Personal Consumption Expenditure

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PCE Price Index Developments

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
Date PCE Price Index Y/Y[1] PCE Price Index M/M[2] Core PCE Price Index Y/Y[3] Core PCE Price Index M/M[4] Marker Reaction Full Release
Nov-27 2.3% 0.2% 2.8% 0.3% Muted[5] Link
Oct-31 2.1% 0.2% 2.7% 0.3% Link
Sep-27 2.2% 0.1% 2.7% 0.1% Little changed[6] Link
Aug-30 2.5% 0.2% 2.6% 0.2% Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.7% while S&P 500 futures were up 0.3% following the report[7] Link
July-26 2.5% 0.1% 2.6% 0.2% market reaction unfounded Link
June-28 2.6% 0.0% 2.6% 0.1% S&P Futures and Nasdaq-100 Futures rose 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively

following the report

Link
May-31 2.7% 0.3% 2.8% 0.3% Dow futures rose 0.2% while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 added 0.3% Link
Feb-29 2.4% 0.3% 2.80% 0.4% Dow Jones Industrial Average futures : +0.2%

S&P 500:+0.5%

Nasdaq composite: +0.9%

Link
Jan-26 2.6% 0.1% 2.90% 0.1% 0% Link
Dec-22 2.6% -0.10% 3.20% 0.1% Link
Nov-30 2.9% 0.00% 3.40% 0.10% Link
Oct-27 3.4% 0.40% 3.70% 0.30% Link
Sep-29 3.4% 0.40% 3.80% 0.10% Link
Aug-31 3.3% 0.20% 4.20% 0.20% Link
July-28 3.0% 0.20% 4.10% 0.20% Link
May-23 3.8% 0.10% 4.60% 0.30% Link
Apr-23 4.4% 0.40% 4.70% 0.40% Link
Mar-23 4.2% 0.10% 4.60% 0.30%
Feb-23 5.0% 0.30% 4.60% 0.30%
Jan-23 5.4% 0.60% 4.70% 0.60%
Dec-22 5.0% 0.10% 4.40% 0.30%
Nov-22 5.5% 0.10% 4.70% 0.20%
Oct-22 6.0% 0.30% 5.00% 0.20%
Sep-22 6.2% 0.30% 5.10% 0.50%
Aug-22 6.2% 0.30% 4.90% 0.60%
Jul-22 6.3% -0.10% 4.60% 0.10%
Jun-22 6.8% 1.00% 4.80% 0.60%
May-22 6.3% 0.60% 4.70% 0.30%
Apr-22 6.3% 0.20% 4.90% 0.30%
Mar-22 6.6% 0.90% 5.20% 0.30%
Feb-22 6.4% 0.60% 5.40% 0.40%
Jan-22 6.1% 0.60% 5.20% 0.50%

2024

January 2024

  • Headline PCE rose 0.3% in January and 2.4% on a yearly basis, both in-line with the estimates.
  • Core PCE grew by 0.4% in January and 2.8% on a yearly basis, both in-line with the estimates.
  • Core PCE and headline PCE growths for the month of December were revised down to 0.1% from 0.2%.
  • Personal income rose 1%, exceeding 0.3% estimate while spending fell 0.1%, below expectations for a 0.2% increase.
  • Stock futures were up following the report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.2%, S&P 500 gained 0.5% while Nasdaq composite climbed 0.9%[8].

2023

January 2023

US Commerce department announced that the core personal consumption expenditure rose 0.6% in January and 4.7% year-over-year. This was above the wall street expectations for a 0.5% rise in the month and 4.4% year-over-year increase. Headline Personal Consumption Expenditure rose 0.6% and 5.4%, respectively. Similarly, consumer spending rose 1.8% in January versus 1.4% estimate while Personal income rose 1.4%, higher than the 1.2% estimate. These numbers indicate that inflation remained sticky at the start of the new year. The rise mostly came from energy prices which rose 2% in January. Food prices increased 0.4% while goods and services both rose 0.6%.[9] It is believed that the "Spending was likely driven by a 8.7% cost of living adjustment, the biggest increase since 1981, for more than 65 million Social Security beneficiaries, which boosted income."[10]

  • The increase in personal income primarily reflected an increase in compensation. The increase reflected increases of $78.0 billion in services-producing industries and $22.0 billion in goods-producing industries.[11]
  • Within goods, the largest contributors to the increase were motor vehicles and parts (led by new light trucks), based on unit sales and “other” nondurable goods (led by pharmaceutical products and recreational items)
  • Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was food services and accommodations (led by purchased meals and beverages)
  • Government social benefits decreased in January, reflecting a decrease in “other” benefits that was partly offset by an increase in Social Security.
  • The personal saving rate (that is, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 4.7 percent in January, compared with 4.5 percent in December.
  • Real disposable personal income increased 1.4 percent in January and real consumer spending increased 1.1 percent; spending on goods increased 2.2 percent and spending on services increased 0.6 percent.

February 2023

U.S PCE declined to 5% on a yearly basis in February from 5.3% in January. It was expected to decline by 5.3%. Meanwhile, Core PCE dropped to 4.6% on a yearly basis from 4.7% in January. It was expected to remain flat. On a monthly basis, both headline PCE and core PCE grew 0.3%. Core PCE was expected to rise by 0.4%.

Personal income rose 0.3% versus 0.2% estimate while Consumer spending rose 0.2% versus 0.3% estimate[12].

  • Personal income increased, primarily reflecting an increase in compensation
  • The personal saving rate was 4.6 percent in February, compared with 4.4 percent in January.
  • Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were housing and utilities (led by housing) and health care (led by outpatient services)
  • Within goods, the largest contributors to the increase were gasoline and other energy goods. These increases were partly offset by a decrease in motor vehicles and parts
  • Real disposable personal income increased 0.2 percent in February. Real consumer spending decreased 0.1 percent reflecting 0.1 percent declines in both spending on goods and spending on services

March 2023

  • Personal Consumption Expenditure(PCE) rose 0.1% in March after rising 0.3% in the previous month. In the 12 months through March, it rose 4.2% versus 5.1% growth in February.
  • Core PCE rose 0.3% in March in-line with estimates and unchanged from February. Yearly, it rose 4.6%, above the 4.5% estimate but below the 4.7% growth in February.
  • The headline number was softer as energy prices slid 3.7% for the month while food costs declined 0.2%. Goods prices fell 0.2% while services increased 0.2%.
  • Personal income rose 0.3% in March, above the 0.2% estimate while consumer spending was flat as expected.

April 2023

  • Core PCE rose 0.4% in April, above 0.3% estimate.[13]
  • On an annual basis, core PCE increased 4.7% versus 4.8% estimate.
  • Headline PCE also rose 0.4% and was up 4.4% from a year ago, higher than the 4.2% rate in March.
  • Spending rose 0.8% for the month, while personal income accelerated 0.4%, both numbers were expected to increase 0.4%. Price increases were spread almost evenly, with goods rising 0.3% and services up 0.4%.
  • Real consumer spending increased 0.5 percent, reflecting increases in spending on goods of 0.8 percent and spending on services of 0.3
  • The personal saving rate was 4.1 percent in April.

May 2023

  • Core personal consumption expenditures price index(PCE) rose 0.3% in May as expected and below the 0.4% increase in April[14].
  • Year-over-year, core PCE increase 4.6%, below the 4.7% forecasted increase.
  • Headline PCE rose 0.1%  on the month and 3.8% year over year.
  • Personal spending(nominal) rose 0.1% in May, below 0.2% estimate.
  • Personal income(nominal) grew 0.4%, above the 0.3% estimate.

June 2023

  • Core PCE rose 0.2% in June in-line with Dow Jones estimate, and lower than the 0.3% increase in May[15].
  • Year-over-year, core PCE increased 4.1% versus 4.2% estimate, and below 4.6% increase in May.
  • Headline PCE rose 0.2% in June versus 0.1% in May.
  • Yearly, headline PCE rose 3%, down from 3.8% increase in May.
  • Personal income(nominal) rose 0.3% in June versus 0.4% estimate.
  • Personal spending(nominal) rose 0.5% in-line with estimates.

July 2023

  • Core PCE increased 0.2% in July, in-line with the forecast and same as in June[16].
  • Yearly, core PCE rose 4.2% in July, also in-line with the estimate but above the 4.1% increase in June[16].
  • Headline PCE grew 0.2% in July, unchanged from June and in-line with the estimate[16].
  • Yearly, headline PCE rose 3.3% versus 3.0% in June, but in-line with the estimate[16].
  • Nominal consumer spending rose 0.8% in July, above the 0.7% estimate and 0.6% recorded in June(revised up from 0.5%)[17].
  • Nominal personal income rose 0.2% for the month below the 0.3% estimate and 0.3% recorded in June.
  • Real personal income declined 0.2%[18].
  • Real consumer spending rose 0.6% for the month, above the 0.5% estimate[16].
  • Services inflation less housing and energy rose 0.5% in July, the biggest advance since January. Excluding management and investment advice, the gauge rose 0.25% month-over-month.[16].

August 2023

  • Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% in August, below the 0.2% estimate and lower than the 0.2% gain in July[19].
  • Year over year, core PCE grew 3.9%, down from 4.3% gain in July (revised up from 4.2%) and in-line with the estimate.
  • Headline PCE grew 0.4% in August, up from 0.2% in the previous month and below the 0.5% forecast.
  • On a 12-month basis, headline PCE grew 3.5%, up from 3.4% gain in July (revised up from 3.3%) and in-line with the estimate.
  • Personal spending rose 0.4%, in-line with estimates and below 0.9% (revised up from 0.8%) gained in July.
  • Personal income rose 0.4%, also in-line with the estimate but above the 0.2% gain in July.
  • Inflation in August was largely driven by energy which rose 6.1% in August.
  • Super core inflation rose 0.1% for the month after rising 0.5% in July.

September 2023

  • Core PCE rose 0.3% in September[20], in-line with estimates[21] and above 0.1% increase in August.
  • Personal spending rose 0.7%, above 0.5% etimate.
  • Personal income increased 0.3%, below 0.4% estimate.
  • Headline PCE rose 0.4% for the month, unchanged from August.
  • Year-over-year, core PCE rose 3.7%, in-line with estimate and below 3.8% in August (revised down from  3.9%).
  • Year-over-year, headline PCE rose 3.4%, unchanged from August (revised down from 3.5%).

October 2023

  • Core PCE rose 0.2% in October[22] and 3.5% on a yearly basis, both in-line with the estimates[23].
  • Personal income and spending grew by 0.2% on the month, both in-line with the estimates.
  • Headline PCE was flat in October but grew 3% year-over-year, compared to growth of 3.4% year-over-year in September.

November 2023

  • Core PCE rose 0.1% in November[24], lower than the 0.2% estimate and same as the previous month (revised down from 0.2%).
  • Yearly, core PCE rose 3.2%, lower than 3.3% expected and 3.4% in October (revised down from 3.5%).
  • Personal income rose 0.4% while and spending grew by 0.3% on the month, both in-line with the estimates.
  • Headline PCE fell 0.1% in November versus expectations to be flat.
  • Year-over-year, Headline PCE was up 2.6%, lower than 2.8% estimate and 2.9% in October (revised down from 3.0%).

December 2023

  • Core PCE rose 0.2% in December[25], in line with the estimate[26].
  • On a yearly basis, core PCE rose 2.9%, below expectations for a 3% increase.
  • Personal income fell to 0.3%, in line with the forecast while spending rose 0.7%, exceeding the 0.5% estimate.
  • Headline PCE rose 0.2% on the month and 2.6% on a yearly basis, both in line with the forecasts.

Personal Spending Developments

Real PCE [27]

Annual % Change PCE

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE


Title Personal Consumption Expenditures[28] Real Personal Consumption Expenditures[29] Real PCE: Goods[30] Real PCE: Durable Goods[30] Real PCE: Non Durable Goods[31] Real PCE: Services[32] Full Release
Billions SAAR M/M Y/Y Billions SAAR M/M Y/Y Billions SAAR M/M Y/Y Billions SAAR M/M Y/Y Billions SAAR M/M Y/Y Billions SAAR M/M Y/Y
2024-04-01 19,341 0.20 5.32 15,715 -0.05 2.60 5,437 -0.38 1.89 2,055 -0.08 2.11 3,391 -0.53 1.76 10,301 0.10 2.94
2024-03-01 19,302 0.75 5.57 15,723 0.41 2.80 5,458 0.94 2.84 2,057 0.22 2.87 3,409 1.33 2.81 10,291 0.15 2.77
2024-02-01 19,158 0.66 4.71 15,659 0.32 2.18 5,407 -0.11 0.87 2,052 0.77 1.04 3,364 -0.58 0.77 10,275 0.53 2.82
2024-01-01 19,033 0.10 4.41 15,609 -0.30 1.90 5,413 -1.33 1.06 2,037 -2.85 -0.02 3,384 -0.50 1.66 10,221 0.21 2.32
2023-12-01 19,014 0.59 5.96 15,656 0.46 3.26 5,486 0.74 4.48 2,096 1.56 8.03 3,401 0.29 2.58 10,200 0.32 2.65
2023-11-01 18,903 0.40 5.65 15,584 0.41 2.87 5,445 0.42 3.57 2,064 0.68 6.19 3,391 0.28 2.14 10,167 0.41 2.51
2023-10-01 18,827 0.19 5.09 15,520 0.15 2.09 5,423 -0.17 1.98 2,050 -0.76 3.09 3,382 0.16 1.37 10,125 0.31 2.14
2023-09-01 18,792 0.75 5.55 15,496 0.36 2.10 5,432 0.63 2.48 2,066 1.02 5.07 3,376 0.41 1.09 10,094 0.23 1.92
2023-08-01 18,652 0.30 5.42 15,440 -0.06 2.01 5,398 -0.13 2.32 2,045 -0.30 4.13 3,362 -0.04 1.34 10,070 -0.02 1.85
2023-07-01 18,595 0.60 5.92 15,448 0.47 2.52 5,405 0.89 2.91 2,051 1.30 4.80 3,364 0.66 1.87 10,072 0.26 2.32
2023-06-01 18,485 0.42 5.33 15,376 0.25 2.06 5,357 0.16 1.77 2,025 -0.04 4.27 3,342 0.28 0.43 10,046 0.30 2.21
2023-05-01 18,408 0.24 5.88 15,337 0.13 1.84 5,348 0.23 1.35 2,025 0.64 4.03 3,332 0.00 -0.10 10,016 0.09 2.11
2023-04-01 18,364 0.44 6.08 15,317 0.14 1.56 5,336 0.55 0.40 2,013 0.66 1.40 3,332 0.49 -0.14 10,007 -0.06 2.17
2023-03-01 18,283 -0.08 6.27 15,295 -0.20 1.74 5,307 -0.99 0.35 2,000 -1.56 1.96 3,316 -0.68 -0.53 10,014 0.21 2.47
2023-02-01 18,297 0.37 7.63 15,326 0.05 2.30 5,360 0.08 1.69 2,031 -0.29 4.10 3,339 0.29 0.38 9,993 0.04 2.64
2023-01-01 18,230 1.59 7.94 15,318 1.03 2.31 5,356 2.00 0.87 2,037 4.98 3.14 3,329 0.40 -0.36 9,990 0.54 3.09
2022-12-01 17,944 0.29 6.81 15,162 0.08 1.28 5,251 -0.14 -0.52 1,940 -0.16 0.21 3,316 -0.13 -0.95 9,936 0.19 2.23
2022-11-01 17,893 -0.13 6.87 15,150 -0.35 0.87 5,258 -1.11 -1.19 1,944 -2.26 -1.11 3,320 -0.48 -1.24 9,918 0.05 1.97
2022-10-01 17,915 0.62 7.83 15,203 0.17 1.37 5,317 0.32 -0.01 1,989 1.13 1.29 3,336 -0.12 -0.72 9,913 0.09 2.11
2022-09-01 17,804 0.63 8.57 15,177 0.27 1.86 5,300 0.47 0.94 1,966 0.12 2.99 3,340 0.66 -0.20 9,904 0.16 2.36
2022-08-01 17,692 0.77 8.50 15,136 0.45 1.84 5,275 0.44 0.64 1,964 0.35 3.46 3,318 0.48 -0.91 9,888 0.45 2.48
2022-07-01 17,556 0.04 8.70 15,069 0.02 1.93 5,252 -0.22 0.79 1,957 0.79 2.70 3,302 -0.77 -0.26 9,843 0.15 2.54
2022-06-01 17,550 0.95 8.95 15,066 0.04 1.68 5,264 -0.26 -1.29 1,942 -0.27 -1.99 3,327 -0.25 -0.90 9,829 0.19 3.27
2022-05-01 17,385 0.43 9.41 15,060 -0.14 2.52 5,277 -0.71 -0.47 1,947 -1.91 -3.22 3,336 -0.04 1.14 9,810 0.15 4.13
2022-04-01 17,311 0.62 9.19 15,082 0.32 2.38 5,315 0.50 -1.95 1,985 1.21 -5.85 3,337 0.10 0.45 9,794 0.22 4.74
2022-03-01 17,204 1.20 9.87 15,034 0.36 2.77 5,289 0.33 -2.38 1,961 0.51 -7.32 3,334 0.23 0.63 9,773 0.37 5.60
2022-02-01 17,000 0.66 13.72 14,981 0.06 6.72 5,271 -0.72 5.74 1,951 -1.21 4.84 3,326 -0.44 6.26 9,737 0.48 7.24
2022-01-01 16,889 0.53 12.24 14,971 0.00 5.57 5,310 0.59 3.86 1,975 1.99 2.69 3,341 -0.19 4.52 9,690 -0.30 6.47
2021-12-01 16,799 0.34 13.49 14,970 -0.32 6.88 5,278 -0.81 5.42 1,936 -1.48 3.57 3,347 -0.43 6.49 9,719 -0.07 7.65
2021-11-01 16,742 0.77 14.08 15,019 0.15 7.63 5,321 0.07 7.42 1,965 0.12 7.23 3,362 0.04 7.52 9,726 0.18 7.75
2021-10-01 16,614 1.31 13.00 14,997 0.66 7.21 5,317 1.27 6.89 1,963 2.83 6.68 3,360 0.41 7.00 9,708 0.34 7.38
2021-09-01 16,399 0.57 11.90 14,899 0.24 6.78 5,251 0.17 5.14 1,909 0.57 3.79 3,347 -0.05 5.89 9,675 0.28 7.64
2021-08-01 16,306 0.96 13.01 14,863 0.53 8.01 5,242 0.59 6.86 1,898 -0.38 4.60 3,348 1.14 8.14 9,648 0.50 8.60
2021-07-01 16,151 0.26 13.06 14,784 -0.22 8.17 5,211 -2.28 5.94 1,906 -3.82 5.14 3,310 -1.40 6.38 9,600 0.87 9.33
2021-06-01 16,109 1.38 14.84 14,816 0.86 10.04 5,332 0.56 10.38 1,981 -1.52 12.56 3,357 1.79 9.16 9,517 1.02 9.85
2021-05-01 15,890 0.23 19.91 14,690 -0.28 15.14 5,303 -2.18 16.35 2,012 -4.58 25.45 3,298 -0.72 11.58 9,421 0.75 14.50
2021-04-01 15,854 1.25 29.65 14,731 0.69 25.01 5,420 0.05 36.80 2,108 -0.36 71.51 3,322 0.28 21.78 9,351 1.04 19.45
2021-03-01 15,658 4.75 13.52 14,629 4.21 10.54 5,418 8.68 20.36 2,116 13.69 51.92 3,313 5.84 6.81 9,255 1.94 5.83
2021-02-01 14,948 -0.66 0.93 14,038 -1.01 -0.92 4,985 -2.49 8.79 1,861 -3.22 16.17 3,130 -2.07 4.96 9,079 -0.24 -5.27
2021-01-01 15,047 1.66 1.56 14,181 1.25 -0.03 5,112 2.11 11.82 1,923 2.86 20.19 3,196 1.68 7.48 9,101 0.80 -5.31
2020-12-01 14,802 0.86 0.41 14,006 0.38 -0.93 5,007 1.07 8.91 1,870 2.01 15.27 3,143 0.54 5.58 9,029 0.02 -5.38
2020-11-01 14,676 -0.18 -0.02 13,954 -0.25 -1.14 4,954 -0.42 8.02 1,833 -0.40 13.75 3,126 -0.44 5.04 9,027 -0.16 -5.29
2020-10-01 14,703 0.32 0.81 13,989 0.25 -0.29 4,975 -0.39 9.45 1,840 0.05 16.82 3,140 -0.64 5.70 9,041 0.58 -4.68
2020-09-01 14,655 1.57 0.68 13,953 1.40 -0.54 4,994 1.81 9.61 1,839 1.36 15.56 3,160 2.07 6.54 8,989 1.18 -5.13
2020-08-01 14,428 1.00 -0.67 13,761 0.69 -1.80 4,905 -0.27 7.54 1,815 0.13 14.97 3,096 -0.50 3.79 8,884 1.18 -6.04
2020-07-01 14,285 1.84 -1.29 13,667 1.50 -2.16 4,919 1.81 8.17 1,812 2.97 15.32 3,112 1.17 4.56 8,780 1.34 -6.83
2020-06-01 14,027 5.85 -2.53 13,465 5.54 -3.19 4,831 6.00 6.89 1,760 9.75 13.23 3,076 4.06 3.72 8,664 5.30 -7.75
2020-05-01 13,251 8.37 -7.60 12,758 8.27 -7.99 4,557 15.02 1.35 1,604 30.46 3.05 2,956 8.35 0.50 8,228 5.10 -12.21
2020-04-01 12,228 -11.34 -14.36 11,783 -10.96 -14.69 3,962 -11.97 -11.10 1,229 -11.75 -19.39 2,728 -12.04 -6.95 7,828 -10.48 -16.35
2020-03-01 13,793 -6.87 -3.14 13,234 -6.59 -4.23 4,501 -1.77 1.01 1,393 -13.06 -9.09 3,102 4.01 6.05 8,745 -8.75 -6.60
2020-02-01 14,811 -0.03 4.93 14,168 -0.12 3.24 4,582 0.23 4.18 1,602 0.12 6.97 2,982 0.28 2.80 9,584 -0.28 2.78
2020-01-01 14,816 0.50 5.16 14,185 0.34 3.41 4,572 -0.54 3.93 1,600 -1.35 7.31 2,974 -0.12 2.27 9,611 0.73 3.15
2019-12-01 14,741 0.43 4.91 14,137 0.15 3.32 4,597 0.24 5.33 1,622 0.66 8.19 2,977 0.02 3.91 9,542 0.11 2.40

Consumer Expenditure Survey

2022

Methodology: https://www.bls.gov/cex/tables-getting-started-guide.htm

[33]

Spending by Category

Spending Category 2019 2020 2021 2022
Average annual expenditures 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Food 13.0 11.9 12.4 12.8
Alcoholic beverages 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8
Housing 32.8 34.9 33.8 33.3
Apparel and services 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.7
Transportation 17.0 16.0 16.4 16.8
Healthcare 8.2 8.4 8.1 8.0
Entertainment 4.9 4.7 5.3 4.7
Personal care products and services 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2
Reading 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Education 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.8
Tobacco products and smoking supplies 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Miscellaneous 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4
Cash contributions 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.8
Personal insurance and pensions 11.4 11.8 11.8 12.0

Spending by Income Cohort

Item[34] All consumer units Lowest 10

percent

Second 10

percent

Third 10

percent

Fourth 10

percent

Fifth 10

percent

Sixth 10

percent

Seventh 10

percent

Eighth 10

percent

Ninth 10

percent

Highest 10

percent

Number of consumer units (in thousands)1 ......................... 134,090 13,454 13,406 13,296 13,535 13,329 13,370 13,494 13,399 13,424 13,386
Lower limit............................................................................ n.a. n.a. $15,272 $25,807 $37,117 $50,091 $64,970 $83,695 $107,055 $140,361 $199,135
Income before taxes
Mean ............................................. $94,003 $7,769 $20,636 $31,496 $43,281 $57,225 $74,067 $95,163 $122,394 $165,297 $322,973
SE.................................................. 1,231.08 361.75 234.46 380.60 378.46 455.58 537.98 651.69 957.99 792.60 5,984.44
RSE ............................................... 1.31 4.66 1.14 1.21 0.87 0.80 0.73 0.68 0.78 0.48 1.85
Income after taxes
Mean ............................................. 83,195 9,971 22,725 33,744 44,759 56,378 70,952 89,028 110,831 142,896 250,844
SE.................................................. 960.32 366.97 281.40 408.83 396.12 536.56 579.31 697.63 1,003.27 762.46 4,449.74
RSE ............................................... 1.15 3.68 1.24 1.21 0.89 0.95 0.82 0.78 0.91 0.53 1.77
Average annual expenditures
Mean ............................................. $72,967 $31,039 $34,192 $44,698 $50,578 $57,057 $66,831 $76,275 $87,675 $114,182 $167,200
SE.................................................. 902.42 1,268.15 888.95 2,724.99 854.18 1,135.99 1,351.79 1,510.64 1,374.78 2,019.51 3,927.89
RSE ............................................... 1.24 4.09 2.60 6.10 1.69 1.99 2.02 1.98 1.57 1.77 2.35

Personal Consumption Expenditure(PCE)

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the primary measure of consumer spending on goods and services in the U.S. economy.1 It accounts for about two-thirds of domestic final spending, and thus it is the primary engine that drives future economic growth. PCE shows how much of the income earned by households is being spent on current consumption as opposed to how much is being saved for future consumption.

PCE also provides a comprehensive measure of types of goods and services that are purchased by households. Thus, for example, it shows the portion of spending that is accounted for by discretionary items, such as motor vehicles, or the adjustments that consumers make to changes in prices, such as a sharp run-up in gasoline prices.

PCE measures the goods and services purchased by “persons”—that is, by households and by nonprofit institutions serving households (NPISHs)—who are resident in the United States. Persons resident in the United States are those who are physically located in the United States and who have resided, or expect to reside, in this country for 1 year or more. PCE also includes purchases by U.S. government civilian and military personnel stationed abroad, regardless of the duration of their assignments, and by U.S. residents who are traveling or working abroad for 1 year or less. [35]

Differences PCE and the CPI Indexes

The differences between the two indexes can be grouped into four categories: formula effect, weight effect, scope effect, and "other effects."

  • The formula effect accounts for the different formulas used to calculate the two indexes. The PCE price index is based on the Fisher-Ideal formula, while the CPI is based on a modified Laspeyres formula.
  • The weight effect accounts for the relative importance of the underlying commodities reflected in the construction of the two indexes. The relative weights used in the CPI are based on the Consumer Expenditure Survey, a household survey conducted for BLS by the Census Bureau. The relative weights used in the PCE price index are based primarily on business surveys
  • The scope effect accounts for conceptual differences between the two indexes. PCE measures spending by and on behalf of the personal sector, which includes both households and nonprofit institutions serving households; the CPI measures out-of-pocket spending by households. The "net" scope effect adjusts for CPI items out-of-scope of the PCE price index less items in the PCE price index that are out-of-scope of the CPI.
  • "Other effects" include seasonal adjustment differences, price differences, and residual differences. [36] [37]

References

  1. ↑ https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/pce-price-index-906
  2. ↑ https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/pce-price-index-904
  3. ↑ https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-905
  4. ↑ https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-61
  5. ↑ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/26/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
  6. ↑ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/26/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
  7. ↑ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/29/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
  8. ↑ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/28/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
  9. ↑ https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/key-fed-inflation-measure-rose-0point6percent-in-january-more-than-expected.html
  10. ↑ https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-inflation-accelerates-january-consumer-spending-surges-2023-02-24/
  11. ↑ https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-02/pi0123_fax.pdf
  12. ↑ https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/31/fed-inflation-gauge-february-2023-.html#:~:text=Key%20Fed%20inflation%20gauge%20rose%200.3%25%20in%20February%2C%20less%20than%20expected,-Published%20Fri%2C%20Mar&text=The%20personal%20consumption%20expenditures%20price,This%20is%20breaking%20news.
  13. ↑ https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-05/pi0423_fax.pdf
  14. ↑ https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/29/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
  15. ↑ https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/28/pce-inflation-june-2023-.html
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-31/key-us-inflation-measures-post-modest-gains-while-spending-jumps
  17. ↑ https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumer-spending-july-surges-124640055.html
  18. ↑ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-31/key-us-inflation-measures-post-modest-gains-while-spending-jumps
  19. ↑ https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-spending-rises-august-underlying-inflation-slows-2023-09-29/
  20. ↑ https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-10/pi0923.pdf
  21. ↑ https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/27/key-fed-inflation-gauge-rose-0point3percent-as-expected-in-september-spending-tops-estimate.html
  22. ↑ https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-11/pi1023.pdf
  23. ↑ https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/30/pce-inflation-report-october-2023-.html
  24. ↑ https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-12/pi1123.pdf
  25. ↑ https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2024-01/pi1223.pdf
  26. ↑ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/26/pce-inflation-december-2023-.html
  27. ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96
  28. ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE
  29. ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96
  30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEDGC96
  31. ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCENDC96
  32. ↑ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCESC96
  33. ↑ https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cesan.pdf
  34. ↑ https://www.bls.gov/cex/tables/calendar-year/mean-item-share-average-standard-error/cu-income-deciles-before-taxes-2022.pdf
  35. ↑ https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook/pdf/chapter-05.pdf
  36. ↑ https://web.archive.org/web/20180727125301/https://www.bea.gov/faq/index.cfm?faq_id=555
  37. ↑ https://web.archive.org/web/20180727131101/https://www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/2007/11%20November/1107_cpipce.pdf
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