Wages

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Average Hourly Earnings

Historical: Average Hourly Earnings: 2023

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003

Wage growth peaked during the height of the pandemic and has since moderated, although it remains above pre-pandemic levels. The recent 4% figure suggests that wage pressures persist, potentially tied to still resilient labor markets.

Release Date[1] Level M/M Y/Y M/M Forecast Y/Y Forecast
2024-10-01 35.46 0.37 3.99 0.3% 4%
2024-09-01 35.33 0.31 3.88 0.3% 3.8%
2024-08-01 35.22 0.43 3.86 0.3% 3.8%
2024-07-01 35.07 0.23 3.63 0.3% 3.7%
2024-06-01 34.99 0.32 3.83 0.3% 3.9%
2024-05-01 34.88 0.37 4.00 0.3% 3.9%
2024-04-01 34.75 0.17 3.92 0.3% 4%
2024-03-01 34.69 0.38 4.14 0.3% 4.1%
2024-02-01 34.56 0.14 4.25 0.2% 4.4%
2024-01-01 34.51 0.50 4.35 0.3% 4.1%
2023-12-01 34.34 0.32 4.25 0.3% 3.9%
2023-11-01 34.23 0.38 4.26 0.3% 4.0%
2023-10-01 34.10 0.26 4.28 0.3% 4.3%
2023-09-01 34.01 0.29 4.52 0.3% 4.3%
2023-08-01 33.91 0.21 4.53 0.3% 4.3%
2023-07-01 33.84 0.42 4.67 0.3% 4.2%
2023-06-01 33.70 0.48 4.66 0.3% 4.2%
2023-05-01 33.54 0.30 4.55 0.30% 4.4%
2023-04-01 33.44 0.39 4.66 0.30% 4.20%
2023-03-01 33.31 0.48 4.62 0.30% 4.30%
2023-02-01 33.15 0.24 4.74 0.30% 4.70%
2023-01-01 33.07 0.39 4.55 0.30% 4.30%
2022-12-01 32.94 0.34 4.90 0.40% 5.00%
2022-11-01 32.83 0.40 5.09 0.30% 4.60%
2022-10-01 32.70 0.49 4.98 0.30% 4.70%
2022-09-01 32.54 0.31 5.14 0.30% 5.10%
2022-08-01 32.44 0.34 5.43 0.40% 5.30%
2022-07-01 32.33 0.40 5.48 0.30% 4.90%
2022-06-01 32.20 0.37 5.44 0.30% 5.00%
2022-05-01 32.08 0.41 5.56 0.40% 5.20%
2022-04-01 31.95 0.35 5.76 0.40% 5.50%
2022-03-01 31.84 0.60 5.92 0.40% 5.50%
2022-02-01 31.65 0.06 5.29 0.50% 5.80%
2022-01-01 31.63 0.73 5.68 0.50% 5.20%
2021-12-01 31.40 0.51 5.02 0.40% 4.20%

May 2024

Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month and 4.1% y/y, above 0.3% and 3.9% estimate.

April 2024

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% for the month and 3.9% y/y, both lower-than estimates.

March 2024

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month of March 2024 and 4.1% y/y, both in line with the estimates.

February 2024

  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month, lower-than the 0.2% estimate (+0.6% previously).
  • Yearly, average hourly earnings rose 4.3%, lower-than 4.4% estimate (+4.5% previously).

January 2024

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.5 percent. [2]

  • In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 19 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $34.55.
  • In January, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 13 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $29.66.

December 2023

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1 percent. [2]

  • In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 15 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $34.27.
  • In December, average hourly earnings ofprivate-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 10 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $29.42.

Employment compensation index

Methodology: https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2001/09/art1full.pdf

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECIWAG
Date Employment Cost Index: Total compensation: All Civilian[3] Employment Cost Index: Wages and salaries for All Civilian [4] Employment Cost Index: Total benefits for All Civilian[5]
Index Dec 2005=100 SA Q/Q Y/Y Index Dec 2005=100 SA Q/Q Y/Y Index Dec 2005=100 SA Q/Q Y/Y
2024-01-01 164.00 1.17 4.19 163.90 1.11 4.33 164.20 1.42 3.73
2023-10-01 162.10 0.93 4.18 162.10 1.06 4.38 161.90 0.50 3.85
2023-07-01 160.60 1.01 4.35 160.40 1.07 4.50 161.10 0.88 4.07
2023-04-01 159.00 1.02 4.54 158.70 1.02 4.61 159.70 0.88 4.24
2023-01-01 157.40 1.16 4.86 157.10 1.16 5.01 158.30 1.54 4.49
2022-10-01 155.60 1.10 5.06 155.30 1.17 5.07 155.90 0.71 4.91
2022-07-01 153.90 1.18 5.05 153.50 1.19 5.07 154.80 1.04 4.95
2022-04-01 152.10 1.33 5.11 151.70 1.40 5.27 153.20 1.12 4.79
2022-01-01 150.10 1.35 4.45 149.60 1.22 4.69 151.50 1.95 4.05
2021-10-01 148.10 1.09 3.93 147.80 1.16 4.53 148.60 0.75 2.84
2021-07-01 146.50 1.24 3.68 146.10 1.39 4.21 147.50 0.89 2.50
2021-04-01 144.70 0.70 2.84 144.10 0.84 3.22 146.20 0.41 2.24
2021-01-01 143.70 0.84 2.64 142.90 1.06 2.73 145.60 0.76 2.46
2020-10-01 142.50 0.85 2.59 141.40 0.86 2.61 144.50 0.42 2.34
2020-07-01 141.30 0.43 2.39 140.20 0.43 2.49 143.90 0.63 2.27
2020-04-01 140.70 0.50 2.70 139.60 0.36 2.87 143.00 0.63 2.22
2020-01-01 140.00 0.79 2.87 139.10 0.94 3.19 142.10 0.64 2.08
2019-10-01 138.90 0.65 2.66 137.80 0.73 2.91 141.20 0.36 2.24

Q1 2024

The US Employment Cost Index rose by 1.2% in the first quarter of 2024, accelerating from a 0.9% increase in the previous three-month period and beating the market consensus of a 1% growth. Employment costs rose the most in one year, as wages and salaries advanced by 1.1% (vs 1.1% in Q4) and benefits increased by 1.1% (vs 0.7%)

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm

Q4 2023

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm

Q3 2023

The Employment Cost Index (ECI), the broadest measure of labor costs, rose 1.1% last quarter after increasing 1.0% in the April-June period, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the ECI would rise 1.0%.[6]

Screenshot 2023-10-31 132116.png

Q2 2023

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/eci.pdf

Compensation costs for civilian workers in the United States increased by 1.0 percent during the second quarter of 2023, easing from a 1.2 percent rise in the previous three-month period and slightly missing market expectations of a 1.1 percent advance.

  • Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 4.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023 and increased 5.1 percent in June 2022
  • Wages and salaries increased 4.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2023 and increased 5.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2022
  • Benefit costs increased 4.2 percent over the year and increased 4.8 percent for the 12- month period ending in June 2022.

Q1 2023

  • Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2023. Following a 1.1 percent rise in the previous period and above market expectations of 1.1 percent[7]
  • Wages and salaries increased 1.2 percent and benefit costs increased 1.2 percent from December 2022.
  • Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 4.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. Wages and salaries increased 5.0 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023, and nenefit costs increased 4.5 percent over the year.
  • Private wages and salaries increased 5.1 percent

Atlanta Wage Tracker

Compensation per hour

Wages Impact on Inflation

https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/current-policy-perspectives/2024/is-post-pandemic-wage-growth-fueling-inflation.aspx

https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/macro_minute/2022/mm_11_15_22

References

  1. ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
  3. ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECIALLCIV
  4. ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIS1020000000000I
  5. ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIU1030000000000I
  6. ↑ https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/eci.pdf
  7. ↑ https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm
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