	12.0%

Analysts revisions at Seeking Alpha in the last three months

Key items	2024^[2]
	Upward revisions	Downward revisions
Revenue	12	5
EPS	0	0

Competitor results and expectations

General Motors

GM's Q4 2024 revenue came in at $47.7 billion versus analysts estimate o^[3]f $43.93 billion.
CFO Paul A. Jacobson said in the earnings call^[4] that they expect a similar U.S. industry year over year to 2024.
Jacobson said pricing was strong across the board. He added that demand was also strong in Q4. Although they expect strong pricing to continue, they are guiding a 1% to 1.5% year over year decline in pricing in 2025 in the North America market due to potential high incentives and a moderation in average transaction prices (ATPs). He pointed out that pricing was good in January but there is so much noise in it, hence they see it fit to be cautious.

Ford

Ford reported automotive revenue of $44.9 billion in Q4, exceeding analysts estimate ^[5]of $43.02 billion.
CFO Sherry House said in the earnings call^[6] that pricing and inventories have normalized in the ICE segment.
Sherry added that they are lower industry pricing of roughly 2%, driven by incentives.

Tesla

Tesla's Q4 2024 revenue came in at $25.71 billion versus $27.26 billion expected^[7].
Tesla cited reduced average transaction prices (ATPs) across its Model 3, Model Y, Model S and Model X lines as a major reason for the drop in revenue.

Analysts opinions

Volkswagen is resilient

Buy, €140: Analyst Philippe Houchois of Jefferies said Volkswagen is resilient and should be able to reduce costs considerably. He pointed out that last year was the peak of investments but the new year comes with CO2 limits and tariff concerns, which are the greatest uncertainties.
Buy, €115: Analyst Tim Rokossa of Deutsche Bank pointed out that the business trends in Q4 demonstrates Volkswagen's status as a "top pick." He added that the order books for Western Europe are developing nicely.
Market perform, €102: Bernstein Research said Volkswagen Group sounded more optimistic than Porsche.
Sell, €75: Patrick Hummel of UBS said the end of 2024 may have turned out better than expected.

Volkswagen is likely to meet its 2024 targets

Overweight, €100->€105: Analyst Henning Cosman of Barclays said the company is likely to beat its target for 2024 and stick to its dividend ratio of 30%.
HSBC said Volkswagen had a strong momentum in 2024 , which is likely to continue into 2025.
RBC said it raised Volkswagen’s adjusted EBIT estimates for 2024 and 2025 to 20.77 billion euros and 19 billion euros from 20.62 billion euros and 18.21 billion euros, respectively.
Neutral, €98->€102: Analyst George Galliers of Goldman Sachs expects Volkswagen to report operating profit of 5.55 billion euros for Q4. He pointed out that the company is likely to set targets for 2025 that are above the consensus^[8].

2025 will likely be another bad year

Buy, €112: Romain Gourvil of Berenberg said "conditions are still dangerous". He pointed out that sales recovery is taking longer than expected. Gourvil added that the latest trade tensions between Europe, China and the USA are just the latest tip of the iceberg of bad news. He said favorable valuations at Volkswagen is a protection for these risks.
Neutral, €114->€98: Analyst George Galliers of Goldman Sachs expects 2025 to be another challenging year for the European automotive industry. He said he lowered his operating profit estimates for for 2025 by an average of 9%.

There is a potential government support for the European automotive industry

Buy, €125: Cited pointed out that there is a potential government support for the European automakers. The analysts cited the impending dialogue between the European Union and automakers in a "concept note" titled the "Strategic Dialogue on the Future of the European Auto Industry". They also cited a statement published by three French ministers asking the EU to immediately suspend the CO2 regulation. The analysts also said the German finance minister, Olaf Scholz has indicated that the EU is preparing a bloc-wide incentive plan for EVs, which cost reduce costs for Volkswagen.

References

[1] ttps://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/VOLKSWAGEN-AG-436737/finances/

[2] ttps://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VWAGY/earnings/revisions?period=annual

[3] ttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/28/general-motors-gm-earnings-q4-2024.html#:~:text=GM's%20%2447.7%20billion%20in%20revenue,fourth%20quarter%2C%20which%20ended%20Dec.

[4] ttps://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/01/28/general-motors-gm-q4-2024-earnings-call-transcript/#:~:text=Getting%20into%20the%20fourth%2Dquarter,an%20EPS%2Ddiluted%2Dadjusted.

[5] ttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/05/ford-motor-f-earnings-q4-2024.html#:~:text=For%20the%20fourth%20quarter%20of,per%20share%20of%2039%20cents.

[6] ttps://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/02/06/ford-motor-company-f-q4-2024-earnings-call-transcr/#:~:text=We%20delivered%20%2410.2%20billion%20in,to%20%2447%20billion%20in%20liquidity.

[7] ttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/29/tesla-tsla-2024-q4-earnings.html#:~:text=Tesla's%20revenue%20increased%20just%202,over%20year%20to%20%241.6%20billion.

[8] ttps://www.finanzen.ch/analyse/volkswagen-vw-vz-neutral-985527

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