Earnings Overview: 2024 Q1
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See also: Earnings Overview: 2023 Q4 | S&P 500 Earnings Overview |
Forum: https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/q1-2024-earnings-overview/331
Estimates
S&P Global
| Operating earnings: | Income from product (goods and services), excludes corporate (M&A, financing, layoffs ), and unusual items | |
| As Reported earnings: | Income from continuing operations, also known GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) and As Reported | |
| Bottom up estimate: | Capital IQ consensus estimate for specific issue, building from the bottom up to the index level estimate | |
EPS
| QUARTER | OPERATING | AS REPORTED | OPERATING | AS REPORTED | 12 MONTH EARNINGS PER SHARE | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| END | EARNINGS | EARNINGS | EARNINGS | EARNINGS | OPERATING | AS REPORTED | |||||||
| PRICE | PER SHR | PER SHR | P/E | P/E | EARNINGS | EARNINGS | |||||||
| (ests are | (ests are | (ests are | (ests are | (ests are | (ests are | ||||||||
| bottom up) | Y/Y | bottom up | Y/Y | bottom up) | bottom up | bottom up) | Y/Y | bottom up) | Y/Y | ||||
| ESTIMATES | |||||||||||||
| 12/31/2025 | $72.60 | 12.07% | $66.68 | 12.66% | 19.02 | 20.87 | $273.98 | 13.72% | $249.60 | 14.83% | |||
| 9/30/2025 | $71.13 | 13.03% | $65.34 | 14.21% | 19.57 | 21.52 | $266.16 | 15.70% | $242.10 | 17.55% | |||
| 6/30/2025 | $67.21 | 14.36% | $61.24 | 14.87% | 20.20 | 22.27 | $257.96 | 17.59% | $233.98 | 19.13% | |||
| 3/31/2025 | $63.04 | 15.78% | $56.34 | 18.25% | 20.88 | 23.05 | $249.52 | 15.82% | $226.05 | 17.94% | |||
| 12/31/2024 | $64.78 | 20.19% | $59.19 | 23.84% | 21.62 | 23.97 | $240.93 | 12.83% | $217.36 | 12.95% | |||
| 9/30/2024 | $62.93 | 20.44% | $57.21 | 20.06% | 22.65 | 25.30 | $230.05 | 9.55% | $205.96 | 11.78% | |||
| 6/30/2024 | $58.77 | 7.17% | $53.31 | 9.74% | 23.75 | 26.53 | $219.37 | 5.42% | $196.40 | 8.50% | |||
| 3/31/2024 (4.0%) | 5254.35 | $54.45 | 3.64% | $47.65 | -1.57% | 24.18 | 27.18 | $215.44 | 7.65% | $191.67 | 9.42% | ||
| ACTUALS | |||||||||||||
| 12/31/2023 | 4769.83 | $53.90 | 7.01% | $47.79 | 20.65% | 22.34 | 24.79 | $213.53 | 8.42% | $192.43 | 11.39% | ||
| 09/30/2023 | 4288.05 | $52.25 | 3.77% | $47.65 | 7.30% | 20.42 | 23.27 | $210.00 | 3.29% | $184.25 | -1.51% | ||
| 6/30/2023 | 4450.38 | $54.84 | 17.00% | $48.58 | 13.66% | 21.39 | 24.59 | $208.10 | 1.52% | $181.01 | -5.85% | ||
| 3/31/2023 | 4109.31 | $52.54 | 6.44% | $48.41 | 5.26% | 20.53 | 23.46 | $200.13 | -4.77% | $175.17 | -11.49% | ||
By Sector
| Estimates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INDEX NAME | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 | 2023 Q3 | 2023 Q4 | 2024E Q1 | 2024E Q2 | 2024E Q3 | 2024E Q4 | 2025E Q1 | 2025E Q2 | 2025E Q3 | 2025E Q4 | 2023 EPS | 2024 EPS | 2025EPS | |||||||||||||
| Operating Earnings Per Share by Economic Sector | EPS | EPS | EPS | EPS | EPS | Y/Y | EPS | Y/Y | EPS | Y/Y | EPS | Y/Y | EPS | Y/Y | EPS | Y/Y | EPS | Y/Y | EPS | Y/Y | EPS | Y/Y | EPS | Y/Y | EPS | Y/Y | ||
| S&P 500 | $52.54 | $54.84 | $52.25 | $53.90 | $54.45 | 3.64% | $58.77 | 7.17% | $62.93 | 20.44% | $64.78 | 20.19% | $63.04 | 15.78% | $67.21 | 14.36% | $71.13 | 13.03% | $72.60 | 12.07% | $213.52 | 8.41% | 240.93 | 12.84% | 273.98 | 13.72% | ||
| S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary | $9.92 | $13.57 | $15.47 | $11.77 | $11.26 | 13.51% | $14.28 | 5.23% | $15.94 | 3.04% | $14.67 | 24.64% | $13.19 | 17.14% | $16.60 | 16.25% | $18.57 | 16.50% | $17.33 | 18.13% | $50.73 | 41.39% | 56.14 | 10.66% | 65.69 | 17.01% | ||
| S&P 500 Consumer Staples | $8.76 | $9.92 | $9.72 | $9.36 | $9.82 | 12.10% | $9.74 | -1.81% | $10.60 | 9.05% | $10.27 | 9.72% | $9.65 | -1.73% | $10.55 | 8.32% | $11.41 | 7.64% | $11.03 | 7.40% | $37.77 | 12.98% | 40.43 | 7.04% | 42.63 | 5.44% | ||
| S&P 500 Energy | $16.64 | $12.59 | $15.40 | $12.48 | $12.22 | -26.56% | $14.00 | 11.20% | $14.41 | -6.43% | $13.98 | 12.02% | $14.43 | 18.09% | $15.37 | 9.79% | $16.10 | 11.73% | $15.60 | 11.59% | $57.11 | -31.17% | 54.62 | -4.36% | 61.50 | 12.60% | ||
| S&P 500 Financials | $12.08 | $12.07 | $7.86 | $11.02 | $10.56 | -12.58% | $10.60 | -12.18% | $10.81 | 37.53% | $11.13 | 1.00% | $11.60 | 9.85% | $11.67 | 10.09% | $12.03 | 11.29% | $12.43 | 11.68% | $43.03 | 26.93% | 43.11 | 0.19% | 47.73 | 10.72% | ||
| S&P 500 Health Care | $17.97 | $16.63 | $15.64 | $15.73 | $20.07 | 11.69% | $21.55 | 29.59% | $23.00 | 47.06% | $23.05 | 46.54% | $23.84 | 18.78% | $24.35 | 12.99% | $25.26 | 9.83% | $25.21 | 9.37% | $65.97 | -15.52% | 87.66 | 32.88% | 98.66 | 12.55% | ||
| S&P 500 Industrials | $11.53 | $12.98 | $10.82 | $11.37 | $9.77 | -15.26% | $12.49 | -3.78% | $12.90 | 19.22% | $12.84 | 12.93% | $11.87 | 21.49% | $14.56 | 16.57% | $14.87 | 15.27% | $14.62 | 13.86% | $46.70 | 15.28% | 48.00 | 2.78% | 55.92 | 16.50% | ||
| S&P 500 Information Technology | $20.96 | $23.09 | $25.73 | $30.03 | $28.80 | 37.40% | $29.31 | 26.94% | $32.61 | 26.74% | $38.44 | 28.01% | $35.05 | 21.70% | $35.67 | 21.70% | $38.37 | 17.66% | $43.34 | 12.75% | $99.81 | 10.84% | 129.16 | 29.41% | 152.43 | 18.02% | ||
| S&P 500 Materials | $6.93 | $7.60 | $5.85 | $3.72 | $5.51 | -20.49% | $7.44 | -2.11% | $7.00 | 19.66% | $6.76 | 81.72% | $6.95 | 26.13% | $8.58 | 15.32% | $7.89 | 12.71% | $7.49 | 10.80% | $24.11 | -25.05% | 26.71 | 10.78% | 30.90 | 15.69% | ||
| S&P 500 Communication Services | $2.68 | $3.11 | $3.35 | $3.30 | $3.25 | 21.27% | $3.59 | 15.43% | $3.74 | 11.64% | $3.98 | 20.61% | $3.77 | 16.00% | $4.10 | 14.21% | $4.22 | 12.83% | $4.52 | 13.57% | $12.45 | 24.62% | 14.56 | 16.95% | 16.62 | 14.15% | ||
| S&P 500 Utilities | $4.79 | $4.37 | $5.55 | $3.98 | $5.12 | 6.89% | $4.33 | -0.92% | $6.15 | 10.81% | $4.68 | 17.59% | $5.67 | 10.74% | $4.72 | 9.01% | $6.77 | 10.08% | $5.01 | 7.05% | $18.70 | 21.43% | 20.27 | 8.40% | 22.17 | 9.37% | ||
| S&P 500 Real Estate (proforma pre-9/19/16) | $1.52 | $1.92 | $1.73 | $1.57 | $1.54 | 1.32% | $1.65 | -14.06% | $1.71 | -1.16% | $1.83 | 16.56% | $1.65 | 7.14% | $1.76 | 6.67% | $1.78 | 4.09% | $1.90 | 3.83% | $6.74 | -8.42% | 6.72 | -0.30% | 7.08 | 5.36% | ||
| QUARTERLY SALES PER SHARE | % CHG Q1/Q4 | % CHG Q1/Q1 | Mar-24 | Dec-23 | Sep-23 | Jun-23 | Mar-23 |
| ENERGY | -3.54% | 0.88% | $127.35 | $132.02 | $137.24 | $123.43 | $126.24 |
| MATERIALS | -0.38% | -6.35% | $61.05 | $61.28 | $63.65 | $67.01 | $65.19 |
| INDUSTRIALS | -4.58% | 1.40% | $107.91 | $113.09 | $112.44 | $112.87 | $106.42 |
| CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY | -10.61% | 1.22% | $148.47 | $166.09 | $158.97 | $160.99 | $146.69 |
| CONSUMER STAPLES | -4.67% | 1.58% | $138.23 | $145.00 | $143.78 | $137.08 | $136.09 |
| HEALTH CARE | -1.52% | 7.25% | $243.82 | $247.58 | $237.53 | $233.51 | $227.34 |
| FINANCIALS | -25.82% | -18.66% | $57.64 | $77.70 | $68.95 | $74.31 | $70.86 |
| INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY | -7.44% | 8.41% | $116.73 | $126.12 | $111.97 | $107.47 | $107.68 |
| COMMUNICATION SERVICES | -6.13% | 8.94% | $19.62 | $20.90 | $19.21 | $18.59 | $18.01 |
| UTILITIES | 13.52% | -2.67% | $39.52 | $34.81 | $37.15 | $32.51 | $40.60 |
| REAL ESTATE* | -4.62% | -1.30% | $9.56 | $10.02 | $9.59 | $9.86 | $9.68 |
| S&P 500 | -7.94% | -0.03% | $451.29 | $490.20 | $468.52 | $462.13 | $451.44 |
| QUARTERLY OPERATING MARGINS | % CHG Q1/Q4 | % CHG Q1/Q1 | Mar-24 | Dec-23 | Sep-23 | Jun-23 | Mar-23 | Dec-22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | 1.63% | -27.11% | 9.61% | 9.45% | 11.22% | 10.20% | 13.18% | 13.32% |
| MATERIALS | 49.11% | -14.86% | 9.05% | 6.07% | 9.19% | 11.34% | 10.63% | 9.26% |
| INDUSTRIALS | -9.64% | -16.16% | 9.08% | 10.05% | 9.62% | 11.50% | 10.83% | 10.46% |
| CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY | 7.46% | 12.60% | 7.61% | 7.09% | 9.73% | 8.43% | 6.76% | 5.94% |
| CONSUMER STAPLES | 10.23% | 10.54% | 7.12% | 6.46% | 6.76% | 7.24% | 6.44% | 7.26% |
| HEALTH CARE | 29.67% | 4.23% | 8.24% | 6.35% | 6.58% | 7.12% | 7.90% | 8.14% |
| FINANCIALS | 29.76% | 7.95% | 18.40% | 14.18% | 11.40% | 16.24% | 17.05% | 14.57% |
| INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY | 3.75% | 26.92% | 24.70% | 23.81% | 22.98% | 21.48% | 19.47% | 20.18% |
| COMMUNICATION SERVICES | 4.91% | 11.31% | 16.56% | 15.79% | 17.44% | 16.73% | 14.88% | 11.15% |
| UTILITIES | 13.19% | 9.70% | 12.94% | 11.43% | 14.94% | 13.44% | 11.80% | 7.06% |
| REAL ESTATE* | 2.65% | 2.47% | 16.08% | 15.67% | 18.04% | 19.47% | 15.70% | 12.48% |
| S&P 500 | 9.94% | 3.87% | 12.09% | 11.00% | 11.15% | 11.87% | 11.64% | 10.92% |
Revisions
| OBSERVATION | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | 2024E | 2025E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/31/2023 | $56.90 | $60.08 | $63.03 | $65.34 | $245.35 | |
| 6/30/2023 | $56.93 | $59.21 | $62.17 | $64.74 | $243.05 | |
| 9/29/2023 | $57.31 | $60.55 | $62.74 | $65.18 | $245.78 | |
| 12/29/2023 | $55.92 | $59.55 | $63.18 | $63.79 | $242.44 | |
| 3/31/2024 | $54.25 | $58.67 | $62.83 | $64.55 | $240.30 | $273.79 |
| Current | $54.45 | $58.77 | $62.93 | $64.78 | $240.93 | $273.98 |
| Change QTR | 0.37% | 0.17% | 0.16% | 0.36% | 0.26% | 0.07% |
| Change fr Q1,'23 | -4.31% | -2.18% | -0.16% | -0.86% | -1.80% |
Refinitiv
Industry Analyst Estimates - S&P 500 Bottom Up ($/share)
| Year | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | CY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 19.71 | 21.48 | 21.75 | 22.55 | 85.28 |
| 2011 | 23.50 | 24.14 | 25.65 | 24.55 | 97.82 |
| 2012 | 25.60 | 25.84 | 26.00 | 26.32 | 103.80 |
| 2013 | 26.74 | 27.40 | 27.63 | 28.62 | 109.68 |
| 2014 | 28.18 | 30.07 | 30.04 | 30.54 | 118.78 |
| 2015 | 28.60 | 30.09 | 29.99 | 29.52 | 117.46 |
| 2016 | 26.96 | 29.61 | 31.21 | 31.30 | 118.10 |
| 2017 | 30.90 | 32.58 | 33.45 | 36.02 | 132.00 |
| 2018 | 38.07 | 41.00 | 42.66 | 41.18 | 161.93 |
| 2019 | 39.15 | 41.31 | 42.14 | 41.98 | 162.93 |
| 2020 | 33.13 | 27.98 | 38.69 | 42.58 | 139.72 |
| 2021 | 49.13 | 52.58 | 53.72 | 53.95 | 208.12 |
| 2022 | 54.80 | 57.62 | 56.02 | 53.15 | 218.09 |
| 2023 | 53.08 | 54.29 | 58.41 | 57.16 | 222.94 |
| 2024 | 54.76 | 59.34 | 63.62 | 65.38 | 243.04 |
| Y/Y | 3.17% | 9.30% | 8.92% | 14.38% | 9.02% |
| 2025 | 63.47 | 67.74 | 71.81 | 73.35 | 276.13 |
| Y/Y | 15.91% | 14.16% | 12.87% | 12.19% | 13.62% |
| 2026 | 308.86 | ||||
| Y/Y | 11.85% |
2.7% Y/Y earnings increase for the index. And a 3.3% increase in Revenue.
