Automotive Industry

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Regions:

Overview over the global Automotive Industry

Automotive Industry:United States

Automotive Industry:China

Automotive Industry:Europe

Sales Outlook

S&P Global forecast (October 9, 2023)

• S&P Global forecasts that global light vehicle sales will grow by 5%-7% to 82.9 million-84.4 million vehicles in 2023 (revised up from 81.3 million-82.9 million units) and by 1%-3% year-over-year in 2024 (revised down from 3-5%).
• The revised forecast for 2023 is due to surge in sales due to pent-up demand associated with easing supply chain issues.
• 2024-2025 sales forecasts has been revised down due to sales in China that is back to pre-pandemic levels (and stalling growth) and expectations that North-America and Europe will not go back to the pre-pandemic levels even by 2025.
  

J.D Power forecast (September 28, 2023)

• According to J.D Power, global light vehicle sales is projected to grow by 8% year-over-year to 87.9 million units in 2023 (revised up from 86.8 million units or +6.6% y/y) and by 4.2% year-over-year to 91.6 million units in 2024 (revised up from 90.2 million units or +3.9% y/y).
• The forecast has been raised mainly due to the current price wars in China that would likely increase demand.
• J.D Power is an American data analytics, consumer intelligence, and software company that was founded in 1968.

Production

2022

(K)	2022	2021	% change 22/ 21	% share 2022
Europe	16,391	16,480	-0.5	19.2
Greater China	27,222	26,411	+3.1	31.9
Japan and South Korea	11,334	11,065	+2.4	13.3
Middle East and Africa	2,294	2,103	+9.1	2.7
North America	14,901	13,596	+9.6	17.4
South America	3,025	2,796	+8.2	3.5
South Asia	10,230	8,356	+22.4	12.0
WORLD	85,397	80,806	+5.7	100.0

Passenger Cars

https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA_Pocket_Guide_2023-2024.pdf

Commercial Vehicles

https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA_Pocket_Guide_2023-2024.pdf

2021

(K)	2021	2020	% change 21/ 20	% share 2021
Europe	16,247	17,070	-4.8	20.5
Greater China	25,553	25,533	+0.1	32.3
Japan/Korea	10,990	11,361	-3.3	13.9
Middle East/Africa	1,990	1,809	+10.0	2.5
North America	13,518	13,484	+0.2	17.1
South America	2,729	2,361	+15.6	3.5
South Asia	8,055	6,466	+24.6	10.2
WORLD	79,081	78,084	+1.3	100.0

Passenger Cars

https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA_Pocket_Guide_2022-2023.pdf

	2021	2020	% change 21/20	% share 2021
EUROPE	13,318,257	14,118,338	-5.7	21.1
European Union	10,012,259	10,779,146	-7.1	15.9
United Kingdom	853,495	909,802	-6.2	1.4
Russia	1,343,911	1,252,300	+7.3	2.1
Turkey	788,233	845,103	-6.7	1.2
Ukraine	7,342	4,193	+75.1	0.01
Others: Europe6	313,017	327,794	-4.5	0.5
NORTH AMERICA	9,454,621	9,688,779	-2.4	15.0
of which the United States	6,329,936	6,139,465	+3.1	10.0
SOUTH AMERICA	1,949,161	1,752,090	+11.2	3.1
of which Brazil	1,707,881	1,607,175	+6.3	2.7
ASIA	36,808,736	34,506,898	+6.7	58.3
China	20,737,612	19,362,886	+7.1	32.8
Japan	6,617,765	6,962,099	-4.9	10.5
India	3,561,580	2,777,840	+28.2	5.6
South Korea	3,186,801	3,228,296	-1.3	5.0
Indonesia	865,857	546,379	+58.5	1.4
Thailand	728,962	625,626	+16.5	1.2
Others: Asia7	1,110,159	1,003,772	+10.6	1.8
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA	1,621,738	1,408,721	+15.1	2.6
of which Iran	979,969	866,202	+13.1	1.6
WORLD	63,152,513	61,474,826	+2.7	100.0

Commercial Vehicles

https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA_Pocket_Guide_2022-2023.pdf

New Vehicle Registrations

2022

Region In thousand units	All Vehicles				Passenger Cars				Commercial Vehicles
	2022	2021	% change 22/21	% share 2022	2022	2021	% change 22/21	% share 2022	2022	2021	% change 22/21	% share 2022
EUROPE	15,365	17,239	-10.9	18.8	12,864	14,326	-10.2	19.5	2,501	2,913	-14.1	15.7
European Union	10,863	11,582	-6.2	13.3	9,256	9,700	-4.6	14.1	1,607	1,882	-14.6	10.1
EFTA	483	504	-4.0	0.6	417	428	-2.5	0.6	66	76	-12.8	0.4
United Kingdom	1,946	2,050	-5.1	2.4	1,614	1,647	-2.0	2.5	332	402	-17.6	2.1
Russia	823	770	+6.8	1.0	593	562	+5.5	0.9	230	208	+10.4	1.4
Türkiye	749	1,787	-58.1	0.9	586	1,549	-62.2	0.9	163	238	-31.3	1.0
Ukraine	45	120	-62.7	0.1	38	106	-64.1	0.1	7	14	-51.7	0.0
Others (Europe)	456	427	+6.6	0.6	360	335	+7.6	0.5	95	92	+3.3	0.6
AMERICA	21,053	22,328	-5.7	25.8	15,570		-6.7	23.7	5,483	5,633	-2.7	34.5
North America	17,036	18,335	-7.1	20.9	12,766	13,965	-8.6	19.4	4,270	4,370	-2.3	26.9
United States only	14,366	15,583	-7.8	17.6	10,773	11,858	-9.1	16.4	3,593	3,725	-3.6	22.6
South America	4,018	3,993	+0.6	4.9	2,804	2,731	+2.7	4.3	1,213	1,263	-3.9	7.6
Brazil only	2,096	2,118	-1.0	2.6	1,573	1,558	+0.9	2.4	524	560	-6.5	3.3
ASIA	41,132	40,462	+1.7	50.4	33,952	31,959	+6.2	51.6	7,180	8,504	-15.6	45.2
China	25,018	25,564	-2.1	30.6	21,348	20,208	+5.6	32.4	3,670	5,356	-31.5	23.1
Japan	4,741	3,820	+24.1	5.8	3,804	3,117	+22.1	5.8	937	704	+33.1	5.9
India	4,190	4,443	-5.7	5.1	3,443	3,673	-6.3	5.2	748	770	-2.9	4.7
South Korea	1,700	1,736	-2.1	2.1	1,435	1,480	-3.1	2.2	265	256	+3.4	1.7
Others (Asia)	5,483	4,899	+11.9	6.7	3,923	3,481	+12.7	6.0	1,560	1,417	+10.1	9.8
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA	4,131	3,921	+5.4	5.1	3,415	3,234	+5.6	5.2	716	687	+4.2	4.5
WORLD	81,681	83,950	-2.7	100.0	65,801	66,214	-0.6	100.0	15,879	17,736	-10.5	100.0

2021

Region (K)	2021	2020	% change 21/20	% share 2021
EUROPE	17,227	17,150	+0.4	20.5
European Union	11,581	11,656	-0.6	13.8
EFTA	504	461	+9.3	0.6
United Kingdom	2,049	1,969	+4.1	2.4
Russia	1,786	1,690	+5.7	2.1
Turkey	770	794	-2.9	0.9
Ukraine	120	96	+24.2	0.1
Others: Europe	417	486	-14.2	0.5
AMERICA	22,308	21,013	+6.2	26.6
North America	18,334	17,631	+4.0	21.9
of which the United States	15,583	15,050	+3.5	18.6
South America	3,974	3,382	+17.5	4.7
of which Brazil	2,118	2,057	+3.0	2.5
ASIA	40,435	39,234	+3.1	48.2
China	25,564	25,548	+0.1	30.5
Japan	4,442	4,596	-3.4	5.3
India	3,821	2,963	+29.0	4.6
South Korea	1,736	1,894	-8.3	2.1
Others: Asia	4,871	4,233	+15.1	5.8
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA	3,916	3,293	+18.9	4.7
WORLD	83,886	80,690	+4.0	100.0

Passenger Cars

REGION (K)	2021	2020	% change 21/20	% share 2021
EUROPE	14,309	14,534	-1.5	21.6
European Union 1	9,700	9,939	-2.4	14.7
EFTA	428	388	+10.3	0.6
United Kingdom	1,647	1,631	+1.0	2.5
Russia	1,543	1,496	+3.2	2.3
Turkey	559	606	-7.7	0.8
Ukraine	101	83	+22.1	0.2
Others: Europe 2	331	392	-15.6	0.5
AMERICA	16,759	15,668	+7.0	25.3
North America 3	13,965	13,163	+6.1	21.1
of which the United States	11,858	11,234	+5.6	17.9
South America	2,794	2,505	+11.5	4.2
of which Brazil	1,552	1,612	-3.7	2.3
ASIA	31,892	30,707	+3.9	48.2
China	20,187	19,789	+2.0	30.5
Japan	3,695	3,839	-3.7	5.6
India	2,993	2,362	+26.7	4.5
South Korea	1,506	1,649	-8.6	2.3
Others: Asia 4	3,511	3,068	+14.4	5.3
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA	3,180	2,676	+18.8	4.8
WORLD	66,140	63,586	+4.0	100.0

Sales Light Vehicles

https://www.just-auto.com/industry-data/global-light-vehicle-market-ends-rising-streak/?cf-view

September 2023

• The Global Light Vehicle (LV) selling rate ended its 6-month rising streak by falling to 93 million units/year in September, from a revised figure of 100 million units in August. With 8 million units sold in September, the global LV market has grown 8.5% YoY. Year-to-date (YTD), there have been 66 million units sold, marking an increase of 10.2% YoY.
  

  https://www.just-auto.com/features/global-light-vehicle-market-ends-rising-streak/?cf-view

August 2023

• The global light-vehicle selling rate (SAAR) once again outperformed expectations and reached 99.7 million units, the highest monthly SAAR since August 2018.

• Global year-over-year growth increased 10.5% from relative strength in demand. Europe was at the top of the markets in growth, with volume up 23%, while North America growth remained strong, up 17%. Growth across Asia was also stable, most notably in Japan (17%), South Korea (15%) and China (7%).
• September is expected to have a selling rate of 90 million units, making it the fourth consecutive month above the 90-million threshold. Volume is forecasted to be up nearly 5% as growth moderates from a strong base in September 2022.
  

  https://www.just-auto.com/features/global-light-vehicle-market-sees-further-growth-in-august/?cf-view

Forecast

• As we edge toward the end of 2023, the global automotive market has consistently outperformed expectations monthly, leading to another increase to the forecast from 86.8 million units to 87.9 million units, an increase of 8% from 2022. The wildcards to the finish of 2023 are the U.S. market—which may be influenced by the ongoing UAW strike—and China, with a price war that is attracting more consumers into the new-vehicle market but is negatively affecting OEM margins.
• The lift in the forecast for 2023 has spilled into 2024, with the outlook being increased to 91.6 million units from 90.2 million. Much of the change is due to a more optimistic view of the short-term outlook in China

Forecast 2024

As 2024 approaches, S&P Global Mobility forecasts 88.3 million new vehicle sales worldwide next year as the recovery rolls on.

The forecast outlook incorporates stickier interest rates, improving supply chains, the affordability squeeze, lofty new vehicle prices, patchy consumer confidence, energy price/supply concerns, auto lending risks, and ongoing electrification growing pains.

• Global new light vehicle sales in 2024 will see a 2.8% increase year-over-year
• Europe: For 2024, S&P Global Mobility forecasts 15.1 million units, up by 2.9% y/y - reflecting economic recession risks, tighter credit conditions, easing pent-up demand, still-high car prices, and tapering EV subsidies.
• United States: US sales volumes are expected to reach 15.9 million units in 2024, an estimated increase of 2.0% from the projected 2023 level of 15.5 million units.
• Mainland China: For 2024, the market will continue to be supported by pent-up demand with gradual improvement of consumer confidence - which has not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. 2024 demand is forecasted at 26.4 million units, up a further 4.2%.
• As we transition to 2024, with inventories reaching equilibrium in many markets, global production growth is expected to slip into a mild reverse as the industry navigates recovery after a tumultuous several years. For 2024, S&P Global Mobility forecasts light vehicle production levels to decline by 0.4%, to 89.4 million units.
• S&P Global Mobility projects global sales for battery electric passenger vehicles to be on track to post 13.3 million units for 2024 - accounting for an estimated 16.2% of global passenger vehicle sales. For reference, 2023 posted an estimated 9.6 million BEVs, for 12% market share.

Current Trends

ING 2024

• In 2024, we expect this positive sales momentum to continue but at a much slower pace after a strong increase in the previous year and given a muted macroeconomic backdrop. Our cautious outlook for sales growth across the regions stems from the muted economic outlook for this year across the key geographies with consumer confidence still subdued. With interest rates remaining more elevated right now and second-hand car prices falling, demand for new vehicles is more muted.
• Anticipate that light vehicle production volumes will stay flat or increase only slightly year-onyear in 2024. This is because we believe that after the robust rates of production growth during the past two years, in excess of the respective yearly sales volumes, inventories have now been rebuilt sufficiently to allow for more balanced production volumes relative to sales volumes.
• While we anticipate margins softening in 2024 year-on-year, we do not expect, and so far the car manufacturers are not flagging, a particularly pronounced margin dilution this year either.
• Europe and also the US, face a slowdown in EV uptake compared to previous expectations. The main reason behind this is the scaling back of subsidies in large car markets, while subsidies are currently still an important driver for EV sales growth.
• The pressure on new EV prices challenges new and incumbent manufacturers to reduce costs and puts them in a THINK economic and financial analysis Article | 23 February 2024 5 difficult strategic position On the one hand, they are pressed to temporise EV production increases as conventional cars still generate higher margins. On the other hand, progress is important to secure future market share in the run-up to 2030, when EVs will likely see more traction among drivers with further improving economics and improved charging infrastructure.
• Despite the current slackening in demand, the electrification trend inevitably continues and EV rates are still expected to hit 25% in Europe (from 23%). The US is behind in the market penetration of EVs but, supported by IRA subsidies, its share is still expected to go up to 11% in 2024.

RSM Global

• It appears that the EV movement has been dealt a bit of a reality check regarding the speed of consumer adoption. The close of 2023 in North America saw a marked pullback in consumer sentiment regarding EVs, signalling to Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) that the speed of adoption of EVs may be a longer journey than anticipated.
• It is expected that OEMs will continue to invest in this technology (AV) but recognise that aspirations of fully autonomous vehicles will extend into the next decade.
• A new wave of Chinese and Indian automakers and OEMs have begun marketing their products overseas in the EU, US, and Africa, where longstanding brands like Toyota and Volkswagen are losing significant market share. This could significantly impact established European and American brands, compelling them to innovate and reconsider market strategies to stay competitive.
• The move towards non-ownership models like leasing and car-sharing will necessitate a significant strategic shift for the automotive industry.
• The increase in micro-mobility, particularly through e-bikes and e-scooters, is having a profound impact on the automotive industry, especially due to rising urbanisation.
• The growing demand for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives has been a huge driver of change within the auto industry and looks to continue doing so for the foreseeable future. New regulations in the EU and US are focussed on bringing transparency to sustainability targets.
• That being said, the transformation of the car from a simple means of transportation to a networked system on wheels is having a significant impact on the entire value chain. “Central value creation is increasingly shifting to the software and semiconductor industries, which are the main drivers of this development,” says Mühlenbruch.