Automotive Industry: Current State of EV Sales

See also: Automotive Industry | Volkswagen: Deliveries/EVs | Automotive Industry: Electric Vehicle Charging

Discussion: Automotive Industry Electric Vehicles

Developments

September 13, 2023: The European commission has started an anti-subsidy investigation into electric vehicles coming from China as European Union gets frightened over the ability of its automotive industry to compete. “Their price is kept artificially low by huge state subsidies. This is distorting our market,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. "This is distorting our market. And as we do not accept this distortion from the inside in our market, we do not accept this from the outside," She pointed out. "Europe is open to competition but not to a race to the bottom. We must defend ourselves against unfair practices," She said.

Sales Developments

1H 2023

https://www.ev-volumes.com/

A total of 6 million new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV) were delivered during the first half of 2023, an increase of +40 %. 4,27 million were pure electric BEVs and 1,76 million were PHEVs.

• EV shares continued to climb in all markets. BEVs (10 %) and PHEVs (4,1 %) stood for 14,1 % of global light vehicle sales at the close of H1, compared to 11,3 % in 2022 H1.
• China EV sales increased by +37 % in 2023 H1 y/y, compared to +82 % in 2022 vs 2021
• Sales in Western and Central Europe were up +28 % in H1 compared to just +15 % growth in 2022
• EV sales in USA and Canada are +50 % higher YTD to June than last year.
• For the full year of 2023, we expect sales of 14 million EVs, growth of +33 % over 2022, with BEVs reaching 10 million units and PHEVs 4 million units. By the end of 2023 we expect 40 million EVs in operation, counting light vehicles, 70 % of which are BEVs and 30 % PHEVs

https://www.ev-volumes.com/

• BYD nearly doubled H1 sales to 1,25 millionb units, making it #1 in the global EV sales ranking, with their 633 000 PHEV sales included. The company currently sells 17 BEV models and 8 PHEV models.
• Counting BEVs only, Tesla still leads by a wide margin with 889 000 units delivered in H1. Tesla leads global sales of BEVs by a large margin, with a share of  20,8 % in all BEVs sold worldwide. With a H1 growth of +57 %, Tesla gained EV sector share again, as did BYD.
• Some EV OEMs prioritize volume and market share growth, like BYD, Tesla, GAC (Aion) and Li Auto. Or they protect the tight margins they may have on EVs, like VW, Stellantis, Hyundai, BMW, NIO and Volvo.
• 

  https://www.ev-volumes.com/

EV Outlook

Gartner (September, 2023)

• Gartner forecasts that EV sales will grow by 34% year-over-year to 15.4 million vehicles in 2023 and by 20% year-over-year to 18.5 million vehicles in 2024.
• Proportion of EV models to total vehicles will be more than 50% by 2030, according to Gartner.

International Energy Agency (April, 2023)

According to International Energy Agency(IEA), the electric car market is seeing exponential growth. Here is a summary of its Global EV Outlook 2023 publication.

Number of EV Sales Per Year

• EV sales exceeded 10 million in 2022, accounting for 14% of all new car sales, up from around 9% in 2021 and less than 10% in 2022.
• China was the front-runner in 2022, accounting for around 60% of global electric car sales.
• More than 50% of electric cars on roads worldwide are now in China and the country has exceeded its 2025 EV target.
• Europe, the second largest EV market, saw electric car sales rise by 15% in 2022.
• United States, the third-largest EV market, saw electric car sales rise by 55% in 2022.
• Electric car sales rose by around 160% and 54% year over year in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

Source: IEA Global EV Outlook 2023

EV Sales Outlook

• Electric car sales is expected to grow by 35% year over year in 2023 to 14 million vehicles.
• In Q1 of 2023, more than 2.3 million electric cars were sold, representing a growth rate of 25% year over year.
• Therefore, electric car sales is expected to account for 18% of total car sales in 2023.
• In Q1 of 2023, electric car sales in United States rose by 60% year over year to 320,000. IEA expects this growth rate to be sustained throughout 2023, bringing the total number of electric vehicles to 1.5 million in 2023.
• China electric car sales rose by 20% year over year in Q1 of 2023. IEA expects China electric car sales to grow by 30% year over year in 202 to 8 million.
• Europe electric car sales grew by around 10% year over year in Q1 of 2023. IEA expects Europe electric car sales to increase by 25% year over year in 2023.

• Based on IEA Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the initial global share of electric vehicles was projected to be less than 25% in 2030. But the outlook has now been raised to 35% in 2030.

Goldman Sachs (February, 2023)

According to Goldman Sachs report, EV sales will account for half of new car sales worldwide by 2035 as the world accelerates its push for net-zero carbon emissions.

EV Sales Outlook

• Goldman Sachs expects the number of EV sales to grow from 2 million in 2020 to 73 million units by 2040.
• The share of EV sales as a percentage of total sales is forecasted to grow from 2% in 2020 to 61% by 2040.
• Between 2020 to 2030, EV sales is forecasted to grow by 32% annually.
• EV normalized profit is projected to grow from $6 billion in 2020 to $93 billion in 2030.

Period	Global EV sales Growth
2020	31%
2021	124%
2022	49%
2023	34%
2024	30%
2025	27%
2026	22%
2027	17%
2028	21%
2029	17%
2030	14%
2035	10%
2040	6%

Global EV Revenues

Projected EV Revenues

• According to Statista, global EV revenue is projected to rise by 4% year-over-year to 561.4 billion in 2023.
• Revenue is expected to grow by a compound annual growth rate of 10.07% between 2023-2028 to reach $906.70 billion.

Period	Total EV revenue($ billion)	Growth(%)	Battery EV revenue	Growth(%)	Plug-In EV revenue	Growth(%)
2016	44.73		26.74		17.99
2017	69.02	54.30%	42.79	60.02%	26.23	45.80%
2018	112.87	63.53%	72.55	69.55%	40.32	53.72%
2019	121.48	7.63%	85.07	17.26%	36.41	-9.70%
2020	176.08	44.95%	113.50	33.42%	62.58	71.88%
2021	352.00	99.91%	229.50	102.20%	122.50	95.75%
2022	538.80	53.07%	359.20	56.51%	179.60	46.61%
2023	561.40	4.19%	376.80	4.90%	184.60	2.78%
2024	623.40	11.04%	422.80	12.21%	200.60	8.67%
2025	687.80	10.33%	475.10	12.37%	212.70	6.03%
2026	744.70	8.27%	534.90	12.59%	209.80	-1.36%
2027	812.50	9.10%	603.10	12.75%	209.40	-0.19%
2028	906.70	11.59%	681.20	12.95%	225.50	7.69%

Average EV Prices

• According to Statista, the average price of Battery Electric Vehicle is $48,810 in 2023 versus $48,510 in 2022.
• On the other hand, the average price of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles is $63,260 in 2023 versus 63,290 in 2022.
  

  https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/electric-vehicles/worldwide

State of EV Competition

Global Market Share of EV Makers

• As of 2022, BYD lead with a market share of 18% followed by Tesla with a market share of around 13%.
• Volkswagen came third with a market share of around 8%.
  

  Source: IEA Global EV Outlook 2023

U.S Market

According S&P Global data compiled between January 2022 and January 2023, Tesla U.S market share has been declining while that of its competitors is growing. Here is a summary of the findings.

• Tesla market share declined to 54% from 72%.
• General Motors market share grew to 9.9% from 0.1%.
• Ford market share grew from 5.2% to 8.4%.
• Volkswagen's market share grew from 4.2% to 6.0%.
• Hyundai market share declined to 5.4% from 7.8%.

China Market

• According to Counterpoint Research, BYD was the top EV seller in China in 2022 with a market share of 29.7%, followed by General Motors(GM) with 8.9% and then Tesla 8.8%.The likes of Volkswagen did not appear in the top 5 list.
• According to Reuters, the combined EV market share of Audi, BMW, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz added up to only a quarter of BYD's in 2022.
  

  Source: CounterPoint Research

Top BEV Models in Q1 2023

• Tesla Model Y occupied the top position in Europe, U.S and China.
  

European Market

• Chinese brands such as BYD, Nio and Xpeng have 8% electric market share in Europe, up from 4% in 2021.
• Chinese brands are expected to capture up to 15% market share in 2025 if the trend continues.
• According to KPMG, the average price of Chinese EV sold in Europe in 2022 was $30,000, lower than Tesla's cheapest model 3 which was selling at more than $45,000.