Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 August
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Return to: Consumer Price Index | Historical Releases
Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
Publishing date: September 13, 2023
Key Takeaways
- Super core CPI had the biggest increase in 5 months. Transportation services continue to be the primary driver of this category, rising 2% in august.
- While used prices CPI continue to decline in august, new cars continue to show more resilience. This is also true in the avgerage transaction prices from KBB.
- Energy prices continue to increase in september, this is a category that will need constant monitoring going forward, since the FED dont have control over energy prices.
- Shelter CPI has now 5 consecutive months of declines in the annual rate, moderating to 0.3% m/m in augugst . This moderation is expected to continue since y/y is still over 7%
Outlook
Fed Cleveland
| [1] | YoY Change | MoM Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | CPI | Core CPI | CPI | Core CPI |
| Sep 2023 | 3.66 | 4.17 | 0.36 | 0.36 |
Summary
- U.S consumer price index(CPI) rose 0.6% in August, in-line with the estimate and above the 0.2% growth in July.
- Year-over-year, CPI rose 3.7% versus 3.6% estimate and above 3.2% in July.
- Core CPI rose 0.3% in June, above 0.2% estimate.
- Year-over-year, core CPI grew by 4.3%, in-line with estimate and below 4.7% in July.
Contributors
- The index for gasoline was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase, having risen 5.6% in the month, with gasoline rising 10.6%.
- Food prices rose 0.2% in August while shelter rose 0.3%.
- Used cars and trucks declined 1.2% in August, and new cars increase 0.3%.
- Supercore services rose 0.37% on the month, the highest reading since March.
- Indexes which increased in August include rent, owners’ equivalent rent, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, and personal care.
- The indexes for lodging away from home, used cars and trucks, and recreation were among those that decreased over the month.
Categories watched by the FED
| Index | M/M | Y/Y | Prev. M/M | Prev. Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Goods | -0.1% | 0.2% | -0.3% | 0.8% |
| Core Services | 0.4% | 5.9% | 0.4% | 6.1% |
| Shelter | 0.3% | 7.3% | 0.4% | 7.7% |
| Services less shelter "super-core" | 0.4%[2] | 4% | 0.2% | 4.1% |
CPI expectations
Forecasts expect the August CPI to show the headline index rose 0.6% in July, boosting the 12-month rate to 3.6% from 3.2% They see core CPI up 0.2%, same as last month, and brining y/y to 4.3% from 4.7 in July.
Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)\
- Wages are stil above historical averages and continue to increase in August, however at a slower pace.
- Energy prices continue its increase in september, it will be specially important the increase in gasoline price due to its weigth in CPI index.
- Food price index decline 2.1% m/m during august, -24% from the peak.
- Supply chain continue to be below the index’s historical average in August, but remain unchanged from previous month.
- Housing prices recorded a 5th consecutive month of price increases, increasing 0.9% month-over-month in June of 2023 (0% y/y). However, rents are down 0.5% month-over-month, 1.2% year-over-year
- Used Car prices has a small rebound in august, with a 0.2m/m increase. New cars ATP saw the same trend increasing 0.6%m/m.
The markets are pricing a pause in rates for the remaining of the year. [3]
Range:
- CPI: 3.5% - 3.8%
- Core CPI: 4.2% - 4.5%
| Escenario | Market reaction | Probability by Magaly |
| CPI below 3.4% | 2%+ rally | 5% |
| CPI between 3.4% - 3.5% | 1% Rally | 15% |
| CPI in line with expectations | Flat | 45% |
| CPI between 3.7% - 3.8% | 1-2% drop | 30% |
| CPI above 3.8% | 3% drop | 5% |
Consensus forecast
| Variable | Forecast | Previous | Actual | Market Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | Flat |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | |
| CPI (MoM) | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% |
FED Cleveland Forecast
| [4] | YoY Change | MoM Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | CPI | Core CPI | CPI | Core CPI |
| Aug 2023 | 3.82 | 4.46 | 0.79 | 0.38 |
| Sept 2023 | 3.84 | 4.29 | 0.38 | 0.37 |
Individual Forecasts
References
- ↑ https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting
- ↑ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-13/us-core-inflation-gauge-accelerates-for-first-time-in-six-months?srnd=economics-v2
- ↑ https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
- ↑ https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting