Consumer Price Index
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Forum Discussion: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/consumer-price-index-cpi
Upcoming CPI expectations
Expectations for October 2024 can be found here
Historical CPI Releases
Main article: Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases
Recent Inflation History
| Month (Release Date) | Headline [1] | M/M | Forecast | Surprise | Core [2] | M/M | Forecast | Surprise | SuperCore M/M[3] | Market Reaction | Full Release |
| October 2024 | 2.6% | 0.2% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | Link | |
| September 2024 | 2.4% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 3.3% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 0.1% | 0.404% | -0.4% | |
| August 2024 | 2.5% | 0.2% | 2.6% | -0.1% | 3.2% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.327% | -0.4% | Link |
| July 2024 | 2.9% | 0.2% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.2% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.38% | |
| June 2024 | 3.0% | -0.1% | 3.1% | 0.1% | 3.3% | 0.1% | 3.4% | 0.1% | -0.05% | 1% | |
| May 2024 | 3.3% | 0.0% | 3.4% | -0.1% | 3.4% | 0.2% | 3.5% | -0.1% | -0.045% | 1% | Link |
| April 2024 | 3.4% | 0.3% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 3.6% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 0.0% | 0.42% | 1.17% | Link |
| March 2024 | 3.5% | 0.4% | 3.4% | 0.1% | 3.8% | 0.4% | 3.7% | 0.1% | 0.65% | -0.93% | Link |
| February 2024 | 3.2% | 0.4% | 3.1% | 0.1% | 3.8% | 0.4% | 3.7% | 0.1% | 0.47% | 1.13% | Link |
| January 2024 | 3.1% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 0.2% | 3.9% | 0.3% | 3.7% | 0.2% | 0.85% | -2% | Link |
| December 2023 | 3.4% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 0.2% | 3.9% | 0.3% | 3.8% | 0.1% | 0.4% | Link | |
| November 2023 | 3.1% | 0.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 0.3% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.44% | Flat | Link |
| October 2023 | 3.2% | 0.0% | 3.3% | -0.1% | 4.0% | 0.2% | 4.1% | -0.1% | 0.21% | +2% | Link |
| September 2023 | 3.7% | 0.4% | 3.6% | 0.1% | 4.1% | 0.3% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | Flat | Link |
| August 2023 | 3.7% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 0.1% | 4.3% | 0.3% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | Flat | Link |
| July 2023 | 3.2% | 0.2% | 3.3% | -0.1% | 4.7% | 0.2% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 0.2% | Flat | Link |
| June 2023 (July 12) | 3.00% | 0.2% | 3.1% | -0.1% | 4.8% | 0.2% | 5.00% | -0.2% | 0.00% | 0.74% | Link |
| May 2023 (June 13) | 4.00% | 0.10% | 4.10% | -0.1% | 5.3% | 0.4% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | Flat | Link |
| April 2023 | 4.9% | 0.4% | 5% | -0.1% | 5.5% | 0.4% | 5.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | Flat | Link |
| March 2023 (Apr 12) | 5.0% | 0.1% | 5.2% | -0.2% | 5.6% | 0.4% | 5.6% | 0.00% | 0.3% | 1.00% | Link |
| February 2023 (Mar 14) | 6.0% | 0.40% | 6.0% | 0.00% | 5.5% | 0.50% | 5.5% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.69% | Link |
| January 2023 (Feb 14) | 6.4% | 0.50% | 6.2% | 0.20% | 5.6% | 0.40% | 5.5% | 0.10% | 0.3% | 0.14% | Link |
| December 2022 (Jan 12) | 6.50% | -0.10% | 6.50% | 0.00% | 5.7% | 0.30% | 5.70% | 0.00% | 0.4% | 0.34% | Link |
| November 2022 (Dec 13) | 7.10% | 0.10% | 7.30% | -0.20% | 6.00% | 0.20% | 6.10% | -0.10% | 0.3% | 0.7% | Link |
| October 2022 (Nov 10) | 7.70% | 0.40% | 8.00% | -0.30% | 6.30% | 0.30% | 6.50% | -0.20% | 0.2% | 5.5% | Link |
| September 2022 (Oct 13) | 8.20% | 0.40% | 8.10% | 0.10% | 6.60% | 0.60% | 6.50% | 0.10% | 0.8% | 2.6% | Link |
| August 2022 (Sep 13) | 8.30% | 0.10% | 8.10% | 0.20% | 6.30% | 0.60% | 6.10% | 0.20% | 0.5% | -4.3% | Link |
| July 2022 (Aug 10) | 8.50% | 0.00% | 8.70% | -0.20% | 5.90% | 0.30% | 6.10% | -0.20% | 0.1% | 2.1% | Link |
| June 2022 (Jul 13) | 9.10% | 1.30% | 8.80% | 0.30% | 5.90% | 0.70% | 5.70% | 0.20% | 0.7% | -0.5% | Link |
| May 2022 (Jun 10) | 8.60% | 1.00% | 8.30% | 0.30% | 6.00% | 0.60% | 5.90% | 0.10% | 0.7% | -2.9% | Link |
| April 2022 (May 11) | 8.30% | 0.30% | 8.10% | 0.20% | 6.20% | 0.60% | 6.00% | 0.20% | 0.8% | -1.7% | Link |
| March 2022 (Apr 12) | 8.50% | 1.20% | 8.40% | 0.10% | 6.50% | 0.30% | 6.60% | -0.10% | 0.7% | -0.3% | Link |
| February 2022 (Mar 10) | 7.90% | 0.80% | 7.90% | 0.00% | 6.40% | 0.50% | 5.90% | 0.50% | 0.5% | -0.4% | Link |
| January 2022 (Feb 10) | 7.50% | 0.60% | 7.30% | 0.20% | 6.00% | 0.60% | 5.90% | 0.10% | 0.5% | -1.8% | Link |
| December 2021 (Jan 12) | 7.00% | 0.50% | 7.00% | 0.00% | 5.50% | 0.60% | 5.40% | 0.10% | 0.4% | 0.3% | Link |
Definitions
Headline:
Core:
Supercore:
In a speech on November 30,2022 Fed Chair Powell referred to services less shelter as a major category of focus due to the close relationship with wages.
"Finally, we come to core services other than housing. This spending category covers a wide range of services from health care and education to haircuts and hospitality. This is the largest of our three categories, constituting more than half of the core PCE index. Thus, this may be the most important category for understanding the future evolution of core inflation. Because wages make up the largest cost in delivering these services, the labor market holds the key to understanding inflation in this category." [4]
Weighing of CPI components
| Item | 2023 Weights |
| Food | 13.531 |
| Energy | 6.921 |
| Commodities less food and energy | 21.361 |
| - Home Furnishing and Supplies | 3.397 |
| - Apparel | 2.479 |
| - New Vehicles | 4.313 |
| - Used Cars | 2.668 |
| - Medical Care Commodities | 1.455 |
| - Alcoholic Beverages | 0.845 |
| - Tobacco | 0.494 |
| - Recreation Commodities | 2.291 |
| - Other Goods | 3.419 |
| Services less energy services | 58.187 |
| - Shelter | 34.413 |
| - Water and Trash Collection | 1.056 |
| - Medical care Services | 6.653 |
| - Transportation Services | 5.75 |
| - Recreation Services | 3.094 |
| - Education and Communication Services | 4.913 |
| - Other services | 2.308 |
Near-term inflation drivers
1. Wages
Past Developments: Wages
| Release Date[5] | Level | M/M | Y/Y | M/M Forecast | Y/Y Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-01 | 35.46 | 0.37 | 3.99 | 0.3% | 4% |
| 2024-09-01 | 35.33 | 0.31 | 3.88 | 0.3% | 3.8% |
| 2024-08-01 | 35.22 | 0.43 | 3.86 | 0.3% | 3.8% |
| 2024-07-01 | 35.07 | 0.23 | 3.63 | 0.3% | 3.7% |
| 2024-06-01 | 34.99 | 0.32 | 3.83 | 0.3% | 3.9% |
2. Supply Chains
Past developments: Supply Chain Developments
| Month[6] | Index |
|---|---|
| 31-Oct-2024 | -0.32 |
| 30-Sep-2024 | 0.11 |
| 31-Aug-2024 | 0.22 |
| 31-Jul-2024 | -0.04 |
| 30-Jun-2024 | -0.34 |
3. PPI
Past Developments: Producer Price Index
| Date[7] | PPI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Index | M/M | Y/Y | |
| 2024-09-01 | 145.17 | 0.05 | 1.76 |
| 2024-08-01 | 145.10 | 0.23 | 1.93 |
| 2024-07-01 | 144.76 | 0.03 | 2.33 |
| 2024-06-01 | 144.72 | 0.32 | 2.88 |
| 2024-05-01 | 144.26 | 0.00 | 2.55 |
4. Housing Market
Past Developments: Housing Market: US
Important to consider that shelter CPI has a big lag (6-12 months) between current market prices and the correspondent reflection in CPI.
Housing
| S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index[8] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Index | M/M | Y/Y |
| 2024-08-01 | 325.03 | -0.13 | 4.25 |
| 2024-07-01 | 325.46 | 0.01 | 4.85 |
| 2024-06-01 | 325.44 | 0.49 | 5.49 |
| 2024-05-01 | 323.86 | 0.93 | 5.99 |
Rents
| Date[9] | Overall | 1 Bedroom | 2 Bedroom | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rents | M/M | Y/Y | Rents | M/M | Y/Y | Rents | M/M | Y/Y | |
| 10/1/2024 | 1,394 | -0.71 | -0.71 | 1225 | -0.73 | -0.73 | 1380 | -0.72 | -0.72 |
| 9/1/2024 | 1,404 | -0.57 | -0.78 | 1234 | -0.48 | -0.72 | 1390 | -0.50 | -0.71 |
| 8/1/2024 | 1,412 | -0.07 | -0.77 | 1240 | -0.16 | -0.80 | 1397 | -0.14 | -0.78 |
| 7/1/2024 | 1,413 | 0.21 | -0.84 | 1242 | 0.24 | -0.80 | 1399 | 0.21 | -0.78 |
| 6/1/2024 | 1,410 | 0.43 | -0.77 | 1239 | 0.41 | -0.80 | 1396 | 0.43 | -0.78 |
5. Food Prices
Past Developments: Food Market
CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis.
| Date[10] | Food Price Index | Meat | Dairy | Cereals | Oils | Sugar | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | M/M | Y/Y | Index | Index | Index | Index | Index | |
| 2024-10 | 127.40 | 2.00 | 5.55 | 120.4 | 139.1 | 114.4 | 152.7 | 129.6 |
| 2024-09 | 124.90 | 2.63 | 2.63 | 120.8 | 136.5 | 113.6 | 142.4 | 126.3 |
| 2024-08 | 121.70 | 0.66 | -0.08 | 122.0 | 131.3 | 110.2 | 136.1 | 113.9 |
| 2024-07 | 120.90 | -0.08 | -2.81 | 120.0 | 127.9 | 110.7 | 135.0 | 119.5 |
| 2024-06 | 121.00 | 0.41 | -1.63 | 118.1 | 127.9 | 115.2 | 131.8 | 119.4 |
6. Energy
Past Developments: Energy Industry
| Date
Average Prices |
WTI[11] | US Regular All Formulations Gas Price[12] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollars per Barrel NSA | M/M | Y/Y | Dollars per Gallon NSA | M/M | Y/Y | |
| 2024-10-01 | 71.99 | 2.49 | -15.94 | 3.14 | -2.40 | -13.17 |
| 2024-09-01 | 70.24 | -8.40 | -21.46 | 3.21 | -5.16 | -16.21 |
| 2024-08-01 | 76.68 | -6.26 | -5.79 | 3.39 | -2.73 | -11.74 |
| 2024-07-01 | 81.80 | 2.54 | 7.53 | 3.48 | 0.84 | -3.14 |
| 2024-06-01 | 79.77 | -0.31 | 13.55 | 3.46 | -4.11 | -3.25 |
7. Car Prices
Past Developments: Automotive Industry:United States
| Date | Used Car Index | New Car Average Transaction Prices | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index (1/97 = 100) | Manheim Index $ amount SA | Index % MoM | Index % YoY | ATP | M/M | Y/Y | |
| Oct-24 | 202.80 | 18,552 | -0.10 | -3.15 | 48,398 | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Sep-24 | 203.00 | 18,565 | -0.44 | -5.27 | 48,397 | 0.8% | -0.4% |
| Aug-24 | 203.90 | 18,654 | 1.14 | -3.91 | 47,997 | -0.35% | -1.17% |
| July-24 | 201.60 | 18,441 | 2.80 | -4.77 | 48,166 | -0.5% | -0.26% |
| Jun-24 | 196.10 | 17,934 | -0.61 | -8.83 | 48,424[13] | 0.1% | -1.08% |
8. Import Prices
Past Developments: Import Prices
| Date | Import Prices | Import Prices M/M | Import Prices Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|
| Default Units Index 2000=100 NSA[14] | |||
| 2024-09-01 | 140.80 | -0.42 | -0.14 |
| 2024-08-01 | 141.40 | -0.21 | 0.78 |
| 2024-07-01 | 141.70 | 0.07 | 1.65 |
| 2024-06-01 | 141.60 | 0.07 | 1.58 |
9. PMIs Price Index
Past developments: ISM Prices Paid
| Prices Paid | ||
|---|---|---|
| Month | PMI Manufacturing[15][16] | PMI Services[17][18] |
| Oct-24 | 54.8 | 58.1 |
| Sep-24 | 48.3 | 59.4 |
| Aug-24 | 54 | 57.3 |
| July-24 | 52.9 | 57 |
| Jun-24 | 52.1 | 56.3 |
| May-24 | 57 | 58.1 |
| Apr-24 | 60.9 | 59.2 |
| Mar-24 | 55.8 | 53.4 |
| Feb-24 | 52.5 | 58.6 |
| Jan-24 | 52.9 | 64 |
| Dec-23 | 45.2 | 57.4 |
CPI During Recession
Lower demand
The slowing in demand the economy has started to experience will help put downside pressure on prices. The pricing power companies experienced during 2022 will diminish as demand declines, especially on discretionary items.
- Spending is expected to continue slowing as excess savings decline, debt cost increases (more income will go towards debt service), and banks start to tighten lending conditions[19].
- In terms of the possibility of a recession, historically, inflation has come down on average 6.8% in a recession since 1923.
Long term inflation drivers
References:
- ↑ https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733
- ↑ https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-cpi-736
- ↑ https://sites.google.com/view/pskrzypczynski/home/cpi-core-services-less-shelter-inflation-in-the-u-s
- ↑ https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20221130a.htm
- ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003
- ↑ https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive
- ↑ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzvIAz6CBS78vH1moNA-foaZA0HWOb-AG1DfvCUJDio/edit?gid=1447472164#gid=1447472164&range=EB1
- ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
- ↑ https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data?utm_source=twitter.com
- ↑ https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
- ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO
- ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW
- ↑ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/june-2024-atp-report/
- ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IR
- ↑ https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-manufacturing-prices-174
- ↑ https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-prices
- ↑ https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-non-manufacturing-prices-1049
- ↑ https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-non-manufacturing-prices
- ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRTSCLCC