Automotive Industry:United States

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Forum: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/automotive-industry-united-states/98/41

Data: Tableau | Google Sheets: 1 2 3

Sales

Total Vehicle Sales https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA
[1]
Date Total Vehicle Sales (M)[2][3] Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks (M)[4][5]
Millions M/M Level Change M/M Y/Y Millions M/M Level Change M/M Y/Y
2024-09-01 16.252 0.49 3.09% 0.36% 15.775 0.51 3.35% 0.53%
2024-08-01 15.765 -0.61 -3.74% -0.91% 15.264 -0.60 -3.76% -0.71%
2024-07-01 16.378 0.91 5.86% 0.47% 15.861 0.83 5.54% 0.37%
2024-06-01 15.471 -0.90 -5.51% -5.83% 15.029 -0.86 -5.41% -5.41%
2024-05-01 16.373 -0.20 -1.19% 2.66% 15.889 -0.18 -1.12% 3.22%
2024-04-01 16.57 0.38 2.37% 0.75% 16.069 0.34 2.18% 0.91%
2024-03-01 16.186 0.00 -0.03% 3.31% 15.726 0.04 0.27% 3.79%
2024-02-01 16.191 0.68 4.37% 4.90% 15.683 0.68 4.54% 5.11%
2024-01-01 15.513 -0.87 -5.33% -0.97% 15.002 -0.92 -5.76% -1.05%
2023-12-01 16.386 0.44 2.77% 17.59% 15.919 0.46 2.99% 18.52%
2023-11-01 15.945 0.15 0.92% 8.23% 15.457 0.11 0.74% 8.78%
2023-10-01 15.799 -0.39 -2.43% 4.69% 15.343 -0.35 -2.22% 5.00%
2023-09-01 16.193 0.28 1.79% 14.55% 15.692 0.32 2.08% 15.00%
2023-08-01 15.909 -0.39 -2.41% 13.12% 15.373 -0.43 -2.72% 13.39%
2023-07-01 16.302 -0.13 -0.77% 17.56% 15.803 -0.09 -0.54% 17.95%
2023-06-01 16.428 0.48 3.01% 20.18% 15.889 0.49 3.22% 20.44%
2023-05-01 15.948 -0.50 -3.03% 20.04% 15.394 -0.53 -3.33% 19.97%
2023-04-01 16.446 0.78 4.97% 12.02% 15.924 0.77 5.10% 11.84%
2023-03-01 15.668 0.23 1.52% 9.93% 15.152 0.23 1.55% 9.98%
2023-02-01 15.434 -0.23 -1.47% 8.94% 14.92 -0.24 -1.59% 8.77%
2023-01-01 15.665 1.73 12.41% 5.37% 15.161 1.73 12.88% 4.99%
2022-12-01 13.935 -0.80 -5.42% 5.84% 13.431 -0.78 -5.48% 5.81%
2022-11-01 14.733 -0.36 -2.37% 9.26% 14.21 -0.40 -2.75% 9.01%
2022-10-01 15.091 0.96 6.76% 14.49% 14.612 0.97 7.09% 14.54%
2022-09-01 14.136 0.07 0.51% 11.11% 13.645 0.09 0.64% 11.03%
2022-08-01 14.064 0.20 1.42% 2.17% 13.558 0.16 1.19% 1.60%
2022-07-01 13.867 0.20 1.45% -8.81% 13.398 0.21 1.55% -9.27%
2022-06-01 13.669 0.38 2.88% -14.05% 13.193 0.36 2.81% -14.46%
2022-05-01 13.286 -1.40 -9.50% -23.93% 12.832 -1.41 -9.87% -24.51%
2022-04-01 14.681 0.43 3.00% -21.48% 14.238 0.46 3.35% -21.81%
2022-03-01 14.253 0.09 0.60% -22.94% 13.777 0.06 0.44% -23.34%
2022-02-01 14.168 -0.70 -4.70% -12.13% 13.717 -0.72 -5.01% -12.43%
2022-01-01 14.866 1.70 12.91% -10.97% 14.441 1.75 13.77% -10.90%
2021-12-01 13.166 -0.32 -2.36% -22.43% 12.693 -0.34 -2.62% -23.13%
2021-11-01 13.484 0.30 2.30% -17.54% 13.035 0.28 2.18% -17.97%
2021-10-01 13.181 0.46 3.61% -20.66% 12.757 0.47 3.80% -21.08%
2021-09-01 12.722 -1.04 -7.58% -24.00% 12.29 -1.06 -7.91% -24.56%
2021-08-01 13.765 -1.44 -9.48% -13.60% 13.345 -1.42 -9.63% -13.98%
2021-07-01 15.207 -0.70 -4.38% -0.12% 14.767 -0.66 -4.25% -0.46%
2021-06-01 15.903 -1.56 -8.95% 18.06% 15.423 -1.58 -9.27% 17.61%
2021-05-01 17.466 -1.23 -6.58% 39.64% 16.999 -1.21 -6.65% 39.11%
2021-04-01 18.697 0.20 1.09% 109.05% 18.21 0.24 1.32% 111.89%
2021-03-01 18.496 2.37 14.71% 56.27% 17.972 2.31 14.73% 56.92%
2021-02-01 16.124 -0.57 -3.43% -5.64% 15.664 -0.54 -3.36% -5.79%
2021-01-01 16.697 -0.28 -1.62% -1.16% 16.208 -0.30 -1.84% -1.48%
2020-12-01 16.972 0.62 3.79% -2.97% 16.512 0.62 3.91% -3.02%
2020-11-01 16.352 -0.26 -1.57% -6.82% 15.89 -0.27 -1.70% -7.06%
2020-10-01 16.613 -0.13 -0.75% -2.56% 16.164 -0.13 -0.79% -2.21%
2020-09-01 16.739 0.81 5.07% -5.54% 16.292 0.78 5.02% -5.06%
2020-08-01 15.932 0.71 4.64% -10.90% 15.513 0.68 4.57% -10.57%
2020-07-01 15.225 1.76 13.03% -13.90% 14.835 1.72 13.12% -13.24%
2020-06-01 13.47 0.96 7.69% -24.24% 13.114 0.89 7.32% -24.01%
2020-05-01 12.508 3.56 39.85% -30.38% 12.22 3.63 42.19% -29.76%
2020-04-01 8.944 -2.89 -24.43% -47.29% 8.594 -2.86 -24.96% -47.57%
2020-03-01 11.836 -5.25 -30.74% -33.66% 11.453 -5.17 -31.11% -33.94%
2020-02-01 17.088 0.20 1.15% 0.74% 16.626 0.18 1.06% 1.06%
2020-01-01 16.893 -0.60 -3.42% -0.45% 16.451 -0.58 -3.38% 0.09%
2019-12-01 17.491 -0.06 -0.33% -3.24% 17.027 -0.07 -0.41% -3.22%

COX Sales Data

US Auto Cox Sales: Historical Releases

Date Sales Volume SAAR Volume
Million Q/Q Y/Y Million Q/Q Y/Y
Q3 2024 3.9 -4.7% -2.1% 15.6 -0.3% -0.3%
Q2 2024 4.1 10.5% -0.9% 15.7
Q1 2024 3.7
Q4 2023
Q3 2023 4.0

Q3 2024

New
Screenshot 2024-10-11 150436.png

Q2 2024

Used
[6] Monthly Used Retail Sales Year-Over-Year Change Month-Over-Month Change
2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024
Jan 1,321,830 1,398,501 1,308,311 5.8% -6.4% 10.81% 1.30%
Feb 1,356,204 1,332,128 1,395,644 -1.8% 4.8% 2.6% -4.7% 6.7%
Mar   1,659,013 1,505,948 1,556,473 -9.2% 3.4% 22.3% 13.0% 11.5%
Apr   1,491,848 1,370,688 1,395,645 -8.1% 1.8% -10.1% -9.0% -10.3%
May   1,577,160 1,383,537 1,527,760 -12.3% 10.4% 5.7% 0.9% 9.5%
Jun   1,408,997 1,356,899 1,412,348 -3.7% 4.1% -10.7% -1.9% -7.6%
Jul   1,435,306 1,408,312 -1.9% 1.9% 3.8%
Aug   1,471,864 1,473,243 0.1% 2.5% 4.6%
Sep   1,401,317 1,335,070 -4.7% -4.8% -9.4%
Oct   1,407,624 1,333,904 -5.2% 0.5% -0.1%
Nov   1,280,510 1,268,868 -0.9% -9.0% -4.9%
Dec   1,262,072 1,291,529 2.3% -1.4% 1.8%
New
https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Cox-Automotive-Mid-Year-Review-Presentation.pdf
https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Cox-Automotive-Mid-Year-Review-Presentation.pdf

March 2024

Used
[7] Monthly Used Retail Sales Year-Over-Year Change Month-Over-Month Change
2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024
Jan 1,317,344 1,397,196 1,308,311 -25.4% 6.1% -6.4% -9.9% 6.3% 1.3%
Feb 1,359,467 1,349,784 1,404,837 -11.7% -0.7% 4.1% 3.2% -3.4% 7.4%
Mar   1,670,272 1,501,785 1,664,964 -24.6% -10.1% 10.9% 22.9% 11.3% 18.5%
Apr   1,480,027 1,385,960 -27.0% -6.4% -11.4% -7.7%
May   1,573,287 1,396,172 -19.4% -11.3% 6.3% 0.7%
Jun   1,449,190 1,392,630 -19.5% -3.9% -7.9% -0.3%
Jul   1,466,348 1,407,870 -18.8% -4.0% 1.2% 1.1%
Aug   1,491,004 1,481,718 -19.0% -0.6% 1.7% 5.2%
Sep   1,395,438 1,330,619 -13.7% -4.6% -6.4% -10.2%
Oct   1,414,611 1,320,566 -17.1% -6.6% 1.4% -0.8%
Nov   1,281,130 1,282,699 -15.5% 0.1% -9.4% -2.9%
Dec   1,314,827 1,291,529 -10.1% -1.8% 2.6% 0.7%
New
https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Q1-2024-Cox-Automotive-Industry-Insights-and-Forecast-Call-Presentation.pdf
https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Q1-2024-Cox-Automotive-Industry-Insights-and-Forecast-Call-Presentation.pdf
EV

In the first quarter of 2024, Americans bought 268,909 new electric vehicles. EV share of total new-vehicle sales in Q1 was 7.3%, a decrease from Q4 2023.[8]

  • While annual EV sales continue to grow in the U.S. market, the growth rate has slowed notably. Sales in Q1 rose 2.6% year over year, but fell 15.2% compared to Q4 2023. The increase last quarter was well below the previous two years.
  • One bright spot in Q1: Strong EV sales from luxury makers, suggesting the EV market continues to be luxury-driven. Cadillac achieved a 499.2% year-over-year increase in electric vehicle sales due to robust sales of its Lyriq model. At Mercedes, EV sales were up 66.9%. BMW posted a 62.6% increase in EV sales compared to Q1 2023. At Audi, Q1 EV sales grew 28.8% year over year.

Prices

Historical: US Auto Prices: Historical Releases

By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold.

Methodology: https://site.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html

Used Car Index

[9]

New Car Avg Prices

Screenshot 2024-10-11 152640.png
  • Prices could have revisions that are not reported by Cox
Date Used Car Index New Car Average Transaction Prices New Car Average Listing Price Used Car Average Listing Prices
Index (1/97 = 100) Manheim Index $ amount SA Index % MoM Index % YoY ATP M/M Y/Y Avg Price Avg Price
Oct-24 202.80 18,552 -0.10 -3.15 48,398 0.2% 0.4%
Sep-24 203.00 18,565 -0.44 -5.27 48,397 0.8% -0.4% 47,823[10] 25,361[11]
Aug-24 203.90 18,654 1.14 -3.91 47,997 -0.35% -1.17% 46,841[12] 25,135 [13]
July-24 201.60 18,441 2.80 -4.77 48,166 -0.5% -0.26% 47,307[14] 25,425[15]
Jun-24 196.10 17,934 -0.61 -8.83 48,424[16] 0.1% -1.08% 25,246[17]
May-24 197.30 18,048 -0.55 -12.12 48,378 25,642
Apr-24 198.40 18,151 -2.31 -14.04
Mar-24 203.10 18,573 -0.34 -14.70
Feb-24 203.80 18,645 -0.10 -13.09
Jan-24 204.00 18,664 0.00 -9.25
Dec-23 204.00 18,657 -0.49 -6.98 48,805[18] 26,446[19]
Nov-23 205.00 18,752 -2.10 -5.79
Oct-23 209.40 19,157 -2.29 -4.03
Sep-23 214.30 19,605 0.99 -3.94 48,615
Aug-23 212.20 19,412 0.24 -7.74 48,569
Jul-23 211.70 19,367 -1.58 -11.64 48,295
Jun-23 215.10 19,679 -4.19 -10.34 48,951
May-23 224.50 20,535 -2.73 -7.61
Apr-23 230.80 21,113 -3.07 -4.35
Mar-23 238.10 21,777 1.54 -2.38
Feb-23 234.50 21,452 4.31 -7.06
Jan-23 224.80 20,563 2.51 -12.77
Dec-22 219.30 20,060 0.78 -14.90 49,929
Nov-22 217.60 19,900 -0.27 -14.20
Oct-22 218.20 19,955 -2.20 -10.57
Sep-22 223.10 20,410 -3.00 -0.13
Aug-22 230.00 21,039 -4.01 8.44
Jul-22 239.60 21,915 -0.13 12.49
Jun-22 239.90 21,941 -1.28 9.74
May-22 243.00 22,225 0.70 9.71
Apr-22 241.30 22,076 -1.07 13.98
Mar-22 243.90 22,305 -3.33 24.82
Feb-22 252.30 23,076 -2.10 36.67
Jan-22 257.70 23,574 0.00 44.86
Dec-21 257.70 23,569 1.62 46.67
Nov-21 253.60 23,197 3.93 43.44
Oct-21 244.00 22,319 9.22 38.17
Sep-21 223.40 20,432 5.33 27.08
Aug-21 212.10 19,405 -0.42 18.76
Jul-21 213.00 19,482 -2.56 23.55
Jun-21 218.60 19,997 -1.31 34.28
May-21 221.50 20,260 4.63 48.16
Apr-21 211.70 19,360 8.34 54.30
Mar-21 195.40 17,876 5.85 26.23
Feb-21 184.60 16,885 3.77 17.88
Jan-21 177.90 16,269 1.25 15.15
Dec-20 175.70 16,072 -0.62 14.17
Nov-20 176.80 16,168 0.11 16.70
Oct-20 176.60 16,156 0.46 15.42
Sep-20 175.80 16,081 -1.57 15.20
Aug-20 178.60 16,339 3.60 15.82
Jul-20 172.40 15,765 5.90 12.53
Jun-20 162.80 14,895 8.90 6.27
May-20 149.50 13,672 8.97 -1.84
Apr-20 137.20 12,548 -11.37 -9.14
Mar-20 154.80 14,164 -1.15 4.38
Feb-20 156.60 14,322 1.36 6.17
Jan-20 154.50 14,131 0.39 4.60
Dec-19 153.90 14,076 1.58 2.53
Nov-19 151.50 13,862 -0.98 -0.13
Oct-19 153.00 13,999 0.26 -0.46
Sep-19 152.60 13,958 -1.04 0.00
Aug-19 154.20 14,104 0.65 1.18
Jul-19 153.20 14,017 0.00 2.54
Jun-19 153.20 14,016 0.59 4.08
May-19 152.30 13,931 0.86 4.03
Apr-19 151.00 13,814 1.82 4.43
Mar-19 148.30 13,569 0.54 3.92
Feb-19 147.50 13,491 -0.14 3.22
Jan-19 147.70 13,506 -1.60 3.36
https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Q1-2024-Cox-Automotive-Industry-Insights-and-Forecast-Call-Presentation.pdf

June 2024

Used

  • Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down in June compared to May. The seasonal adjustment to the index mitigated the impact on the month, resulting in values that declined 0.6% month over month for the second time in a row. The non-adjusted price in June decreased by 2.2% compared to May, moving the unadjusted average price down 10.0% year over year.[20]
  • Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased an aggregate of 1.5%, including a decline of only 0.2% in the last week of the month. Those same four weeks delivered an average decrease of 0.5% between 2014 and 2019, showing that depreciation trends are currently running higher than long-term averages for the year.
  • Over the month of June, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 97.8%, meaning market prices stayed below MMR values again this month. Against May, valuation models in June moved down a point on MMR retention. '
  • The average daily sales conversion rate rose to 57.4%, a rise over the previous month and higher than is normally seen at this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 51.4% in June over the past two years.
  • The average retail listing price for a used vehicle was down 1% over the last four weeks.

New

  • In June, according to data released today by Kelley Blue Book, the average transaction price (ATP) for a new vehicle in the U.S. was $48,644. The June ATP was higher by $266 (0.6%) from the revised May ATP and lower by $307 (0.6%) compared to June 2023. In June, the new-vehicle ATP was lower year over year for the ninth straight month. [21]
  • Incentives – measured as a percent of ATP – were lower in June than in May. The average new-vehicle incentive package, which includes discounts and rebates, fell to 6.4% of ATP ($3,102) last month, down from 6.7% in May but higher than one year ago when incentives were 4.2% of ATP ($2,036).
  • In June, 40% of vehicles transacted for below $40,000, and 26% transacted or between $30-and-$40,000.  According to Kelley Blue Book estimates, among the top ten best-selling vehicles in June, half carried ATPs below $40,000 – the Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-V, Toyota Camry, Honda Civic and Chevrolet Trax.
  • In June, the average price paid for a new electric vehicle (EV) was $56,371, an increase of 0.9% compared to May. EV prices in June were lower by 2.5% versus June 2023.

Inventory

Historical Releases: US Auto Inventory: Historical Releases

Date New Vehicles Used Vehicles
Inventory Days Supply Inventory Days Supply
Millions Millions
2024-09-01 2.76[10][10] 81 2.15[11] 47
2024-08-01 2.84[22] 77 2.18[22] 42
2024-07-01 2.79[14] 68 2.17[15] 41
2024-06-01
2024-05-01
2024-04-01
2024-03-01
2024-02-01
2024-01-01 2.61
2023-12-01 2.66[18] 70 2.39[19] 56
2023-11-01
2023-10-01
2023-09-01 2.07
2023-08-01
2023-07-01
2023-06-01
2023-05-01
2023-04-01
2023-03-01
2023-02-01
2023-01-01
2022-12-01
2022-11-01
2022-10-01
2022-09-01
2022-08-01
2022-07-01
2022-06-01
2022-05-01
2022-04-01
2022-03-01
2022-02-01
2022-01-01

September 2024

New

A new-vehicle days’ supply of 81 at the start of October is just one day more than the 80 days we saw back at the beginning of October 2019. Days’ supply continues to run below the average 83 days we saw in the first six months of the year.

The total U.S. supply of available unsold new vehicles opened October at 2.76 million units. This is up 25% year over year but down 20% from 2019 levels. Keep in mind that most dealerships have approximately 37% fresh MY25 product on their showroom floors, with automakers providing more incentives to move older metal.

724aaf7fe1ef299cae82b8f5939b18da35765a66 2 1035x508.png
https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-september-2024/

Used

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-september-2024/

June 2024

Used

https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Cox-Automotive-Mid-Year-Review-Presentation.pdf

New

https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Cox-Automotive-Mid-Year-Review-Presentation.pd

Affordability

US Auto Affordability: Historical Releases

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/march-2024-vai/
https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Sept-26-Q3-2023-Cox-Automotive-Industry-Insights-Presentation.pdf

September 2024

  • The estimated average auto loan rate declined in August by 41 basis points to 9.95%1, the lowest average rate in more than a year.[23]
  • The typical payment in August declined 1.6% to $737, the lowest in two years.
  • The number of median weeks of income needed to purchase the average new vehicle declined to 36.1 weeks from a downwardly revised 36.8 weeks in July, reaching the lowest level since May 2021.

June 2024

  • The typical monthly payment increased by 0.6% to $756, and the number of median weeks of income needed to purchase the average new vehicle rose to 37.2 weeks from 37.1 weeks in May. The average monthly payment had previously peaked at $795 in December 2022.
  • The estimated number of weeks of median income needed to purchase the average new vehicle in June was down 6.3% from the same time last year.[24]

March 2024

Along with the decrease in average rate, income growth continued, the average new-vehicle transaction price declined, and incentives increased. The typical payment decreased by 1.2%, and the number of median weeks of income needed to purchase the average new vehicle declined to 36.9 weeks from an upwardly revised 37.5 weeks in February.[25]

  • The typical new vehicle loan interest rate declined 15 basis points to 10.47% in March, which was the lowest average since September. The median income grew 0.3%, while the average new-vehicle transaction price declined 0.1%. As a result of these changes, the estimated typical monthly payment decreased by 1.2% to $744 from $753 in February. The average monthly payment peaked at $795 in December 2022.
  • The estimated number of weeks of median income needed to purchase the average new vehicle in March was down 6.2% from last year.

Auto Loan Performance

US Auto Loan Performance: Historical Releases

Auto Loans

[26]
Date Consumer Auto Loan Motor Vehicle Loans Owned and Securitized[27]
Trillions Q/Q Level Trillions Q/Q Ann Y/Y Billions Q/Q Level Billions Q/Q Ann Y/Y
2024-04-01 1.626 0.010 2.50 2.78 1,565 10.73 2.79% 1.95%
2024-01-01 1.616 0.009 2.26 3.46 1,554 -0.92 -0.24% 2.51%
2023-10-01 1.607 0.012 3.04 3.54 1,555 3.00 0.78% 3.72%
2023-07-01 1.595 0.013 3.33 4.66 1,552 17.18 4.55% 5.11%
2023-04-01 1.582 0.020 5.22 5.33 1,535 18.75 5.04% 6.22%
2023-01-01 1.562 0.010 2.60 6.33 1,516 16.89 4.58% 7.50%
2022-10-01 1.552 0.028 7.55 6.45 1,499 22.59 6.26% 7.67%
2022-07-01 1.524 0.022 5.99 5.61 1,477 31.71 9.07% 7.11%
2022-04-01 1.502 0.033 9.29 6.15 1,445 34.64 10.19% 6.80%
2022-01-01 1.469 0.011 3.05 6.30 1,411 17.85 5.23% 13.69%
2021-10-01 1.458 0.015 4.22 6.11 1,393 13.84 4.08% 13.74%
2021-07-01 1.443 0.028 8.15 6.10 1,379 25.74 7.83% 13.17%
2021-04-01 1.415 0.033 9.90 5.60 1,353 112.37 41.45% 13.00%
2021-01-01 1.382 0.008 2.35 2.37 1,241 16.31 5.44% 4.80%
2020-10-01 1.374 0.014 4.18 3.31 1,224 6.00 1.99% 3.40%
2020-07-01 1.360 0.020 6.11 3.03 1,218 21.02 7.21% 3.66%
2020-04-01 1.340 -0.010 -2.93 3.08 1,197 13.51 4.64% 3.23%
2020-01-01 1.350 0.020 6.15 5.47 1,184 -0.23 -0.08% 3.47%
2019-10-01 1.330 0.010 3.06 4.72 1,184 8.70 3.00% 3.91%

Deliquencies

[28]

Credit Quality

[29][30]
[31][32]

Cox Developments

June 2024

Auto loan performance deteriorated in June, as delinquencies and defaults increased.[33]

  • In June, 1.81% of auto loans were severely delinquent, an increase from 1.80% in May, but not back to the higher levels we saw in March and February.
  • Defaults increased 3.6% in total in June and were up 12.6% year over year.
  • The June annualized default rate was 2.92%, 10 basis points (BPs) higher than May and higher than the 2.49% annualized default rate in 2019.
  • The year-to-date default rate is 3.07%, which is 17 BPs higher than the default rate in 2019.

March 2024

  • In March, 1.88% of auto loans were severely delinquent. That was down from 2.04% in February and was the highest rate for March, dating back to at least 2006.[34]
  • 7.25% of subprime loans were severely delinquent in March, down from 7.99% in February, but also at the highest rate for March dating back to at least 2006.
  • Defaults increased in March by 8.5% from February and were up 33.4% year over year. Defaults of subprime auto loans increased by 13.9% and were up 28% year over year. The annualized default rate for March was 3.40%, which was 26 basis points higher than February and higher than the 2.90% annualized default rate in March 2019. The year-to-date default rate is 3.23%, which is equivalent to the default rate in 2010.
  • Credit access is tighter than a year ago in all channels and most lender types. By channel, certified pre-owned loans saw the most loosening, while used loans through independent dealers saw the least amount of loosening. On a year-over-year basis, all channels were tighter, with used loans through franchised dealers having seen the most tightening. Among lenders, captives loosened the most in March, but auto-focused finance companies were the only lenders to be looser year over year.

Credit Standards[35]

Tightening Standards are increasing significantly for auto loan since last year, but still below levels seen during the pandemic.

Q1 2023[36]

  • Moderate net shares of banks reported tighter standards for auto.
  • Banks reported tightening most queried terms on auto loans, on net. In particular, a moderate net share of banks reported wider interest rate spreads on such loans, while modest net shares reported higher minimum repayments and higher minimum credit score requirements.

Forecasts

Forecast 2024

September 2024

Screenshot 2024-10-11 170706.png

June 2024

https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Cox-Automotive-Mid-Year-Review-Presentation.pdf

March 2024

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/2024-cox-automotive-forecasts-full-year/

December 2023

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/2024-cox-automotive-forecasts-full-year/

Forecast 2023

March 2023

Sales
  • With new-vehicle inventory levels improving as demand slows, Cox Automotive forecasts 3% YoY new-vehicle sales growth in 2023, with the market hitting 14.2 million units.
  • For used cars, it expects YoY growth of -1.66% to reach 36.2 million units in 2023. [37]
Prices
  • JPM research expects prices to decline by 2.5% to 5% for new cars and by 10% to 20% for used cars in 2023.[38]
  • Cox Automotive expects a 1.6% increase in the December YoY MANHEIM USED VEHICLE VALUE INDEX. [37]

June 2023

  • The total used-vehicle sales forecast for 2023 has been revised down slightly by Cox Automotive to be 35.7 million, 2% below 2022.
  • Cox Automotive raised its new car sales full-year forecast to 15 million, from 14.2 million in March, as deliveries to businesses and rental-car companies, which evaporated during pandemic scarcity, rebounded.
  • Used car index down -1.1% Y/Y on December 2023.

September 2023

  • The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index forecast is expected to finish the year down 2.2% year over year. Risks remain in the fourth quarter, including the United Auto Workers strike, a possible economic slowdown, and political uncertainty that puts downward pressure on consumer sentiment.[39]
  • The total used-vehicle sales forecast for 2023 remained the same by Cox Automotive to be 35.7 million, 2% below 2022.
  • Cox Automotive raised its new car sales full-year forecast to 15.4 million, from 15 million in June.

Auto Industry behaviour during recession

See: Auto Industry Cyclicality

References

  1. ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/LightVehicleSales?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
  2. ↑ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i4ExbgRuG_nwDKnq1gJyTMi21X2sCf7qdA49zbHTDQU/edit?gid=0#gid=0&range=D1
  3. ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA
  4. ↑ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i4ExbgRuG_nwDKnq1gJyTMi21X2sCf7qdA49zbHTDQU/edit?gid=0#gid=0&range=L1
  5. ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ALTSALES
  6. ↑ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-retail-vehicle-sales-june-2024/
  7. ↑ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-retail-vehicle-sales-march-2024/
  8. ↑ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q1-2024-ev-sales/
  9. ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/ManheimUsedCarsIndex?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-september-2024/
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-september-2024/
  12. ↑ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-august-2024/
  13. ↑ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-august-2024/
  14. ↑ 14.0 14.1 https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-july-2024/
  15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-july/
  16. ↑ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/june-2024-atp-report/
  17. ↑ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-june-2024/
  18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-december-2023/
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-december-2023/
  20. ↑ https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/june-2024-muvvi/
  21. ↑ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/june-2024-atp-report/
  22. ↑ 22.0 22.1 https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-august-2024/
  23. ↑ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/august-2024-vai/
  24. ↑ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/june-2024-vai/
  25. ↑ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/march-2024-vai/
  26. ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/AutoLoans_1?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
  27. ↑ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i4ExbgRuG_nwDKnq1gJyTMi21X2sCf7qdA49zbHTDQU/edit?gid=1458970427#gid=1458970427&range=K1
  28. ↑ https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/investmentwiki/viz/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/AutoDeliquencies#1
  29. ↑ https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/investmentwiki/viz/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/AutoLoanOriginationsbyRiskScore#1
  30. ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/AutoLoanOriginationsbyRiskScore2?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
  31. ↑ https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/investmentwiki/viz/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/AutoLoanOriginationsbyRiskScore#1
  32. ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/USAutomotiveIndustry_17231340099960/ShareAutoLoanOriginationsbyFICOScore2?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
  33. ↑ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-07-15-24/
  34. ↑ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-04-15-24/
  35. ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STDSAUTO
  36. ↑ https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202301.htm
  37. ↑ 37.0 37.1 https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Jan-12-2023-Cox-Automotive-Industry-Insights-and-Forecast-Call-Presentation.pdf High Quality Source
  38. ↑ https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/when-will-car-prices-drop#:~:text=Average%20prices%20were%20up%2042.5,to%2020%25%20for%20used%20cars
  39. ↑ https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/september-2023-muvvi/
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