Earnings Overview: 2023 Q2
Jump to navigation
Jump to search
See also: Earnings Overview | Earnings Overview: 2023 Q3
Forum: Q2 2023 Earnings Overview
Estimates
Factset
Expected Earnings and Revenue Growth by Sector[1]
Revisions from March 31 to June 30 by Sector [2]
Key Insights July 7 report[3]:
- If -7.2% y/y is the actual earnings decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest earnings decline reported by the index since Q2 2020 (-31.6%). It will also mark the third straight quarter in which the index has reported a (year-over-year) decrease in earnings.
- The estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 for Q2 2023 of -7.2% y/y today is larger than the estimate of -4.7% y/y at the start of the quarter (March 31), as estimated earnings for the index of $455.9 billion today are 2.6% below the estimate of $467.9 billion at the start of the quarter.
- In terms of estimate revisions, analysts lowered earnings estimates for Q2 2023 by a smaller margin than average during the quarter. On a per-share basis, estimated earnings for the second quarter decreased by 3.0% from March 31 to June 30. This decrease is smaller than the 5-year average of -3.4% and smaller than the 10-year average of -3.4%.
- In terms of revenues, analysts have also lowered their estimates during the quarter. As of today, the S&P 500 is expected to report a (year-over-year) revenue decline of -0.3%,compared to the expectations for flat revenues (0.0%) on March 31.
- The estimated net profit margin for the S&P 500 for Q2 2023 is 11.4%, which is equal to the 5-year average of 11.4%, but below the previous quarter’s net profit margin of 11.5% and below the year-ago net profit margin of 12.2%.
- The percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q2 2023 is 59% (67 out of 113), which is equal to the 5-year average of 59% and below the 10-year average of 64%.
- The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 18.9, which is above the 5-year average (18.6) and above the 10-year average (17.4)
- Looking ahead, analysts still expect earnings growth for the second half of 2023. For Q3 2023 and Q4 2023, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 0.3% y/y and 7.8% y/y, respectively. For all of CY 2023, analysts predict earnings growth of 0.8%.
Refinitiv
S&P 500 YoY Growth Rates
| 21Q1 | 21Q2 | 21Q3 | 21Q4 | 22Q1 | 22Q2 | 22Q3 | 22Q4 | 23Q1 | 23Q2E | 23Q3E | 23Q4E | 24Q1E | 24Q2E | 24Q3E | 24Q4E | 25Q1E | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 13.5% | 25.2% | 17.0% | 15.1% | 14.0% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 5.8% | 3.6% | -0.9% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | |||||||
| Net Income | 53.1% | 94.8% | 42.1% | 30.1% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 2.6% | -6.1% | -2.8% | -11.4% | -2.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 15.8% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 10.2% | |||||||
| Earnings | 52.8% | 96.3% | 42.6% | 32.1% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 4.4% | -3.2% | 0.1% | -8.1% | 1.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 15.4% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 12.5% | |||||||
2023Q2 Blended (Reported & Estimated) Earnings Growth
| Sector | July 14 | 1 Jul | 1 Apr | 1 Jan | 1 Oct | 1 Jul | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary | 28.5% | 26.6% | 26.0% | 36.7% | 49.6% | 39.4% | ||||||||||||
| Consumer Staples | 2.7% | 1.9% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 10.1% | ||||||||||||
| Energy | -46.9% | -44.6% | -36.2% | -29.1% | -27.4% | -19.3% | ||||||||||||
| Financials | 8.5% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 16.4% | 20.1% | ||||||||||||
| Health Care | -28.8% | -15.8% | -12.4% | -6.9% | -3.1% | 2.1% | ||||||||||||
| Industrials | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 11.6% | 18.0% | ||||||||||||
| Materials | -30.8% | -28.0% | -22.1% | -20.0% | -10.3% | -6.8% | ||||||||||||
| Real Estate | -5.0% | -5.1% | -3.6% | -2.3% | 0.3% | 7.9% | ||||||||||||
| Technology | -2.9% | -2.9% | -5.1% | 0.6% | 8.9% | 15.2% | ||||||||||||
| Communication Services | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 16.8% | 18.3% | ||||||||||||
| Utilities | 0.4% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | -1.6% | 8.4% | ||||||||||||
| S&P 500 | -8.1% | -5.7% | -3.9% | -0.3% | 5.3% | 10.7% | ||||||||||||
2023Q2 Blended (Reported & Estimated) Revenue Growth
| Sector | July 14 | 1 Jul | 1 Apr | 1 Jan | 1 Oct | 1 Jul | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 10.3% | 11.2% | |
| Consumer Staples | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.8% | |
| Energy | -28.5% | -25.1% | -24.0% | -22.0% | -6.7% | -3.7% | |
| Financials | 7.6% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% | |
| Health Care | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | |
| Industrials | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | |
| Materials | -10.1% | -8.7% | -5.5% | -5.6% | -2.2% | -1.3% | |
| Real Estate | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | |
| Technology | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.1% | 1.8% | 5.8% | 9.3% | |
| Communication Services | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 8.2% | |
| Utilities | 0.3% | 0.5% | -2.3% | -2.7% | -4.3% | 2.8% | |
| S&P 500 | -0.9% | -0.6% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 3.4% | 5.4% | |
Actual Results
Refnitiv
| 22Q4 | 23Q1 | 23Q2 | 23Q3 | 23Q4 | 24Q1 | 24Q2 | 24Q3 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.8% | 3.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 11.7% | 1.8% | 5.2% | |||||||||
| Earnings | -3.2% | 0.1% | -2.9% | 1.8% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 12.1% | |||||||||
- 23Q2 Y/Y earnings are expected to be -2.9%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 3.5%.[5]
- Of the 497 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 23Q2, 78.7% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 66.4% and prior four quarter average of 73.4%.
- 23Q2 Y/Y revenue is expected to be 0.5%. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 4.4%.
- 63.3% of companies have reported 23Q2 revenue above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 62.2% and an average over the past four quarters of 70.5%.
- For 23Q3, there have been 75 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 63 positive EPS preannouncements. By dividing 75 by 63 the N/P ratio is 1.2 for the S&P 500 Index.
- The forward four-quarter (23Q3– 24Q2) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 19.3. During the week of Sep. 4, two S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
2023Q2 Blended (Reported & Estimated) Earnings Growth
| Earnings $B | Earnings $B | Growth $B | Growth % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector | 23Q2 | 22Q2 | 23Q2 | 23Q2 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 40.7 | 26.3 | 14.5 | 55.1% |
| Consumer Staples | 30.1 | 27.8 | 2.3 | 8.4% |
| Energy | 30.4 | 58.3 | -27.8 | -47.7% |
| Financials | 82.1 | 74.7 | 7.4 | 9.9% |
| Health Care | 56.8 | 77.5 | -20.7 | -26.7% |
| Industrials | 43.9 | 37.9 | 5.9 | 15.7% |
| Materials | 14.2 | 19.2 | -5.1 | -26.4% |
| Real Estate | 11.9 | 12.2 | -0.3 | -2.2% |
| Information Technology | 86.4 | 82.2 | 4.1 | 5.0% |
| Communication Services | 43.3 | 37.3 | 6.0 | 16.0% |
| Utilities | 11.5 | 11.4 | 0.1 | 0.6% |
| S&P 500 | 451.2 | 464.8 | -13.6 | -2.9% |
| Sector Q2 2023 | Sept 4 | 1 Jul | 1 Apr | 1 Jan | 1 Oct | 1 Jul | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary | 55.1% | 26.6% | 26.0% | 36.7% | 49.6% | 39.4% | |||||||
| Consumer Staples | 8.4% | 1.9% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 10.1% | |||||||
| Energy | -47.7% | -44.6% | -36.2% | -29.1% | -27.4% | -19.3% | |||||||
| Financials | 9.9% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 16.4% | 20.1% | |||||||
| Health Care | -26.7% | -15.8% | -12.4% | -6.9% | -3.1% | 2.1% | |||||||
| Industrials | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 11.6% | 18.0% | |||||||
| Materials | -26.4% | -28.0% | -22.1% | -20.0% | -10.3% | -6.8% | |||||||
| Real Estate | -2.2% | -5.1% | -3.6% | -2.3% | 0.3% | 7.9% | |||||||
| Information Technology | 5.0% | -2.9% | -5.1% | 0.6% | 8.9% | 15.2% | |||||||
| Communication Services | 16.0% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 16.8% | 18.3% | |||||||
| Utilities | 0.6% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | -1.6% | 8.4% | |||||||
| S&P 500 | -2.9% | -5.7% | -3.9% | -0.3% | 5.3% | 10.7% | |||||||
2023Q2 Blended (Reported & Estimated) Revenue Growth
| Revenue $B | Revenue $B | Growth $B | Growth % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector | 23Q2 | 22Q2 | 23Q2 | 23Q2 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 471.9 | 430.6 | 41.3 | 9.6% |
| Consumer Staples | 437.0 | 425.5 | 11.5 | 2.7% |
| Energy | 308.3 | 433.7 | -125.4 | -28.9% |
| Financials | 470.0 | 422.4 | 47.6 | 11.3% |
| Health Care | 746.4 | 708.8 | 37.7 | 5.3% |
| Industrials | 389.9 | 373.5 | 16.4 | 4.4% |
| Materials | 119.4 | 136.4 | -17.0 | -12.5% |
| Real Estate | 37.1 | 35.4 | 1.7 | 4.8% |
| Information Technology | 365.4 | 365.4 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
| Communication Services | 270.4 | 261.7 | 8.7 | 3.3% |
| Utilities | 92.5 | 96.5 | -3.9 | -4.1% |
| S&P 500 | 3,708.4 | 3,689.9 | 18.5 | 0.5% |
References
- ↑ https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_063023.pdf?_ga=2.210034645.1136161000.1689606162-1317705232.1681150838&_gl=1*1du6cs7*_ga*MTMxNzcwNTIzMi4xNjgxMTUwODM4*_ga_2Q3PTT96M8*MTY4OTYyNDc5Ni4yOC4xLjE2ODk2Mjg3MjEuMC4wLjA.
- ↑ https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_063023.pdf?_ga=2.210034645.1136161000.1689606162-1317705232.1681150838&_gl=1*1du6cs7*_ga*MTMxNzcwNTIzMi4xNjgxMTUwODM4*_ga_2Q3PTT96M8*MTY4OTYyNDc5Ni4yOC4xLjE2ODk2Mjg3MjEuMC4wLjA.
- ↑ https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_070723.pdf?_gl=1*1wmluwh*_ga*MTMxNzcwNTIzMi4xNjgxMTUwODM4*_ga_2Q3PTT96M8*MTY4OTYyNDc5Ni4yOC4xLjE2ODk2Mjg4MzAuMC4wLjA.&_ga=2.213833684.1136161000.1689606162-1317705232.1681150838
- ↑ https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/TRPR_82201_20230714.pdf
- ↑ https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TRPR_82221_713.pdf