Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 September
Return to: Consumer Price Index | Historical Releases
Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Publishing date: October 12, 2023
Summary
- Consumer price index(CPI) rose 0.4% in September, exceeding 0.3% estimate but below 0.6% growth in August.
- Year-over-year, CPI was unchanged from August’s 3.7%, but above 3.6% estimate.
- Core CPI rose 0.3% in September, unchanged from August and in-line with estimate.
- Year-over-year, core CPI grew by 4.1%, in-line with estimate and below 4.3% in August.
- Shelter contributed to most of the growth in CPI, having risen 0.6% on the month and 7.2% year-over-year.
- Energy was also one of the main factors behind the inflation increase in September, having risen 1.5%.
- Supercore services 2 rose 0.6% in September versus 0.4% in August.
Contributors
- The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting forover half of the increase.
- An increase in the gasoline index was also a major contributor to the all items monthly rise. While the major energy component indexes were mixed in September, the energy index rose 1.5 percent over the month.
- The food index increased 0.2 percent in September, as it did in the previous two months. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent.
- Indexes which increased in September include rent, owners' equivalent rent, lodging away from home, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, personal care, and new vehicles.
- The indexes for used cars and trucks and for apparel were among those that decreased over the month.
Categories watched by the FED
| Index | M/M | Y/Y | Prev. M/M | Prev. Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Goods | -0.4% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.2% |
| Core Services | 0.6% | 5.7% | 0.4% | 5.9% |
| Shelter | 0.6% | 7.2% | 0.3% | 7.3% |
| Services less shelter "super-core" | 0.61% | 3.86% | 0.4%[1] | 4% |
CPI expectations
Forecasts expect the September CPI to show the headline index rose 0.3% m/m, mantaining the 12-month rate to 3.6% from 3.7% in august. They see core CPI up 0.3%, same as last month, and brining y/y to 4.1% from 4.3 in August.
Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)
- Wages are stil above historical averages and continue to increase in August, however at a slower pace.
- Energy prices continue to increase in september, it will be first time in months that the y/y increase prices is positive.
- Food price index was unchanhed m/m during september , continue to be -24% from the peak, and -10% y/y
- Supply chain issues continue to be below the index’s historical average in september, but saw an increase in during september.
- Housing prices recorded a 6th consecutive month of price increases, increasing 0.6% month-over-month in July of 2023 (1% y/y). Rents are down 0.5% month-over-month, 1.2% year-over-year
- Used Car prices had a sigificant increase of 1% m/m in september, is down -3.9 over the year.
The markets are still pricing a pause in rates for the remaining of the year. [2]
Range:
- CPI: 3.5% - 3.8%
- Core CPI: 4.0% - 4.2%
| Escenario | Market reaction | Probability by Magaly |
| CPI below 3.4% | 2%+ rally | 5% |
| CPI between 3.4% - 3.5% | 1% Rally | 15% |
| CPI in line with expectations | Flat | 45% |
| CPI between 3.7% - 3.8% | 1-2% drop | 30% |
| CPI above 3.8% | 3% drop | 5% |
Consensus forecast
| Variable | Forecast | Previous | Actual | Market Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.1% | |
| CPI (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
FED Cleveland Forecast
| [3] | YoY Change | MoM Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | CPI | Core CPI | CPI | Core CPI |
| Sept 2023 | 3.69 | 4.17 | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| Oct 2023 | 3.41 | 4.19 | 0.21 | 0.34 |
References
- ↑ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-13/us-core-inflation-gauge-accelerates-for-first-time-in-six-months?srnd=economics-v2
- ↑ https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
- ↑ https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting