Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 September

CPI expectations

Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)

Range:

• CPI: 2.2% - 2.4%
• Core CPI: 3.1% - 3.3%

Escenario	Market reaction	Probability by Magaly
CPI below 2.2%	1.5%+ rally	5%
CPI at 2.2%	0.75% Rally	30%
CPI in line with expectations	Flat	50%
CPI at 2.4%	0.75% drop	10%
CPI above 2.4%	1% drop	5%

Consensus forecast

Variable	Forecast	Previous
Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.3%
Core CPI (YoY)	3.2%	3.2%
CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%
CPI (YoY)	2.3%	2.5%

FED Cleveland Forecast

	YoY Change		MoM Change
Month	CPI	Core CPI	CPI	Core CPI
September 2024	2.25	3.11	0.11	0.27
October 2024	2.35	3.13	0.17	0.26

Individual Institutions Forecast