Volkswagen: Analysts Opinions

Return to: Volkswagen

March 2024

March 13, 2024: Neutral, €146: Goldman Sachs analyst, George Galliers, said the unexpectedly good result in Q4 is thanks to the Volkswagen Brand Core .

March 13, 2024: Sell, €100: UBS analyst, Patrick Hummel, projects that Volkswagen's weak China outlook will likely push down consensus earnings estimates by about 5%.

March 4, 2024: Buy, €150: Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois said Volkswagen remains a turnaround story with little cash outflow but its margin outlook doesn’t show the incentive hoped for from its savings program.

March 4, 2024: Overweight, €135: Barclays analyst Henning Cosman said Volkswagen’s 2024 outlook was not as good as hoped.

March 4, 2024: UBS analyst, Patrick Hummel is against Volkswagen’s increasing investments in uncertain areas instead of distributing more dividends to shareholders.

March 4, 2024: Buy, €180: Deutsche Bank analyst, Tim Rokossa thinks Volkswagen was a victim of overly optimistic expectations.

March 1, 2024: Buy, €130:  Berenberg analyst, Romain Gourvil praised Volswagen's 2023 results and 2024 outlook, which comfortably exceeded expectations. However, he thinks the lower-than-expected outlook for net cash flow could be the trigger for weak price reaction to the numbers.

March 1, 2024: Outperform, €146: RBC analyst, Tom Narayan said Volkswagen's free cash inflow outlook appears weak compared to expectations.

March 1, 2024: Neutral, €128: JP Morgan analyst, Jose Asumendi described the company's outlook as cautious but consistent with the current environment in the automotive industry and its strong product cycle.

February 2024

February 21, 2024: Market perform, €124: Analyst  Daniel Roeska of Bernstein said European car makers can no longer afford to lose market share in Europe and USA. He added that compensatory sales growth is growing due to falling consumer demand and increasing desire for cheaper cars. Roeska wants them to increase dividends and share buybacks since they have huge amount of cash.

February 20, 2024: Neutral, €139->€146: Analyst George Galliers of Goldman Sachs said the January delivery figures demonstrate a solid start to the year, mainly due to a strong Chinese business, but expects developments in the course of the year to be at the same level as last year. He expects Volkswagen’s Q4 2023 profitability to improve and sees the trend continuing to 2024.

January 2024

January 24, 2024: Analyst Daniel Roeska of Bernstein said there was slightly encouraging data in European business in the first quarter and indications that the U.S. business may have bottomed out while China is still a challenge. In general, he believes the automotive market will continue to weaken before it recovers.

January 24, 2024: Buy, €150: Analyst Philippe Houchois of Jefferies said the statements made at the conference call held with analysts reinforce his view that 2023 ended well for Volkswagen. He added that Volkswagen could resist the industry trends of declining results in the current year.

January 24, 2024: Buy, €190->€180: Analyst Tim Rokossa of Deutsche Bank expects Volkswagen to report strong cash flow for Q4 due to solid delivery figures for December. He added that available information indicates Q4 was the strongest quarter.

January 23, 2024: Outperform, €140->€146: Referring to the recent call with analysts and investors, analyst Tom Narayan of RBC said Volkswagen’s comments on price, product mix and sales this year were constructive, adding that he increased his estimate for operating profit.

January 23, 2024: Stifel analyst Daniel Schwarz said Volkswagen delivered a confident message regarding Q4 2023 and 2024 during a recent call with analysts. As a result, consensus estimates seemed too low, he said. “Our take-away is clearly positive regarding Q4 and 2024. VW says that Q4 revenues benefit from higher unit sales,” he wrote in an email to clients. “VW made a few comments on 2024. S&P expects global volumes to increase by around 3% and VW should probably grow in line with that.”

January 22, 2024: Outperform, €140: Analyst Tom Narayan of RBC is cautious about the upcoming results. He said price/mix normalization is a significant headwind for manufacturers and expects conservative forecasts from the automakers for 2024.

January 12, 2024: Sell, €100: UBS analyst Patrick Hummel said car makers should forecast sales for 2024 at the previous year's level due to price wars in China and Europe. He expects Volkswagen to report Q4 2023 results that are in line with the company's guidance.

January 12, 2024: Outperform, €140: RBC analyst Tom Narayan emphasized that Chinese EV sales have recovered significantly. He pointed out that this strength " can only be partially explained by typical seasonal effects."

January 3, 2024: Neutral, €128: Analyst Jose Asumendi of JP Morgan expects 2024 to be a strong profit year for the industry. He pointed out that car manufacturers should be able to maintain their pricing power despite lower production volumes.

December, 2023

December 20: 2023: Buy, €149: Stiffel believes that Volkswagen is ''a promising investment case for 2024'' due to cost reductions and its upcoming models. Stiffel added that the market underestimates VW's ability to reduce costs even under strong pressure.

December 20, 2023: Market Perform, €124: Analyst Daniel Roeska of Bernstein Research forecasts that the end of government subsidies will push up EV prices by 6 to 17%, hence lowering their demand even if automakers are helping their customers. He forecasts that the end of subsidies will cost automakers 3 billion euros.

December 20, 2023: Neutral, €137: Analyst George Galliers of Goldman Sachs said that the cost-savings plan was probably expected by the market but sees the development as positive. He said it's now a matter of implementation.

December 19, 2023: Buy, €150: Jefferies said that the announced cost reduction plan has no surprises and that it is now time to implement it.

November, 2023

November 29, 2023: JP Morgan analyst Jose Asumendi downgraded Volkswagen's price rating from overweight to neutral and lowered its price target from 160 euros to 128. He is worried about rising competition in the automobile market. He pointed out that big car manufacturers such as VW, GM, Ford and Stellantis have been losing market share over the years due to the internationalisation of the automobile market, which will continue next year. He said new manufacturers from China and North America "appeared on the scene, gained market shares and shook the market."

November 24, 2023: Barclays lowered Volkswagen's price target to 135 euros from 150 but maintained their buy rating. Analyst Henning Cosman is sceptical about the sector noting that Europe's car manufacturers are currently in the backseat compared to their suppliers. Volkswagen remains his favourite among the car makers.