Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 January
Return to: Consumer Price Index | Historical Releases | Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 December
Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_02132024.htm
Publishing date: February 13, 2024.
Results:
| Variable | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (MoM) | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% |
| CPI (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% |
- CPI rose 0.3% in January, up from 0.1% in December (revised down from 0.3%) and above 0.2% estimate.
- Yearly, CPI rose 3.1% on the month, down from 3.4% in December but higher than 2.9% estimate.
- Core CPI accelerated 0.4% in January and was up 3.9% y/y, both exceeding estimates for a 0.3% and 3.7% increase.
- More than two-thirds of the increase came from shelter, which rose 0.6% on the month (December: +0.4%).
- Stock futures fell after the release. S&P 500 futures dropped by 1.3%, Nasdaq Composite shed 1.7% while Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.9%.
- Supercore inflation accelerated 1 to 4.3% y/y from 3.9% in December.
Contributions:
Core CPI
6M Annualized Rates
By FED Categories
| Index | M/M | Y/Y | Prev. M/M | Prev. Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Goods | -0.3% | -0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Core Services | 0.7% | 5.4% | 0.4% | 5.3% |
| Shelter | 0.6% | 6.0% | 0.5% | 6.2% |
| Services less shelter "super-core" | 0.85% | 4.3% | 0.4% | 3.9% |
CPI expectations
Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)
- Wages had a significant surprise to the upside in January, reaching a 4.5% growth again.
- Energy prices were mixed during the month, with oil increasing 3.13% m/m but gasolince prices down -1.87% m/m.
- Food prices decline 1% during January, 10.4% y/y.
- Supply chain index rose a bit during January, but remains stable. We have to keep monitoring the current increase in shipping rates, since it can have an impact on inflation later on.
- Housing prices recorded its first monthly decline in 10 months with a -0.2 m/m, but y/y remains high at 5.1%. Rents are down 0.3% month-over-month, down 1% year-over-year
- Used car prices remained flat during January, but recorded a 9.2% decline y/y. While new car prices decline 2.6% from december to january, they are donw 3.5% y/y.
The markets are pricing rate cuts starting on March and 6 in total in 2024.
Range:
- CPI: 2.8% - 3.1%
- Core CPI: 3.6% - 3.9%
| Escenario | Market reaction | Probability by Magaly |
| CPI below 2.8% | 3%+ rally | 5% |
| CPI at 2.8% | 2% Rally | 10% |
| CPI in line with expectations | Flat | 50% |
| CPI 3.0% | 1-2% drop | 30% |
| CPI above 3.1% | 3% drop | 5% |
Consensus forecast
| Variable | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 3.7% | 3.9% |
| CPI (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.9% | 3.4% |
FED Cleveland Forecast
| [2] | YoY Change | MoM Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | CPI | Core CPI | CPI | Core CPI |
| Jan 2024 | 2.94% | 3.81% | 0.13% | 0.32% |
| Feb 2023 | 2.86% | 3.64% | 0.33% | 0.31% |
