CPI expectations
Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)
Range:
- CPI: 2.2% - 2.4%
- Core CPI: 3.1% - 3.3%
| Escenario
|
Market reaction
|
Probability by Magaly
|
| CPI below 2.2%
|
1.5%+ rally
|
5%
|
| CPI at 2.2%
|
0.75% Rally
|
30%
|
| CPI in line with expectations
|
Flat
|
50%
|
| CPI at 2.4%
|
0.75% drop
|
10%
|
| CPI above 2.4%
|
1% drop
|
5%
|
Consensus forecast
| Variable
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
| Core CPI (MoM)
|
0.2%
|
0.3%
|
| Core CPI (YoY)
|
3.2%
|
3.2%
|
| CPI (MoM)
|
0.1%
|
0.2%
|
| CPI (YoY)
|
2.3%
|
2.5%
|
FED Cleveland Forecast
| [1]
|
YoY Change
|
MoM Change
|
| Month
|
CPI
|
Core CPI
|
CPI
|
Core CPI
|
| September 2024
|
2.25
|
3.11
|
0.11
|
0.27
|
| October 2024
|
2.35
|
3.13
|
0.17
|
0.26
|
Individual Institutions Forecast
References
