Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 January

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Return to: Consumer Price Index | Historical Releases | Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 December

Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_02132024.htm

Publishing date: February 13, 2024.

Results:

Variable Actual Forecast Previous
Core CPI (MoM) 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Core CPI (YoY) 3.9% 3.7% 3.9%
CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
CPI (YoY) 3.1% 2.9% 3.4%
  • CPI rose 0.3% in January, up from 0.1% in December (revised down from 0.3%) and above 0.2% estimate.
  • Yearly, CPI rose 3.1% on the month, down from 3.4% in December but higher than 2.9% estimate.
  • Core CPI accelerated 0.4% in January and was up 3.9% y/y, both exceeding estimates for a 0.3% and 3.7% increase.
  • More than two-thirds of the increase came from shelter, which rose 0.6% on the month (December: +0.4%).
  • Stock futures fell after the release. S&P 500 futures dropped by 1.3%, Nasdaq Composite shed 1.7% while Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.9%.
  • Supercore inflation accelerated 1 to 4.3% y/y from 3.9% in December.

Contributions:

https://twitter.com/WarrenPies/status/1757405995888771082/photo/1

Core CPI

https://twitter.com/KathyJones/status/1757399271983259995/photo/1

6M Annualized Rates

[1]

By FED Categories

Index M/M Y/Y Prev. M/M Prev. Y/Y
Core Goods -0.3% -0.3% 0.0% 0.2%
Core Services 0.7% 5.4% 0.4% 5.3%
Shelter 0.6% 6.0% 0.5% 6.2%
Services less shelter "super-core" 0.85% 4.3% 0.4% 3.9%
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1757400930905899319/photo/1
https://twitter.com/ces921/status/1757399883059708066/photo/1

CPI expectations

Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)

  • Wages had a significant surprise to the upside in January, reaching a 4.5% growth again.
  • Energy prices were mixed during the month, with oil increasing 3.13% m/m but gasolince prices down -1.87% m/m.
  • Food prices decline 1% during January, 10.4% y/y.
  • Supply chain index rose a bit during January, but remains stable. We have to keep monitoring the current increase in shipping rates, since it can have an impact on inflation later on.
  • Housing prices recorded its first monthly decline in 10 months with a -0.2 m/m, but y/y remains high at 5.1%. Rents are down 0.3% month-over-month, down 1% year-over-year
  • Used car prices remained flat during January, but recorded a 9.2% decline y/y. While new car prices decline 2.6% from december to january, they are donw 3.5% y/y.

The markets are pricing rate cuts starting on March and 6 in total in 2024.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Range:

  • CPI: 2.8% - 3.1%
  • Core CPI: 3.6% - 3.9%
Escenario Market reaction Probability by Magaly
CPI below 2.8% 3%+ rally 5%
CPI at 2.8% 2% Rally 10%
CPI in line with expectations Flat 50%
CPI 3.0% 1-2% drop 30%
CPI above 3.1% 3% drop 5%

Consensus forecast

Variable Forecast Previous
Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.3%
Core CPI (YoY) 3.7% 3.9%
CPI (MoM) 0.2% 0.3%
CPI (YoY) 2.9% 3.4%

FED Cleveland Forecast

[2] YoY Change MoM Change
Month CPI Core CPI CPI Core CPI
Jan 2024 2.94% 3.81% 0.13% 0.32%
Feb 2023 2.86% 3.64% 0.33% 0.31%

Individual Institutions

https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1757099062845714485/photo/1

References

  1. ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/Inflation_17077682560160/Sheet2?:language=en-US&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
  2. ↑ https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting
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