Conference Board Leading Index
The LEI is comprised of 10 indicators that cover a wide range of economic activity, including job growth, housing construction, and stock prices. The index is designed to provide a broad-based look at the health of the economy and can be used to predict turning points in the business cycle.
When the US LEI falls more than 4 percent over a span of six months, it enters the recessionary territory. And the index 3Ds rule provides signals of impending recessions 1) when the diffusion index falls below the threshold of 50 and simultaneously 2) when the decline in the index over the most recent six months falls below the threshold of -4.0 percent. The index has an average lead time of 7 months and has a 100% track record when the Y/Y change turns negative for 2+ months in a row.
Developments
Historical Releases: Conference Board Leading Index: 2023
January 2024
- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.4 percent in January 2024 to 102.7 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent decline in December 2023.
- The LEI contracted by 3.0 percent over the six-month period between July 2023 and January 2024, a smaller decrease than the 4.1 percent decline over the previous six months.
- The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2 percent in January 2024 to 112.1 (2016=100), after a 0.2 percent increase in December 2023. The CEI expanded by 1.0 percent in the six-month period ending January 2024, down from a 0.8 percent growth rate over the previous six months.
December 2023
- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.1 percent in December 2023 to 103.1 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent decline in November. [1]
- The LEI contracted by 2.9 percent over the six-month period between June and December 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3 percent contraction over the previous six months.
- The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2 percent in December 2023 to 111.7 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in November. The CEI expanded by 1.1 percent over the second half of 2023, up from its 0.8 percent growth rate over the first half of 2023.
